10:20 – MatsExtrude
Thanks!
I wonder if Scholz is craftier than one might think (and afraid of Russian retaliation), he never wants to be first at anything.
Now he suspects that he might have to send troops to Ukraine. By saying that there are already other countries with troops on site, he simply avoided being first.. A bit mean and cowardly of course..
BUT I still think it was good that he talked about it. We are so afraid to cross red lines and here it turns out that we actually have done so.
Good that it comes out.
Now we will again see the Russians ranting and whining without actually doing anything. That only makes them weaker.
We need to stand up and show that we are not cowards. The UK and FR should have openly said themselves that they have sent trainers.
They are no more at risk than the volunteer fighters who train or fight for Ukraine even if that information gets out.
10:43 – Johan No.1
How many do they have left then?
Surely the important number is missions, after the war started when the air force was heavily decimated, they stayed away for a long time.
It was probably not until 2023 that they showed up again and now they are very active.
Fewer left usually means RU becomes unwilling to take risks and that is good, the reason UA spots fewer tanks is probably because they use them more sparingly, right?
I have also heard of 3 SU-34s manufactured during 2023.
10:46 – Johan No.1
Also, these are red lines we ourselves have set and they are in conflict with international law and common sense.
If UA can move everything they have west of the Dnipro to east of the Dnipro in all capabilities, it will be a game changer and they can if the West sends in LV and customs officers from SOF.
At times like these you realize that maybe all the rumors are true?
There has been a lot about what Western capabilities exist in Ukraine over the years.
10:57 – MatsExtrude
Yes, and it’s not just soldiers you free up. If you send in troops, I’m sure that suddenly they will send top-shelf equipment to them. That would also free up a lot of materiel for Ukraine.
We knew this almost two years ago and only now are they starting to talk about it a little (so I’m afraid it probably won’t happen until another year from now).
There is probably a lot going on that we don’t know about and most of it is probably good to keep quiet about but when it comes to red lines I want to see them crossed. 🙂
14:00 – Johan No.1
People have started chanting “Putin is a murderer” at Navalny’s funeral – this is good and a positive development.
https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1763541193672085575?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
14:06 – Johan No.1
Very interesting Rikkitikitavi, you always teach something with your explanations👍👍👍
I also believe that several countries in Europe cannot see the bigger picture and are stuck on small issues like “why should we give more than X” or “what do we gain from this.” Like fighting over a seat on a sinking Titanic.
But then you just have to think one step further – how easy will it be to put together an EU defense if RU comes out victorious from this?
Good luck getting the Portuguese to lift a finger before RU is in Lisbon.
14:51 – Johan No.1
Now that Scholz has come out with it, is this the first time something concrete has been confirmed?
There are around 20,000 volunteers fighting in UA, so the line between veteran SOF or something else is hard to determine. RU says – NATO is fighting in Ukraine and the West says – we have none at all in Ukraine. At the beginning of the war, some resigned as I recall in order to be able to fight, and some veterans arrived in a group of four with full equipment.
There have been rumors that NATO officers have been present in headquarters for quite some time, I have guessed that UA over time decides more on their own but we know that Zelensky asked the USA if it was okay to fire Zalizhny.
There have been rumors that there was an analysis group in Lviv from the USA that sorted and sent targets to Ukraine at the start of the war.
We have guessed that there have been coordinators or mentors involved with the Western systems delivered so that the worst mistakes are not made.
Such things can be hidden quite effectively.
Then someone says that the entire West’s SOF is rampaging in Ukraine.
Then RU went out broadly after Mariupol with passports of Americans and Frenchmen and that many NATO officers were encircled but flown out and if there was any crash?
Again impossible to determine if it is fake, volunteers or commanders who are there as support.
There was also supposed to be an attack on Ormön with “British commandos” where RU shot down helicopters or boats, again impossible to determine if it is fake, international legion or something else.
However, it is not entirely foolish to hide everyone who is there in a capacity other than volunteers under the umbrella of the international legion if one would want to.
LW has a good point – 20,000 volunteers fighting and an ocean of volunteer organizations and medics, and others all operating in Ukraine so the blocks are really just political.
15:38 – Johan No.1
This might have been up before but wow what losses RU took in Avdiivka 😲
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1763560780203466976?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
16:01 – Johan No.1
haha, now all the dirt on Scholz is coming,
Apparently he helped the GRU agent at Wirecard to pave the way to the stock exchange.
https://x.com/sumlenny/status/1763542846739505319?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
16:41 – Johan No.1
Yes, it was really time for I..el to enter the match. They have half-flattered Russia the whole war until they got 7 October as thanks.
Before the attack, H..as was in Russia in the spring, large capital flows from RU to H..as have been revealed, presumed arms deliveries and during the attack there were Russian speakers in the videos in some cases.
And now they invite (Hah!), wait how did you not get that forbidden word 😲, those H..as to Moscow again.
Time for I..el to choose a side I think and it seems they think so too.
09:40 – Johan No.1
Was torn between leading with the failed Scholz or the losses but the losses are more fun –
The monthly summary for the short month of February is enormously positive –
-Barbarians are as close to second highest as you can really get, missing 100.
-IFV is fourth highest in the war.
-Artillery is second highest.
-Soft vehicles HIGHEST in the entire war.
-Special equipment second highest in the entire war.
LV and strv are low which signals a shortage of both which is positive – you can always replenish with barbarians but especially LV there is no production at all and they have already emptied Kaliningrad and other prioritized areas to send to Ukraine and then they removed systems in Ukraine to protect bases near the border with Ukraine when they were no longer spared according to royal decree from the morally superior West.
This is happening during a short month and when Ukraine has an acute ammunition shortage. How do you think it will look if they get all the ammunition and weapon systems they point to.
The fact that UA is getting hits on fewer and fewer tanks is reasonably the first sign that the supply has dropped sharply in a weapon category and punctures the myth that RU has infinite amounts of everything.
Everyone who has known Russia said it would go roughly like this – chaos from start to finish.
Someone said early in the thread that RU only knows one thing, if the level of violence is not enough they increase the violence until they win or crash.
It is very clear that the level of violence has not been enough and it is equally clear that they have increased everything they can.
Budanov said yesterday that Putin would prefer to freeze the war here and now – that is also very clear.
They are starting to feel the heat and then we are reasonably beginning to approach the crash zone a little bit.
Now the defector Scholz has really messed up and will probably be flayed alive until he resigns. When he went against the entire parliament and personally refused Taurus we guessed that the countdown had started and now it has reached hurricane strength and #Misstroendevotum is trending on Twitter. Someone asked how democracy works in Germany and I wonder too, if the parliament has voted something through isn’t it settled in Sweden?
https://x.com/berlin_bridge/status/1763313402456236358?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Ben Wallace got really pissed off at Scholz
https://x.com/bctallis/status/1763196527411884384?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Here someone else gets pissed off at the wannabe communist.
https://x.com/berlin_bridge/status/1763141353054069068?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The sourdough baker has thus managed to reveal that the UK and FR have had personnel on site to ensure that their missiles are not fired into Russia. Side note – geographical restriction is thus not lifted despite talk about it. UK and FR are rightly very pissed off. Who is he to out classified information?
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1763193561506287759?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
But this one is worst, bratwurst now goes out and says that negotiations are what matters after Ukraine said they will not negotiate – he has completely lost it in his strategic communication.
https://x.com/bctallis/status/1763303732475822435?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I expect him to be out pretty soon and probably some newspaper will get compromising information about his inappropriate Russian contacts to blow up big because now he has gone too far. Imagine if the gambling addict has now been tasked with crashing relations with FR and UK, who knows, but we can safely say that he on his own is well on his way to achieving exactly that. Politicians usually have much greater self-preservation instincts than this and he has also taken the position throughout the war not to support Ukraine so it is not unreasonable to consider that he has hidden motives that will surface soon.
I would get fired from my job for one of these points and the sauerkraut conqueror’s behavior is highly suspicious now that the EU has just agreed on a resolution that is very bad for Putin.
https://x.com/ehunterchristie/status/1763137726537183324?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
He looks like a vampire to me, no man you would have as a babysitter directly. Quite a high risk of being suspected of many unsolved murders if he gets an FBI profiling on him.
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1763112845888172089?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
It almost seems like there might be substance behind our guesses that RU has deployed its strategic reserve in Ukraine now because according to the thread’s healthiest participant Salad, RU has emptied Belarus of units now and units have been moved from Kupiansk.
https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1763161317030928830
This gives an indication of the losses the barbarians have taken in recent months and what remains.
Now it is up to the West to ensure that Ukraine gets ammunition and materiel BEFORE Putin can start the mobilization that we are beginning to see some signs of.
Of course he will wait until after the election but then it will be a race against the clock to retake the trenches before they are filled with Russians again.
If the West does not manage to deliver the materiel and ammunition that exists in large quantities around Europe and which is more than enough to win the war within a time window, this could get out of the West’s hands in the worst case. I do not think Zelensky could have been clearer – 2024 will decide the war.
When I paint my violent offensives that will cut through minefields like smashing a banana, there are always many who feel “never”.
If I then present Russian offensives so far – they have managed to gain ground.
It’s all a matter of getting the stacks in order and finding the violently deadly combo that wins the war.
Russia has never found the combo but they have had success when Ukraine had little ammunition.
Ukraine has already done a dress rehearsal and knows what they need for their win but yes, the West needs to supply the materiel and ammunition.
The world is not fair but I think Ukraine has played fair throughout the war – we die for you just give us the weapons to kill Russians with.
I think UA is getting so many hits on RU aircraft because their eyes into UA have deteriorated?
A-50 increases reaction time and now they are gone.
RU has thus dropped 152 FAB bombs in one day – they are going all in with this weapon because it works 😲
They ARE a wunderwaffe together with TOS-1 to knock out UA in defense – why the hell couldn’t UA have gotten these capabilities before their spring offensive?
USA has a few million thermobaric grenades and countless JDAMS.
https://x.com/ukikaski/status/1763288597463990710?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
First of all, I want to argue that there isn’t even talk of an offensive until FAB traps are denied flight time, so the F-16 is probably the critical line for further larger UA offensives (not to be confused with exploiting openings).
Maybe there are 106 SU-34s left?
https://x.com/ukraine_map/status/1763102042912969136?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Why their other ground attacks are not flying would be interesting to know, it has been brought up more than once in the thread by attentive people now.
A – positive – positive, Perpetua’s loss list and possibly a record 🤣
https://x.com/andrewperpetua/status/1763216638260793654?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
We must remember one thing here – Putin has effectively strangled all criticism of the war in Russia by imprisoning or murdering the most high-profile critics. Most recently, the blogger Murtz was murdered. Thus, there is an enormous positive bias from Russia right now and we have increasingly poor insight into the real situation. However, it is quite clear that the special operation is not going very well and conducting a major purge among debaters and opinion makers is as good a signal as any that they have started to sweat.
In the West, it is the opposite and right now Maidan 3 is being rolled out again where the last FSB-controlled traitors have outed themselves; I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if a certain head of state is revealed soon and resigns.
Throughout the war, we have had this – the West tiptoes around Putin and dares not send anything while Putin commits terrorist acts in the West, has an enormously destructive subversive activity, commits genocide in Ukraine, helps the Houthis become pirates against international shipping, carries out a massacre in I..el, takes over Africa and all the other fun things he is up to.
We have talked about the diplomatic and political steps and when various steps are unlocked – and everything has been unlocked for a long time.
At the beginning of the war, we floated the idea of taking over the guarding against Belarus and LV screen in western Ukraine. That was a total own goal when the West did not protect grain exports even though there was “famine in Africa,” which there was not and is not, but it could have been used as a reason.
Then we had Putin’s career as a pirate in the Black Sea against international shipping – the West’s proposal was to let Russia back into Swift again but then Ukraine came and chased away the Black Sea fleet for the West.
Iran is definitely moving right now and the West’s response is lukewarm at best – sink the Iranian ships in the Red Sea and the Houthis have no target coordinates.
I see a lot of positives but if the West dawdles with actual deliveries of what has been promised, there is a great risk that 2024 will slip out of Ukraine’s hands again and Zelensky has been very clear that this is the year the war will be decided. It’s time for the West to actually take this seriously now – all that needs to be done is to send weapons and ammunition and just in Europe there is more than enough in stockpiles for Ukraine to be able to win the war spectacularly. The subsidy surfers Spain and Portugal should be required to give a little back for that covid fund they are going to run a four-day workweek with – Ukrainian employees work 24/7 so that they can live in safety.