12:08 – Johan No.1
Still sitting and pondering this – everything is connected as usual.
1. Macron throws the script and goes rogue
2. Putin threatens with nuclear weapons
3. Xi visits Orban and Macron but not Russia on May 9, or Putin’s inauguration.
4. Putin goes to China.
For me, who is mildly accused of having white blinders when it comes to China, if it had been up for discussion they would have announced that China will give Russia military support, offensive weapons and so on.
I don’t think China is interested in that and then it’s all just empty words, if Russia doesn’t get very large military support from China they are stuck where they are.
12:09 – Johan No.1
I’m starting to suspect that Macron is sniffing the morning air and future trade with China.
12:28 – Johan No.1
The Russian successes at Avdiivka have been explained by a shortage of artillery shells on Ukraine’s part. How Russia is supposed to achieve similar successes when the Ukrainian artillery is back on schedule, rested and fully equipped is left as an exercise for the Russian war grave service.
🤣🤣🤣
12:36 – MatsExtrude
Maybe that’s why they bought 2,000 motorcycles from China?
They probably thought it would be hard to hit them with artillery? 🤣
12:55 – Johan No.1
Sorry, quoting the blogger’s text today it should also say so to be correct.
13:25 – Johan No.1
I expect a new normal where there will be drone swarms a couple of times a week against different targets.
Against the Tuapse refinery there were about 9 drones, a significant step-up from previously a single drone.
The Russian team is in severe anxiety – attacks this big have never happened before.
https://x.com/natalkakyiv/status/1791310236369715502?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
13:31 – Johan No.1
11:30 is nothing less than a sensation – for the first time since the special operation began, Ukraine has enough artillery ammunition – that statement should make Putin sleepless and then it will probably spread like wildfire in the army that the West has finally sent what is needed. Pure Red Bull can for morale that.
Reading things like this makes you happy.
13:38 – Johan No.1
No, you are probably spot-on, when Shaheds come, 95% are shot down and with air defense ammunition 95% of the missiles are shot down.
Now the drone swarms sail right through the air defense screen and then ATACMS and missiles hit high-value targets that have air defense, which are then also taken out.
1. RU technical platform for air defense is substandard.
2. they are short on air defense so holes everywhere.
3. deep targets are not defended at all because they don’t have the capacity.
Or in plain English – open goal.
17:53 – Johan No.1
Starting to feel sweaty for Putin, the world is spinning faster and faster and he can’t keep up anymore.
It must be an out-of-body feeling to realize that you are completely done for and that everything now is just a downhill slope until you are deep-marinated in gasoline and hung up like a wriggling piñata at a gas station in a suburb of Moscow when you are caught by a huge lynch mob on the way to the private jet with destination Dubai which was filled with bundles of dollars and gold bars.
18:55 – MatsExtrude
✊️ Yes, also all kinds of caviar are gone (except some strange vegetarian variant made from seaweed which he refuses to eat since he had to wear triple adult diapers after scooping down a big jar).
He’s starting to get seriously desperate!
20:51 – Johan No.1
If the thread starts to smell like spring in the air you can be absolutely sure that the shooting in the defense systems also feels that it has turned. They are very aware of their own artillery’s capability, Russian artillery’s capability, CAS, that tanks have been blown up and all the other things that make them survive.
When the initiative at some point shifts to Ukraine, the setbacks of 2023 are forgotten and a million-strong tidal wave will be set in motion.
They read just like us about the drone swarms against Crimea and the completely failed offensive at Kharkiv and they hear from neighboring brigades how they have received new Bradleys and the range of ATACMS or Storm Shadow.
20:55 – Johan No.1
F-16 will become a morale booster like a can of Red Bull because if there is one thing every soldier is absolutely terrified of, it’s those damn FAB bombs that bury them alive. TOS-1 was probably high up earlier but they are now basically wiped out.
10:59 – Johan No.1
The commentator has been upset with me for a while and aired it a few times which is okay, I responded to the substance last time and now today’s post has come.
The most important thing is that it is a dishonest debate with double standards when it comes to UA – RU and whether China has thrown RU under the bus, I address that in today’s post.
The other is that my starting point is to support Ukraine to the win they consider livable and sitting on the sidelines abandoning those who die for our freedom simply doesn’t suit me 😀
Thanks for many kind words during the post, always fun to read.
10:56 – Johan No.1
I suspect that on the northern front (the Kharkov offensive and maybe Sumy as has been written) the purpose is to create a buffer zone so that the Russian volunteer battalions cannot carry out their raids into Russian territory.
Thus, this is such a big domestic problem for Putin that he has demanded a buffer zone at any cost.
My thought.