2024-07-07 -

11:58 – Johan No.1

The Lions
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1809577633874575528

What happened to the collapse heatwave, it’s around 20 degrees in Portugal I just saw and that is really low for the season and what a crappy summer it seems to have been in Sweden so far?
Then this kind of thing is always fun, the Great Barrier Reef has never been bigger despite all warnings about the massive bleaching 👍
https://x.com/JensOdlander/status/1809554518310363468

KIMCHI1 brought up yesterday that China’s PLA recently landed in Belarus so I conducted an internationally recognized research expedition to deep dive into this very secretive matter and then world-class analyze all available data;
https://armyrecognition.com/news/aerospace-news/2024/chinese-troops-arrive-in-belarus-on-xian-y-20a-transport-aircraft-for-parade

I found the above link and it feels a bit like when you catch sight of the first scout on a tired horse and know the whole cavalry regiment is half a day away.

End of world-leading analysis.

This should seriously worry the West because now China plans to turn Belarus into a Chinese military base in the EU’s backyard and now it has started. Don’t believe me? Google around a bit.
I often say and gladly that the West can’t afford a long war and the longer it goes the greater the risk of escalation, and I think this shows exactly such a risk that is well on its way to materializing.
It is a transport plane yes but it signals a bigger shift and it is a very bold move from an otherwise cautious China.

China has also set up signals intelligence and bases in Cuba so this appears to be part of a bigger plan now unfolding.
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/china-cuba-suspected-spy-bases-da1d6ec9

Damn sluggish West, if we had won this war we wouldn’t have China on the border with Poland 😐

And I say it again – the US and Germany’s plan not to escalate is as lousy as Chamberlain’s. Now the EU soon has a problem to handle that will become unmanageable.

An absolute stroke of genius by China – a free country asking them to participate in anti-terror operations so they can build up a strong capability in the country, how is the EU supposed to protest that?

If the arch-fools in the USA and damn Germany had just accepted that the risk was too high with this strategy of never escalating we would have avoided this.
Ukraine naturally can’t storm the Russian border because that would risk escalation but the West can do nothing when China establishes itself in Belarus or along the northern border.

The diversion at Belarus and the northern front is important for the whole picture and if China steals that initiative UA’s starting position immediately worsens significantly.

What do you think about Chinese military bases in Hungary, Serbia or Slovakia?
https://www.ft.com/content/5b55ef85-b884-449a-8ccc-c9273cc5e9ff
https://www.rferl.org/a/serbia-xi-visit-china-relations-vucic-russia/32936674.html

It is crystal clear that Belarus is a strategic partner to China and that they will not let this go. We gave it to them when the citizens desperately tried to rise, which historically Czechoslovakia betrayed.

Almost perfect for Lukashenko, China just wants military bases so he can stay in power with a China that ensures the country is secure and that he sits safely – what an enormous win for Lukashenko this is, hats off.

You know when I always write that China can only wage war in the South China Sea and get beaten or take on Russia and India – that analysis did not include strong military bases in Europe. China has simply stolen a page from the US manual and the longer time goes the more military bases will be established.

Their first bases in Africa came a few years ago and they are also establishing in South America. The US has not protested Cuba so we can clearly see that the US is a different US now, right.

And you know what Europe’s leaders are starting to get busy with – crime, gangs, clans, demonstrations at universities, fights right – left and fights between ethnic groups. The hated domestic politics that makes the tolerant intolerant which unfortunately distracts from everything else for our politicians – like China now establishing itself on the border with Poland.

This is so obvious and that we are still discussing the tone in the West towards Russia, China or our domestic problems when we should start showing our claws outward because China dares to land their version of the Globemaster filled with SOF in Belarus is a shift.

Guess what Belarus’s newfound fear of a Ukrainian offensive into the country or terrorist attacks is based on, opening the door for China of course.

If the West keeps sleeping through this for much longer we will have a cold war with China in Serbia, Slovakia, Hungary, Belarus and Königsberg where the US sells weapons and oil to us at an overprice and the only ones suffering are us in Europe after a very expensive lend-lease deal with the US.

The Russia and Ukraine war is just the Trojan horse China rides in on, and China can give these countries prosperity in a way Russia could not so it will be attractive to them.

Belarus was so close to succeeding in its popular revolution. Now there is a great risk that the popular will for liberation will soon be permanently extinguished in Belarus, you feel a bit for them in the middle of all this, thanks USA and Germany you damn clowns 😡

This also explains France’s actions against Russia – Macron recently received a visit from Xi Jinping. The UK has made itself irrelevant in the EU and Europe through Brexit and France has stepped up. That Xi Jinping visited the Russians and France suggests that France has reasonably planned good relations with China?

I usually write that the EU should not underestimate China and that the US always manages best by not playing along in their game – I’m starting to suspect that the EU has just underestimated China and played along in the US game against them, all except France.
The US is a bit like the bank, they are not your friend.

For those of you who think the West will act decisively and crack down on China immediately – yes we see that after 2.5 years of war in Ukraine, or Transnistria, or the Yugoslav war or the West now being kicked out of Africa.

If a country asks China to station “police” there to help them fight terrorists the West has an uphill battle. Despite all, 40-50 countries want to join BRICS and the narrative falls apart completely if fair play from the West is not quite successful. China is probably challenging our self-imposed democratic coat in a unpleasantly clever way right now.

Welcome to the next step up the escalation ladder – the longer this war goes on the more steps up we will take. The US and Germany’s strategy not to escalate is a disaster for everyone except maybe the US who can once again get rich on lend-lease and sell oil to a besieged EU 😡

Accentmannen writes that between Bakhmut – Siversk there are 650 tanks and 1850 IFVs. First of all, tanks are very low and secondly, if you extrapolate that over all fronts it is probably about the same number as before except tanks have gone down. Then you have to subtract +30% for technical failures – probably more.

Here are the ones we have relied on throughout the war stating that there are 700 tanks left in acceptable condition in the depots, there you go!
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kwomwzonyf2x

Here it is said that there are 2000 tanks at the fronts further down.
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1809662577250595025

And then that RU completes 60 per month.
https://x.com/anno1540/status/1809648220198346881?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Shortening “stridsvagn” (tank) is usually written by someone in the thread, it certainly looks like that 🤣

Also according to Accentmannen – the 98th AD has been wiped out and withdrawn from Bakhmut, so they are no strong reinforcement up at the northern front where they are now.

Keep in mind that half of the brigades we see up at the northern front are likely wiped out and that UA according to Zelensky has taken 8 times fewer losses than RU, so it looks very promising up there –
The only thing holding Ukraine back is that the West does not allow an invasion of Russia, in my opinion.

According to Perpetua, who believes in a RU attack on Siversk, RU should also prepare for an attack just west of Vuhledar.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kwonmd5khm2y

In this area, UA is not weak at all and for RU to have any chance, they must transfer forces from other front sections, same as against Siversk – so where they pull units from is interesting.
The brigades located there were severely decimated during the spring offensive but, like all others, have had time to rest and re-equip.
Ukraine also has the dominant terrain as usual.

Then against Siversk stands the 109th AD currently with 3 regiments which surely are no more than a thousand per regiment. We will see which other units are transferred there.

It seems like UA is actively setting fire to the left bank of the Dnieper, I see a lot of videos right now. That would be smart if you want to disrupt the defense and then attack perhaps?
Old war trick from Roman times or even earlier?

Interesting thread about how the southern front fell in the first days of the war, no news for those in the thread who have neglected work for 2.5 years but well worth a few minutes.
https://x.com/clement_molin/status/1809210765120880872?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Ukraine is starting to run out of targets as they are now hitting gas stations, looks good.
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1809678552754762190

Ukraine’s anti-drone drone weapons work 👍
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1809558549963436390?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

This is how good the information RU got from Airbus was, I understand why it has come up on the agenda.
https://x.com/vcdgf555/status/1807517652648427573?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

If I were the West, I would remove ALL geographical restrictions, send everything Ukraine points out and pray to the gods that they still have the energy and motivation to finish this war, otherwise the EU will soon have a new cold war to deal with, not from Russia but from China.
A SOF unit is nothing but if it starts to be thousands of Chinese soldiers in Belarus, the opportunity is lost.
Then you can actually solve Hungary, Serbia, and Slovakia by playing hardball BEFORE China establishes itself there, that window is not closed yet.
I say it again – the West cannot afford a long war and the US and Germany’s strategy not to escalate is absolutely sh1t 😡

18:27 – Johan No.1

Orban soon in China

https://x.com/panyiszabolcs/status/1809981225651610035?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

18:45 – MatsExtrude

Thanks for the yellow wall!👍 (Though that part about the barrier reef felt a bit out of place…)

Let’s hope they start taking China seriously and begin thinking about how to act.

18:57 – Johan No.1

RU has deployed new landing ships in the Baltic Sea.

https://x.com/auonsson/status/1809931735620075725?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

22:48 – Johan No.1

Orban has managed to take a position on the Cyprus issue, the EU would never have given him the chairmanship gavel, that would have gone straight to his head.

https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1809931305347391550