11:46 – Johan No.1
The fully taped lions
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1836258291791401032?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Has no one asked where Dengamle is yet? You know he left the area behind the Sejm and that he was supposed to carry out a mission with a big bang 😀
I can report that he got stuck at a roadside spot that had dirt-cheap after work booze so instead of 06:00 on September 17, the bang came yesterday instead – we have to be understanding of that and that the date he announced would have been correct. You understand yourselves that this is not a missile.
According to the thread’s stabilizer Styret, there could theoretically have been 19,000 tons of ammunition in Toropets.
According to FIRMS, virtually the entire depot is red which means it exploded over the whole area but maybe not all bunkers. If you combine Russian engineering with a huge bang and enormous heat, maybe more bunkers than we think blew here 😀
Possibly the biggest blast of the war and a good start to the morning and if I may guess, they had high-value ammunition in the depot.
Apparently, there are a dozen similar depots.
https://x.com/osinttechnical/status/1836237970111709485?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Lukashenko is very quiet about the drones flying over Belarus 🤣
Have you also noticed that a larger UA drone operation is happening weekly now?
I don’t think UA is losing more ground in Kursk right now and then Deepstatemap up by Korenevo can probably at least be accurate – UA has NS road and railway under direct and indirect fire and eyes on it but there seem to be some tracks/paths in the forest to the SW of the town. Forest roads are usually mined remotely with drones to disrupt transports at night.
The Russian attack vector towards Lyubimovka looks directly deadly for RU.
To the north, UA may have retaken Olgovka after losing it earlier so they are apparently pushing north and there are apparently 3-4 mottins left up there.
Quite a lot of good news right now from Kursk so it’s not unlikely we’ll see big map changes before the end of the week – many prisoners, many dead Russians and lots of destroyed equipment.
https://x.com/andrewperpetua/status/1835983609209000288?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Then history is being written even though the media is asleep – August 6, 2024, UA crossed the border and took about 1200 km2 and now 1.5 months later they are on their way to conquer 70% more or whatever it may be. This when RU concentrated forces in the area and was supposed to throw Ukraine out before October 1.
What does that mean?
It can only mean that RU is unable to throw Ukraine out and if they now empty the border area further north, UA is on its way to conquer even more. Some genius in the thread saw many fires on the Bryansk border on FIRMS and there are Twitter rumors that something is going on up there.
When will it stop?
Will it stop, does Putin have the capacity to build up an offensive reserve and throw Ukraine out?
There is something special about missiles and being able to shoot into Russian territory here.
We know from Ukraine’s drone campaigns that the country is wide open and unable to defend itself even at its high-value targets such as airbases for strategic bombers, ammunition/fuel depots or refineries.
We can guess that the strategic nuclear forces are equally poorly protected but there we have a sharp red line. When Ukraine took out a radar for the nuclear forces, there was an immediate call.
As Van pointed out yesterday, Germany has sent a lot and they send good equipment but for just Taurus there is a complete stop. It’s not just that but Germany prevents anyone from placing orders on Taurus to the manufacturer’s great misfortune who is missing an entire war here. Yes, Ukraine has naturally tried to order.
When the Gripen weapons system was to be used against Russian territory, the US pulled out all stops to prevent it.
The US does not even hide that they stop the UK and France from allowing Ukraine to use Scalp and Storm Shadow inside Russia.
And Biden flatly refuses missiles (ATACMS) into Russia, there was an interview recently when he was asked and he got really pissed.
The entire Russian armed forces are basically in Ukraine and yes there are high-value targets inside Russia but Ukraine is today dismantling refineries and oil depots and striking airbases.
What is not in Ukraine, and which UA is not hitting today, is the nuclear weapons infrastructure and Ukraine absolutely must not strike it even with their own drones, we know that.
We may have found Putin’s red line or a line Scholz and Biden really believe in?
Biden and Scholz may also not trust Ukraine but the UK has had personnel on site to ensure they don’t go wild, we know that after Scholz outed it so that’s not a valid argument.
But just missiles and targets in Russia seem very sensitive.
Now Ukraine actually has its own missiles for the purpose, though not in sufficient quantity but I dare bet five hundred that they will not dismantle the nuclear infrastructure anyway because behind closed curtains the US says a flat no.
Otherwise that would have been the nail in the coffin for Putin, right – that his nuke silos are blown up one after another and he can do nothing but watch the big analog screen in the operations center as lamp after lamp goes out.
This war is therefore still rigged to Ukraine’s disadvantage and I suspect that as soon as the war is over, Western countries will be quick to try to normalize relations with Russia unfortunately.
The US seems to have no problem starting an economic world war against China when it comes to semiconductors, no discussions about escalation there.
What has historically been the biggest threat to Europe – Russia or China?
What is today an economic threat to the US – China or Russia?
Who is the US trying to preserve and who do they want to hit?
Somewhat quietly, RU has retaken the defense systems behind Kliishivka so not everything is great.
We can basically ignore what the West says – strategic communication apparently doesn’t work, we can probably conclude after 2.5 years of constant failures.
But keep sending equipment is a must – without equipment Ukraine will lose eventually because Iran, NK and China send everything they can to Russia.
Kursk has revitalized the Ukrainian armed forces but if the West keeps talking down Ukraine, the defeat doctrine can spread again.
The West has a unique opportunity to do what is right here and last time we tried we got Srebrenica and Rwanda so it would be nice to get it right sometime.
I want to claim that we in the thread have pretty good control after 2.5 years and can “call bullsh1t” quite accurately so our criticism of Scholz and Biden is not entirely unfounded.
Kier Starmer’s “now the shadow fleet goes down” was exposed in five minutes.
Something our journalists should do more, I think.
In yesterday’s post, I forgot the option that there will be an orderly succession and then a new clan leader withdraws from Ukraine in exchange for eased restrictions.
Have you seen that a new criminal encrypted chat has been cracked and that Sweden has been involved – it will be interesting to see how deep organized crime reaches this time. Last time it happened, I thought it was released too quickly – the media really should investigate this.
https://x.com/brottsutredare/status/1836085081804280139?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Here you have an example of the “flood boats” Ukraine has
https://x.com/warmonitor3/status/1835629042197839910?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Russian FAB must go
https://x.com/ralee85/status/1835431101101453678?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
We wrote it before but the IMF is back in Russia
https://x.com/mylovanov/status/1835996242721063400?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
12:18 – MatsExtrude
👍
He is tricky, DenGamle, so it was just maskirovka, it was not the Kerch Bridge that was going to blow up at all.
The swimming lessons were probably just fake as well.
The fires at the border are definitely interesting, of course they can be ordinary fires and no one on either the Ukrainian or Russian side dares to do anything about them because they are at the border. Hopefully it is something more than that. It would mean that they have the ability to break in at more places and stress the Russians even more.
Shut down the IMF!
13:17 – Johan No.1
Yes, he is tricky 🤣
he has taken both swimming lessons and navigation course but everything has its time.
Yes, we will see what happens, they are right next to RU fortifications.
10:50 – Johan No.1
We have done a thorough job with the refineries and I kept track of the number of liberation deeds.
Haven’t done that with oil depots and larger ammunition stores like yesterday’s moon crater.
How many does Russia actually have?