2024-07-02

11:33 – Johan No.1

All tank brigades, which are Ukraine’s most offensive resource, are now located either in the north or in the south. If you look at the composition of the tank brigades, they are extremely powerful units when fully manned. It’s always difficult to say what the situation is today, but they have all fought throughout the war and have their own mechanic battalions, for example, making them effective, experienced, violent battering rams.

Here we have another anecdote about acute dehydration among the Russians 🤩
https://x.com/casualdiot/status/1807338622309355700?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Now RU did shoot missiles at a UA airbase with SU-27s which were admittedly decommissioned, but I want to make a point here – RU shoots missiles at Ukrainian airbases where 70% of the missile parts are components from the West. The same West that gave RU the ability to shoot missiles at Ukrainian airbases is stopping Ukraine from shooting missiles at Russian airbases – if you, like me, find it hard to follow the logic in this, you are not alone, you should know.
https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1807876689072214365?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Today’s big news is that 24 F-16s from the Netherlands “are on the way,” the government has signed the export papers. Exactly what that means in terms of arrival is naturally unclear, but the pilots are trained, the aircraft are in good condition, the ammunition is available, and Ukraine has confirmed that they have the infrastructure to receive them – so it should reasonably be in the near future, I think.

Here you have the latest in Russian technology, almost getting run over on a flat field…
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kw7ppbjlqq2f

How to squander a country and a study in megalomania – do you think this will be Putin’s legacy roughly when history is written?
Coal industry down 93% and export of refined products probably permanently stopped, and the arms industry’s exports have likely gone to zero.
The EU’s latest sanctions package was also quite impactful, and before that came the US ban on dollar trade for Russia.
And in Ukraine, Putin is burning all the hardware he has, and if he wants to buy better used equipment, he has to pay in gold bars.
Historically, Russia has behaved in two ways, so there is reason to assume the same will happen here – if violence doesn’t work, they increase the level of violence, and we have seen that.
The other is that when the pressure cooker’s walls bulge too much, the country becomes unstable, and in wars, total collapses are never far away.

I see this a bit like different criminal gangs sharing drug trade in a town. When one gang shows weakness, another takes over – that seems to be how Russian politics works.

Yes, they can always wage small wars, but the bigger wars rarely go well for Russia.
And if you want to see real chaos – read about the New Year’s attack on Grozny in the 90s. History repeats itself.
They survived World War II because the West resourced Russia, and in all the films, they have made an extra effort to only show Russian equipment. But the Studebaker was the only thing they had, so it was shown enough that the average Russian believed it was Russian – someone in the thread explained that to us.
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1807171048468550105?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

What is most interesting is that Putin has thrown away a life of luxury for all the large-size mash jug oligarchs.
Instead of weekend trips to London, it’s long train rides to Guangzhou, dinners with oligarch wives must be absolutely frozen and deathly silent as they pick at glass noodles or cough and sweat because the hot pot was way too spicy.

300 billion EUR is not small change, but Russia has hidden significantly more with the help of Western banks, and it’s only a matter of time before everything is seized, presumably.

Since a Russian oligarch is more hypocritical than an Iranian mullah, they also have their children in the West, their savings in the West, and their homes in the West because no one trusts their buddies back home in Russia.

I thought this would have more effect than it did, so my conclusion is that the West has not done enough yet, and that conclusion must reasonably also have been reached by the West, which is now working on the next series of death blows for topics at oligarch dinners.

The list to THE HAGUE should naturally be increased tenfold as well; all owners of manufacturing of products, including fuels, for the war should end up there. And all opinion makers who advocate ethnic cleansing.

Russia is a criminal clan that happens to be a country, as we usually write, and yes, I understand that oligarchs and siloviki keep quiet because otherwise their families are murdered in London, but at some point a line is crossed, and that line cannot be too far away now, actually.

Then I don’t think Russia manufactures three million shells per year at all because Ukraine has systematically knocked out the production of the products that go into propellant charges, and without that component, there is no finished shell.
A bit like when they knocked out the factory that produces gearboxes for BMP and T90M.
Russia’s military equipment production is probably vanishingly small, and now apparently BTR-70s have started to be sighted at the fronts, so hopefully they try to unload while the vehicle is moving, and then probably the BTR-60 will follow.
If you remember that list from the other day that RU has 5,500 armored vehicles left, a qualified guess is that these are largely older BMP and BTR models, we shall see.

We hope that Zelensky gets permission from the West to capture Belgorod because that would send shockwaves through Russia.
UA has absolutely prepared for an offensive northwards, but as I said, the West has many opinions on many things, and right now the US is in discussions with the new defense minister and will probably be fooled into thinking there is something to talk about as usual. It’s easy to be generous when it’s not your own children who are tortured-raped-murdered.

In front of Vuhledar, RU has a low, a DPR regiment, a SOF unit, a BARS battalion, and an MRR.
UA is there with the 72nd Mech, which has probably neutralized a dozen brigades in total since the Russian command wanted its own Bakhmut success.

When we counted up Ukraine’s 150 maneuver brigades, a SOF probably larger than our entire defense force combined, 19 artillery brigades, and 11 reconnaissance battalions – do you think the West can afford to lose Ukraine?
They are roughly like half of the EU defense force if you add everything up or something, and a betrayed Ukraine taken over by Russia would be a big threat to the rest of Europe. Not to mention the subversive activities when Europe’s new unstoppable mafia spreads and takes over when the world’s largest SOF become private contractors.

Ukraine has a huge bone to pick with Russia, and this will not end well for Putin et al., provided the West keeps its eyes on the ball.

Ukraine has previously expressed that they want good relations with the oblasts surrounding Ukraine. These will also want that, as it is a gateway to the EU market.

Ukraine also claims to have contact with six liberation fronts inside Russia.

Ukraine has also taken a page from Mossad’s playbook and throughout the war has administered justice through summary courts inside Russia. This is how Russia has been operating all along – for example, the defected pilot who was recently murdered in Spain. Budanov has told us that Ukraine will continue until justice is served – I think it is highly proportionate that someone finally takes charge of this and conducts a Mossad-style operation instead of our leaders being scared into silence or bribed.

Fram I Natten has taken on the task of posting drone-killed Russians in the thread. First, RU carries out their attacks which are shattered long before they come within shooting range of the targets, and then the survivors scatter like a handful of ants and UA can calmly pick off all survivors with drone-dropped cluster grenades – is this a battle or are Russian soldiers game hunted and killed somewhat like in a fox hunt?

I don’t really see any actual fighting here, they try to hide and cover their ears but have hidden terribly poorly and die in a big cluster grenade blast.

It can’t be fun to be a drone operator at all but it’s easy to see their reasoning – if the soldier does not surrender and you spare his life, he will be able to shoot one of ours later. Just because the Russian has dropped his weapon and is covering his ears does not make him a less legitimate target.

And Ukraine respects prisoners who surrender. My thought has been that they need all they can get for prisoner exchanges and that they have been very strict about that.

In northern Luhansk, there is also room for more, for example in the northern part of northern Luhansk as soon as RU is forced to pull units down to Kreminna. Since they run stovepipes between front commands, the northern Luhansk commander will have to work miracles going forward.

Erik14 remembers
https://x.com/archer83able/status/1807744475147505680?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Swedish steel bites.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kwalbtwswe27

This one is just to liven up the thread, the kind of thing you get stuck on after a couple of beers. A senior officer visiting so constant damn dinners…
https://x.com/JUSTcatmeme/status/1807565575406661747

So why shouldn’t Ukraine give Russia a whole year to prepare?
Because Russia and China are also developing new technology as soon as they can, here you have RU anti-drone drones.
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1808005094996128154?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

China contributes a lot and over time there will be more coordination between China and Russia in what they need to contribute. China’s manufacturing base is considerable and not to be dismissed.
Here is some kind of machine gun for a tank?
https://x.com/thedeaddistrict/status/1808007390777815525?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Ukraine has the drone advantage.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kw7jzkqtne23

And nothing probably screams emptiness in the barns like this, my god this is starting to get downright embarrassing 😲
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kwbwukuggz2x

So now it should be the right time to increase the pressure significantly and push on until the Russian dam breaks whenever that may be.
If the Azov thrust is not enough (which I believe it is) then the freed brigades should go NE straight into the soft parts of Donbass and wrestle their way back over all terrain over time but by then the war is already decided. Or the war is already decided but it is not over until Putin throws in the towel.
The smaller the area, the better the units and the more indirect fire Ukraine can rain down on the defense.
Negotiations are for weak peace advocates and above all Putin will not negotiate before he feels the noose around his neck, most people understand that by now.

When Putin stands and cries loudly at the UN begging to at least keep Moscow – then the West can start thinking about negotiating.

A negotiation at this point where Putin gets a piece of land and then the West wants to normalize relations with Russia – then we have had our Chamberlain moment and that betrayal of Ukraine’s sacrifice would be unbearable for me, then I will start writing long texts in blogs as revenge.

Zelensky is at least confident of victory.
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1807404977754693710?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

And David D reads the fine print that quantity is a quality in itself just as we have done here in the thread.
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1807407302783185009?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Good Morning Mek
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1807688436477743358?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

We already know there is opposition that wants to attempt a palace coup, we can guess they are biding their time and we can assume it will come suddenly.
A humiliating defeat on the battlefield would be such an occasion, for example. Strategic bombing campaigns are fun but as long as the army holds positions the illusion is maintained that Russia is at war and not on the way to losing.

The next big move will break that illusion.

The coal oligarchs are already crying as their revenues have dropped 93%.
The refinery oligarchs likewise when they cannot export.
And the rest are anxious because Putin demands their private money for the war.
There can’t be many big shots in Russia who are positive about the war anymore, impossible.

-positive -positive thus.

12:08 – MatsExtrude

Thanks for today’s essay!