2024-08-05

11:35 – Johan No.1

Early autumn will be the time to prove how Ukraine’s air defense (what has been delivered) works, because Russia has absolutely prepared for a heavy blow to the power supply – new production, low consumption, and they have brought TU95 to the bases they normally use for their missile raids.

If Ukraine can replicate its most successful defense and shoot down +90% while simultaneously carrying out violent retaliatory attacks on Russia’s sensitive infrastructure, it would send a very strong signal to Putin and his opposition.

If Ukraine has not received enough air defense so that the hits are many and then gets many orders from the USA not to strike where it hurts, it will send a signal to the citizens of Ukraine and +50% could probably today consider peace talks.

By now we know how Putin thinks, and since it is time for negotiations this autumn, he will unleash everything in terms of missiles over Ukraine to secure the best possible starting point for further discussions.
The plan is likely a ceasefire and then discussions between UA – RU with China also involved.

We already know that Russia has broken every agreement it has ever had with Ukraine as posted in the thread, so a new agreement is therefore completely meaningless, which actually makes peace negotiations meaningless, but there is a risk that the West has been talked down by Putin here.

Is a ceasefire meaningful?
The question I am pondering is what will happen to the China – Russia relationship as soon as there is a ceasefire or some agreement is reached, and if it then will be free for China to arm Russia for round two?
It is quite clear that Putin wants sanctions relief as PerraG55 says, because the influence operation with the released opposition seems to have as a priority to directly discuss easing the sanctions.

The Russian weapons manufacturing base was laughably small in 2023 and I don’t think it looks much better in 2024, but if the country can quietly start producing weapon systems again and China supplies what is missing, they will of course be able to resource a new war.

They have up to 700,000 Ukrainian children (the Russians boast about that number themselves) where the older ones are already being trained, so yes, you guessed right – Putin plans to attack Ukraine again with Ukrainian (child) soldiers.

Then Russia will probably set up entire units of contracted soldiers from Africa and then continue recruiting from minority areas in Russia so that life becomes normal for Muscovite Russians while Putin wages a war with old-fashioned colonial regiments.

But we don’t need to get there, I am of the opinion that the strategic bombing war is already lost for Russia and now UA is demonstrably going after FAB bombers.
Step two would be to conduct a more dynamic and aggressive defensive battle and then try to hit a Russian low point for own offensive operations.
But all that requires supplying resources in sufficient quantity, so we’ll have to wait and see if the West has done that.

Ukraine’s own manufacturing capacity is increasing sharply and now they have the air-launched Neptune and according to current rules there are probably no restrictions on them. But that doesn’t prevent new restrictions from being introduced, of course.

When you hear how it sounds in the thread, you can guess how it sounds in Ukraine and how it will sound if this war ends in an unfavorable way for Ukraine. The West is playing a very high-stakes game here as said, but now Kier Starmer is also getting busy after clarifying that Storm Shadow can be used against targets in Russia.

France was the first after Macron had the audacity to oppose Russia early 2024.

In several countries in Europe there have now been spectacular acts of violence and then the right-wing is immediately out demonstrating. Spain had two beheadings in one day, in the UK three small children were stabbed to death. In Sweden, it is announced that the right-wing will go out and demonstrate at the end of August against Islam. After the media’s war headlines, comparisons immediately follow on how the media reported on the demonstrations after George Floyd and everything is underway. I see a downward spiral in this, somewhat like a perfect storm.

And I see that the countries leading against Putin get a lot of demonstrations on their necks after a while. Kier Starmer immediately received Zelensky, he had meetings with all EU leaders and made harsh statements against Putin and now Islamists/left – right are in full war against each other and the cabinet is in crisis meeting.
Exactly what happened with Macron when he did the same.
Then Russian psyops are running at full speed with Macron and Kier Starmer to shape public opinion against them.

By the way, there are demonstrations in Germany now for peace in Ukraine – that is, negotiations, the Germans are suddenly starting to engage in the Ukraine war.

This is not easy to navigate for peace-damaged politicians in the EU but if Ukraine has managed 2.5 years in an existential war without faltering, then the least one can expect from the West is that they do not let themselves be talked down by Putin, right?

The explanatory models will then be infinitely many as to why this was inevitable, but we know that this is not the case; it is active decisions to slow down Ukraine that have led us here – today in 2024 we basically have everything clear as Ukraine has chosen to reveal much of what has been said.

NATO has a chance to eliminate the threat Russia poses without sacrificing a single soldier, all they needed was to send materiel.
Now it could instead become an arms race, cold war, and future wars from this – if anyone suggests this is a good solution, they are wrong unless they like Putin, of course.

Now I have probably been nagging for a few weeks about recession/stock market crash/recession and the connection is that I believe the West will be less inclined to support Ukraine if there is financial turmoil. I read somewhere that a modest Japanese interest rate hike triggered a serious sell-off panic and then it has probably reached the level where the smallest trigger factor might be enough?

12:59 – MatsExtrude

Thanks for today’s yellow wall!

13:21 – Johan No.1

Thanks yourself 😀👍