2024-05-19 -

10:39 – Johan No.1

The Lions
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1791891751478702270?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Yesterday, two refineries were dive-bombed, one in Krasnodar which I guess was a second flyover (there are several there) and one in Vyborg which I am quite sure was the first visit.
https://x.com/naforaccoon/status/1792005863244251208?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

The refinery bombings continue and according to the blogger’s post yesterday (I think) Tuapse had completely shut down for three months to then have a release party and the day after they got hit by 9 drones and shut down again. Guess if that’s what they will do to all refineries within range.

Then there was 14% refinery capacity knocked out for fuel EARLY 2024 and I think those were the first 14 or so attacks which have doubled since then and they are getting better at hitting. And on top of that, they are knocking out oil depots.
Since UA has exclusively dive-bombed refineries in western Russia (almost…) the proportion of reduced refinery capacity in western Russia should be higher than the total, right?

The fuel supply can probably go into free fall in western Russia where the special operation is ongoing and the troops require fuel to deliver maintenance to the special operation.

And if that wasn’t enough, Crimea was visited for the third time within a week – unclear if this was the largest drone attack ever as Jay describes or if it was yesterday he was reasoning about, but it was an attack anyway. V1s probably zipped by along with all kinds of violent drones as usual.
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1792078464473838076?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1791954064034365915?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

An airbase in Krasnodar also got a visit from the dive-bomber fleet.
https://x.com/anno1540/status/1792075487428124757?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

We have discussed this in the thread for a long time but the British MoD is also a name so it lends credibility to the claim.
When UA attacks Russian airbases, they target high-value targets protected by air defense. What usually happens is that most get through and a lot of air defenses are knocked out. The airbases are protected by a forest of air defenses, a small isolated island of defense. This isolated island of defense instead becomes a big bullseye target.

In the rest of Russia, it is unprotected and you can send anything into the targets anytime.

The genius Niklas2 noted this morning that to reach Vyborg UA has flown through Moscow and Leningrad air defense zones 😲

Mattias Rust every day 🤣🤣

Now the MoD also rings the bell and says the obvious – Russia can no longer protect Crimea with air defense (they haven’t been able to for quite some time now as UA has worked away EW weapons, air defense, and radar).
https://x.com/nfx360/status/1791966380096389417?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Now that we have come this far – will RU be able to reinforce its air defense going forward – No.
Will UA run out of drones – No!
Will the targets be moved out of range – No.

So it remains that Ukraine per week continues to knock out 1-2 refineries, some oil depot, ammunition depot, some staff, a couple of airfields and other high-value targets like substations for example.
Ukraine has thousands of drones manufactured and long-range ammunition has arrived.

How long can Russia withstand this before the walls of the pressure cooker explode?

Considering that they have not commented a word on the attacks on the refineries, my guess is not very long.

The Belgorod raids went like this – winter 2023 raid 1 quickly followed by raid 2, silence, and 2024 preparations were ready to create a buffer zone. Putin had thus pulled a large number of units from Ukraine where they were needed to address a problem he did not comment on with a single word.

Lots of other irrelevant things happen threatening to break the West, some bombs in Donetsk, French troops, special aircraft and so on.

But what they keep quiet about is what really stings so my money is on the attacks on refineries and oil depots being potentially war-winning.

For Russia, the Ukraine war was a quick land grab, a smash-and-grab coup, not to lose the entire country’s refinery capacity which is a huge cash cow for large-scale oligarchs.
It is the elite’s future that is slowly being dismantled and the Ukraine war is not that important plus there is always another faction ready to draw knives if the great leader starts to look weak.
And not to forget the ice-cold dinners with oligarch wives who have swapped weekend trips to London for a weekend in Ganzou where they can’t even read the menus – kryptonite to ending the war.

I will return to the offensive below but that 80-90 drones have hit Crimea means that dozens of targets on an excellent priority list have been attempted to be engaged with varying results. They use ATACMS or Storm Shadow on the most important and then drones the further down the list I imagine.

The Crimea boss can only sit and watch how his airfields burn, ammunition and fuel depots explode, staffs become deep craters one after another and the billets burn down – Crimea is completely untenable and we have established that for a long time. It cannot be defended when Ukraine starts that operation.

And this is just the beginning – in 2024 Ukraine was allowed to take the war to Russia which they were not allowed to do during the first two years. How do you think that will go now?

And there are those who have thought that Ukraine would never manage this or that they will be forced to negotiate on bad terms when they have fought with one hand tied behind their back and been denied materiel. Dishonest debate, simply.

Now it is starting to look exactly as it should, the materiel is coming and Ukraine gets to strike where it does the most damage.
Putin had rigged everything to his advantage and not even then could he win. Now that they fight on equal terms he will lose spectacularly.

And if that wasn’t enough, the front-line pre-engagement is a hurricane right now if you judge by the losses in the daily lottery. It was visible immediately when ammunition came out to the units again.

Now we are at one of those three-day reporting delays again. Ukraine does that when they want to move troops and have some fun Easter egg going on for Putin. Then there is a reason we hear nothing about offensive operations big or small and that is because they learned last year that Putin had the battle plan on his desk before lunch the day they presented it to parliament.

Yes, it is my conviction that the F-16 is the critical line but right now Ukraine is conducting a mobile defensive battle and that includes local offensive operations if they think there is an opening, or maybe counterattacks is a better word. It is already ongoing – for example the counterattacks with the recently arrived Bradleys a few days ago.

I also read between the lines that much of Ukraine’s mech has been in the workshop, but it should have been repaired since the end of the spring offensive, and now, it doesn’t take a year to get a vehicle in shape provided the West doesn’t skimp on spare parts, but that would of course be quite expected.
By the same measure, it naturally means that an even larger portion of the Russians’ tank fleet is in the rear with technical faults.
Ukraine has help from workshops all over the EU to service the vehicle fleet.

Does this sound like a resigned Zelensky who is ready to negotiate?
https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1791801471786258836?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I think it sounds like Putin is going to get severe anxiety.
I personally believe that the situation behind the drawn curtains in the Kremlin is worse than our most optimistic predictions.

I saw a Putin in China with a dog face doing his best to smile like an employee towards Xi Jinping. Previously he has tried to be reserved and statesmanlike.

This one is interesting, I don’t know enough about economics but if I may guess, China has just sold 50 billion USD in bonds and it is portrayed as a finger wagging at the USA, but couldn’t it be that they are forced to sell because the economy is shaking?
And that the punitive tariffs now imposed are hurting them badly?
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3ksrwkcwmiz22

If there is anything the USA should deliver all they have of, it is the ATACMS cluster version with long range.
That ammunition has had insanely good results against airports and oil depots as well as staging areas.
A bit annoying that the USA is bipolar and can’t decide whether the geographical restriction applies or not.
Ukraine themselves have recently spoken out loudly on this, but early 2023 we started seriously discussing the geographical restrictions and that RU had bases in a string right on their side of the border with Ukraine.
Tendar found 12 army bases and then all the air bases. The air force neatly lined up and at the army bases hundreds of vehicles stand on staging areas and in addition ammunition and fuel.
And there they are preparing the next strategic reserve for combat in Ukraine.
That at the end of May 2024 there are still geographical restrictions on the ammunition, especially ATACMS, is unfortunate.
Now at Kharkov RU could calmly carry out their advance and then attack across the border.

I am not so naive as to not understand that this is part of the silent diplomacy with China but I don’t think it is a red line for China. Putin’s nuclear saber-rattling is uninteresting.
If these army and air bases are taken out along with ammunition depots and oil depots, the next Russian strategic reserve is no more.
Considering how effective the ATACMS cluster version has been and that they have hundreds of them, an intensive campaign over a few weeks should be more than enough.
The drones do not provide the dispersion effect that cluster ammunition does.
That said, there are no geographical obstacles to bombing the entire Crimea to pieces and that is exactly what is going on right now – it has begun.

How are front-line aircraft and attack helicopters supposed to survive ATACMS at all?

A dead barbarian colonel at the Dnieper
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1791879905694597621?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Here are the new brigades David D identified, I believe I had 11?
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1791645766395523326?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

When FAB bombers and attack helicopters are denied access to active fronts, a partial goal is achieved.
Number two is probably EW against Russian drones.
The mines are probably considered manageable after the setbacks in 2023.
Already today, front-line pre-attack in hurricane strength is ongoing against Russian artillery, ammunition depots, headquarters, radar, drone groups, and logistics. They have just started using JDAMS over at the Dnieper front and we KNOW they do enormous damage. UA has well over a thousand of them at least.

From what we have seen at the Dnieper, I guess that the UA offensive (when it eventually starts!!) will be preceded by intense droning of the Russians in the trenches together with the artillery, but drones can fly horizontally into fortifications nowadays so they have an advantage over artillery.
At the Dnieper they have pooled capabilities and RU considers drone losses completely unsustainable.

When the mech then moves forward, it is to deliver the shooting into the fortification systems unharmed with splinter protection and then they have so many vehicles that they can sacrifice vehicles against ground. During 2023 they did not have that and had to save on materiel because they did not (rightly!) trust the West to deliver.

Then RU defense must get into the fortifications and go on defense – if EW lies like a wet blanket over everything, it will be 155mm cluster shells that take out the defense which is now exposed – lucky that the USA sent them.
Bunkers have already been pre-attacked with JDAMS.
Then the shooting hits the fortification system and cleans it up.
The next platoon is then ready to attack the next fortification system and so on until they get through the very deep defense line – bit by bit.

I guess the mines will be cleared with explosive something where possible, something with drones they must have come up with by now and if nothing else, you can use drones to lay out long homemade minefields if you run out of the real ones or meteor?

Anyway, the mines are seen with drones at dusk so knowing exactly where the mines are can be done this year.

What I describe above is how you retake a front section of X km that is deeply fortified in several lines. If you remember, a defense line is obsolete after a full breakthrough and it is my conviction that UA can pool resources for full control of at least one front section.

Then of course the Russian task force will be rushed into the area and this is probably the most dangerous part of the whole operation. RU was extremely aggressive during the spring offensive and conducted counterattacks until it stopped UA but at obscene losses for RU.

My thought for 2024 is that this year the task force will drive straight into the drone weapon and guided artillery shells when they try to move on the highway. That is how the marine corps has managed to hold Krunky. As soon as RU tries to carry out a counterattack, they are knocked out far from the attack objectives. Like the miracle at Vuhledar but magnitudes worse (or better).

Russia has convened the Security Council to condemn the West sending weapons to Ukraine, it is unfair. We are not quite there yet but at some point Russia will be sitting and crying hysterically at the UN and it will be hysterically funny.
https://x.com/anno1540/status/1792074730565939612?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Yesterday Russia did its best to respond to Ukraine’s attacks – all the Shahed drones were shot down
https://x.com/euromaidanpress/status/1792078232776220844?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Now that missiles are arriving to the Luhansk People’s Republic, Russia also knows that 95% will be shot down, and moreover, they are short on missiles as Erik14 posted earlier in the thread which I stole.

The Lions No.2
https://x.com/aleksandrx13/status/1791622528416268631?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Unclear why the doubters are the loudest right now, maybe it’s that phenomenon where when it looks darkest, the sun rises?

Just the fact that Ukraine has drone-striked refineries 33 times is completely sensational to me – Russia is badly damaged.

That the West has stopped waving yellow cards is also true.

That Crimea is indefensible while Ukraine has equipped the marine corps with combat boats is also significant.

We should not even believe for a second that the northern front or Belarus is well defended. Until quite recently, Putin believed that his deal with the West still held. After the Belgorod raids in 2023, the West was not merciful with its yellow cards against Ukraine. The same was true with Novorossiysk when Ukraine struck the oil depots and Zelensky let us know that the West said big-stop. And then there was a chorus of condemnations after the first attacks on refineries from all sorts of parties, the UN, EIA, the USA, and other Western countries.

It is completely silent now, right, the yellow cards are no more even though the USA still seems bipolar about whether Ukraine can use their equipment against Russia or not.

Everything simply looks bright, like a light blue elevator with just the right volume on the elevator music.

Ukraine drew useful lessons from the spring offensive of 2023, which historians have now decided started on May 4th by the way. Zalizhny probably saved the army by directly opposing NATO. That it was necessary to hold accountable is reasonable and that Zelensky wrestled with much internal criticism last autumn and winter is also likely but they got through it. I guess it was a bit more serious than we have been led to believe since the Western countries supporting Ukraine mostly advocated troops in Ukraine and such things that previously would have given a deep red card. But now it’s over and Ukraine is moving towards force growth while all of Putin’s attempts since he was given the chance to try to win have failed. Not even a Ukrainian without ammunition can they defeat – the Russian empire might as well shut down.

11:08 – Johan No.1

Thank you.

Russia is enormous in area but the refinery capacity is calculated for the country as a whole, if it went down 14% after the first campaign, it was for the entire country.

Now in May 2024, most refineries for fuel in WESTERN Russia are stopped but they are running at full capacity in EASTERN Russia. The products in eastern Russia are for that part of the country as well as for Asia – they do not have the logistics to get the products to western Russia.

The shortage, or fuel starvation, in western Russia is therefore likely greater than if you take an average figure for the country.
And it is in western Russia where all the fuel for the war is needed now.