09:00 – Johan No.1
The lions
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1767217470132113715?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Russia fired 31 rockets at the Kiev area last night and all were shot down, 100%. We have no reports yet of crashes due to technical faults or shot down by EW.
So – while Ukraine is carpet bombing refinery after refinery with successful results and Russia is completely unable to stop it, the Russians’ revenge attack fails to score a single hit.
This is absolutely huge – Russia no longer has the capability to strike Kiev or well-protected areas and Ukraine can send a drone swarm into the Kremlin anytime any day of the week.
When it comes to strategic bombing, it is now March 2024 game over for Russia because Ukraine will only get more AA and more drones – another nail in Putin’s very small coffin, almost child-sized.
Now Russia’s latest move is to pull AA away from Ukraine to protect all the refineries. Almost makes you suspect there is a plan behind emptying Ukraine of air defenses 😀
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1770212020723302692?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Breaking news for me at least – the International Legion is involved in the invasion of Russia, if I may guess they have filtered some passports but that’s just my guess.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3ko4ze754r32z
Then maaaaybe the Kraken is there, unconfirmed is always best, someone was a legend in yesterday’s thread who posted that
Here you have RDK with night combat gear and a Bradley but where they are the story does not tell.
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1770536818523451664?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And as we have guessed for a week, the referendum comes like clockwork 🤣
(and according to yesterday – this is intended for provinces and minority peoples as encouragement to start their liberations).
https://x.com/ducugavril/status/1770196715557081565?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
For me this means that virtually all volunteer units of suitable nationality are involved in the invasion of Russia. Certainly also the Poles and Al Mansour with his RPG god if he has made it this far but if you handle an RPG like that you are invulnerable.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Ukrainians with Russian citizenship have also been allowed to participate and the queue must have been very long.
What we thought would happen in 2023 before the West stopped it all seems to be able to happen in 2024 instead?
I think there will be more in Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts, the number of units now engaged far exceeds the number of penetration points and they have continued after the election.
They also seem to consider that 30,000 Russians in the area is manageable, right?
RU should now concentrate defense on the five penetration points and then there will probably be new raids in other places where they have left openings.
Yes, of course they lure the Russians into kill zones (channeling terrain) and 1,500 KIA in a week is good work for the attacking side.
The number of UA units gives them quite a lot of freedom of movement and these are units with broad work experience and can fight cohesively or in patrols with tasks such as sabotage.
What is now awaited and could be exciting is if some army unit switches sides to the liberation movements – now part of my evening prayer besides that the beer does not run out and that Budanov continues carpet bombing refineries.
Then the large-size mash can risk list will explode and every FSB and Rosgvardia unit in Russia will be sent there in panic.
In time we should not be too far from popular protests in a bunch of different provinces now reasonably?
Then UA movements should follow that in the form they can manage down in Ukraine?
Everything has an expiration date and if RU gets another month to calmly handle the invasion of Russia they will of course be able to handle it all else being equal.
If large popular protests break out in many other provinces it will immediately get messy for them.
And then if Ukraine starts carrying out small or large offensives at the fronts it will get even worse.
Over a week has passed for, according to RDK information, 30,000 Russians to push them back over the border and they have not succeeded. 1,500 KIA suggests intense fighting.
Thus a separate front has opened that is handled by these volunteer units and UA handles guard duty on all other fronts.
Then I must remind of something that was pushed very hard in the thread – that the West had no ammunition to send and the other side thought the West had as much as it wanted to send. Evidently there is almost as much as you want to send from reserve stocks, right?
I don’t know how many such discussions we have had during these two years about CV90, Archer, Leo2, ammunition, the invasion of Russia, liberation deeds, offensives and all that – it all happened and those who argued that nothing existed or that Ukraine would never manage it dropped off over time.
Even Kosovo is now sending fragmentation protection to Ukraine.
https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1770392943498506434?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Everything exists in the West and the West does not know best as we always heard when we pushed our theses – what did we know against the rulers in the West and experts.
The only problem with that slaughter was that everything we guessed would come but were told were naive childhood dreams has now come just much later than it should because the West has dawdled and the West has many yellow cards.
Those who have been wrong all along are the rulers in the West and the experts but they have a portion of reality to consider and also their own careers.
But..
Countries like Poland, the Baltic states, Czechia and a few others got it completely right immediately and one could very well have followed them and not been alone.
Spain is now sending Leo2A4, seems to be in mobilization reserves but surely they are unit-equipped?
It pleases me that Europe has read the thread and accepted that the only way forward was to follow the mantra of sending unit-equipped materiel and taking ammunition from reserve stocks (Megalomania).
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1770507368993792073?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Ukraine may not get the 15,000 – 20,000 hard vehicles someone in the thread requested but they are getting a heck of a lot of fragmentation-protected vehicles right now for their next offensive, thousands.
Now it is quiet at the fronts, right (yes relatively quiet) and every day there is weapon maintenance and they are replenishing the ranks in brigades low on personnel. The brigades at active fronts rotate in one battalion at a time. This means that brigades at quieter fronts have now had months to regain combat capability and now ammunition and hard vehicles are coming.
An 11-brigade strategic offensive reserve is worth a lot, and there is offensive capability tied to every front as well.
Just having maybe 10,000 in total up at the northern front who have the right passes to enter Russia is not insignificant (There were 18,000 volunteers in Ukraine some time ago, Zelensky said, but I think one has to exclude wrong nationalities for this delicate task of violently invading Russia).
There are also 5-6 Ukrainian brigades up there that are not allowed to cross the border (right now).
I cannot comment today on the condition of the barbarian horde but we know a little –
-up in northern Luhansk, it has gone down from 125,000 barbarians, 800 tanks, 2,500 IFVs (or thereabouts) to 40,000, 500 tanks and “hundreds of IFVs”.
-the strategic reserve is depleted or at least at the fronts, they took the last from Belarus.
-At the Dnieper, the condition of RU units is terrible.
-30,000 barbarians are locked up at the northern front but I suspect they are not 30,000.
There are weak points here and there but FAB bombers must be eliminated, in my assessment, and then fighter jets become the critical line for the “major offensive” if you remember how the discussion went in 2023 when it was never allowed to be called an offensive before certain criteria were met and then when they were met it apparently still wasn’t an offensive but it started May 4, 2023.
It’s becoming clear what we’ve guessed all along – that Putin will try to mobilize 300,000, preferably from minorities and occupied areas.
Now Shoigu, the buddy, has announced a bunch of new CAA and brigades which at a high estimate is 678,000 new soldiers – I really hope Putin tries to mobilize a million men here this spring 🤩🤩
https://x.com/mrkovalenko/status/1770432112723710221?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
We will never get closer to a revolution than this.
Ukraine is still around zero degrees at night and very rainy so bad for RU combat value.
Now that it’s getting muddy they will also have difficulty getting supplies to the fronts so for a month or so more the condition of the trench-Russians will only get worse.
Sure, maybe a Swedish soldier has better formal training than a Ukrainian counterpart but do you think that’s all in this constant discussion about the Ukrainian army being poorly trained and fighting badly that I don’t like.
Now in 2024 they have work-life experience at all levels that far exceeds most of the West, maybe except the USA and many countries’ SOF.
They also have an ability to endure pretty tough situations and have managed to maintain positive thinking, problem solving, the ability to work in groups and to be a really positive team player under the absolute worst conditions since WW2.
There are very few occasions UA has conducted spontaneous flight in this war, the major Russian breakthroughs are absent. The command has, however, conducted tactical retreats where needed. Not always well managed and they have always demanded too much from the soldiers but that has probably been what was needed unfortunately because the West has dragged its feet. The fact is that many volunteers have left during these two years when it has been too much, while UA teachers, engineers and librarians have continued to fight. Two years is a very long time.
The world is not fair but imagine when UA gains access to sell their products on the EU internal market and free movement – what a powerhouse they will become with this work ethic.
Warning for Russian psyops, just want to show that it’s starting to get unpleasant and stuff like this unfortunately resonates with some. I feel this is the extension of Q…on we see now and that was dangerously popular so there is some risk that if this goes on too long it will get messy in the West.
https://x.com/jenksjackman/status/1770639908719256006?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
UA mech seems to still be able to operate
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1770429031881580975?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Likely Ukraine tried to go after fully loaded strategic bombers at Engels and it seems they hit some – testifying to excellent intelligence, right, you strike when they are fully fueled and missiles attached 😀
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1770457834859196590?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Starlink lies about not allowing Starlink in certain geographic areas, there are plenty in Ukraine now and in occupied areas. It was only when Ukraine was going to use Starlink against Crimea that it mattered, only that time.
https://x.com/beefeater_fella/status/1770029347950273020?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
It’s getting harder and harder to sit still here, the refineries are burning and RU can do nothing, RU cannot defend itself against the invasion of Russia and last night’s missile barrage was shot down 100%.
The Russian attempts at land grabs have completely failed here except for Avdiivka and a string of hard vehicles is now going to Ukraine from readiness depots or unit-equipped materiel around Europe, although much of it may be older.
The Brits who never can keep quiet have asked Ukraine not to conduct offensives this year and three countries have sent combat boats.
Now the diversion at the northern front is presumably underway.
Belarus nothing yet.
Remaining is the area between Kinburn Spit – Crimea.
And then we have all the different attack vectors at the fronts according to the big campaign plan but it is still my conviction that if the Azov strike is delivered this war is lost for Putin.
The funny thing is he can’t do anything – if he lets go of northern Luhansk there will be even more invasion of Russia and all supply routes are cut.
If he gives up the darkest Donbass, the whole purpose of the war falls apart.
If he gives up the southern front, Crimea goes.
But soon he must choose what he wants to defend.
As has been said for a while now – 2024 will be the year this war is decided, provided the West does not chicken out again but the signals are that they won’t (right now).
09:17 – Johan No.1
Combat value, perhaps, is the term.
09:48 – MatsExtrude
Thanks! Positive-positive in other words!
09:50 – Johan No.1
A lot, last night’s missile attack was with advanced missiles and 100% kill rate is good news.
No new refineries though, you always get a bit worried about that 😀
10:14 – MatsExtrude
Yes, it’s time they take out a couple more refineries soon, before the withdrawal symptoms get too bad. 🙂
13:48 – Johan No.1
And the cuticles are no more.
13:58 – Johan No.1
Interesting reasoning Skator, as a defender of the world’s best infantry I’ll throw out some counterarguments 😀
-Since UA almost broke through at Robotyne, RU started its autumn offensive over in Donbass with violent intensity. Not long after, many UA brigades were pulled away from the southern front.
-I thought the army was about 500,000 strong. Sometimes Zelensky talks about 300,000 should be demobilized but that is presumably not the whole army. The defense forces are 1 million strong including everything.
-Just when UA was about to cross the Dnieper to reinforce the breakthrough at Robotyne, RU blew up Kahkovka and crashed the party.
-Putin threatens with nuclear weapons all the time but he absolutely does not want Western troops in Ukraine, 2000 is nothing but they have crossed the border and everyone can come after that when the sluice gates have been opened.
-Yes, the minefields were a strange mistake that we will probably find out about later. We had already seen IR images from drones where you could clearly see the entire minefields so it is strange that they got stuck.
-The Marine Corps, Air Mobile, mechanized brigades, SOFs, GUR, Kraken and all the volunteer units fighting on the northern front are all at a very high level. Today the HOME GUARD is partly mechanized and they have their own reconnaissance and SOF groups and platoons. Not to forget NG 3rd Azov who are very competent.
Then there are recently mobilized brigades, newly formed that lack relevant experience.
13:59 – Johan No.1
Sorry it was SpongeBob 😐
06:58 – Johan No.1
Unclear source but the USA may have asked Ukraine to stop bombing the refineries 😡
https://x.com/faytuks/status/1771044223090929918?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
07:35 – MatsExtrude
I think crude oil prices should rather decrease, at least initially when Russia is forced to sell more. In the longer term if they have to import oil products like gasoline and diesel, prices will probably rise.
But of course, if you see refineries being knocked out you think of shortage, shortage normally gives higher prices and if the market believes that it will be so regardless..
I think Ukraine should ignore what the USA says as long as the USA doesn’t get its act together with support. Knocked out refineries can in the long run be decisive in the war if it becomes extensive enough.. The West probably has an easier time handling higher prices than Russia can handle reduced production.
07:38 – Johan No.1
Exactly, the USA’s motive is HIGHLY unclear 🧐
First the UK’s MoD who doesn’t want UA to go on the offensive this year and now the USA who wants to stop the attacks on the refineries.
If UA pulls out of Belgorod it’s 2023 all over again 😐
07:39 – Johan No.1
Keeping my fingers crossed that ua pushes on as you say.
07:40 – Johan No.1
BUT it is a sign if anything that Putin is wounded.
07:46 – Johan No.1
Defmon started up 👍
08:50 – Johan No.1
The night’s missile attack was enormous.
Several hydropower plants were targeted.
https://x.com/friaukraina/status/1771074252910788765?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
08:51 – Johan No.1
At the same time as the USA asks Ukraine to stop droning Russia – what a damn fiasco 😡😡😡😡
15:26 – Johan No.1
The sound of the Kinzhal missile
https://x.com/cirnosad/status/1771148868983640544?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
15:27 – Johan No.1
This is what the Kinzhal missile sounds like
https://x.com/cirnosad/status/1771148868983640544?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
08:23 – Johan No.1
Interesting that UA shot down all 31 rockets, Kiev is reasonably impenetrable.
Let’s see what the wreckage tells us but it’s not unreasonable that they are newly manufactured.
31 is a bit low so I wonder what the total was including those crashed due to technical faults and shot down by EW weapons.
Anyway – Ukraine shot them all down while Russia cannot protect itself against drone swarms. Not a Hiroshima moment yet maybe but hugely significant.