12:21 – Johan No.1
The lions
https://x.com/inukrofficial/status/1841738455501418989?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
I see the thread a bit as a microcosm of how the discussion broadly goes in different constellations around the UA war, probably we are more pro-UA than most, except Denmark.
Check what Denmark sent in September by the way 😲
https://x.com/jeff21461/status/1841501957141225825?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
How does the thread think the US president’s strategy with “escalation management” is going right now?
Everything that happens is constantly a consequence of previous actions. October 7 did not arise out of a vacuum on a sunny Monday morning.
We now know that RU and China were behind October 7, I..el finds Russian weapons with Hezbo…ah and Iran is a veritable traveling merchant of death – what do our leaders think the consequence will be of not setting boundaries in the long run?
Do you remember the video from October 7 when they ran towards the border wall and there was a lot of Russian chatter on the video?
Now it might possibly be FSB in Lebanon?
https://x.com/fella_ia_x25/status/1842069841835921412?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Wagner in Africa, which has been fought against in Mali, we posted about yesterday.
We are heading towards a full interstate war in MENA, I remember when we sat and watched the Yom Kippur War in black and white and maybe today wish we had been less interested in partying and Pripps than we should have been in world politics – we are almost there again and now we follow the downward spiral in real time with a knot in the stomach 😐
This will not calm down because it is an escalation ladder that Russia is following and the end-game is not peace on earth at all – such a strategy cannot be met with low-affect response, period.
And the longer you wait, the stronger the counterreaction must be.
Do you know what Biden has done – he has loosened Iran’s stranglehold a bit here and there in recent years.
https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-is-joe-biden-weakening-iran-sanctions/a-68992276
I..el, on the other hand, has managed to free two of Nasrallah’s successors in a week, this is almost black magic now 😲
https://x.com/drelidavid/status/1841962305879175507?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/drelidavid/status/1841962305879175507?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
No one needs to come dragging with a video of a small dinghy with a big engine in the case of Cordelia Moon because it basically looks like below in the Red Sea, but yes, this is what that one looked like.
https://x.com/warfareanalysis/status/1841885488652701798?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Houthi man coastal missile batteries or drone platforms sent from Russia or Iran. Iranian surface combat ships send target data to these batteries which fire on all ships they reach in the Red Sea, civilian as well as military and from the entire West.
Now you saw a huge blast on a larger civilian British ship.
Previously, Houthi has SUNK ships in the Red Sea and I also believe a hit on a surface combat ship because there have been sudden movements on one or a few occasions.
How has the West responded to Iran and Russia attacking 103 ships, civilian as well as military, in the Red Sea through Houthi?
Do you even read in the newspapers that 103 ships have been attacked by Houthi in the Red Sea?
What does the Red Sea mean for world trade?
Directly from the horse’s mouth day 2 – Zelensky believes the West is dithering and not deciding on, among other things, long-range weapons and permits.
I find it hard to see how there can be criticism in the thread if you say the same thing as Zelensky. I myself think that everyone who gets upset about that is not on Ukraine’s side but that is my personal opinion.
And then – “we don’t have the whole picture, something has been promised in the meetings” and that “Joe Biden is doing right, he has all the intel”.
Or, “I have insight into the USA and it’s not like that at all”, or “I have been in politics and it doesn’t work like that at all”
No, all these explanatory models were wrong 😀 – read what Zelensky says instead, so that’s how it was and we have tried to highlight it since the meeting in the USA because it was crystal clear.
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1841837853359140980?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The USA is still holding back, it is not for Ukraine’s best – so why should we then think Joe Biden is a good guy who deserves a pat on the back when he in fact prolongs the war so more children die.
What we should discuss, however, is the motivation which we may have figured out already without knowing it but there is a bit of circular reasoning right now that is driving me crazy.
By the way, Matthew Miller lied or they just forgot to inform Zelensky of their decision – what do you think?
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3l5lsr6on232h
This is thus the direct consequence of no urgency from the West 😐
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3l5oegj4kxi2f
Or this, a huge blast in Kursk – others I see now so probably RU has gotten something heavier going that they are starting to use. Good luck surviving there.
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1841604885571371153?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
It seems that this will now be addressed at the Rammstein meeting on October 12 and we then DEEPLY hope it will be resolved – if not, it IS a critical situation.
The only thing we need to keep an eye on is when Storm Shadow streaks into targets inside Russia – then it’s unlocked, not in a tsunami of statements.
It is extremely rare to get such detailed information about these things, mostly it is “anonymous source at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said” so we should be grateful that we know how the USA acts on the matter.
Yes, we let Europe get off a bit cheaply because right now Starmer, Macron and Meloni are dragging the decision out even though the EU has voted for missiles into Russia and many smaller countries support the decision.
Then there is the materiel – Ukraine themselves have been clear that most of their offensive reserve is without materiel.
I have made a huge mistake in this war – I have consistently thought well of the West and that positive things are happening in secret. Unfortunately, I never learn and naturally thought Zelensky was bluffing about the offensive reserve – a clever trick 😭
Northern Luhansk has been painted a bit as a possibility by someone in the thread and UA managed to move towards Novoiehorivka so apparently low priority by RU now.
What lies east of that 😁
8 RU brigades in the Sejm area…
I just remembered that several retired USA F-16 pilots have come forward and said they are ready to fly combat missions in Ukraine.
So there is no shortage of pilots.
Ukraine started asking the West for permission to combat FAB bombers about a year ago, maybe a bit less.
Then we sat in the thread watching all the targets between the refineries and Ukraine, and afterwards Zelensky saw our world-leading digging and made his own list of targets which was a copy of the thread’s and called it his own – plagiarism is a crime.
Even though the list is quite new, the request that has been dragged out for an unusually long time is not new at all.
Denmark has stated that they would have gladly sent F-16s already in 2022, so there is no shortage of planes either.
Since this is critical for Ukraine, you can be sure that as soon as this is unlocked by the USA, the missile rain will come.
Provided it’s not a trick and they don’t send the missiles, but that would be a bit too diabolical even for the West.
My analysis is roughly like this as is well known even if some want to focus on the negative coming from the West and shoot the messenger –
-Ukraine can win this war by knockout if they are not held back.
Yesterday oil depots exploded again, Perm and Voronezh
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3l5ogjzohvd2z
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3l5ogkz2rot2b
And the Russian economy is in decline.
https://x.com/officejjsmart/status/1841888761962987857?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Personnel shortage in the Russian armaments industry
https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1841749048186855477?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Ukraine can build more than 20 155mm artillery pieces per month – take that!!
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1841901632314835454?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
CB90 units are deployed
https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1841800896952349091?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Mark Rutte took the first available train to Ukraine
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1841793851314294881?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Remember 2023 when we fantasized about drone swarms, now they are here.
https://x.com/pstyle0ne1/status/1841581293663928583?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Poland is trying to oppose the USA as best they can
https://x.com/ukrreview/status/1841502071377240242?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
The only one who needs negotiation and ceasefire is Putin.
Ukraine has been given an ultimatum – choose war and you will see what we in the West do or choose negotiation and peace and you get NATO membership and EU membership.
This is completely the wrong strategy and the Chamberlain of our time – Ukraine needs a knockout victory and whatever happens to Russia happens.
If we are a bit risk-averse, we use EU membership to motivate Ukraine not to go for a full revolution in Russia even though I personally think a smaller Russia is a better Russia but one should not play God.
International law should of course also be followed in the case of Russia.
On October 12 we get a first indication and after November 7 and until Christmas we will know how this goes.
My hope is that negotiations and ceasefire go in the trash as soon as possible and the handlebar Mark Rutte does not seem to have been a completely wrong recruitment for the role even if Biden and Scholz thought it was smart with him instead of Kaja Kallas 🤣
As said, the big brushstrokes are painted in 2024 as we usually write.
12:51 – Johan No.1
What happened to the Friday drinking sessions in the thread?
If it’s fashionable to drink less, you forgot to tell me, I’m just absent because I never find the computer or the keyboard locks up and then you pass out over the office chair and wake up at 2 like a desert with a sore lower back.
13:09 – Johan No.1
I have long thought that society discriminates heavily against heavily intoxicated people. Everything else is on the table and you should even identify as a cat.
Why do I get piercing looks from the boss when I come in dead drunk to the breakfast meeting when it is not explicitly stated in the code of conduct that employees are not allowed to come in dead drunk to breakfast meetings?
The only way to campaign for this injustice is to challenge the system and make the world truly equal for everyone ✊
13:16 – Johan No.1
Hot situation in northern Luhansk –
At Kryulakhivka there is some kind of industry that is now becoming contested according to Deepstate.
If RU gains a foothold there it’s game over in that area and northern Luhansk is cut into two parts.
13:25 – Johan No.1
The FSB video was apparently from 2016 – a common mistake when a source is classified as okay is that you bite when they post psyops.
But it doesn’t change anything in essence, just that RU has worked with them much longer.
13:44 – Johan No.1
The Russians are training anti-drone defense
https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1841872305187602442?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
13:56 – Johan No.1
RU is paying Moldovans to vote no to the EU.
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1841843143412441364?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
14:51 – Johan No.1
Yes, he was born a few years before me. The Cold War was not fun and he struggled with a “Stasi” label for a while?
Haven’t read the book but liked the review and especially this “is known for his refusal to swim with the current”.
It goes straight to the top of the list because it looks exciting, if anyone really knew the situation it should have been him I think?
Besides, he comes from the “left” (sorry) so can’t be dismissed so easily.
Available for 79 SEK on Bokus, my wife is getting it for Christmas, so that dilemma is solved 👍
15:29 – Johan No.1
Just because you don’t read about Chat control in the media doesn’t mean the vote on the matter isn’t moving forward
https://x.com/emanuelkarlsten/status/1842115935592653017?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
15:33 – Johan No.1
Lukashenko promises to help UA rebuild the country after the war
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1842185947871588382?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
15:48 – Johan No.1
M/45 in Ukraine
https://x.com/trip_to_valkiri/status/1841902359628415013?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
16:20 – Johan No.1
Best of the day 😀
https://x.com/kremlintrolls/status/1842201281038889407?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
16:45 – Johan No.1
Someone needs to have a talk with Alex Voronov, he’s bringing down the mood 😳
https://bsky.app/profile/alexvoronov.bsky.social/post/3l5oedy5pfm25
17:08 – Johan No.1
Forbes doesn’t give up 😬
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1842216973117120568?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
17:11 – Johan No.1
BREAKING the rumor we discussed was true that the North Koreans arrived 😁
https://x.com/glasnostgone/status/1842217619518029991?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
17:43 – Johan No.1
Look what Mark Rutte is holding up, is this legit?
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1841890405408747788?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
18:00 – Johan No.1
For the occasion today, I have identified myself as a beer.
The guy who added -S- in fast food is supposedly the marketer of the millennium and everything else has been normalized – I don’t know when people stopped shaming what they eat and how they look but it should be the same with alcohol if there is to be equal treatment.
You have to be accepted as you are even in an intoxicated state, simply – everything else is unreasonable.
If intoxication could also be included in HMF, that would be perfect so you can threaten with prosecution.
You just have to dare
https://x.com/interneth0f/status/1841961460760461712?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And now you know who wins in a fight between a hippopotamus and a rhinoceros
https://x.com/amazlngnature/status/1841875146849595640?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
18:02 – Johan No.1
For the occasion, I have identified myself as a beer.
The one who added the -S- in fast food is supposedly the marketer of the millennium, and everything else has been normalized – I don’t know when people stopped shaming others for what they eat and how they look, but it should be the same with alcohol if there is to be equal treatment.
You have to be accepted as you are even in an intoxicated state, simply – everything else is unreasonable.
If intoxication could also be included in HMF, that would be perfect so you can threaten with prosecution.
You just have to dare
https://x.com/interneth0f/status/1841961460760461712?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
And now you know who wins in a fight between a hippopotamus and a rhinoceros
https://x.com/amazlngnature/status/1841875146849595640?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
19:35 – MatsExtrude
Monkey, dog, and now beer, you have many personalities! 😄
19:46 – Johan No.1
The dog was/is there and I don’t know if I’ve identified as a monkey but sure, today I am a beer 👍
19:58 – Johan No.1
If you want a stealth bomber homie mustache, just follow the video.
Mine didn’t turn out very well 😐
https://x.com/ofathenry/status/1842016214329262494?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
21:39 – Johan No.1
Sad news even if you identify as a beer 😐
I expressed concern about a week ago but this is budweiser-bad
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1842276453229957303?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
06:59 – MatsExtrude
I personally go one step further and shape not only my facial hair but my whole body after my favorite aircraft!
07:00 – MatsExtrude
By the way, it’s the SAAB 29 if anyone is wondering.
07:02 – MatsExtrude
Maybe it’s just as well you don’t remember the incidents with the monkey…
Or rather the monkeys.
08:14 – MatsExtrude
Maybe someone who knows their airplanes will show up and think that was funny.
09:27 – Johan No.1
😲
10:23 – Johan No.1
That Ukraine can build more than 20 wheeled howitzers per month is completely crazy.
In Sweden, it’s probably single-digit Archers per year?
North Korea probably has obscene stockpiles just like Russia?
But then the country has been militarized and in a war economy forever because of the fictional conflict with South Korea, so it probably has a substantial arms industry as well.
In between, they set up five hundred rocket artillery and fire a salvo straight out into the sea, play nice music to it, and broadcast it on TV.
10:33 – MatsExtrude
Yes, give Ukraine even more anti-aircraft weapons and a lot of money and they will surely solve it best themselves!
We don’t really have a clear picture of North Korea. Even if the population is enslaved, the elite probably want to live well; the question is whether they have really invested heavily in all defense or if it has mostly been in things they want to showcase for propaganda purposes.
By now, they should realize that no one has any interest in invading them.
If, however, they have a long-term plan to, for example, take South Korea, they might already be investing everything in the weapons industry.
10:32 – Johan No.1
Anders S – so your message that the port strike in the USA was called off was saved by the gong there.
I have the impression that there is some kind of practice in the USA that months before the election no election-influencing actions are carried out, and a port strike along the entire east coast would have been indisputably advantageous for Trump whether it was Putin’s doing or not.