11:55 – MatsExtrude
Thanks!
Maybe it is so bad that Ukraine is not that important to the US. The fear of escalation, even though the risk is small (if we talk WW3 and nuclear weapons), is greater than the desire for Ukraine to win. The US may be more concerned about China and is also engaged in what is happening in Isr*el, a conflict that also threatens to spread.
It seems they would rather let Ukraine die a slow death than risk anything, even if they probably prefer that it is Russia that has to give up.
But I hope that it is only the election standing in the way and that it will sound different afterwards (if the Democrats win).
12:10 – Johan No.1
A relevant question, we have had major campaigns for most things but Russia’s war of extermination in Ukraine is a blind spot for many who dutifully report so they cannot be accused of completely ignoring it. But the big PR machine that usually kicks in is completely absent.
The same I see with the recolonization of Africa that China and Russia are amusing themselves with, everyone is completely silent.
And then Wagner’s rampages are the worst possible.
Or that the environmental movements never go after China and Russia.
12:22 – Johan No.1
The optimal thing is therefore that the country is broken up into smaller parts so that the future threat becomes smaller.
Why do we always have to paint the devil on the wall with Russia at the slightest thing?
We should let Ukraine win and then whatever happens with Russia happens, we (the West) should not try to control it at all.
The 1991 borders as soon as possible and then the West backs off – that is the absolutely least problematic outcome of this war and the sooner the better.
So we are talking about international law here, so nothing spectacular at all, but the discussion after 2.5 years is constantly the great fear of everything.
What happened when Russia was about to start piracy in the Black Sea?
The West wanted to give Russia access to SWIFT if they refrained, Ukraine said fuck-it and sank and chased away the Black Sea Fleet to Novorossiysk. Did Putin start a nuclear war for that as he promised if anyone touched his ships?
18:14 – Johan No.1
Since I haven’t had much interest in the discussion about losses, the below could be seen as a somewhat neutral reflection on the matter.
Over time, we have more or less agreed that UA loss figures come from confirmed (photo) observation of a killed, wounded, or otherwise rendered unusable barbarian. We have also agreed that it is KWIA even though it was very hard for some and it took until Zelensky went out with a figure that matched the daily report and said KWIA.
How does an authority, security service, or other organization outside Ukraine form an opinion about Russian losses?
The only two parties that have a good understanding of the matter are Ukraine and Russia, and Russia lies like crazy but Ukraine has a fairly accurate ballpark figure. Ukraine tries to be honest in its reporting, as we have seen in individual incidents.
That the USA, MoD, Medusa, BBS or others release figures is therefore irrelevant because they do not have better data than Ukraine.
Ukraine has previously not wanted to disclose its own losses but it has started to come out, however, this is not something we discuss in the thread.
The other day we heard from Accentmanne that UA has laid a drone cover over the northern front which among other things mines the forests remotely and where UA hears all night how Russian reinforcements and logistics run over the mines (the explosions) they have laid on the access roads – these losses can hardly be included in UA reported loss figures, right?
Or that mother ammunition depot in Voronezh that left a moon crater – how many depot workers were there?
Sometimes we get a flash like when the depot down by the Sea of Azov behind the southern front was blown up and “hundreds of Kadyrovites” were lost because they guarded it. A rumor and nothing that was included in the daily loss list the days after since there was no temporary increase.
Then we have non-combat related injuries that no one reports and winter 2023 it was “30% of wounded in hospitals in Luhansk oblast were frostbite injuries”. We have suicides, accidents, desertions, tortured and murdered by their own officers, tortured and murdered by other soldiers, tortured and murdered in general, surrenders and diseases and in previous wars this figure is around 30% or something when it is good?
Right now we have a cholera epidemic sweeping through the southern front for example and which should decimate the ranks quite hard when we see videos of Russians drinking from puddles with corpses in them.
Then during 2024 this has decreased a bit because the Russians send amputees back to the fronts.
Now this is no big deal for me as I said but if one were to speak a bit neutrally on the matter, the daily KWIA line is significantly understated and you are doing well.
18:17 – Johan No.1
Of course, I forgot that when HIMARS ran its first campaign in 2022 and then continued, the drone weapon was less developed and the likelihood that there was ocular observation at all hits in the depots and bases was lower at that time and until maybe mid-2023, so it was probably even more underreported.
21:04 – Johan No.1
Russian submarine blocks Bornholm ferry
https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1812114237730312444?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
10:53 – Johan No.1
The Lions
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1811753765143294101?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1811839094944858276?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Leaving the Baltics because there is nothing new to discuss and I understand that my disappointment with the West is starting to get a bit repetitive, so I will phase it out fairly soon.
For now, I am waiting for one of two things – either the West gives in or Ukraine throws out the script and steps on the gas. I don’t think Ukraine will be able to accept that this will continue for several years as a country, and before they throw in the towel, it would be quite Ukrainian to make an attempt – or to get the EU on board.
Zelensky was reportedly very disappointed after his conversation with Biden, while Biden’s Twitter is flooding with messages about how he is the savior of the free world, making sure Ukraine wins every day of the week and always puts children first. You almost have to look hard to find a bigger discrepancy, election win above all 😐
https://x.com/POTUS/status/1811819068741013818
https://x.com/POTUS/status/1811598964321374355
But at the same time, he could actually be doing everything he claims on Twitter, so it’s still a bit strange.
Of all the crap the West has done, probably the absolute worst was that Ukraine in 2023 would go first with the newly established brigades trained by the West – they were inexperienced with young officers and suffered heavy losses.
Units like the 3rd Assault Brigade and other elite units did not go first across the fields and they had not been given the latest equipment – that had been pooled together for the 9th and 10th Army Corps trained by the West.
I’m starting to wonder if NATO commanders had overconfidence in themselves – we train new brigades and equip them and then they will be the best Ukraine has, they are unbroken and completely shaped by us?
The answer is that the NG offensive guard, experienced maneuver brigades (82nd airborne, the Marine Corps, and Tank brigades) and the storm brigades are the best Ukraine has and they should have gone first with the latest equipment and especially where Ukraine wanted to attack.
The 3rd Assault Brigade fought continuously for 5-6 months at Bakhmut and performed miracles – trench-clearing demigods.
Below is a rather wild theory I know, but I’m finding it increasingly difficult to find explanatory models for the US’s actions and a hidden motive like this could be an explanation 😀
What’s interesting is that the US is ready to impose sanctions on China but not escalate with Russia.
Here is China’s counter-comment which actually has relevance, right – all components in Russian missiles come from the West, aren’t you the ones really supporting Russia? Then China has given Ukraine the drone weapon in the form of components for the drones since much of it is manufactured in China.
https://x.com/upholdreality/status/1811576894002782652
Is escalation with China okay for Kirby, the same Kirby who wants to avoid escalation with Russia at all costs?
Or the long-range potential nuclear-capable missiles in Germany – which is the bigger escalation, these or knocking out the Russians’ fighter jets?
Russian statements suggest they see this as potential WW3 escalation, which Kirby wants to avoid at all costs – how does this fit together?
I have seen throughout the war that the path to de-escalation is to hit Russia hard and keep China calm, then win the war and de-escalate globally. The air goes out of the BRICS mafia when they see how painful it is to try to stick their heads up. When Ukraine went on the offensive in 2023 or autumn 2022, China kept very quiet.
The US is clearly keeping the war alive in Ukraine while being ready to go hard against China.
We have now, over a few days, clearly shown so many contradictions in the US strategy that they can’t even believe it themselves.
This is not logical to me and the only reason I can see is that they are trying to drag China (which they themselves willingly oppose, I should add – they are no victim in this!) with the hope of breaking China’s back so that their threat as an economic power decreases.
That the US doesn’t like China gaining economic ground is no secret and maybe the US’s hidden motive is to break their back?
Ukraine then becomes a pawn in a geopolitical game.
Don’t know if this is true but 40 banks in China have gone bankrupt, some caution on that.
https://x.com/ChuckCallesto/status/1811722220135137691
It would then become a global conflict because the US wants to stop feeling economically threatened by China.
As said, wild speculation but the explanation Kirby has given us simply doesn’t add up.
They broke Japan’s back in the 90s, for example.
It is also interesting that Western leaders constantly think they have freedom of action and then get scolded by the US on the spot. Now Denmark (twice), the UK, and Sweden have experienced what happens if you go too far and loosen geographical restrictions – a quarter-hour call with the US.
I recall the Netherlands also had to revise their statements and Poland has been slapped on the fingers for daring to suggest that Ukrainian children should be saved. Meanwhile, Biden tweets as much as he can that he is doing everything to save Ukrainian children 😲
Is it then not clearly communicated enough from the US so the rest of the West misunderstand what applies, or are they acting like teenagers testing the waters, or do they believe they have national decision-making authority and have to learn the hard way what it means to have American components in their weapons or to have bought American weapons?
But at the same time Biden shakes hands with Orban as his best buddy, while Western leaders won’t show up at his meetings in protest.
Never in my life has this statement been clearer – “laws only apply to those who follow them.”
The actual consequences for Russia doing everything that Ukraine is not allowed to and blatantly ignoring everything are close to zero, the sanctions are almost ineffective, we know that by now.
The EU still buys Russian LNG, for example.
And those who follow Putin and betray the EU are doing better and better – Orban, he’s starting to reach Palme status here or our time’s Nelson Mandela.
https://x.com/BalazsOrban_HU/status/1811764586053333409
https://x.com/spiritofho/status/1811446524208914880?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
There should be one or two MENA countries now considering what the consequences would be if they attacked I..el again – will the US really support or will I..el be sacrificed on the altar of non-escalation?
Now don’t confuse this sad situation with Ukraine doing badly at the fronts because it absolutely is not, and Ukraine is not affected at all by an invasion of Estonia and Latvia, that becomes a problem for the EU to handle and maybe, on the contrary, Poland will have had enough then.
At Kherson, the Russians are starting to get seriously thirsty, UA pre-combat near the front is enormous, and the oil depots continue to burn. These are oil depots for the war that are burning.
https://x.com/friaukraina/status/1811964296223449238?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Now that the F-16s are coming, the million-dollar question is whether they are allowed to take out the FAB bombers that drop from Russian territory?
The Air Force is allowed to do that, for example, but do they dare to advance far enough?
And RU drops 3,000 FAB bombs per month, so it is a highly unpleasant weapon.
I hope and believe that Ukraine will reach the point where they disregard all rules of engagement because it is clear to them now that the US will slow things down so that the war never ends. This year’s window for an offensive is about to close, and their offensive blow up at the northern front will soon be meaningless.
The West has already hinted that Ukraine should attack Crimea, and by controlling how Russian capabilities can be taken out, RU will continue to be strong at the northern front beyond the 100 km line, but in the occupied areas down by Crimea, they must drop FAB bombs on UA territory and can then be taken out.
Ukraine has endured a year without ammunition when they did everything the US told them to do, and before that, they lost the chance to take out the VDV and lost an offensive because they listened to the US. Listening to the US is losing; the US does not want the best for Ukraine.
Ukraine faces the reality that the West will not help them to a win if they do everything the West asks of them.
And above all, if this drags on too long, the people will turn against Zelensky if he complies with US directives. There is already an opinion against him, and it is not exactly difficult for Russian psyops to spin on this.
What would be the consequences if the US and Germany lifted all restrictions –
-Ukraine could, in a major operation, severely decimate RU fighter aircraft, ATGMs, FAB bombers, AWACS, and some TU95s.
-They could then begin to move mechanized at the northern front, and anyone with two eyes can see that there are infinitely many penetration points at the northern front and that UA has a 3:1 numerical advantage.
-UA offensive would be preceded by pre-combat with all capabilities against targets that so far have not needed to stay hidden, so large yield per shot.
-When the threat to Belgorod, or if Belgorod is captured, becomes large enough, panic spreads in the Kremlin, and they are forced in panic to move units from occupied areas up to the northern front.
-Ukraine can then use its strategic reserve to exploit weak points that have arisen down in the occupied areas and retake territory.
This is what the US and Germany actively oppose. How do they think Ukraine will be able to liberate its country, or have they not thought about it?
Speculation of the higher order – Ukraine collapses and Russia manages to negotiate its way to the terrain up to the Dnieper (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Crimea, but now it is harder with Kharkiv oblast because they failed), and a million Ukrainian soldiers start looking for alternative employment, which becomes crime in the West controlled by Russia. Europe’s new unstoppable mafia.
RU also negotiates a land bridge to Transnistria, and Moldova is the next country to have popular uprisings.
RU attacks the Baltic states and challenges NATO, which feels that peace in our time is more important than retaking the Baltic states, so Estonia and Latvia are lost.
China is building up greatly in Belarus, in Poland there is constant sabotage, and over time a Russia-friendly party becomes stronger through the usual Russian influence operations.
Hungary, Slovakia, and Serbia are all in the Russian-Chinese sphere.
Crime is running rampant in the EU, a considerable group has become revolutionary Marxists who do as the French and take to the streets throughout the EU.
(already now it is the same Qanon operation but now against the corrupt elite in the EU, it is in full swing).
China continues to buy up infrastructure and companies in the West, and as soon as the acquisition is completed, manufacturing is moved to China.
The US will sell weapons to the EU, they will sell refined products, oil, and LNG to the EU, and they are probably quite satisfied with a slightly weaker EU that is easier to control.
The US has escaped two world wars, and the third seems likely to be near Europe as well, so why would this be existential for the US?
I continue my journey with UA brigades, here is the 3rd Assault brigade which is an elite unit.
It consists of seven (7) battalions 😲
https://militaryland.net/ukraine/armed-forces/3rd-assault-brigade/
900 people per week apply to join the brigade.
https://cepa.org/article/the-elite-ukrainian-brigade-everyone-wants-to-join/
Putin’s meeting with Kim Jong Un 🤣
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kx5jly5av42a
ATESH has been rampaging in Kherson, you almost get the feeling that they have now been activated.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kx5mujco5c2y
70,000 Russian losses during May – June. Considering that losses have been like this since autumn 2023, many Russian soldiers have gone through the grinder here and come out as KWIA. We see more and more videos of soldiers from Asia or Africa, I think.
https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1811835495514542101
Then we have this about the Russian Milbloggers who are starting to become critical of the war. Don’t forget that for this, you go to labor camps for re-education, and I have posted two prominent bloggers who have written things that previously led to suicides. And Perpetua sees the same thing. Some opposition has reasonably started to move.
https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1811781014387077307
The stress burns out those who sit at home and wait.
https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1807409544852861079?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
National Guard equipped with Novator vehicles.
https://x.com/praisethesteph/status/1807715866466763019?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
1009th brigade in Vovchansk, often forgotten in Twitter compilations of lost units
https://x.com/albafella1/status/1807542896628802005?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Museum employee released after six years of Russian captivity
https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1807048789334647091?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w