11:30 – Johan No.1
IngenAhning thinks they have seen ships on the inner waterways.
If you extend the landing tonnage on the inland waterways, that is also an explanation for the movement.
If that were possible, a myth from the Cold War would be proven true – that Russia can move relatively large ships on the inland waterways. My goodness, how we argued about that on Skalman.
12:24 – MatsExtrude
Thanks!👍
14:03 – Johan No.1
See no hidden attack so thanks yourself 👍
16:56 – MatsExtrude
🤣
17:18 – Johan No.1
Discussed a bit with some people on a post from David D, will post them tomorrow.
There it is considered that Sweden wanted to send Gripen with our best long-range weapons and that together with no restrictions became too much.
Not entirely unreasonable since Biden just announced that it’s frontline that matters and we were clear that our weapons can be used against anything no matter how far in.
21:50 – Johan No.1
Have we been invaded?
Here people take a time-out and chug everything with more than 5% on the label and suddenly the thread is flooded with new accounts jumping on the Gripen story that we are all upset about and sow division.
Anonymous time, Wannaberocker, someone else, Badaboom, MatsExtrude and someone named Dengamle 🧐
No Russian will cross my threshold, password BULLE always reveals them, if the answer is Boooelle just go for the soft parts, speech difficulties can be solved with a lawyer if it should be so.
22:07 – MatsExtrude
Absolutely the right security solution!
Even those garlic-loving nonsense men, sorry Frenchmen, who want to come and show off with Mirage over our dear Gripen will answer wrong and come up with boule or something else incomprehensible that does not contain cinnamon and above all does not belong in the Swedish fika tradition!
11:09 – Johan No.1
Now a motorcycle with a large drone cage has been tested sharply in combat and was knocked out immediately 🤣
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kuczy3sk3k2i
I actually don’t understand why Putin doesn’t just throw in the towel, this is downright embarrassing.
In any case, I am interested in what the remaining landing ships are now doing inside Azov within range of all of Ukraine’s indirect capabilities.
I can only see two reasons to deliberately sacrifice the Black Sea Fleet in this way –
– they are critically low on supplies and must use the ships for maintenance. Consider here that a ship will be at the quay for what, 4-5 hours unloading ammunition – you could hardly find a more attractive target…
– they intend to evacuate Crimea. Why they wouldn’t evacuate by land route is then the question since it is still open.
The fact that the remaining landing capacity is in the Sea of Azov within the radius of UA indirect capabilities is a puzzle piece and then we’ll see how this fits together.
Since what was supposed to be protected by the escort was the landing ships, this does not seem to be for a missile operation?
Considering UA capabilities, they can’t stay there very long so it can’t reasonably be preventive either, waiting for some UA offensive coming later?
Then I wonder if the thread has information about the other fleet force that had not yet departed yesterday, right now it’s pretty quiet on the airwaves?
But it is a bigger puzzle piece that signals something significant reasonably.
Yesterday’s Russian missile barrage was pathetic and shot down as expected. The Russians absolutely idolize “proportionate response” and when refineries, LV, radar and other high-value targets are taken out, five pathetic missiles are all they can send – absolutely screaming short on missiles as well.
I think it’s very fun to follow an original argument and how new information comes out – Gripen I absolutely cannot let go.
At first, the reason from everyone who knew their stuff was that what was said was right – Ukraine could not handle two systems at the same time.
Then Ukraine came out and asked for Gripen (but they didn’t know better was the explanation).
And now Macron has done what he promised would happen on June 6 and will train a brigade and send Mirage 2000 to Ukraine.
How that fits with Ukraine only being able to handle one system is not clear but the experts who pushed that argument might explain it to the rest of us?
He now takes all the spotlight from our Gripen which are now pushed back in the queue.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kubo4zddys2a
I tried to show here that Ukraine already today has commercial aviation, transport aircraft, Su-25/27, Mig-29 and 5-6 different types of helicopters and it has worked.
Then we also raised that our Swedish AWACS were already integrated with Gripen – Gripen was optimal for them even if everything is NATO standard.
The other was that our Gripen could not be spared as defense for the northern border but that is also torpedoed because Finland is sending F-18 Hornets to Romania. If Gripen could not be spared how can then F-18 Hornets be sent to Romania?
For me, the reason Gripen is not sent is not explained at present and I stick to that it is the USA pulling the strings until the right reason has been made public.
So far in the war, there has been a striking amount of dirty play exposed, not infrequently by Zelensky.
But I can think that Sweden could have stood its ground a bit because Gripen is an excellent plane that we want to sell – it is the pinnacle of Russian killers. Maybe a compromise – “we pause sending but will train lots of new pilots?”
Nothing is secret anymore since the intention has already been made public.
And now that the USA did not want to train more UA pilots there is a vacuum to exploit, which maybe Macron is now doing…
Putin’s latest speech was very aggressive and he swung in all directions – I interpret it as they are under very heavy pressure now.
Then they have called a meeting in the UN Security Council about the Western deliveries so they will make a big deal out of it.
But never forget that what really hurts they never comment on with a word.
This is of course an attempt to get the West to pull back.
Macron is a good indicator of which way the wind is blowing, he probably would never have exposed himself as he did early 2024 if he hadn’t started to feel that a majority in the West wanted to go that way and then he pushes aside everyone else and puts himself first.
Western support has now reached a level that it is a problem for Russia and there should come a lot of hot air from them. That only means they are on the decline.
Ukraine is training amphibious combat, landing on deserted beaches so definitely not Dnepr 😀
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1798982938484146378?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And another radar on Crimea is down.
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1798986206526496912?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
If one may dream away, then a violent offensive diversion up at the northern front paired with amphibious operations and breakthroughs at the Dnepr front would be a battle plan that would become a mandatory history lesson in middle school.
At the northern front, Ukraine has gathered enough for an offensive and enormous amphibious capability has been delivered by the West while the bridgehead at Dnepr has been expanded.
The strategic offensive reserve is not up at the northern front so much is clear and it is about fifteen (15) brigades as I count them up.
Quite a few of these brigades were set up in summer or autumn 2023 – they have thus in some cases had a year to be staffed and trained.
This strategic offensive reserve should have been equipped with the new materiel delivered since the turn of the year, fragmentation protection and tanks presumably?
Then all materiel that participated in the spring offensive has probably been serviced in shifts and must be out in units again?
Summing it up, RU has not managed to achieve anything beyond Avdiivka since last autumn – UA manages its defense.
At the northern front, the offensive has collapsed and RU is beginning to pull available units to defense along the northern front – they are worried about UA offensive.
At the Dnepr front, Ukraine is expanding the bridgehead and then they have the initiative on both flanks.
RU has a huge U-shaped front they stand outside to relate to and their maintenance and transports/movements must be a nightmare.
Since the Black Sea Fleet chose to go in with all landing ships into Azov, something is simmering.
Just hope now that the West delivers F-16 and ammunition in time, most other things seem to be in place now.
USA came with a new package with exactly the right ammunition.
Looks good as usual.