12:39 – Johan No.1
The conquered area in Kursk is probably already down to 50% of what it was at its largest, I thought Noel dismissed some of the disputed areas in a post in the previous thread.
In the eastern part, RU is on its way to take the terrain up to Psel and once they have done that, they have quite comfortably drone-range to the supply routes into Sudzha.
Which Ukraine had when they controlled the road from Korenovo into the area behind Sejm.
RU claims they have retaken Plekhovo but that is highly unconfirmed.
The town of Sudzha is on a height and to the east is the watercourse Reka Sudzha.
The threat is probably from the west but UA is defending behind the Lokhnya watercourse.
This area is geographically maybe 20% of what they had conquered at most, with exposed supply routes, no direct defense built and FAB-alley but it looks like it could be held over time with a little goodwill.
12:50 – Johan No.1
Good thing Zelensky just gave a speech where he outed the victory plan so my above post is not perceived as defeatism.
Consider here that Finland’s foreign minister just revealed that the West is starting to find it tough with all the torture-murdered children and wants a ceasefire.
And compare that with what Zelensky says. Zelensky has the support of Finland and Poland, who have black belts in understanding Russia.
The important words are of course “that we get the support we need.”
Zelensky laid out the Victory Plan in front of Parliament, hitting hard on these key points:
⚫️ Ukraine and its partners must change the game. Russia doesn’t want peace, only war. We have to end this conflict on our terms – not Putin’s;
⚫️ Two years ago, Ukraine offered a peace formula and held successful summits, but Russia keeps dodging diplomacy and throwing out ultimatums;
⚫️ Our soldiers are making sure that Russia’s ultimatums mean nothing;
⚫️ The Victory Plan is designed to bridge to a second Peace Summit, aiming to end this war once and for all;
⚫️ If we get the support we need, this war could be over by next year;
⚫️ If we don’t act now, Putin will only grow stronger and push diplomacy off the table forever;
⚫️ This isn’t about freezing the conflict or compromising sovereignty – Russia must be forced to come to the table on our terms.
Time to finish this.
https://x.com/banderafella/status/1846485746967855244?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
12:52 – Johan No.1
Listen especially to what Zelensky says here
”If we don’t act now, Putin will only grow stronger and push diplomacy off the table forever;”
And then think very carefully about those in the debate and thread who say that Russia is on the verge of collapse.
Zelensky does not agree and I agree with Zelensky.
13:07 – Johan No.1
Has he completely missed that they become a unit that is supposed to function as infantry with their own personal weapon from their home country and be consumed in an attack?
Why is “different command systems” a limiting factor or that “the Russians can’t speak Korean”? It’s enough to have one RU communications officer and one NK per brigade who speak English to relay orders.
The NK engineers have probably been on site for a long time, this is infantry being trained and why train near Mariupol if they are supposed to be border guards?
14:15 – Johan No.1
An extremely good plan – help us win and we are with you and we are a rich country.
Everything is completely reasonable but yes, it requires the West to wholeheartedly stand on Ukraine’s side and do so very quickly.
Now Zelensky has revealed that the West is at least hinting at negotiations
”We hear the word “negotiations” from our partners, while the word “justice” is less frequent. Ukraine is open to diplomacy, but to honest diplomacy. That is why we have the Peace Formula. It guarantees negotiations without forcing Ukraine into injustice. Ukrainians deserve a just peace.”
14:28 – Johan No.1
Yes, I actually did, then I have described the medical report of the Latvian freedom fighter who was arrested sometime in the 50s where they poked out his eyes with wire and “ripped out his testicles.”
Or that five-year-old girl who in front of her mother was first gang-raped, then tortured and finally murdered.
When they released the mother she tried to take her own life and the soldiers stood and laughed at her.
Just a few stories in ONE SEA of enormous abuses and an orgy of killing that alone should have made the West give Ukraine everything they point to.
If not out of care for Ukraine then at least out of self-preservation.
14:31 – Johan No.1
Isn’t this a classic old trick that dictators always use?
Yes, we will invade your neighbor but we promise to leave you alone – promise.
But if you interfere, your country will be destroyed.
Then it suddenly becomes a question of whether to risk full war or gamble that the dictator is fair.
Remaining passive is a very attractive choice.
But it also has an expiration date
14:42 – Johan No.1
Could it be north of Starytsia in Kharkiv that Ukraine has retaken the entire forest area?
That is suggested higher up in the thread and there are no other direct candidates.
Then they have in that case retaken +20% of the terrain RU conquered when they moved towards Kharkiv ✊✊💥
14:46 – Johan No.1
North Korea says that South Korea’s violent drones that dropped deadly leaflets over North Korea have taken the situation to the brink of war.
North Korean citizens are overjoyed and 1.4 million have already signed up for the armed forces.
End of message
P.S. North Korea is ready at any moment to level South Korea to the ground and turn it into a parking lot.
15:27 – Johan No.1
Without jumping into the discussion at all, I just have to remind that Biden has stopped France, the UK and Italy from letting Ukraine use their (self-manufactured) Storm Shadow against targets in Russia.
Starmer, Macron and Meloni all stated that Ukraine had that permission.
And then the US has communicated this as clearly as possible in writing so we have irrefutable evidence of the decision they made against the three nations UK, Italy and France.
Then the EU Parliament tried to unlock the whole situation, and the EU has unanimously voted for their countries to give permission for Ukraine to shoot their missiles at targets in Russia.
But then it was up to individual countries to make those decisions, which they have not done yet.
The USA stopped it by owning the mapping service the missiles use, so Storm Shadow cannot navigate – has been posted in the thread.
This decision made by the USA actually only benefits Putin, so I don’t understand the reasoning that if you criticize Biden, you are doing Putin’s bidding. Because it is Biden who reasonably has full responsibility here as president?
To me, it really looks like it is Biden’s decision that benefits Putin, or am I completely wrong?
16:21 – MatsExtrude
Yes, the plan is good but of course it is not at all certain that it will help.
It probably depends a lot on what the USA will do. If they throw Ukraine under the bus, I’m afraid the other countries will also choose to throw in the towel (while at the same time arming themselves as much as possible). Then one can hope that, for example, Poland gets fed up and chooses to step in instead of waiting to be attacked.
We’ll see where it ends.
16:43 – MatsExtrude
I have already explained how it hangs together once. If you think Trump7GOP will handle Ukraine better than Harris and the Democrats, it is obviously good to pour on criticism of Biden. But if you think Putin benefits most from Trump winning, then you facilitate that by criticizing Biden.
Not that I think it makes much difference what we write (I suspect very few who read here vote in the election) but the criticism could easily make those who support Ukraine think that maybe it’s better to vote for Trump.
Incumbent governments usually have a harder time, people are dissatisfied and vote out of dissatisfaction hoping something better will come.
16:58 – MatsExtrude
😄
North Korea claims themselves that their armed forces already consist of over 7 million soldiers, those newly added 1.4 million must be old folks and small children.
17:16 – Johan No.1
South Korea was smart and has come up with a red line
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social/post/3l6n5u6z2cx2i
17:26 – Johan No.1
No, absolutely not –
IF Trump wins the election then HE is responsible and then we criticize him for HIS actions.
Now it is Biden who is responsible and should be held accountable for his actions – it is NOT Trump who stopped Storm Shadow.
What you have cooked up is some kind of mess to give Biden a free pass. I don’t quite understand the reasoning for that because the result is that Ukraine is on its knees.
So if I am to stoop to the same dishonest level –
Everyone who wants to stop criticism of Biden is doing Putin’s bidding because Biden’s decisions only benefit Putin.
So you are NOT Ukraine supporters but just want to win an election in the USA.
That works too, will be my standard argument going forward 👍😀
17:39 – Johan No.1
How does the thread interpret this statement from Scholz?
The victory plan is – give us weapons, invade Russia, bomb everything, negotiate.
Why does Scholz go straight to the last step?
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1846565023730004343?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
20:07 – MatsExtrude
Go ahead, that will be good. 👍
20:31 – Johan No.1
Did you see this in the weapons package from the USA 😳
Working on a post tomorrow about how exactly that was needed
Then the USA has now listened
hundreds of armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, and thousands of additional armored vehicles,” the White House said.
12:20 – Johan No.1
Mannerheim’s speech to the Swedish volunteer units in 1940
https://x.com/edward_norden_/status/1845328220679291174?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
If you go through the locations where fighting is taking place, it is along the entire front from Kursk to the Dnepr – everything is illuminated. Air bombing with FAB is also a long list to go through, and it is just under 1000 per week being dropped. Overall, Ukraine is under enormous pressure, and Zelensky himself says so in his evening speeches.
If we ignore Rob Lee, Defmon, and that manic-depressive gang, or God forbid Röpcke, for example, Tatarigami is starting to become a bit resigned now, and unfortunately, he also has his ear to the ground.
https://x.com/tatarigami_ua/status/1846332987283030181?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
But here you have a somewhat positive picture of the situation at least.
https://x.com/mylovanov/status/1846202315524526169?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
A delaying battle is to buy time, and that definition of what is going on has been promoted and accepted by most?
To facilitate a retreat for others, to finish building fortifications further back, to get reinforcements in time, to have time to reach a favorable political decision before giving up anything.
That is why it is so important to identify a clear goal for Ukraine’s delaying battle right now – they are not receiving materiel to the extent they need, they have no (equipped) strategic reserves, and they refuse to accept a ceasefire because then Russia wins since they have already given up areas. For us, a ceasefire also means that the emerging global conflict is not stamped out, in my and many others’ opinion.
This idea that they are retreating until the country Russia collapses – the West is doing everything precisely so that Russia does NOT collapse – it has been stated so many times that it must be empirically proven?
A delaying battle can hardly be a goal in itself. However, it can be a consequence of the situation at large.
The EU still buys the Russians’ dirty oil and pays in forex – the shadow fleet is allowed to dock in our ports even though the UK imposed sanctions on 25 of the ships in the 600-ship shadow fleet, a really violent right hook by Kier Starmer.
North Korea, Africa, and Asia supply Russia with soldiers, and North Korea, Iran, and China with everything else they need for their arms industry. Or the West does too via everywhere they export to, which then forwards everything to Russia.
Increased German exports to Georgia
https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1845201552719401084?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Exactly everyone expects Russia to hit with a huge missile strike before the election just to mess with Biden. The signs point to that as missile carriers have been moved forward to Belarus (which is not an escalation, it must be clarified – it is a de-escalation since the plan now is fewer in Russia) and they have completed TU95 and TU22M.
Russia fires 2-4 missiles at intervals of a couple of days that are rarely shot down and where targets are not communicated. We can then assume that they are high-value targets. The Russian side communicates all sorts of things, but prioritized targets are probably energy supply, Patriot, F-16, foreign soldiers, ammunition depots, and the arms industry. We know from the pizza bombing with foreign journalists that Russia has intelligence gathering and can hit right in the middle when they want with their missiles.
That they would locate a lot of production in Ukraine surprises me every time – the best would be to locate it 100m from the border inside Poland but still a UA entity. Unless the industry has already accounted for a ceasefire, of course.
Future threats to Sweden beyond the drone weapon – good intelligence gathering for Russia in real-time night vision/IR, an uncomfortably short kill-chain, and missiles that are difficult to shoot down with existing air defense. We have always regrouped, but you can’t regroup everything every five minutes.
Solution to the problem – have countermeasures against missile carriers because somewhere they are launched from and the carriers are the limiting factor. So what Ukraine is not allowed to do in this war, so best to acquire that capability without American components.
Since I..el now got a THAAD system manned with personnel from the USA, the USA also clarified so it could not be misunderstood that Ukraine would NOT get THAAD. Just so Putin would not get worried that it might be on its way to Ukraine as well. It is important to keep it predictable and clear, otherwise it can be difficult for Putin to steer.
Here you have a decisive president, Teddy Roosevelt. Good for everyone except Mexico and Spain.
https://x.com/timecaptales/status/1844931078986895397?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
At the beginning of the war, we wrote a couple of times that the biggest threat to Ukraine was the weathercocks and turncoats in the West, that support overnight could be switched to nothing and that the risk would increase over time. It was mocking and maybe out of frustration over the 5000 steel helmets or something, but even there it seems to be right – we apparently know our politicians.
We now seem to have reached the point where Western leaders are simply totally exhausted from hearing about all the tortured and murdered Ukrainian children, and according to Finland’s foreign minister, some behind closed curtains are energetically discussing how to achieve a ceasefire. Finland’s foreign minister is a credible source, and it fits with Zelensky in the last month going out in the media and saying that Ukraine cannot accept a ceasefire – I choose to believe this has substance.
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1846135445412868293?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Here you have the charlatan currently challenging the West and getting away with it, Frog Ball.
https://x.com/uawarroom/status/1845981674053472272?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Instead of resourcing the 14 brigades that are standing there waiting without weapons, the USA has come up with the idea that everything will be solved if Ukraine just starts mobilizing younger soldiers. The audacity 😡
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1846190491370500134?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
On some level, I probably expected our leaders to do what was required when it really mattered in times of crisis, but obviously, that was attributing them qualities they did not have. After all, we are in a situation where a non-decision today leads to decisions about which of our sons shall die tomorrow, which one might think would be attractive to avoid.
Something I also find interesting is that at the start of the war, the USA understood what would happen while Macron and Scholz let themselves be fooled by Putin to convince Zelensky not to mobilize (something they have not been held accountable for), and the USA decided to put some pressure on Putin.
Biden felt it might look bad for him if he visited Putin himself and the war still started – so he sent Kamala Harris. This says something about Biden’s motives for not wanting escalation and the nuclear threat – he simply cares about his legacy.
Since Putin is a hyena, he probably interpreted it as a weakness that a woman came instead or something?
https://x.com/secretsqrl123/status/1846206824749412658?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Today it’s a bit about North Koreans because that was what I was supposed to write about before I started writing about other things – the first question is how the non-escalation is going?
As you know, I belong to the group that believes there is no point in not trying to escalate because that is what Russia et al. will do anyway if allowed by the West not escalating. An attempt not to escalate thus leads to more escalation, strange as it may sound. You are forgiven if it wasn’t entirely clear because not even Biden or Scholz have understood this yet – they believe in negotiations, that’s how far behind they are 🤣
There are starting to be some warning flags around the North Koreans (NK). When RU visited North Korea, we guessed right away that soldiers would come because that was what Putin also needed help with. He wants to keep the war away from Moscow Russia as long as practically possible and elaborates on that below. We thought then that he cashed up in gold but since then there have been lots of reports about all sorts of things NK has received in exchange, everything from goats to technology. Putin got child soldiers from Kim anyway.
First, it was crews for the missile platforms and then some NK officers who died in a drone attack in Luhansk or Donetsk. Then there were 3,000 NK being trained at a base near Mariupol and finally 18 NK who fled from border guards up in Bryansk or Kursk.
The observant could see that this was four geographically separate locations from the far south to the far north.
I see this a bit like cockroaches – you see one and there are a hundred North Koreans in your wall staring at you.
If I may guess, and you may, I think there are groups of 3,000 North Koreans with their own personal weapons at a number of bases around Russia – you know those bases that Ukraine still isn’t allowed to strike.
They train them at brigade size and they will be subordinated to experienced RU brigades as a rifle unit and expendable.
You can probably guess the use and “high knees” will get a whole new meaning but it’s an addition of quite a few brigades. Some “anonymous source at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs” suggests 10,000 but if you try to look at Putin’s needs I think he has placed an order for +30,000, however many that could be at the upper limit, no point guessing.
https://x.com/kyivindependent/status/1846208502676488625?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Here the Russians could experiment with brigade attacks across fields in a completely new way, for example. And then the Russian brigade attacks through the fallen North Koreans.
Probably there are also North Korean SOF and reconnaissance units in the background.
And if the North Koreans come, Chinese SOF are not far behind – they also need to test their capability in a war and this is a good opportunity now that they can get NK passports for example as it is unlocked without consequences.
Consider here that the North Koreans are already in Ukraine so there is no coming with any red line afterwards from the West – it’s already done so what are they going to say?
When South Korea warned, they should have drawn a red line they intended to keep but they didn’t.
You know what else should come pretty soon – a “North Korean” (Chinese!) defense against the long-range drones.
Every high-value target gets a number of “anti-drone drones” that they can launch against the slow drones that carpet bomb high-value targets a few at a time.
(Just like the “North Korean” artillery ammunition, that is…)
This is what happens when nothing ever has any consequences in an eternal belief in de-escalation and low-intensity response.
The only good thing here is that the NK soldiers undergo training because then Kim has not sent the best he has besides SOF.
One can start to think a bit about how the Chinese SOF company in Belarus fits into this.
Below I wrote yesterday but I plagiarize myself (again) because I think it’s important to highlight when everyone wants to talk about the Russians having an acute manpower shortage. Yes, it’s extremely cynical but it works – do you know who did exactly the same in WW2 – the Germans and Moscow Russians.
Then we have the worst of all – the Russians are militarizing all Ukrainian children/teenagers in conquered areas and those who have been kidnapped – the purpose is to have soldiers for a few years of warfare from them in a year or two. They themselves state 700,000 children and teenagers.
“Russia is a colonial power and runs this war with – prisoners, unwanted nationalities in partial republics, soldiers from Africa, soldiers from Asia and now also North Koreans whom Putin has paid for in gold bars or possibly something else of equal value for Kim Yong Un. There are also Chinese in Ukraine.
At the start of the war, they let the DPR and LPR units take the biggest losses but they probably ran out of candidates there and those left are getting quite good at fighting so they are careful with them – they are valuable units.
The better units recruit “Moscow Russians” – spetsnaz, reconnaissance, VDV, SOF, marine infantry and prioritized MRR or TB, and they have higher status.
Those popularly called the “meat wall” are the ones they constantly sacrifice and are the first mentioned category.
And then when it’s really needed they take from the elite as now up in Kursk.
Extremely cynical but it means the impact on those who “count” is less than it would otherwise have been.
Wagner did the same and sent forward the unwanted children to identify the defense and then struck with fine Wagner when they thought they could achieve something with reasonable losses.”
I just remembered those 3-4 sabotages against the Paris trains that happened simultaneously during the French Olympics last summer. They were probably on the list maybe but quite targeted specifically against France and when they wanted to get positive publicity as revenge for Macron daring to go hard against Putin a few months earlier.
I hope and believe that everyone understands that if the West (USA and EU) makes the necessary decisions this war will probably be over in a year or faster. It is thus in the absence of decisions that we are now heading towards the bright future we see from the front row and at some point it will be too late. I am of the opinion that we are either there very soon or have already reached it.
Does anyone still believe the promises that the West will help Ukraine to the 1991 borders?
We have had many color revolutions and in Russia it is decided to be green but it will never come because the West does not want Russia to turn inward.
The West can also send as much materiel as they want – right now there are orders for hundreds of Leo2A8s in Europe, some of which have been ordered by Putin-friendly countries (the naivety 😲) and Ukraine should have received them all.
The stockpiles are packed with materiel and yesterday someone mentioned that South Korea has millions of shells in calibers that have been phased out of the organization.
The US also has 4.5 million DIPCM 155mm cluster shells they could send, which were to be destroyed and are just one decision from Biden away.
That the West is war-weary when they could resource Ukraine so they win with the existing materiel we have in the warehouses is a mystery to me, but we have the leaders we deserve.
A clear signal about an actual outcome in this war will come from the joint statement from Biden and Scholz on Friday or Saturday. It may not be entirely brilliant that the West’s hope in this somewhat dark time rests on these two bunglers, but that’s actually how it is. Biden has managed to block Storm Shadow because the US holds the software for the guidance systems the missiles need 😭