11:04 – Johan No.1
Didn’t get to comment that we shouldn’t draw such big conclusions about the US denying Ukraine entry into the northern oblasts according to NYT because it could be disinformation.
Yes, it’s a bit tricky, without the US it would have gone worse but since the start of 2024 the US has actively held back Ukraine and the EU from potentially war-winning moves and is not clear about why.
It’s heading towards full war in MENA and the US wants to go harder on China so the reluctance to escalate doesn’t feel entirely credible, especially since the US stops things that definitely wouldn’t have escalated anything, only won the war.
We know from Zelensky or others that;
– Ukraine was forced to withdraw VDV at Kherson.
– The West was not allowed to send F-16s when they wanted because of the US.
– The US didn’t want to send tanks and IFVs for a long time.
– Poland was stopped from sending Mig-29s early and sent them as spare parts.
– Poland was stopped from shooting down missiles over Ukraine from Polish territory.
– Ukraine was not allowed to enter the northern oblasts.
– Ukraine was not allowed to strike oil infrastructure before it was changed to refineries being okay.
– Ukraine was not allowed to carry out attacks on Novorossiysk before it was changed.
– Ukraine was forced to attack at Tokmak 2023, which was the best fortified part of the entire fronts.
– The West was not allowed to let Ukraine fire into Russian territory with weapons they donated that contain components from the US, then it was changed to over 100 km.
– Ukraine was not allowed to fire on Russian soil beyond 100 km.
– We also know that the UK’s Storm Shadow cannot be used inside Russia because they sent letters to France and are waiting for a response.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kydgd2zfv623
We can guess that rumors are true
– Poland was stopped from sending soldiers to Ukraine.
– Sweden was not allowed to send Gripen because of the US.
We have heard rumors that the entire West’s SOF is in Ukraine from someone in the thread, we have heard rumors that there is an analysis team of 100 people in Lviv, we have heard rumors that NATO officers have directed many decisions,
We know that,
Key personnel from the UK have accompanied weapon platforms to see that Ukraine follows the rules for the revealed Scholz 🤣
Western and US officers and key personnel were already secretly in Ukraine before the war started, the International Legion is full of (recently) retired veterans fighting for Ukraine, key personnel have accompanied weapon systems to ensure that Ukraine uses them correctly AND does not violate current restrictions.
The US could have ensured that Ukraine won already in 2022, 2023 or now in 2024.
We have speculated why and we must continue to guess, the US itself says it is out of fear of escalation but they seem to have no problem escalating against China.
Sweden sent our AWACS around May 29, 2024 and Gripen was not sent then because Ukraine would not be able to handle receiving two systems at the same time.
Today is July 28, 2024 and we have not seen any F-16s on site in Ukraine.
Don’t you think two months would have been enough to get Gripen operational in Ukraine?
Here is the support,
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/
Don’t forget that 90% of the latest support package went to states in the US and that the US has accounted support at new price when they sent some Bradleys that had to go directly to the workshop. I don’t know how countries in the EU have actually accounted their support but I guess Denmark hasn’t accounted new price because they have booked the cost they paid to buy second-hand equipment and send to Ukraine for example.
And if you look at what Denmark has sent in offensive weapons, it’s a huge amount.
https://www.fmn.dk/en/topics/operations/ongoing-operations/danish-military-support-for-ukraine/
Now today the summer season 2024 is coming to an end and Ukraine left the meeting in the US disappointed according to rumors, the US was very clear to Putin that they did not want to escalate so Putin calls everything escalation right now and he knows exactly which parts of his country he does not need to defend.
Ukraine is standing with an offensive blow up at the northern front and doing nothing while they are retreating at other fronts and there is a rumor that the US stopped them. Yes, it could be Russian psyops but I have written a whole page above about everything the US has stopped throughout the war so the likelihood that it is true is high.
I strongly maintain that the longer this war goes on the higher the risk of global escalation and now I..el is just about to attack Lebanon and Iran so MENA is heading straight into an interstate war with the highest risk that other states will be dragged in.
The US is also raising the tone against China and threatening consequences if China continues to support Russia in the war. The longer the war goes on the greater the risk that the US will impose these consequences on China with possible global conflict as a result.
It is likely that if the war in Ukraine can be ended with a humiliating defeat for Russia, there is a good chance that China will pull back and since the intensity of the war has been so high the West’s arms factories have been working overtime and we may get our era’s great peace for 80 years.
Beyond this it’s no use speculating, we will get a cold war anyway against Russia but maybe we can avoid a global cold war or a global war.
China guesses just like everyone else and a totally crushed Russia will seem deterrent to them. Russia guessed completely wrong regarding Ukraine and the West guessed completely wrong regarding Russia. The chance that China does not understand the West’s actual capability is high but if we show weakness it will motivate China to escalate globally.
Then maybe we won’t avoid direct conflict with China, who knows, but it’s no use sacrificing Ukraine on the altar of goodness or trying to play God when you can’t possibly predict what will happen in a year anyway, one should do what is right now.
11:48 – MatsExtrude
Thanks! 👍👍👍
If falconry is not good enough, I suggest sabrage, since they will be used to eliminate FAB, their stupid (but still effective) bombs (even if it happens indirectly).
There is still time for offense, F-16s are coming in September (does anyone believe in August?) we might get a repeat of the Kupiansk sprint.
We’ll see if the intensity regarding the fight against the rear lines will increase next month.
By the way, I appreciate your user-friendly genius move to link to Twitter via posts on Bluesky, it gets extra exciting when you have to wait for an extra click before seeing the post!
11:51 – MatsExtrude
It is frustrating and incomprehensible, I hope that the USA at least steps up when the election is over. If the Democrats win, it will be Trump, no one has any idea in what way it will probably go to hell.
11:53 – Johan No.1
I have no better solution because all the fun is on Twitter and I chose Bluesky as the platform for the war.
Yes, maybe I should post the links directly but usually I first upload them on Bluesky and then write the posts.
I will improve immediately 👍
11:54 – Johan No.1
Was it a record in artillery today?
12:00 – MatsExtrude
It’s okay, I was just teasing a bit. Keep doing as you usually do!
12:36 – MatsExtrude
Yes, maybe an increase is underway!
13:29 – Johan No.1
I hope so too
13:43 – Johan No.1
To some extent I can agree, the EU’s armed forces are actually considerable even if they are understaffed and underfunded today.
However, consider that a thin picket line of Ukrainians has done quite well here and that minefields have proven effective even in 2024.
And that the thread is completely unanimous that the EU’s armed forces are vastly superior to Ukraine’s.
-Russia will not get one meter into the EU provided existing units are moved east and the border is mined.
I also don’t believe Russia will ever escalate for the simple reason that they threatened with it when their Black Sea fleet was sunk, the refineries were knocked out, they have retreated from 50% of the conquered territory, they have lost obscene amounts of materiel, Prigozhin attempted a coup. Nothing led to escalation.
I also want to make the point that Putin is currently threatening world war if the USA moves long-range missiles to Germany in 2025 as promised. Is the USA’s action escalation or not?
It is rather the case today that Russia’s ability to escalate is less than it was in 2022.
I’m not saying you are wrong, you have probably described how the USA thinks but I believe that the USA is not looking out for Ukraine’s or the EU’s best interests here.
I also believe that this strategy they apply could lead to a global conflict.
They simply do not “nip it in the bud.”
In MENA, the USA has a huge problem since their capability is from ships and they have proven quite vulnerable now in 2024.
But then Israel has nuclear weapons if it goes too far.
Yes, you are right, the USA is responding to China. My impression is that China will continue to escalate until it stops, that is somewhat standard behavior for rogue states that have gotten a taste.
If it stops for Russia in the most brutal possible way, China will likely brake.
11:01 – Johan No.1
We’re doing a bit of nostalgia to get the thread in the mood, seems to be 500-600 comments per day in the middle of summer so the war is not completely forgotten after all.
https://x.com/Kalla_Kriget/status/1817642418076070171
The Lions
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1812042587236077857?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Higher level conscription cleansing
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kyfux2oj5j2d
We have to think about what MXT asked for – what will it be called when the F-16 devastates Russian targets?
Falkonera was suggested by MXT but he is excused for valid reasons but nothing we need to bring up in the thread.
After all, this is our chance to establish an expression that the whole world will use 😲
Just like when May 4, 2023, became established by the world’s historians as the start of the spring offensive.
Now ETC has joined the discussion about our military support should be made public and not kept secret. It is possible that the 10 I have read have jumped on this article but it feels like it is driven with a purpose.
ETC has previously tried to discredit support to Ukraine so you can start to see a certain red thread here maybe.
https://x.com/perbj/status/1816926760509886957?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
A bit of a mixed bag, the Russian offensive at Sumy seems called off if you go by Ukrainian units that have been pulled away.
At the southern front, Ukraine has reinforced and we have heard that Russia is pulling units from other fronts there so potential Russian offensive.
F-16s are now supposed to arrive in August, at least I feel that Gripen would have been phased in if they had come May 29 but then I’m just sitting in my parents’ basement playing Rise of Nations and knowing nothing.
Also newly established “assault battalions” have received newer fragmentation protection and for those who have read the thread we know that Ukraine has an enormous amount of fragmentation-protected units now even if I miscounted on PBV302 😀
We also know that Russia is fighting far beyond its sustainable capacity according to previous discussion and all information about recruitment bonuses is starting to make it more attractive than working on an oil rig.
We are heading towards another record month in most categories and I am inclined to agree with whoever it was in the thread who felt that Sirsky’s figures on Russia’s remaining tanks and IFVs were high.
If they had 3500 tanks and 8500 IFVs at the fronts we would have seen significantly more mechanical failures than we do.
We are definitely heading towards a Russian low point again where they run out of gas and I am quite worried that they are holding back the F-16s as long as they do here if I’m honest.
Ukraine has an offensive blow waiting and we have for months nagged about the critical line of F-16s which were first supposed to come in May, then they pushed out Gripen, then in June, then “in a few days”, then in July and now in August – how can Zelensky and Sirsky plan anything at all with such a constantly sliding schedule?
I was positive when all the materiel and ammunition arrived and F-16s were to be delivered in May because there were obvious preparations for offensive operations and then Ukraine started gathering units up at the northern front and an operational security cover was laid over the Dnepr.
But then the air force never comes even though they are fully fueled and waiting in Romania. You can speculate about the number of Gripen that would have come and if it would have made a difference but that probably doesn’t serve much purpose because they are not in place so they wouldn’t have interfered with the F-16s that were supposed to arrive then on May 29…
We exclaimed “now there will be dehydration” when the temperature went towards 30 in June and now the logistics seem to have completely collapsed here, Russian units get 1 liter of water/day.
It pays off to knock out the logistics with 60 soft vehicles per day.
https://x.com/chriso_wiki/status/1817577533128536451?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The condition of the units at the southern front is probably absolutely terrible – worst units, worst materiel, most dehydration, highest drone superiority for Ukraine.
There are good and bad times for everything and now we are definitely heading towards a good time again and I sincerely hope that the US does not deny Ukraine everything that is fun.
Oil depot in Kursk droned and another refinery yesterday according to the thread’s own target Erik14.
https://x.com/friaukraina/status/1817408731681869970?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
This is a great film and Witches from Bucha, morning hangover and all 👍
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kydgibjd2r2d
Some caution on this one because Cossackgundi may have jumped on something but the account itself is reliable.
https://x.com/cossackgundi/status/1817693529373577679?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Now everyone has read that Wagner went and died in Mali but that’s not the interesting part – the interesting part is that they are on site with fragmentation-protected vehicles and attack helicopters and participate in another country’s civil conflict as a fighting party. Now that we have films of lots of dead Russians and happy Tuaregs it is indisputable.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kydh4figsb2d
Between them now are China and Russia in most countries in Africa with some exceptions.
As a rule, they support the regime or rebel group that is willing to sell out their country and their people to them and turn a blind eye to all abuses.
Russian subversive activity to radicalize has taken place in at least 16 African countries from 2022 onwards. I have seen how it has shifted in Nigeria the past year – now the French are the evil themselves and Russia is for decolonization.
The UN has fallen
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kydh6s4jhe2p
Seymour Hersh was an early Assange, looking at all the scandals he revealed there is reason to believe he got information from intelligence services, maybe.
Now he is very negative towards the Democrats and Obama, interesting 🧐
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kyfv2autm323
You can thus see who comes out as pro-Trump but who previously were anti-war and anti-globalism and assume that they are working for the Russians for those who have the energy.
I..el is now going to war which will be against Lebanon, h..as, Houthi and Iran. Maybe also Egypt and someone else. You have to give them that they never back down from a fight but this is an escalation that no one can really oversee and we know that the drone weapon has in one stroke changed how wars are fought and that Russia is one of the countries that understands it. We can only hope that I..el understands that Russian know-how in drone weapons now exists with their enemies.
The US CAG is fun but they are one anti-ship missile away from being moved and then I..el will be pretty lonely.
Anonymous has established that Twitter suppresses criticism of Trump.
https://x.com/anonopsse/status/1817450891655389185?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Here is another one of those films that you have just been waiting to see, just like with the whales that came up to the surface and sank a boat.
https://x.com/kofromatatf/status/1817539688208454131
If you want, like me, to have a positive start to the morning, watch this
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kyfvaufuvz2d
David D summarizes the aircraft losses, they are sharply increasing again. It also shows that not everything is included in the daily lottery numbers.
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1817548389032079741?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
This one is interesting, not because he paints but because there are 80 years between the crises. The whole film is a bit strange but he sums it up well.
I have felt that after a major conflict everyone understands what it means but when enough generations have passed the awareness disappears and you go against it again.
Which is exactly what I think we have seen in the last 2-5 years, politicians sleeping through this.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kyfvwy777b2l