11:08 – Johan No.1
Of course, forgot that the USA floated a proposal to send support for 4 billion USD that no one can stop. Could be many Abrams if their value is 1 USD, for example. There is thus a plan in case the support is not approved.
14:03 – MatsExtrude
Saw some thread about how unfortunately it doesn’t seem so simple to just write down the value; it apparently needs to be based on values already recorded.
But 4 billion dollars is not bad anyway. Probably enough for about one million shells (the older ones in storage can’t be valued that high).
14:07 – MatsExtrude
Thanks for today’s essay!
Really hope the grand campaign plan can be put into action with successful results this late spring or summer. Maybe optimistic, but it depends a lot on how material deliveries go and when the Russians reach their next low point.
15:14 – Johan No.1
Yes, it’s time for the pieces to start falling into place, have some thoughts about that tomorrow regarding the constant whack-a-mole.
15:41 – Johan No.1
Is 15:25 accurately reported or just free fantasies from United24?
If Tucker has turned sour, that is worth gold, but he has had many appearances where he absolutely praised Russia and Putin, so this would be a complete turnaround then 😀
11:06 – Johan No.1
The Lions,
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1762492559803474393?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
There are further indications that RU is planning a comprehensive mobilization of everyone alive in the occupied territories for what we discussed yesterday. If I may guess, one of Wagner’s (not Wagner anymore…) tasks in Africa is to get large-scale recruitment and training for the war underway. They are planning (possibly) another wave of mobilization but are trying to take as many as possible from other countries and occupied areas so the impact is less in Muscovite Russia. That would further indicate that they are unable to mobilize extensively in ethnically Russian areas, which we have guessed because it would lead to a revolution instead.
Peace movements have always served a function but have a fundamental flaw in thinking – they operate where they get traction in some kind of “laws are only for those who follow them” mindset. The West has ensured compliance with agreements by being persistent like weasels and assumed that Russia has followed them (well?) because Russia has been difficult to operate in. Better to have an office and salary in Sweden than to sit in a gulag in Russia. Peace movements have influence together with other organizations.
The West has largely respected entered agreements and we have no thermobaric weapons or cluster munitions (bomb capsule 90) and today thousands of Ukrainians die from TOS-1, thermite and cluster bombs. Or the US has been slow to scrap theirs so they remain and can be sent but various organizations have pointed out that they are not allowed to be sent already.
A peace initiative can only work if all parties follow it, right?
Pushing for disarmament that results in more deaths completely contradicts the purpose of the organizations’ activities.
For me, it is very clear that NATO functions as a peace promoter because it deters various countries from going to war with the countries that are in NATO – THAT is a peace initiative par excellence.
A bit like neighborhood watch against crime but with real weapons, so it is quite strange that peace movements, and others, work so hard against it.
I have no hope that a large number of organizations that have proven wrong in the Ukraine war will recalibrate, but one must admit that Sweden has thought completely right all these years despite quite a bit of domestic turmoil – if you want peace prepare for war and then a conscription defense that can only be used within the country in defense.
What we must take away from this war is that defense is every country’s absolute responsibility. Then the freeloaders with a border on the Atlantic can contribute to the outer defense going forward if the EU can agree on some annual compensation, otherwise the outer defense will wear itself out.
Saw this yesterday but how the US acted in Syria when a column of Wagner armor attacked their base is very measured – shoot back with personal weapons while the base commander calls the Russians and asks what the hell is going on – when he realizes the Russians are cheating, annihilation is ordered and hundreds of Wagner die. You almost have to look hard for a more proportionate response, right? The Russians had terror-bombed entire cities for weeks over something like that.
https://x.com/doggehhh/status/1762398457329807799?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
NATO is now complete in Europe, or when Ukraine is in it is complete, and will deter Russia from further attacks into us. It could probably mean eternal peace for the EU after this because no sane country wants to cross the border into Russia and Russia will now refrain from more campaigns into the West.
We only need to manage to return to the 1991 borders first, then it will be eternal peace.
The entire outer defense should do like Finland and the whole EU should have prepared war production, like Finland. The countries furthest from the outer defense can have brigades and other capabilities that can be moved in case of war and the EU can have some overarching cooperation, or JEF, or NATO, which has a sufficiently large task force with all capabilities for international operations.
Then, for example, the countries around the Baltic Sea should build up capabilities such as naval mine layers and missiles so they can take out RU already in the ports if it becomes a real situation or in the outlets.
Sweden will have a leading role on the northern flank together with Finland and then NO and DK chip in. The Baltic states are dependent on our support in case of conflict.
The southern flank is firmly anchored in Ukraine and in between lies Poland.
Kaliningrad will become demilitarized in some form of relation to the EU and Belarus will get its popular revolution – I put my money on that (and if I am wrong I will open Johan No.2).
When Belarus eventually moves closer to the West, Poland will take responsibility for the now much shorter border with RU that runs through Belarus.
So this is probably how it will look because anything else would be a bit suicidal and above all it would miss the best opportunity the West has had in almost 100 years to do something about the Russian problem.
We have no opinion on whether RU turns inward or not but it is our damn duty to secure the outer defense and create a threshold effect that is too high for all eternity.
The EU will solve this with a peace economy if we share the burden, if we manage to get Portugal and Spain to no longer be well-off recipients of aid.
Yesterday the document “leaked” showing that the Russians’ threshold for deploying nuclear weapons is non-existent, it can happen anytime (if they have functioning nuclear weapons and missiles that are not shot down by Patriot) and today the first tweets come that RU is starting to move its strategic nuclear forces. Only the pictures are from 2020 and community-notes rules 🤣🤣
https://x.com/simonateba/status/1762908103756878324?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
It is so absolutely obvious that this is yet another of Putin’s red lines regarding troops in Ukraine and that he is trying to rattle the nuclear weapon once more. The question to ask is why he does not go up to defcon-1 with the strategic rocket troops (or whatever they are called?).
Two points probably dominated the latest Western leaders’ meeting – the first was troops in Ukraine and there the strategic communication crashed completely and the second was whether Western weapons can be used on Russian soil and there they apparently agreed. First out was that F-16s can be used against targets in Russia with all ammunition.
Finland and I think SE have said no restrictions.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1762915727932047402?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I have a vague memory, but might be wrong, that the US said that HIMARS can shoot at targets in Russia?
We will see what France and the UK say about Storm Shadow.
My thought is that UA will also be allowed to “invade” Russia going forward – that this caveat no longer applies but that is my guess?
For those of you who studied the grand campaign plan, you know that after the “Azov strike,” all the brigades that are freed up would be pooled together to go East and Northeast, getting “inside” all prepared defenses. A defensive defense line is only that as long as the opponent hasn’t broken through at one point; after that, it becomes obsolete.
But a breakthrough is required on the southern front at one of the four attack vectors to move forward. There are a plethora of options to advance, and we have at various times discussed them in the thread – landings between Kinburn Spit – Crimea, landings in Crimea, the northern front, and revolution in Belarus.
Then we have the hornet swarm of all Western SOF, now expanded with ATESH, which is a fancy word for partisans.
Pair this with –
-frontline pre-emptive strikes.
-indirect attacks on depots, railway nodes, sabotage against the railway, hitting supplies in depth, striking the bases that lie like a string of pearls right on the border with Ukraine, which have been protected so far.
Basically the same as what was done in early autumn 2022 and during the spring offensive.
After the Belgorod raids, I have understood that RU prioritizes holding northern Luhansk because they have no border protection, and if that area falls, the exposed border with UA would become three times longer.
At the start of the offensive, a frontline pre-emptive strike rolls out with cluster munitions and drone swarms, and along a stretch of X km, a brigade is in defense, which then gets thousands of drones over it (2 million are to be produced in 2024) and is heavily targeted.
The task force is the major threat, and during the spring offensive, RU showed great willingness to aggressively strike all attempts at breakthroughs – they handle that with drones, AHKP, and specialized aircraft.
RU air is denied by F-16s and LV.
This will work perfectly because it always has throughout history. The 2023 offensive was partly delayed after Zalizhny was not allowed to carry it out in 2022 at the low point, and then the equipment was not in place – four brigades were without equipment and no specialized aircraft. At the beginning of the offensive, AHKP was a scourge, and UA managed, with the help of a small number of ATACMS, to take out many at once, but the FAB500/1500 bombers could not be reached during the spring offensive. I am still puzzled by the mines, but UA has developed something to handle them in 2024. The spring offensive thus became a dry run for the 2024 offensive, even though the purpose was to achieve the breakthrough.
The only thing really missing now is that the West sends equipment and ammunition.
Why Budanov’s rampages have gone completely silent the past +1 week is unclear to me, but I don’t like it when patterns break. He has no shortage of saboteurs, explosives, or drones at all – we’ll see.
Budanov, as said, has strong support from the USA,
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1762410060330746312?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Sixth Russian spy arrested in the UK, sixth…
https://x.com/juliadavisnews/status/1762580960283894064?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The defector Scholz goes a step further and assures that no country in Europe will send troops to Ukraine – who is he to speak for independent nations (hint: no one, and he should go sit down).
https://x.com/bundeskanzler/status/1762452584403529830?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I now expect some dirt to surface around Scholz and that his journey toward resignation has begun. It is absolutely clear that he is still holding back, and the opposition against him in Germany is presumably growing?
Macron is a bit slipperier, I want to remind, now that he has not ruled out sending troops because he also has not ruled out sending Leclerc tanks, and have we seen any Leclercs in Ukraine?
He upgraded the AMX-10 to a light tank to get around it, but never trust a Frenchman, as they say (and if they don’t say it, it is established now).
Nothing has changed – there is as much equipment and ammunition as you want, deployed and in reserve depots around Europe that can be sent tomorrow. Now Ukraine also has 50 billion EUR and can presumably buy what they need?
There are two risks here now that both we were to watch for have occurred: Ukraine is retreating, and there are reasons to assume that RU is increasing its mobilization efforts.
-The Chiefs of Defense around the West will feel they must strengthen their own countries. The Netherlands just ordered 9 howitzers, which if not intended for Ukraine, are then gone from the market for Ukraine.
-Ukraine’s next offensive will not be resourced and will achieve limited success – THEN the West will be stuck with the whole mess right in their lap.
But we are not there yet, and the signs are that Europe is starting to pull itself together and deliver what is required, and that will go a long way if UA actually does as they want within Russia’s land border – a game changer.