12:13 – Johan No.1
This one should have been included yesterday but I couldn’t find it because I have a bone to pick with those who laughed themselves hoarse at my suggestion that drones should carry 155mm HE shells.
https://x.com/aidefranceukr/status/1803360958259061189?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Ukraine will thus receive 600 newly manufactured French JDAMS during 2024.
They have previously received from reserve stocks from the USA and France, was it +600 total?
Considering UA’s ability for target acquisition and hit accuracy, this is very good news, the Surovikin line’s bunkers suddenly don’t seem so hard to breach anymore.
That line is also only as strong as its weakest point – once breached, it is breached, Lex the French.
https://x.com/aidefranceukr/status/1805358362466336978?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And here David D explains why RU artillery is coming to an end if we continue from yesterday.
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1805294832543580612?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Poland’s president has apparently read the thread and understood that Russia, along with China, is the last great colonial power. Now we are just waiting for all the decolonization movements to fully focus on Russia and China now that it has been confirmed by a president.
https://x.com/rshereme/status/1805343969280409916?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Wonder if Assange has finally promised to open up?
Apparently a plea deal with the USA where he admits to one of eighteen crimes. Could become an interesting revelation and some who have not yet been outed in the West will fall.
Hope I clarified enough in the thread under my quickly written post that was supposed to be smart.
This is why you can only like Ukraine – now they have modified their Neptune to 1000km and ground targets. A Grom 2 in the Kremlin is just one permission from the West away.
Russia is so hopelessly smoked in the strategic bombing war that the reason the Kremlin is not a pile of rubble is because the West still wants to try to end this war in the way they think is best.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kvqit3enzr2l
Zelensky IS tired of the USA and these constant geographic restrictions but progress is being made.
https://x.com/glasnostgone/status/1804951227634987299?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The spring offensive 2023 came as expected but almost became a war-ending loss for Ukraine and then Russia had actually gotten their win. UA was seriously worried during the autumn when Zalizhny and the entire command were lost and especially when the West stopped sending ammunition – Ukraine completely ran out of LV missiles and RU could cause enormous damage to Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure and the artillery crews could only watch, when everything was in the warehouses.
I remember making a huge mistake in autumn 2023 where I did not believe the warnings that the West stopped sending materiel but thought it was on the way – what I regret most in this war is that I had too much faith in the West which acted as a veil when I made analyses. I believed they would keep their promises and see reality for what it is.
Simply put, I thought they would stop being politicians and start behaving like living beings.
It was with growing surprise I saw materiel that never arrived as promised and how Ukraine crashed straight into the best prepared part of the entire front line.
A bit of trivia was that they were not allowed to attack into that part the year before when it was not prepared, you have to make sure it doesn’t go too well.
Imagine if 20,000 VDV had surrendered on the right bank of the Dnieper already in 2022 and Ukraine had reached the land bridge to Crimea that year – what do you think would have happened then?
Bakhmut did its part as a diversionary maneuver where Azov fought as trench-clearing demigods and then we had the southern front which followed exactly according to plan. But we (I) did not have fortress Tokmak as the main option – there were three attack vectors at the southern front and another one at the Dnieper. My money was on an attack direction east of Vuhledar – if you remember that five hundred from Erik14 that I bet on (Erik14 remembers…).
Trench-clearing demigods
https://youtu.be/a1GB8BekVYQ?si=2kBCO9YucUOQ-9-e
The other two attack vectors were between the Dnieper and Tokmak which was more lightly fortified and then towards Vuhledar but I don’t remember exactly where anymore.
They attacked straight into the hardest fortified areas – straight into the minefields and according to their own statement it was the place they were told to attack.
The West completely stopped delivering materiel and ammunition for 8 months has been completely silenced, no one wants to talk about it. It is one of this war’s biggest strategic disasters – what did the West think would happen?
When I…el has the slightest gap in its air defense, the USA sends everything they have immediately.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1803202524712702206?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The rumor was that UA would be forced to negotiate during the autumn and RU would keep what they had conquered – came from Gregg.
True or not, the West completely stopped delivering materiel and hoped for, well for what – what were they really hoping for?
If you don’t have the answer to that, you can’t rule out that Gregg was right and I suspect it because everything was in the warehouses ready to be sent. It may also have been behind Zelensky forcing an offensive – was forced to take a big risk, all in?
The offensive failed because the West did not provide materiel and forced Ukraine to attack what we guessed was the best fortified part of the Suvorikin line, and without air support, and without denying RU air access to the fronts through LV – the chances for UA were small which perhaps shows how pressured they were?
Yes, that they had not mapped the mines was surprising, even the thread knew that they can be seen at dusk with drones but RU may have re-mined previously cleared areas?
Now in 2024 they have developed systems for mine clearance.
The year before, in 2022, Ukraine was prevented from attacking in an area that was poorly defended so that the VDV could be deployed.
Now in 2024, there is a deliberate delay of the frontline aircraft, and we have read that Ukraine would focus on Crimea when the obvious move is a strike straight north into Muscovite Russia as a diversion before going for Crimea.
In boxing terms – a violent slap followed by a very hard uppercut as Putin whimpers and folds up.
F-16s were promised by May, then June, and now it is still unclear if they will arrive this summer – it is my conviction that the F-16 is considered the critical line and by controlling it, they have a chokehold on Ukraine. The Gripen might have cut the chokehold, perhaps?
And if you believe the lies about training and such, it takes 8 months for a Polish AH-64 pilot to become a fully trained Apache pilot. I have heard six months of training on Western aircraft for experienced pilots and that it would be enough.
https://x.com/hallonsa/status/1802968686703116562?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Not only Sweden had to change at the last minute, Denmark’s prime minister had to clarify after a press conference that the F-16s would not arrive in mid-May but several months later due to some pretext just like with Sweden. I seem to recall that the Netherlands also changed their timeline?
Who is the West to tell Ukraine what to do, how can they take that right?
They should be allowed to use all means available to try to win this war without restrictions.
It is easy to sit and think that the West is right and Ukraine is wrong when we sit protected behind their ultimate sacrifice.
But now Italy allowed strikes inside Russia and is sending their Storm Shadow missiles,
And as recently as June 18, US representatives confirmed that Ukraine is not allowed to strike deep inside Russia with Western weapons.
Different messages all the time from just about everyone…
At the same time, Russia has presumably been made to understand that Ukraine will not attack over the northern front so Putin could reduce surveillance there to zero, but now he is starting to get a bit worried up there which is good.
Right now, the US strategy does not seem to be that Ukraine should win – their strategy appears to be to force Russia to the negotiating table.
Maybe that is why they keep blocking potentially war-winning moves from Ukraine all the time.
But Europe is nipping at the heels of the US now, that is quite clear, we have already had Storm Shadow attacks deep inside Russia so either it is the French or Italian missiles. The UK wavered a bit on the subject last I heard.
Wasn’t that Putin’s very red nuclear line that absolutely must not be crossed, by the way 🤣
Putin is really a total walkover, of all the red lines, missiles against targets in Russia were a total no-go and now here we are 👍
I do NOT think China liked that Putin was in Vietnam, they have a somewhat shaky relationship with them after they went into the jungle and disappeared in the jungle when they thought Vietnam was weak after the war with the US. Vietnam also immediately declared its close relationship with the US.
And North Korea – that is China’s direct backdoor.
I expect China will try to cool Putin down going forward, we shall see.
-positive-positive thus except that Budanov has not unblocked me on WhatsApp as someone promised 😐
13:05 – MatsExtrude
👍 Another big disappointment besides the slow weapon deliveries, and restrictions on how they are used, has been the sanctions. Sanctions are pointless if they are not enforced.
Without tools, machinery, and electronics, I am quite sure Russia would be finished by now. The only thing that seems to have happened is that everything goes through detours, Russia pays a bit more than usual, while intermediaries get rich. Catastrophically bad.
Slowly it seems people have woken up, hopefully enough for us to see a turnaround this year.
13:12 – Johan No.1
Yes, someone calculated that 60%-70% of the components in Russian missiles raining down on Ukraine came from Western countries and that they continue to be produced?
13:27 – MatsExtrude
Yes, and it’s not just the electronics in missiles and other weapon systems, it’s also all the electronics needed within the arms industry itself.
16:08 – Johan No.1
If there is a live debate, it will be interesting to see how much has been lied about the gentlemen’s cognitive condition actually.
According to what we know from the media, Trump will not be able to formulate a full sentence and call Biden Churchill, and Biden will start wandering off in different directions and suck on the assistants’ fingers.
So it will be a pretty good calibration of how much manipulated information we receive daily from presumably all camps.
16:28 – Johan No.1
Yes, you are of course right in the middle of all your word typhoons.
TODAY, June 25, 2024, Ukraine is not allowed to do that at all, and yes, that will definitely make the US very angry.
Most other countries have been very clear that no geographical restrictions apply at all and that proportionate response and the laws of war apply – the Ministry of Defense is a valid target.
But…
Not long ago, Ukraine was not allowed to strike refineries, invade Russia, destroy oil depots, shoot with Western weapons on Russian soil, or use their own weapons on Russian soil.
So if you look at probability, I will be right, won’t I 😀
And you understand that a “Grom 2 in the Kremlin” is figuratively speaking against high-value targets, where I do think the Kremlin can be included but there are quite a few more.
21:49 – Johan No.1
Today you were especially lively, MRF, you totally trashed the forum/thread above – I am curious what you think it adds to the discussion to write the following insults to people who are passionate about Ukraine and try to make a difference in the way they can.
-Echo chamber
-Grandiose self-image (now you meant the thread)
-“the fans”
-The selection in the forum is not representative (negative)
-Many in the thread are indifferent to the suffering of ordinary Russians.
-It is good entertainment (condescending)
-a bunch of Swedish full and half MÖPs (condescending)
I am happy to have discussions with you and have gotten used to the fact that it is no use asking you to discuss the substance and not attack the person because you can’t handle that, but now you went off to criticize the whole thread here in a big broadside 😀
21:53 – Johan No.1
MRF – That sounds like a variant of the most classic forecasting mistakes: “Because it has risen so far, we think the curve will continue in the same direction.” Moving the boundaries forward does not mean that it is true that there are no absolute boundaries further away.
Here you really lost me, I think, because the boundary is that Russia must lose the war and the whole West has now stated that very clearly, right?
We don’t know exactly how it will be done but that the curve would not increase, you must still consider that incredible, right?
22:04 – Johan No.1
Continued unrest in Dagestan
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1805691025207574640?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
07:21 – MatsExtrude
Missed your discussion yesterday but have read it now. Agree that the attacks from MRF were unnecessary.
Understand if MRF feels exposed since he often goes against the “majority” but that type of attack doesn’t help.
Think you both are needed and hope the discussions can take place with factual arguments.
08:41 – Johan No.1
Do you remember we discussed why Putin was in North Korea a few days ago.
It seems it was true – Putin was there for soldiers 👍
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1805847451330306184?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
08:43 – Johan No.1
You can actually extrapolate a lot from this.
09:10 – Johan No.1
Why does a country with an endless personnel reserve need soldiers from North Korea?
Why does the West, except for Macron, not want to send any personnel to Ukraine when Russia is sending half of Africa and Asia?
Why hasn’t Putin mobilized in Russia like he did in the winter of 2022 but instead is using the gold reserve to buy soldiers from North Korea?
09:16 – Johan No.1
Wrote in yesterday’s thread to the statisticians, thought maybe a parameter was missing?
JOHAN NO.1
2024-06-25 08:48 – 08:48
To the statisticians – how do low armored losses coincide with RU offensives previously?
Now it is full offensive and we see that in barbar losses.
At previous low points, was the manpower high or low?
Because it affects the losses in tanks, offensive or low point.
JOHAN NO.1
2024-06-25 09:12 – 09:12
Then a low point should coincide with an offensive ending and then X months later they have replenished.
We have previously seen changed operational patterns for tanks and greater interest in recovering stationary tanks that remained.
Instead of sending the tank company first, they have 3-4 tanks supporting the mechanized infantry company.
Most recently we saw another changed pattern – no armored infantry vehicles at all and several attacks only with tanks and mounted infantry.
And then we have seen that they have replenished with T62, T55, T54-55 so older tanks.
And then we have seen older unmodified tanks, that is not from the larger modification program of the T62 we know of.