11:21 – MatsExtrude
First a strong contribution to the night shift and then a massively positive yellow wall, Saturday is saved!👍👍👍
11:36 – Johan No.1
Yes, it is ongoing throughout the entire EU now.
I was thinking about the subversive activities that are directly aimed at decision-makers and officials to complicate or prevent decision-making on issues Russia does not want decisions on – for example, supporting UA in the war.
A politician or official also has a private life and a family situation in some way that is vulnerable and secrets that might not look so good if they come out, or they like cash.
10:53 – Johan No.1
War legends
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1831709434663362646?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
As someone previously wrote, the window for this year’s offensives opened on August 6, 2024 (don’t listen to an older person trying to question that) and it seems like things are starting to get going generally now. The reconnaissance battles are beginning to transition into local counteroffensives that are gaining strength.
Everyone screamed about the poor condition of the units in Pokrovsk but no one asked where the elite units were – because they were not in Kursk or Pokrovsk.
I usually try to summarize the offensive reserve and that is probably what we are starting to see now in the troop movements of the last few days. All the units that have rested and been re-equipped with all the heavy vehicles delivered starting January 2024, which we reported on back then in the thread.
UA defends at a numerical disadvantage of 1:10 in some cases but at least 1:5 – the rest of the units have been refreshed.
I guess the condition of the RU units is very poor so we will see what comes of this – how big is the Potemkin facade really, I have a video of the 76th AAD below.
I have come to the point where I never want to see a war again. It may seem obvious but I have never reflected on it this way before. The West has a huge debt in that the situation is as it is today, which we have gone through countless times, the video below should be mandatory for our elected officials and experts in the West to watch and reflect on.
The best way is to do like Finland – if you want peace you must prepare for war and I hope the West really takes this seriously going forward. If there is one thing I will push for after this war besides Africa, it is exactly that.
https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1830433875320803415?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
At the risk of saying too much now, but for those of you who usually swim at Skärholmen swimming pool, you may have seen an elderly old man with a considerable beard (trying) to learn to swim. He has now reached the silver fish level and is a bit behind schedule so he has booked double courses. You can draw your own conclusions about where geographically the thread’s own green beret (the kind older people usually wear) will be deployed for his sharp mission that has geopolitical significance. Right now the schedule has slipped and Budanov is completely crazy but without swimming skills no mission.
Skärholmen swimming pool will at least be quite happy when he finishes the dolphin because every morning it is the same thing – he tries to drink a few beers in the sauna before swimming lessons with six-year-olds and there is always a fight with the lifeguards even though a couple have let themselves be bribed with some cans of elephant beer and funny (made-up) stories.
That half of our media has spread Putin’s message aimed at undermining Kamala Harris is absolutely astonishing, it makes you boil 😡
Putin has now realized that his positive comments about Trump are a drag on Trump so in the months before the election they are instead going out with the message that Putin supports Kamala Harris. Quite expected and I am surprised that Trump has not yet gone out saying he will send everything to Ukraine and help them win unlike Biden but apparently they are not that smart.
It’s a bit like when China realized that “made in China” was not a positive label on all their products so it became nothing or “designed in USA” instead.
SVT, Aftonbladet and others are directly reporting this so suddenly this gets spread by credible sources – Swedish state media has a quality stamp.
Now Russian debaters can copy Swedish state media and give the impression that this is Putin’s real opinion and thus influence the election – smart of SVT to help Trump, do you have no insight into your own illness at all is actually the question?
By the way, we have the whole discussion about Sirsky being a Russian mole, since he was one of the very few who knew about the Kursk operation, so we KNOW now that Sirsky is a Ukrainian patriot to the fingertips and the same with Zelensky. Apparently the security services did not know about the operation but it was mentioned somewhere that Budanov was involved, but Twitter rumors were rampant and Dengamle was definitely not involved…
If we are to comment on Pokrovsk, large brigades with heavy teeth have arrived at the front and the situation should stabilize quite quickly now, posted about the 93rd Mechanized yesterday and the 47th is probably also identifiable after the 15th NG (which is not large) arrived. My personal opinion is that Pokrovsk is a very good flytrap.
Kara-Dag (15th NG) which just arrived in Pokrovsk is part of the “offensive guard” or storm brigades and an elite unit with volunteers.
It is also important to understand that NG and Territorial today are elite units that are home guard and NG only in name – they have their own SOF, reconnaissance and drone units, are partly mechanized and have several years of work experience. For example, two Territorial units near the Dnepr have been upgraded to marine corps.
Two home guard units in the marine corps, it brings tears to the eyes.
https://militaryland.net/ukraine/marine-corps/
At Kursk, Ukraine has shown how to fight with combined arms units in combined arms warfare and crushed the Russians in the first weeks, they were completely overrun. Now there are at least 4 RU brigades in various stages of buildup in the area.
Those of you who have followed for a while understand the concept that Ukraine has created a new Davyidiv Bridge up in Kursk which will be a priority for RU to retake. Many RU brigades will be grilled in the upcoming months’ assault attempts when they have to move up and band on the highway to reach their UFA in an area where there were no units before.
I have world-leading and professional studied the Smaug drone, or Dracarys, and it is sensational. In the video below you see how the entire firing position burns fiercely after a few minutes so it is fast and deadly.
You may remember someone in the thread who used to talk about grilled BTG, this was magnitudes better than he visualized back in 2022.
https://x.com/albafella1/status/1831702907944685673?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
It seems to be able to fly towards a defense system and then for a few minutes drown it in thermite or white phosphorus and partly the material burns for a while but then all vegetation catches fire.
It is 27 degrees and dry in Ukraine right now 😀
If you deploy it just before a platoon’s attack to retake (conquer in Kursk) a Russian platoon’s defensive position (because UA attacks at a numerical disadvantage, as low as group against platoon) this is really a game-changer.
(the world’s best infantry – we with armored infantry would always attack 3:1 but UA runs the opposite in numerical disadvantage, how anyone can still talk down on them is a mystery to me).
You are lying with your Russian platoon of slightly drunk mash drinkers and trying to defend yourself with some RPGs and a rusty Nagan.
Suddenly over a few minutes everything around you burns and you sit in the reinforced position where the oxygen is sucked out after a few more minutes and you are all knocked out.
If some are eager to fight, it burns outside so they barely get out of the reinforced position and if they do, FPV drones buzz everywhere.
And then the armored infantry comes and hits the fortification system head-on when there is just a slight fire in the undergrowth after a while.
Timing is of course everything but DAMN what a weapon – you get total devastation within minutes and exactly where you want it within a meter when – welcome back napalm.
Name another weapon that delivers that and it’s only from one (1) drone 💥
The US never sent their thermobaric grenades so UA developed Smaug and these little beasts are absolutely a game changer when it comes to storming fortification systems.
Now they will operate unchallenged for a month or so and then RU will probably find some countermeasure but if they are used in large numbers right away they will make a difference, which they seem to be doing.
In Kursk they are now likely going on the defensive in the east and north and then maybe they can work their way west?
There are endless openings in Bryansk oblast and westwards the Russian defense is weaker around the Kursk bulge.
RU now seems to have brought up their reinforcements around Kursk and Zelensky himself stated 60,000 according to the LW blog yesterday.
Looking at the unit maps, these are better units that have probably functioned as offensive reserves down at the fronts and thus have been in somewhat decent shape.
RU has therefore sent up 60,000 from the tip to Kursk and presumably Putin will want the area retaken so forward on them.
RU brigades are rarely at full strength today, here you have the infamous marine brigade where a battalion is on its way to Kursk –
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1825604491741479262?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And here is a regiment from the 76th AAD, sick soldiers and contract personnel from Africa and Asia who have arrived in Kursk.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3l3kfzjhjpp2m
The Russian units are not in good shape – these are the task forces and the best they have as you can see in the two videos.
Now it’s up to the West to show what they think about this – UA will pull out several brigades and let the rest go on the defensive where they don’t advance and if Russia rains FAB and missiles on them it can get difficult.
If the West ensures that UA has LR missiles and further gets their F-16s they will be able to hold the area and this is where the concern is that the US is now punishing Ukraine by both stopping their own deliveries and then forcing the rest of Europe not to send – I don’t know, as has been written for a couple of days now but that’s what the Twitter rumors say.
Germany has a fairly ambitious list of deliveries we found out yesterday – very good.
Here you have Scholz in his youth by the way.
https://x.com/rail_splitter1/status/1832013595926008194?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The invasion of Russia was a good decision on all levels and if you oppose it you don’t want the best for Ukraine.
Now the next step must come for Ukraine to capitalize on this and we will see how the West acts going forward here – my worldview will be shaped in the coming half year.
You do remember what the Russians never comment on with a word – all the knocked-out refinery capacity.
Now we add the oil depots and combined heat and power plants but some protests about civilian targets have been heard?
We can be sure that this stings enormously even though the pessimists want to relativize it – if Ukraine was brought to its knees by it then logically the same must apply to the Russians?
Now it’s September and several of the big heating plants have been visited.
The strategic bombing war was lost by RU already early 2024 and now UA continues to shoot down +80% of Russian sorties but gets through their own long-range drones deep inside.
We haven’t discussed all this for a while now but UA has purposefully knocked out soft vehicles in the logistics, refineries, fuel depots and ammunition stores and that must make a difference at the fronts.
That the Russians are thirsty we know and surely ammunition transports and lunches are disrupted as well.
We don’t yet have a broader fuel shortage and above all the number of vehicles running on diesel is fewer today and more screaming running across the fields. When they started running around like little firebombs with jeep jerry cans it doesn’t matter if it’s a fuel shortage or not because they run.
I think that by the end of October when the ground bearing capacity becomes poor RU will have a really hard time with maintenance for a while and it’s already pretty bad.
Operation Turn Off The Lights during 2023 was effective and they seem to intend to increase it strongly this year – very good.
You can see the refineries yourselves how UA moves the fighting further and further away which means the targets closer are knocked out.
The fact that Russia no longer reports production figures should be read as they have less and less to report amid all the burning distillation towers.
I counted 4 refineries in recent weeks that have been targeted with some risk of error.
August 28 there were possibly three refinery attacks, I think some oil depots were involved as well so probably fewer.
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1828746107247050987?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
September 1 there was a refinery in Moscow
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1830100838746067450?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Then UA has probably announced that the annual production is some million short-range drones, tens of thousands of medium-range and 2,500 with mega endurance?
They shoot down a few hundred in their raids so they definitely have drones for a big hit at least once a week indefinitely.
It will be interesting to see how September and October develop here until the ground bearing capacity makes bigger movements difficult, we can probably expect a lively southern front at least.
It has gone from headwind to tailwind here but the only reason for that is that Ukraine did what we all hoped for but didn’t dare to believe – didn’t give a damn about the US.
If the consequences become too severe it can absolutely go backwards again but so far we are in the window of this year’s offensive MECHANIZED (😎) operations and we get to see it play out for a while.
So many tall tales we have heard – never mechanized combat again, it will be trenches like World War I, no offensive in 2024 and more. These should consider where they got their information from or alternatively we should consider what information they wanted to convey to the rest of us.
It is my absolute conviction that Ukraine learned a lesson in 2023 and they have already shown that they have excluded NATO commanders from this year’s battle plan so they should not crash like last year after following bad advice (almost makes you suspect they had a purpose considering all the rumors about negotiations but we have to wait until after the war because that is too sensitive).
What you must not forget now is that Ukraine in 2024 also knows how to break through defensive lines and minefields.
Both the well-built fortification systems but also the deep minefields – now this year they can get through them.
UA has an absolute advantage in night combat capability, drone weapons (locally), armored vehicles, and above all, the entire Western SOF is operating behind the Russians’ lines.
The Russians are starting to become prey just like in Luhansk in the winter of 2023. Difficult to defend themselves when the flares begin to run out and UA advances like vampires with the latest image intensifier.
https://x.com/banderafella/status/1829798314738372918?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w