12:46 – MatsExtrude
👍 It certainly looks like you’re getting your offensive, a bit early to be completely sure. It didn’t come as I thought, when the Russians had hit a low point. Now maybe that low point is forced instead.
When the war is over, I hope we find out what the US said and didn’t say to Ukraine and how the game behind the scenes looked. Have they chosen to go against the US or is it perhaps something they actually planned together? If they have gone against the US, it proves once again that they have balls of Ukranium.
Exciting to see how it goes in Kursk and how it might affect the rest of the war.
Have a nice summer break!!
13:08 – Johan No.1
Ok, I must admit I have actually wondered if the US and Ukraine have just spun everyone in the stands. RU has known about this offensive for a while – they saw the buildup of forces just like us.
But maybe the US could succeed in blowing Putin away?
Hasn’t Biden looked very well-dressed lately?
13:19 – MatsExtrude
😄 Regardless, it’s good that it happened, but it would feel better if the US is actually on board. Partly so that there won’t be any sourness afterward, and partly because then they show some backbone (and then maybe that 100 km limit will soon disappear as well). Then there is only one red line left: sending in troops.
12:03 – Johan No.1
In the area of Ukraine’s violent and deadly invasion of Russia, the 98th AD, SOF Senezh, Russian Airforce MRD (newly established), and a territorial regiment are supposed to be present. The funny thing here is that further west there is the even more poorly defended Bryansk with almost no Russians at all.
Then east of Belgorod it is likely a bit thinner between the Russians as well since they have prioritized their offensive against Kharkiv. Twitter rumors claim that Ukraine also has combat groups in these areas that are revving their engines and doing squats at the forest edges.
Pretty sure this is what the Russian Defense Minister called Lloyd Austin about, who then called Zelensky. Either the US has changed its mind or Ukraine has gone full Mexican.
I guess Ukraine has gone full Mexican for the simple reason that if they continue doing what the US wants, this will crash; we have all seen the incoming train wreck with negotiations from a bad negotiating position and a hesitant West. Everything on red is very Ukrainian.
Ukraine probably reached around Sadzhe on the first day, which is 10 km deep (with the usual Johan No.1 exaggeration). One is amazed at Putin’s arrogance to still leave his northern border undefended, completely incomprehensible that the little bunker rabbit dares to be so bold.
There are so many reports that it is mechanized units, possibly plural, that it cannot be dismissed – at least battalion strength, possibly several penetration points so several battalion strengths.
It is also the case that “freedom Russia” and other volunteer units DO NOT have Bradleys – which are said to be rampaging in Kursk, so maneuver brigades which seem to have been Twitter-confirmed to be the 22nd mech (withdrawn from Bakhmut) and an experienced territorial brigade.
Then they are clearing mines – why do you think?
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3kz344mqikk2m
UA has the LV screen with them, we know that for sure after initial RU air losses and they shot out the Russian task force on the highway so they probably also have the capability for accurate indirect fire AND deep reconnaissance – a bit of good old combined arms warfare.
Now RU will be forced to do a Krunky and all task forces will have to get on and band on the highway and be knocked out – during this offensive operation RU will take the greatest losses.
Does this sound like the guys in freedom Russia doing a raid or does it sound like a somewhat more ambitious attempt – we shall see.
And then there are reports that RU is pulling units from northern Luhansk and the Siversk area to reinforce the northern front – this means they have no reserves up at the northern front which is huge. From Siversk it is possibly VDV that is being moved.
Much of the above I have stolen from legends in yesterday’s thread – all credit to them.
In January we started discussing that Ukraine would have an offensive strike for 2024 and as you know I have staked my (tarnished) reputation on us seeing an offensive in 2024 and in the form of mech combat.
We have had two things to keep an eye on for those of you who have followed the thread and neglected your work just like me,
-mech across the border at the northern front
-amphibious operations at the Dnieper or along the coast towards Crimea.
Now unfortunately I have arrived in civilization after fighting my way safely through lawlessness to the airport, or an armed escort did it and I sat looking important in sunglasses in the car behind – so unfortunately I don’t have time to wait until it is clear what is happening 😭
We have assumed that the F-16 has been the critical line for offensive operations and that the FAB bombers must be removed to enable movements for the mech.
With what has come out I believe we have already seen mech combat. There is some rumor that everything will be trenches and infantry that must move stealthily because of the drone weapon but that is obviously not the case – the thread declares that the thread was right again ✊
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1820806098514776527?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And according to the MXT link yesterday it was a weakened mech battalion that attacked but I am starting to suspect they are attacking on several fronts as said, we shall see.
“Russian Defense Ministry says that this morning, Ukrainian forces launched an incursion into Kursk Oblast of Russia with approx. 300 troops, supported by 11 tanks and more than 20 armored vehicles.”
We have sat for months watching how the US sabotaged just because they can, now it is probably official that UA did not get to knock out the air force and we have discussed it endlessly – good that it is confirmed so everyone understands that the Biden administration does not care about FAB-killed children the least, they would rather have peace than living children.
The US has also stopped Ukraine from entering Russia with ground forces is my strong opinion even if we may have to wait for formal confirmation of that – and that is exactly why this is a huge event.
Why should we then keep an eye on the first two points above?
Because these two operations exceed local terrain recovery or tactical offensive, it would show a completely new level of ambition.
It would show an ambition to carry out offensives in some form in 2024.
Then I must remind about the thread’s discussion about KPR, BPR and so on – republics that declare their freedom and then Putin has to negotiate to get Belgorod back and free passage for his trapped army corps down in Crimea instead of which conquered areas he will be allowed to keep.
I suppose from my vacation I will have to decide the date when this year’s offensive started and upon return issue a royal decree (possibly through Dengamle because if you are royal you should have a herald in funny clothes?) and as usual everyone who suggests other dates is disinformation.
May 4, 2023 came about in a cloud of whisky at 01:00 at night and was entirely based on Defmon posting something about Indians running over some cavalry regiment but the world’s historians have accepted that date so everything ended well despite misunderstandings.
However, I can inform the thread that if you hear anything about amphibious operations in the near future, Ukraine has very big plans for 2024 – then it’s really on, and then the window for offensive operations opened August 6, 2024 – but we have not seen that yet.
Then I must remind the pessimists who as usual started feeling the wind in their sails and declared that Ukraine’s downfall was inevitable because against Russia no one has a chance. Now apparently Ukraine did not think so because they are invading Russia with mechanized units and it is going well 🤣
I am not saying that Avdiivka is a war trick because it is not but in Russia they operate in silos so the northern front and northern Luhansk have to worry about the northern front right now and then the eastern front and southern front are pushing as best they can.
The Eastern Front has carried out quite a lot of high knees and screaming across the fields in recent months, and many brigades have been wiped out. At Avdiivka, they have also expanded significantly throughout the summer, which has given them exposed positions at present.
At the Dnieper, the barbarians are probably in poor condition, and you surely haven’t missed that two UA territorial brigades have become marine brigades?
I believe Ukraine has around +300 suitable vessels of various sizes, ranging from SB90 to American river boats like those from Vietnam, over to RIB boats and similar with weapon stations on them.
Then they probably have a bunch of additional floating craft on top of that; they were working with jet skis for a while.
When this locust swarm starts from the Dnieper over to Crimea and all the staff locations, barracks, ammunition depots, and supply bases down towards the coast are subjected to marine raids, it will get lively.
Have you considered that earlier when Ukraine carried out raids into Russia, the Russian reaction was measured, arrogant, and dismissive?
Now they are directly out saying that Ukraine is attacking with large mechanized units – are they worried?
Are they trying to get the world to condemn Ukraine for invading Russia when they want peace?
You remember my painted picture of Lavrov sitting and crying loudly at the UN, begging at least to keep Moscow.
Ukraine has also far exceeded previous penetration depths, and it’s not over yet if one is to believe a well-informed Twitter.
We have seen both mechanized combat and offensive operations, so some need to recalibrate themselves again as so often happens through this war. A mechanized battalion-sized unit has full advance 10 km into Russia.
Dengamle also sends regards that his T64 drove into a ditch quite immediately and got an unfixable track twist because apparently Ukrainian drivers don’t understand “right, no left, damn it” in Swedish. So Dengamle’s invasion of Russia ended minus 300 meters since the ditch was a good way inside the Ukrainian side – but if he wants to talk about “the invasion of Russia” when he’s back, thumbs up applies and you don’t need to mention the train crash.
Since I clock out today, this is actually a few days early, so I’ll stick my neck out a bit and claim that I think maybe the window for the operations that will probably paint the big decisive strokes of 2024 has now opened. Historians will agree that this year’s offensive started in the first half of August 2024 (exact date will be confirmed when I have conducted a world-leading analysis of all available data, super professional), anyone suggesting other dates is a Russian double agent.
Summer break ✊