It seems like the EU has managed the hybrid war against Spain in a sensible way?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/aug/04/eu-criticises-spain-migrant-plan-ceuta-crisis-meeting
Also note this passage;
“A statement published by the EU council after the meeting said there was “a common understanding of the need to continue relentlessly fighting migrant smuggling networks, to reinforce returns, to strengthen EU borders, to build deep partnerships with third countries, and to improve foresight”.
It is clear that the EU now stands united in tackling the part of the hybrid war waged through trafficking.
The EU has also provided a lot of firefighting capacity to the countries with many forest fires and you know that the number of arrests is skyrocketing down there.
The administration in Ceuta has commented that there is a new call on social media to head to the enclave again on August 15th, by the way.
Vatnik Soup, which is a credible source, writes that similar campaigns are underway to initiate a thunder-run against Europe’s eastern border. Those of you who have read Johan No.1 already knew this would come this summer.
Ukraine informed us the other day that a Russian disinformation campaign about Ceuta has also started.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/07/31/8046738
This source reports extensively on the UA war and, in my opinion, is on the right side; he thinks Spain is not doing enough.
If Spain now gets organized, then Europe’s outer shield is essentially intact against state-organized campaigns against the EU in the way that happened in Ceuta. We can only hope they took notes during the meeting with the EU because if they show unwillingness to handle this, there will surely be consequences for them – 22 EU countries signed the letter to them and the finger is probably already on the trigger to impose a hard border against Spain.
I have had a small thought for a while that the EU, through incremental trials, only becomes stronger and better organized, we shall see.
That 22 countries act on their own initiative without it being ground down in the EU for months is very good – we unfortunately did not manage Hungary at all but now we have started against Spain quite promptly.
We have a lot ahead of us – if you have followed UA’s drone strikes on Wildberries, it is an attempt to collapse the Russian banking system, the company is enormous, overleveraged, and the huge central warehouses are burning down to the ground. What do you think a totally written-off Tomteboda would do for Postnord?
I think it’s called creating a black swan, and why would Russia miss that chance against us if we do it to them through Ukraine?
Or Iran, if they block everything in Hormuz at the right time and show that the US does not have control (I don’t know if they can or if the US has control or not), then it could cause ripple effects at the right time.
By pressing the right buttons, one could even trigger a financial crisis, just as Ukraine is trying to do with Russia.
The other threat is increased Russian hybrid warfare against us; now they tried to fly drones with warheads into a Ukrainian cargo plane at an airport in Germany – there was no detonation but otherwise the operation was flawless.
A bit to take with you – when I have long discussed the FPV drone weapon with operators inside Europe against our fighter jets stationed at bases in Europe, the answer has always been “it’s not possible.”
But it was possible, the airports handling Ukrainian deliveries are, according to all available information, already protected due to an elevated threat level and just as Brovdi, the drone king, has already told us, we are so far completely defenseless.
The only reason we don’t have a huge ammunition explosion in Leipzig is a technical fault on the drone that hit a plane in flight, and apparently that a passenger simply grabbed the other drone on the ground.
Putin now has two choices – gradually increase the pressure or go all in.
For my part, I think Europe can best handle a gradual increase and judging by how we acted after Spain, we are now ready to start making tougher decisions. I welcome such a process because it will only make the EU stronger, the phoenix rising and all.
If Putin chooses to escalate to a higher level immediately – there I think Europe’s weaknesses can unfortunately be better exploited since we are not mentally prepared for a war.
Our Supreme Commander asks us to prepare mentally for war, I am mentally prepared for a war if someone can mention it to the Supreme Commander when you talk to him. The Dominican Republic will verbally support Sweden fully through me.
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/sverige/ob-var-beredda-pa-ryska-angrepp
Yes, we are already preparing major measures to strengthen border protection against the barbarians in the east but so far it is meetings with bottled water and it is not worth more than the paper it is written on until units are in place.
The Baltics have also not managed to mine the border or build fortifications, which is unfortunate. They argued for over two years about the thickness of bunker walls and the concrete mix.
Their tank ditches are like a drainage ditch at the neighbor’s farm, roughly, and legends like Clement Mohlin have gone through satellite images in the Baltics and bluntly concluded that very little has been built in terms of static defense.
“That’s not how you wage war, you have offensive brigades behind that attack,” everyone now screams in a violent chorus, faces bright red.
Yes, but the Baltics themselves lack heavy brigades, Europe has not sent any, and the US just pulled theirs out.
If Putin manages to get inside our decision circle, there is a high risk that we will not be quick enough on that ball.
Budanov warned late 2025 that Russia moved back its timeline for a full invasion of the Baltics to 2027. That German bastard Breuer, who has been nagging about 2029-2031 at the earliest for years so that it has taken a strong hold, is pretty quiet these days, has anyone heard from him?
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/12/20/8012745
Breuer
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/germany-warns-of-possible-russian-attack-1748828263.html
You have all read the posts about Operation Baltics that I spam-posted, you know the broad strokes.
In April this year, RU completed extensive infrastructure work on all roads, road bridges, railway tracks, and railway stations from St. Petersburg, Kursk, Smolensk, and Moscow towards the Baltic border. This is in addition to all the depots, bases, and warehouses they have built in the nearby areas towards the border, which are also turnkey ready.
The Baltics have long discussed air defense and artillery units that have moved in the Pskov area but have not appeared in Ukraine – posted this earlier.
Lukashenko in Belarus is walking a very tightrope and absolutely does not want to go to war but the country canceled 19 forest areas against Ukraine and Poland a few months ago and preparations for mobilization have been made – for example, some hackers found information that schools and arenas were being prepared to receive mobilized personnel.
For UA’s part, they are keeping an eye on things and complaining that RU is building firing positions for artillery and air defense near their border.
Calibration – Belarus will not go to war but can project a threat against Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania that ties down troops.
Russia also recently closed the border with the Baltics and Finland, which many interpreted as measures to prevent flight during mobilization, or perhaps to prevent oversight.
Rumors about Russian mobilization after the election in September are circulating widely, and RU has at least made preparations by building up the entire organization, hiring new administrators, and forcing everyone to register so they can receive a digital mobilization order. They have also prepared the internal troops for social unrest, so they are now testing their car batteries for electroshock therapy and repainting the cells.
All preparations that can be made to start a war below the level of actual mobilization are thus completed now in the summer of 2026.
Regarding capability, you also know that 30,000 North Koreans in their 11th AC stand behind the border in the Kursk area and can, if Putin so wishes, take over border control and thereby free up two army corps that have a 10-hour driving time by road up to the Baltic border.
Since everyone assumes that units along the northern border with Ukraine are at war with Ukraine, no preparations there are interpreted as capability building against the Baltics. The area has been relatively calm, so there have been every opportunity to resource and train units there.
Rosgvardia has begun forming parts of its organization into maneuver brigades with heavy equipment including artillery; the entire organization is well over 350,000 strong.
FSB, GRU, SOF, SVR all have their own special units prioritized with equipment and training.
The Russian drone weapon is called Rubicon and is set up following the Ukrainian model and well resourced – it is also detectable.
From what I can see, Russia absolutely has the capability today to take on the Baltics, but perhaps it is still a matter of taste until it is no longer so?
I think everyone understands that the USA will not help – they have withdrawn their last offensive unit from Eastern Europe, and the only non-Baltic unit remaining north of the W-E line Daugava is the British heavy battalion, but they are to withdraw their tanks in a reorganization.
https://meta-defense.fr/en/2026/07/18/british-army-replaces-armoured-battlegroup-estonia
Russia has no equipment is probably the next myth flying around, but they have over 5,000 tanks deployed, and we do not see many at all in Ukraine. 250 T90Ms are built per year, and they also build them with fragmentation protection so it’s going fast. Now that Rosgvardia has received heavy equipment, other units have probably received it already.
Yes – Russia will be very careful about going to war with Poland, and the big question is actually whether the German brigade in Lithuania together with the Poles and the Canadian-led brigade will try to cross the Daugava in the event of conflict or not.
Since Belarus can project a threat without starting a war, my thought is that these units will then focus on defending the border against Poland and Lithuania. They then serve no function for the Russian attack plan, as the terrain north of the W-E line Daugava does.
The next big question is whether Russia has tried to accelerate the timeline since autumn 2025 or not – the best thing that can happen for us is if Putin chooses to escalate the hybrid war to a twilight mode but so slowly that he does not get inside our decision cycle. The EU will be able to counter that.
You can be completely sure that he will escalate – Russia is already at war with us, and Iran is fighting for its survival.
Against China, we have just introduced tariffs and various barriers, so they are probably not grateful for our pursuit of world peace either.
It does not matter what we think – it is Russia, Iran, and China who will start a conflict if it comes, and how they perceive the situation is what is interesting.
I was sitting and looking through the below from 2020, and it does not get many things right except the decision-making on our side; we also have to remove the USA from the equation now.
So roughly, I think this will unfortunately play out if there is a rapid escalation – when RU is dug in north of the Daugava and has deployed its drone umbrella, the analysis will be that Europe is not prepared for the losses required to retake the area, and we wish the Baltics all the best going forward.
https://www.gssc.lt/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/165_162_Hooker_proof.pdf
What we end up with remains to be seen, but everything is connected – state actors have started a hybrid war against us, and the faster we counter it, the less war there will be.
The next point is that Ukraine today cannot shoot down ballistic missiles, and according to their own statements, interceptors are lacking.
https://omni.se/zelenskyj-vi-hade-raddat-liv-med-ratt-luftvarnssystem/a/K8bwbM
We know that the USA hit the brakes on Patriot PAC3 because they have used up everything in the Iran war, but Europe is supposed to manufacture what, 3-4 own equivalent systems?
Why don’t we send interceptors to Ukraine? They already have all the platforms for all different systems in place, but the tubes are empty?
Either we have not increased production, we cannot increase because China is holding back components, or everyone is hoarding as much as they can – I don’t know the reason.
Or is it that only Patriot PAC3 works well – I find that very hard to believe.
But the fact is that Russia has now found a weakness they are exploiting maximally, and Ukraine cannot counter this yet; yesterday’s attack on Kyiv had zero (0) shot down.
These days, North Korea has brought ballistic missile launchers into western Russia with a total of 120 missiles to fight targets in Ukraine.
You hear our screams, have we reached the point where we are starting to get scared?
You know what I think, we should have dug in light infantry along the Baltic border who used the summer to mine and build fortifications, but we have not done that.
Now it is the deepest August, everyone is at the cabin in the archipelago drinking rosé wine, so nothing will happen before the first meetings in September at the earliest.
A positive is that sometime in October, the rains will make the ground bearing capacity unfavorable for the attacking party, and then it depends entirely on when the frost sets in the ground after that when offensive operations can be conducted again – weather dependent.
A big reason Russia did not manage to overrun Ukraine in 2022 was because the ground did not bear, so they were locked to roads with better bearing capacity, and Ukraine could do a Sitting Bull on them where they knocked out the lead vehicles and everything stopped. The spicy part was that China probably asked them to wait until the Olympics were over so as not to spoil the optics, so we really have China to thank for Russia not winning the war early.
Wild guess that Russia has learned that lesson the hard way and hired a meteorologist part-time?
If there is an “El Nino winter,” January and February in Europe are supposed to become very cold, and then naturally the ground will bear again.
My high-risk periods were Midsummer, where the Baltics apparently take it as seriously as we do in Sweden, and then from the turn of July/August onwards when all of Europe is on vacation.
Then the danger is over sometime in October when the rains start in earnest until the ground then freezes.
I have severely underestimated Europe’s willingness to defend itself, so my previous predictions about when the danger would be over do not hold – instead, we have withdrawn units from the Baltics (USA), we have no drone weapons worth mentioning, neither anti-drone nor our own drones. Apparently, we also no longer have interceptors against ballistic missiles.
Considering that we have had 4.5 years and Putin already in 2007 in Munich told us exactly what would happen, one almost has to tip their hat to that achievement.
If you don’t see that Russia has increased the pace of the hybrid war, it’s because you don’t want to see it, and if you refuse to think about the next phase, which then becomes a twilight state and then war, you might want to ask yourself why Russia has increased the pace of the hybrid war.
Sitting on your hands and hoping for the best worked fine when Russia was only waging war against Ukraine and they refused to give up, but now they have expanded to Europe and then we have to start making difficult decisions because Ukraine is where it is and cannot come to the rescue and solve this for us.
Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!
Russian losses in Ukraine 2026-08-06
SLAVA UKRAINI
Ukrainian General Staff Report
💥🔥✊
** Ukraine attacks one of Russia’s largest oil refineries for 2nd night in a row, locals report.
The reported target is the Slavneft-Yanos oil refinery in Yaroslavl, over 700 kilometers (435 miles) from the Ukrainian border. It is one of Russia’s five largest refineries, with an annual crude oil capacity of 15 million metric tons. **
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-attacks-one-of-russias-largest-refineries-for-2nd-night-in-a-row-locals-report/
** ❗️🇺🇦Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully attacked the 🇷🇺Yaroslavl Oil Refinery. This facility is a key fuel supplier for Moscow and the entire Moscow agglomeration. Its design capacity is approximately 15 million tons of oil per year. **
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3msfd3cusqs2n
** Ukraine Hits Russia’s Top-5 Oil Refinery as Fuel Shortages Spread Across Country
In brief: Ukrainian drones struck one of Russia’s largest oil refineries for the seventh time this year, sparking a fire at the Slavneft-YANOS facility in Yaroslavl. The attack comes as Kyiv’s strikes on Russian energy infrastructure deepen Moscow’s fuel shortages and disrupt oil refining capacity. **
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/81805
Absolutely right to strike at the heart of the beast. The cancerous tumor Moscow itself.
** NATO fighter jet scrambles increase 250% as Russia tests border with military planes, Alliance says.
Aircraft scrambles along NATO’s eastern border increased by 250% in July 2026 compared to July 2025, due to Russian military planes skirting Alliance airspace without flight plans. **
https://kyivindependent.com/nato-fighter-jet-scrambles-increase-250-as-russian-airspace-violations-rise-alliance-says/
** Kyiv has right to seize Russian shadow fleet vessel transporting stolen grain, Swedish court affirms.
The “landmark decision” marks the first time a foreign court has ordered the handover of a Russian ship tied to stolen Ukrainian grain. **
https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-has-right-to-seize-russian-shadow-fleet-vessel-transporting-stolen-grain-swedish-court-affirms/
Nice 👍
https://omni.se/a/0prMvJ
Serves the Russians right, then it’s probably an open question how they will take revenge on the Swedish judiciary….
** Voice of America to relaunch Ukrainian-language broadcasting.
Voice of America will resume its Ukrainian-language broadcasts and return some employees of its Ukrainian Service to work, Ruslan Petrychka, head of the broadcaster’s Ukrainian Service, announced on Aug. 5. **
https://kyivindependent.com/voice-of-america-to-relaunch-ukrainian-language-broadcasting/
Received money from other sources or has someone in the Trump administration forgotten to condition the grants?
And what about broadcasts in Russian? Do VOA and BBC send broadcasts over Moscow?
** Ordinary Russians are expressing outrage at their Wildberries warehouses being burned down. They can’t fathom why Ukraine would do such a thing: Somehow I had optimism inside, and I thought they wouldn’t hit our Aleksin warehouse hard, because so many have already been hit, and maybe they will protect it in our region. But today I woke up and this is the view from my window. And, to be honest, I have no words. All words simply cancel out. I deeply sympathize with every entrepreneur who has faced this misfortune. ** Movie:
https://bsky.app/profile/slavaukraini033.bsky.social/post/3msfccdvihc2o
FAFO Russian bastards, FAFO.
Cry me a river.
Russian companies are finding it increasingly difficult to keep up with the wage race driven by the war economy, writes Bloomberg. Wages have increased significantly faster than productivity since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, while economic growth has stalled.
– This is not sustainable. When wages rise faster than productivity, companies’ profits are squeezed, says Astra Asset Management’s Chief Investment Officer Dmitrij Polevoj.
According to Bloomberg Economics, the development risks driving out less efficient companies that cannot compete with the defense industry’s wages.
https://omni.se/ryska-krigsekonomin-driver-upp-lonerna-bolag-tar-stryk/a/PdOKzX
Off-Topic, the sun up close
“Scientists have taken the most detailed image of the sun’s ‘surface’ to date – and what emerges is a strange feather-like pattern. What is visible is the sun’s magnetic field being twisted and moved by the hot gas, writes the BBC.
The study was published in Nature on Wednesday. The researchers used the world’s most powerful telescope to obtain the images.
Solar physicist Ruizhu Chen at Stanford University, who did not participate in the study, thinks the image is beautiful.
– It reminds me of famous paintings, like the swirling skies in Van Gogh’s ‘Starry Night,’ she told AP.”
https://omni.se/mest-detaljerade-bilden-av-solen-liknar-van-gogh/a/n1M8n5
Off-Topic, Gaza
“112 people who were killed in an Israeli attack on a residential building in 2023 have been buried in Gaza, reports NBC News.
The funeral is the largest ever in Gaza. The victims are mostly women and children, whose bodies were recently found in the rubble in the Sabra neighborhood of Gaza City.
BBC has asked the Israeli army to explain the target of the attack but has not received any response. In total, at least 70,000 people have been killed in Gaza since the war began.”
https://omni.se/hundratals-offer-i-gazas-storsta-massbegravning/a/d4GVRA
Thank you Johan no 1 for the interesting post. But also thanks to MXT for yesterday’s summary of the overall situation.👍👍👍
+1👍
👍
** For under $120, Russia can get Ukrainian warehouse bombed. Here’s how it finds its targets
Russia can launch around 100 ballistic missiles at Ukraine each month.
Russia has the ballistic missiles to keep hitting Ukraine every month at the current pace. Russia can launch about 100 ballistic missiles at Ukraine each month, technology specialist and presidential adviser Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov said on 5 August.**
https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/08/05/for-under-120-russia-can-get-ukrainian-warehouse-bombed-heres-how-it-finds-its-targets/
The Russian missile attacks are putting heavy pressure on the Ukrainian port of Odesa, reports the BBC. When the radio channel visits the facility, the piers are empty, and the ships that were lined up to be unloaded before the war are nowhere to be seen.
Russia has significantly escalated its attacks on Ukraine’s shipping. According to the Ukrainian port authority, civilian ships were hit 57 times and port infrastructure 67 times, just last month.
According to the maritime newspaper Lloyd’s List, this makes July the deadliest month for civilian shipping so far during the war.
Port worker Svitlana Haltjenko tells the BBC about a low-intensity fear among her colleagues.
– A missile from the Crimean Peninsula reaches here in one minute. If you are sitting in a crane, you have three and a half minutes to get down and reach a shelter. There literally isn’t time for that, she says.
https://omni.se/a/Arxjnx
** Ukraine Has Restored Full US Intelligence Support Since 2025 Freeze, Boosting Strikes Inside Russia
In brief: The United States has restored full intelligence sharing with Ukraine after a temporary freeze in 2025, helping Kyiv carry out more effective long-range strikes inside Russia, Politico reported. US lawmakers and experts say renewed cooperation has strengthened Ukraine’s battlefield position and increased pressure on Moscow. **
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/81812
Good 👍
So there has been a stop until now, I didn’t think that.
Very good anyway that they are up and running again.
It probably doesn’t cost many extra kronor to share information one already has, otherwise it might not have happened. Maybe Trump is starting to realize that Russia is not the US’s friend considering their support for Iran.
A small step in the right direction at least.
AI summary in Swedish
The article draws parallels between the war in Ukraine and historical conflicts such as the American Civil War and the world wars to highlight the importance of adaptation, technology integration, and political leadership in prolonged wars.
Key points in the summary:
Military adaptation: Long conflicts require a steep learning curve where new technology (such as drones in Ukraine) must be effectively integrated with traditional military forces to achieve success.
Leadership and dismissals: Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has recently dismissed both his Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov and Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi following internal conflicts and public protests.
Historical examples: The article shows that it is a sign of strength, rather than weakness, to replace military leaders during ongoing wars. Leaders like Abraham Lincoln and Winston Churchill did the same before finding a winning combination of generals.
Democracy in wartime: Zelenskyy’s retreat and change of decisions after public protests show that Ukrainian democracy is still alive and functioning amid the ongoing war. The conclusion is that Zelenskyy needs to balance both modern high-tech warfare and traditional ground combat to reach the ultimate goal: victory.
https://www.byteseu.com/2254497/
The USA has, as is well known, completely emptied their stocks during the war against Iran.
They come across as trigger-happy amateurs. How do they plan to handle a conflict with a more potent enemy like China? And what lessons will they later draw from the situation?
I think many of us believed they were much more competent!
Hegseth will probably be fired soon.
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2085190063369973822
Basically, the US military doctrine does not seem much better than Russia’s or China’s. Their advantage is based on numbers, not innovation and skill. Then their size and democratic (well) system of government means that some innovation still arises in contrast to Russia.
The US gets a beating in asymmetric warfare when they are put to the test; Swedish submarines sinking aircraft carriers and running circles around American ships in submarine hunts, Swedish and Finnish conscripts spanking American professional military when they cannot operate logistics equivalent to the size of Värnamo.
That the F35 is not light years better than the JAS 39 Gripen E/F shows that the innovation is either slack, lazy, sluggish, poor, or all of the above.
Agree, the whole war is a failure except for the oil companies.
The ship Caffa from the Russian shadow fleet, which the Coast Guard boarded outside Trelleborg this spring, can be handed over to Ukraine. The Supreme Court has decided not to take up the case, which means that the Court of Appeal’s ruling stands, reports TV4 News.
Ukraine appears to have been informed of the decision already on Wednesday. In a post on X yesterday, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha welcomed the verdict. He believes that the ruling proves that determined efforts by authorities and the judiciary can “turn the principle of accountability into concrete results.”
“This groundbreaking ruling creates an important precedent,” Sybiha writes in the post.
It is the first time a foreign court has made a decision to hand over a Russian ship linked to stolen Ukrainian grain to Ukraine, according to Kyiv Independent.
** Ukraine’s Air Force says Russia launched 101 attack drones overnight, including mostly jet-powered Shaheds, along with two Oniks anti-ship missiles and two Kh-31P anti-radiation missiles. Air defenses downed or suppressed 66 drones. Twenty-nine drones and one Oniks missile reached targets **
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3msfirl7t2s2o
Other Europe has Ukraine to thank for A LOT. Now that the Russian bastards are escalating, we are in great need of their knowledge and abilities.
“The drone discovered at Leipzig airport shows that the German drone defense is completely inadequate. That is what terrorism expert Peter Neumann tells NTV.
He believes that Leipzig airport is a crucial hub for deliveries of support to Ukraine, and everything points to Russia being behind it.
– This cannot continue. We need functioning systems immediately.”
https://omni.se/a/ExB3k5
👍
Speaking of the USA having started to commit strategic suicide and rapidly eroding its superpower status.
China is also seriously in trouble according to this article in DI.
https://www.di.se/nyheter/kina-forbereder-sig-for-en-stor-finansiell-krasch/
Their economy is in significantly worse shape than they want to admit. Problems in the real estate sector, demographics, and youth unemployment combined with a weak domestic market and a heavy overproduction for an increasingly saturated export market place a heavy burden on the banking system, and the state and regional authorities will likely no longer be able to keep the banks afloat, which is why they have started preparing the ground for rescue funds.
China can choose to do an Argentine Galtieri maneuver, i.e., try to create a foreign policy distraction, for example Taiwan, or start backing away from its aggressive foreign policy mainly towards the EU, Canada, India, and others to enable a more balanced trade exchange instead of, as now, more and more choosing to restrict it.
The question is how long it will take before China starts moving away from Russia and withdraws support for Putin and his imperial dreams. China will realize that even after Putin, Russia will be extremely much more dependent on China, and the war against Ukraine and the collective West no longer benefits or serves any function for China’s interests but actually hinders them. This is now while a USA led by Trump continues to beat itself bloody and makes itself increasingly irrelevant on most levels.
I wonder what the future looks like for Xi and his closest circle, as the most important thing for the Chinese is stability, and a bad economy and aggressive foreign policy do not exactly help to maintain that.
Hmmm…
Considering that both China and Russia have some kind of “smash’n’grab” mentality, it might not be unthinkable that a larger war would actually benefit China?
This is how I think:
Signals seem to indicate that China has an unstable economy, youth unemployment, a saturated export market, etc.
A war could solve much of this… people need to be mobilized, more war material needs to be produced, an opportunity is given to grab some more territory somewhere…
Cynical? yes, and we know the Chinese play very cynically (just like Russia).
Does China not care that they could be subjected to kinetic responses?
Probably not, we already know that China, by and large, doesn’t care (just like Russia) about the welfare of its population when it comes down to it. Losses could also be used for propaganda purposes, it would also reduce unemployment and actually be a source of more oppression – “we are at war, we must increase security”.
For China, this war also means a more unstable world which is (paradoxically) stability for them.
So, yes, China benefits from a larger war.
A thought, could it be that China itself needs components for its upcoming warfare, and that is why there is a component shortage in Europe/the world…?
And, I could be wrong. Your thoughts?
The question is just what would they build their welfare on after such a conflict?
Who would want to or even be able to buy their products.
The problem is partly similar in Beijing as in Moscow and indeed Washington. Xi has managed to upset the balance of power and surrounds himself with yes-men. He also seems to be more interested in historical remembrance rather than economic prosperity for the country and its inhabitants?
Previously, the presidency in China (post-Mao) rotated precisely because it is the party’s will (or rather the leadership’s) that should prevail. Xi has effectively made himself an autocrat.
China lives off our money. But just like with Russia, we are more than happy to step up and open our wallets.
🎯
Nixon made a historic mistake and Europe has naively believed that democracy will spread through trade.
Nixon may have been a bad president, but widening the rift between the communist states China and the Soviet Union by trying to normalize relations with the former was not entirely misguided.
What you correctly point out, that believing trade will somehow magically transform dictatorships with no tradition of popular rule into democratic role models, is to say the least naive and really short-sightedly greedy and incredibly downright stupid… But we cannot blame Nixon for that, rather those who governed during the 1980s and onwards.
Walk through trade!
Has not been a great success.
Russia is considering carrying out a false flag attack on critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea region. This information has reached Lithuania’s intelligence service, reports the Lithuanian news site 15min.
Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas confirms the threat and says that such an attack would likely be carried out with Ukrainian-made drones.
– We have information that Russia is considering conducting unconventional physical attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea region.
No timing for the intended attack has been disclosed. The threat is being discussed with other NATO countries, says Kaunas.
https://omni.se/a/n1M3pm
And so the question I return to:
How do we civilians prepare for war?
One thing I think you must have is a fireplace in your home?
Then you can manage power outages in the middle of winter at least.
A generator is a bit overkill, first you have to rewire the electricity and then you have to rotate the fuel and it must be installed indoors.
A small generator doesn’t work for wintertime; more power is needed than what a small portable one provides, and then you have to understand what should be disconnected.
Then they consume a hell of a lot of fuel.
There will probably never be a food shortage, but my wife has stocked up a thousand tons of spaghetti since COVID.
Water purification tablets, some plastic jerrycans, and flashlights?
—
The most important thing according to me is to be on good terms with the neighbors and live a bit out so you are closer to the farmer’s chicken farm than those who have to cycle down from the city 😀
Then you take the bike halfway up and sell the eggs to them for ten times the price 👍
A generator is probably good for being able to charge some electronics so you can keep up with the outside world, but for cooking and heating it is not enough unless you plan to store large amounts of fuel.
Access to water is probably among the most important, along with a supply of food.
Holding on and enduring is also important.
Otherwise, LW has written a pretty good book on the subject.. 😉
Swimming pool and good water purifier. Canned food as well as a camping stove or similar. Tent to set up indoors if needed.
Diesel heater and a portable generator. A modern electric car with V2X capability is also good.
Those who follow his book die first.
Have been thinking about taking the hunting license so you can also practice self-defense if needed, but never find the time.
After all, one has a damn obligation to be able to defend their family, and if you have children, it is even more important.
Weapons nowadays seem to be common for criminals, so you have to keep up, right?
Have been thinking along the same lines, but haven’t gotten around to it, so to speak.
That’s kind of how they think in the USA when it comes to weapons, the bandits have weapons, so the good guys must also have weapons to defend themselves, but it hasn’t gone very well there, it became too easy to get weapons.
Join a shooting club. 👍
The most important thing is to prepare mentally. Along with that comes physical preparation.
Unfortunately, there are quite a few useful idiots in this country (Quislings? Sorry… couldn’t resist) who happily fall for the hybrid war in Ceuta and get all worked up and go all out to position themselves. It turned out to be the completely wrong strategy as usual; one should have the whole picture clear before talking about how everyone should think.
On this blog, it was much more measured, and the whole thing was seen through immediately. It is proof that here there are people (and not bots or multi-registered pseudo commentators) who think for themselves.
Semi off topic but still not.
“The North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un’s sister Kim Yo Jong criticized in a statement on Wednesday what she describes as a significant military buildup in Japan, reports Bloomberg.
She also promised that North Korea would respond and that they ‘will make them regret it.’
Kim Yo Jong gave no further details, but the statement is now linked to the ballistic missile test that North Korea conducted on Thursday.”
https://omni.se/a/d4Go5B
”North Korea has fired what is believed to be a ballistic missile in the direction of Japan, reports Reuters. The missile’s trajectory is not believed to have posed a threat to any of the neighboring countries.
North Korea has conducted several weapons tests this year, including short-range missiles, artillery rockets, and other tactical weapons. According to Japan, increasing military coordination between North Korea, China, and Russia poses a security risk for the entire region.”
https://omni.se/a/q63zpe
Hope, and assume that Japan has significantly increased the production of Patriot missiles, which unlike Ukraine they have a license to manufacture. As well as that ma. Despite its pacifist constitution, finds a way to also share with Ukraine as soon as possible. Not least considering the 120 North Korean missiles that are certainly being used against Ukraine’s civilian population.
I join you in those hopes! 👍
We are late when it comes to drone adaptations, but fortunately, we are not alone in the war yet, although we are hopelessly behind when it comes to combating ballistic [missiles].
Sure, the technology exists, but production is obviously appallingly underdimensioned, and because of that, many Ukrainians are dying completely unnecessarily, besides causing other damage, not just to homes.
It could get damn tough for Ukraine this winter if the Russians focus more on the energy infrastructure instead of killing civilians.
One wonders what the military strategists in Europe’s countries and NATO are doing when they didn’t already realize three years ago that it could become urgent and ensured the right decisions were made to address it.
They are highly paid complete cheer idiots who have never had to do their jobs because there has been peace.
The rest of the organization has not been tested yet, but one can probably guess, based on Aurora26, roughly the level we are at.
** 💥 Border guards-operators of Strix unmanned systems unit destroyed 10 Molniya type strike UAVs far from the intended points of attack by the occupiers. 📍Southern Slobozhansky direction **
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3msftikv26224
Very good 👍
The military expert Johan Huovinen warns that Russia may take revenge on Sweden after the judiciary approved the extradition of the boarded shadow fleet vessel Caffa to Ukraine.
In an interview with TV4 News, Huovinen says that the Russians want to send a signal. As an example, he mentions a legal process in Russia against something Swedish or going after Swedish assets that remain in the country.
– Tit for tat, or an eye for an eye, is basically Russia’s tune.
The Coast Guard boarded the vessel outside Trelleborg in March. The legal process is now concluding as the Supreme Court chooses not to take up the case.
Shouldn’t tit for tat mean that they board one of our ships?
If there are any Swedish assets left in Moskoviet, I do not intend to shed any tears for those who lose the assets.
**❗️Ukraine’s ballistic missile FP-7 is set to carry out its first combat launch this autumn: according to Reuters, it is undergoing codification by the Ministry of Defence (a process that will take 2–4 weeks), and about 15 test launches have already been conducted. **
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3msft2st43s2f
** 🇬🇧❗️The UK has imposed sanctions on 12 more companies, one individual, and six vessels linked to Russia. The UK Foreign Office said the new measures target Russia’s financial, energy, and industrial sectors, as well as its oil and liquefied natural gas exports.
The sanctions cover Ozon Bank, Roseximbank, Center-Invest, Realist Bank, Stavr, and TelePort Bank. Alexander Zhdanov, the owner of the chemical company Siltron, was also added to the sanctions list.The companies Metalkomplekt, Nikom, Promsiz, and Technolux were also sanctioned. In addition, the restrictions apply to six vessels, including the LNG carrier Arctic Express and the tankers Perseas, Torvian, Asteras, Visund, and Zenturo. **
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3msfszuipec24
It was two refineries! 💥💥👍👍
** Ukraine hits 2 Russian oil refineries in latest deep strike drone attack, Zelensky says.
The reported target is the Slavneft-Yanos oil refinery in Yaroslavl, over 700 kilometers (435 miles) from the Ukrainian border. It is one of Russia’s five largest refineries, with an annual crude oil capacity of 15 million metric tons. **
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-attacks-one-of-russias-largest-refineries-for-2nd-night-in-a-row-locals-report/
“Ukraine has struck two Russian oil refineries with long-range weapons, according to the country’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Telegram.
Video footage shared by the president along with his post shows heavy black smoke rising over the facilities. The material has not yet been verified.
According to Kyiv Independent, it is the second consecutive day that the refinery in Yaroslavl has been hit by Ukrainian attacks. The region’s Russian governor says in a statement that four people were injured in last night’s attacks.”
https://omni.se/oljeraffinaderier-i-ryssland-i-lagor-efter-ukrainska-attacker/a/ExBdQP
Which was the second?
From the link:
“Another smaller refinery was hit further east in Russia’s Bashkortostan Republic, Zelensky reported, over 1,300 kilometers from the front line.”
posting Europe’s anti-drone weapons in action again.
Not a joke – prioritized transport hub for NATO and this is what it actually looks like.
It is not worrying – it is very dangerous.
NO ONE listens to Ukraine or Brovdi apparently.
UA shot down 55,000 drones of all categories in July.
Do we have enough brooms and tour guides in Europe for that 🧐
We are still dozing off and for me it is INCOMPREHENSIBLE, I simply cannot understand this.
450,000 visas to Russian citizens last year, we still buy oil and LNG.
we are building their threat against us and refuse to build defense.
That picture screams AI fake so much, where did you find it?
That certainly does not make it any less serious that we are unable to keep drones away from our airports.
What… No.. Fake..??? That’s exactly how all the girls who show up in my Tinder feed and say that I’m completely irresistible look… No, it’s not fake, not fake I say….
😂
Tinder 🧐
Forget the picture MXT but it was actually a tourist guide who took down the drone that was inside the airport.
Reported in German media.
But I guess I have to back down on the picture then.
Does that change anything 🧐
Good, then NATO will reach deep into russia without passing the borders.
** The United States Air Force has awarded Boeing the go-ahead for serial production of the new long-range JDAM LR guided bomb, capable of striking targets at distances exceeding 550 kilometers, according to a Boeing press release.
The new bomb combines the existing JDAM guidance system with a wing kit and a compact turbojet engine, significantly increasing its flight range. According to the developers, this enables strikes against land and maritime targets, as well as the deployment of naval mines at long distances while remaining outside the range of enemy air defenses.**
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/us-begins-production-of-boeing-s-new-550-1786013603.html
Sounds like a cheap UA solution roughly 😀
Yep, so cheap that they will be able to produce at least 10, maybe 15 per year!😄
Once again, the AI missed translating my opening sentence from English to Swedish..
Maybe it judged it to be too linguistically poor for it to manage to translate or simply refused.😆
Well Pehr, you are the one who is here when I start getting going, so I thought you were in a different time zone too 😀
I am definitely not trying to map out the thread 🧐
Before, 205 was also full throttle until he got mad at MXT, but I hope he comes back.
I also hope that 205 finds its way back.
I have spent my years abroad and will probably stay in Sweden, at least until retirement.
Now during the vacation, one has time to hang out more on this excellent site.
Good good, this page is in my opinion very good and MXT does a great job.
Hope everyone swishes him like clockwork every month.
✅
Tried to bite MXT a little but he got mad at me 😀
Sorry, it was 205 who got mad at me and the attempt to graze MXT was to say that 205 got mad at him 😀
Have been busy so didn’t get to see your first attempt to get me to bite… 😄
What the hell 😐
So you’re supposed to start the day with baseless accusations of fake news and laughing emojis. My life is harder than Elijah’s.
In several posts, I have brought up the FPV drone threat against our frontline aircraft neatly lined up at bases around Europe with rotobar, fuel, and ammunition in large stockpiles.
Or our LNG tank farms now that we are 25% below capacity compared to what we should have at this time of year.
A common response has been – “Russia would never dare” or “they can’t,” meaning that having a gang with FPV drones – is not possible.
Now they hardly need that because we have issued 450,000 Schengen visas in 2025 to Russians and just as many this year.
What kind of airport is Leipzig?
NATO hub and prioritized for security.
What have we heard?
That after two years of constant drone overflights, we have now raised the alert level across Europe.
What happened?
Two drones with warheads in the air, one of which hit a DHL plane but did not detonate.
One more drone on the tarmac near a UA Antonov plane presumably full of ammunition, Semtex in that drone.
A civilian airport employee discovered the drone and “neutralized it.”
THERE IS NO ANTI-DRONE WEAPON IN EUROPE.
WE DO NOT SEE THE DRONES IN EUROPE.
WE HAVE NO DEFENSE AGAINST DRONES IN EUROPE.
The above three sentences should make Europe terrified, but it mostly results in laughing emojis and baseless accusations of fake news as attempts at character assassination – the 1930s are knocking 🧐
So we must still be among the absolute forefront of those following this?
Why should it make Europe terrified?
Because Russia uses 10,000 FPV drones per day and Ukraine shot down 55,000 drones of all categories during July.
Ukraine AND Russia clearly show that you can turn off the lights and pull down the blinds within a few months in a country with the drone weapon.
Is there anyone who believes that this cannot be done with Europe, that it is somehow geographically limited to Ukraine or Russia?
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The drone with “an unknown explosive device” was found by an airport employee near the south runway, police said, adding it was being examined after having its detonator removed. An investigation was underway. (isn’t that self-explanatory?)
https://apnews.com/article/germany-airport-explosive-drone-leipzig-russia-ukraine-1fcc78547151369f756f5c9f677681de
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The situation is therefore not serious or we should do more.
It is a direct invitation to Putin to escalate the war against us because we are incapable of taking this seriously.
Now I will try to delve into why we do not have interceptors against ballistic missiles because that is damn well a scandal worse than the Geijer affair.
Ukraine will be bombed hard and have its worst winter ever because of something and now we shall figure out why.
Absolutely true! The denial is incredibly deep-rooted and the ability to act is incredibly slow.
The positive aspect in this grim situation is that such examples of serious “incidents” like the one at Leipzig airport put the spotlight on the problem and give the decision-makers a sharp kick in the backside.
Just imagine if there had been no fully or partially failed attempts like this one against DHL, but instead a sudden massive attack.
For example, from the shadow fleet that lies in a pearl necklace around Europe with cassettes for Geran installed?
They reach all high-value targets in Europe.
In addition to the gangs/operators/criminal clans/others paid in cash with FPV drones that have effectors.
Some of the 450,000 who received visas from us last year or as many this year on a monthly basis might have been drone operators?
At least the Ukrainian transport aircraft probably had ammunition, so Leipzig was probably written off as habitable.
Don’t know what the Russians have against DHL actually 😀
What is the reasoning behind issuing visas to Russians? Or perhaps rather, why don’t they dig their heels in and basically stop issuing such visas? Does anyone know the reasoning?
You are right that we need to tighten security, etc., but fake AI doesn’t help as an example of how bad it is, other than as a joke of course, but I didn’t perceive your text as humorous (though maybe that’s just me).
Read today a column in Vasabladet written by Ingmar Nevéus in DN. He saw similarities between the time before the First World War and what is happening now.
Among other things, the fact that Europe is walking into war like sleepwalkers, with incompetent diplomacy (USA) and poor crisis management.
Another similarity he notes is the resemblance between Trump and Germany’s war emperor Wilhelm II. The German historian Thomas Nipperdey wrote this description of Wilhelm II in 1992.
“..superficial, hasty, restless, unable to relax, without any deeper seriousness, without willingness to hard work or a sense of following things through to the end, without a sense of balance or limits, not even for reality or real problems. Uncontrollable and unable to learn from experience, desperate for applause and success.”
I could not describe Trump better myself.
I couldn’t edit out just the picture so I deleted the post instead 👍
But the picture was genuine, possibly the broom, the man in uniform, the drone parts, and the drone were added for effect 🧐
The bus and the plane were fake and probably the whole picture.
But as a funny illustration to mock how bad the situation is, I think it worked well.
Europe has developed new technology and is now ready to fight a drone invasion from Russia and China. “We will wipe the floor with them!” says a confident source within NATO.
😂
The image was not fake but everything inside the image was fake 🧐
Did you see that RU has deployed a destroyer from the Northern Fleet in the Baltic Sea?
https://militarnyi.com/en/news/russia-deploys-destroyer-admiral-levchenko-to-baltic-sea-reportedly-to-escort-shadow-fleet/
They have also recently practiced ground attacks focusing on ground targets.
https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/russia-ten-su30sm2-bombing-central-europe
We need to be vigilant in case the Russians continue building up their naval forces in the Baltic Sea. On the other hand, it could be a golden opportunity to trap these naval units and take them out in the event of some kind of Russian-provoked conflict. Because they would probably never get out of the Baltic Sea again.
In a conflict, some cargo ships will probably unfortunately sink in the passages through Denmark right away, and what exists in the Baltic Sea remains in the Baltic Sea.
Then I would probably have to claim that there is some justification to argue that with a drone weapon you can achieve quite a lot in a geographically limited inland sea, so it will probably be difficult to count ships and aircraft nowadays.
Submarines are probably still an ace up the sleeve and will be so even in today’s wars – naval underwater drones against submarines are not here yet.
That the Baltic Sea fleet goes down in a frontline-like situation is probably very likely 😀
Hope our submarines are following them closely.
Nice picture of the sun MXT 👍
Did you see that Elon’s rocket crashed right into the moon, like one of those that gets disconnected?
I thought it was a bit cool.
Missed Elon’s moon landing, thought he was aiming higher and should have reached Mars by now.
Already in 2016, 2026 was the goal for that, then it has been repeated a few times but now suddenly I think he has changed his mind so it’s a bit more vague, 2028-2030 is what applies.
Just like with the self-driving Tesla where it was supposed to come every year, everyone seems to think it’s completely OK that the timelines are totally off the wall, or maybe up in the blue fits better to describe his high-flying plans.
The stock has not exactly dazzled the market since the IPO.
I am now seriously having a very hard time understanding why Europe is not preparing for war?
Full understanding that defense personnel have lived in peace their entire professional lives and neither have their mentors ever seen war. They are lazy dinosaurs who have managed a privilege in the worst possible way.
Also full understanding that politics is complicated even though V now categorically denies that they sent hate mail to child murderers in Israeli prisons, so that might not be true.
And that the arms industry is roughly like NCC and PEAB and that everyone wants to sell the weapons they have on the lines now.
All the spectacular predictions that have drawn thousands of laughing emojis are fulfilled in streamlined jumps over time and the only thing really left is whether there will be war or not.
The hope rests on Japan or South Korea manufacturing weapons for us – what has happened to our proud colonial history where we devastated the world, 30 million Indians died of starvation for nothing?
We are now in a prolonged 1939 because Ukraine refuses to give up but now Europe has actually managed to hit the ground when the supplies started to run out.
It was the same during the Cold War – in 1980 when the submarine violations began we had nothing but by the end of the 80s the world’s best anti-submarine weapons. The difference was that in 4.5 years we had already built ourselves out of the swamp.
Back then it was a bit new and we stood there on land with a hundred brigades that couldn’t swim but we solved it.
—
Our commitment today is not the Swedish archipelago – we have all kinds of agreements where the whole EU shall be protected.
Between 2022 and today, the Baltic states’ defense capability has thus decreased sharply, we have not built static defense, we have not prepared at all for drone warfare which is the new black, we have few own medium-range missiles for retaliation and no own long-range missiles.
We also do not have our own drone weapon and we cannot fight on today’s battlefield – we showed that during Aurora 2026.
Now apparently we also do not have interceptors against ballistic missiles – will, as said, look into that.
Our electricity supply today depends on LNG from the USA – serfs. With the delicate difference that if Russia can just cut our submarine cables sometime Scandinavia will bathe in cheap electricity of course so that applies to continental Europe.
We still import 100% of many important raw materials and equipment for our production and if that is cut off production stops in all sorts of things. China has just done that by the way.
—
At the same time as we heap sanctions on Russia and China, board their ships, fully support Ukraine and impose sanctions on China.
When you do that – WHICH WE SHALL DO – then you must also be prepared for the backlash.
And we are not, not in the least.
If anyone can prove that I am wrong I am open to facts beyond baseless accusations of fake pictures.
Poland recently also failed to shoot down a missile that glided 100km into their country.
They failed to shoot down 23 cruise missiles last year.
However, everyone has already promised that everything will be shot down – Russia is taking notes.
Yes, Ukraine is performing miracles on the battlefield and has fundamentally built up its resilience, but they have Russia, China, and North Korea against them.
The North Koreans have already fought inside Ukraine by the way, but I think you already knew that?
We in Europe are supposed to back them up with equipment and finance their sacrifice, but we can’t even manage that.
You can be sure that Russia will use ballistic missiles to knock out all electricity supply this autumn, and this is a country that has just come out of that.
They have SCREAMED since 2022 to be allowed to produce under license or otherwise gain ongoing access to our production, but we refuse.
Is it the case that only SAM/PT is functioning antiballistically?
I think MXT discussed above aster and that the production rate is worse than in the USA by a few hundred per year?
Until 2022 there were maybe 1500 interceptors in stock and since 2026 about 250/year are produced?
Ukraine has had them but I don’t know how many they have shot down?
Quite likely what has now happened is that we have entered the heap of interceptors intended for national defense and that the Chiefs of Defense around Europe have put their foot down.
—
NASAMS does not work.
—
IRIS-T does not work.
—
Arrow 3, it seems Germany will get license production but probably a very small number so far?
—
Iskander is what UA has difficulty shooting down without the interceptors?
70/month is the production rate and had a few thousand in stock by summer 2025.
Zircon is supposed to be tricky as well, RU produces 30/year and has a few hundred in stock.
—
An important point, in the Gulf they shot up to 8 patriots per incoming threat.
Ukraine has probably learned to conserve seriously.
So for Europe maybe 1:3 applies, we need 3 times the interceptors?
Then we need them in the right place as well of course – every country in Europe with air defense obviously wants to protect its own industry and capitals so it becomes significantly thinner the further east we go evidently since we do not send to Ukraine.
—
Does anyone have the list of what they shot down in the last two operations, I think you have it MXT?
Is it more than Zircon and Iskander they have difficulty with?
—
You can forget Oreshnik, RU has a few.
Iskander they have now loaded with several warheads.
North Korea is not a big producer but if they get in hundreds they use in Ukraine they can put their own on hold.
Iran – I think Iran probably needs what they have now 😀
—
Nothing new otherwise, it was already urgent last winter.
https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/eng/news/2026/01/30/7230134/
It is probably utterly unacceptable that Europe’s countries have not been able to establish a proper stockpile of potent interceptors over these years. You can’t talk away a missile when it comes in an elliptical trajectory.
It feels like the USA has been really wasteful with missiles; Patriot missiles are proven to be the most effective for ballistic missiles, so it’s not something you should waste on drones. Has Hegseth fired the person who manages the Excel list for the missile stockpile?
It might feel manly and full of testosterone to launch big missiles at everything that flies, but they should have some understanding of what is sustainable.
Sometimes you do wonder if Krasnov actually has a mission 😀
One thing that flew by recently was that Sirskyi had not prioritized taking out the missile platforms, I don’t know if that’s true.
Until sometime in 2024, Ukraine was not allowed to do that by the US and Europe – it was a red card if you remember.
You might think that UA would just blast them away but apparently it’s not as simple as we keyboard warriors think.
https://ukranews.com/en/news/1167042-ukraine-knows-the-locations-of-russian-ballistic-missile-systems-but-cannot-strike-them-according
A stickler for order would like to add here that if Ukraine had been allowed to take out all the platforms early on, they would not have been a threat to Europe.
Now that Europe is ready to take the fight and Trump/USA are finally visible, we can defend ourselves instead 😀
It is self-destructive behavior 😡
Interesting about Ceuta. Spain has another exclave in North Africa. Melilla. But that city is basically on Moroccan territory. Morocco will prevent the same from happening there since Morocco wants to have good relations with the West.
Strange, by the way, that Spain wants to keep these two cities in North Africa at all costs while at the same time making tough demands on GB to leave Gibraltar.
Spain also had Spanish Sahara, now the problematic area Western Sahara. The capital at that time was called Villa Cisneros and in my opinion, that city is the world’s second most fly-infested. We were there twice and loaded fish for Japan.
The world’s by far most fly-infested, in my opinion, is Djibouti. But there may be even worse. “If you hear something buzzing in the air…”
Yes, maybe the easiest thing would be if they gave up those islands.
… “maybe it’s the lord of the flies who cheers”.
(Yes, I know, that was really bad..)
Hysterically funny 🤣🤣
If Dengamle had been here, he would have laughed until his beard fell off.
I probably feel a bit like MTX that maybe it is time for these enclaves to be transferred to Morocco. But that should of course be discussed, and Spain compensated in some way, and the Spaniards living there should naturally be guaranteed security.
I remember a coworker said about Djibouti that it was oppressively hot, and one day when they had promised windy weather and he thought the heat would ease, the wind blew from the Sahara, so the wind was about as cool as a blowtorch. Then, when the diesel power plant he was there to commission was finished, they were visited by a happy president who shook their hands and gave them back their passports.
haha Proxima, I steal that as a marker of a city’s quality 😀
I have long used what the dog leaves behind, lots of that on the ground – bad city.
No such thing on the ground – good city.
Doesn’t work in MENA though because they don’t have dogs.
Zelensky has suggested that it is political pressure – I think the finger was pointed towards the USA?
https://ua.news/en/war-vs-rf/zelenskii-zaiaviv-shcho-ukrayini-mozhut-obmezhuvati-ppo-cherez-politichni-motivi
In 2026 they have received 30% of the interceptors compared to the previous year, it is also not clear here whether it is PATRIOT PAC3 or everything that is meant?
It seems like NASAMS is continuous and they shoot down everything except the ballistic missiles.
—
Aster started being manufactured in 1997 so there is really no valid reason why we in Europe have not taken this seriously.
Russian missiles are also becoming more effective with anti-interceptor defense and then multiple warheads so over time they probably become harder to shoot down but a good rule of thumb must still be that you have more interceptors than the opponent has missiles?
There is another side to this coin as well – recently RU shot down 5 flamingos before they reached their targets, and RU is working together with China to deploy their AI interceptor drones, fire and forget.
Ukraine has a 95% kill rate on incoming drones, with interceptors accounting for perhaps 80% of that, but RU has so far not managed to come anywhere close.
“Medium-range drones” that operate between 50km – 250km have been countered by RU with mobile rocket launcher groups, and it’s going so-so – you also have to be able to hit, and there the handling is 100%.
Since the interceptor drones have almost completely replaced everything else, RU will be able to protect themselves once they get their defense up. They launch a small drone towards the incoming threat which then takes care of the rest, so the handling becomes secondary.
RU is also trying to deploy their own “AI medium-range drones,” loitering that searches for targets, fire and forget, which then patrol the area.
When they arrive, they also have a fire control zone just like UA has now.
—
China is working in the shadows together with Russia on this, and historically in the war, an advantage in capability has lasted +6 months, so sometime around 2027 that should be in place?
Europe isn’t even a topic to discuss in terms of this at all, but in Ukraine it will probably look like this?
Something to take away – a ceasefire now only gives RU the chance to catch up.
The world would need to take a much tougher stance on China with sanctions. The Russians are not as stupid as we often portray them, but without China’s help, they would not manage when it comes to electronics and drones.
China hides behind dual use, and of course that works perfectly because we allow them to do so. Virtually everything related to drones and even AI can be classified as such.
We are stopping eating noodles 😡✊✊💥
The problem right now is that we have started toughening up but the enemy is ahead of the curve.
I am more or less terrified that this will make us start to back down but so far it looks okay.
One thing we should have done yesterday is to stop all Chinese products because they have too large a CO2 footprint and take the hit.
It hurts them the most.
You are absolutely right 👍👍
May I quote you in the Financial Times?
They live off us buying from them, so in that way we can probably influence them.
Besides, they will probably soon surpass us in terms of CO2 footprint as well. No one builds nuclear power like the Chinese, and hydro power, and wind and solar.
Then we must be quick to punish them for the CO2 footprint so they don’t have time to improve 👍👍
Regarding Xi Jinping, he dismissed the entire top military leadership a few years ago.
Add to that that China is developing AI-controlled hunting drone swarms.
And before anyone starts talking about ethics – China doesn’t have that.
We worry about Shaheds and other missiles, how do we defend ourselves against smaller drones in swarms, where each drone carries 10-50g of explosives?
“Yes, but that’s not much”… then please start doing some calculations:
10 drones x 10-50g = 100-500g of explosives, place them right and in groups and then it becomes something to talk about…
We have no control over what kind of drones criminals or even Chinese/Russian diplomats buy and even less what they later receive in their diplomatic mail.
“That’s speculation and scaremongering!”.
Oh really. The reality is worse.
Yep, those have been up a few times.
For example, they have a pickup with a large cassette on it that launches 48 AI Loitering drones with a few hours of battery life.
Then lift off the cassette and put on a new one.
—
They are also working on what you mentioned, bigger drones that release a cloud of mini drones and THEY are impossible to try to shoot down.
—
They also damn well have robot dogs and humanoid robots with weapons that they are trying to get to walk straight.
Yes, my nightmare scenario is the cargo ship from the shadow fleet that opens its hatches outside Helsinki, Tallinn, Riga, Stockholm, Copenhagen… etc., and releases 5000 small drones with small explosive charges that autonomously fly in like a cloud over the city and attack predetermined targets, or just heat sources at street level.
Johan, maybe you should compile all of today’s (very good) posts into an opinion piece in all of our biggest newspapers, people need to become more aware of what the situation looks like and what we can expect if nothing happens very quickly.
Unfortunately, there is a risk that people will think “look at that tin foil hat, haha”…
But, maybe … if you manage to wake a few, then at least there will be a few more…
I’m ahead of my time so no one wants to publish what I write 😀
Then when it happens, the established ones run ahead and always knew what was going to happen, so I don’t get space either.
Van Gogh painted 600 paintings and sold 1 during his lifetime – I am Van Gogh.
You paint realistic pictures… people want cute crying children and lambs in the sunset…
This is what I don’t understand, the clergy became authorities on constantly describing purgatory in the worst possible way but nowadays you have to have cotton candy pink to even be taken seriously.
Times really change 😭
Yes, however, the priesthood also had the capacity and organization to burn people alive if they were disobedient…
I think you lack that violent power… (for better or worse).
The Oracle in the Caribbean 🙂
They will be my signature 👍
Off-Topic, the Iran war.
“The oil price rises about 4 percent on Thursday evening after Iranian state media reported that Israel, the USA, and other countries that have ‘harmed’ the country will be prevented from using the Hormuz Strait. This is reported by Bloomberg. Iran has said that an agreement with Oman will soon be presented and that Washington has not been part of it, the news agency further writes. US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday evening that talks with Iran are ongoing and that ‘we’ll see what happens.'”
https://omni.se/a/ExB0wA
“The USA faces a difficult choice, and President Donald Trump has no easy way to end the Iran war, which has lasted much longer than he had anticipated, experts tell Reuters. Aaron David Miller, who has negotiated Middle East issues for both Republican and Democratic administrations, sees three possible paths. Trump can accept an agreement between Iran and Oman, thereby giving Tehran increased control over the Strait of Hormuz. That would represent Iran’s biggest victory during the entire war. He can also order new bombings, with unclear effect and risk of a weak Republican outcome in the midterm elections. Or he can hold on to the current deadlock, with no clear path to an end to the unpopular war. – It is a menu of bad options.”
https://omni.se/a/Bx673l
Hm, as before it seems that the USA is discussing with Iran’s “shadow government”
Iran’s real leadership is talking with Oman
There will be a post tomorrow about Iran.
Yep, Trump is probably in deep trouble now 😀
You can skip Bible study tomorrow MXT, it’s going to be Iran and Leipzig 😀
🙏
Now that I am a bit calmer after all the baseless accusations, have you thought about this –
Russia has played its cards and is having a tough time.
The USA has played its cards and is having a tough time.
China has not made its move.
Europe has not made its move.
The last two are deeply involved in the UA war but a peace economy and are not burning pesetas like a bonfire yet.
It wouldn’t be so bad if China tries with Taiwan and goes there too, then we can stand there and laugh at everyone else.
** In this video, I discuss how modern warfare is changing and why Europe may not be ready for the next high-intensity conflict against a peer state. Inspired by Anders Puck Nielsen’s latest analysis, I look at the shift towards attrition from day one. I discuss the need for more mass, more reserves, more air defense, more deep strike capability, more unmanned systems, greater adaptability, and faster production. I also share my own views on how European nations should prepare for the initial shock of a peer war and the prolonged fight that follows..**
https://youtu.be/6YWkeueYQYU?is=uIvCwgPbHFddJmxm
Germany is being punished by Russia for even mentioning Taurus by name, it seems?
It wasn’t enough to just not send Taurus.
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4151843-russians-attack-german-cargo-ship-in-black-sea-with-drones.html
There you see, Russia has gone after every German thing they can find to make them back down.
They have a presidential election in January.
And other elections in September.
AfD is doing very well.
To me, it is VERY clear that everyone sending units to the Baltics gets Russian subversive activities upon them.
Canada, Spain, and Germany.
The president of Germany, whose political role is quite limited, is not elected by general elections but directly by the Bundestag.
The next parliamentary election in Germany will not take place until 2029.
I believe the Russian is starting to feel increasingly pressured, and when the cold sweat begins to creep in, they lash out wildly at everything and everyone.
I suspect that the Kremlin has begun to realize that it is losing its grip on Germany completely. Therefore, they are increasing hybrid activity and trying to raise the tone without it seeming to have much effect. Increasing the activity increases the risk that the AfD and others will feel increasingly compelled to distance themselves from the Kremlin.
If they continue with more kinetic hybrid activities, it will probably bring out the Prussian in the German, and then the mood in the bunker under the Kremlin will likely get even worse.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2027_German_presidential_election
Yes, I just saw that what is in September was not that much and that the big one is 2029 😀
Read a little quickly.
Isn’t Germany a coalition of some parties and currently having some problems with its industrial base?
So far, they have probably kept the AfD at bay on all issues?
Well, Russia has indeed gone after most things there in the Black Sea after Ukraine attacked over 100 Russian ships.
Well, they also put robots in two German companies’ warehouses 😀
So there were 3 German targets in total.
Is it probably up and running now?
❗️A large group of Ukrainian kamikaze drones has just flown off to attack Russian regions and temporarily occupied territories.
Thank you. Feels good.
The Spanish far-left party in government has proposed that Spain withdraw its troops from the Baltics in response to the complaint letter from 22 EU countries.
Vox, which is the second government party, wants to withdraw them and send them to Ceuta.
AfD is also high on the list in Germany, by the way.
I don’t think I’m very wrong when I say that this is connected – Putin wants to remove all international troops from the Baltics and is working across the board to make it happen.
Actually, no one else has really made that connection yet – I mostly just check every week to see if anything happens because the fewer troops there are in the Baltics, the less Putin needs to overrun the Baltics.
https://www.democrata.es/en/politics/enrique-santiago-proposes-to-withdraw-spanish-troops-from-eastern-europe-due-to-the-lack-of-support-in-the-ceuta-crisis/
It was really something how “everyone” was eager to pull units from the Baltics…
As you say, fewer units – simpler SMO…
One idea behind being able to squeeze the Kremlin’s henchmen within European politics might be that the intelligence services of various EU countries can dig up dirt on the representatives of these foreign parties, and if they find nothing, they just fabricate and plant it…….
I have important information about Göran Greider 👋
He is completely harmless compared to what AfS is up to.
I was previously on YouTube watching SkyNews and Sean Bell’s analysis regarding Ukraine.
The comment section was completely flooded with Russian bots on a level I haven’t seen since 2022-2023. I perceive this increased activity as an expression of frustration and a good deal of desperation.
Kremlin trolls, bots, and real people seem to be significantly increased everywhere. They are obviously under extreme pressure.
Good morning!
Glory to Ukraine