12:27 – MatsExtrude
Thanks for today’s wall! 👍👍👍
The eel almost sounded like he was about to suggest a ceasefire, we’ll see if he dares to take it that far.
It will be interesting to see what Ukraine comes up with next. I don’t really believe in Belarus (by the way, are Wagner and the Chinese really still there? I thought at least the latter were only there for exercises?).
With all the floating craft, I think more of operation “optimist dinghy” led by TheOldMan.
Maybe also another operation into Russia but further north to spread them out even more.
By the way, where is the liberation army? Time for them to come up with something creative.
Speaking of TheOldMan, I actually couldn’t resist and tried to check how he was doing. Never managed to spot him, he was too far out, but I heard him roar so it echoed over the fjord.
– Flat-footed damn deckhand, sail home, for heaven’s sake make sure the corpse lives, you filthy landlubber!
I guess he had taken too many drinks and forgotten that he was sitting in an optimist dinghy, a sailboat made for one person. Maybe he got confused and thought the walker was a crew member?
Sounds at least like he is fired up!
By the way, for those who don’t know. It was TheOldMan who inspired Hergé to create the character Captain Haddock, mostly because of the swearing and not his seamanship. TheOldMan had barely been to sea at that time, his two morning drinks combined with slight seasickness made him terribly seasick.
He seems to have gotten over it now, or maybe he realized he needs more than two drinks to manage?
Looking forward with excitement to his upcoming efforts, unless Budanov finally gives up hope.
12:55 – Johan No.1
Hahaha, excellent 🤣🤣🤣
Today’s loud laugh in the car so colleagues wondered
13:12 – MatsExtrude
Laughed just as much at your digression about TheOldMan! 👍
13:49 – Johan No.1
In 2024 the war is no longer a “special operation” on someone else’s territory where the only loss is the army.
The war is on Russian territory for the first time since WW2 and drones are buzzing around Moscow and bombing as they please.
It’s probably getting quite hard for Putin to sell this to the rest of the criminal clan now.
13:57 – Johan No.1
haha, yes that’s an old classic when he was supposed to play B-force at Muskö 🤣🤣
A destroyer sank and it has since been completely covered up.
14:34 – MatsExtrude
😂😂😂 Yes, that was when he got together with the kitchen lady just to trick her into giving him the key to the liquor cabinet (we know how he is). After he drank everything, he became completely hopeless.
Heard something about him also managing to shoot up the Älvsnabben monument and that what stands there now is just a replica.
19:16 – Johan No.1
Regarding RU counterattack against the Sejm encirclement.
155th is an anorexic unit.
The other unit trying to break out is probably the one involved – the Air Force brigade or a VDV.
That is probably more desperate and it means that as soon as they have exhausted themselves, UA will accelerate in the NW and W.
This is very good.
Suspect there are more than 2000 trapped behind the Sejm.
19:18 – Johan No.1
probably wrong about that unit or those units being encircled vice versa but 155th and RU airforce maybe?
08:09 – Johan No.1
Things are moving in the direction of RU counterattack
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1833653249561227576?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
11:39 – Johan No.1
The Lions
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1832523358447267953?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Lavrov delivers an olive branch about the size of a Greek olive grove – the tone has shifted from bombing London and wiping out Ukraine to now portraying them as a misunderstood victim, not far from them standing and crying loudly at the UN 😀
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3l3rwzsjqwg2x
It can’t be very fun for Putin to stand at his large panoramic window in the Kremlin and see drones circling over Moscow without being shot down, Moscow is a prioritized air defense area.
A Grom 2 in the Kremlin is at the top of Budanov’s list and considering that the Russians tried to bomb the Rada, have bombed GUR, and are trying to strike targets where Western instructors, commanders, and others are, it is a legitimate target and a proportionate response.
I sense some influence operations in statements from Ukraine and updates like Deepstate right now, they are downplaying the situation. In 2023 they tried to paint it in a brighter light instead and I see this as something very positive. Remember 2023 there were lots of videos of troops in large numbers until they hit minefields and panicked. This year there is nothing, we see no movements, no mechanics, nothing. It’s just the usual videos of dying and fleeing Russians.
Now at least I am waiting for the next step in the Ukrainian multi-stage rocket, to stop the Russian offensive at Pokrovsk and the invasion of Russia up near Kursk is by no means all the steps, most would understand that if they bother to add up available units and which have been used.
At various fronts there is talk of “clean units in new Western vehicles who are happy and in good spirits” – sounds to me like units that have been in recovery and re-equipped and trained since autumn 2023 which we have also guessed has happened for the simple reason that Ukraine is defending with a numerical disadvantage of 5:1 or up to 10:1 so lots of redundancy among the maneuver brigades.
Bryansk is already being probed by UA so they don’t reveal anything to point it out but something is also happening around Belarus right now.
We will see where it heads but if Ukraine can topple Lukashenko and let the citizens have their way it would be a bigger chess move in terms of destabilization for Russia actually. Probably the Siloviki would become really worried and maybe even consider leaving Ukraine alone?
It was underway a few years ago but the West chose to let Putin keep control and turned a blind eye when he sent in his internal troops who tortured the opposition. There were lots of videos outside detention facilities where you could hear the screams of dying civilian protesters.
I don’t believe the Belarusian defense forces are 100% loyal to Lukashenko, we know what the citizens want from before, and there are a couple of Belarusian regiments in Ukraine so probably thousands of Belarusians who today are veterans and very capable who want to liberate their country.
Maybe all that is needed is a little push from Ukraine but it is a bit messy with a few thousand former Wagner in the country and a Chinese SOF company. However, Russian units are gone and Lukashenko has had to donate quite a lot of his heavy equipment to Russia.
Lukashenko has also recently hinted at a successor so maybe the Chinese are there to fly him out if it falls apart 😀
Anyway, Ukraine has brought offensive capability to the border with Belarus and it is a possible attack vector like many others, which brigades they are is not discussed but that they are there lurking with an offensive strike is out in the open.
At the southern front there is opsec cover but we know what will happen thanks to someone photographing Dengamle in light blue speedos at Skärholmen swimming pool and in northern Luhansk it is starting to look attractive if the unit maps are correct.
I am also looking at the Pokrovsk bulge and feel that Ukraine should be able to have drone coverage on all access roads to the 30 brigades operating in the area.
18 trucks with supplies per day is what a brigade should have if maintenance works so 540 vehicles moving on a couple of roads per day where UA drones reach.
Feels like you could quite quickly create fuel shortage, water shortage, ammo shortage and general misery among the units in the Pokrovsk bulge.
The cost-benefit ratio would be sky-high and I see no blocking battalions in that area but maybe they are not marked?
A good time to cut the roads, and the southern one is almost contested as it is, is when the ground becomes impassable for wheeled vehicles in a few months 👍
– a good candidate for collapse thus.
Ukraine needs to conduct operations where their advantage in capability and combined arms warfare evens out the numerical disadvantage.
They need air landings, mobile combat, amphibious combat, drone warfare, SOF deep strikes and they need to hit where RU is currently vulnerable.
Now Kursk has created several vulnerabilities that RU will of course patch over time so it is a “window of opportunity” for a while ahead.
Now we know why the 72nd was pulled from Vuhledar and I wrote the other day that the 47th was “free”.
Which NG brigade it was we don’t know and presidential 1 is also standing around eating sausage 😀
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3l3q5zkjdw32p
Now Dengamle has finished the dolphin at Skärholmen’s swim school and no one is happier to get rid of him than Skärholmen swimming pool which didn’t really have a choice when Budanov personally booked the swim school for him under another name and fake age.
Then he was supposed to learn to drive a RIB boat but after puncturing one with a dull fork so it sank when he was about to eat sausage he is now taking a quick course in Optimist dinghy out by the Maritime Museum which has been perceived as safer. He has a ban from entering the Maritime Museum, the Technical Museum and the Ethnographic Museum after he managed to burn down an old unique thousand-year-old Eskimo tent with fire-sensitive mummies in an exhibition when he tried to secretly smoke a cigarette and the Maritime Museum is terrified for their wooden boat models.
There are also problems with personal equipment, he couldn’t resist testing the life vest and pulled the cord so it inflated and the assigned AK5 he managed to fill with dirt so it blew the barrel on the first training shooting out at I1 in Kungsängen.
This is a collaboration between GUR and the armed forces run by MUST but there are rumors that the armed forces are starting to get tired and are considering dropping out.
Previously it was important for them to shine with Dengamle’s creative problem solving and when Budanov wanted to go solo with Dengamle they threw in six extra Combat Boat 90s to be able to write that it was a Swedish operation but now they are starting to hesitate if it was worth it.
Now, Dengamle’s absolute qualities are not that, but that in a cloud of chaos he always manages the impossible, admittedly often with extreme devastation for third parties, but the task is always solved where special forces have previously failed and the missions were considered impossible.
Actually, no one really understands how, but they have just accepted the natural force Dengamle as it is, and that is why Budanov has infinite patience; he knows he will get full return when Dengamle eventually struggles into the life jacket and gets going.
Yes, he will leave a wide firebreak of devastation behind him as usual, but the success of the operation depends on whether Dengamle can pass the optimist dinghy course, which puts some pressure on a resigned instructor right now, but Dengamle has learned not to lose the keel in the water at least, which is better than yesterday.
Ukraine has its own JDAMS now.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3l3rxoyvxvt2k
Managed to lose half the post when Word shut down and on restart a lot of text disappeared – that really sucks and makes you unmotivated 😐
Saving all the time is for chickens, Russian roulette with Word makes life exciting.
How Putin could sleep through August 6 is strange because RU knew about the offensive in June-July already. Everyone who has a different opinion about the start of the offensive is, by the way, Russian double agents, and the thread has hit two dates – 2023 is internationally accepted as the offensive starting May 4.
However, Zelensky et al. have tried to blow us away – now they said this after 2023 when the battle plans were in Moscow hours after they were presented – that NO ONE was to find out about it including the USA.
But yes, when Zelensky started hinting about peace and no equipment and the West wavered, it was pretty tough. We were supposed to watch what happened and UA retreated, no F-16s, the USA sabotaged and started hiding. Life could have been more fun and morale was getting dangerously low among the Ukrainians too.
Which is what I think is behind this as well as a reason – to keep the motivation up.
Then I arrogantly talked about the Krunky effect but it is the Davydiv Brid effect, you “land” in a completely new and undefended place and the defender must get reinforcements there who then have to travel by road – worked excellently at Davydiv Brid, better at Krunky and I guess like a well-oiled windmill at Kursk.
Those of you who have been in the thread for a while and sacrificed your jobs just like me remember that stroke of genius and the cheers on the trampoline.
Most likely, huge amounts of reinforcements that never arrive have been knocked out – I’m beginning to suspect that up to half of the reinforcements rushed in were knocked out during the first week.
It’s the constant discussion about whether Ukraine has inferior soldiers in the thread vs the world’s best infantry. I think Accentmannen has a good description of the mechanized fall of an NG brigade that looks professional. We can hope that Dracarys is used widely now.
https://youtu.be/m2n1y7c1Sgc?si=A6EjioJSd0LRGhVd
Maybe some in the thread are ready to change their opinion about the world’s best infantry now that they are beating Russia in fair combat despite being outnumbered?
We in the armored shooting would need 3:1 in numbers to storm defense systems, I recall.
They broke through two defense lines and rolled out maneuver warfare with cooperation between all branches and the new drone weapon with reconnaissance, effect, and EW.
Ukraine has already won this because they fight outnumbered and inflict proportionally higher losses on RU. So far, RU has plugged the holes with armored vehicles and more barbarians, but armored vehicles are running out and they are getting worse-trained soldiers who die faster.
The slippery slope.
Personally, this is exactly how I sat and felt Ukraine should act since sometime around the turn of the year and have tried to describe it in the thread in the best way I could. I also thought we would see this in 2023 and was probably as disappointed as Ukraine that the USA constantly stopped everything that would make a difference.
Then when “no offensive 2024” spread, I chose to bet my reputation that there would be a mechanized offensive in 2024 to at least turn some doubters, but apart from MXT it was pretty empty on my substitute bench and much fuller on the gloomers’ side.
Now, they probably could have gone south first instead of north and achieved the same result but the flanks first and then we have this year’s flycatcher at Avdiivka.
The Azov thrust we have guessed could decide the war and I still believe that is true – if Crimea falls, it becomes untenable.
The purpose of Kursk is the Belgorod Peoples Republic discussion – that Putin must start negotiating to get back the northern Oblasts and his trapped army corps down in Crimea instead of how much land he can keep in Ukraine, that’s where we are heading and that’s why Lavrov sends an olive branch.
Now keep your eyes on leaders in the West who will start pushing peace negotiations with a ceasefire, if anyone does (which we haven’t seen yet) they are either in Putin’s pay or so incompetent they should be fired 🧐
This bears repeating – RU has lost the strategic bombing campaign badly, already early 2024 it was lost. This is now so obvious that people barely comment on it anymore but imagine if high-value targets in Sweden were hit twice a week?
Not many drones get near Kiev and we see videos of drones circling over Moscow undisturbed – exciting to say the least.
However, I must admit that what I thought was an honor code among the clan – that strength is everything – does not apply to Putin’s men who have been without shorts for quite some time actually, but PerraG55 understands this better even though I am working on a post about just this.
I thought the Siloviki put their survival first and that is very limited at present with a pretty big threat.
Getting rid of Putin and ending the war through a full retreat in exchange for eased sanctions is, to me, the easiest way out.
Or do Putin and his closest still have too good control over the situation?
They absolutely had it during the vodka run 2023 and that was only a year ago.
As I said, I am working on a world-leading post on the subject that will rock the internet and add a couple of new dates to historians’ descriptions of the war.
More open criticism of Putin on social media, I see a lot of that now. Maybe our time’s revolution will come from unemployed PMC soldiers?
https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1829498420480122998?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
To make it a bit difficult in the thread for those who usually write that “quantity is a quality in itself” regarding Russia not being able to lose like this, here is a good explanation of why UA has more soldiers at the spearhead than Russia and thus has both quantity and quality and will win.
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1828502579002671212?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w