2024-04-27 -

12:08 – Johan No.1

First it was the anniversary, then the election, and the final date May 9th when we guessed this winter that it would get lively. Ukraine did not disappoint at the time of the election, it turned into an explosively fun week, invasion of Russia, dazzling fireworks at many refineries and other fun stuff.

It is incredibly liberating that Ukraine last night once again carpet-bombed at least three refineries in the Krasnodar region (I think) 😅
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kr3qjcwjsj2t

According to Defmon’s map, there are two new refineries, I think Ilsky has been carpet-bombed before, I have it as a question mark on my list. With reservation for the names.
https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Refineries/Refineries

Then the Russians made an embarrassing attempt at terror bombing and Ukraine shot down 21 missiles (63%) – that should reasonably mean that they have topped up their missiles for their LV systems again now, I think?
Then crashed missiles or missiles knocked out by EW are not counted. At one point, Ukraine confirmed that 20 missiles were brought down with EW weapons.

Recently, I have seen tweets flying by where it is the “Buryat liberation movement” speaking out or other liberation movements. The Khalinousky regiment has also become a liberation movement now.
I think things are simmering more and more in the republics in the Russian Federation inhabited by minority peoples.
Russia is increasingly desperately and aggressively trying to recruit citizens of these republics to die in Ukraine. Then they are probably the first to get worse budgets and Moscow probably tries to milk them in other ways for what they have, one can guess.

And on the other side, the West really waited until midnight before they started delivering what was needed. It is with some resignation that one sees all the places RU is advancing small distances right now – completely damn unnecessary and they would not have advanced a meter if UA had ammunition. You all remember all the advances with up to 30-50 vehicles that were knocked out long before they could even see the attack targets in sight. That should have been the case now too but the West decided not to deliver anything and then suddenly deliver everything. There was no consequence analysis and if you go back to earlier statements – completely illogical.

Then there was nothing to send but when they decided to send, there is plenty. There were also some in the thread who firmly claimed that the West had neither ammunition nor vehicles – it would be fun to hear from them again what they based their lies on.

I find the arrest of the deputy defense minister interesting, a bit like Billström and Stenegard being arrested one morning and shoplifting given as the reason – maybe things are simmering in the finer salons too?
You don’t need a psychiatry degree to understand that there is a good correlation between increasing pressure and a luxury-marinated piñata. What has increased the pressure the most throughout the war is probably the knocked-out refineries.

Russia has still not mentioned it with a word today and yet the West screams blue that Ukraine must stop – it hurts a lot in the Russian soul to see all the refineries go up in smoke.
I think we are slowly approaching the boiling point and a violent hurricane pre-fight combined with a neat offensive should work wonders for the Russian will to continue trying to conquer Ukraine.

Then I think we have soon come full circle – mobile warfare became static war and the only way to break the static is with heavy vehicles – a bit like the first tanks during WW1 but this time it will quickly be shrapnel protection. It is important to deliver the shooters in the defense system quickly and intact and then the vehicle can be knocked out. So there is no need for super expensive tanks, all kinds of shrapnel protection will do.

This is something we have discussed for a long time, Russia produces almost nothing new but modifies vehicles. T80 and T72 are just modifications and one can suspect that most of the T90 is also modification. So the 400 decent vehicles they produced in 2023, more than 300 old vehicles disappeared from the depots.
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1781270062348792060?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Here you have the number of self-propelled guns in Russian depots. The freshest have been taken first so presumably the older manufacturing years remain in the depots.
https://x.com/highmarsed/status/1780966128178663678?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

The Russians’ LNG2 export port in the Arctic exports nothing anymore
https://x.com/blangerrick/status/1779994781541662829?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

50% of the Iranian missiles shot at I…el crashed due to technical faults.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1779619673409032361?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

On April 10th, Loyd Austin actually also said that UA (preferably) should not attack refineries.
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1777770699265818717?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

And Kamala Harris spoke directly with Zelensky in February and asked them to stop bombing refineries
https://x.com/realcynicalfox/status/1779914898580836625?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Look at this spider web of Russian influence sites – they are good at this.
https://x.com/maestroholubo/status/1777281185913180316?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Warning for unknown source but this claims that another ship lost control in NY near a bridge
https://x.com/johnkonrad/status/1776786983097966862?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

RU has made “thousands” of attempts to sabotage Europe’s railway network.
https://x.com/freddyjonssonh/status/1776313704499339465?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

An unconfirmed rumor, best among all other unconfirmed rumors, that UA would be allowed to join NATO in exchange for them giving up lost territory. If that has been the case, the West has really tried to meet Putin halfway…
https://x.com/1neiln63/status/1776323552712552918?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Chasiv Yar will be this year’s flytrap
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1775984879651504250?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

There is also an active rebel and liberation movement in Iran, which is interesting.
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1775694757903138975?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1775655195524948053?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Here Budanov says that the Kerch Bridge is toast
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1775433036626112768?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

With last night’s attack on refineries, Ukraine has shown me that they are now doing what is best to win the war and that should scare Putin enormously because he no longer has a leash on Ukraine from the West.

It is precisely the refineries that the West collectively (except Macron) has protested the most against while Russia has not mentioned them with a word, but Ukraine is running its own race now.

Refinery capacity is quite central to Russia’s economy, yes they can export oil but refined products bring in more revenue and they have spent huge sums building up this capacity which Ukraine is now destroying one distillation tower at a time.

Joyful and – positively – simply positive that the distillation towers are burning again.

13:51 – MatsExtrude

Thank you!

Taking out refineries is absolutely right and could be what decides the war. I get euphoric every day I see that they have succeeded.

I am a bit more hesitant about mech battles in the first wave before breaking through the initial defensive lines. Of course, it can work around Avdiivka where the Russians have advanced and haven’t had time to dig in.

I believe that artillery in enormous quantities is what matters, exactly what has been the Russians’ success factor.

Sad to have to pulverize everything but with all the FPV drones, I think it’s difficult to succeed in any other way.