11:05 – MatsExtrude
Thanks for the yellow wall!
That rugby lady could have completely unarmed cleared out Russian trenches before they even realized what had happened!
Maybe those who say it takes 2 years to train on modern planes are right and that is why the F-16 never shows up? We will see if they are right.
Regardless, it is really about time we start training!
If it takes two years, you might as well take someone who is not already a pilot (so that there are no pilot shortages in Ukraine).
11:12 – MatsExtrude
What the heck, it actually takes 6.5 years to train from scratch. You could almost think you have to start by building your own Gripen in the meantime.
Respect to all combat pilots!!!
It is a specialized vocational training so you have to assume it is not like many other educations where 90% of what you learned is wasted when you start working.
11:19 – MatsExtrude
Sorry to all Satanists, I blame Johan, he who started it!
15:04 – Johan No.1
Oh, first you blaspheme Satan and everyone who can be offended in a developed nation and then you blame me.
A new character trait in you for sure 🧐
15:31 – Johan No.1
I don’t want to seem chicken but they have just brought in two Ropucha ships into the Baltic Sea from the Northern Fleet.
If they are now starting a large naval exercise with the Baltic Fleet, I want to remind what someone wrote –
-strengthen the surveillance of the embassy in Åland with S400, anti-ship missiles, and a motorized rifle regiment.
-land on the islands off Estonia and claim that the population has risen up.
I would not take this lightly at all if I were the West, so there should be a serious counter-exercise.
16:07 – Johan No.1
It will actually be interesting to see the truth when it eventually comes out.
One point though that I want to make here –
-F-16 will arrive in August according to the latest information.
Here is the quote from May 28, 2024
Quote Omni 2024-05-27:
“Sweden has been asked to pause plans to send Gripen planes to Ukraine, says Defense Minister Pål Jonson (M) to TT.
The reason is that Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Norway have promised to send F-16 planes and therefore Gripen must wait.
– We have been urged by the other countries leading the coalition to hold off on the Gripen system, Jonson tells the news agency.
The Defense Minister does not rule out that it may become relevant to send Gripen planes to Ukraine in the future.
– But right now the focus is on the Ukrainian side implementing the F-16 program.”
I read that Gripen is not allowed to come AT THE SAME TIME as F-16 and since they are coming this summer, Gripen could come this summer too, right.
You still speculate that Gripen could NOT come – that is contradicted by our defense minister, right.
16:55 – Johan No.1
I’m piecing together a bit –
May 2023 Ukrainian pilots were supposed to practice on Gripen (orientation training is what is stated).
https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/ukrainska-piloter-ska-ova-pa-jas-gripen
September 21, 2023 they have “trained on JAS in Sweden”
https://omni.se/forsvarsministern-bekraftar-ukrainska-piloter-har-utbildats-pa-jas-i-sverige/a/BWX1Me
May 28, 2024 Sweden announces they have been asked to pause plans to send Gripen.
Yes, we can guess but I would think it would be very un-Swedish not to have used the time between September 21, 2023 – May 28, 2024 to train the Ukrainian pilots but maybe they haven’t done that at all?
Experts say 6 months of training according to DN
https://www.dn.se/sverige/sa-snabbt-kan-ukraina-satta-in-gripen-mot-ryssland/
Then after May 28 and the pause, Zelensky made a statement on May 31 that he wanted training and Gripen in a year. Whether that statement was political, no one knows.
Now maybe SAAB is a bit biased but they write this. They also write that Gripen could be moved quickly if a political decision was made and that was winter 2024.
“On average it takes between 4-6 months to train a pilot to use the Gripen JAS39 fighter in the techniques for a limited mission set such as air-to-air and beyond-visual-range,” he told Defense News at the airshow.
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2024/02/22/saab-waits-out-political-drama-over-sending-gripen-fighters-to-ukraine/
Then I think the discussion is dishonest, yes it takes 78 months or 6.5 years to be fully trained but the type conversion training on Gripen is 6 months.
Ukraine sends its best pilots who can speak English so they have already gone through flight training AND conducted air combat in real situations probably hundreds of times.
Combat pilot training
The Armed Forces pilot training at the Swedish Defence University and Military Academy Karlberg.
Basic flight training at the Flight School in Linköping.
After the officer exam, your training continues as an employee with basic tactical training (GTU).
Then you carry out type conversion training on JAS 39 Gripen at Skaraborg Air Wing (F 7) in Såtenäs which is 6 months.
17:13 – Johan No.1
Yes, 78 weeks when I checked but then you are newly enlisted and then you pop out assigned to a wing, right?
If you have gone through all the training, the training on Gripen is 6 months.
The UA pilots have years of real missions under their belt and a ton of experience, so 6 months – 1 year should reasonably be enough, right?
17:18 – MatsExtrude
It was actually you who first planted the blasphemy against Satan (10:10), so that became the first strong expression that popped into my head.
I’m easily influenced. If you had written “Darn parsnip” I probably would have written that instead.. You are my idol!
Kind of like when I spent a summer playing with a couple of other kids from Stockholm and my parents thought I should stop speaking Stockholm dialect.
17:21 – MatsExtrude
I also think it should be enough. Handling the plane + a more NATO-adapted tactic shouldn’t take that damn long.
It was just that I thought 2 years should be enough for someone who has never flown, but that was probably optimistic.
17:30 – Johan No.1
I didn’t think it was a good system when I googled it.
It is controlled by optical cable(?) and has an effective range of 10-25 km. If the cable touches a tree, telephone pole, or house, the missile goes off course.
Time to hit is very long, so there is plenty of time after firing for the target to drive into cover if they see the light flare at launch; it’s enough to stand behind some brush and the missile probably won’t manage it.
In times of drones, this system is a big target with a high risk of a glowing violently burning mushroom cloud.
NLAW, which is fire and forget, is much more suitable; you can stay hidden, which this Ptgb cannot handle, and then immediately after firing make a run for it.
We had Pvrbv551 with TOW and they were quite vulnerable, and we felt that the RBS 56 bill groups had a higher survival chance when operating on the ground.
18:15 – Johan No.1
I tore Bulsae-4 to shreds above, but now I just thought of something –
Russia has for the first time in the war received armored vehicles.
Now the big question is whether they are driven by North Koreans or Russians?
But…
We have now passed an escalation point where China will be able to start sending armored protection in various forms since the West’s reactions are absent. Maybe not tanks yet before a North Korean one is spotted and there are no reactions.
Until now, China has only sent golf carts, some armored jeeps, and ammunition.
18:27 – Johan No.1
There are those who would argue that if you constantly show how clear you are about not escalating, the other side escalates instead.
18:36 – MatsExtrude
There is a risk you are right; on the other hand, North Korea is already heavily sanctioned and doesn’t have much to lose. China may not dare risk getting caught up in that.
Recently, they sent a large amount of Covid vaccine to North Korea, but that doesn’t seem to have changed their minds.
21:33 – Johan No.1
🤣🤣
10:31 – Johan No.1
The Meklejonen
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1818029742173618244
New Zealand’s women’s rugby team is in a league of their own, down on their knees but up again carrying some from the opposing team 😲 In the background it probably looks like any traffic accident.
https://x.com/legit_scumbag/status/1817789173127852116?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
We have to wait until Thursday before the monthly closing but it looks like there could be record profits this month as well for Russian Death Inc.
So far, and the month is not over…, RU has lost +1450 artillery pieces of mixed types (we guess). They had 900 M46s in stock and that sounded like a lot but they don’t even last a month.
I think artillery is having a pretty hard time, RU is far beyond the point where they can no longer manage fire and movement so their battery positions become fixed. Then Ukraine has artillery radar and counterbattery fire well established and their drones probably reach the Russians’ now short-range artillery.
It is sensational that Ukraine has managed to break the back of the Russian artillery, it is basically the lifeblood of their otherwise worthless warfare.
We have also reached the point where the West is the aggressor in Ukraine wanting to prolong the war and soon the message will be that it is Ukraine that does not want peace. It is a very purposeful message hammered out from the pro-Russian side and it attracts both the left and right wings.
Maduro is rigging the election, deploying the military and accusing the imperialists in the US and the West. This is how it is everywhere right now. In Africa, dictators knee-deep in blood point fingers at the colonizers in the EU while welcoming Russia and China.
Sometimes I think about going into a calm bubble like this
https://x.com/Rainmaker1973/status/1816923493822529645
And stop caring about the ever-increasing madness where dictators are praised or tolerated just because they are to the left of center and once won an election by promising to distribute all the country’s wealth to everyone. Or are tough on crime and then get a feeling and discover they can be tough on everyone which is also development A1.
For those who can bear it, you can read about the world’s once most successful countries Venezuela and Argentina. Venezuela had the world’s fourth highest GDP per capita or something like that. For me, the biggest mistake with communism or Marxism is to believe that those entrusted with managing a country’s total pot of money will be honest, trustworthy, and behave.
Unfortunately, it is quite easy to win elections by promising more money to everyone when times are good and then increase the promises every election to keep winning while slowly driving the country into the ground slowly enough so it is not obvious.
Now this is getting OT again but a person I have liked for a long time is Thomas Sowell, he cuts through all smoke screens with razor-sharp one-liners. Had he become an ideology as popular as other -isms, the world would be a better place. Instead of the murderer Che Guevara, we would have had Thomas Sowell on the shirts.
https://x.com/Mastering_life_/status/1817542784640860421
Ukraine is interesting because it seems they were in the shadows when the Tuaregs eliminated Wagner and they are also in Sudan.
With a bit of luck, they will take the opposite position against all Wagner units in Africa and do what the rest of the West does not dare to do – protect the continent against colonization.
Also read in the thread yesterday that Ukraine has opened many embassies and with some luck they will use their work experience to make Africa a better place to live in exchange for good pay – a win-win simply.
There is now a discussion that Ukraine is understaffed and has poor equipment.
It is funny because that discussion is never had about Russia, they are always considered to have endless equipment in warehouses, have been at war for a whole war, and have an inexhaustible personnel reserve.
Now Ukraine has “soldier panic” according to TV4
https://x.com/nyheterna/status/1817813652667298201?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Even now the Future Threat is dangled that they will jump on the EU in a few years which is completely unreasonable. The Germans completely lost it and claimed that Russia can produce 1000-1500 tanks per year.
(here one starts to wonder how accurate the intelligence services were before when we did not have access to social media and all the insiders so one got a somewhat fair picture).
If we take Ukraine’s amphibious capacity, they have received hundreds of river boats and combat boats of various sizes.
-Just under 15,000 pieces of body armor have been delivered in all its forms.
-3rd Azov stated they get 900 applications per week.
-Zelensky stated that they found a couple hundred thousand in the armed forces who could be moved to fighting units (fully trained) and that they have mobilized a couple hundred thousand.
-They have an armed force of 1,250,000 and so on.
The problem they have is that as soon as they find an opening to cause real damage, the US calls and stops them so the war does not escalate.
Then different capabilities are important, that whack-a-mole we always talk about and it cannot be denied that new advanced aircraft is an important capability that is kept away.
Yesterday there was an exciting discussion about Gripen and that it needed a couple of years of training to be able to function adequately and that is why Gripen could not come this summer (as the government planned to announce). I am exaggerating this a bit I admit but many agreed that Gripen could not come this summer due to many different factors.
Since we all engage in honest discussion here – up to you who drove that discussion because when the F-16 comes on real missions in 2024 you have been fantasizing freely and can no longer call yourselves aviation experts on your CVs, those are the rules 😀
Then I have to remind the “we shall keep entered agreements and contract gang” that at least Russia, the US, and the UK have broken the Budapest Memorandum so if we send something in conflict with something we are lesser sinners than these three. I think that applies to the whole EU – right now the UK has sent a damn letter to France about whether they can use Storm Shadow against Russian territory.
But the UK had no problem at all breaking the Budapest Memorandum…
Real rule fanatics especially when it comes to sending aid to Ukraine but had no problem breaking the Budapest Memorandum and see nothing strange about it.
By the way, Ukraine could never operate Western combat vehicles, they would never be able to handle a vehicle fleet with many vehicles, all vehicles would stand still with technical faults because they could not repair them and they would never be able to handle the ammunition in all different calibers. Then Ukraine does what they have always done – they solve the task with the conditions they have and they do it damn well.
It is likely that the F-16 will receive all its service from bases in the EU but then, before a real mission, make a stopover at a base in Ukraine to then take off directly and carry out its combat task.
Quite a lot of the combat tasks will probably be firing various missiles at targets identified by AWACS, reasonably, and then dropping decoys, diving, and returning to the home base, maybe via a stopover at a UA airbase?
At all major events, the Russians retreat into their den for a while to process the information. When they ran hit-and-runs with the Patriot (which we guessed correctly early on), the FAB bombers disappeared for a long time.
10-20 F-16s with the right ammunition and used correctly will probably pacify the FAB bomb droppers hopefully permanently, provided the F-16s do not start taking too heavy losses so that RU sees value in fighting them.
Do you know what my conspiracy hat thinks – that there is a bigger plan here. There are rumors about stock market crashes among economic conspirators and then I saw something about increasing bankruptcies in today’s economic blog.
What would happen if it exploded in MENA and Iran decided to sink that ship in the Strait of Hormuz so that all oil transports drop to zero?
Would it benefit Russia whose economy is in free fall if there was a financial crisis/recession in the West – probably, they would not be hit the worst.
China probably does not want that, BUT China has had its fingers involved in October 7 according to I..erna, so they are not completely on the sidelines.
Since the West has already fired the economic weapon against Russia and threatens China with sanctions, it is not entirely unlikely that the opposing side tries to trigger a financial crisis/stock market crash here.
But I know nothing about economics and will stay away 😀
Two TU22M damaged in the attack on Olenya airfield.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kykvebhf3k2b
A HUGE JDAM blast from UA on a Russian grouping.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kykvfrgk3k2n
Lots of internet cables cut in France in addition to sabotage against the railway causing power outages – the Russians are really long-sighted about Macron going hard in January. My thought that this is why the West is cautious is not entirely unreasonable. Putin threatens to throw the countries into chaos and topple governments, and murder?
Macron just managed to save politics but the wave of sabotage is absolutely enormous right now.
https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1818173489464963209?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w