13:14 – Johan No.1
I managed to out that in yesterday’s thread so I might as well report that Dengamle crossed the northern border at Medvezhe yesterday but right now it is quiet. To minimize all risk, he got a mountain bike and this time he managed to cross the border without ditch crashes.
14:08 – MatsExtrude
👍 Lovely positive-positive but I myself am probably not completely calm, it will be an interesting week ahead.
I wrote earlier (when you were away) that I want to see Ukraine enter Russia along E38 and sprint towards Rylsk.
If it is just as sparsely fortified there and they get through, the Russians will have problems with logistics and will be forced to fight on two fronts.
If they meet too strong resistance, of course, they have to retreat before suffering losses, but even if that happens, the Russians will have to react.
14:08 – MatsExtrude
Great to hear!
14:19 – Johan No.1
I am also waiting for E38 and for 101 up towards Bryansk 😀
Now they are de facto behind the Russian defense lines and SHOULD be able to roll up but yes, it will be an exciting week because there are 2-3 new UA brigades in the area.
And eventually everything will start down south.
16:54 – Johan No.1
I think it seems very simple if in 5-10-15 years there suddenly will be a battery suitable for large-scale storage or as an add-on to a home for the same price as some heat pump – then solar/wind/battery will be the alternative we hope it will be and then we will go for it.
Apparently, the next generation of solar cells will also be able to work in winter?
Until then, we have to rely on other power sources and shutting down nuclear power first and hoping for the best was capital destruction on an astronomical scale, and it became expensive for those of us who live somewhere and want it warm.
And no one has really been held accountable for that decision which, if it had been a company, would have led to dismissal.
I don’t really know what the mix should be now but looking at what we have, I think we should be able to expand hydropower considerably and we could do that but a certain party is stopping it.
Then it is almost only nuclear power left and a couple of reactors in southern Sweden would probably be enough?
Wind power also has a lifespan that is SIGNIFICANTLY shorter than nuclear reactors, is that included in the figures presented yesterday?
I also got the impression that post was written with a purpose rather than in an honest discussion.
16:57 – Johan No.1
You have to be careful that the solar power and wind power lobby don’t hijack the discussion and try to create advantages for themselves over other power sources by calling them environmental destroyers and their own power source environmentally friendly.
Then you can also look at where some work after politics because just as the Moderates go to the business sector, some from other parties have ended up in that industry, or so I have gathered.
18:12 – Johan No.1
Yep, that’s exactly what should have been done 👍
The NATO meeting 2023 was an absolute disaster where many representatives went out in the media and called Ukraine ungrateful, Ben Wallace lost his position because of it.
The strategic communication has been a disaster but even worse is that the West has had some kind of roadmap with Putin all along until Zelensky finally broke free. Putin has almost been allowed to cheat his way to a win and everything has been predictable for him.
For example, he never needed to secure his northern border because Ukraine would never cross it. Already in 2023 they had 11 brigades up there before they gave up.
If Ukraine had been able to smash the entire VDV in Kherson in 2022, this war could already have been over but Putin threatened with nuclear weapons and the USA forced Ukraine to release them – cheating 😡
And for what?
What was gained from that?
19:34 – MatsExtrude
Don’t ask, because soon someone will say that it’s good to boil the frog slowly.
The fact that Ukrainians are dying and that there is a risk of a Ukrainian collapse before that frog is fully boiled doesn’t seem to have occurred to them.
09:06 – Johan No.1
For a while now, Ukraine has been “downplaying” reports in general – things are going better than we are led to believe.
Then the operational security cover over the Dnipro front and up near Kursk.
Now that Russia is crossing pontoon bridges and attacking, losses are likely running high up there but today’s figure is probably from the failed attack in Pokrovsk that Erik14 wrote about.
Up near Kursk, Ukraine also showed a few days ago how easy it is to cross the mine lines at the border.
13:10 – Johan No.1
Mek is on the move 💥💥
https://x.com/nevedimka123/status/1833727203508462002
Not entirely clear why the thread hasn’t exploded when Erik14 and myself have posted about Ukraine’s violent assault up in Kursk, does the morning coffee take that long to kick in?
It is thus underway that the territory conquered in Kursk will be doubled.
There are also weak Twitter rumors that UA has crossed the border in other places in Bryansk oblast but I may very well have misinterpreted something here so zero bets on that yet, we have to wait until Erik14 posts something on the matter then it is confirmed 👍
However, this coincides with new elite units being moved to the Kursk area.
Hopefully we avoid Trump, wind power, and Swedish domestic politics today and that the thread manages to focus on what is important – that Ukraine is continuing a successful violent offensive in Russia and conquering more territory for its national legal land bank.
Ukraine immediately launched a counteroffensive against the Russian Sejm counteroffensive and crossed the border in the south at Medvedhze. That reaction time was a bit of a world record.
It is a well-chosen point behind the attacking trench Russians who are attacking east in that area, some might call it a curveball.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1833875561237672343?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
If they can break the back of the Sejm Russians, the way is basically open NW and N while they defend NE and E and absorb the larger Russian counterattack that is starting up (and if it is not starting up, it is an indication that Putin is done for but it SHOULD be starting up).
They can then cross the Sejm on pontoon bridges and start rolling up the border to the NW all the way to Bryansk, and they can cross the border in the entire Bryansk Oblast pretty much as they want.
It may be that UA waited for the Russian attack to make it easier for them to clear out the Sejm Russians and if everything is now in motion it won’t take very long before the area is conquered and legally Ukrainian national territory according to Lex Putin.
They seem to have gotten quite far into RU territory in the counteroffensive against the counteroffensive, either they have crossed at several places but at least crossed at Medvezhe and are now in Kulbaki and Kobaki.
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1833944501938749649?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I didn’t dare to guess what type of battle it was but this looks like RU is trying to rescue and pull out the Sejm Russians and that UA is pressing hard, we’ll see.
Anyway, UA has now opened a new attack vector in the area where the Russians are weak which is smartly fought as always.
Play with the idea a bit that Ukraine manages to repel all Russian counterattacks in the coming weeks and significantly increases conquered (new legal Ukrainian territory according to Putin’s precedent) NW into Bryansk oblast.
How will discussions go among the leadership in Russia then?
Do they begin to realize that they cannot manage to throw Ukraine out of its own territory (which is no longer their own territory but legally Ukrainian territory according to Lex Putin)?
When do they start feeling that it is time to leave the pesky Ukrainians alone who are becoming increasingly difficult to handle now that Ukraine is legally increasing its land area with some nice farmland and a few towns in what was previously the Russian federation but is now internationally recognized Ukraine?
Kursk is starting to look very exciting anyway because Putin has so far since August 6 been completely unable to throw out the not-so-little cheeky Ukrainians and he has had over a month to do so. This is priority 1 for Russia right now and he has brought forward dozens of brigades and according to Zelensky 60,000 soldiers – these are the best units RU has brought forward so they have nothing better up their sleeve than this – “this is it” as MJ would have said and done a pirouette.
If UA can pair this with Belarus collapsing, the war is probably quite close to the end because even a large oligarch has a pain threshold and an unstoppable invasion of Russia has every chance of becoming a grassfire that immediately spreads for them. Interesting in this context that Ukraine has recently brought offensive capacity against Belarus.
Then Putin probably starts feeling that his orange pals in the USA are no longer heading for a guaranteed election victory which is a very big risk factor for him and then he sees just like the rest of us how Zelensky has been able to start dictating terms to Biden and not the other way around when it comes to the red line missiles that would lead to nuclear war and a wiped-out London – at least.
As with all other red lines in this war, they end with Zelensky jumping on them while Putin whines quietly and looks away.
Predictability for Putin is completely gone now – anything can happen when the USA can no longer control Ukraine as they promised.
To secure the northern border and Belarus, Russia needs at least half a million which they do not have because they are all in Ukraine.
Now we wait with excitement to see what China has to say about peace negotiations here after Turkey says Crimea is Ukrainian – China has hinted at peace negotiations this fall.
China also has a distant pain threshold and they are not very keen on the Houthis sinking everything they can in the Red Sea for example and not on Iran getting carried away – in fact China has asked Iran to sit down already and Iran gave China the finger with Russia’s good knowledge.
China had envisioned a pressured Ukraine that agreed to a ceasefire and then negotiations would start where UA would eventually have to give up a good deal of conquered territory. Not all territory so China would look like shining stars in the negotiations who gave a little back to UA – all already agreed with Putin as it should be.
Just as Putin has already agreed with the West on how the negotiations would go but Zelensky et.al have absolutely refused and crashed the whole party.
Autumn 2023 you decide yourselves but I think the USA planned for Zelensky to be weakened after the failed spring offensive where he was forced to jump on the best fortified front section in the whole war, and failed, and that there would be negotiations but Zelensky simply refused in the end.
The following coincided in time – forced to attack in the wrong place and against what UA themselves wanted, rumors that negotiations would take place during the fall, super-arrogant peace proposal from Putin and completely stopped support from the West for 8 months (when everything was in stock ready to be sent). To me it looks like if the plan was not this then the result would have been this if it had not been for a Ukraine that never gives up regardless of the odds.
China cannot possibly handle Kursk and upcoming Bryansk because they have already discussed in terms of which areas want to belong where and now the Kursk Peoples Republic is starting its propaganda.
The heavy bombing with drones is also difficult for them to handle because they have never condemned Russia’s terror bombings against Ukraine.
China has lost quite a bit of credibility and will not be able to be the adult in the room mostly thanks to all of Putin’s mistakes here.
We will see what Biden’s widely announced drone bombings of Russia are intended for – either it is to put pressure on Biden as was preceded in the media, to give Russia an exit from the war, or to pressure China. In any case, it is not bad for Ukraine except that it comes too late and is so well announced in advance that Putin can calmly move all aircraft beyond the line now being discussed, which is the maximum range of the ammunition in question. This is primarily the first time the US has chosen to pre-announce something this clearly – previously it exploded first and then the decision came out in the media.
If I may guess, the US Department of Defense is starting to get a bit shaky over the fact that the EU is now talking about its own weapons without US components and EU first – this is something to preempt lightning-fast if one may guess, and then it is better that Ukraine wins the war quickly than the prolonged war they wanted since they would not be able to sell anything in the future otherwise – now I am guessing wildly.
I am still worried that FAB bombers are not being taken out because they cause great damage and are dropped in the hundreds. It is unclear how the offensive at Sejm went, but Russia advanced at least, and if it is because Russia has been allowed to keep its air force, it is a disaster.
This war has been allowed to go on far too long just like so many other wars have been allowed to go on far too long, but Ukraine is special in this context because they themselves are well on their way to resolving this and winning over Russia in a fair war.
I will try to stay realistic here, but I think it is about time to speculate how long Putin et al. can continue this war – I also have another post in the works on the subject that is world-leading and will give historians a lot of information.
– Right now Putin is beginning to realize that Trump is a loser and China is also starting to pull back – their banks are stopping transactions in rubles.
– Putin’s MENA escalation turned into nothing because Iran apparently did not dare to go all in.
– Russia is invaded and he is unable to retake the area, so even Putin probably understands that his defense forces are not as capable as he (perhaps) has been led to believe.
– His deal with the US has been swept away by Zelensky and with that went predictability.
Zelensky’s latest peace proposal is super slick for everyone except Putin – Zelensky, a man made of granite.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3l3x2anhabb2t
I think we are slowly reaching the point where it costs significantly more than it is worth, and this was supposed to be a quick smash-and-grab that massaged Putin’s imperialist ego – not this nightmare that never ends.
Yes, we have to go through several more stages of the West trying to pressure Ukraine, but so far Zelensky has shown both that he can keep a grip on the situation and stand up to the West – the man has the integrity of our time’s Churchill.
They especially have enough materiel (even though they need more) to not give Russia the upper hand again.
At some point, Russia will either simply declare a smashing victory and withdraw from Ukraine because all the naz…ters are dead and especially to save the children. Alternatively, it will be Swan Lake on TV – those are the two options we have on the table right now when Zelensky AND Ukraine show that they will never agree to cede territory to Russia but instead have TAKEN territory FROM Russia.
The pessimists can relativize this as much as they want; until very recently, the Kursk offensive had failed because Russia did not withdraw units from Ukraine according to them. Ukraine is actually holding captured terrain and continues to take more territory in the area – looks good to me no matter how you look at it.
Also, the strategic offensive reserve is not exhausted, or it has not even been used, so there is more to come.
Squared – positive this Thursday morning 👍
Frontline pre-attack on ammunition depots
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1834000935045194237?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Meklejon with exciting weapon stations
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1833222529210847500?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w