12:02 – Johan No.1
How should one then paint this war best so it is not forgotten if we are to go back to the war, I always get upset about Swedish electricity market usury, sorry for the earlier OT 🤬
Below is thus one of the two legs – the harsh truth which will then be followed up by us praising every mistake Ukraine makes to the skies and laughing hysterically at everything Putin does.
Should we be tolerant and advocate peace, not hate the Russian (soldier) bastards and wish life out of the small goat-eyed and arthritic excuses for saber-rattling and screaming war criminal soldiers?
I like the meme “I am (*any country previously destroyed by Russia*) and I hated the f@cking Russians before it trended,” or however it goes. The imagery is fantastic and you quickly understand how many countries Russia has destroyed throughout history – a journey of torture and death.
We forget quickly.
https://x.com/flyingdutchpall/status/1802834272803590382?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
We also forget that there are soldiers like you and me sitting in a bunker for over two years waiting to die, they have wives and children who are burned out by the stress, and the likelihood that they will come home with PTSD that makes them unable to function is sky-high. The country of Ukraine will have difficulty handling this just like all countries with existential wars have had.
And that the children’s stress levels are enormous
https://x.com/olenawave/status/1803164894356721712?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Good tone is always very good but children as young as five are tortured, raped, and finally murdered in front of their parents who are then released, and the soldiers laugh when they try to take their own lives. Prisoners are castrated and raped hundreds of times in captivity or have their hands or feet amputated due to disability.
The only thing that surpasses this is ISIS forcing a mother to eat her infant, but that was another war, yet their flags are still waved in Sweden as some kind of freedom symbol – however that makes sense.
She, the lively police officer who was a young adult full of hope for the future before the war, and came back as an empty shell who will probably take her own life according to all available statistics since she had been continuously tortured and raped for two whole years (according to her own statement – the courage to admit that is staggering).
Prisoners are hung upside down in a tree and their stomachs are ripped open, and then they are left to die hanging there.
Prisoners come back completely emaciated, they look like those liberated from concentration camps (and torture and constant rapes on top of that, men and women)
This is how the Russians have always operated so those who advocate normalization when the war is over want the next country to be subjected to the same treatment – never forget that. In their desire to do good, they instead cause harm, but do not see it because they think they are good. Or maybe it’s just business.
The world has – war, poverty, death, tragic life stories, anxiety, suicide, dead children, orphaned children after deceased parents and all such things that fly by when you have worked in developing countries. Life is extremely hard in most parts of the world and to survive you are forced to think about yourself. You can only think that money is not important if you have enough to eat yourself and happy endings are unfortunately fewer.
We are enormously privileged but we must never make the mistake of thinking that everyone else can afford to be as generous as we are, and try to force them to do so through good tone.
Ukraine faces an existential threat and is fighting for their lives, for their tortured-raped-murdered children’s lives.
Consider this (I may not support the account but the message is thought-provoking) –
https://x.com/gigabaseddad/status/1802502419001049279?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
How do you best support Ukraine – by criticizing all the lacking support and by always praising everything Ukraine does and making sure the world does not forget by alternating the harsh truth with a rock-solid positive belief in a smashing win – that’s what I think and have been doing for 2.5 years as part of a daily routine. My way of trying to keep interest in the war alive.
Why – well, because I sure as hell don’t want to have to stand fiddling with a well-oiled AK4 wearing a far too small M59 at a mobilization depot in Östergötland, in zero-degree pouring rain, in a few years just because our elected officials slept through our time’s great global conflict. Gun grease all over your hands that you try to wipe off on the moss and after two hours the whole uniform is smeared with gun grease and then it’s over.
Or do you do it best by criticizing Ukraine for all sorts of things – for example, that after two years in a trench they are still bad soldiers. Or to consider that lack of support from the West is good because it is a sound strategy – no, you absolutely contribute nothing positive with that, you only kick those who are already down.
If you have also been wrong for two years, that is a diagnosis that probably cannot be cured.
Over 2.5 years many of our confident positive (and negative) claims have later proven to be true which is nice. The feeling you get with a touch of probability is often right. We can go through these at some point but Erik14 has it under control. Erik14 is a bit like the archivist who shuffles around and knows all of Europe’s history down to individual years that are not even in history books.
This is how good the memory of the legend Erik14 is, written June 21; “The man, now without Dengamle’s tie” in a post about Budanov. This is actually high level, that something so peripheral that only flew by once in the thread can stick is highly impressive.
(Dengamle’s Operation Badanka was a misunderstanding – he apparently thought it meant everyone would crawl into colorful bath ducks and paddle across in the tens of thousands, and not that it was figurative – it’s not easy with him all the time, and not such a high level 😲).
Now we have taken the heavy and move on to the positive 😀
12:08 – Johan No.1
Ukraine has been promised nearly 12,000 hard vehicles, not far from those 15,000 – 20,000 someone suggested in the thread, right.
That does not include domestic production and things that are secret. I also don’t think all new production bought on contract by Ukraine or co-production is included there, I can’t find the Germans’ Lynx and Puma on the lists.
Then Ukraine has a program to put new weapon stations on BMP-1 and BTR-60 for example, probably a program involving several actors in Europe so a large number of vehicles are upgraded.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kvle7zyhdg2l
We have long discussed that half of the West has quietly delivered fragmentation protection, here you have Slovenia which is indeed on the lists but they make no fuss along with a whole bunch of other countries.
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1801170741817196827?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
According to Oryx, Ukraine has lost 6,000 vehicles in the war but that’s all, I didn’t bother to break out hard vehicles. But just in that comparison Ukraine has 6,000 left only of what has been donated.
83rd AAB has been pulled from the Dnipro front to reinforce the northern front.
155th Marine Infantry, the unit that has been zeroed out the most times in a year ever, has also been sent to the northern front.
98th AD has moved around a bit, I don’t remember if it was at the southern front or Bakhmut before but also relocated.
UA advanced in the Kreminna forests while the 144th MRD was moved for an offensive towards Borova and it was previously in the area around Kreminna.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1803051452639621439?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Do you know what all this means – that Russia is weakening existing front lines to carry out its offensives right now, which means the strategic reserve is depleted. They probably burned it out on the northern front.
After a major loss at Borova, it opens up for some progress in northern Luhansk, you can all see how it looks in some places – entire sections defended by RU territorial.
It is reasonable that UA will conduct offensive operations on the southern front in the coming months, the number of vehicles for amphibious combat suggests that.
RU has thus gathered 10,000 for an offensive against Borova. In terms of making a difference, it is absolutely irrelevant. The 50,000 up on the northern front got nowhere.
One begins to wonder if Kreminna is within reach here, SOF at night with night combat capability in that forest becomes violent and Azov just advanced a whole kilometer.
6 CAA and a few divisions on the southern front – it’s starting to get quite a lot of hit-and-run map fighting over the whole thing now.
The numbers are nowhere near what the unit symbols suggest.
Here you see how hollowed out the CAA has become over the years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/6th_Combined_Arms_Army
You also see how many times the 6th CAA was wiped out in WW2 – it is thus an old fine tradition they are keeping up, which guarantees they never get better.
LV is in place, artillery is in place, body armor is in place, and the strategic reserve has been trained since summer 2023.
What is not in place is the air force.
Pretty sure Ukraine has not been allowed to break into the northern oblasts and that the West wants to wrest Crimea from Russia first to see if they give up, which will cost lives – it’s a mistake but what can Ukraine do. I hope I’m wrong.
The strategic bombing campaign continues with hurricane force in the northern oblasts with drone attacks on airfields and bases mixed with Western weapons.
Refinery destruction also continues, a total of 42 attacks now, and the fact that they have switched to oil depots and gas stations suggests they have had good results with the crash-bomb drones.
Can never be said often enough – Putin has lost the strategic bombing war since early 2024.
It is clear that RU’s various front commands act independently and while the northern front runs out of steam, the eastern fronts continue their attempts at offensives.
We also saw how the southern front screamed hoarse for reinforcements and got none during the spring offensive.
Forcing_the_Russians_to_choose is probably the way forward everyone can see.
They will GUARANTEE choose the northern front if faced with that choice and the southern front is what will be abandoned, probably in attempts at steps.
The darkest Donbass they give back to the rebels as a quick fix if it gets tight.
If Putin knows the northern front is a no-go for Ukraine, he can hold the border with some CAA – forcing Putin to keep half a million up there would be smarter.
If anyone tries to be a pessimist and say UA doesn’t want to, I remind you of three raids in 2023 and 2024 and that they have moved units there so they have a 3:1 advantage over RU – their intention is clear.
What can we read from the June losses so far?
Runaway losses in front-line rear capabilities – artillery, special forces, and soft vehicles.
LV is subject to a deliberate extermination and RU has already pulled LV from Kaliningrad and the Kurils (!!!!) to strengthen LV capability on Crimea and high-value targets like airbases. If that doesn’t scream total defeat, I don’t know what does.
IFVs have surprisingly gone down while tanks (which they had saved on earlier) have gone up – RU is now also critically short on IFVs and to keep momentum up they had to put tanks into the attacks again.
We saw a couple of attacks with only tanks actually.
Losing 880 IFVs (May) in one month makes a difference but we have discussed this often and at length.
We see countless videos of golf carts and motorcycles so anyone today claiming RU has full access to tanks and body armor is not engaging in honest discussion.
Don’t forget the +30% that are out with technical faults in the rear.
Each front, Dnipro, Southern, Central, Bakhmut, and northern Luhansk had about 1,500 body armor and 600 tanks or thereabouts in the last count in 2023 if you spread it out totally and then I think I’m counting generously.
Now RU has been attacking since October really and lost 6,000 IFVs up to the end of May.
Add 30% with technical faults and you see they have lost quite a lot of what they had available.
According to earlier estimates, it would take about 10 months to get new vehicles and the crews in the country are getting worse with reverse Darwinism which we see all the time.
And then they lose T54s and we see trains with T62s, as well as BRDM-2s knocked out in combat which is an ancient reconnaissance vehicle.
The reason I have seen that the probability of a UA offensive is sky-high is not only because all the materiel has been delivered to Ukraine, late but it arrived…, but because the Russian losses look like this if you dive deep into them.
RU is simply finished and if UA waits until 2025 or 2026 China risks being drawn into the war and the suffering for the country would continue.
Then we have often discussed that Ukraine domestically is also a powder keg.
https://x.com/alex_oloyede2/status/1804463936214896722?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
To be completely honest – if Ukraine had made the same journey and now fought with only Centurions, French VAB vehicles and M60s when RU had lots of CAA with T90Ms and BMP-terminators, and then been so short on mobilizable reserves that they had to go to developing countries and pay to get soldiers, I would have given up hope for Ukraine too.
If the videos we have seen of the Russians were regiments with the same level as VDV and Spetsnaz were before the war and UA were scared of shooting and drunk, I would have given up a long time ago.
But now it is the opposite and that is how it looks, and apparently very few see it.
UA’s capability has been increasing since 2022 and their pool of SOF is ENORMOUS, and they have good work-life experience.
At the risk of getting people who see themselves as tolerant but are intolerant about it – I think the UA armed forces fight “like German WW2”. They have moved away from acting in units according to the manual and work with what they have and put together something that works, every time. They fight asymmetrically and have learned to handle combined arms warfare in a way that should make Patton jealous.
Now the USA probably fought similarly towards the end of the war maybe so it’s a bit unfair to call it “German WW2”, I take that back.
NATO all honor but when was NATO doctrine last tested against a qualified enemy, or maybe not doctrine but the units?
I’ll put another Erik14 five-hundred on the line that NATO will update its manual after this war.
The Russians will do as they always have, build a Potemkin facade and steal all the money, and the West will do as they always have – become terrified as soon as the Potemkin facade starts to flutter.
We must be very clear that China has studied this war thoroughly and understands that they have no chance. That does not mean there will be no war because everyone can be forced to do a Japan, and then the conflict becomes global, but China cannot win.
Do you know why we have these peace meetings, most recently in Switzerland where about eighty countries participated?
Well, because the UN is not interested in being a forum for this issue. It is the same UN that keeps issuing condemnations against I..el.
Russia has very cleverly managed to win (bribe) all these organizations to its side, and the free world has begun to form new groupings now.
But it’s going to hell anyway –
– For Putin’s part, he has managed to get Europe’s northern flank to close ranks so that the Baltic Sea became a NATO sea.
– The EU is more united than ever and has begun to smoke out the worst traitors.
– The arms industry is running at full speed, anyone who says otherwise is lying with a purpose.
– Ukraine is now West.
– South Korea and Japan have fully taken the step into the Western sphere.
If I may guess, I don’t think China likes what is happening in Asia right now. I think China thinks this whole mess is becoming difficult to handle.
I believe China will increase pressure on Putin to end this war by leaving Ukraine.
Then I unfortunately think China will persuade the West to normalize relations with Russia as soon as the war is over and that Germany will be (too) quick on that ball.
China is struggling economically right now
https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1803180147110998390?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
13:48 – MatsExtrude
Having to get help from North Korea reeks of desperation, but unfortunately it will contribute to prolonging the war.
Regarding the Russian population, I do not feel sorry for the part that stands on Putin’s side. They should know better.
However, I do feel sorry for the North Korean population. They have no chance to defend themselves. If they now also have to end up as cannon fodder in Ukraine, it is sad.
13:53 – MatsExtrude
Good that you remind of the atrocities for those who don’t understand what is at stake and why Ukraine needs all the support we can give them!
Now I think everyone who reads here understands how things stand, I would like to see that in established media so it can reach everyone.
14:04 – MatsExtrude
You forgot one thing, to end on a positive-positive note!
If they just get enough ammunition, both 155mm and MANPADS, it should probably work even without F-16s, although it would be nice if they were also on site.
If they can carry out an offensive, I think they will do it this year; they probably want to avoid another winter with shaky energy supply.
That thing with the F-16s has otherwise been good, now the Russians bomb airports to a greater extent. Relatively easy to restore compared to electricity production, etc.
Thanks for all three yellow walls today, nice to see you in top form!
14:50 – Johan No.1
Yes, that Putin has managed to get many other nationalities, including Ukrainians, to fight against Ukraine is unfortunate.
15:03 – Johan No.1
Yes, the media has completely stopped writing about the dark sides of the war.
15:10 – Johan No.1
Yes, exactly, forgot that one – will come tomorrow.
19:32 – Johan No.1
In support of Kraken – the Biden administration now has a 100km limit for how far their weapons are allowed to shoot into Ukraine.
All the important airbases lie beyond 100km…
https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1804512874791878716?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Considering that the Biden administration is not completely incompetent, this is deliberate.
11:59 – Johan No.1
Starting with something lighthearted – more and more reports of Rosgvardia units at the fronts, or some information that I wildly extrapolate to be able to write this so it becomes a positive start.
I will also donate a symbolic amount to the violent drone weapon for my three-day absence as soon as the salary arrives and after the kids have had this month’s pizza if there’s anything left over, Regards Elunderklassen in Östergötland. Dengamle apparently promised “fifteen long scarves,” I saw, proof is expected 👍
(I also saw a song from Punkt49 and it lifted that day when it was, hysterically funny).
Do you think Putin in North Korea screams winner? Last time he sent Shoigu but now he had to go himself for some loads of crooked grenades 🤣
And immediately South Korea and Japan promise to arm Ukraine to the teeth – South Korea is a major player sitting on enormous stockpiles of ammunition, weapons, and arms industry. If the cargo ships come fully loaded from South Korea, it really makes a difference
It must be absolutely terrible to be Putin right now, the humiliation is total.
In the middle of Putin’s uncontrollable trauma from burning refineries, Ukraine is doing squats on the banks of the Dnieper and revving engines in the forest areas up at the northern front. The Russians are starting to get quite worried that UA will advance and roll over Moscow in a week or so because they have pulled units from conquered areas to reinforce up at the northern front. Coming in the next post.
The reasons why UA could not go on the offensive in 2024 were supposed to be exhaustion, poor morale after 2023, too few troops, and no equipment, which were given as reasons when we discussed Ukraine’s offensive strategic reserve, but nevertheless, local counterattacks are happening almost everywhere right now.
The other day, a kilometer was retaken in the Kreminna forests of all places.
We have also discussed in detail that one should be able to trade air superiority against denying RU access to the front with aircraft through air defense and then use indirect capabilities to perform the air force’s task. The drone industry had manufactured 250,000 drones, 10,000 long-range, and 2,500 super-range a few months into 2024, as we learned?
But UA already uses French and US JDAMS to strike deep targets with its own aircraft.
I wonder if new air defense platforms might temporarily be the last puzzle piece needed to deny the Russian FAB bombers (and Ahkp, and CAS) access before the advanced aircraft arrive.
In 2024, air defense both ammunition and platforms started arriving – at the same time as the barbarians ran out of missiles. 1-2 mobile Patriot fire units shot down what, a dozen advanced aircraft or more? Now they can run hit and runs with maybe five (5) fire units.
Keep an eye out for signs of UA offensive operations – hordes of fleeing screaming barbarians could be such a sign, another is Putin going into falsetto and threatening the whole world with nuclear weapons with a cold sweat on his forehead.
Then we have another modern classic from the first year of the war “Europe is not building new tanks and the arms industry is in decline.” I think no one has missed the arms fair last month where 5 new MBTs were presented (yes, modifications but huge ones) along with a flood of completely new IFVs and other weapon systems – these have not been developed from idea to finished product in a year, so another huge lie from those who claimed to know in the thread. This is important because between summer 2022 – 2023 sometime, the narrative was widespread that the West had nothing to send and it would take 10 years to get production going. Yes, we see it…
https://x.com/jonhawkes275/status/1803358307630944471?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/knds_france/status/1802722288082583809?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/rheinmetallag/status/1802723094349369500?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And RU has only managed to newly produce 230 T90Ms in four years or so.
https://x.com/hoanssolo/status/1802978777988800851?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
To be absolutely clear – Russia is completely outclassed in production now – total Tyson knockout with accompanying half nelson and slow strangulation.
Then they were not in NK for rusted-out ammunition that doesn’t fit the barrels but to increase the manpower pool – that is what Russia needs now, soldiers from NK.
If T54 and North Korean child soldiers don’t scream crushing defeat, I don’t know what does.
NK rents out slave workers to China, and everything goes directly to Kin Yong Un, so Putin has probably paid a few billion more in gold and gets X number of child soldiers to sacrifice in Ukraine.
I am waiting for all the do-good organizations to take on this slave trade (which it is).
A whole battalion of T55 is on its way to the fronts, can’t be too long now.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kvlexgcwhg2u
It was funny to see the theories run wild that Dengamle and I would be the same person 😅
I also know that this thing with monkeys has been subject to doubt about how authentic it really was, but I can report that we have many hectares of farmland we haven’t done much with in Angola where, besides all the cool fruits like lemons, bananas, mango, and papaya, there are a whole lot of monkeys.
I have had a long commitment in Angola since I worked there for 10 years and a bit through the adoptions I have had a larger (private) social engagement even after we moved. Now that I have had enough of the damn job dead-end I have managed to maneuver myself into and am close to leaving, we have thought about working with agriculture and mining on our land. And then experimenting with electricity to small darkened communities through solar cells + batteries, which is something I picked up on at Cornucopia. I will absolutely not smuggle diamonds or clear rainforests.
I will also not put people into lifelong debt through Swedish electricity contracts where you first take full payment for the installation and then triple monthly costs for – cables, batteries, solar cells, and finally the electricity itself sold at an exorbitant price while blaming the African electricity market and developments in Egypt, after receiving 80% subsidies for all materials and installation. Or as it is also called – being a privileged electricity customer in Sweden.
Now that we have cleared that up, we can move on to Putin’s embarrassing three-day operation.