2024-06-28

13:07 – Johan No.1

A released prisoner of war, the picture says it all I think when he is received by the Ukrainian side.
(warning if you do not want to see a destroyed person).
https://x.com/margogontar/status/1806095799899607236?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Now we have 8 knocked-out IFVs in two days – that is sensationally good and probably the lag from the two major operations we questioned why the list was empty.

Speaking of drones making mechanized combat impossible, here we have a tank working in a rain of drones.
https://x.com/DefenceU/status/1806293979165769787

End of June 2024 it seems ammunition has now been widely distributed to units and all units have now increased firing again – frontline armageddon.
It thus took a year after the West decided to stop deliveries before Ukraine was resourced again – I still find it hard to take in.

We have all been horrified by how effective the FAB bombs have been and they have been credited with quite a lot of RU’s successes in 2024.
An honest discussion would then be to point out that Ukraine now has the same capability on Mig-29 and the French JDAMs. They have probably received about 600 in total (maybe including US JDAMs as well) and then large new production from France on top.
Doesn’t the same apply as when RU dropped FAB bombs that it will greatly facilitate UA?
Now they at least have this capability at the southern front and at the northern front.
Where are the Russian fighter jets at the northern front, where are the Russian IFVs at the northern front?
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kvvrwjanta23

83rd AAR are wiped out (again) this time up at Vovchansk. Now admittedly that is excellent news but what is even better is that they were the second wave of units fighting up there.
They came in after the 72nd and 18th MRD and 47th Tank division who all should have taken losses before the 83rd AAR.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kvwnbsoqm627

69th MRD and 98th AD arrived after the 83rd AAR I think so possibly they are in better shape.

This is starting to look like Vuhledar again when 4-8 brigades were rotated out after a few weeks and a new batch tried to attack.
The Russian offensive has been going on long enough up at the northern front for a large number of brigades to have taken heavy losses.

Then there is an absolute firestorm against rear functions such as vehicle columns, staging areas, assembly areas and billets – everything Ukraine gets a bead on they put a Grom 2 into.

I recall that the 155th Marine Infantry also took losses, Erik14 wrote something about that, right?

One should be very clear that the Russians up at the northern front are taking hellish losses right now even if it does not yet seem to have full impact in the reporting.

If RU wants to try to hold off Ukraine up at the northern front they will eventually need to move 3-4 CA which they will have to pull out from occupied areas just to be able to go on defense adequately along the northern front and that means they will have to give up walkover in some occupied area.

Don’t forget that Zelensky has confirmed a 1:8 loss ratio in favor of UA at the northern front.

A few days ago Ukraine retook a broader area 1km deep in the Kreminna forests and now they have retaken an area NE of Lyman 4km wide and 1km deep.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kvvrz6mrja23

What do you call that?
To me it is offensive operations but probably still with the aim to seize dominating terrain, exploit openings or reconnaissance fights.

But it signals intention from Ukraine’s side, right, and above all it signals poor defense.

What is interesting is that it was in this area the 144MRD was located before they were moved as offensive reserve against Borova and the northern front.
This should reasonably (again) mean that RU had enough for defense but when they rotate away units they become weakened.
The map suggests that RU is weakened between the Kreminna forests and up to Svatove roughly and then somewhere up towards Svatove lies the composite battle group trying to reach Borova.

At the southern front they have the 76th AAD as a task force which means they at least have something, it will be exciting to see if the 76th AAD is moved.
Otherwise along the southern front and up towards Bakhmut it seems Ukraine has enough for an active defense roughly.
But where is the offensive strategic reserve?

Did you know about that thing with Croatia and Russia in yesterday’s post?
If you didn’t, one should probably consider what curated image one has received from the media and who has ensured that image has dominated?
Russia still today after 2.5 years of war has a unique ability to get its narrative out in Western media.
When Russia attacked Ukraine in 2014, LW was pretty much alone in pushing it and some Swedish media went after him instead of Russia, and the rest of the media couldn’t care less.
It was roughly our time’s Czechoslovakia.
Russia has had the capacity to cut careers and it must be absolutely terrible to try to be a politician in Eastern Europe and Ukraine and stand up to Russia.
Zelensky has reportedly survived at least ten (10) assassination attempts on him and that they went after Budanov we also know.
In Ukraine no one probably knows who they can trust and there are moles and saboteurs everywhere. The latest is the initial chaos at the northern front where moved units came to a hole in the ground instead of finished fortifications that the state had paid for – corruption or pro-Russian, take your pick.
Zelensky has done a good job surviving and I think the fact that GUR was on the right side of history has been a great help.

After 2014 the EU forgot about Ukraine but they could handle that war, if the EU forgets Ukraine this time there will be geopolitical consequences. And others too – the EU’s new dominant mafia will be Ukrainian for example.

What has been Russia’s most effective means to try to force Ukraine to lose in the whole war?
Subversive activities and influence operations in the West – there they have had full payoff.
Historians will probably debate how close Ukraine was to throwing in the towel but an 8-month ammunition stop right after an offensive where Ukraine ran out of everything and thought they would get more was probably among the most effective things one could do to get Ukraine to give up.

Gary Kasparov has grown tired of the USA and the risk is that he is right, that the USA is trying to force Putin to the negotiating table.
https://x.com/kasparov63/status/1801328870597214403?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Do you achieve success in negotiations when you have a good negotiating position or when you appear weak and fragile?

The only way to force Russia to a reasonable negotiation is if they start to get seriously worried, right.

You do that best by taking Crimea, making the northern front a threat and threatening to go towards Rostov or Moscow.

Not by stopping giving Ukraine the means to defend itself – that would give Putin motivation to continue because Ukraine and the West appear weak.

Will the USA show its teeth somewhere else?
Doesn’t seem like it.

If Russia loses its refining capability, if Russia’s LV is knocked out, if Ukraine can bomb Russia up to 3000km deep whenever they want, can Ukraine shoot down all of Russia’s missiles?

Does Putin have to bring in foreign mercenaries to continue the war?

Is Russia fighting with T55, BRDM2, and BTR-50?

For Russia to get a negotiated solution that is anything other than the 1991 borders would be an absolute scandal since they are well on their way to losing this war all on their own.
China is probably not too far from intervening and putting pressure on Putin – there is a reason Putin visited Vietnam and North Korea.

Why would the West force Zelensky to negotiate?
What is there to negotiate?
The only thing the West could propose is that Ukraine should cede land and then they could cut off the weapons supply and force Ukraine to do so.
Would the West gain anything from that at all?

Here is the full interview with Zelensky now that isolated quotes are flying around misinterpreting what he said.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1806332168248938513?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Don’t forget that Zelensky has previously confirmed that the war must be decided in 2024 and that they will carry out offensive operations if they can.

I suspect Zelensky is starting to get seriously worried now because in Europe we have Le Pen and Farage who have both made pro-Russian statements for a long time. Asked about Farage yesterday and he has played the usual pay-and-play where he has been paid into his company from a company with Russian connections. That is the instance that has been uncovered.
If I, as the client’s contact on a project, receive a payment from the contractor, do you think once is no time in the client’s eyes?
Then there is a line in Farage’s statements that cannot be misunderstood.

Trump – Biden was a total disaster, for Biden, now that is not the main topic of the thread but it probably worried Zelensky, a link from CNN which is not at all pro-Trump and is concerned. I have put Trump’s chances of winning the election at zero but if Biden is at -5 he wins automatically.
https://x.com/kanekoathegreat/status/1806520378518601855?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Nikki Haley has also woken up.
https://x.com/nikkihaleyhq/status/1806501116110110767?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

This claymore drone could be effective and shows UA’s constant product development
https://x.com/grandparoy2/status/1806413089581289498?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

This has been going on for a while now but first it was the refineries and after 42 attacks oil depots have started to be heavily targeted but also high-value targets within the military industry. Does that mean the goals with the refineries have been achieved and they have been able to broaden their scope?
https://x.com/trenttelenko/status/1806478495217795539?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

And here a greeting from the Ingush jet rebel army that it will soon get lively.
https://x.com/war_noir/status/1806336860165144698?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

16:45 – MatsExtrude

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