12:42 – Johan No.1
In Nigeria, all kidnapped people who have not been paid for are murdered without exception. Most companies pay if their employees are kidnapped and yes, I basically agree with you but if you are targeted that policy is not much comfort at all.
Since we have too many countries and too many companies globally, it will always be like this and unfortunately the curve will be rising.
Something new is that Russia and Iran have started behaving like Nigerian kidnappers.
13:52 – MatsExtrude
Yes, it feels bleak now.
I thought the promise to support Ukraine as long as needed meant until they defeated the Russians, not that it meant until Ukraine was forced to give up.
Now we shouldn’t give up yet, but if you don’t do more than you do to help, the peace advocates will partly be right. Then you could have given up already in autumn 2022 and let Russia have its territories. That would have saved lives (at least temporarily).
Now Ukraine trusted everyone who assured their support and gladly came to visit Kyiv, or received him and took the opportunity to be in the spotlight.
If they are forced to give up because we haven’t given enough I think all these should be ashamed.
But as I said, I’m not giving up and hope the promises will be fulfilled and that Ukraine will be able to throw out the Russians.
The Russians may have taken land but they have hardly become stronger.
13:59 – Johan No.1
There seems to have been a lively discussion in Finland about Åland if you google around but Åland’s neutrality must be respected which means that after the Baltics it is an easy target – it is the only area in NATO that is not fortified.
If Russia strengthens security at its consulate heavily, how do we act then?
Then of course the question is, will NATO be prepared to retake terrain occupied by Russia when Russia then threatens with nuclear war and escalation?
Yes, I have long hoped that the West will come to its senses and also hope there will be a big war in the Baltic Sea if little green men appear on Åland. I have long hoped the West would be a bit tougher in the Ukraine war but I have hoped in vain.
14:00 – Johan No.1
I do believe in a UA offensive in 2024 but sometimes it’s appropriate to discuss how things look at the fronts.
16:49 – MatsExtrude
Yes, but the way it looks is probably largely due to the equipment.
18:37 – Johan No.1
Hope is the last thing to abandon you, they say, but we are in early August 2024 and it is RU who has the initiative and there are discussions about peace talks and Zelensky has already stated that they may not be able to take back all lost territory.
When we have realistic days, it is reported how things look at the fronts and what has been said and done in action, so it is not really pessimistic but the situation right now.
As I said, I expect an offensive this year because Ukraine should have both the equipment, personnel, and ammunition for it.
Sometimes I seriously wonder if we in the thread are the only ones worried that Ukraine might be forced to cede land to Russia – that the West does not see it as a problem. But we are not there yet (really).
08:38 – Johan No.1
International legion has a couple of openings for F-16 pilots and ground personnel
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1819443484967030839?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
12:35 – Johan No.1
We are back with refinery bombings, Omsk took a hit yesterday and is the largest refinery in Russia.
https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1819049004753166724?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
We now have a total of 45 attacks on refineries in Russia, which can be considered a fairly extensive strategic bombing campaign. Then UA has gone hard after fuel depots that started well at the turn of the year and in recent months power substations for electricity supply. Most recently, we learned that Ukraine has sent more long-range drones than RU has sent Shaheds during July 2024. As said, Russia has already lost the strategic bombing war since early 2024.
UA shoots down almost everything RU shoots at Ukraine.
https://x.com/UkrReview/status/1819286407896092979?t=rAFUM9Itp0viDR5oP4oWvQ&s=19
Interesting reflection by Thomas Sowell in these times when truth is always subjective.
https://x.com/thomassowell/status/1819139077477712250?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Yesterday I was watching the expansion after Avdiivka fell and it is a considerable area that is mainly moving in all directions right now.
Then the thread’s own party animal Landsorten (party on a lighthouse) posted a link that there are heavy fights in Velyka Novosilka north of Urozaine (if I have the wrong location, apologies).
https://x.com/WarMonitor3/status/1818992776278630509?t=oereEmUOKeg2xHQUGHk0Vg&s=19
The situation –
-Vuhledar is soon threatened from the East.
-Offensive operations are ongoing along the southern front now, RU has increased the tempo.
-At Nevelske there is a beginning extent that risks becoming a front thinning.
-At Yasnobrodivka it soon looks a bit precarious.
-At New York the extent is almost complete.
-The Russians are attacking towards Siversk from the south.
-And up at the northern front the Russians have soon driven a wedge down to the Oskil river.
-I have long been worried about Klischiivka but it seems to hold.
-The penetrations at the northern front are not defeated.
This is how it looks. Gregg was negative yesterday that there is chaos in the administration but the soldiers fight like gods as usual.
Zelensky is not positive either as the blogger posted yesterday, they are not allowed to take out the FAB bomb droppers and they are not getting the equipment, the offensive reserve has not received its materiel. This was a bit unexpected because the whole West promised, and started delivering materiel, early 2024 and now it is August.
The materiel is in storage in Europe but Zelensky has previously confirmed that half of the promised equipment has not been delivered 😲
We have followed F-16 intensively and seen how May was the last July and six of them. Is it the same with everything perhaps?
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3891023-zelensky-names-three-main-reasons-for-advance-of-russian-forces.html
Zelensky is tired of the constant delays (I think this was from MXT who apparently can sit at the computer because he doesn’t have sunscreen factor 50 everywhere, I myself have to stand and use a stick to press the keys).
https://x.com/United24media/status/1818957733233594674?t=014qoh-07qXHNFm3-eOCFg&s=19
A question I’m pondering is that almost a year after Zalizhny and all the brigade commanders were fired, there is total chaos, yes Gregg says so but we all see how it goes at the fronts. I also can’t make sense of this just like Gregg and now I don’t know if his explanation is correct but if it is, then it works significantly worse than when Zalizhny was at the helm.
What I have done is sum up materiel, new personnel, offensive reserve and then compare with the Russians and it should be going considerably better than this. I can’t see it any other way than that Ukraine has offensive capacity for 2024, they must have it.
Zaluzhny wanted to mobilize early and Zelensky slowed that down, we know that, if I may speculate wildly, Zaluzhny wanted to mobilize to be able to carry out offensives?
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/01/europe/zaluzhnyi-ukraine-russia-war-analysis-intl/index.html
Here you have Constantine who I believe is a credible account, apologies if I’m falling for Russian psyops. He is harsh in his criticism of Sirsky.
https://x.com/teoyaomiquu/status/1819128819795529948?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
We have often discussed that Ukraine is a difficult mosaic to manage and the longer the war goes on the harder it will become. I usually compare it to any group project in school?
If we look at the actual situation, Ukraine is retreating along almost the entire front. They have given up the bridgehead at the Dnieper, they are losing ground at the southern front, they are retreating along the entire eastern front and up in northern Luhansk there is a wedge heading towards Oskil that will encircle an area and around Kupiansk making it difficult to defend.
We are now all clinging to one hope – that Russia will run out of gas soon, in a few weeks. What if they don’t?
They have 590,000 in Ukraine now and they were going to build on that further until the turn of the year regardless of losses according to the latest update. I don’t remember to what. Losses are a bit under 40,000 per month and up at the northern front they know that Ukraine will not attack because the USA guarantees that.
What Gregg is really saying is that yes, we have received lots of materiel and mobilized new personnel but it has not reached the units as it should. That probably means that maneuver brigades that should be well equipped and personnel strong are not.
How the hell that is even possible when they have been on defense since autumn 2023 I really don’t understand. Deliberate sabotage, incompetence by the new combat leadership and new brigade commanders or war fatigue?
Zaluzhny managed to distribute the materiel that was available and the personnel he had for a spring offensive 2023 we know that and the UA units that fought showed high capability and motivation. They had managed to equip and train two army corps in the middle of an ongoing war.
What have they been doing since autumn 2023 and what has the West been doing since autumn 2023?
But I believe that Ukraine has offensive capacity, the marine corps at Krunky have been superhuman and at Bakhmut the 3rd assault brigade fought like trench-clearing demigods.
Has all this capability suddenly gone to zero?
The West is playing a VERY high-stakes game here and accepts an ENORMOUS risk – I wonder if the West may have already quietly accepted that Ukraine might have to give up land in exchange for the war not escalating because that is actually what we are heading towards if Russia does not lose the gas or if Ukraine does not go on the offensive.
All experts, politicians, military and intelligence services in the West can look at Deepstatemap and read Zelensky’s statements which are starting to become pleas – do you hear anything from representatives in the West right now or see anything in action?
Now I’m just extrapolating on Gregg but if it is as messy as he describes, the rot has set in and please explain to me how it will get better then.
If it continues like this until sometime in October, UA’s starting position for peace negotiations is terrible.
Yes, I am seriously worried that the West will feel that a ceasefire and further negotiations are the way forward and then Putin will have gotten what he needs. You almost have to look hard to find a bigger fake win and it came just in time when he is starting to feel seriously pressured.
Now I’m not allowed to comment on the economy but these are some early signs of a downturn, right?
https://x.com/piqsuite/status/1818919967955296311?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Do you think the West’s willingness to support Ukraine will increase with a recession if it happens?
If MENA lights up and Iran sinks a ship in the Strait of Hormuz causing the markets to go bananas?
I stand by the view that the longer this war goes on, the greater the risk – the US strategy of not escalating, which prolongs the war, defeats its own purpose and leads to global escalation.
The little joker in the game is that Ukraine – China have had discussions and what has come from that about territorial integrity but we’ll see, it’s hard to pin down hope for humanity on China…
Yes, UA soldiers are light years better. I remember when they started trying to move with the vehicles they were a problem. They didn’t move tactically at all and were just a big target. Towards the end of training it was a bit more like stealthy big cats and I was particularly fond of delay fighting which you had to plan deeply.
Russian vehicles still struggle to navigate the terrain and are not much of a threat but fragmentation protection to deliver fire is always an advantage so if they get a large amount of fragmentation protection it’s better than electric scooters.
Stealing this from Erik14 that Zelensky, who is well informed just like the thread believes RU will jump on the Baltics. Åland is, as said, a big target, are they in NATO by the way?
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3kynrepi2qf2y
And then according to Omni and MXT, the Russian economy will totally collapse if the war ends (and the sanctions remain, I guess?). Now Sullivan and the US have a new dilemma, endless war or dollars in suitcases to Russia, it’s just a choice if they want to stick to their non-escalation strategy in the case of Russia. Yes, I’m trying to show how completely unreasonable it is that Putin says everything will escalate and Sullivan et al want to avoid escalation at all costs. Then I think the real purpose is hidden but that’s my personal opinion.
Here you have the entire purge in MoD
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kyq34ahxv22k
Happy birthday
https://x.com/InUKRofficial/status/1818741422474117181
I know it’s easy to think we know nothing and that the US must think right and that we can’t demand more from the EU. The West does what we can but if we ignore that the soldier above is celebrating his birthday away from his wife and children who are being destroyed by stress and he himself will come back with incurable PTSD then it’s also a lack of self-preservation among our elected officials.
If they don’t take hold of this soon then I will be the one celebrating my birthday in some water-filled defense system in the Baltics because our politicians slept through the startup of our time’s global conflict.
Right now we live on hope – that the US will soon change course, that Russia will run out of gas, that the peace negotiations will be to Ukraine’s advantage, that the EU will start… etc.
That is not being responsible.
The whole EU is now planning for national defense to meet the Russian threat instead of extinguishing the Russian threat in Ukraine.
Darth Putin is absolutely right, just step on the gas.
https://x.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1818970602914316698
Chinese PV missile to H..as, then you can assume that Houti, H..ah and Iran also have Chinese weapons, including drones. We sincerely hope that I..el has learned from the Ukraine war.
https://x.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1819096205386985900
Interesting video on BMP-1, 100mm smoothbore low-pressure cannon and PV rocket.
https://x.com/TOGAjano21/status/1818851035026182376
Two snipers take out 22 Russian soldiers. You have Ukrainian soldiers today who in absolute numbers match the great Russian killers in history.
https://x.com/osint_69/status/1818753054944247912?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Soon MENA will also take all the focus from Ukraine again, now we’re probably waiting for retaliation from Iran and then I..el has promised to retaliate the retaliation while Iran threatens everyone who lets I..el’s retaliation pass their airspace, but will allow Iran’s retaliation to pass their airspace otherwise it will be war.
Sounds like the whole region will light up soon with that logic.