2024-11-02 -

09:02

Good of Pentagon to leak this so Putin knows he only needs to hold it for 6-12 months to win the war 👍

https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1852397594070094283?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

09:51

This one is interesting from a larger depot, Covert Cabal has given us the ability to directly anticipate how much remains in the stocks – excellent.

https://youtu.be/mUzuAMp73I4?si=nDOkiphmC9P0Qonh

09:59

I have come to a conclusion and that is that everything is always relative. It took a while to get there but now I have managed to formulate it clearly enough for myself after it became clear that especially the USA sought to maintain a balance, some kind of equilibrium that they themselves now apparently are starting to get exhausted by.

Extremely simplified – if Russia has 50 soldiers left and Ukraine only five, it doesn’t matter that Russia only has 50 soldiers left because that is 10 times more than Ukraine has available.

Today, if Ukraine were showered with materiel, FAB bombers were taken out and Storm Shadow rained over targets deep in Russia, Putin would be standing and crying loudly at the UN begging to keep Moscow when the armored brigades passed Bryansk.

Then I have to remind that Ukraine’s economy crashed completely but we have supported them, so why can’t China and BRIICS do the same with Russia?

That Russia turns inward (crashes) I want, but the West, especially the USA, has been very clear that this is not desirable, so the probability of it happening goes down, I think?

10:15

The question we should ask ourselves is – for what purpose has this been leaked?

I can think of two –
-put pressure on decision makers.
-clear the way for negotiations.

I can’t read Surtrutn’s link to the full article so can’t put it in context but the points from Maks are both bitter and sweet, especially that if UA gets materiel they can conduct an offensive in 2025.

Previous assassination contracts from the Economist and Financial Times have been very negative and they have NOT been caught with pro-Russian propaganda.

Then Bloomberg has published an article that RU is taking more and more land.

Then I can probably think that the article leaks a lot that shouldn’t be open – UA’s precarious situation and their offensive plans (again…).

The article appears initiated.

NYT has however previously been caught with pro-Russian propaganda so not entirely reliable as a source.

The overall picture I get is that sources we perceive as Western-friendly write more and more UA negative articles and there may be some risk that the purpose is not what we want it to be – unreserved support for Ukraine.

11:09

🤣🤣 keeping an eye on how Melania votes – no trust at all.

https://x.com/essenviews/status/1852181706624618549?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

11:26

Chinese soldier in Russian uniform 😳

https://x.com/banderafella/status/1789728988308340754?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

11:47

I want to tip about this anti-drone rifle again.
https://x.com/clashreport/status/1852243496037495001?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Will develop into better sights and drum magazines as a group weapon to shoot down drones. Away with EV weapons you never know if they work or shots that can miss. Surely there will be fewer and fewer drones and more ammunition in the weapon.

The group must also have good IR aiming devices (until drones become stealth…) and “drone warnings” which are probably starting to appear.
Then at company level, they have the somewhat larger interceptor drones against the condors.

The countermeasure then becomes fewer and fewer attack drones that come in a cloud but right now this group weapon is perfect.
Game on Russian bastards (yes the weapon was Russian but FMV reads this and starts sketching their own) ✊

The North Koreans are treated a bit like celebrities and get the latest materiel.
https://x.com/jayinkyiv/status/1852624959140483460?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

I have written about this for a long time – that all prisoners, male and female, are constantly subjected to sexual abuse. Long before it started being discussed actually for the simple reason that RU has always done this – history repeats itself and the probability was 1.
The stigma is probably a bit worse for a Ukrainian man to have to admit that he was raped five hundred times in captivity but the trauma is the same for all genders (whatever one identifies as!) and if you are to go by the discussions in Sweden – irreparable.
I wouldn’t be surprised if there will be a wave of suicides among liberated prisoners of war in the future, I remember the policewoman who came back after two years and the before-after picture where she was an empty shell upon return.
https://x.com/rshereme/status/1851852284684034558?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

This is what the West chooses to watch with a fairly large portion of passivity, an active choice. A rather strange active choice since we are next in line if Ukraine throws in the towel.
Instead of waiting until the war comes to us, we have the opportunity today to ensure that the war never comes to us – Ukraine stands with that opportunity on a silver platter in the finest waiter uniform and smiles very trustingly and only expects us to receive it.

A little calibration – Ukraine has taken the whole hit and both severely decimated and invaded the West’s great arch-enemy Russia (since the 1700s sometime for Sweden). The Red Storm and the great threat we lived with between 1945 – 1989 and which oppressed half of Europe for forty years has been completely disgraced.

Ukraine has been pretty okay with dying for us and really only asked for enough materiel to win the war, and on several occasions it looked promising but the West has with great effort at the last moment managed to pull the rug out.

And a bit like Scrooge McDuck, we sit on our pyramids of materiel and give Ukraine a few barely rolling wagons and expect great gratitude in return.

Remember the NATO meeting 2023 where Ukraine was called ungrateful and the British defense minister resigned “for some unrelated reason” 😲
(I can think that we are the ungrateful ones but then again I just sit in my parents’ basement playing Rise of Nations).

Then history is constantly corrected so in two years the thread will scream “source please otherwise it didn’t happen” when we write that it was Joe Biden’s administration that did not allow the countries in the EU to let Ukraine fight targets in Russia with these countries’ OWN Storm Shadow and Scalp 😀

Lex VDV at Kherson – always save the links.

Now autumn 2024 Ukraine is short on most things and they are retreating on virtually all fronts so Zelensky is trying to get support for his “Victory plan” which basically is – “remove all bans and give us all the weapons we need and we will restore the 1991 borders. As thanks you get our protection and our raw materials”.
A pretty reasonable deal, I think actually?

Russia has countered by North Korea joining the war on Russia’s side and the vanguard is now in combat or soon in combat. It has been communicated that 500 officers are in Russia including the next highest command in the NK armed forces. This suggests that more are coming and that they are there on reconnaissance.
You may remember my prediction that Putin has paid for at least 30,000 and that I did not dare guess the ceiling – don’t forget I am always right 😀

During October 2024, the Russians suffered the highest losses in the entire war in IFVs and personnel – that says a lot about the intensity of the fighting right now. In my opinion, the RU offensive has not yet culminated as it should open up along the entire southern front and RU also make an attempt towards Pokrovsk. I also expect an assault wedge from Bryansk Oblast.

What we never discuss because we shouldn’t is that FAB is decimating UA defenses heavily and that in the absence of sufficient indirect fire they now have to start meeting RU mechanized assaults with near PV so they reveal their positions that can be targeted with FAB. In 2023, RU barely got within shooting range of their assault objectives and now in 2024 they are driving straight over the assault objectives – there is a very big difference between 2023 and 2024.

Yesterday Zelensky made the following statement (a good video too but a montage for mood). He is trying to shape opinion in the West to get help by pointing out that the de-escalation doctrine now makes North Korea much more dangerous.
Is he wrong?
No, he is absolutely right, if Putin had had the entire VDV wiped out in 2022 and the war been over, North Korea would not have joined the war.
https://x.com/maria_drutska/status/1852460741342978101?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

https://x.com/zelenskyyua/status/1852457667299864913?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Zelensky is quite articulate right now.
https://x.com/kyivpost/status/1852471945582768190?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

He is also angry at Poland.
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1852109538302005724?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Zelensky with a full tin foil hat 😲
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1852013005061390491?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

The posters we have come to appreciate over time are pouring out their anger over the USA and other countries, posting a small collage
https://x.com/glasnostgone/status/1852284185639088251?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/GlasnostGone/status/1852052125754564735?t=kk0kXmygv-LcZnY7wDyO_g&s=19
https://x.com/oksii33/status/1851950295468691954?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
https://x.com/reshetz/status/1851748570522882527?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Zelensky is furiously angry
https://x.com/m0nstas/status/1851607665979310591?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

And here Zelensky openly says that the West has NOT accepted the Victory Plan – you can stop hoping.
https://x.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1851599740984574308?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

Tendar, whom I usually read, says just like us that the broad strokes are being painted in 2024.
https://x.com/tendar/status/1852484466024812704?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w

The thread has difficulty handling this because it is not part of the picture we want – that we in the West support Ukraine to a win. So now the real test comes whether it is Ukraine we support even if it means we have to accept that the West is abandoning them.

I am quite forgiving towards UA psyops as it serves a purpose as you may have noticed, you can continue to comment if I accidentally post some North Korean who is an actor (ok, that was deliberate to provoke a little) 😀

It may happen that everything changes on November 5 or at the next Ramstein meeting but then ask yourself why Zelensky makes enemies with everyone two weeks before the meeting if he had received these guarantees that the West will fully support.

Because in this game everything is communicated to Zelensky in good time and if he is acting like this, he probably does not have a list of good news that he is sitting and choosing between.

Rather, Ukraine probably feels right now that the West is about to abandon them, that is the impression I get from what is being communicated.

What I almost dare to say is that no decisions will be made before November 5 and after that all our elected officials aim for Christmas break so no hard decisions will come before Christmas.

I also believe that the West still thinks that the worst that can happen is negotiations but Putin is not interested in that at all. So I also bet on the following statement from some leader in the West before the end of Q1 2025.
“Putin promised us to negotiate as long as we forced Ukraine to the negotiating table but he broke his promise, everything is Putin’s fault we just followed the agreement.”

Just so PIIIP, PIIIP, PIIIIIIIIIP PIIIIP, PIP is all I have to say.

I now think it is important to discuss red lines here because that is somewhat what has given us our era’s relative peace (yes, not if you lived in Libya or Somalia then maybe but you understand). In 1939 our last global conflict started in total absence of red lines. Or they existed on paper but no one cared.

Now we have another warring party in the war in Ukraine and both NATO and the USA have expressed concern about it and that it is an escalation etc.

Ukraine does as they always do and makes sure they meet the criteria the West has set out in words to get the West to the action they have said they intend to follow – they managed to find a damn little worm-eaten North Korean and capture him (would not surprise me if it was deep inside Kursk 🤣🤣). A rumor so far as I have not seen the tapeworm film yet but we are pushing that line.

Then there are two camps, one that the USA has not drawn any red line at all so they have no obligation to do anything (a strange position in itself from those who hold it) and one that Ukraine will then get everything because the USA has had enough.

Let’s discuss if the USA does NOT draw any red line here, what happens then?
-China can join the war on Russia’s side, first covertly through NK and then increasingly openly.
-Taiwan can be invaded.
-I..el can be invaded
-South Korea can be invaded.
-Article 5 can be tested.

Why?
Because the USA has previously said that they will help Ukraine to “win”, that exact word was used by Biden. But when the opponent escalates to win over Ukraine the USA does not meet that and then they are not reasonably helping Ukraine to win?

Because if the USA + EU do not put their foot down, the 500 higher NK officers will go back to their army bases after their pre-deployment and move their brigades to Ukraine.

Then suddenly all other promises become equally loose and the above is what I could think of where the USA has made promises and then NATO.

If nothing else, everything is an escalation ladder and China and Russia will test the next step if this works.

If Ukraine does not get its 1991-win then several things will play out, one is a refugee wave and another is the EU’s new unstoppable mafia – it is almost indisputable.

Then maybe you remember my discussion about reversal and that Ukraine turns to China instead, something they themselves have hinted at on the periphery now.
Does the EU want a Ukraine that is closely allied with China?

For the hundredth time – it is not about sending something important, it is about sending what Ukraine needs to win the war. If Ukraine loses when our preparedness stocks were full, we have not done enough (and they are the opposite of what some claim).

And what a big game Ukraine would be for China 😐

This one is from the 128th defense at Shaktarske, maybe posted before, I don’t know.
Do you see UA artillery?
Do you see the drones at full speed?
Do you see UA minefields or near-PV/PV missile?
Mech attack when it could never happen again according to many 🤣
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1850665846420754784

I get the impression here that the defense is short on equipment, yes a few drones and some P-shots but compare with the 72nd defense of Vuhledar 2023 where they shot down roughly 50 – 100 vehicles per major attack with the full range of indirect capabilities.

This is starting to feel a bit like Finland 1944 to me if nothing really dramatic happens soon, and unfortunately we are heading towards Christmas break 😡

The counterattacks being carried out, most recently in Toretsk, are the 3rd, 12th and GUR with some local help – they are mobile counterattackers. It’s always the same brigades.

The Russians fight as simply as possible – all fronts move forward and they order forward according to their new tactics. Infantry crawling forward until they think they can get a breakthrough after a FAB rain and then the mech is deployed. If it didn’t work – back to FAB and then attack again.

Zelensky looks completely exhausted now.
There are EXTREMELY many negative statements from Zelensky right now and Ukraine has so far in the war been very cautious. That alone is worrying.

We should keep an eye on a couple of things if you remember from before and one of them was that Ukraine started to retreat at the fronts and that is where we are today. What I flagged as a warning then has now HIGHLY unexpectedly happened.

I maintain that in 2024 the big brushstrokes of this war will be painted so we have two months to paint something nice 😀

14:30

As usual, I run events a LITTLE ahead.

But what I have looked at that others miss who comment in the thread is WHAT Ukraine has lost.
You don’t want to lose tactically important terrain and a lot is done to hold it.

Therefore, I am not interested in Selydove but very interested in the attack wedge down to Oskil for example.

Then the Vuhledar offensive is not critical in itself BUT if it signals that RU can gain momentum further west on the southern front then it is a serious situation.

Then promised support today is first on the battlefield in several months and I am worried that UA does not have that time.

But yes, running a little ahead 😀

16:16

If you wonder why I never complain about Putin, Xi, Kim Yong Un or Trump – it is the silence from the friends that hurts.

https://x.com/Igor_from_Kyiv_/status/1852430230549606808

17:30

Before we dive into Saturday drunkenness, I can recommend Gundam on Netflix or Fallout on Amazon if, like me, you are sitting in West Africa and need to kill some time.

So what is Saturday drunkenness?

It is for the slightly more daring and toughened gender identities, all are fine except cats because they don’t drink or identities that don’t drink alcohol but you probably know that. I myself identify as a beer so there are absolutely no restrictions to relate to luckily, a bit of a lucky draw that I chose that.

Simply put, you drink the leftovers from Friday drunkenness in a stealth bomber way so no one nearby sees you doing a double shift. The experienced have naturally already planned for Saturday drunkenness when they resourced Friday drunkenness and have some long cans left and a splash of strong stuff left, alternatively some wine in one of the bottles they managed to hide in time.

And yes, fun movies are also included during Saturday drunkenness, the first movie is above just because it could be me.