11:29 – Johan No.1
Nice that everything is being uncovered now, they have bribed all sorts of people through the classic of giving lectures for astronomical sums or otherwise paying them.
If one had the energy, one could always go through the suspect’s bookkeeping and would surely discover larger payments to the person’s own company that roughly coincide in time with that person’s voting or opinion-shaping on certain issues.
The tax agency usually tears people apart for less and if one has been a loyal pro-Russian who could influence decisions and opinions it is worth a lot to the Russians.
For example, the best way to clip the wings of a defense force is to get the decision-makers to severely underfund it…
11:36 – Johan No.1
I didn’t mean that the tax agency would be politicized but that some investigative journalist would start taking their job seriously so there is no misunderstanding.
12:45 – Johan No.1
The defector announces that he refuses Taurus again because then there will be war between RU and NATO.
Is Taurus more escalation than F-16, than Storm Shadow, than French troops in Ukraine 🤬
Scholz has run out of reasons and then it remains that he is influenced by pro-Russians in his party or has switched to the dark side himself.
18:27 – MatsExtrude
👍 Maybe something from your bubble list will come true in the end!
Time to start scraping rust and repainting the “boat” before the cruise to the Black Sea?
18:30 – MatsExtrude
The tax agency is not to be messed with, it would be great if they could start investigating suspected Russian influence operations.
18:37 – MatsExtrude
What a klutz he is!
Good that Germany contributes a lot with many other things, otherwise it would have been really embarrassing!
20:36 – Johan No.1
Gripen on the way?
https://x.com/kyivindependent/status/1773416713926606859?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
21:36 – MatsExtrude
Hope so!
10:39 – Johan No.1
They needed North Korea and Iran’s active support, they need volunteers from Africa and Asia and they need China’s support in the shadows to manage this war.
The by far biggest problem is that the West never fully supports Ukraine.
As soon as things start going well the West starts screaming and Ukraine must stop bombing refineries or invading Belgorod.
When they are about to encircle the entire VDV, Putin manages to make some deal with the USA where he threatens with nuclear weapons.
The West is the brake block in this war, Russia has been completely awful throughout.
11:13 – Johan No.1
This is not often seen and I have still worked in Africa since 2006 – for a few months the contractor (Belgian dredging contractor) has tried to get access to an area they are supposed to fill with sand, which they are entitled to according to the contract, but it has been a flat no. It ended with the client asking us to send an instruction to the contractor to demobilize a large TSHD dredger, of two, “immediately”. The implications for the contractor are millions of USD in losses. Five days after we sent the instruction to the contractor, everything was resolved and at yesterday’s meeting the client threatened the contractor with a penalty if they did not start filling said area with sand by Monday at the latest – things move very fast in West African hockey 😲
It also continues to go terribly for Putin, to say the least, terribly. He is losing his secret cards one by one here and now the latest is a very high-ranking Polish general caught red-handed. The West has also found ways around Germany and the USA and you almost hear a cry for help from Ukraine as they are drowning in ammunition and materiel right now.
https://x.com/mrkovalenko/status/1773173947346878654?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
One more piece regarding the terror attack was that the attackers were filmed on site on March 7 and it was guessed that they would strike the Shaman concert on March 9 (I think).
That was before the election and would have been negative for Putin but now it happened after the election instead for some reason.
If it is a false flag against Putin, information should come out bit by bit that slowly dismantles his narrative.
Putin was initially silent and before that had first gone out and said that the USA was wrong – there would be no terror attack, then he tried to make the best of the situation and blame Ukraine.
Now Lukashenko himself has managed to say that the terrorists were on their way to Belarus but were not allowed to enter. He has gotten where he is by being as cunning as an arctic fox.
And Russian social media is overflowing with various theories, all negative for Putin – he has completely lost control over the narrative.
At the very least, this signals a poorly prepared false flag where everyone deviates from the script.
And if it is the opposition trying to move, then security services are immediately involved.
Regardless of the options, there should be arrests over this.
What we can be absolutely sure of is that Putin knows how things stand, either he was informed or he was not informed and considering his speech and how uncertain he looked, there is a possibility it was the latter.
Or it is absolute incompetence on historic levels even for the Russians and that is not much worse.
What happened to the enormous mobilization?
Every week that passes is a lost week for the Russians.
As is well known, I am of the opinion that Putin cannot carry out any mobilization of a million men but it seems they will try with 300,000 and primarily from occupied areas and minority regions in Russia and then trick conscripts and now reservists have been mobilized as well, right?
I guess it will turn out that these minority areas are now very reluctant to be mobilized and that it is worth quite a lot to avoid it so there will be unrest but we are not quite there yet.
Yesterday Landsorten posted that Ukraine is increasing weapons production twentyfold in 2024 compared to before the war.
Besides the million drones, Ukraine manufactures its own long-range missiles, its own wheeled howitzers, its own Pbtg and they license-produce the Germans’ latest IFV – Lynx and some others.
-They also manufacture ammunition and at least GRK tubes I have seen.
-They also take BMP and BTR chassis where they put on new turrets with more modern weapon stations.
The only things they probably do not manufacture are MBTs and advanced aircraft.
Then they have help from all over Europe to service all materiel, both their own and donated, and get a lot of work out of their weapon platforms.
The Russian team seems to put vehicles out of service at the slightest technical fault but maybe in these times of shortage they have tried to improve.
Now some USA criticism,
When we heard the rumor that the USA asked Ukraine to stop bombing refineries, the undersigned believed there was truth in it and it seems to be true – I give myself credit.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3koqhgxxvxz26
The USA has also gone out and criticized Macron for his newfound energy, completely shameless.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1772903715835437416?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Then the reason the F-16 was delayed so long was that the USA held back. Are they holding back the Gripen too?
https://x.com/treaschest/status/1772680697649516755?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And then there are 3,700 Abrams in storage gathering dust while UA got 30..
https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1773204231899562310?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Not many probably believed the support package would not be fully voted through in April but Biden has been able to do an enormous amount outside this support package. 4 billion USD was frozen and he has had several other ways to send aid so what we see from the USA is the administration’s intention – to slow down as much as possible. ATACMS and cluster munitions as well as that batch of Bradleys via a third country almost seem to have been a protest from the Pentagon.
Personally, I feel that the USA acts completely selfishly without a thought for the EU or Ukraine in this war. You might not condemn them to the gallows for that but if you want to be the top of the pyramid and world police, you have to act accordingly. The USA seems to have joined forces with Germany which also slows down and Germany wants to be the EU’s top dog.
I see signs that countries in Europe have broken loose and are running their own race and especially the countries in JEF have acted in consensus on many issues which is nice.
USA and Germany can definitely lose a lot of status points after this.
I also see that China – EU could get significantly improved relations if China plays its cards well. So far they have been reasonable but they could find a win-win with the EU at the expense of the USA. What would the USA do about that?
Thus, the USA is playing a high-stakes game together with Germany and the USA is going hard against China right now. The EU could perhaps decide to do what is best for the EU for once?
There are many indications on this, here that RU fuel production is down 14% year on year.
https://x.com/jakluge/status/1773084536114483589?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Then Gazprom’s profit is down 43% compared to last year.
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1773154406982398195?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Here is the import of fuel from Belarus to Russia.
https://x.com/tendar/status/1773072118739091474?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Reuters believes that refining has decreased by 400,000 barrels per day
https://x.com/officejjsmart/status/1772410833747735018?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Then Switzerland has started closing Russians’ bank accounts and this must really sting for small to large size mash tank oligarch.
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1773044595439317229?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Just these links signal that the Russians are really seriously on the decline.
Everything is coming too fast now and we are still on the upward curve – invasion of Russia, strategic bombing of Russia, terrorist attacks in Russia and possibly also internal conflicts in Russia and everything will increase.
I would be very surprised if there are no disturbances in a bunch of provinces soon, very surprised. Now all the internal troops are supposed to go to Moscow to protect the capital against new attacks and that must be the opening the provinces have been waiting for, otherwise I give up hope for the freedom-thirsty minority peoples.
That Ukraine will launch an offensive within not too long is clear even if they keep quiet about this year’s campaign plan. All train transports with heavy vehicles are delivered for a purpose but it’s good that the West has stopped announcing what they send.
The Russians can piece it together anyway but better if they have to work and they surely miss quite a lot.
When has Putin’s circle had enough?
When has the opposition gained the upper hand?
When have the rebels had enough?
It is very clear to me that Putin et al are troubled now. It is simply sad for them when they no longer managed to control the West so the game was rigged and now they are forced to fight Ukraine on equal terms.
You almost have to look hard to find a more pointless war than this.
It is very clear that the USA has acted against Ukraine’s and the EU’s interests throughout the war and that there is truth behind the rumors we have consistently heard.
The same applies to Germany but the positive thing is that the lid has been lifted off the jar and that it is now exposed, and that the other Western countries have decided to go against the USA and Germany.
That is probably the charm of democracies, that it is okay to do so.
Weapons and ammunition now come from reserve stocks and unit stocks and that Spain has been made to send 50 Leo2 is sensational. After my years living in Portugal I can calmly say that it is outside the perpetrator profile.
Germany is also sending 10,000 shells from their reserve stocks but it’s almost embarrassing to announce it but for the archive I want to show that it is from reserve stocks.
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1773088773309424062?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Turkey delivers 116,000 shells to UA during 2024.
https://x.com/colbybadhwar/status/1772979598818460106?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Here you have the number of tanks delivered during 2022 and 2023 – I maintain that I believe UA is now on par with RU in number of tanks and above all they are light years better in targeting.
https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1773041466203373761?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I also saw today’s Accentman – my twin, and got confirmed what I suspected. UA is working hard on counter-battery fire and they have a drone umbrella that takes out a lot in the rear so the losses we see in the daily loss list are front-near pre-emptive artillery and logistics function suppression.
Our thoughts in January about a spring offensive (or whenever it comes) are starting to look reasonable but how we stand with the critical line is a bit trickier. Ammunition seems to have arrived and will continue to arrive, heavy vehicles have come and will continue to come so probably the fighter jets are the critical line and the reports are still for summer. As a positive-positive I hope they are already in Ukraine and will sweep away the FAB bomb droppers in a big spectacular blast but I have started to learn that with the West it is never good news. And the FAB bomb droppers must go first is my guess.
Ending with a positive-positive, things are slowly starting to move in Belarus
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1772632252666507515?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And this one, Putin is standing and blinking like crazy. He is a misunderstood victim. Things are going well now 🤣🤣
https://x.com/marionawfal/status/1773128542106116294?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w