12:11 – MatsExtrude
Good, positive post! 👍
It’s almost as if one could believe we are already in the Russians’ low point, but we don’t realize it because Ukraine still manages to continue causing them heavy losses.
The Mosin-Nagant rifle still appears to be equipped with a high-tech sight like this:
https://www.shootinguk.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/SPG268.bftp_rifle.moisin_nagant_sniper_m1891_4r2a2461.jpg
Wikipedia states its service time from 1891 – to today..
Quite impressive but of course still embarrassing for Russia.
Maybe it will end with them attacking with high knees and pitchforks?
Longer thread about the smearing of Kallas:
https://x.com/ArturRehi/status/1807899151742521822
11:22 – Johan No.1
The Lions
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1808544693631828283?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Officially confirmed from Ukraine that F-16 will arrive in July.
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1808198902522564632?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
If you still feel that the UN has not completely failed, they have had Jackson Hinkle as a speaker, I couldn’t find the link but Erik14 posted it 😲
Orban was in Ukraine to send a peace envoy from Putin, who is probably starting to panic a little – the peace envoy was in the form of “cease fire now and then we start talking”.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kwcqeeavma2l
A strong Putin would not have sent Orban to Zelensky to probe if a ceasefire is possible, so I may have to reconsider my rock-solid statement from the day before yesterday that Putin is not ready for negotiations yet and that those peace efforts were too weak. The situation in Russia is naturally worse than we think, I elaborate on this below.
I believe Putin desperately needs a ceasefire but Ukraine is just about to accelerate so Russian low point meets violent Ukrainians.
By the way, Serbia, Slovakia, and Hungary are really in trouble as they are probably all dependent on transit gas from Russia and Ukraine has terminated the agreement from January 1, 2025. If there is a bitterly cold winter and with the rest of Europe hating them, it could quickly get cold in their homes and their popularity as leaders could plummet.
Continuing a bit from Jario’s post the day before yesterday under my balanced, short and fact-packed post – Yes, if Ukraine gets free rein to use the long-range ATACMS cluster version against airbases +100km from the border and carries out a successful operation, the capacity to drop FAB bombs has probably decreased by 50% overnight. This would be devastating for the Russians and if followed up the next week by shooting down everyone trying to drop FAB bombs, the air force will completely retract its claws and disappear. Ahkp is also active on the northern front now.
Then the last capability that has severely plagued Ukraine and prevented larger movements disappears. Right now, RU is advancing only with the help of FAB – 800 in a week.
So it is that simple to move forward in the war, about fifty ATACMS in a coordinated operation 😐
The artillery is already broken and right now Ukraine is at the top in the drone weapons competition – conditions could hardly be more optimal but who knows what China will have managed to cook up by summer 2025.
The top in the drone competition can quickly shift because China is lurking in the background.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1808373961639538774?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Then the question is what would hurt Putin the most, losing Belgorod in a week or Crimea in a month, I am starting to think that both would cause irreparable damage but at least the West has very clearly hinted at Crimea and probably went crazy with the ruler as soon as Belgorod was mentioned, if one may guess.
Never forget that we have a positive bias from Russia and a negative bias from Ukraine as Maidan 2 or whatever it is called is running at full speed.
Operation Kaja Kallas now has an entire unit with large resources assigned to smear her because now the flow is full of her corruption and all the nasty things she has done as an evil na…ist.
https://x.com/kajakallas/status/1807763380549157242?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Prigozhin died, Girkin is imprisoned, a bunch of bloggers were shaken up badly and TV personalities were called in for a quarter-hour talk with Putin – Putin has effectively wiped out all criticism of the war.
I recall that blogger Muntz from DPR also committed suicide?
At the same time, the West is anxious and cautious in all its statements so as not to escalate, pro-Russian narratives always get through in the media and RU puts a lot of effort into influencing the West.
We can assume that the condition in Russia, in the Russian army and among the oligarchs is much worse than has been communicated. If the coal industry has gone down by 93%, do you think the fuel or oil industry only has a few percent loss and Russian arms exports have to my knowledge never been discussed but should be zero?
Why did they then start importing refined products from Belarus?
Then we have all the doom-and-gloom with Ukraine – I really don’t see that and I lift every stone. I don’t see 65-year-olds in the videos from Ukraine, no T55s, no motorcycles. I don’t see any protective hunting of Ukrainian soldiers or turret throws. You can be completely sure that the Russians would have made sure those videos circulated if they existed.
Here you have a new train with Russian T62s.
https://x.com/girkingirkin/status/1808111046533542329?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
However, Zelensky has recently released very favorable loss figures for Ukraine, 1:8, 1:4 etc., depending on the area.
1:4 Ukraine wins the war anyway.
The pessimists who try to doom-peddle are simply wrong.
I also did a better check of the units on the northern front and there are some hidden precious metals that at first looked like Territorial or some battalion-sized unit but are actually brigades.
UA has mobilized 4 “Assault Brigades” and “Offensive Guard” where both categories have recruited only volunteers and are explicitly offensive units that shall go first.
Then we have the 17th Tank brigade in the area.
Then the 101st brigade and 4 of the units I thought were battalion-sized are brigade-sized.
And all the volunteer units as before.
On top of that a brigade from the marine corps and the mech brigades which all seem to have at least 1.5 years of experience.
Simply a huge blow up at the northern front if UA wants and it is all elite units, a forest of elite units.
RU does not have nearly enough in the area as we know many of the brigades we see on the unit maps have taken existential losses – at least two rotations, guessing three, more below.
The last rotation was probably units pulled from occupied areas so they have run out of strategic reserves.
I also saw that I was a bit sloppy with my unit compilation the other day 😐 – here and there brigades are not active but still listed – for example the 14th Tank brigade, some mech brigades, and a couple of others. It doesn’t matter in total since I summed up conservatively but right should be right, right?
I also have a theory that some brigades are not on the unit maps but then you should go through militaryland against the unit maps and I have a life even if it doesn’t look like it. The conclusion could be that the strategic offensive reserve is significantly larger than we guessed.
It is absolutely sensational that a country at full war that has been bombed to rubble can rise in this way and calmly set up a defense force that is becoming one of the stronger in the world.
I don’t know if you have understood it but RU knocked out most of Ukraine’s refineries and war industry at the start of the war.
The power infrastructure was targeted in 2023 and the same with the infrastructure for grain when they realized it was hopeless to conquer all of Ukraine.
What remains is probably Enerhodar and the infrastructure for transit gas but that will probably be knocked out on January 1, 2025 as thanks for the active support from Hungary.
Have you noticed that Slovakia has become pro-Ukraine after a certain assassination attempt?
And that Serbia chose cash and has sold huge amounts of ammunition to Ukraine?
It is really only Orban left in Europe who supports Putin.
And Turkey, have you heard anything from them for a long time, I think it has been quiet except for a meeting with Putin but Erdogan used to be out in the media?
Nobody likes a loser, as they say 😀
It was a strange experience to see women, dead tired in torn uniforms, being led away as prisoners of war. I understand that this makes me deeply unequal as a person and I am working on it.
If one may guess, the women are in a devastating minority in the Russian army and are probably continuously abused by their own until they die during pointless attacks. A lottery win is thus that they are captured by Ukraine.
The Russian army is truly a study in pure evil, they have always been a study in pure evil and will probably continue to be a study in pure evil if they are allowed to be a study in pure evil by the West going forward.
Now it seems Trump has been exposed – his strategy is to give Putin the land he wants in Ukraine in exchange for peace. Trump is NOT a friend of Ukraine or the EU. It is still a rumor, it should be added, so nothing to jump on and it could always be smearing but I think there is something behind it, my personal opinion.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kwefv4n5wd23
Highly interesting that China has supported H..as with weapons and tunnel building.
https://x.com/82anderspersson/status/1807875625187004478?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
In front of Horlivka, Ukraine has elite units and the terrain looks favorable for defense, I suspect that the FAB bombs are causing damage here as well and TOS-1 or TOS-2 still exist.
Why does Ukraine not get the US stockpile of thermobaric grenades?
I suspect that RU has reinforced there which means they have pulled units from other front sections but which ones?
The fact that Ukraine is moving units to the northern front where they could easily defend against RU while only slightly retreating on other front sections indicates well-considered decisions. They are not worried about a few meters here or there.
UA does not need 3:1 at the northern front, they could have fought outnumbered as they have done throughout the war.
They are also starting to gain a slight advantage in northern Luhansk.
So for me, it is part of the bigger plan to give up a few kilometers here and there. Note that they have never given up Klishchiivka so they hold the dominant terrain they consider necessary to hold. In fact, Ukraine has recently counterattacked at Klishchiivka.
The 6th CAA has also sent at least one brigade to the northern front when it is located at northern Luhansk
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1808433277813891570?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
This means they continue to weaken in northern Luhansk. I suspect that the 6th CAA also has responsibility between Vovchansk – Urazovo which in that case has further weakened northern Luhansk.
Another area that is starting to look attractive is Lysychansk.
In this corner between Kreminna and Lysychansk, things might start to move.
In fact, when the northern front finally opened up, RU has had to deploy quite a lot up there and if Ukraine starts to increase pressure seriously, several AC will have to be moved up there.
If Ukraine just starts grinding with intent, RU losses in defense will continue to be 1:3 – 1:4 going forward.
In the Kreminna forests, Azov has taken a page from the 3rd Assault brigade’s clearing manual and improved it with constant access to reconnaissance drones as well as conducting full reconnaissance beforehand.
Then when counterattacks come, the drones see it far in advance and they are pushed back.
This is a winning combo until a breakthrough is achieved.
Northern Luhansk would also keep pushing in the big campaign plan until the area was retaken.
David D believes that the following brigades at the northern front have been completely used up.
83rd, 1009th, 1st, 26th, 11th, 7th, 9th, 25th, 2nd Spetznaz – this is not at all unreasonable and constitutes about 50% of the units in the Vovchansk area.
I also think we have a pretty good idea of when new units arrive in the area, I have got the impression, we read about some brigade and then it appears on the unit maps.
Which means that Ukraine has an absolutely deadly numerical advantage in the area, not to mention a qualitative advantage since the remaining Russian units are 3 home guard regiments.
Since Ukraine fights defensively at a numerical disadvantage, they should be able to handle the remaining Russians with 3-4 brigades or thereabouts but they have as many as 17 brigades and 13 battalion-sized or larger units ✊💥
A serious suggestion to Joe Biden, release everything and let Ukraine carry out something spectacular before the election – that’s the kind of thing you win elections with even in the USA as many are positive towards Ukraine.
What happened to the old truth that “if polls go down start a war” – does that suddenly no longer apply?
Right now he is colored by having done too little too late and there are plenty of executive orders and decisions that do not require votes to be taken?
We will see what 2.3 billion USD buys in support for Ukraine – hopefully a lot of bang.
Then follow up by removing geographical restrictions but be clear that the targets must be military and used against Ukraine or something.
Here you have some information about Russian losses, regiments that have been re-established four times 😲
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kwgvh2apkx2z
RU is actively recruiting from youth movements and trying to force them to sign up as soon as they turn 18 – if that doesn’t scream personnel shortage I don’t know what does.
https://x.com/trenttelenko/status/1808567925999091869?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I actually don’t see a war right now, I see a protective hunt for Russian civilians who have been given a uniform, a weapon, and a few months of training. The number of videos is astronomical and on top of that come all the videos of suicides.
https://x.com/gloooud/status/1808424492793835837?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And this one was exciting – Russian with a Mosin Nagant.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kwf6zyrzjx2w
Right now I see –
Protective hunting on Russians, Russians committing suicide and an increasing number of videos of Ukrainian clearing operations which is interesting.
One wonders how many of the suicides are real, and all those who are down with cholera?
Argus touched on this yesterday and it made me remember the very difficult time when I finally had to give up on the casualty figures when Zelensky confirmed 500k KWIA, but what is not counted are the non-war-related losses as Argus writes. Winter 2023, 30% of the wounded in hospitals in Luhansk were non-war-related injuries as we wrote about in the thread after we saw information about it.
Back then it was frostbite injuries, but if it has been replaced by suicide and cholera, maybe we will get there again?
30% of 546,000 is 163,000, so it definitely matters and is counted against the 700,000 that are supposed to be in Ukraine.
Those 700,000, one can guess, include logistics, the air force, the navy, and security forces that are supposed to maintain security in occupied areas, so the frontline is probably significantly weaker, and I don’t think the FSB or Rosgvardia will choose to die in Ukraine when that day comes.
The frontline that Ukraine is fighting against is significantly weaker than the impression we get, is my guess. We hear Budanov say 700,000 and then we see a forest of units on the maps, but a platoon of cooks and vehicle drivers can be cut through quite quickly.
I say it again, do not underestimate Russian election influence – online Reform has unmatched impact and guess if Trump will get the same boost 😐
https://x.com/peterjukes/status/1808364360302989546
I’m quite convinced that Le Pen also has strong support behind her, and Western politicians seem completely helpless. Have we learned nothing from 2016 and Cambridge Analytica?
Yes, this is the infected domestic politics BUT it will have a decisive impact on support for Ukraine.
Then one can never say it enough that Russia actively drives crime in the West, they supply gangs and criminal clans with drugs and weapons.
Here you have a huge shipment of drugs on its way to Russia that had Europe as the final destination via the FSB or other letter agencies.
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1808499121122070988?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And here is something we already knew, Lukashenko and Putin have long fired the migration weapon against Poland and Germany.
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1808151729483010448?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
This is how Ukraine has developed over 10 years.
https://x.com/archer83able/status/1808256749633237064?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And the Russians’ latest technology is sent to the front – the lawnmower drones deadly only against carrots.
https://x.com/bricktop_nafo/status/1808145972649693338?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w