Sitting and observing the overall situation regarding Iran, I am increasingly surprised. There is an enormous amount of disinformation, but I try to stick to things that are somewhat confirmed, unlike Ukraine where I amplified every piece of good news as absolute truth for four years.
When two countries go to war in the way they have now, both believe they can inflict damage on the opponent and at least not have to back down. Ukraine was attacked despite attempts to de-escalate, so it’s different, but you have read official Iranian statements over the past year threatening everyone with devastation, fire, and death, not necessarily in that order.
Now, the USA + Israel are at war with Iran, and the laws of war apply – don’t forget that when everyone is talking about war crimes and international law.
USA and Israel made an initial move against Iran in June 2025, where they took out the air defense and were able to target the objectives they intended – both parties learned about each other’s capabilities.
Since sometime in the fall of 2025, China has had an air bridge to Iran, and rumors say LV, radar, and robots. Iran could assess the capabilities of the USA and Israel, but the USA doesn’t know what China has delivered, and probably China has tried to deliver what they thought would work well based on what they saw in June 2025.
I must remind here that there are Manpads, and we have seen Israel dropping dumb bombs directly over targets in western Iran that should be taken out with Manpads – advanced radar is not needed for that, you spot an aircraft, aim your Manpad, and press the red button when it beeps.
Iran has been one of the central actors on the dark side along with China and Russia, and we can probably assume that China has zero interest in seeing Iran fall in the way we are now witnessing.
Presumably, China hoped that the USA would suffer significant losses and retract – that seems like a reasonable assumption?
China and Russia cannot fight in Iran without the war spreading, and training top pilots takes too long, but what they might be able to do is man radar, LV, and robot platforms. It has worked for four years in Russia, so it’s worth a try?
What they definitely do continuously, especially China, is provide target information to Iran – satellite and radar. China has several ships from its fleet in the waters around Iran, providing target data to the Iranian navy and land-based anti-ship missile batteries – 100% guaranteed.
USA/Israel have their SEAD, which includes F-15 with electronic warfare, over Venezuela there was an EMP, F-22 raptor, and F-35, which are not supposed to be visible on radar, but China claims that their radar sees them as a lit Christmas tree in December darkness.
(IRGC has already filed a formal complaint with the Chinese manufacturer for false advertising)
In addition, the USA has its B-2 bombers that fly invisibly, and various robot platforms, probably also land-based. I have seen a film of HIMARS being fired.
Israel’s capabilities are added to this, and they are well prepared to take slightly greater risks than the USA.
It seems clear that a significant part of Iran’s air defense was taken out in the first days, and the Iranian navy has lost 20 ships, including a submarine.
USA has not engaged Russian or Chinese ships, which have also not engaged US ships, and now the acute, messy, and most sensitive phase is over, where a mistake could have led to such actions.
Let’s step back a bit to the Houthis and the Red Sea – with Iran’s help, they targeted 300 civilian ships, sinking several, and hitting more than one military vessel, which then left the area.
Starting from there – take a look at the map to see where Yemen, Iran, Russia, and China are located. Russia and China must have flown in an enormous amount of robots, drones, and LV to them, but we haven’t heard anything from there, even though they are within shooting distance of the area south of Iran where part of the US fleet is located.
Here is the Iranian navy, by the way.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Republic_of_Iran_Navy
Several ships that were still in port were targeted a few days ago.
On February 26, the 5th fleet left its base in Bahrain and set sail. Below are my observations (I will come back later with an alternative, but this is my main line) –
1.
Iran missed a first strike with land-based anti-ship missiles from Yemen/Iran and its navy – they let the USA strike first.
The 5th Fleet was docked until February 26, 2026, as big fat targets with fixed coordinates, and evidently, Iranian drones and robots have penetrated the air defense in MENA in large numbers.
My follow-up question then becomes the following – if I could figure out that the USA would attack through the aerial refueling planes, F-22, and SEAD F-15 that were moved forward, how could Iran, China, and Russia not come to the same conclusion and then decide that Iran strikes first as a preventive measure?
Now, the fleet seems to be largely disabled, except for patrol boats and a bunch of mini-submarines – the capability is completely neutralized.
2.
As far as I know, Iran has numerous terrorist cells in Europe and has paid gangs and criminal clans in Sweden for acts of violence.
How is it even possible that they couldn’t have many criminals with Manpads at transit bases in Europe?
How is it even possible that they couldn’t have many criminals with drones at transit bases in Europe where the aerial refueling planes, F-22, F-35, and a lot of ammunition depots were neatly lined up with 5m spacing for reloading?
And take out the aerial refueling planes and the critical US capabilities before they flew towards MENA?
This was an opportunity to try to decimate the US capability that won’t come back before Russia or China go to war with the USA.
Even though Russia has already carried out an obscene amount of sabotage and drone overflights during 2024-2024, so it’s hard to keep track.
This is all before February 28, 2026, which marks the beginning of the war, and by then, Iran had the opportunity for a first strike.
After February 28, Iran’s air defense was immediately targeted, as I understand it, and Iran immediately began a retaliation on February 28 with robots and drones against 10 surrounding countries in MENA. A mix of military targets, civilian targets, infrastructure, and oil installations, and Jocke at johanno1.se is sitting in his bathtub in Abu Dhabi providing live reports between the strikes if you missed it.
On the first day, more than 500 robots, and on the fifth day, more than 50, the total number of robots and drones Iran is firing now has decreased by 90% since the start of the war.
What the USA has is what we have seen in Ukraine with a digital battlefield and “Uber for artillery,” all different platforms for indirect fire are on patrol, and the USA has all kinds of information gatherers, such as drones and satellites with infrared cameras that see an Iranian robot launch as an unmistakable flash of light, and within a minute of launch, a robot is in the target.
The USA also has counter-battery radar similar to Arthur that we have in Sweden but at a much higher level, and their AWACS together with the fleet.
If one dares to make a guess, the 90% decline is directly related to the number of knocked-out launchers.
This is a delicate balance, and in June 2025, Israel’s Iron-Shield began to buckle considerably, an air defense system is only worth its name as long as there is ammunition.
Evidently, no country in the world has learned the lesson from Ukraine, as they shoot down drones with Patriots, and half of MENA has tried calling Zelensky and begging for help.
How the West couldn’t prepare for something we KNOW Iran and China now have is strange, but that’s how it is.
Round 2 in the air war – we can expect Iran to have saved capabilities to rain down over MENA when their air defense runs out of ammunition.
This is offset by the fact that the USA+Israel have total air superiority and can target objectives arbitrarily across the whole of Iran – whack-a-mole.
It’s highly likely that there will be continued terrorist bombings in MENA.
You don’t win a war by bombing the enemy, that’s an old story.
If Iran now bungled a first strike and has had its missile platforms severely decimated, then they have handled everything else just as strangely.
Yes, apparently Israel has been up to a lot (whether it’s true or fiction, I don’t know, but after Hezbollah and the bounty hunters, I’m receptive to most things) –
-they have hacked Iran’s surveillance system for citizens and used it for surveillance against the Iranian elite.
-they have had infiltrators everywhere, the rumor has it that Iran’s counterintelligence was led by Israeli spies.
-some IRGC general has survived all assassination attempts, and now he was probably arrested when there was no more room for excuses.
-the rumor says that Israel infiltrated dentists, and it’s mostly the elite who can afford new teeth, so they had GPS in their new fancy teeth blinking on the screens at Mossad.
It seems clear that Israel has had almost total control over what the leadership is up to – immediately the entire leadership was taken out, and then when tiers 2 and 3 took over, they were also fought against.
But…
After the attacks started, the entire leadership met in a room Israel could take out, and when the next Ayatollah was to be chosen, the 80 highest religious leaders gathered in a regular large building that Israel immediately took out.
When Israel switched to targeting the IRGC and the police, they targeted several administrative buildings and bases full of IRGC personnel. Only now, after almost a week, have the IRGC and the police started regrouping to schools, daycares, and hospitals.
Hezbollah’s humiliating bounty hunter heist was in September 2024, and after the June 2025 attack, Iran had a massive purge in its ranks of Israeli spies.
I find it extremely difficult to understand how they could act so naively – that the entire defense force, IRGC, police, and leadership were not in war groups in the field surpasses my understanding.
This should have been done already at dusk, and there was no lack of warning.
Then, the entire leadership sitting in a location that the USA could effectively target a few days into the war is hard for me to grasp, especially since they tried it half a year ago, and Hezbollah is no more.
Below, it signals to me that the USA’s information situation is excellent – much like all the knocked-out higher staff positions for RU in Ukraine, where they hit staff meetings that regrouped once a day.
To summarize so far – Iran missed the chance for a first strike, their LV was immediately taken out, they have not managed to target any high-value American objectives, their leadership structure is under severe pressure, and the IRGC and the police have taken some hits but probably not enough.
I am actually more than surprised by this, but that’s the reality.
What are the thoughts of the USA and Iran regarding the continuation?
USA:
They will continue to target objectives unhindered, but there are fewer and fewer targets, and they cannot start bombing schools, hospitals, or daycares just because the IRGC is there – that would turn the rest of the world against them in a week.
It is crystal clear that they have focused on a popular revolution and armed minorities in western Iran in an attempt to rally them against the central authority. Israel has also shifted to targeting IRGC and police targets in those areas.
The Kurds were very peculiar, first throwing them under the bus in Rojava, then claiming they had gone on the offensive in Iran until the Kurds themselves denied it – at the moment, I don’t know what is true.
The USA has various influence operations in Iran together with Israel, where they take over TV and radio for revolutionary messages, and Israeli SOF are already in the country.
We know they have started arming citizens, Israel led citizen groups to IRGC weapon depots months ago.
Right now, it seems that western Iran is in trouble, freedom fighters are fighting.
And the IRGC is fleeing.
Here we are now, more or less, well, I thought the citizens would try to take over immediately, but we would have heard about it then. Some cities have fallen, but certainly not Tehran because the moment it happens, it would be cabled worldwide.
What the USA most wants to see now is the complete fall of the regime, and then they can fly in their politicians, and over time, there will be a pro-Western government. Many things can go wrong, but that’s probably what they have in mind.
Iran, what are they trying to come up with as they sit and sweat in the bunkers, waiting to die?
The obvious thing is to continue terrorist bombings in surrounding countries to destabilize them and put pressure on the USA to end the war. There are still many targets left, such as desalination plants for drinking water, LNG, and oil.
Right now, they are probably very eager for a ceasefire, and according to the USA (so some doubt on that), they have tried to stop the bloodshed already with thousands of contact attempts on WhatsApp, but the USA is completely stonewalling them.
What the regime absolutely does not want is a popular revolution because then all their security measures for themselves and their families will be gone.
It’s a bit like that staircase in the funhouse that goes in different directions where you end up hanging and screaming in the railing when they try to escape. Now they have also made enemies with the entire MENA in one sweep, so there are considerably fewer safe havens.
Leaving Iran also means that Shin Bet has a much easier time getting to them.
So, the number one priority is probably to try to cling to power if at all possible.
Therefore, we can expect more terrorist bombings of surrounding countries.
Iran also has tentacles in several surrounding countries – Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, and there they should activate everything they have.
They are driving popular opinion in Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi, and in Jordan, we have the Palestinians, so all these countries are at risk of uprisings and unrest.
The supreme religious leader of Iran has declared a holy Jihad against Israel and Jews worldwide this week before he is soon taken out by Israel, so the aversion and threat against Jews worldwide will deteriorate significantly.
If they feel they are not getting a ceasefire from the USA soon, they will definitely activate all terrorist cells, gangs, and criminal clans they can in Europe and the USA for violent and terror acts as spectacular as they can manage.
In several countries, they will try to override embassies with local talents.
Someone told me that they never dare to close the Strait of Hormuz when I suggested it, so wrong again. Disturbing the global markets and trying to force price shocks is a sure bet.
Full asymmetric warfare, and if they had nuclear weapons, they would surely use them if needed – they are that type of dictatorship.
In summary, Iran has behaved just as poorly as Russia did on February 24, 2022, and considering their high arrogance, I am mildly surprised.
But there is an alternative explanation for this, that the regime is not as utterly incompetent as the Russians, but that the US technological superiority has been almost total, yet this does not explain the lack of a first strike that the Iranians have completely missed.
We know with some certainty that Israel has completely infiltrated Iran, so the leadership mostly feels like hunted animals; now they are announcing that retired officers must report for duty.
But the US’s ability to protect high-value military targets may have been so high that Iran has tried but not hit anything?
Here is someone suggesting that Skunk Works reluctantly released a laser after all.
After a long detour, this is where I wanted to get to as a prelude to the next post regarding the global situation.
Now China and the USA have tested their respective capabilities, and in the first week, it’s a formidable massacre where the USA has essentially not lost anything, and China has tried to provide high-tech defense to Iran in the hope that the USA would learn a lesson.
For example, the Iranian submarine could have launched torpedoes at US aircraft carriers before February 28, and as far as I know, they are not disrupted by EW?
The Chinese supersonic robots skimming the water surface would be impossible to escape, and so on endlessly up to the Chinese radar that detects the F35.
Iran is a country of 90 million, fully militarized, and with material support from Russia and China.
A naval operation is high-risk as an unfortunate hit can sink a large ship, resulting in bad publicity.
Iran also did not lack target acquisition after all their radars were knocked out because China provided it from ships and satellites.
The only conclusion I can draw so far is that China has realized that their technological platform is inferior.
Russia already knows that they are hopeless in the technology race, but probably they are not entirely pleased that the USA has gone to war – but they have their deal with Trump that they probably dare not deviate from too much now.
This will be the starting point for post two on the global situation.
This war that began on February 28 was preceded by both sides – where Iran and China stood together, believing they could inflict significant damage on the opponent.
Now, after a week, they have started to gather enough information to begin an evaluation, and then in the future, it will affect how they act as a country.
Forget that this was a ruse where China tricks the USA into thinking their technology is poor – this was a first beta test that all parties can back away from post-war if they wish.
Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!
Russian losses in Ukraine 2026-03-06
SLAVA UKRAINI
AFU reports:
136 combat clashes
75 aviation strikes
233 KAB
7,951 kamikaze drones
3,413 shells (63 from MLRS)
@jocke, where in Abu Dhabi are you? I am also here.
I never understood where the drone crashed yesterday, but you seemed to know where?
Living in the Raha beach area and saw it crash down near Yas Marina, from arm’s length distance from my balcony, kind of. A lot of police cars on site right after the crash to take care of it, they handle that part very efficiently here.
Between you and me then. Also heard the sirens.
@MXT may be able to provide contact information between us if you want to chat on whatsapp or signal?
I can arrange that if both of you are okay with it.
Jockesoft, is it okay for you if I email you and T23 your respective email addresses (the ones you used when registering here on the site)?
Yes, that would have been awesome. Thank you!
Good good 👍👍
N Slobozhansky-Kursk 3
S Slobozhansky 0
Kupyansk 1
Lyman 6↗️
Slovyansk 6
Kramatorsk 0
Kostjantynivka 19💥↗️
Pokrovsk 21💥
Oleksandrivskij 5
Huliaipole 28💥💥↗️
Orikhivsk 3
Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 1
Sum sectors 93↗️
Unlocalized 43
Total 136↗️
👍
Low amount of seizures?
The air raid siren just went off again and I jumped into the bathtub and held my breath. It’s different now than when it started on the 28th, back then the air raid siren came 5-10 minutes before the explosions, now the explosions come almost at the same time as the alarm. The rumor I heard is that Iran has run out of their old stuff and is now using newer and faster ones. Whether it’s true or not, I haven’t been able to confirm.
The attacks continue to be condemned from the UAE’s side:
https://www.khaleejtimes.com/world/mena/worldmenaus-iran-tensions-israel-strikes-tehran-live-updates-day-7#blogCard9e83b9c3-ec67-432d-9b4f-8fa78e4afb0c
The question is whether the cup will eventually run over for the UAE and they actually respond militarily, when I’m lying in my plastic bathtub, I really hope that this does not escalate even further but that it can calm down in the region.
Israel and the USA seem to be increasing pressure on Iran anyway:
https://www.khaleejtimes.com/world/mena/worldmenaus-iran-tensions-israel-strikes-tehran-live-updates-day-7#blogCard80dafe57-38a6-40aa-bb4a-c87b95c668b3
A lot is being fired towards the country:
But credit to the UAE’s defense for handling it effectively, but I hope they can get some support from Ukraine to deal with all these Shaheders.
Sounds scary, hope you manage.
You can see the bangs as a warning for the alarm.
Thank you for the report from the bathtub, hope everything is going well.
So, Iran has more to offer. If they have run out of simpler materials and now switched to more modern stuff, one might assume that they should soon run out of that too.
Looks like a good job by the UAE air defense on par with the Ukrainian one on a good day. However, with many fired, even with a low percentage slipping through, it becomes a veritable threat. Scary that the alarms come so close to the explosions. Also clear that it’s not only military targets that are the goal. Which, if it wasn’t enough already, makes it strange if the UAE doesn’t respond. Then the question is whether Israel and the USA need further help in the attack on Iran or if it’s more effective for them to continue handling this on their own.
Yes, the proposal for tactics that has been presented is that the air defense shoots away its ammunition and then Iran uses better robots.
But…
usa+israel have already fought many of the underground facilities/bases where these robots are located.
I believe Johan writes faster than I speak, and with higher quality as well.
Thank you for the analysis, interesting.
I am worried that Trump will declare victory and focus on Cuba, threatening Zelensky instead.
I am also worried about that. If the regime gives in and promises to go along with Trump’s agreements, it will probably end there, unfortunately.
I believe that is the pronounced goal of Trump. He makes a move and then exits. The fact is that in Venezuela, this single move, which lasted less than 24 hours, has resulted in Russia losing all influence in the country and perhaps in the region, including losing all oil extraction contracts. The new regime is 90% of the previous one but releases regime opponents. The action is praised by the Nobel Peace Prize winner in 2025. Something has happened with a “small” (powerful limited short) effort. The USA does not intend to take over the leadership in Iran, but outsources this to the population and oppressed minorities like the Kurds.
This was pointed out in yesterday’s thread.
Is worried not that you are talking but that the US leaves before the regime has fallen.
I don’t think Israel accepts that and they probably have Trump’s Epstein videos 😀
Don’t think Trump will back down before he’s struck a deal of some kind, either with the mullah regime or the one that comes after.
He’s not doing it out of charity.
Maybe he does it as a distraction from Epstein and to show himself strong and decisive? Then he may very well settle for a quick peace, as long as he gets some half promise from the mullahs that can be sold as a victory.
Igen. Wag the dog
Thank you for the yellow wall!
When it comes to Iran’s terrorist cells and deep ties with criminal organizations, one starts to wonder if it maybe only existed in your head? 😉 They should have started to be activated by now.
One explanation could be that Iran’s leadership was taken out early before they could give orders for various terrorist attacks. Perhaps there are no longer any left of those who had the contacts with the cells, so no one knows how to contact them anymore. Communication should have been done with maximum security, so maybe it’s not just a matter of sending an SMS or tweeting instructions. Or maybe those who took over are so stressed that they haven’t even gotten that far.
If that’s the case, it should come fairly soon when they have organized themselves and managed to resume the connections.
Another explanation is that Western intelligence services simply have them under full control and have secretly already stopped any attempts.
Regardless, if we don’t see anything of it before this is over, one can probably conclude that they actually didn’t have any terrorist cells or connected criminal networks to any great extent.
The same may also apply to Russia. There have been some sabotage but still very little. It’s not difficult to cause chaos when it comes to electricity supply. Bring down a few power lines at the same time in different places, and the rest of the network will then shut down by itself.
There’s a lot circulating in Johan’s head, actually some good things too. But you may be right that the terrorist threat is exaggerated.
But I think it’s best to wait and see. Iran can wait a bit, either consciously or because they have a few other things to think about at the moment, like finding good places to hide.
Well, I do provide an explanation as to why maybe nothing has happened yet, I am almost as surprised as Johan.
Starting to regret that you got back the login to the page 😐
That Iran has infiltrated criminal clans including Sweden, I believe has been shown most likely, if not already confirmed. But that they would participate in an Iranian first strike I find less likely. Rather, the purpose has been a long-term undermining of societies in the West. On the other hand, we have seen actual terrorist threats from criminal gangs, such as when a Swedish gang criminal went to Copenhagen to carry out an act against an Israeli target.
“The attack on the Israeli embassy in Copenhagen is believed to be linked to the war in Gaza and gang crime, where the internationally wanted Rava Majid’s Foxtrot network, according to the police, has been tasked by the Iranian regime to carry out acts against Israeli interests. One of the arrested Swedes is also suspected of firing shots at the embassy in Stockholm a few days before the incident in Copenhagen.”
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/tva-svenskar-terroratalade-i-danmark
Johan is not completely off base.
Additional: that Iran’s first strike capability was eliminated with a first strike against the leadership is something I agree with. This may have included leadership/handling/activation of terror cells. That is, decisions at the leadership level were required, but were taken out.
Well, it would be strange if they didn’t exist at all, but one would think that there should never have been a better time than now to activate them.
Or one could save them as a last resort, for example if the USA and Israel successfully deploy ground troops.
If one saves for too long and the Iranian regime has no return in sight, who has an interest in such a deed if not ideologically convinced of the excellence of the terrorist deed? There are certainly such cells, which are independent of support and financing, but if we look at criminal gangs, it is probably money rather than ideology that drives them?
It must happen while one still believes that they can turn the war, of course.
They are already bombing indiscriminately and the reason should be to create chaos and to get the world opinion to try to stop the war when everyone starts to think that it costs too much. So, they risk turning several countries against them, but have still chosen that tactic.
Extensive terrorist attacks could have such an effect and make world leaders try to put pressure on the USA to end quickly and sit down to negotiate.
Part of the mullahs’ power is probably based on having many religious extremists with them, and the smoldering hatred of the USA can probably grow strong among many of them, even around the world.
I agree that criminals are, of course, driven by money, but the mullahs have probably acquired a large treasure chest during all the years they have been in power.
Maybe it’s so simple that no one manages to access their bank accounts now that they are dead, so they have nothing to pay with…
First strike. Is it documented that the attack on Iran occurred before the leadership was taken out? Otherwise, could it have been that the elimination of the leadership constituted the first strike in the war? That there was such secure information that the leadership was/would gather and therefore constituted part of the American/Israeli first strike. And the explanation for why Iran did not strike first from Yemen, etc.? In fact, Israel and the USA deliberately disrupted all communications (reported) to prevent the leadership from gathering remotely and then waited until the leadership was finally vulnerable. They based their entire attack on this likely event? By eliminating the leadership, they deprived Iran of a large part of its initiative.
This is my picture too. Can’t find the link now, but it was reported a few days ago that the USA/Israel struck earlier than planned and also during the day because the opportunity arose, i.e. that the Iranian leadership gathered and perhaps mainly that they got a bead on Khomeini.
So it could be, I don’t have any direct knowledge if it was actually the first thing done, but I don’t think it was the first thing reported on in any case.
Perhaps one also hoped for a quick surrender when it was shown that one could relatively easily access and knock out the leadership.
Speaking of avoiding attacking schools. We have probably learned from the war in Ukraine that it doesn’t lead to any consequences other than condemnations.
First, it was probably CNN, if I remember correctly, that examined photos, but it was denied that it was true, but now it seems that it may be correct after all.
But it doesn’t matter for the reactions of the world, one dares not do anything when Russia attacks schools, and one will not dare to do anything if it turns out that the USA did it.
“It was likely the USA behind the attack that killed over 150 students at a girls’ school in Minab in southern Iran on Saturday. This is reported by two sources with insight into the ongoing investigation to Reuters.
Even the New York Times, which has conducted its own analysis based on satellite images, material from social media, and verified photos, has come to the same conclusion. According to the newspaper, the school was hit when the USA attacked a nearby naval base belonging to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.
The White House has previously stated that the incident is under investigation. According to Reuters, it is unclear when the investigation will be fully completed. Israel claims not to have carried out any attack in the area.”
https://omni.se/kallor-usa-sannolikt-bakom-attack-mot-flickskolan/a/e7JVnM
Missing a target and accidentally hitting a school wouldn’t be unusual, but I find it hard to believe that they would have managed to hit 20 schools and 10 hospitals?
It could of course be debris from shot-down missiles, etc. but if they were direct hits, it would be a huge failure for the USA and Israel’s accuracy.
“A school near a military base in Minab in southern Iran seems to have been hit several times since the USA and Israel began their attacks. Satellite images reviewed by the BBC show extensive damage to both the school and the nearby base, which belongs to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. According to Iranian reports, at least 168 children were killed at the school.
Iran accuses the USA and Israel of the attack, but both countries deny responsibility. US Defense Minister Pete Hegseth told the BBC that the incident is being investigated and that the country “never targets civilian sites”. A source familiar with the investigation told Reuters that there are strong indications of a US attack behind it, but no final conclusion has been reached yet.
Even an analysis by the New York Times points to the school being hit in a US attack.
Israel claims not to have carried out any attack in the area.
According to Unicef, at least 180 children have been killed in Iran during the war, reports TT. The UN agency also states that at least 20 schools and ten hospitals have been hit in attacks since the conflict began.”
https://omni.se/bbc-skola-i-iran-tycks-ha-traffats-flera-ganger/a/8pJyXA
Mike Pompeo 🐘 🇺🇸: ”It’s no coincidence that Ukraine has been under assault from Iranian drones for years.
This is bigger than just the Iranian regime. We are on the precipice of delivering a serious blow to the interconnected authoritarian axis of Russia, China and Iran.”
Comment on (x) to article in WSJ: Zelensky Says U.S., Allies Want Ukraine’s Help to Stop Iranian Drones
Off-Topic, The war against Iran doesn’t seem to help when it comes to Epstein.
Immediately, they start undermining the credibility of the witness. I can understand that it seems like there are few from that time who want to come forward. Partly because it was a long time ago and perhaps they have managed to put it behind them, and partly because they know they will be fiercely attacked by those they point out and their supporters.
“The US Department of Justice has released documents from the Epstein investigation containing allegations against Donald Trump, several media outlets report. The documents include a 2019 interview with a woman who claimed that in the 1980s, when she was between 13 and 15 years old, Trump tried to force her to perform oral sex on him after being introduced by Jeffrey Epstein.
White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt calls the allegations “completely baseless” and says the woman is “sadly disturbed, with an extensive criminal background,” according to Politico.
The site points out that Trump has been suspected of some crimes during the Epstein investigation and that there is no evidence of his involvement in Epstein’s sex crimes.”
https://omni.se/sexanklagelser-mot-trump-i-nya-epsteindokument/a/3pEnyv
Iran has not only missed in its attacks.
“Several radar installations that are important for the American missile defense in the Middle East appear to have been hit by Iranian attacks, according to satellite images analyzed by CNN.
Images from a base in Jordan appear to show that the radar systems placed there have been destroyed. If the attacks on similar facilities in the United Arab Emirates have been equally successful, CNN cannot say for certain based on the satellite images.
N.R. Jenzen-Jones, an expert on military equipment at the think tank Armament Research Services, tells CNN that this is an “incredibly expensive system.”
– The loss of just one radar of this type would be operationally significant. Probably, a replacement unit will now have to be moved from another location, which will require time and effort.
According to information from the US Department of Defense, each radar installation of the type in question costs almost five billion Swedish kronor.”
https://omni.se/cnn-iran-tycks-ha-slagit-ut-amerikanska-radarsystem/a/BxWpav
Having a hard time seeing how good it is to have a fixed radar installation in today’s very dynamic strategies. Talk about a sitting duck.
At least the UAE has other good systems that a Swede can feel proud of:
https://www.saab.com/newsroom/press-releases/2024/saab-delivers-fifth-globaleye-to-the-united-arab-emirates
The most sensitive radar stations are probably too large to be moved. They are not small devices.
But I agree, a mobile network of smaller ones should work almost as well. At least in the vicinity.
👍 for SAAB ✊
The loss of just one radar of this type would be operationally significant. Probably, a replacement unit will now have to be moved from another location, which will require time and effort.
Interesting that this doesn’t seem to apply when Ukraine bombs facilities at ryz, then it hardly seems to matter. Is it because ryz has so many more overlapping systems?
Ukraine was not allowed to fight them very much longer, probably until 2023.
Was it not until 2024 that they started with robot silos, some giant radars, and AWACS?
“Hizbollah urges all Israelis living within five kilometers of the border with Lebanon to leave their homes, reports Reuters.
“Your military aggression against Lebanon’s sovereignty, the destruction of civil infrastructure, and the ongoing displacement campaign will not go unanswered,” writes Hizbollah.
For several days, Israel has been attacking targets in Lebanon, while Hizbollah has been shelling Israel.
Thousands of people have left Beirut following an earlier Israeli call to evacuate the area.”
https://omni.se/hizbollah-uppmanar-israeler-nara-gransen-att-evakuera/a/43oPga
“❗️On the night of March 6, 🇺🇦Ukrainian USF Army drones struck four 🇷🇺Russian air defense systems in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions: Buk, S-300V, Pantsir-S1, and Tor. The strike was carried out using FP-2 drones equipped with 60 kg and 100 kg warheads (units: 1st UAS Army and 414 Magyar Birds).”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mgewduph322j“
💥🔥✊👍
“Ukrainian drones have struck the 500kV Kubanskaya substation in Russia’s Krasnodar region, a key node in the power supply to the port of Taman. A fire is reported.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3mgevzlvfyk2q
“Också, 330 kV ‘Ostrovskaya’ understationen attackerades denna natt. Detta bevisas av brandpunkten på NASA-satelliten. En ombyggnad pågick vid understationen – där man ersatte de nuvarande transformatorerna vid 330 kV-ingångarna med moderna gasisolerade strömbrytare och nya transformatorer. Understationen fungerar som en elektricitetsfördelningscentral för norra och delvis västra delarna av Krim.”
https://bsky.app/profile/babayagafella.bsky.social/post/3mgevegifwk24
Film showing the effects of a 3-ton bomb.
“A Russian FAB-3000 hit what used to be a residential neighborhood in the Donetsk region.”
https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3mgevevbhms2o
“❗️Pilots of the 🇺🇦GUR special unit “Prymary” strike 🇷🇺Russian targets in the temporarily occupied Crimea:
▪️ Project 22460 patrol ship “Okhotnik” (Hunter);
▪️ Radar station from the S-400 complex;
▪️ “Forpost” UAV;
▪️ Project 1496M1 sea tugboat;”
“Russia sending election operatives to Hungary to prop up Orban, media reports”
It becomes more and more clear who he works for, but dictators always have each other’s backs, that’s how it always is.
“Kyiv Accuses Budapest of ‘Taking Hostages and Stealing Money’ After Bank Vehicles Seizure
As diplomatic tension flares, Kyiv now accuses Budapest of “taking hostages and stealing money” as seven state-owned bank employees were held by Hungary while moving cash between Austria and Ukraine.”
Austria-Hungary? Russia?
Maybe TheOld has something?
When it was no longer so important with the US sanctions against Russian oil to India.
“🇺🇸🇮🇳 The US has granted India a 30-day authorization to purchase Russian oil stuck on tankers at sea.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mgevqoqsos2q
“The USA temporarily eases sanctions against Russia to allow the sale of Russian oil currently stranded at sea to India, reports AFP. The exemption is valid until April 3 and only applies to Russian oil currently stranded at sea.
Finance Minister Scott Bessent says the decision aims to keep the oil flow going in the global market. He emphasizes that the measure is not expected to provide any significant economic benefit to Russia.
India is expected to benefit from the exemption as energy prices have risen sharply, according to the Financial Times.”
https://omni.se/usa-tillater-forsaljning-av-rysk-olja-till-indien-tillfalligt/a/9pz985
Yes, criticizing Russia alongside was a bit of Biden’s national sport.
Johan, by the way, you completely missed that there is no war between the USA and Iran.
Budanov accidentally sent the wrong message, so I got to take part in this conversation between Putin and Trump that Ukraine intercepted. By the way, Budanov realized his mistake and threatened to forbid the liquor store from selling Obolon to me if I revealed the content. I’m not going to let that stop me (there’s always Nemiroff, and he didn’t mention that).
Putin started the conversation enthusiastically, “Great of you to attack Iran just like we said, a perfect diversionary maneuver for both you and me. Now you’ve finally made everyone forget about Epstein. I will put all my best efforts into helping you win the midterm election.
Even regarding Ukraine, it’s successful, already noticing how the media is writing less and less about that war. It’s also perfect that all air defense is now being redirected to the countries around Iran, they did just as we planned and attacked everything and everyone. Now my nightly attacks will be even more successful. It is, I must admit, the only advantage we have against Ukraine.
Last but not least, the oil price! Have you seen how much it has risen? Wonderful. You did well, comrade!”
“Thank you, thank you! I am the best, aren’t I, perhaps the very best I know? Yes, except for you, Putin,” a visibly proud Trump replied.
“But you have made a big mistake!” Putin continued, suddenly with a reprimanding tone, and went on, “Haven’t you learned anything, you idiot, you can’t call it a war!”
“But it is a war?” Trump replied a bit defensively and completely puzzled.
“If you call it a war, you risk losing the support of the population, you must wrap it up and tone it down. Besides, you promised everyone before the election that all wars would end. By the way, why do you think I call it a Special Military Operation? You must do something about it immediately, no one must call it a war!” Putin replied irritably and ended with a deep sigh of resignation.
“Ok, ok, then I’ll call it SMO,” Trump replied.
“No, no, that’s too obvious, we can’t reveal how close we are. You must come up with another name! It doesn’t matter what it is, but don’t call it a war!” Putin replied and hung up.
I hope, I hope Putin didn’t hear my latest speech, or Hegseth’s thought Trump, before calling the White House press office and forbidding them to call it a war and asking them to spread the message to everyone in MAGA.
So now it’s not called a war but “Combat Operations”!
Or wait, “Strategic strikes” or was it “Strategic Battle Operations,” or “a Defensive Operation”?
It seemed like they couldn’t quite agree on what to call it, but it definitely is not a war!
haha 🤣🤣🤣
That Trump and Putin would have cooked this up and that Russia likes it, no way.
It’s a bit far-fetched but it’s not something we normally worry about here?
Remarkable that in the USA they are now imitating Russia and trying to avoid the word war. Putin tried it at some point, let’s see if Trump and Hegseth will now completely avoid mentioning war.
I am sure that they have regular contact, because Trump is following Putin’s playbook in many ways.
However, Trump has now made sure that Russia, in a way, has become dependent on the USA, as they have gone hard against many of Russia’s friends.
Services and counter-services, now India can buy Russian oil again, only the one that is stored at sea, it is said, but I don’t think it will be long before those ships are on their way into the Baltic Sea for refueling. We should put a stop to that.
“Russians urged to prepare for a 90s-style increase in utility tariffs In early 2026, Russian households faced an unprecedented rise in payments for housing and communal services.
However, another round of increases is expected in the fall due to annual indexation — as a result, by the end of the year, tariff increases could reach 30–35%, said Konstantin Krokhin, chairman of the Housing Union and a member of the Housing and Communal Services Committee of the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry. “In the 90s, tariffs rose by 30–35% annually, and we are gradually returning to this situation,” he explained.”
“Qatar warns that the war in the Middle East could force all Gulf countries to halt energy supplies within weeks. This could lead to sharp price increases and global disruptions, something that, according to Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi, could “cause the world’s economies to collapse.”
– If this continues, all exporters in the Gulf region will be forced to declare force majeure, he told the Financial Times.
He continues:
– If the war continues for a few weeks, global GDP growth will be affected. Energy prices will rise everywhere. There will be a shortage of certain goods and a chain reaction where factories cannot deliver.”
Wondering how they are thinking in China right now.
They certainly didn’t want to lose Iran as a supplier, and now, when Iran is under attack, they are behaving like a firework box someone threw a cigarette butt into, and can ensure that deliveries are stopped in large parts of the Middle East.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we see China helping the USA to put a stop to Iran’s fireworks soon, before they are completely without fossil fuel suppliers. Like how Russia was allied with the West during WW2.
Off-topic, IRan 🇮🇷
The newspaper Dagens Nyheter makes a point of several major democracies, “Here are five major democracies that are against Trump’s war on Iran”, are against Trump’s war on Iran.
Of these five, three are BRICS countries (one a founding member together with Russia and China, one a partner country to BRICS since 2024, and one a member country). Other members of BRICS include Iran. Others who have expressed interest in becoming members, candidates, are Venezuela.
Our mainstream media does not like that the USA appears as a winner under Trump. They do what they can to resist.
Yes, here I agree with you in that group – Iran is a good effort and Europe was completely incapable.
It clearly shows why we were so disappointed in the USA during the Ukraine war.
Yes, Iran is a good effort by Trump, as long as they can finish it in an okay way, so I’ll hold out until the mullah regime is gone and can no longer terrorize the people.
Thousands of sailors are stranded in the Persian Gulf after the American-Israeli attack on Iran. The crew of a ship testifies to how they loaded crude oil while seeing explosions light up the sky above them.
The ship is now anchored off the coast of Dubai.
“It looks like we’ll be stuck here for the time being. We are powerless, we can only wait and hope that nothing hits us,” says a person in the crew.
Normally, about a hundred ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf daily. But after the outbreak of war, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has threatened to attack every Western ship trying to pass through the strait.
“USA’s President Donald Trump appears to backtrack from a previous statement about not ruling out a ground invasion of Iran, reports NBC News.
“It would be a waste of time. They have lost everything. They have lost their fleet. They have lost everything they can lose,” Trump tells the TV channel.
In a separate interview with the same channel, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says they are ready if the USA decides to deploy troops.
“We are waiting for them. We are ready for them, and we are confident that we could confront them and it would be a great disaster for them.”
Trump is preparing to declare total victory and withdraw from the war.
I hope not, even though it would be like him. If they withdraw too early, it’s a disaster for the people, someone has to be punished and it will be those who have shown joy over the departure of the mullors.
“Russia Forces Ukrainian POWs to Record “Thank You” Propaganda Videos for Transfer to Hungary”
“🤬 The Russians captured 19 residents of the village of Sopych in Sumy region, took them to Bryansk region, and then filmed a propaganda story with them, which was shown on the news.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mgf2fqwevc2e
“Polish-Ukrainian joint venture PK MIL SA is preparing to launch production of the Ukrainian 2S22 Bohdana 155mm NATO-standard self-propelled artillery system in Poland. It is also noted that more than 600 Bohdana systems have already been produced.”
Ukraine 🇺🇦
With Russian air defenses now seemingly almost completely absent from Crimea, Ukrainian Armed Forces are freely taking out any targets they choose.
Early this morning..
• a Project 22460 “Ochotnik” patrol ship;
• a radar station from the S-400 complex;
• a “Forpost” UAV;
• a Project 1496M1 marine tugboat;
• a Project 16640 ship;
• a 02510 “BK-16” landing craft;
• a Ka-27 helicopter.
Jay in Kyiv
👍✊
Call it – it’s called prevention in my book.
🇺🇦In russian captivity, Ukrainian POW’s are told no one is waiting for them & that they are long forgotten.
So Ukrainians stand by the roads during every return, with flags & banners, showing our defenders gratitude & that they were NEVER forgotten! We wait for the return of them all.🫂
https://x.com/inebackiversen/status/2029572294192849117?s=46
🇦🇪 UAE intermediary exports aircraft components for civilian and military purposes from the West to Russia.
— United24
😡
Regarding these clans that are supposed to sabotage and misbehave.
I’m thinking like this – if I’m a gangster and someone is going to pay me to cause trouble, absolutely why not. I obviously lie freely about believing in this and that, and that my hatred is genuine towards whatever I believe benefits me.
But if my employer seems to be failing, no chance I’ll do what I promised, why would I? If I’ve already been paid, perfect, if not, it’s not worth the risk because maybe I won’t get it either, better then to ask for an advance, then hope I get it and still not bother to do what is requested.
So I think that when the regime falls or looks weak, then one might as well just jump ship as a small-time crook?
Yes, a good point there – absolutely.
What I had in mind was that they would have struck before the start of the war during the buildup where everything from the USA landed in Europe
Agreed 👍
Oops, late editing, sorry.
My response was to your unedited post which was… interesting 😊
Getting a bit curious, maybe I should dig into the revision history in the database 😉
Just kidding, I’m not that serious when it comes to comments.
But maybe it’s something to consider.. 😄
Offtopic, sea levels
In Öresund, the water level is lower than before, even though the strong easterly winds have ceased long ago. Is what we are seeing a sea level decrease, i.e., water freezing into ice at the poles and the water receding? The shorelines become strips of land, the piers don’t even reach the shallows, and the Flintnän where larger ships are supposed to pass through Öresund has been too shallow. What has happened?
205,
So what’s happening with the sea levels?
Lake Mälaren is extremely low and it’s not good for the wooden structures in Gamla Stan at all – they are rotting away quite quickly.
Sloppy work that Dengamle was responsible for – I bet you guessed right.
If this is global, then Holland is in trouble now or just the Baltic Sea?
Not too many have warned about falling sea levels, right?
No, they were supposed to rise, said Al Gore and the environmentalists. It has become a theme in mainstream media and part of the postmodern narrative.
I know people who moved from coastal apartments in southern Baltic Sea 10-15 years ago. Out of fear of rising water levels. What is multifactorial is always interesting. However, everyone who is well-read knows that water levels tend to be low in the spring.
Yes, and often high in the autumn!
Then we have the land uplift up here so it counteracts the sea level rise, but my guess is that it will eventually be noticed here too, but it’s probably still many years until then.
With the appropriate choice of curve fitting, you can make any fluctuations fit the scenarios you want to promote. So far, it is extremely difficult to ensure that there would be a long-term acceleration of sea level rise. However, this sounds uninteresting and works poorly for creating panic and making money on clickbait articles.
Well, but what the media writes isn’t that, is it?
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/saknas-275-000-miljarder-liter-vatten
“A high pressure has pushed out 275 cubic kilometers of water from the Baltic Sea.”
That’s what I replied + the winds of course also contribute.
If your comment is directed at Lasse W and not me, he is still right, because it is due to the high pressures that occur in the spring that lead to lower water levels in the spring.
But you coastal and inland folks wouldn’t recognize that, of course. 😉
The comment about autumn and land uplift has nothing to do with the explanation for low water levels, it was just adjacent reasoning (if that was what you reacted to).
I targeted the post to those who understand
Is it because they have discovered that the sea levels are higher overall than previously thought?
All the water has drained away from the Öresund strait?
The north-easterly wind is still blowing, although not as strong, and in combination with the high pressure prevailing in the area, you have the answer.
If it is unusually cold at the poles, the freezing of seawater has minimal impact on sea levels.
Ice forms, but since it floats in the water and pushes it down, there is barely any difference.
If you are going to have drinks with ice cubes tonight, you can test it!
Severe cold at the poles can prevent melting and cause sea level rise to decrease or be absent, but it does not lead to the opposite process.
To reverse that, large amounts of precipitation would need to fall on land areas near the poles so that the water freezes and remains (ice caps and glaciers). We would then have less water in the hydrological cycle and therefore less water in the oceans. This means the process that has been ongoing for hundreds of thousands of years, especially during the ice ages.
The Arctic had about 6% less sea ice than normal this winter, and Antarctica almost reached a record low ice extent in March.
In 2025, it was the warmest year ever recorded in Antarctica (since measurements began), and in the Arctic, it was the second warmest ever.
When the winds shift and the high pressure dissipates, you will see the water depth increase in the Öresund strait.
It’s true MXT. It will be good for the oxygen levels in the Baltic Sea when new water from the Atlantic comes in. Normally, there is land uplift in the north and central Sweden, and land subsidence in Skåne. This is due to the inland ice. Problems in Skåne, for example, at Skanör Falsterbo where the sea erodes large land areas. As an example, they had to turn Lake Mälaren into a lake by building locks, otherwise this beautiful lake would have eventually disappeared. Lake Mälaren was previously a bay of the Baltic Sea. Skåne is therefore becoming smaller and smaller. It always annoys (pleases) many.
Thank you for the post Johan no 1.
Well MXT now you’re mocking 205 but here comes the 10kr question to you.
-what has driven the rise in sea levels?
I wasn’t joking, I was just explaining. The first thing that was a joke wasn’t directed at 205.
There are actually two reasons for rising sea levels.
– The melting of ice caps and glaciers, etc.
– Increased temperature in the oceans (warm water expands)
Both have in turn been caused by the rise in the Earth’s average temperature. Which in turn is due to our emissions. The latter one hardly dares to write here, but that doesn’t make it any less true.
Now I want to hear your version of it!
Yes, sea levels have risen by 23cm since 1900 and there is reason to believe that we have natural cycles of colder decades and slightly warmer decades.
If nothing else, Rikkitikitavi at cornucopia already knew this summer that it would be a cold winter this year due to natural cycles.
If we were to have slightly colder decades, glaciers and poles will increase their ice mass, and then sea levels must reasonably decrease again – since we are engaging in honest argumentation here, this becomes the only reasonable conclusion?
If one measures the yearly minimum, it varies greatly from year to year
https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5036/
This was good, if we were to have 20 colder years, the curve would go straight up again, right?
https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/5521/
But this winter apparently was also very cold AND the climate crisis was just different.
I think this is starting to become ridiculous – when I was at university in Edinburgh in 2000, we had courses where they told us that within 20 years sea levels would have risen by at least one meter.
Now it’s 25 years later and we are not even close, 1/4 of what it was since 1900.
In fact, through old coastal forts, one could reasonably estimate the sea levels at the time they were built, and the diligent Romans had many such forts around the year 100 AD when the water level was 1.2m lower than today in the Mediterranean, and that was during a warm period, how does that add up.
And then well-paid professors claim that if we don’t pay our way out of the climate crisis, sea level rise will be at least 1m in 20 years.
The problem is not discussing it, but when this is used as a reason to take pension money and invest in Stegra, Northvolt, wind power, and what we discussed before – carbon capture, it’s fraud.
Since you liked carbon capture, I can inform you that most financiers have now withdrawn their money from it.
If you feel like saving the climate, you now have the opportunity to provide financing there, I’ve heard that Stegra also needs money.
It’s always other people’s money that should be invested, which drives me completely crazy, pension funds also cannot be touched, but when it comes to saving the climate, everything must be sacrificed – madness.
If one disconnects financing from all these climate crisis frauds, I probably wouldn’t care as much…
Of course, if we were to have 20 consecutive years with extremely cold winters, it would certainly make a big difference for sea levels. Glaciers and ice sheets would then retain the precipitation that falls.
Now, this year was just locally a very cold winter, globally it has been among the warmer ones so it has not led to any rebuilding of ice, or any snow cover.
The extent of the sea ice is often brought up, but that is mostly to be able to measure what is happening and differences between the years.
It is also mentioned, of course, when large ice sheets break off and start to drift, but then it is because they can move towards warmer waters and melt. That’s when we’re talking about ice that is hundreds of meters thick, so it’s more a question of icebergs. They will not reappear just because there are a few cold years.
When it comes to the money, who should pay then? The state? But it’s us/the people, right?
The super-rich? Ultimately, it’s all of us.
It is all of us who will also pay the price in the long run if we don’t do anything.
Now it’s a slow process, and many who have warned have exaggerated the speed of the changes, but that’s probably also to wake people up.
The fact that the temperature has risen by almost 3 degrees up here is hardly noticeable even though it is worrying for those who understand what it could mean in the long run. It has happened in just over 100 years.
We should have a check-in every ten years from now on, so maybe we’ll start to realize who was right!
But when the problems really start, we are probably both gone. That’s why it’s difficult to get people to care. As long as nothing major has happened in one’s own lifetime, one does not worry.
Good that you acknowledge the lack of academic integrity in the debate.
Just so everyone is clear.
Liquid water has approximately the same volume as ice, so ice in the ocean does NOT cause sea level rise when it melts. Archimedes’ principle
The ice on land, for example the ice sheet on Greenland, will cause sea level rise as it has not been in the water from the beginning.
Thermal expansion also affects.
There are far too many people who see a floating iceberg and think that that iceberg will make my garden flood!
Oh no, the polar bears will neither decrease nor increase.
https://www.svtstatic.se/image-news/480/wide/0.5/0.5/e-18639882-1531389943000
We forget quickly. As recently as this summer, the water level in the Baltic Sea was at a record high. After a windy spring with southwest winds, the Baltic Sea rose to record levels. Now it’s the opposite. Slow tide, one could say, even though the moon doesn’t affect it here.
The Earth consists of 4/5 parts water. The rest is for mooring. 🌜🌬️🌊🌧️🛳️
Some questions/answers were directed at me above but I want to clarify one thing –
A first strike is when you strike before the opponent and the 5th fleet left the dock on February 26th.
Mullapower was not taken out before February 28th, which was the start, if they had been taken out before, that would have been the start.
Yes, they cut into the leadership who GATHERED IN ONE ROOM.
Before February 26th, everyone sensible knew that the USA would attack anyway.
Well, if it was the case that the Iranians needed to sit together around a meeting table to agree on war and died before they could do that, then isn’t that exactly the same as missing the chance for a first strike?
It’s not like China and Russia DIDN’T know when the 5th fleet left the dock, and if they didn’t get any information from there, they could have checked Twitter.
It then suggests that the Iranians did not plan, order, and carry out a preemptive strike, and why that is the case is something for historians to figure out.
The idea that the USA would be ahead for a second when the fleet left the dock, the countdown had started, and it was just a matter of when the USA would start the war.
The Iranians themselves have stated that they have contingencies and that all unit commanders have their orders and know what to do.
If it were true that all the twelve-taggers needed to sit around a meeting table to make decisions about self-defense, it would be quite surprising because the country seems to have no problem attacking any country they can reach in the region, arbitrarily killing their citizens, and activating all terrorist organizations in the MENA region.
It may turn out in the end that the orders never came, but on the 28th after the mullahs were taken out, they fired 550 missiles so every missile battery opened up – did they give the order for that in that case?
When a ship leaves the dock, it is preceded by bunkering and activity – what type of personnel on leave comes back and the engines are started a day or two before?
Not the least bit invisible that large ships are getting ready to depart days before it happens.
When the 5th fleet leaves the dock, it may not have been in a preventive effort to avoid becoming a target for an Iranian first attack? And where/when was the first rocket/missile fired towards Iran and how close was this to the leadership meeting?
On February 28th, the first bombs fell – that was the beginning.
On February 28th, Khamenei died.
On February 26th, the 5th Fleet leaves the dock in Bahrain.
On February 28th, Iran bombs the 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain.
🤔1) Probability of Iranian 1st strike in the days leading up to February 26 increased or decreased? 2) Probability of moving the fleet with increased probability of Iranian first strike (1)?
That is, moving the fleet is something the USA would have done anyway.
Then the question remains of the probability of an American first strike if the fleet is moved.
The probability of an American first strike is really the whole point of building up military presence in the region. This increases the likelihood of an Iranian first strike. And having a fleet gathered in port is absolutely not a “good thing” in an Iranian scenario.
The question that then emerges is whether the first strike from the American side was prompted/triggered by the gathering of the Iranian leadership (also not a “good thing”). What supports this is information about communication being cut off, making only physical meetings possible.
Furthermore: the probability of the Iranian leadership gathering (physically, see above) to discuss/make decisions about a first strike increases with the American fleet moving out of port, which, as you suggest, is a prerequisite for an American first strike.
Then maybe one needs to look at the timing. A meeting doesn’t have to last more than a few hours.
Now it has become clear – Israel is smart and has a portal where Iranians can leave coordinates for where the IRGC and the Iranian regime are located.
Have you seen the stadium?
15,000 IRGC gathered there in the stadium, which was for 80,000 spectators, and now leveled to the ground.
That was very clever, they can’t hide anywhere.
No, there is always a gap with Trump. He prefers to be in the center all the time. And always have a word ready. To use an expression, he is “full of his own importance”. But politically, he has a pretty good compass. That’s what I think.
Wait here now – you’re fixating on Manpads but not mentioning drones at all?
So I indulge in speculation and conspiracies because I mentioned Manpads?
Yet we’ve had 1500 drone flights over just German military and important targets in 2 years.
—
So should I switch to the gangs and clans that had FPV drones with warheads that they released over airbases 2km away and flew in on GPS coordinates?
Does that sound more reasonable?
MXT,
Responding here, relevant parts of your post first.
—
When it comes to Iran’s terrorist cells and deep ties with criminal organizations, one starts to wonder if maybe it only existed in your head? 😉 They should have been activated by now.
One explanation could be that Iran’s leadership was taken out early before they could give orders for various terrorist attacks. Perhaps there are no longer any remaining individuals who had contacts with the cells, so no one knows how to reach them anymore. Communication must have been done with maximum security, so it may not be as simple as sending an SMS or tweeting instructions.
Or maybe those who took over are so overwhelmed that they haven’t even gotten that far.
If that’s the case, it should come fairly soon once they have organized themselves and managed to resume the connections.
Another explanation is that Western intelligence services simply have them under full control and have already secretly thwarted any attempts.
—
The post above referred to a preemptive strike with assets in Europe, and since Iran had previously paid gangs and clans for such deeds, especially in Sweden, it was likely.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/granskning/ug/sa-bestaller-iran-attacker-mot-israeliska-mal-av-svenska-gang
Then, in the first two days, I wrote that now the terrorist attacks will come like clockwork from all Iranian assets in Europe.
These came
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/03/03/edinburgh-stabbing-suspect-charged-after-two-people-attack/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr73jx9e59ko
But it’s far below the wave of terror that I expected, of course.
Now we are entering the phase where the Iranian regime seems to be collapsing and will eventually fall – no one likes a loser.
Has Iran tried to establish terrorist cells, or is it just in my head?
According to the media, Mossad has been working hard to provide Europe with information about the terrorist cells (they knew when they would attack Iran)
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/11/06/europe/weapons-cache-hamas-vienna-latam-intl
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2025/11/13/fifth-terror-suspect-arrested-in-germany-in-connection-with-wider-hamas-europe-plot/
Well, maybe the answer is that Mossad has done its job?
After all, they apparently had full insight into the Iranian regime and thus the terrorist plans?
IF it was the case that everything depended on Khomeini himself giving orders, otherwise nothing would happen, then Iran was even more incompetent than I thought, and above all, they themselves say that was not the case.
There is no shortage of radical mosques and radicalized young men in Europe today, and the attack on Iran has probably created some aversion – I am quite certain that the likelihood of future terrorist attacks is high.
But the coordinated attacks from Iranian operatives and various types of agents have clearly not materialized.
I also believe that they exist, but perhaps not to the extent that one might have thought. I am surprised myself that there haven’t been more. If nothing else, I actually thought there would be more religious fanatics who would come up with foolishness on their own.
Now, there were quite a few who went along with Khomeini, if it was the innermost, trusted circle, they didn’t just have to hang on to him. Admittedly incompetent still to gather so many.
They haven’t kept up with the Ukraine war and seen how Russian tanks in a cluster have been taken out.. 🙂
I have straightened out the timeline below.
Perhaps the answer is simply that Mossad has quietly provided our security services with ongoing information?
Yes – we have had a lot of spectacular terrorist attacks in Europe in the last 10 years and now one might think it’s time for another peak, but it wasn’t.
Maybe a little early to feel safe but it should have started by now.
Mossad has surely shared all the info, it’s in their interest and very good if so.
In that case, it also means that the security services that received the information were able to prevent anything from happening.
If so, it’s very positive, it means that it’s not so easy to paralyze us with terrorist threats.
The following text has been translated from Swedish to English:
Now it is written that Russian ships outside Iran provide target practice for Iran.
Ah, I hope they run aground due to low sea levels!
😶
Yes, excuse me, that was a real low point on my part, the joke shot itself in the foot. A real foundation collapse.
Water should evaporate in a global warming, rain down into the sinkholes formed by climate change. The sea level is dropping.
Are you sober?
Ok –
The negotiations between the USA and Iran will conclude on February 26.
They are scheduled to meet again on March 6.
The chief is spewing threats and hatred on Twitter in parallel with the negotiations.
On February 26, the 5th fleet will leave the dock, so they have prepared for departure days before, and China has excellent satellites.
What more did Iran need to see to understand that there would be war?
If this was a trick by Trump, then China, Russia, and Iran have made a major strategic mistake of our time. How gullible is it legal to be?
From Swedish state media.
Information: Russia provides Iran with information
According to reports to The Washington Post, Russia is providing Iran with information to be able to attack American targets around the Gulf States.
My conclusion – Iran, China, and Russia have made a huge mistake that cost the Iranian regime its head.
How they could do it after October 7, 2023, the extermination of Hamas, Hezbollah’s death dance, and June 2025 is incomprehensible to me, but apparently that’s how it is.
Maybe they are so brainwashed by their own religion that they simply thought that now they have the chance to die in “battle” and collect virgins in paradise. Imagine how surprised they will be.
Today, Swedish companies had the honor of participating in a Teams meeting with the Swedish ambassador here in the UAE. I received the link and listened in, any special news? No, not really. Extremely brief summary:
Mmm, I guess we won’t know he’s left until he’s left… 🤷♂️
Furthermore, I heard about how some countries are acting here, and without specifying which countries (not Sweden), one country wants 2300 euros (per person) to fly its own citizens home via Oman. Another country (okay, Austria) took this couple, at no cost, on the chartered plane even though they are not citizens there. ✊
I can say that now in my plastic bathtub, in some kind of whisky haze, I’m not in a good mood. Sweden is really catastrophically bad at crisis management. And no, I don’t expect to be picked up here by some kind of private jet, I just want concrete and clear information.
I tried to get hold of weak beer after DenGamle’s recommendation that apparently worked (kind of?) during the 30 Years’ War, but it seems to be difficult to find in this country so I’ll continue with my budget whisky instead.
Well, for now, there is calm here in Abu Dhabi.
Your posts are absolutely amazing so hold on to them until you get too drunk and forget where you put your laptop 😀
Lex Tsunami in Thailand and that Sweden never flies home anyone other than ISIS terrorists?
I followed a family in Aftonbladet who had sold their house and embarked on a trip around the world that started late 2019 before Christmas, and they made it to Madagascar before COVID struck.
They wanted to give their children the experience of a lifetime, and the plan was to use the profits from selling their home – they definitely got the experience of a lifetime.
Five small children and the people of Madagascar panicked about COVID, so when the wife at the gate to the flight they had bought in panic said, as an honest Swede, “I’m just coughing a bit, that’s okay, right?” they were quickly moved to a deserted island outside of Madagascar for isolation.
They had a tin shed to stay in, and on the fourth day, a small boat arrived with rice and bottled water.
They were in full-blown panic and stayed in touch with Aftonbladet until the battery died.
They eventually made it home, but the Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs didn’t lift a finger.
Appalling and the worst part is that I am not the least bit surprised. The classic Swedish “well, they chose it themselves”, yes, it’s always so damn easy to be wise after the event…
I am sending a barrel of light beer, hang in there JockeSoft, help is on the way (as Trump said to the Iranian people).
Wonderful, running out into the stairwell right away and waiting for it. 🫶
Considering it takes him two days to crawl to the liquor store and back home, you might have to wait a while.
😂 The Old Man has tuned up the walker so it will go fast!
I OBVIOUSLY have a storage of barrels at home, as do all veterans from the 30 Years’ War.
Empty barrels make the most noise. Ancient Chinese proverb.
Thank you for the report!
Strange that the information is so poor, surely it’s difficult to figure out which flights are going, which ones have available seats, etc. and of course know who wants to go home.
Should be able to quickly set up a number or a website where those who want to come home can register, might as well set an approximate price for the trips and then have someone chase seats and buy spots.
Hold on to the edge of the bathtub!
Today, with all the possibilities that the internet offers, it should be easy. At least in my whisky haze with one hand on the edge of the bathtub and the other holding my whisky glass.
There is a Swedish list to which I have submitted my details to the Ministry for Foreign Affairs, so it should not be difficult to set up a web form with relevant questions and send a link to everyone on the Swedish list in the area. That’s how the computer nerd would have solved it 🫡
Now I suddenly realize that it cannot be done, oh my god what was I thinking. I mean, this form must of course be procured with a clear specification of requirements and then handled according to current procedures. We absolutely cannot risk hiring someone who is not thoroughly scrutinized and therefore (probably) has an economic connection to some random politician. Because that wouldn’t happen if we procure it correctly 🙄
Well, back into the haze!
By 2032, they might have a solution ready! 😂
Forgive me for laughing, it’s actually mostly tragic when bureaucracy complicates things in crisis situations (if it has indeed done so in this case).
More afraid that there is a lack of initiative and courage to do what is needed.
You forgot about the risk of money laundering.
One takes their black money and buys a plane ticket to Sweden?
I read somewhere that it was possible to get those 2300€ from the travel insurance.
I’m almost mad at how easily Iran was fooled.
Maybe they didn’t dare to strike first?
Maybe it could be so. They also said before that they do not intend to attack first but defend themselves if they are attacked.
Perhaps they hoped that the USA only wanted to show strength to put pressure on the negotiations and did not believe that they would actually attack.
The USA does not seem to have given any direct deadline or other advance warning like if you have not signed before XX then it will happen.
It’s an idea but considering that they have sent robots to every country in the entire MENA region, it doesn’t seem likely?
However, they expected further negotiations on March 6 🧐
I lean towards the idea that the USA deceived them with a cunning stratagem.
Easily deceived, their legacy will be 😶
It cost them the country.
If the Russians are so damn stupid that they provide Iran with target coordinates, then I start to wonder if there is anyone in the US military leadership who has said: Fuck this shit, let’s lure them out of their hole in the ground! Make Trump attack Iran!
And I don’t mean the current admin. because it has impulse control like a 13-year-old with $5000 in one pocket and a gun in the other. I mean that there is someone behind (the deep state?) who has seen through the bluff and realizes that it’s not Zelensky’s cards that are wrong, it’s Russia and their allied gang of thieves.
Being able to overthrow Iran and then “get the country” is a huge economic gain for private interests in the USA.
Taxpayers foot the bill now, private businesses reap the profits later for reconstruction and all the natural resources.
If one succeeds in crashing China economically so that one can buy up all their assets at a bargain price, that is probably the holy grail.
That’s what I hope will make Trump stay until they actually get a regime change that also benefits the people.
I’m pretty sure there are two brain cells in Trump’s head, one growling:
“time to pull out, this is too risky, you can surely get a good deal with the new guy about oil, pull out, and you can subdue any other country in the world, now that you are all-powerful with the world’s largest military force, no complicated discussions, just power language “bend the knee or die”.”.
And another one, appealing:
“now you have the power to finish what you started in a way that brings you honor, money, oil, and gas, give power to the people and they will give back a thousandfold.
Absolutely 100% 🤣🤣🤣
“USA will not make any deals with Iran other than ‘unconditional surrender,’ writes Donald Trump on Truth Social. Furthermore, he writes that the USA and its allies will work to make Iran ‘economically bigger, better, and stronger than ever before’ after one or more new leaders have been elected. ‘Make Iran great again (MIGA!)’, he writes in capital letters.”
This is actually very interesting, EU countries that are still dependent on Russian gas today really have only themselves to blame.
If you haven’t found alternatives yet, you have only yourself to blame.
They might as well do like Hungary, blame Ukraine and threaten to attack them.
Really fresh 🤢
Yes indeed, they have had 4 years to themselves, “hovo domb får kroppen lid”, as we usually say in my hometown.
This is actually very interesting, EU countries that are still dependent on Russian gas today really have only themselves to blame.
https://www.khaleejtimes.com/world/mena/worldmenaus-iran-tensions-israel-strikes-tehran-live-updates-day-7#blogCard4399bfa6-19d3-470e-8a4d-df9883fea038
Anyone who has heard about the ship towed by the Swedish Maritime Administration (KBV)?
Typical Russian river vessel. They are everywhere. Varying standards but large enough to also be used for European voyages.
Opportunity to sink a Russian warship off the coast of Iran.
Would stir up a hornet’s nest.
Sure!
No, I mean Nemiroff of course!
🥃 🥳
Yes, that would really be a gamechanger, I can imagine it would cool down the relationship between Trump and Putin a few degrees.
Trump has been diligent in reducing Russia’s influence lately, perhaps as a side effect, but still good. A sinking of a warship would probably be the final nail in the coffin for their “relationship”.
🤣🤣🤣🤣
BREAKING:
The devil is dead. Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, Head of the Judiciary in Iran, was eliminated. He gave the death sentence to thousands of protesters & Iranian women for not wearing Burqa & Hijab.
https://bsky.app/profile/alexjungle.bsky.social/post/3mgfuiyml3s2i
Karma never sleeps.
⚛️
What goes around comes around.👍
Yippee. I think Hin’s whole will probably need to seek permission to expand hell.
Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps destroyed a Russian armored column advancing toward Lyman, neutralizing a tank and three IFVs. KRAKEN operators spotted the column; 3rd battalion and Silver Battalion drones finished it off with artillery support. #Ukraine
👍
@MXT, Did you see that Jocke replied higher up?
How are you doing in the luxury country where you get to celebrate Friday intoxication five hours before me 😭
During the last hour, do nothing else but make a little list that says – six-pack of Stella and apple pie.
Some kind of French apple things that are tasty have replaced bad chips.
The list is important, otherwise I might forget the beer.
MXT seems to have emptied the whole bottle by lunchtime and Dengamle, we know from old times that on days when there isn’t two per mille in the blood, he calls them bad days.
No – I’m still pondering over Iran and it’s impossible to escape the fact that Evil Team Ltd really messed up here.
They always threaten with violence and war, but when it really matters, they don’t dare/want/plan to go to war with the USA when they’ve threatened to, and the result was devastating.
Exactly EVERYTHING would have been better than what they are facing now – everything.
It’s a bit like the eternal Swedish discussion about whether we should have let the heavy attack skim the water surface and released the whole load in the shipping ports in Baltijsk and Kaliningrad, or waited until they came over to us.
Or submarine in international waters or wait until the territorial water border.
(we planned to have a submarine right at the harbor entrances, right?)
There must be analysts all over the West scratching their heads right now.
Maybe you can guess what Monday’s post will be about.
Someone commented on Substack during today’s post that it was similar to the Soviet Union in 1941, and that comparison wasn’t too far off, with the difference being that Iran fell.
Went in and checked the other blog to look for MXT, who of course was there.
They have focused on Hungary and Orban today and not 100% on Trump.
Iran seems to be completely uninteresting so it’s just me who got stuck in it 😄
Media is apparently not interested in it either.
Johan No.1 feels that the Iran war will determine whether there will be a full global conflict or not, but Aftonbladet had some articles about Bikindrev and “body responsibility” (new word) and that Veronica Maggio is starting to feel burnt out.
I agree, the war against Iran is so incredibly important. It determines so much. If the regime is not defeated then… it will be worse than a day under 2 per mille (God forbid).
I celebrate with a beer for every dead Iranian scum.
So it is, and the lice that are here in our fur must go
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mgfwotyfnk2y
😎 The 475th Regiment “Code 9.2” in the Zaporizhzhia direction destroys two Russian occupiers who did not hear that one drone was watching them and the other was preparing to attack.