11:38 – MatsExtrude
Looks good! That map was very positive compared to DeepStateMap! 👍
Did you draw it yourself?
Joking aside, the left offensive should not be a problem, the other one depends a bit on how much the Russians can manage to deploy. But if the map is correct, they must have a hard time getting reinforcements past Korenevo.
Really hope the map and reality match!
11:51 – Johan No.1
Yes, I made it myself – have to back up my claim of capturing Sejm before the week ends.
12:03 – Johan No.1
Idiotic angle on this so trying to preempt it –
The military leaders see this from a military strategic perspective and are against it.
Zelensky sees political and motivational advantages that outweigh the risks they are forced to take.
Everything is as it should be.
https://x.com/euromaidanpress/status/1835972969547366741?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
12:11 – MatsExtrude
Yes, completely unnecessary and stupid to bring that up!
Sounds more like made-up stuff, something an American news site would write about and refer to “secret sources within the Ukrainian army”.
12:28 – MatsExtrude
Yes, then you’ll probably have to push hard, I think it will take at least another week.
12:33 – Johan No.1
Now this is Igor so some caution is recommended but he writes “active fighting” along the border north of the Kursk bulge. Then we have evacuation and a rumor from Hasse’s source about an attack vector or reconnaissance fight along road 101.
We also have at least three brigades that have been discussed as being in place but we know they are not in Kursk or Kharkiv because they don’t show up on the maps.
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1835746537118536014?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
We get two pictures of Kursk right now – one showing RU advancing and one where UA is doing well and historically Accentmannen has often been right – he thinks it’s going great. That blog Hasse posts is also positive and he seems to know because he has better situation maps than we do.
I am positive – and have already announced that Ukraine will take the area behind Sejm in about a week and then everything else must happen, otherwise it would be unreasonable.
What I can say for sure is that the swamp sites don’t have many prisoners or knocked-out UA equipment to show after the TDF brigade that took the first hit.
Then there is also the terrain – RU must try to get everything across pontoon bridges or a single access road and UA fell on them from behind. RU has the terrain against them and a counterattack in the rear to handle.
What is needed now is for UA to get momentum in the third attack vector from Tetkino where the Ranger corps is wreaking havoc.
Not very worried about the eastern flank of the bulge because there they can retreat behind the watercourse and then Sudza should be a fortress according to earlier reports.
To the north they seem to hold some dominant terrain so the situation behind Sejm must be cleared and the dug-in Russians removed.
According to yesterday, there seem to be two pontoon bridges and yes, one conclusion you can draw from this is that if you just have a hell of a lot of bridging equipment and engineers you can maintain some continuity even if you lose bridges – something for the West to keep in mind when the manuals are rewritten after this war.
https://x.com/the_lookout_n/status/1835748974718067090?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The Medvezhe offensive has not yet crossed the main defensive line in the area – we want to see that soon and not that they get stuck.
That Rylsk district is to be evacuated of civilians signals that things are not going well at all.
I stand by my belief that the Russians have had more units in the area than we have been led to believe but that they have been thinned out quite a bit and probably we will see major map changes this week.
Then UA will move further north and pair that with incursions across the border because if they have proven anything now it is that they master breakthroughs of minefields and well-built fortifications this year 2024.
There should now be 38,000 at Kursk and according to earlier info maybe 20% – 25% involved in the current offensive?
https://x.com/ralee85/status/1835533377807487247?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I think the attrition rate has been high since they have to advance over pontoon bridges and along a single road that runs parallel 4 km from UA lines which is like a damn shooting range.
But we know RU drops 4000 FABs per month and now we know they have greatly increased rocket production.
This is an old argument from 2023 already – back then there were 12 military bases just north of the border with Ukraine where vehicles stood in the hundreds on staging areas and they were in large barracks and ammunition depots. There the next brigade was prepared for deployment in Ukraine and at the start of the Kharkiv offensive 2024 they moved calmly up to the border and only there did Ukraine get to strike them.
PREDICTABLE and convenient for Putin thanks to the USA.
During 2022 the units just fled across to the Russian side of the border and were immediately safe from Ukraine which was not allowed to cross it.
For Ukraine to capitalize maximally on Kursk they must get permission, and ammunition, to strike all these bases and other high-value targets inside Russian territory.
They have now presented the list to Biden and a month-long campaign would cause ammunition shortages, fuel exhaustion and no reserves as well as no FABs.
The rockets are in storage and the brake is political.
After that, when there are no more reserves, maybe Putin will be dark enough to want to declare a grand victory and leave Ukraine.
Or Ukraine can continue pushing the Russians out step by step and see if any of the steps like the Azov thrust are enough for the Russians to pull back.
But regardless of that, it is smart warfare to hit the logistics hard now in 2023 just like they did in 2022 so Kherson fell – that the USA is holding back is hard to understand.
Krunky was of course training for larger landings and if you remember the big campaign plan UA was to land with battalion size at suitable locations under their own artillery umbrella and then air, army aviation and indirect fire would wipe out the task forces as they came rolling on the highway.
This year we have to add the drone weapon but the concept stands.
There are endless suitable places along the Dnieper and the shore towards the Black Sea before Crimea where they can land, go on defense and then wipe out everything that comes nearby.
They probably learned not to hold too long at Krunky because at some point the Russians get everything in order and can start causing damage.
Already today raids are in full swing and 10-15 vehicles so bigger operations.
RU brought the 76th GAAD to the area as offensive reserve which makes it a bit harder but they also die on the highway just like everyone else.
I feel that we have witnessed an Adolf being born and rising to the skies with Putin – exactly the same tendencies and actions, and if we go by history, he is beyond all salvation – straight into the wall.
Straight into the wall is also something very Russian that is often followed by a huge crash.
Why they did not declare victory and returned to plundering the country Russia is a mystery to me, but they did not.
Has that train left, I don’t know.
I think we are beginning to see early signs that Putin can no longer plug the holes in the leaking sieve, he is unable to retake Kursk.
He has had to abandon the Pokrovsk offensive.
The artillery had to be moved.
Apparently, the LPR and DPR army corps, 1st and 2nd AC (as they were called before), are critically low on everything including personnel.
https://x.com/chriso_wiki/status/1835588885528617075?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
They have been at the front the whole war and sacrificed themselves for nothing.
Apparently, there is a glaring lack of mobilizable personnel in the new Russian republics, and when Ukraine attacked at Opytne before they lost the entire Avdiivka area, there was some DPR brigade that was only 200 strong, malnourished, and that ran immediately.
Up to Kursk, Putin has sent his best 38,000 troops in units.
What remains at the fronts is worse.
Yes, there are 700,000 in Ukraine (according to reports) but that is far from the elite.
It is vital that Ukraine can maintain the pressure now, and to be able to do that the West needs to –
-support Ukraine and not propose ceasefires
-provide heavy vehicles, ammunition, air defense, elite aircraft, training.
Mostly, whoever has the most bullets wins.
But then Ukraine needs hope, the soldiers at the fronts who are ready to sacrifice themselves need hope. The US’s slow strangulation was very demoralizing for the Ukrainians but now with Kursk, they are lively again.
If Putin gets an out now in 2024, I will conclude that this is rigged but we are absolutely not there yet.
Sitting and looking at different scenarios and realizing that the season when the ground bearing capacity is poor is an opportunity for UA in Pokrovsk and Dnepr, and the Bandvagn 206 will be good for that.
If you have seen the film of the 3rd Azov fights in Kharkiv, it is open fields and not the cities where RU has pushed in. I wonder what they are up to up there 😀
Interesting from Accentmannen that the attack on the oil rig was after RU fired at a civilian vessel.
Since there were 14 smaller vessels with air defense protection, it probably means they have quite good resources ready to be deployed because that operation came very quickly.
A satellite image from Engels on September 14 suggests many high-value targets at the base.
https://x.com/mt_anderson/status/1835811761326330217?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Lots of stories about drone pilots becoming shooters now – self-cleansing
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3l4dlkudle42u
Just like with the amphibious fight where Ukraine has now learned and is learning, they have tested breakthroughs of defensive lines up in Kursk and a new tactic with a lot of movement/maneuver warfare that completely confuses the Russians.
Yes, they practice and learn just like everyone else, and the breakthroughs went brilliantly and now we will see how the maneuver warfare goes.
From Erik14
https://x.com/AndySch64494719/status/1835929104123646187
They drove companies directly in wheeled splinter protection that could move fast, and if they have good control of the area through drone reconnaissance, it could become hell for RU but it is crucial to have the information advantage and not rush straight into an ambush behind minefields.
They have previously led clearing of trenches with drones which has given UA total superiority but my god how difficult it must be with “right, left, east, west” etc. probably takes a while before it gets right.
Something for those of you who still claim that the Ukrainian army is so-so, this type of mobile warfare is enormously demanding.
And that the Russians get completely confused on the sidelines of this we can assume – they have not shown competence in this during an entire war and need static lines and known UA positions that they can concentrate forces against one at a time.
Big things are happening as said, UA is now running its dress rehearsal for how Ukraine will be liberated 😀
This one is VERY interesting that RU (maybe) will try to carry out terrorist attacks just before the election to give Trump an advantage. Now Kamala has also promised that no US soldiers are in war zones which will be a hard position to defend if a few hundred die in Syria or Yemen – now in hindsight when there has been a big discussion about fact-checking in the ABC debate.
https://x.com/bonchieredstate/status/1834921553982607522?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
We KNOW that when going through the markets after major terrorist attacks or attacks, it is not uncommon that someone/some have taken positions that go up on bad news.
Maybe I remember wrong but airlines were shorted around 9/11?
If you have the capacity, you can influence and you can also make enormous sums on it – insider trading on a global level.
It is not uncommon that before political decisions that affect the markets it is known beforehand and you can see it afterwards in the movements in the affected markets. Or when Cyprus was going to introduce capital controls and you saw it in international transfers days before.
And so on.
And Russia also engages in this because they can.
https://x.com/realjakebroe/status/1835558778441490514?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I still cannot understand Biden’s motives here because Russia is directly inside and jabbering against the US’s soft parts whether he wants it or not.
Will Kursk be Putin’s reverse Stalingrad.
13:30 – Johan No.1
Some thoughts below, brainstorming wildly.
High probability that PerraG55 will come in with corrections here 😀
So how is the condition of the mafia clan that happened to get a country – Russia?
We basically have three phases –
The fall of the Soviet Union and the oligarchs’ chance at the meat pots for real with full access to all the cool stuff in the West that they were denied during the Cold War except in diplomatic functions.
Putin’s imperial ambitions until 2022
The start of the war and until today.
When the war started and until really 2024, it was a “special operation” on another territory’s land and even though it has been sweaty at times, the West ensured that too much of the war did not come to Russia through all the decrees, red lines, and yellow cards. It is my impression that this was something Putin could handle internally, yes the army is worthless but we take measures and will win, and then it went on.
The Black Sea Fleet was Ukraine’s first big slap on Putin, he was supposed to get SWIFT back to avoid starting piracy in the Black Sea, he had agreed with the West on that, and then Ukraine goes and sinks his fleet without its own fleet, but that was also manageable.
The refineries stung and probably still sting much more than we are led to believe but it is not really seen by the broad masses since they are located remotely.
The invasion of Kursk was becoming unmanageable and, above all, uncertainty was introduced – that Ukraine no longer does what the USA and Germany tell them to do, which is deadly because then anything can suddenly happen and that was absolutely not part of the deal with the USA.
Then the protected airfields began to be targeted, that audacity must have made Putin absolutely furious, he had a_deal_with_usa and yet his elite aircraft went up in smoke, damn deal breakers and the dishonesty is total with the USA.
And now drones are buzzing over Moscow for every citizen to see – will it ever end, probably not, Putin thinks as he sits there with a headache.
Ukraine is now starting to spread all kinds of information and since they no longer do what the USA tells them to do, everything is on the table – Ukraine has long-range ballistic missiles, Ukraine might be making its own nuclear weapons, Ukraine might liberate Belarus, Ukraine might start a revolution in the republics and so on, and what is true or not is hard to know after the invasion of Russia, right?
Predictability is gone and it was that which allowed Russia to control the situation somewhat.
If Ukraine plays its cards right and the West does not let itself be talked down, maybe Russia will start feeling that it’s time to leave Ukraine alone?
That is also what Zelensky says in his peace plan – if the West gives the right support, peace will come quite quickly, Zelensky has slowly started to take the helm if you have noticed. He is probably burning his goodwill in the West but is doing what is best for the country Ukraine, which every politician should always do – what is best for the country (big hint to our seven parties).
When the Soviet Union fell, enterprising Russians could start living the luxury life in the West for real, pre-1989 it was quite limited for them. They could now funnel thousands of billions through our banking systems (which give us a trial if we try to deposit 10,000 SEK in cash), they could buy companies, homes, put their children in the best schools and the wives (because there are still quite a few male oligarchs who are unequal as they are) could shop on the finest shopping streets in the world.
Yes, everyone had a role in a system that seems to function like a criminal clan but they got serious personal dividends and could live like gods.
Suddenly they were no longer drunken and severely overweight Russians but men who were well-trained, could conduct themselves, had class and wives who lived on treadmills. Their children could be that measured polite and social that only children of parents with unlimited money and open doors to the best education and classmates can be.
Londongrad became an established term.
Some oligarchs cultivated that they were Putin-negative but when the war started in 2022 it turned out that everyone had a role – they were still loyal to Putin.
2010 or whenever Putin really started to advance positions was met with a yawn and 2014 went well. Further operations in Ukraine were seen by the siloviki and oligarchs as a chance for a quick smash-and-grab and all of Ukraine’s wealth would give them a serious cash influx after some fighting and much death.
That Putin wanted the punitive expedition had to be tolerated but there was apparently some concern among some of the smarter bigwigs.
After 2022 almost everything has crashed and Russia as a country has begun to see itself isolated as under the Soviet Union again without domestic production capacity and China is advancing against the arch-racist Russia.
Yes, it has probably been done before because the Russian empire until the revolution had access to all the fun in Europe but this must be quite an unpleasant cold shower for oligarchs and siloviki.
A bit like going bankrupt personally – you had everything and a while later you have nothing.
Then we have the mentality of a criminal clan – you are leader as long as you are strong.
There are tensions in Russia – vodka run, half of the MoD discharged, suicidal oligarchs and lots we never hear about because we don’t have full insight.
Putin has so far had the FSB on his side it seems and he is paranoid enough to be able to run ahead of problems.
The FSB and the other letter agencies have their units for murder and considering how many die in Russia and abroad, a fatwa from Putin or his circle is hard to survive.
Then we have the whole system with gulags and that your entire fortune is confiscated if you fall out of favor, a bit like the circle around medieval kings and it works.
Putin has secured total obedience but he is not alone, he is part of a circle of siloviki as we have learned from PerraG55 and his extended arm is the FSB and other letter agencies.
I guess a regime change will come from the siloviki group or the FSB, or them together.
Russia is not a country with a direct popular revolution BUT groups can do a 1917 again and it is simmering with all liberation movements in various republics.
Then we have provinces that can free themselves 1989 style – you declare independence at a moment when it cannot have consequences and it is obvious that it will not have consequences.
We have Belarus which should already have fallen (been liberated) if Putin had not rushed in internal troops.
And we have Kaliningrad.
Already today we know that the FSB and Rosgvardia are severely weakened in the Russian federation and that they cannot maintain order – they have mobile units flown in.
Then RU pulled their troops from Sumy a few weeks before UA stormed across the border in broad daylight and looked like angels, someone posted a long post in the thread.
There may be reasons to discuss if something is going on with the Russian side because since we knew that they knew Ukraine was planning an offensive it is strange that they pulled away Spetznaz, SOF and some brigade just before the offensive started.
There are several angles to this and one is that they wanted to save those units but anyway rumors say that the Kadyrovites had made some deal and let Ukraine through.
Simply put, the Kadyrovites or FSB will not die in Ukraine, that is the army’s task and they have blocking units to motivate them to solve their task. At Kursk it became immediately so that the Kadyrovites fled and then the army chose to surrender.
If that spreads it could get lively.
The third leg, the army, is today severely weakened and the attempts at uprisings we have had have been crushed hard – there is no shortage of arrested generals and units in “quarantine” (pit, torture, violence and death).
So how is the situation in Russia?
We learned already in 2022 that the war then was a fly on the wall but it is no longer – it is a big problem for Putin.
Any dictator would have already declared a landslide victory, withdrawn all troops from Ukraine, and held parades and medal ceremonies, but not Putin.
He seems to me to be all-in on this war, and the opportunity to declare a landslide victory probably disappeared with Kursk, I guess. He appears to have taken the same path as Adolf – straight into the wall.
Someone said early in the thread that the Russians only have one gear – if the amount of violence doesn’t work, they increase the level of violence.
And that’s what we’re seeing now, RU keeps escalating.
Ukraine meets it head-on, and it’s crystal clear to me that RU will only stop when it hurts too much.
The USA and the West are not helping here because they are pulling in the opposite direction and trying to avoid escalation by letting Russia escalate but not allowing Ukraine to respond – sounds fair.
But if Ukraine can hold on now at the level we see today – strategic bombing campaign, attempts to create unrest in the republics, and its own offensive with humiliating losses – we will reach the point where Russia crashes.
Because that’s what they have always done historically.
I personally believe it is inevitable.
Then they will turn inward for a couple of years and decide who becomes the new clan leader, and after that, they will return.
And then we will see which direction they go, but it’s not unreasonable that they want to regain free movement in the West instead of imperial ambitions, and it’s hard to see the West not accommodating them, unfortunately.
The crash will come suddenly – Swan Lake on TV, early rumors of a small doll-like figure hanging and dangling at a gas station soaked in gasoline, large troop movements in Moscow (Rosgvardia and all the letter agencies), and above all lots of private flights to Dubai on flight radar.
It’s not unlikely that this will happen, but when is hard to predict because there are too many factors that can change.
For example, it seems the USA has stopped certain deliveries right now, which prolongs everything, but then Ukraine will come with Dracarys drones, breakthroughs of defense lines, and mobile combat that will make recapturing defense systems much easier and counter with shortening the war that would have become a WW1 trench war according to those who knew their stuff in the thread.
We have at least seen more open threats against Putin on social media in the past month – they have regularly flown by and often from PMC.
https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1829498420480122998?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
13:54 – MatsExtrude
👍 It’s interesting to see the discrepancy between the maps depending on whether they come from the pro-Russians or the pro-Ukrainians. They give completely different situational pictures. Now, the Russians are not known for sticking to the truth, so we know who is more credible even if the pro-Ukrainians might also exaggerate a bit.
I don’t think there’s any rush with Tetkino.
West of the city is the Sejm, and the only real roads go straight into the city. Or, there is a bridge over the Sejm, but I don’t really believe in going that way. Easy to monitor.
The community also has some larger industrial buildings, and some are quite tall.
I think it would be difficult to go straight in if the Russians have a reasonably good number of soldiers and hardware there.
It’s not really Ukraine’s style to start by leveling the city to the ground. It’s probably better to let it play out further east, and when that is done, go west and then approach the city from the north and east, then it’s only left for them to give up.
Or they go in now, right in the middle, at Krasnooktyabr’skiy, and then go west, but I think it’s better to wait. There will be time to straighten out the front later.
13:59 – Johan No.1
Yes, it might happen that they carry out one of your thirteen options 👍
14:32 – MatsExtrude
I find it extremely difficult to assess the situation inside Russia; there isn’t much to go on regarding those in power.
The oligarchs and siloviki may miss London and other cities, but Dubai probably suffices, as long as there is luxury in abundance, shopping, and of course access to vodka and pink champagne. Turkey and China are places they can go if they want a change of scenery.
The question is whether their wallets are starting to suffer or if they can still profit reasonably from the Russian population. War can be beneficial for those in the right positions. Putin seems a bit grumpy about those who profit, but maybe that’s just a facade. His closest friends can probably enrich themselves; after all, it’s only the population that foots the bill.
Sooner or later, they will probably feel life is getting dull and poor, but I’m not sure we are there yet.
Though some of them might be smart and refuse to wait for the crisis to become a fact…
We’ll see what PerraG has to say!
14:36 – MatsExtrude
Yes, I’ve learned from you!
The trick is to present enough options, then one of them will come true, and then you can bask in the glory when you’re right!
14:52 – Johan No.1
Is it 300 billion or 500 billion that has been forfeited so far?
And they have a bit over 1000 billion USD in our banking systems according to PerraG55, so that’s one way to go.
The chance to become the clan leader should reasonably be the horse we want to bet on?
15:11 – Johan No.1
Exactly, but don’t tell anyone in the thread 😀
16:20 – Johan No.1
But now I’ve probably exposed myself again by saying that this week the terrain behind Sejm will be recaptured 😀
Same as the mech offensive 2024 that I promised to stake my reputation on.
16:38 – MatsExtrude
In every yellow wall, you have to write that Sejm will be recaptured within a week, so you keep doing that until it becomes true?
17:06 – Johan No.1
Saint Javelin is probably not an entirely unlikely source but perhaps conveys a rumor that Sullivan does not allow missiles in Russia.
https://x.com/saintjavelin/status/1836050091850764587?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
If it later turns out to be true – my god, what a worthless strategic communication from the USA, and above all, they minimize the damage from the invasion of Kursk instead of reinforcing it.
17:19 – Johan No.1
What the hell 😐
Yes, reading quickly, lucky that Dengamle has been to Engels and doesn’t read the thread, otherwise we’d be done for.
18:04 – Johan No.1
I have a link that I will probably never post that the EU accounts for 10% of the Russian war chest with its gas purchases.
Everyone claims ongoing contracts, but I also want to remember that the EU is supposed to renew or has already renewed the contracts.
So technically they are correct – they follow entered agreements.
But they also renew the agreements when no one is watching.
Then Russia sells oil to India, which India processes through the refinery and sells on to the EU.
18:04 – Johan No.1
So yes, the EU and Sweden co-finance Russia’s murder of children after 2.5 years
18:46 – MatsExtrude
Yes, unfortunately that’s how it is.
18:51 – MatsExtrude
More like blipped or beeped.
06:43 – Johan No.1
The entire warehouse in Toropets is burning
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1836237970111709485?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
08:00 – MatsExtrude
Great!
11:17 – Johan No.1
If this is correct in Kursk, the upcoming additional offensives look good
https://x.com/vyshnyaostap/status/1835793447698989248?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w