Big things are happening – the fourth anniversary of the Ukraine war has passed, Ukraine is flaming Russian military industry and the counterattacks are very successful. On top of that, Iran is out as a support which will probably be noticed quite soon.
The attack on Iran went well as we guessed it would in the previous post about the attack on Iran – it was needed anyway since Iran is the same destructive hydra in MENA as Russia is for us, and all sensible assessors stand behind this, and the USA has done the right thing.
The guess that Iran’s leaders were the archetype of those who choose to go down in a big fireworks display was excellent, but what we haven’t seen yet is that they have activated all terrorist cells and paid the gangs and criminal clans in cash for a lot of terrorist acts – there will be a very dramatic death in the West in the future.
A bit hard to see that it would surprise the USA, so maybe a move from them to play that card?
Now, essentially only the ground invasion remains when the IRGC has been weakened a bit more, which will be taken care of by the citizens in Iran with the help of SOF from Israel and the USA, and if necessary, the USA has its Marine Corps ready, but the hard work must be done by the oppressed people in Iran, that is clear.
Exactly when is impossible to say, but the citizens should be able to handle the regime since the country is fed up with oppression. There are many rumors right now, but some say that the regular army is a bit on the fence.
It will be like breaking a fistful of spaghetti when it happens – a sudden collapse that spreads throughout the country over a few days and the usual exodus of the elite to Turkey and Russia. They are no longer welcome in Dubai.
So far, a bit surprised that none of the US ships have been sunk, and it is highly notable that what the Chinese have delivered in the last 2-3 months has not worked particularly well – this is probably a Nagasaki against China as well, which so far looks promising.
China has (probably…) delivered LV, anti-ship missiles, various types of missiles, and radar. The idea was that Iran would be able to defend itself and preferably get the USA to back off, but at the very least show that Chinese technology is not as bad as to be labeled “designed in the USA” instead of “Made in China”.
According to the previous world-leading post that described how this would go, the USA and China engaged in full-scale electronic warfare, and then we got to see how their own systems worked in the electronic warfare environment and how the opponent was disrupted – so far, the USA seems to have been able to protect its fleet and target objectives in Iran almost arbitrarily with extremely small losses.
Terror bombing cannot be prevented – Shaheds will continue to drone over MENA for a while longer.
China has also announced that their red line was Iran – then the question is what they can do about it, but at least we are at the diplomatic stage on that front if anyone was wondering.
I believe this seems to be cooling for Russia and China. If the US aircraft carriers had sunk already, it would have been the opposite, cooling for the USA.
Then maybe China will take advantage with Taiwan when the USA is busy – who knows, but such things must be taken into account and prepared for.
The USA is probably very satisfied, MENA is buying security at five times the market price, and just as Johan No.1 predicted, everyone is now running to the USD and the national debt – problem solved, and my dollar salary is back from toilet paper, gracias gracias.
But for the advance to Iran to pay off, the USA needs to install a government friendly to them that gives them priority on all oil and reconstruction – somewhere along the line, tax money has been moved into private company pockets, which is always one of the sub-goals of such attempts to help the disadvantaged and make the world a better place.
Johan No.1 supports the attack on Iran as the regime has been so destructive that it must go, now it remains for the country to start the journey towards normalization, but it should be possible, and there Europe can always be a willing and reliable partner for stability and peace post-war, instead of legitimizing the regime through state visits with covered heads.
Anyone who is now screaming about violations of international law and kept quiet until today will not go to heaven at all – surprisingly many, but most are the usual suspects whose inclinations were anticipated, such as the Palestinian demonstrations, for example.
I didn’t know that Carl Bildt and Fredrik Reinfeldt had taken the Iranian money, but I know now – Judas No.1 and Judas No.2.
There is also a special place in hell for people like Göran Greider who apply ideology and idealism to reality and think that Iranian women should keep quiet and endure the oppression for the overarching goal of making the world a better place.
Our political parties and their representatives have tweeted sensibly even though the Feminist Initiative took a clear stand, and spiced it up a bit extra to avoid any misunderstandings.
It is intriguing that our only pure feminist party turned out to be on everyone else’s side except for the oppressed women – a silent shift in goals?
Then I also fell seriously ill for a week and discovered that the toughest employers in Sweden, the subscribers of Substack, absolutely do not accept any sick leave or waiting days, but hopefully, by coming back with full vigor, it will be enough for a reactivation of the paid subscriptions that have plummeted significantly, which was not so fun 😐
And if you haven’t won the jackpot yet and started subscribing – do it to feel happiness in life.
Twitter celebrated the anniversary of the Ukraine war with a large number of films from the beginning of the invasion that I have now saved. As mentioned, I will open a YouTube channel and park the films there for the historical archive in the future, but now I am starting to have trouble devoting all paid working hours to this, which is very unfortunate.
Back to Ukraine.
Today’s post (should have been on the anniversary…) is a day for reflection and prayer – four long years of war have passed, and the disappointments have been endless and gigantic, but we have learned along the way as we have applied history to our assumptions and then witnessed a 1939 global conflict start playing out.
None of you reading these world-leading posts have previously seen the start of a world war or how a Hitler evolved from a mediocre painter after a childhood full of abuse to opening assembly line death camps more efficiently than a Ford factory.
But now we have seen it – Twitter has given us all the information unfiltered so that we can analyze it ourselves and build our own chain of events that is most accurate in the world.
We have also seen Europe’s total inability to make tough decisions and that the USA does everything with an ulterior motive – just like during WW2, so it seems that history is repeating itself.
In our time, it was a little rat-like boy with the worst possible start in life who took on the mantle – weak, frail, protruding ears, and a single mother who supplemented the household income with services to the soldiers at a nearby army base she unexpectedly became pregnant by. The unwanted son was named the worst name she could think of – Vladimir, and at some point, the rat managed to find his way into the KGB as a trainee, and the rest is history.
This tough-as-stone national father with a black belt in judo, who always has his right arm at the imaginary pistol holster and controls the lives of tens of millions of people, began his career as a life-saving handyman in an oversized suit who ruthlessly clawed his way forward over the bodies of those who stood in the way of his ambitious career plans to become a short dictator who started at least one world war.
Because the third world war is actually underway now, I post Zelensky’s statement to emphasize it, but the only thing missing is actually for China to do something in Asia, right – then it’s a world war.
We have seen how Putin has radicalized and how the Russian army, and the country of Russia, has blown all boundaries of what is reasonable – then the quick-witted understand that anything can happen in the future, which Johan No.1 usually tries to reason about even though he is perceived as on the verge of diving into the rabbit hole.
Now Iran is two-faced – they show the boundlessness that we have suspected Russia will also manifest, but the attack is also a cooling bucket of ice water over Putin and Xi, which is probably one of the purposes of the operation.
The constant hanging question in the air – why doesn’t the Russian army revolt. The answer is that they treat their own worse than the enemy, so it’s too difficult to break free. They have had rampant desertion and refusal of orders, but it hasn’t been enough.
In 2022, Scholz (possibly through a higher officer, can’t remember) and Macron made efforts to convince Zelensky that Russia would not attack – it was so ingrained in us in the West to accept that history always repeats itself.
But even today, there are fully functioning, sensible people who believe that Putin will not escalate any further at all.
Why do you think the French aircraft carrier is in the Baltic Sea?
Of course, the Russian drone that circled around it – a statement. Unclear if it could be shot down and most importantly, how would the close defense have fared against the swarm of drones in the cassettes on the ship?
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/rysk-dronare-narmade-sig-hangarfartyget-charles-de-gaulle
One thing I have learned – low affective responses simply do not work against certain types of people, and if you are not willing to defend the free world, someone else will, or else they are no longer free, or they are dead, and we write tough letters.
One could argue that this also applies to those living in vulnerable areas taken over by gangs and criminal clans, but it is a completely different discussion that in our desire to do good, we allow 700,000 of our citizens to live under clan and gang rule and the hundreds of thousands of girls who do not receive equal treatment because it would be considered racist to give them the right to be children.
Now in 2025, the EU has taken a stand against the US tariff war – all those who previously said to lay low and not escalate made the right decision – were they wrong, or has the situation just changed?
Or was a low affective response tried and it didn’t work?
What is actually happening is that Europe is now starting to do what we should have done four years ago, and the consequence is that Ukraine has been completely left to fight an existential war alone, without friends, and has been betrayed dozens of times by the morally superior West.
In addition, the USA and Europe have long ensured that Russia would not lose the war, even though Europe is now slowly getting organized, and I am waiting for more good news.
On February 24, 2022, one of the first pieces of information on Twitter was a short clip from the airborne operation at Hostomel, helicopters flying in low, and I thought “Operation Garbo” and “Red Storm” – now it’s on, my goodness.
It was a strange feeling that I couldn’t handle, so I had to have a few Mariestad beers and dig up some extra ranch dip for the barbecue chips as I was working in Sweden during COVID at the time.
Airborne operations on the Uppsala plains were one of MekB10’s tasks besides conducting a landing in Oexlösund, so one has grown up with that actually.
Another early circulating video was when Biden asked Zelensky if he wanted to fly to the USA, and instead, he went out on the street with those remaining from the government and called for excessive force against the Russian bastards – a true leader.
At that time, I was also on the blog Cornucopia, which is an excellent historical archive, and wrote the post below on the first day (and many more…) – you can see for yourself how I calibrated myself on D-Day and on the other side, a unanimous media screamed that the war would be over in three days.
Who was right and who was wrong?
The hope of being able to write history was greatly disappointed as it is not possible to live on, but sometime I will probably retire and before cataracts, and if Cornucopia has not shut down its website, maybe I can start this huge project then.
This war actually started back in 2014, but I struggled with the sources at that time and often got stuck in pro-Russian narratives. On February 24, 2022, everything became black and white, good-evil, light-dark – all blinders were as if blown away, and the calibration was evidently immediate.
My initial observations from 2022 still stand and describe how IT SHOULD HAVE GONE, but we have learned the very hard way that the Western self-image is a reconstruction and that especially the USA has not acted in Europe’s best interests at all, and that Europe has been completely incapable of making tough decisions. My constant blind spot has been Europe and the USA, but perhaps being born into the Cold War made it so – you either became a society-disrupting communist or a faithful Western patriot.
The USA has its own agenda, Sullivan/Biden and later Trump saw Ukraine as collateral and have done their utmost to ensure that Russia survives. I often use the expression “USA is just like the bank, not your friend,” which is the lesson I have now reluctantly drawn.
My thought is that the USA wants a divided and frightened Europe under the threat of Russia, buying security from the USA at five times the market price and allowing the USA to do as they please.
I believe that Operation Badanka in the fall of 2022 was the point where I understood Biden’s betrayal, and even though the hope was that Trump would behave better then, and he thoroughly deceived me in August 2024, he has only taken over the baton and topped it by being even worse, as if
The hindsight construction is that Biden got scared but I suspect it was just the same US strategy that we’ve seen Trump engage in much more unmasked – that Russia shouldn’t suffer a crushing defeat.
The Kharkiv offensive was probably not fully sanctioned by the US but went well enough to serve as a substitute in the historical narrative. Luckily, we have received the truth from Ukraine and know how things really are – what we guessed back then in the fall of 2022, with the chorus of “no, it absolutely can’t be like that” thundering.
For four years, we have been guessing what happened, and very often it has later been confirmed by Ukraine, and since we have Twitter, we get the information completely unfiltered instead of heavily filtered by established media.
Today, the US has started to get really upset with Ukraine, which is good – it means UA is still fighting back.
Be very selective in choosing your targets – I guess the oil industry is meant, so we’ll see how the refinery attacks go in the future – Komi burned down the other day and then it was Novorossiysk so I don’t know what’s happening right now.
In the UN, the US wants to remove international integrity from the resolution.
And Zelensky confirms that the US is pushing hard for Ukraine to give up more territory in Donetsk, so it’s not about frozen fronts because Ukraine has already agreed to that.
Europe has also agreed to US demands and is trying to offer EU membership in 2027 as an incentive.
This one was really low from the US, awful.
Trump has tried to force Zelensky to elections, he has tried to politically bring down Zelensky, and the US has stopped all supplies especially LV just in time for Russia to drone Ukraine’s power infrastructure.
The US gets a gold star for its attempts to collapse Ukraine, according to Putin.
As you already know, if there is a ceasefire, Russia can continue to escalate, which is something we absolutely do not want, but apparently Europe and tough decisions are not compatible – I’m still waiting for that brilliant plan Europe is silently brewing that everyone says will come.
Many have blinders on and think Biden was okay, but he wasn’t – it started there, so this is how the US views the Ukraine war, but now Trump is the president and he is the one responsible.
I have learned that Europe is locked when the Russian hydra reaches far in, Germany wouldn’t even send helmets in the beginning, and Scholz hinted that they thought Ukraine could give up after a few weeks – Ukraine caused problems for Europe by refusing to be run over.
Schröder is a Russian turncoat, Merkel has said things that make the alarm bells flash, and Scholz slowed everything down to the point where I’m just waiting for confirmation that he too has taken Russian money. He was an old young communist and anti-NATO.
But even when Merz took over, who is supposed to be anti-Russian, Taurus hasn’t been sent, they are now out of supplies to send to Ukraine and also don’t want Ukraine to join the EU as soon as possible.
Not sending Taurus wasn’t just a matter of not sending – the manufacturer didn’t receive any orders for over 3 years even though they were in the media announcing that they could produce a lot very cheaply and very quickly. Germany, which presumably slowed things down?
The NATO meeting in winter 2023 was infamous because then Europe’s leaders got upset with Zelensky and called him ungrateful. The British Defense Minister was fired because he was too upset even for Europe.
When Ukraine invaded Russia in late winter 2023, a unanimous West screamed, and Russia called the US to formally complain about this audacity. The border was undefended because Ukraine was not allowed to attack over it with Ukrainian soldiers or Western equipment – so they attacked with Russian volunteers and Russian weapons, but that didn’t stop us from protesting loudly even though they didn’t violate the rules we arbitrarily set up.
Possibly, a violent offensive straight north in 2023 could have made a difference because in June of that year, the Wagner coup occurred, which was definitely in the planning stages even then, but that remains speculation.
If the US has had a sinister agenda that only benefited the US, Europe’s journey over 4 years has been characterized by cowardice, infiltration, cluelessness, stupidity, and naivety – a bit like our previous government’s constant “we have been naive” for two terms. They actually stole that from Sten Nordin, who said it for two terms in Stockholm when he sold off our public assets for peanuts to his buddies.
Given that almost all of our guesses have turned out to be true, the likelihood is very high that Sweden intended to send Gripen when it was needed, and the US stopped us with threats of contract breach.
But Sweden has, for the first time as far as I know, done everything right in the face of a major threat – we stood on Germany’s side during WW2, so we got fined and called it voluntary reconstruction aid.
Then we sent the Balts back to the Soviet Union, and our neutrality was so high-risk that the armed forces, together with deep-blue politicians, were on a collision course with a deeply infiltrated government that ended with an unresolved prime minister assassination.
The submarine intrusions from the 80s are still largely classified, but it doesn’t end there because all parliamentary parties have voted against disclosing the Swedish part of the Stasi archives.
In the Ukraine war, we have done everything right – kudos to us and hats off. One may think what they want about the Tidö team (that name…), but around the Ukraine war, they have been quick and acted decisively.
Europe is starting to show signs of fatigue, and as the global conflict is escalating and a new financial crisis like 2008 is looming, the danger is not over yet but increasing.
Russia is also preparing a new 2015-style migration to Europe.
Putin likely has major problems domestically, but the other big question of this war is interesting – why does Putin/Russia constantly refuse a ceasefire?
I believe the answer is – as soon as there is a ceasefire, Europe will send troops into Ukraine, and then Putin cannot restart the war, he is limited in his decision-making options.
We have seen the following predictions come true as well when they are later confirmed by sources other than Johan No.1 –
Russia exploits criminal clans and gangs as our modern-day agents, which they infiltrated during the Cold War, cheap and effective, and Johan No.1 has previously called the gangs and clans system-threatening for a reason.
The power infrastructure has been under attack, BUT not to the extent I thought – yes, Europe is keeping quiet so there is a lot we don’t know, but it should have escalated in December, which it didn’t. We would have seen it with power outages, but it never came. I think it was 205 on johanno1.se who posted this.
Russia has bombed Ukraine’s power infrastructure as much as they could, and some actions have taken place in Europe, but if it had been an ambitious attempt, we would have noticed it.
Now it’s too late, and before next year’s cold season, either Russia will have imploded or Ukraine will have won the war on the fronts.
All Ukrainian is on the rise and Iran is out of the game now.
If China can only be occupied with something else, cowardly Russia stands completely alone against Europe.
Yes, one mistake everyone else made was that the war would become trench warfare like WW1, then a ceasefire and a “Korean peace” (which is still a war).
Ukraine is engaging in mobile combat across the entire area and it’s going very well.
The USA and Europe have really made a great effort for four years so that Russia wouldn’t lose the war.
We have part of the picture but not the whole – hoping we get more of Ukraine post-Russia expulsion.
It is crystal clear that the USA has made a lot of decisions with Russia without Europe’s knowledge, and that the USA has also directly leaked critical information to Russia is also clear.
Venezuela, Iran, Syria, and Ukraine have had advance information from Russia, but China has not been involved in the developments and has had to act to the best of its ability.
The USA must have included in its risk analyses that Russia could continue towards Europe if Ukraine fell, so there are strong reasons to suspect that the USA’s actions are not only to get Russia on its side against China but also as a thorn in the side of Europe so that we become compliant.
I believe Europe has been too infiltrated by Russia to function across the board – we have been upset about the media for four years but politics are likewise completely dysfunctional. The Baltics have not managed to mine their land border again or build bunkers during four long years.
All of that is probably far from over unless Russia collapses.
Apparently, our governments have done everything in 2025-2026 to not be open about the level of Russian sabotage in Europe, but it is at a very high level. So much so that our previous “We are already at war with Russia” also turned out to be true – we are de facto in a twilight state with Russia already, and our defense forces do not rule out a minor armed adventure in the near future.
But the difficult part is not being right but being able to do something about it, where we have simply let the Russian hydra grow too big – we have had weak leaders in good times, unfortunately.
It got a bit messy here as I sit with fever chills and cough shakes trying desperately to prevent the streamlined jump of disappointed former paying subscribers, but I will try to come back with more posts during the week if the fever does not exceed 43 degrees.
One last point to emphasize – Johan No.1 has been screaming for four years that we should strike back and trying to describe the path to global conflict.
Since they haven’t done anything, the evil team has had full freedom to start the journey towards global conflict, and that’s where we really are now because Russia and the USA are carrying out acts of war in Europe, South America, and MENA. Africa is already a continent at war thanks to the African Corps, so the only thing left is Asia, and China will probably not disappoint us.
Until 2024, this could have been stopped, now I don’t think it’s possible anymore, but the war will be fought in MENA and Asia, not Europe – some consolation for us in the midst of all the misery.
At least Ukraine seems to still be able to defend itself, and probably it will start to tip in their favor during the spring if the RU offensive does not become too difficult to handle – because they have plans for a spring offensive.
The good news is that there are early signs that RU will not be able to handle a broad offensive this year AND Ukraine has now started PREPARING for rear functions – when do you do that 🧐
Russian ground forces in Ukraine have been around 700,000 in the last six months and have started to decrease – they are no longer able to maintain personnel supply.
However, it depends on Europe not allowing itself to be talked into a ceasefire because the USA absolutely does not want Ukraine to crush Russia. Unfortunately, it’s both bitter and sweet, France and the UK are ready to send troops to Ukraine, but Europe has also started to reduce material support to Ukraine, which has been flagged several times.
There is good hope that Ukraine will emerge victorious from this, and ultimately it is very good for Europe if the Russian puppet collapses, which will be the consequence if Ukraine wins.
Then on to the fact that our current global conflict will primarily be fought in Asia between the USA and China, to the advantage of cowardly Europe, which can send capabilities on a voluntary basis and not require general mobilization.
Russia’s attack and the war in MENA are thus diversions before China kicks off – that’s the theory of the third world war as is known.
I guess the Ukrainian shooters are smelling the morning air now, so no danger there – the only cloud on the horizon is if Europe allows itself to be talked into a ceasefire, which would come as soon as Putin understands that he is about to get beaten, but we sincerely hope that we are not so weak.
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Russian losses in Ukraine 2026-03-04
SLAVA UKRAINI
AFU reports:
Update from Abu Dhabi. It has been a calm night and I realize what a coward I am when I constantly wake up and check if there have been any new flight alerts on my phone, only to conclude that I am not the man to lead troops into battle. Here it’s not “hesa Fredrik” howling, instead a push notification comes to our phones along with a sound that probably wakes all the dead in the vicinity:
There is also a notification for “all clear” that unfortunately sounds exactly the same.
Even though the night was calm, there were some incidents last night, around 8:30 the alarm went off and there were visible flashes of light when missiles/drones were shot down, and the sound that the shootdowns produce is extremely unsettling. The statistics before that alarm were that yesterday 9 ballistic missiles, 6 cruise missiles, and 148 drones were shot down. I also read (can’t find the source now) that the UAE alone has received more missiles/drones than all other countries in the region combined. Obviously, Iran really wants to hit UAE hard. Luckily, UAE has a very good and efficient defense with modern Western equipment.
It is still difficult to leave from here, I almost think that’s the worst part of it all. I might not have left if it had been possible, as I am in the process of building some kind of life here with work, etc. But the feeling of being stuck is not exactly the best feeling, and no, I don’t expect the Ministry for Foreign Affairs to solve this problem, this is up to me and possibly my employer to handle together. It’s probably mostly E-type who thinks the world revolves around him 🙂
Life continues pretty much as usual here, a bit more remote work but otherwise business as usual. All services continue to function here, food is available just as usual so the impact on life is very limited despite everything that is happening. It’s probably mostly the psychological aspect that is affected and everyone handles that very differently. The calm could be due to the fact that the USA/Israel have actually managed to take out the launch sites and stockpiles, but I guess we’ll find out in due time.
It seems that Iran is interested in negotiations.
https://x.com/ANI/status/2029026913180893373
It became long today, but hoping for a calmer day today.
All the best from Abu Dhabi.
Anyone in the same situation would probably get agitated, so I don’t think you’re a coward.
Not being able to leave must feel difficult, even if you might not do it, but the knowledge that it’s not possible in case it escalates further can’t be fun.
It’s a bit strange that UAE is being particularly harshly attacked. Poorly informed, maybe there are many Americans on site?
Thank you very much for your report, and fingers crossed that everything goes well!
Yes, the feeling of not being able to get out is tough, it is.
I’m thinking that when the regime falls in a few weeks, will the buzzing of surrounding countries also stop?
UAE also doesn’t have a radical population that can be activated like in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Pakistan, Qatar, so on that front it will be quiet?
Wondering why they specifically highlighted UAE?
People jump just as high for the danger over text messages 😀😀
Interesting report from the front, please continue if you have time.
It seems like the Kurds have made progress in Iran now and that’s a very positive sign 👍
It wasn’t entirely clear because Trump betrayed them in Syria a few months ago and promised never to help again
Of course, I’m also keeping my fingers crossed that it calms down and after this, it will probably be safe again
I have had some discussions with colleagues and others today about why the UAE is so strict, and most believe that Iran is after the money and that UAE has also become a more open country than other countries in the region, even though many countries seem to be heading in the same direction.
So far today, Abu Dhabi has been very calm, got some reports from colleagues in Dubai that it has also been calm there, so keeping my fingers crossed that it can last a little longer but not entirely sure about it.
I also noticed that the GPS is completely down here, was going to run my usual route and the GPS watch kind of gave up, it was ticking off kilometers when it felt like it. But it is understandable that the GPS system does not work under these circumstances.
Watched a video on a Chinese ship whose instruments were just spinning – impossible to know right now what is fabricated or not but everyone in the area has turned on all the telemetry they have available, that’s what we can assume.
Went for a short run 🤣🤣
What do you work with or is it a secret?
The anti-aircraft battery that shot down three F15s?
No, it was a really fast and long lap according to the clock, probably in the top tier in the world 🙂
I work with software at a company in the defense industry, so I’m mostly a software nerd and probably should have stayed in my parents’ basement drinking my Jolt cola.
Good career choice if nothing else, especially in times of unrest 😀
Imagine the stories you can tell at all family gatherings in Sweden after this, and since no one knows, you can embellish as you like 👍
Then we are two in place.
Had a hard time ordering food delivery the other day. GPS thought I was 20 miles out to sea and Careem doesn’t deliver there 😅 Flightradar was also completely bananas with airplanes teleporting back and forth.
Wow. What a king 👑:
”JOHAN NO.1
• 2022-02-24 17:56- 17:56:40
Starting to see more comments about “USA expects Kiev to fall in a few days”. Kiev has millions of inhabitants and is therefore not a small city. The lines at the recruitment offices are miles long and virtually everyone has been in some kind of conflict in the east since 2014, so it’s not exactly Swedish overly pampered woke-generation youths picking up weapons. I would be very surprised if Kiev falls, they should be able to conduct a partisan struggle in that city for months, so the above message is probably considered propaganda to spread unrest. A Kalashnikov and an anti-tank missile will take you far in combat in the area. If Kiev falls, Ukraine falls, so they are probably prepared to die on that hill.”
Looking forward to today’s reading! 👍
😀
Thank you for a very interesting post, Johan no 1!
You asked a question about why “Charles de Gaulle” visited Malmö. That question I can answer. The final push for the French to flatter Sweden regarding the sale of 4 frigates to the Swedish navy. Macron and Rutte had a lot of shady dealings when it came to submarines for the Netherlands. Saab was close but France won the order. The Germans appealed but not Saab.
Now they are trying to cover this up by showing their best side to Swedish politicians and military. Never before has France praised Sweden to such a mild degree as now.
They even want to help Sweden sell Gripen to Ukraine.
However, they visited the wrong port to impress. All Malmö residents of my age remember how Kockums “spat out” ships that were 100 meters longer and equally wide, despite the hangar deck and double draught.
No, to impress a Scanian, you have to come up with something better.
However, the world’s largest hull was not built in Malmö but in Uddevalla. T/T Nanny for Onstad in Kungsbacka 1979. That record probably still stands. Bigger than the bragging USS Gerald Ford.
“Nanny” was so tall that it couldn’t pass under the Tjörn bridge. The chimney and upper mast had to be assembled in Gothenburg.
Thank you for the information, I had no idea about that!
Thank you, then I’m in – it left quickly for MENA anyway 😀
N Slobozhansky-Kursk 0
S Slobozhansky 2
Kupyansk 5↗️
Lyman 20💥↗️
Slovyansk 10💥
Kramatorsk 0
Kostjantynivka 17💥↗️
Pokrovsk 25💥💥
Oleksandrivskij 11💥↗️
Huliaipole 25💥💥↘️
Orikhivsk 2
Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 0
Sum sectors 107🇷🇺
Unlocalized 37(🇺🇦)↘️
Total 144↘️
Thank you Johan for another great yellow wall. What worries me is that Swedish mainstream media does not support the US campaign against the mullahs of Iran. Check the headlines on Google within Chrome. Instead, SvD now echoes the Democrats in Congress’ view on “no plan in Iran” and “division”. Expressen also publishes the same US-negative narrative. The hatred towards Trump trumps everything. They also don’t like the Tidö government. Ebba Busch is said to be creating “fear” in Brussels. I keep a close eye on what is being said on Google in Chrome. The pattern is clear if you visit there a couple of times a day. If the US does something good, it’s still considered bad because it’s Trump and the “right” acting. Polarization in the West is a curse. Our mainstream media are closely linked to the liberal world order. One is blind if they do not see that.
I’m a bit curious about what you mean by the links in Google Chrome?
I have a clean installation of Chrome and when I start the browser, I only see Google’s search field.
Do you get a lot of news? I’m a bit curious where they come from in that case.
In Microsoft Edge, on the other hand, I immediately get a news feed with ads, etc. from msn (unless you manually choose to disable it). The quality of the content is not particularly high (very “Clickbait” oriented even though the news comes from many different sources).
Google/Chrome may have done just like Edge by adding a default page with a feed.
Yes, it’s a feed with highlights from various media outlets. Bonnier and Schibsted have several such as Omni, which, like TT, is co-owned by Bonnier and Schibsted. But you also have things like Dagens PS and much more such as Dagens Arena or NSD in Norrbotten or Kuriren in Eskilstuna. Even Sveriges Radio and TV post highlights. The reason I visit here often is because Google’s quick menu is here with my 6-7 most visited pages, including Johan no. 1, Djurgårdens IF, and more.
I have Chrome+Android.
Ok. Still seems to be a slightly better mix than it is in Edge.
I don’t have it on either my phone or computer. Maybe something preinstalled that has appeared recently, my phone is starting to be a few years old.
Oops, Can you choose to remove all the junk that appears when starting Edge?
Yes, the media cannot handle this.
Iran was necessary.
The team has had four good years behind them but now it’s still an election year and anything goes.
The political morality seems to come first. But there is a more long-term stable morality that is about right and wrong and good and evil. It’s kind of disconnected. Apres moi le Deluge once said Charles de Gaulle.
That’s the one you are absolutely right about.
Very infected debate climate and the worst part is all the issues you are NOT ALLOWED to have a different opinion about, which you KNOW is madness.
Apathetic refugee children and unaccompanied children were two things you were beheaded for questioning, and they were torture (correct definition) of children, and then men who got a free ride with taxpayer money when they pretended to be 15.
Now it’s women who have to share with men, and you can get prison time if you call the man “man”.
See the picture posted on Stefan Löfven’s Facebook. Should we believe, and does Löfven believe, that everyone in the photo is under 18? (Once you turn 18, you are no longer formally considered an (unaccompanied) child.
https://m.facebook.com/stefanlofven/photos/idag-bes%C3%B6kte-jag-ett-boende-f%C3%B6r-ensamkommande-flyktingbarn-ungdomarna-ber%C3%A4ttade-/968352329872328/
Well, I haven’t thought about it, but it’s just as you write with short and long-term morals.
The Kremlin is now getting what they deserve, and even though it was wrong not to bring it up with the congress or the UN, it was something that had to be done sooner or later. And in my opinion, international law must be about protecting the people, not regimes that terrorize the people, their own or others.
Putin and the entire top 10 layers of their power pyramid should receive the same treatment.
Many are probably wondering what Trump or relevant advisors have in mind. When they struck against Maduro, it seems they didn’t have the best interests of the people in mind. Is it the same here? Will a compliant dictator be appointed instead? But now that this is happening, we should try to steer events in the best possible way, to the extent that we can anticipate what will be good. Iran has seen stormy weather for a long time and is now reaping the storm. The newspaper Dagen is probably one of the Swedish newspapers that has the best conditions to cover Iran in an interesting way. The editorial yesterday was “A free Iran is a dream for the entire Middle East. But no one can trust that Trump is a reliable liberator.”
Like that, simply.
Yes, they will probably try to bring in a US-friendly leader, of course, but when the dust settles, the new leaders will likely be indebted to the US, so they will probably be US-friendly by default.
Recommend reading the entire post that Johan No.1 has taken parts of (even if some of you are allergic to the other blog, it is an interesting piece of history):
“Putin declares war on Ukraine – attacks with robots, artillery – very intense ground battles are ongoing after attacks across the border in several places”
https://cornucopia.se/2022/02/putin-forklarar-krig-mot-ukraina-inleder-anfall-med-syfte-att-utplana-ukrainas-militar-flyganfall-pagar-explosioner-i-kyjiv-och-charkiv/
We hope that Cornucopia will advertise this site as well.
Sometimes it happens there too (although it’s not LW linking from there of course)…
We take over the world
“💥🛳️ On March 3, the Russian gas tanker “Arctic Metagas” was attacked by unknown drones off the coast of Malta from the Libyan side. The crew of 30 sailors was rescued (according to the Russians)”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mg7w2h7x6s2g
“Belgien sätter 10 miljoner euro borgen för häktad rysk skuggflotta-tankern Ethera”
“🇺🇦 Ukrainian Air Defence shot down or suppressed 129/149 drones!”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mg7vghrlc22g
🇺🇸 Trump administration will meet top U.S. defense contractors (Lockheed Martin, RTX/Raytheon, others) at the White House to speed up weapons production as U.S. stockpiles have been strained by conflicts including Iran, Ukraine, and Gaza, – Reuters
The Pentagon is preparing a ~$50 billion supplemental budget to replenish stockpiles and increase output of key weapons like Tomahawk cruise missiles (target production up to 1,000 per year).
Laughed a bit at this comment below the post above:
“Trump often said that Ukraine should not have started a war ( they didn’t) without enough weaponry. How the US is doing precisely that
Such nobs”
https://bsky.app/profile/empar65.bsky.social/post/3mg7we44tls2v
There is an expression that goes “filled with one’s own importance”. It fits well with Trump.
“❗️Fighters of the 🇺🇦80th Separate Air Assault Brigade detected and destroyed a 🇷🇺Russian logistics base using fiber-optic-controlled drones. Several UAZ «Bukhanka» vans, a quad bike, and off-road vehicles were hit.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mg7utzb5qk2v
🔴 This morning, a Russian drone struck an empty train in Mykolaiv. A rail worker was injured in the attack. The company said that since the beginning of March, Russian forces have targeted the railway 18 times, an average of six strikes per day.
“❗️Russian “Z-blogger” reported that during a massive strike on port infrastructure in Novorossiysk on March 2, 2026, five Russian vessels were damaged. One, Valentin Pikul, was very severely damaged. The blogger reports 3 dead and 16 injured.”
https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3mg7uqhbnzc2r
❗️Tonight, Russian air defense shot down its own 🇷🇺Mi-8 helicopter while attempting to repel a 🇺🇦Ukrainian drone attack in the Rostov region. The helicopter crew was killed.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mg7plrta2c2v
🤣🤣🤣
“😎 Lasar’s Group and 29th Unmanned Systems Regiment Achilles destroyed Russian S-400 launcher in Belgorod region !”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mg7woqtlc22g
Tomorrow’s post about ua is going very well
“Representatives of Iran’s intelligence department are said to have contacted the USA behind the scenes to try to initiate negotiations to end the war. Sources with insight told the New York Times. The contact is said to have been made already the day after the American-Israeli attacks began, despite Iran outwardly firmly denying that the country wants to negotiate.
The contact was made through a third country’s intelligence service.
Several government sources in Washington that the newspaper spoke to, however, are skeptical whether any of the countries are actually ready for serious talks about de-escalation.
Israel is said to have urged the USA to ignore the request, and it is currently not being taken seriously in Washington.” https://omni.se/kallor-iran-har-kontaktat-usa-om-forhandlingar/a/6q9RoL
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-intelligence-operatives-signalled-openness-talks-with-cia-end-war-nyt-2026-03-04/
The entire elite has already packed their bags and are ready to leave.
Hypocrites.
The question is where? Ryz?
At least 101 crew members are missing after an Iranian ship was sunk by a submarine off the coast of Sri Lanka, according to a source within the Sri Lankan navy speaking to Reuters. 78 crew members are reported to have been rescued, with 32 of them said to be seriously injured.
The information about the missing crew is denied by a spokesperson for the Sri Lankan navy. However, the spokesperson confirms the information that 32 people have been rescued.
According to AFP, the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena is involved. A distress signal was sent out during the early hours, about 40 kilometers off the coast of Sri Lanka, after an explosion. A search operation by Sri Lankan authorities was launched shortly thereafter.
It is unclear which country the submarine, reportedly responsible for sinking the frigate, belongs to.
It probably takes 4 days from the Strait of Hormuz to Sri Lanka. Has the crew deserted? If so, before the war broke out. Why is an American submarine pursuing and even sinking a fleeing frigate? Could it have happened near the island of Socotra off Aden instead? If it happened at all???
The Iranian frigate has apparently been in India where they have had a joint exercise with the Indians. Read about it in DN now.
The movies you will find in the post on substack.
MXT, it’s not possible to embed movies when posting, I can’t manage it?
They must be embedded correctly, it is not enough to just paste a link.
When you are editing, place the cursor where you want the video to appear (preferably in its own paragraph).
At the top left next to the logo, there is a blue button with a +.
Click on it.
Then all types of blocks that can be inserted are displayed in the left column, with a search box at the top.
Search for video and you will find, for example, “Embedding from YouTube” (+ YT symbol). Click on it to insert that block into the text, and then you can paste the embed link to the video from YT.
This is so that WordPress knows which type of video player to use when displaying the video (for example, to make it work on mobile devices, etc.)
One might think they should have automated this (and sometimes it actually does solve it automatically), but regular WP is free so they probably don’t have unlimited time to dedicate to all the features everyone wants.
😶
Krister Sfeir does not believe that the regime will fall; he didn’t even mention it on the radio.
Israel’s goal is regime change, and the USA does not burn this many dollars on a ceasefire.
Israel is now dropping dumb bombs on Iranian targets by air – the air defense is probably non-existent.
They are targeting all IRGC and police targets they can reach, foolish as they were, they had not moved out, but now they have moved into residential areas and schools.
The Kurds are also activated, and US+Israel Special Operations Forces are now in Iran.
US losses?
So insanely difficult to know what is true, saw some video of hits on ships but the US will probably remain silent about any losses for a while.
However, China should release satellite images immediately – most likely nothing has happened.
The Iranian navy is sunk – idiots.
I might have mentioned this before, but I’m wondering if there are any architects behind Trump who want to go after Russia and are thinking, “We can’t get the guy to strike against Russia, but we CAN find justifications for strikes against its ‘allies'”.
Putins support for the war is decreasing
🇲🇹
Russian transport ministry has confirmed a Ukrainian naval drone hit a Russian oil tanker 100km off Malta in the Mediterranean Sea.
That is a significant strike almost 2000+ Kilometres from the Ukrainian mainland…
warmonitor3
“❗️🇺🇦Ukrainian MiG-29MU1 fighter destroys a 🇷🇺Russian base using 🇺🇸American GBU-62 guided glide bombs”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mgaqmicz2s2s
Thank you for a comprehensive and good yellow wall.
One can only hope that this war in Iran will lead to something good for the Iranians and the entire Middle East.
I am once again pleasantly surprised at how poor their defense is. Admittedly, some of it was bombed away in June, and their defense mostly consists of Russian material, which works best on their own helicopters or passenger planes. Their navy, which was supposed to keep the Hormuz closed, sank in their ports.
At the same time, I am also, like Johan, surprised that the presumed Chinese material has not performed better, maybe it doesn’t exist, or has it not been allowed to be used? I wonder if Xi sleeps well at night if it turns out that it didn’t work, and Taiwan is filled with American material.
When I saw that three American planes had crashed, I thought, oh, now they have used Chinese air defense, but it was just friendly fire, someone apparently forgot their glasses on the nightstand.
Could it be that the West’s (USA’s) weapons and electronic warfare are so superior that air superiority is guaranteed from the very beginning. Almost as if one is afraid of the megalomania that hits the White House if Iran cannot offer more resistance than this.
The war is not over yet, but I don’t think the Iranian mullah regime can offer resistance for much longer, when they are attacked from both outside and inside. Like many “mature” dictatorships, the army, or in this case the Revolutionary Guard, has been sized and trained to protect the regime from the people. Killing civilian demonstrators who are tightly packed on streets and squares is easy compared to defending against two advanced foreign powers.
They will shoot wildly in all directions with missiles and drones, and will surely cause a lot of trouble, but the mullahs are dead men walking.
Then one really hopes that the USA and Israel are ready to follow through with what they have started, and support the Iranian people until they have regained power. An Iraq, Syria, or Afghanistan scenario in a country the size of Iran would be a nightmare for the entire Middle East and Europe, and a gift to a chaos-loving Russia.
Iran 🇮🇷
ANALYSE – Opération Epic Fury : Trump décapite le régime iranien et met Obama face à son échec historique
Réalisation Le Lab Le Diplo
Par Angélique Bouchard
Dans un tournant historique qui redessine la carte stratégique du Moyen-Orient, les forces américaines et israéliennes ont lancé l’opération Epic Fury, une campagne de frappes aériennes d’une précision inédite qui a éliminé le Guide suprême Ali Khamenei et porté un coup décisif au cœur du régime des mollahs. Tandis que Donald Trump s’adressait directement au peuple iranien pour l’inviter à « prendre le contrôle de son gouvernement », les critiques de l’aile gauche démocrate et des héritiers de l’ère Obama ont fusé, accusant Washington d’« agression illégale ». Pour les partisans du président, cette opération marque au contraire la fin d’années d’illusion diplomatique et la restauration d’une dissuasion crédible face à un régime qui menaçait de franchir le seuil nucléaire.
Le 28 février 2026, peu après 9 heures locales, les forces armées des États-Unis et d’Israël ont déclenché l’opération Epic Fury, une campagne aérienne d’une précision chirurgicale contre les sites militaires, balistiques et nucléaires du régime iranien.
Dans une adresse diffusée sur Truth Social, le président Donald Trump s’est tourné directement vers le peuple iranien : « L’heure de votre liberté est arrivée. Restez à l’abri. Ne sortez pas de chez vous. C’est très dangereux dehors. Les bombes vont tomber partout. Quand nous aurons terminé, prenez le contrôle de votre gouvernement. Il sera à vous. » Il a qualifié la mission de « noble », destinée à défendre les Américains en éliminant les menaces imminentes d’une « dictature radicale et perverse », tout en reconnaissant lucidement le risque de pertes : « Cela arrive souvent dans la guerre. »
Pour la première fois depuis des décennies, un président américain offrait aux Iraniens une opportunité historique de reprendre leur destin, après quarante-sept années de théocratie, de répression interne et d’expansion terroriste régionale. L’élimination ciblée d’Ali Khamenei, dont le complexe et les bureaux ont été réduits en ruines au cœur de Téhéran, marque un tournant dont les conséquences stratégiques dépassent de loin le seul champ de bataille.
Cette décision, prise après l’échec répété des négociations et face à un régime qui avait franchi le seuil critique d’enrichissement nucléaire, a aussitôt révélé les lignes de fracture les plus profondes de la politique étrangère américaine.
La « Squad » et l’aile progressiste : un discours d’indignation morale face à la réalité des menaces
Dès les premières heures, les figures les plus emblématiques de la gauche démocrate radicale ont formulé leur opposition avec une vigueur qui mêle conviction humanitaire et critique constitutionnelle.
La Représentante Ilhan Omar (Démocrate du Minnesota) a dénoncé une « guerre illégale de changement de régime », rappelant son propre passé de réfugiée somalienne : « En tant que quelqu’un qui a survécu aux horreurs de la guerre, je sais que les frappes militaires ne nous rendront pas plus sûrs ; elles attiseront les tensions et plongeront davantage la région dans le chaos. Quand nous abandonnons la diplomatie, nous choisissons la destruction. »
Rashida Tlaib (Démocrate du Michigan), reprenant un extrait où le président évoquait le risque de pertes américaines, a écrit : « Il ne se soucie pas de nos proches dans l’armée. Il ne se soucie pas du fait que les Américains ne veulent pas de cette guerre. Il ne se soucie pas du peuple iranien. Il est corrompu. Ne tombez pas dans le panneau des mensonges. » Le message a été aussitôt relayé par Ilhan Omar.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (Démocrate de New York) a qualifié l’opération de « catastrophique » : « Le peuple américain est une fois de plus entraîné dans une guerre qu’il ne voulait pas par un président qui ne se soucie pas des conséquences à long terme de ses actes. Cette guerre est illégale. Elle est inutile. Et elle sera catastrophique. » Elle a insisté sur le fait que, « juste cette semaine encore, l’Iran et les États-Unis négociaient des mesures clés qui auraient pu éviter la guerre », accusant le président d’avoir « tourné le dos à ces discussions » et choisi « délibérément l’agression » tout en « mentant au peuple américain ».
Greg Casar (Démocrate du Texas) a complété le réquisitoire en parlant d’une « guerre insensée de changement de régime » où « un président américain envoie les enfants des autres risquer leur vie ».
Ces voix, bien que portées par une sincère aversion pour l’usage de la force, peinent à intégrer la nature structurelle du régime iranien : premier sponsor mondial du terrorisme, finançant un réseau de proxies qui déstabilise quatre capitales arabes. L’accusation d’avoir « abandonné la diplomatie » ignore les années d’avertissements répétés de Donald Trump et la volonté explicite du régime de reconstituer son programme nucléaire malgré les pourparlers.
À lire aussi : PORTRAIT – Ali Khamenei : L’énigmatique gardien de la théocratie iranienne
Le positionnement d’Obama : pari diplomatique, lignes rouges effacées et legs d’une faiblesse perçue
Le positionnement de Barack Obama face à l’Iran s’est articulé autour de deux piliers qui, rétrospectivement, apparaissent comme les deux faces d’une même illusion stratégique.
D’abord, la célèbre « ligne rouge » tracée en 2012 sur l’usage d’armes chimiques en Syrie – promesse solennelle de frappe punitive si Bachar al-Assad franchissait ce seuil. Lorsque Damas a employé le sarin en 2013, Washington a choisi la négociation avec Moscou plutôt que l’action militaire, transformant une menace crédible en symbole d’hésitation.
Cette séquence a envoyé un signal clair à Téhéran : les engagements américains pouvaient être renégociés ou abandonnés sans coût majeur.
Le second pilier, et le plus déterminant, fut le JCPOA de juillet 2015. Négocié par John Kerry et Ben Rhodes sous l’égide de l’administration Obama, l’accord reposait sur un pari optimiste : en échange d’un plafonnement temporaire de l’enrichissement, d’une réduction du stock d’uranium enrichi et d’un régime de vérification renforcé par l’AIEA, l’Iran recevrait la levée progressive des sanctions multilatérales et le dégel d’actifs évalués entre 100 et 150 milliards de dollars. L’objectif affiché était de créer les conditions d’une évolution interne du régime, d’ancrer Téhéran dans un ordre régional stabilisé et de reporter indéfiniment la menace nucléaire.
Or, dès la signature, les critiques conservatrices ont pointé les failles structurelles : absence de limitation sur les missiles balistiques, clauses de caducité (sunset clauses) à horizon 2025-2030, et surtout l’afflux massif de liquidités qui, loin de modérer le régime, a permis au Corps des gardiens de la révolution de moderniser son arsenal, de réarmer le Hezbollah à plus de 150 000 roquettes, de soutenir les Houthis dans leur guerre d’usure et d’étendre son emprise sur Bagdad, Damas, Beyrouth et Sanaa. Lorsque Donald Trump s’est retiré de l’accord en mai 2018, il n’a fait que constater son échec : l’Iran avait repris son ascension nucléaire, enrichissant l’uranium à des niveaux proches du seuil militaire, tout en continuant à déstabiliser la région avec les fonds obtenus sous Obama.
Ainsi, le positionnement d’Obama – mélange de multilatéralisme idéaliste et de réticence à l’usage de la force – a créé les conditions objectives de l’escalade que l’on observe aujourd’hui. En privilégiant la diplomatie sans rapport de force crédible, en acceptant un accord qui légitimait le programme nucléaire iranien tout en le finançant indirectement, l’administration démocrate a offert au régime des mollahs huit années de répit stratégique. L’opération Epic Fury et la décapitation de Khamenei apparaissent dès lors non comme une rupture arbitraire, mais comme la correction historique d’une faiblesse perçue qui avait fini par menacer la sécurité d’Israël, des alliés du Golfe et des intérêts américains eux-mêmes.
Ben Rhodes, le JCPOA et la politique de pression maximale : les deux faces d’un même échec doctrinal
Le débat n’a pas tardé à rejoindre l’héritage de l’administration Obama. Ben Rhodes, architecte central du Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action de 2015, a critiqué Trump et Netanyahu pour sembler « totalement indifférents au sort des êtres humains – de tous côtés – qui vont souffrir », qualifiant le second mandat trumpien de « pire scénario imaginable ».
La riposte conservatrice fut immédiate et sans concession. Marc Thiessen : « Oui, nous étions bien mieux lotis avec un président qui traçait des lignes rouges et ne les faisait pas respecter. L’équipe Obama ferait mieux de s’asseoir celle-ci. »
Richard Grenell : « Vous faisiez partie de l’équipe qui a donné des milliards de dollars au régime iranien – vous avez aidé à financer cette terreur sur les êtres humains. Une fois de plus, le président Trump nettoie votre bazar. »
Matthew Brodsky a vu en Rhodes un « agent d’influence sans colonne vertébrale » du régime des mollahs ; Tim Murtaugh a ironisé sur « l’équipe Obama qui pleure pour les mollahs » ; Bonchie a rappelé l’évidence : « Vous aviez huit ans pour agir. Au lieu de cela, vous avez tout fait pour préserver un régime islamiste. Vous avez créé ces circonstances. »
Cette controverse renvoie à une divergence doctrinale fondamentale qui structure encore aujourd’hui le débat américain sur l’Iran. Le JCPOA de 2015 reposait sur le pari optimiste que des incitations économiques massives – le dégel de milliards de dollars d’actifs et la levée progressive des sanctions multilatérales – conjuguées à un régime de vérification, pourraient infléchir un régime idéologique et eschatologique.
Or, loin de modérer Téhéran, ces liquidités ont permis au Corps des gardiens de la révolution et à son réseau de proxies (Hezbollah, Houthis, milices chiites irakiennes et syriennes) de se réarmer et d’étendre son emprise régionale, tandis que les clauses de caducité laissaient intacte la capacité future du régime à reprendre librement son ascension nucléaire. L’absence de toute limitation sur les missiles balistiques et sur l’activité déstabilisatrice régionale a achevé de rendre l’accord inopérant face à une théocratie qui n’a jamais renoncé à ses objectifs ultimes.
En se retirant de cet accord en 2018, Donald Trump a rétabli une politique de pression maximale : sanctions secondaires extraterritoriales, élimination ciblée de Qassem Soleimani en 2020, strangulation délibérée des revenus pétroliers.
Cette approche a certes provoqué des soulèvements internes et affaibli l’économie iranienne, mais elle a surtout contraint le régime à révéler sa vraie nature en accélérant son programme nucléaire en réponse.
L’opération Epic Fury apparaît dès lors non comme une rupture brutale, mais comme l’aboutissement logique et nécessaire de cette pression : la correction historique d’une illusion diplomatique dont les conséquences se mesurent aujourd’hui en seuils de prolifération critiques et en menace existentielle pour Israël et les intérêts américains.
À lire aussi : ANALYSE – Obama, Harris et la casse du Parti Démocrate : Le combat caché pour la Maison Blanche
Le débat constitutionnel : prérogatives présidentielles et le spectre des « guerres sans fin »
Parallèlement, une opposition transpartisane s’est cristallisée autour de la question des pouvoirs de guerre. Le Républicain Thomas Massie (représentant du Kentucky) a dénoncé des « actes de guerre non autorisés par le Congrès » et déclaré : « Je m’oppose à cette guerre. Ce n’est pas “America First”. »
Au sein du Gang of Eight, Jim Himes (démocrate du Connecticut) a parlé d’une « guerre de choix sans objectif stratégique final », Mark Warner (démocrate de Virginie) a rappelé « les erreurs du passé » et exigé « un objectif clair, une stratégie pour empêcher l’escalade ». Tim Kaine (démocrate de Virginie) a qualifié l’action de « colossal mistake » et d’« idiotic ».
Ces objections, ancrées dans l’article I de la Constitution, soulèvent une question récurrente depuis 1945. Le représentant républicain Rick Crawford a rappelé que Trump avait posé une « ligne rouge » claire dès le début des négociations.
Le sénateur Roger Wicker a salué une « action décisive » contre « le premier proliférateur mondial de terrorisme », avec des objectifs précis : empêcher l’arme nucléaire, dégrader les missiles balistiques, détruire les capacités navales et terroristes. Le président, en tant que chasseur après avoir été la proie (allusion aux tentatives d’assassinat iraniennes post-Soleimani), a agi dans le cadre de ses prérogatives face à un danger qualifié d’« imminent ».
*
* *
Un tournant historique et ses incertitudes
Le 28 février 2026 restera comme le jour où Donald Trump, fidèle à sa promesse solennelle de ne jamais permettre à « l’acteur numéro un du terrorisme mondial » de posséder l’arme nucléaire, a choisi non l’aventure, mais la responsabilité historique. Face aux appels à la retenue de la « Squad », aux mises en garde rétrospectives de Ben Rhodes et aux objections constitutionnelles du Gang of Eight, l’histoire retiendra moins les tweets d’indignation que le résultat concret : une théocratie décapitée, un peuple iranien invité pour la première fois à reprendre son destin, et une Amérique qui, après des années d’hésitation et d’illusions, a de nouveau assumé le poids de sa puissance.
L’avenir immédiat reste chargé d’incertitudes. La disparition de Khamenei, autocrate calculateur qui alternait avancées tactiques et replis idéologiques depuis 1989, ouvre un vide de pouvoir dont les scénarios sont multiples : succession dynastique par Mojtaba Khamenei, prise de contrôle par les ultras du Corps des gardiens de la révolution, ou, à l’inverse, fragmentation ethnique (Kurdes, Baloutches, Arabes du Khouzistan) propice à un changement interne imprévisible. Les proxies régionaux – du Hezbollah aux Houthis – réagiront-ils par une escalade immédiate ou par un repli tactique face à une dissuasion restaurée ? Le prix du baril s’envolera-t-il durablement, offrant à Moscou et Pékin un levier supplémentaire dans leur jeu multipolaire ?
Dans un Moyen-Orient où la Chine et la Russie fournissent à Téhéran drones, missiles et couverture diplomatique au Conseil de sécurité, l’opération Epic Fury envoie un message clair aux adversaires stratégiques de Washington : la période de retrait relatif et d’apaisement est terminée. Elle réaffirme que la puissance américaine, lorsqu’elle est exercée avec détermination, précision et sans visée d’occupation interminable, peut modifier les équilibres régionaux sans s’enliser. Elle témoigne surtout d’une conviction simple et ancienne, souvent oubliée par les tenants d’une diplomatie sans rapport de force : face à un régime qui ne comprend que la force, l’illusion de l’apaisement n’est qu’une invitation au chaos.
L’histoire jugera si cette restauration de la dissuasion ouvre une ère de stabilité relative ou si les spirales anciennes reprendront le dessus. Pour l’heure, elle consacre le retour d’une Realpolitik assumée, où la fermeté n’est plus une faute, mais la condition même d’une paix durable au XXIe siècle.
À lire aussi : DÉCRYPTAGE – Operation Epic Fury : Le seuil dangereux de l’affrontement direct
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Diplômée de la Business School de La Rochelle (Excelia – Bachelor Communication et Stratégies Digitales) et du CELSA – Sorbonne Université, Angélique Bouchard, 25 ans, est titulaire d’un Master 2 de recherche, spécialisation « Géopolitique des médias ». Elle est journaliste indépendante et travaille pour de nombreux médias. Elle est en charge des grands entretiens pour Le Dialogue.
Believe the translation went haywire 🎰
Reflection Anniversary Ukraine March 4, 2026
ANALYSIS – Operation Epic Fury: Trump executes the Iranian regime and confronts Obama with his historic failure
By Angélique Bouchard / 04.03.2026
1/5
In a historic turning point reshaping the strategic map of the Middle East, American and Israeli forces have launched Operation Epic Fury, a campaign of unparalleled precision airstrikes that have eliminated the top leader Ali Khamenei and dealt a decisive blow to the heart of the mullahs’ regime. While Donald Trump addressed the Iranian people directly, urging them to “take control of their government,” criticism came from the Democratic left wing and heirs to the Obama era, accusing Washington of “illegal aggression.” For the president’s supporters, this operation marks the end of years of diplomatic illusions and the restoration of a credible deterrence against a regime that threatened to cross the nuclear threshold.
On February 28, 2026, shortly after 9 a.m. local time, the armed forces of the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury, a surgically precise air campaign against the Iranian regime’s military, ballistic, and nuclear facilities.
In an address broadcast on Truth Social, President Donald Trump spoke directly to the Iranian people: “Your voice of freedom has come. Stay indoors. Do not go out. It is very dangerous outside. The bombs will fall everywhere. When we are done, take control of your government. It will belong to you.” He described the mission as “noble,” intended to defend Americans by eliminating the looming threats from a “radical and perverse dictatorship,” while clearly acknowledging the risk of losses: “It often happens in war.”
2/5
For the first time in decades, an American president offered Iranians a historic opportunity to regain control of their destiny, after 47 years of theocracy, internal repression, and regional terrorist expansion. The targeted elimination of Ali Khamenei, whose complex and office in central Tehran have been reduced to ruins, marks a turning point with strategic consequences that extend far beyond the battlefield.
This decision, made after repeated failed negotiations and in the face of a regime that had crossed the critical threshold for uranium enrichment, immediately exposed the deepest fault lines in American foreign policy.
“Squad” and the progressive wing: a speech of moral indignation in the face of real threats
From the outset, the most symbolic figures within the radical Democratic left expressed their opposition with a force that blended humanitarian conviction and constitutional criticism.
Representative Ilhan Omar (Democrat from Minnesota) condemned an “illegal war for regime change” and recalled her own background as a Somali refugee: “As someone who has survived the horrors of war, I know that military attacks will not make us safer; they will increase tensions and plunge the region into even greater chaos. When we abandon diplomacy, we choose destruction.”
Rashida Tlaib (Democrat from Michigan) quoted a passage where the president mentioned the risk of American losses and wrote: “He does not care about our loved ones in the military. He does not care that Americans do not want this war. He does not care about the Iranian people. He is corrupt. Do not fall for the lies.” The message was immediately echoed by Ilhan Omar.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (Democrat from New York) described the operation as “disastrous”: “The American people are once again being dragged into a war they did not want by a president who does not care about the long-term consequences of his actions. This war is illegal. It is senseless. And it will be catastrophic.” She emphasized that “just this week, Iran and the USA were negotiating important measures that could have prevented the war” and accused the president of “turning his back on these discussions” and “deliberately choosing aggression” while “lying to the American people.”
Greg Casar (Democrat from Texas) added to the accusation by speaking of a “senseless war for regime change” where “an American president sends other people’s children to risk their lives.”
These voices, though driven by a sincere aversion to the use of violence, struggle to understand the structural nature of the Iranian regime: the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism, funding a network of proxies destabilizing four Arab capitals. The accusation of “abandoning diplomacy” overlooks Donald Trump’s repeated warnings over several years and the regime’s explicit intent to resume its nuclear weapons program despite the negotiations.
3/5
Read also: PORTRAIT – Ali Khamenei: The enigmatic guardian of the Iranian theocracy
Obama’s positioning: diplomatic gamble, blurred boundaries, and a legacy of perceived weakness
Barack Obama’s approach to Iran was built on two pillars that in hindsight appear as two sides of the same strategic illusion.
First, the famous “red line” drawn in 2012 regarding the use of chemical weapons in Syria – a solemn promise of consequences if Bashar al-Assad crossed that line. When Damascus used sarin in 2013, Washington chose to negotiate with Moscow instead of taking military action, turning a credible threat into a sign of hesitation.
This sequence of events sent a clear signal to Tehran: American commitments could be renegotiated or abandoned at minimal cost.
The second and most decisive pillar was the JCPOA of July 2015. The agreement, negotiated by John Kerry and Ben Rhodes during the Obama administration, was based on an optimistic gamble: in exchange for a temporary restriction on enrichment, a reduction of enriched uranium stocks, and an enhanced monitoring system by the IAEA, Iran would receive a gradual lifting of multilateral sanctions and access to assets valued between $100 and $150 billion. The stated goal was to create conditions for internal development of the regime, anchor Tehran in a stabilized regional order, and postpone the nuclear threat indefinitely.
But from the outset, conservative critics pointed out structural flaws: the absence of restrictions on ballistic missiles, sunset clauses with a horizon of 2025-2030, and above all, the massive influx of liquid assets that, far from tempering the regime, allowed the Revolutionary Guard to modernize its weapons arsenal, rearm Hezbollah with over 150,000 rockets, support the Houthis in their attrition war, and expand its grip on Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, and Sanaa. When Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement in May 2018, he simply stated that it had failed: Iran had resumed its nuclear rearmament and enriched uranium to levels near the military threshold, while continuing to destabilize the region with the means obtained during the Obama era.
Obama’s posture – a mixture of idealistic multilateralism and reluctance to use violence – thus created the objective conditions for the escalation we see today. By prioritizing diplomacy without credible power balance and accepting an agreement that legitimized Iran’s nuclear program while indirectly financing it, the democratic administration gave the mullahs’ regime eight years of strategic respite. Therefore, Operation Epic Fury and the execution of Khamenei do not appear as arbitrary interruptions, but as a historical correction of a perceived weakness that ultimately threatened the security of Israel, allies in the Gulf region, and American interests themselves.
Ben Rhodes, JCPOA, and the policy of maximum pressure: two sides of the same doctrinal failure
The debate quickly reached Obama’s administration legacy. Ben Rhodes, the central architect behind the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action from 2015, criticized Trump and Netanyahu for appearing “completely indifferent to the fate of the people – on all sides – who will suffer” and described Trump’s second term as “the worst possible scenario.”
The conservative reaction was immediate and uncompromising. Marc Thiessen: “Yes, we were much better off with a president who drew red lines and made sure they were respected. Obama’s team should take it easy this time.”
Richard Grenell: “You were part of the team that gave billions of dollars to the Iranian regime – you helped finance this terror against people. Once again, President Trump is cleaning up after your mess.”
Matthew Brodsky saw Rhodes as a “spineless influencer” for the mullahs’ regime; Tim Murtaugh mocked “Obama’s team crying for the mullahs”; Bonchie reminded of the obvious: “You had eight years to act. Instead, you did everything to preserve an Islamist regime. You created these circumstances.”
4/5
This controversy refers to a fundamental doctrinal difference that still shapes the American debate on Iran. The 2015 JCPOA was based on the optimistic belief that massive economic incentives – the release of billions of dollars in assets and a gradual lifting of multilateral sanctions – combined with a control system could influence an ideological and eschatological regime.
But instead of tempering Tehran, these liquid assets have enabled the Revolutionary Guard and its network of proxies (Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iraqi and Syrian Shiite militias) to rearm and expand their regional influence, while the sunset clauses left the regime’s future ability to freely resume its nuclear armament intact. The absence of any limitations on ballistic missiles and destabilizing regional activities rendered the agreement ineffective against a theocracy that has never abandoned its ultimate goals.
By withdrawing from the agreement in 2018, Donald Trump reintroduced a policy of maximum pressure: extraterritorial secondary sanctions, targeted elimination of Qassem Soleimani in 2020, intentional choking of oil revenues.
This strategy has indeed sparked internal uprisings and weakened the Iranian economy, but above all, it has forced the regime to reveal its true nature by accelerating its nuclear program in response.
Therefore, Operation Epic Fury does not appear as a brutal break but as the logical and necessary consequence of this pressure: the historical correction of a diplomatic illusion whose consequences today can be measured in critical proliferation thresholds and an existential threat to Israel and American interests.
Also read: ANALYSIS – Obama, Harris, and the split within the Democratic Party: The hidden battle for the White House
The constitutional debate: presidential powers and the specter of “endless wars”
At the same time, a bipartisan opposition has crystallized around the issue of war powers. Republican Thomas Massie (representative from Kentucky) condemned “acts of war not authorized by Congress” and declared: “I oppose this war. It’s not ‘America First’.”
Within the Gang of Eight, Jim Himes (Democrat from Connecticut) spoke of an “optional war without a definitive strategic goal,” Mark Warner (Democrat from Virginia) recalled “past mistakes” and demanded “a clear objective, a strategy to prevent escalation.” Tim Kaine (Democrat from Virginia) called the action a “colossal mistake” and “idiotic.”
These objections, based on Article I of the Constitution, raise a question that has recurred since 1945. Republican representative Rick Crawford reminded that Trump had drawn a clear “red line” early in the negotiations.
Senator Roger Wicker praised a “decisive action” against the “world’s leading spreader of terrorism,” with clear goals: to prevent nuclear weapons, destroy ballistic missiles, and dismantle maritime and terrorist capabilities. The president, now a hunter after being prey (a reference to the Iranian assassination attempts after Soleimani), acted within the framework of his powers in the face of a danger described as “imminent.”
5/5
A historical turning point and its uncertainties
February 28, 2026, will remain the day when Donald Trump, true to his solemn promise never to allow “the foremost actor in global terrorism” access to nuclear weapons, chose not to gamble but to assume historical responsibility. Despite calls for restraint from the “Squad,” Ben Rhodes’ post-constructions, and the Gang of Eight’s constitutional objections, history will remember less the indignant tweets than the concrete result: an executed theocracy, an Iranian people urged for the first time to take back their fate in their own hands, and an America that after years of hesitation and illusions has once again taken on the burden of its power.
The immediate future is still full of uncertainties. Khamenei’s passing, a calculating autocrat who since 1989 has alternated between tactical advances and ideological retreats, opens a power vacuum with several possible scenarios: dynastic succession through Mojtaba Khamenei, a takeover by extremists in the Revolutionary Guard, or conversely, ethnic fragmentation (Kurds, Baluchis, Arabs in Khuzestan) that could lead to unpredictable internal changes. Will the regional proxies – from Hezbollah to the Houthis – react with immediate escalation or tactical retreat in the face of restored deterrence? Will the price of a barrel of oil rise permanently, giving Moscow and Beijing another tool in their multipolar game?
In a Middle East where China and Russia supply Tehran with drones, missiles, and diplomatic protection in the Security Council, operation Epic Fury sends a clear message to Washington’s strategic adversaries: the period of relative withdrawal and calm is over. It confirms that American power, when exercised with determination, precision, and without the aim of endless occupation, can alter the regional balance without getting stuck in a quagmire. Above all, it attests to a simple and old belief, often forgotten by advocates of a diplomacy without power balance: in the face of a regime that only understands power, the illusion of peace is just an invitation to chaos.
History will show whether this restoration of deterrence initiates an era of relative stability or if the old spirals resurface. Currently, it confirms the return of an obvious realpolitik, where firmness is no longer a flaw, but rather the prerequisite for lasting peace in the 21st century.
Also read: ANALYSIS – Operation Epic Fury: The dangerous threshold to direct confrontation
Angélique Bouchard, 25 years old, holds a degree from Business School in La Rochelle (Excelia – Bachelor’s degree in communication and digital strategies) and from CELSA – Sorbonne University, as well as a master’s degree in research focusing on “Media Geopolitics”. She is a freelance journalist working for several media outlets. She is responsible for major interviews for Le Dialogue.
https://lediplomate.media/analyse-operation-epic-fury-trump-decapite-regime-iranien-met-obama-face-echec-historique/
Off-topic, Ukraine 🇺🇦
Services of Ukraine:
Zelenskyy🇺🇦: ”I held a meeting on the situation in the Middle East and the Gulf region – the challenges for Ukraine and our partners, as well as our capacity to help protect lives, prevent the war from expanding, and stabilize global markets.
The Iranian regime, which is striving to survive at any cost, poses clear threats to all states in the region and to global stability. No country close to Iran can feel secure. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has practically stopped. So far, the Iranian regime has shown no genuine intent for honest diplomacy or fundamental change.
Ukraine is consulting with partners in Europe and the United States, as well as with countries neighboring Iran. Yesterday, I spoke with the leaders of the UAE and Qatar. Today, I held discussions with the leaders of Jordan and Bahrain. There will also be talks with Kuwait and other countries in the region. All of them face a serious challenge and speak openly about it: Iranian attack drones are the same “shaheds” that have been striking our cities, villages, and our Ukrainian infrastructure throughout this war.
In just a few days, Iran has launched over 800 missiles of various types and more than 1,400 attack drones. It is Iranian drones and missiles that pose the main threat to free navigation, destabilizing global prices for oil, petroleum products, and gas.
Ukraine can contribute to protecting lives and stabilizing the situation. Partners are reaching out to us. I have tasked Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, together with intelligence agencies, the Minister of Defense, our military command, and the NSDC Secretary, to present options for assisting the relevant countries and to provide aid in a way that does not weaken our own defense here in Ukraine.
Our military possesses the necessary capabilities. Ukrainian experts will operate on-site, and teams are already coordinating these efforts. And we are ready to help protect lives, defend civilians, and support real efforts to stabilize the situation and, in particular, restore safe navigation in the region.
We expect the European Union, European countries, and the G7 to take active measures both in dismantling the Iranian regime’s terrorist capabilities and in protecting lives in the region and global stability. We will continue to coordinate with our partners. Glory to Ukraine!”
Iran 🇮🇷: MAGA vs Trump
As President Donald Trump directs military strikes on Iran, he’s also fighting online attacks at home from some of the loudest voices in his MAGA political movement.
“This is Israel’s war. This is not the United States’ war,” former Fox News host Tucker Carlson said Tuesday on his weekly political podcast.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2026/03/04/trump-iran-maga-influencers/
Iran🇮🇷 Kurds Reports: Kurdish ground offensive in Iran
Kurdish militia groups have launched a ground offensive in northwestern Iran, according to American sources for Axios and Fox News. According to the reports to Fox News, cited by reporter Jennifer Griffin on X, it involves thousands of armed Iraqi Kurds operating on Iranian soil.
The reports come as Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Aragachi has hinted at something happening along the border, as reported by Al Jazeera.
Good morning!
900 KWIA
4 Tanks
7 AFVs (Armored Fighting Vehicles)
41 Artillery systems
1950 UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles)
210 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
1 Special equipment
Glory to Ukraine
https://bsky.app/profile/matsextrude.bsky.social/post/3mgc3v7eno22x