2024-09-21 -

09:10 – Johan No.1

Wrote the below in yesterday’s thread a few minutes ago,

Apparently, there are 6 large arsenals in the nearby area and UA has vaporized two of them effortlessly.

There are 24 in total in Russia and that’s all – one can guess that those in the vicinity hold most of the ammunition.

Previously, they have taken out oil depots and refineries on a large scale.

UA uses modified Neptune together with a drone swarm apparently.

Big things are underway.

12:25 – Johan No.1

Do you see the post above from Fram i Natten that UA also took the opportunity to strike a secret location for some “missile unit” up near Toropets 😲

Sounds almost like UA is showing Putin that they can take out his strategic nuclear weapons if he doesn’t back off here.

Anyway, it feels like something big.

12:29 – Johan No.1

The lions
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1837373947760857390?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Yes, you guessed right – if you remember my description of Dengamle’s working method, he would leave a wide firebreak of devastation behind him which is what we see now and he takes no prisoners.

Before we dive into violent explosions, at least one of the maps has been updated to show the disputed area is 500m south of Glushkovo. That means all access routes are under direct fire from IFVs or tanks, or FPV drones, and they have eyes everywhere.

-Glushkovo is therefore closed and the rumor would be true.

Zvanoe is 2km away which probably in practice means that UA has the area under drone cover – that’s the second bridge over the Sejm that RU had and then there’s Karyz with its bridge – all are destroyed but can probably be fixed for temporary passage easier than pontoon bridges. And then possible pontoon bridges of course.

The units west of Glushkovo are now cut off from contact with the Russian army except over pontoon bridges.

Historically, this has been the Russians’ absolute specialty – to manage to escape so I don’t dare hope for major surrenders.
The risk is high that the number of captives will be low but heavy equipment, ammunition, and so on they will leave behind as usual.
It is now only a matter of time before the area west of Glushkovo falls as UA presses from all sides and also has the whole area under artillery umbrella and drones.

Also, Dracarys is used widely which probably makes retaking defense systems easier.
https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1837140007162720457?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1837144580975644949?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Looks good thus.

I’m not quite sure how it looks towards Snagost but since UA maintains numerical superiority over in Kharkiv, it’s not a crisis for UA so over time this will also go.
I hear nothing about lost settlements in the eastern or northern part of the Kursk bulge, rather the opposite, and there are over 20 RU brigades in the area in varying condition from wiped out to fresh Russian style.

I think we can ring the bell that the Russian counterattacks at Kursk have failed.
We can also state that the area behind the Sejm watercourse is on its way to being lost for RU.

So what does it mean for Putin – that his order for retaking on October 1st has completely failed.
Then it means that to HOLD the terrain he needs new brigades and if he wants to RETAKE the terrain he probably needs about 50 brigades to have a chance to succeed.
But they don’t exist without giving up the southern front completely.
So now Putin has a choice to make very soon here.

Likely that Ukraine continues otherwise – the fires on FIRMS further north are at Russian defense lines and a forest. It is paired with RUMORS that UA is moving further north.

And you know what else they are doing – they are moving at Kharkiv. I have long tried to describe that at Kharkiv UA now has numerical and qualitative superiority and since “quantity is a quality in itself” according to some in the thread, UA must win there.
RU has now mined all the dams in Belgorod to make a UA offensive impossible so at least the Russians are prepared for an offensive across the border.
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1836904224493641769

And more and more information that UA is starting to advance in the Vovchansk area.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3l4nskqjkmj2h

Down south of the Pokhrovsk bulge RU is desperately trying to even out the front line but it is going absolutely terribly and they probably lose a battalion (likely a weakened brigade) each time.
They understand that this is the hinge that will collapse the whole bulge when UA eventually gets going down there because it is one of two major access roads and when the mud comes, maintenance for the Pokrovsk Russians will be bad.

UA is also starting to get going down by the Dnieper if one is to believe Twitter rumors. This is the logical next step so high probability that it is true. What will happen is that the number of bridgeheads and raids will increase exponentially until we are in a situation where RU loses control over the Dnieper front.
https://x.com/mhmck/status/1836920164761166228?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Violent explosions.
Apparently RU has 6 larger arsenals/depots for ammunition in the Toropets area, of which the first near Toropets was completely written off after an operation.
The one in Krasnodar Krai. MXT do you remember we looked at it when we searched for refineries?
Now it is leveled with the ground 😲
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1837106397550391606?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

The number of arsenals is 24 in total in all of Russia but one can probably guess that those closer to Ukraine are full and those farthest away in Siberia quite empty.

This is apparently how it looked as Rikkitikkitavi guessed – ammunition everywhere outside the bunkers.
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1837360071191261379?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

The operation was apparently with a drone swarm of a few hundred and modified Neptune missiles.
https://x.com/tatatfender/status/1836905431609884985?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Last night two more arsenals exploded, one in the vicinity near Toropets and one down in Krasnodar Krai.
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3l4nqcantny2g

https://x.com/girkingirkin/status/1837332860992167967?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

So 2/6 north of Ukraine are knocked out and the first east of that.
RU has absolutely zero ability to do anything about this and the rest are just waiting to be knocked out.
We guessed they strike depots with high-value ammunition and that seems to be true – Iskander, NK and Iranian missiles and missiles for LV among others.

There are absolutely enormous amounts of ammunition destroyed and RU logistics will take a serious hit from this.
Ukraine has in turn taken out refineries, oil depots, and now ammunition depots in its strategic bombing campaign.

Frontline pre-bombardment continues and they take out frontline depots but these are depots and storages that supply the entire war and if they are taken out it will be empty after a few months.

I will stick my neck out and claim that US missiles are not really needed. Yes, they would shorten the war if we got an absolutely massive effort against air bases, oil depots, and ammunition depots, but that also comes with a political and diplomatic cost.
Since the US has been dithering until today, we are now at the point where Ukraine can handle this themselves.

Wait a while and their own version of ATACMS will rain down on the Russian air bases.

I suggest more F-16s and Air Force fighters that deny FAB bombers access to the fronts instead, actually.

It will be interesting to see if the US starts realizing that they are obsolete and then will do everything to maintain their relevance by taking the lead and being the worst 😀

Since WW2, we have had various “empires” which can be translated as countries that get authoritarian leaders who are allowed to stay, flourish, and then want “lebensraum” through ethnic cleansing or just manage to ethnically cleanse within their own country because they don’t quite make it or are a bit lazy.
Most recently, we have Putin, and we see the result of that in Ukraine with indescribable atrocities.
Previously, it was Mugabe in Zimbabwe, Rwanda, and Yugoslavia.
Overall, it always turns into a sexual sadistic murder orgy. In Yugoslavia, families were forced to rape and kill each other. A father had to choose between murdering/raping one of his children so the others could survive or else everyone would be shot – and so on. It was not uncommon for this to be filmed and sold on the black market.
During WW2, the two worst empires were Germany and Japan. We probably don’t need to go into detail about Germany, but Japan’s ravages in Asia were not far behind – exactly the same sexual violence we see in Ukraine and all imaginable ways to torture and murder civilians were also indulged in by the Japanese military.
Then we have the Soviet Union and their ravages against their own population, which is probably the worst. The KGB’s lice rooms were terrifying reading – a prisoner is locked in a very small pitch-black closet so they cannot move freely and stand slightly bent, absolutely full of bedbugs that bite the prisoner to death if they stay too long.
I think the red line here is that when an authoritarian leader is allowed to stay and the world yawns and falls asleep, then there will be runaway suffering for civilians at some point in the future.
So the obvious solution is a shot in the knees of authoritarian leaders before they reach their full potential, otherwise the suffering for third parties becomes enormous.
But so far the world has not managed to agree on this and only acts when it is obviously too late – when ethnic cleansing has started.

I noticed some criticism of me yesterday for criticizing Biden and the argument always becomes “the Republicans are worse” or “are you for Trump”.
As you may notice, I rarely mention Trump with a word except as criticism or mockery of him.

What the Biden gang in the thread is doing is relativizing Biden’s inactivity and lack of support for Ukraine because the Democrats should win the election since Trump is worse, but it is Biden who is in government right now and it is Ukraine we should support here – not Joe Biden or Kamala Harris.

Then it is highly speculative whether the Democrats will increase support if they win the election, but somewhat likely that the Republicans under Trump will reduce or maintain the current support (which is VERY insufficient) if they win.
The criticism against us who criticize Biden then has a hidden purpose which is less support for Ukraine and more election work for the Democrats 😀

Joe Biden and the Democrats have not been friends of Ukraine so far in the war and they have on their own significantly prolonged this war, which has led to endless tragedies for Ukraine.
We have irrefutable evidence of this since Zelensky has spoken out, and among the biggest betrayals of all was when the US forced Zelensky to release the VDV from Kherson – then the war could have been ended by knockout.
Sitting on a high horse and picking on everyone who presents this relevant criticism so much that the thread hardly dares is not much support for Ukraine.

By the way, I saw yesterday that someone wrote that there have been two assassination attempts on Kamala Harris that have not received much attention. I have on my list that Putin will try to kill Harris before the election if it looks bad for Trump – that far I believe he is willing to go.

This is starting to look extremely good almost everywhere and the pessimists and experts will soon again for the fifteenth time in this war have reason to recalibrate their promises, but still claim that the positives are unrealistic dreamers.

Last time, there were no stagnant fronts and WW1-style trenches at all and there was also a majestic offensive in 2024, and moreover in Russia, which was seen as impossible on the level of a natural law (someone even mentioned nuclear weapons…).

Ukraine is well on its way to winning this war by technical knockout. I have long said that Russia has already lost this but it requires that they understand it too and we are well on our way there now.

Give it about ten more arsenals pulverized, some fuel depots, Ukraine’s own ATACMS over the air bases, and continued offensive operations increasing in intensity and we are dangerously close to the beginning of the end.
The broad strokes will definitely be painted in 2024 as someone in the thread suggested 😀

Also good for my reputation with MXT that Ukraine has surrounded Glushkovo.

But do not despair because Russia has launched yet another wunderwaffe – heavily reinforced Pantsir everywhere except in the weapon tubes 🤣🤣
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1837074916589305907?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

This is how you raise a terrorist organization. Very strange discussion in Sweden where quite a few debaters who have portrayed themselves as humanitarians and therefore support Pale…stine have suddenly started to champion one of the world’s worst terrorist groups Hezb…ah. Their credibility took a huge hit.

Do you know who hates Hezb…ah the most – the citizens of Lebanon..
https://x.com/VividProwess/status/1837028598177239383

14:13 – MatsExtrude

👍 All maps are RUMINT until DeepstateMap updates and confirms the rumors but it looks like it might go well in Kursk, though I am also holding back from calling it yet.

Wonderful that they managed to hit hard again last night. Hope they have gotten production going and can continue to take out ammunition depots and other high-value targets. I wonder if Biden has forbidden them to strike refineries since that seems to have stopped. Probably doesn’t want high gasoline prices before the election.

Speaking of Biden, can one be critical of him and at the same time support the Democrats?

Wishing for a free P@lestine and for the war to end is understandable, but if you cannot distance yourself from Hez****a and H@mas and demand that the latter release hostages, you are very much off track. Then you do not want a peaceful solution.