I think that losses of tanks vs. armored personnel carriers clearly show that there was substance behind the expression “snorkorta pĆ„ pansar” (shortening on armor) that someone in the thread usually writes.
If losses of armored personnel carriers are high, it is a mechanical failure but without tank support. Earlier in the war, RU has always used tanks according to the manual, and a qualified guess is that they have been forced to adjust this due to acute shortage.
We also know that last autumn the units at the Dnieper front started to make efforts to recover abandoned vehicles, which was also new ā previously they abandoned the materiel.
There is some kind of concern that the Russian supplies are “endless,” but what could be a better counterargument to that worry everyone seems to feel than that they have a shortage of something as critical as tanks?
According to everyone who knows their stuff, the Russians should be able to hold out for several more years, but what says they won’t also run short of artillery and armored personnel carriers?
Ukraine has already broken the back of the Russians’ artillery counter-battery fire, we know that, but unfortunately, they have partly managed to overcome it with reconnaissance drones and drones.
They also managed to replace the artillery with FAB bombs.
Returning to the fact that the West treats this war as a regional/local conflict while Putin and Russia are at full war with the entire West.
I often return to the enormous Russian subversive activity that simply sounds too incredible for many. It is a prioritized state function and has two purposes: partly the involved enrich themselves enormously and then destabilize the West.
The latest was when Swedbank was infiltrated and at least I remember that the USA gave them a hefty fine, so there must be something to this.
Then Russia is supposed to roll out a wave of sabotage in Europe, but for those of you who remember, ammunition depots with Eastern Bloc calibers have exploded for several years, I don’t remember when the terrorist attack was in Bulgaria. It was naturally because the Russians thought the West would abandon Ukraine so they only needed to go after the depots with Eastern Bloc calibers.
Now that the West is sending everything they can, manufacturing in the West has begun to suffer from fires and technical faults.
Some Baltic state reported that there have been “hundreds of sabotages” against the rail network in Europe, and at least I consider that the winter of 2023 had suspiciously many technical faults in all nuclear power plants ā many were down with technical faults and the famous technician here who forgot a wrench. Nuclear power will probably never be publicly disclosed as it is too sensitive, so that will have to be a guess š
Then we had all the swastikas against J..ars which was an FSB operation. I have actually never understood how FSB, GRU, and SVR divide this among themselves; all operate abroad and they seem to overlap in a bit of everything, a bit like a free market in subversive activity where the best sabotage gets the contract.
The Quran burnings also had Russian fingerprints and drug trafficking has always been a prioritized Russian activity along with promoting serious organized crime where they arm gangs and supply them with drugs.
In certain geographical areas in Sweden and certain activities, it has become “system-threatening.” For example, the culture of silence in Gothenburg municipality around the criminal families who get everything they point at and never face consequences, which was in the media a few years ago. The latest was that the police leak information and a seizure of 1.5 tons of cocaine (was it?).
When criminals’ financial muscles and violent capital increase, civil society finds it difficult to resist, and if the monopoly on violence cannot defend itself, the defense against crime erodes. Since Russia has this as a state-prioritized function, one can guess they are involved in this.
It has always been my opinion that some of these bombings have been against employees within the police, judiciary, municipalities, and companies where threats force through their demands. There is no shortage of burned-down restaurants.
We have come a long way from the tired motorcycle gangs of the 90s š
We have the anti-terror legislation after 9-11 and Russia is already classified as a “state sponsor of terrorism” by the EU and they were behind October 7, so the law is fully applicable.
It should therefore be possible to do the same with all those who do Russia’s bidding as those who work for ISIS or Al Qaeda in Europe?
Why this is not done is a mystery to me because the influence is extensive, but then again, I am just sitting in my parents’ basement playing Rise of Nations.
This is highly interesting, Putin is starting to feel so pressured that he has ordered exercises with the strategic nuclear forces, including in Ukraine. Feels a bit high-risk over this now when Budanov’s drones reach half of Russia, but it is naturally an attempt by Putin to get the West, and Ukraine, to stop winning the war against him. Putin has not yet digested the audacity that Ukraine defends itself. https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3krsnufe4il2t
Continuing my ammunition discussion, yesterday it was only Scranton that now manufactures 36,000 shells per month in the USA, one facility among several š§
Then the French have all their ammunition production for Ukraine until otherwise stated, 100%
In Bulgaria, Eastern Bloc ammunition is manufactured and I am quite sure I saw another country that has also started manufacturing.
Then not to forget Ukraine themselves who now also manufacture 155mm ammunition along with all Eastern Bloc calibers.
I don’t know where the 10,000/day comes from but during the spring offensive Ukraine fired 6,000 ā 7,000 per day and that was quite a reasonable carpet of death?
Add to that the drone weapon which is now heavily expanded.
I believe they have enough for violent artillery bombardment going forward and this is new production so add the 1.5 ā 2 million (or more!) shells from reserve stocks that are on the way.
11:42
The Lions
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1786380291604447576?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I think that losses of tanks vs. armored personnel carriers clearly show that there was substance behind the expression “snorkorta pĆ„ pansar” (shortening on armor) that someone in the thread usually writes.
If losses of armored personnel carriers are high, it is a mechanical failure but without tank support. Earlier in the war, RU has always used tanks according to the manual, and a qualified guess is that they have been forced to adjust this due to acute shortage.
We also know that last autumn the units at the Dnieper front started to make efforts to recover abandoned vehicles, which was also new ā previously they abandoned the materiel.
There is some kind of concern that the Russian supplies are “endless,” but what could be a better counterargument to that worry everyone seems to feel than that they have a shortage of something as critical as tanks?
According to everyone who knows their stuff, the Russians should be able to hold out for several more years, but what says they won’t also run short of artillery and armored personnel carriers?
Ukraine has already broken the back of the Russians’ artillery counter-battery fire, we know that, but unfortunately, they have partly managed to overcome it with reconnaissance drones and drones.
They also managed to replace the artillery with FAB bombs.
This one is PRO-RUSSIAN but it looks like an M113 and should then be a Ukrainian evacuation where the Russians get a direct hit with short reaction time ā that is not good.
https://x.com/squatsons/status/1787079939977851189?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Returning to the fact that the West treats this war as a regional/local conflict while Putin and Russia are at full war with the entire West.
I often return to the enormous Russian subversive activity that simply sounds too incredible for many. It is a prioritized state function and has two purposes: partly the involved enrich themselves enormously and then destabilize the West.
The latest was when Swedbank was infiltrated and at least I remember that the USA gave them a hefty fine, so there must be something to this.
Then Russia is supposed to roll out a wave of sabotage in Europe, but for those of you who remember, ammunition depots with Eastern Bloc calibers have exploded for several years, I don’t remember when the terrorist attack was in Bulgaria. It was naturally because the Russians thought the West would abandon Ukraine so they only needed to go after the depots with Eastern Bloc calibers.
Now that the West is sending everything they can, manufacturing in the West has begun to suffer from fires and technical faults.
Some Baltic state reported that there have been “hundreds of sabotages” against the rail network in Europe, and at least I consider that the winter of 2023 had suspiciously many technical faults in all nuclear power plants ā many were down with technical faults and the famous technician here who forgot a wrench. Nuclear power will probably never be publicly disclosed as it is too sensitive, so that will have to be a guess š
Then we had all the swastikas against J..ars which was an FSB operation. I have actually never understood how FSB, GRU, and SVR divide this among themselves; all operate abroad and they seem to overlap in a bit of everything, a bit like a free market in subversive activity where the best sabotage gets the contract.
The Quran burnings also had Russian fingerprints and drug trafficking has always been a prioritized Russian activity along with promoting serious organized crime where they arm gangs and supply them with drugs.
In certain geographical areas in Sweden and certain activities, it has become “system-threatening.” For example, the culture of silence in Gothenburg municipality around the criminal families who get everything they point at and never face consequences, which was in the media a few years ago. The latest was that the police leak information and a seizure of 1.5 tons of cocaine (was it?).
When criminals’ financial muscles and violent capital increase, civil society finds it difficult to resist, and if the monopoly on violence cannot defend itself, the defense against crime erodes. Since Russia has this as a state-prioritized function, one can guess they are involved in this.
It has always been my opinion that some of these bombings have been against employees within the police, judiciary, municipalities, and companies where threats force through their demands. There is no shortage of burned-down restaurants.
We have come a long way from the tired motorcycle gangs of the 90s š
We have the anti-terror legislation after 9-11 and Russia is already classified as a “state sponsor of terrorism” by the EU and they were behind October 7, so the law is fully applicable.
It should therefore be possible to do the same with all those who do Russia’s bidding as those who work for ISIS or Al Qaeda in Europe?
Why this is not done is a mystery to me because the influence is extensive, but then again, I am just sitting in my parents’ basement playing Rise of Nations.
This is highly interesting, Putin is starting to feel so pressured that he has ordered exercises with the strategic nuclear forces, including in Ukraine. Feels a bit high-risk over this now when Budanov’s drones reach half of Russia, but it is naturally an attempt by Putin to get the West, and Ukraine, to stop winning the war against him. Putin has not yet digested the audacity that Ukraine defends itself.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3krsnufe4il2t
Continuing my ammunition discussion, yesterday it was only Scranton that now manufactures 36,000 shells per month in the USA, one facility among several š§
Only Rheinmetall (the group) is supposed to send “hundreds of thousands” of 155mm shells to Ukraine during 2024.
200,000 is “a couple hundred thousand” so at least 300,000?
https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1787178618751156643?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Then the French have all their ammunition production for Ukraine until otherwise stated, 100%
In Bulgaria, Eastern Bloc ammunition is manufactured and I am quite sure I saw another country that has also started manufacturing.
Then not to forget Ukraine themselves who now also manufacture 155mm ammunition along with all Eastern Bloc calibers.
I don’t know where the 10,000/day comes from but during the spring offensive Ukraine fired 6,000 ā 7,000 per day and that was quite a reasonable carpet of death?
Add to that the drone weapon which is now heavily expanded.
I believe they have enough for violent artillery bombardment going forward and this is new production so add the 1.5 ā 2 million (or more!) shells from reserve stocks that are on the way.