Today’s analysis was supposed to be about the global overall situation with a burning Iran and a receding Russia in Ukraine, but first, there had to be some Iran-related content after a long discussion on johanno1.se last Friday before we got too drunk and dropped off.
The post about the global situation will be posted tomorrow.
You’re missing out on johanno1.se at your own risk because the discussion is at a very high level, but don’t take any investment advice in crypto from MXT, that’s a hot tip, and Friday evenings tend to be less about world-leading analysis and more about beer recommendations.
Iranian saboteurs in Europe who did not carry out a first strike against the American huge intermediate depots, and who have not started a wave of terror today, March 10, 2026, more than a week after the start of the war – that’s how reality looks.
In the previous post, I discussed why a first strike did not happen and also in the comments in the days after February 28th, the likelihood was high that terrorists would attack soft targets in Europe.
Now we are a bit further in time, and the Iranian regime looks weak, no one likes a loser so the curve should start pointing downwards, perhaps?
There was some questioning about gangs not having Manpads, so the whole argument would be conspiratorial – I’ll change the word to drones, which indeed was listed as point two below Manpads in the post. Why didn’t gangs/clans/operatives take out everything at the airbases in Europe with simple drones, that will be the change in the open question in my previous post so it doesn’t come across as conspiratorial.
For those of you who still feel this would be conspiratorial, you simply have to stop – Ukraine took out 1/3 of the Russian strategic bomber fleet with cheap FPV drones, and Iran is at war with the USA.
It was also suggested that Iran wouldn’t have any terror cells in Europe on johanno1.se last Friday, but that was quite late into the Friday whiskey and perhaps not entirely serious.
According to SÄPO, Iran has 13 times bought violent services from gangs and clans only in Sweden, and no normally thinking individual would believe that they only did that in Sweden, right?
Mossad recently served Europe a Hamas cell on a silver platter.
I have another post in production that goes through the Russian subversive activities now also in Iran where they have supported the Palestinian demonstrations and paid many, very many, in Europe, but if you can restrain yourselves, it will come eventually.
We also clarified the timeline at the start of the war –
-On February 26th, the 5th Fleet leaves the dock in Bahrain and is supposed to consist of 25-30 ships in total.
-On February 26th, the negotiation round between Iran – USA ends with them agreeing to meet again on March 6th.
-On February 28th, the first bombs fell – it was the start of the American operation, which, by the way, was not a war that required Congress’s approval (we live in a crazy time).
-On February 28th, Khamenei died around 08:10 in the morning Iranian time, so he was part of the target selection on the first day.
-On February 28th, Iran bombed the 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain along with targets in 10 neighboring countries in the coming days, on the first day, more than +450 missiles and about the same number of drones were launched
For the 5th Fleet to leave Bahrain, it must be preceded by fully visible preparations, such as revoked land permissions and starting the engines, which Chinese satellites have seen. China has released satellite images in stages that are extremely clear, so it would have been impossible for them to miss that the 5th Fleet was on its way to sea.
So, the USA didn’t decide on February 26th to move the fleet when the negotiations didn’t go as well as they had hoped – the fleet had already received its marching orders before that and left the same day the negotiations ended.
I can only conclude that Iran never intended to carry out a first strike because they must have received information from China that the fleet was leaving port early enough and would have had time for a rain of missiles.
Regarding the events of February 28, 2026, where the Iranian retaliation came immediately on the same day
This is after June 2025, October 7, 2023, Hamas and Hezbollah, and how Iran has destabilized the entire region for decades.
And not least their rhetoric on Twitter throughout 2025 for everyone to see – violent death for all.
If they thought that the USA wouldn’t attack if they just remained calm – what a mistake and how naive is it really legal to be. The negotiations ended on February 26th, and the 5th Fleet left the dock – do you really need more indications than that?
Or after Venezuela and Syria where the USA has started showing its teeth.
Moreover, since last fall, China has paid many billions of USD for military equipment they sent to Iran – they expected war because otherwise, those billions would have been spent elsewhere.
We’ll see when history is written, but maybe it will turn out that it was the USA/Trump’s negotiation round that lured them into the stands?
Note that the USA and Iran were supposed to meet again on March 6 to continue negotiations. The USA had no intention of that since they had already given the fleet marching orders, but maybe Iran fell for it?
There’s also the detail that in June 2025, the USA made a limited effort, so the regime might have thought they would get a little beating but survive again, perhaps?
A small ruse – just the fact that the 5th Fleet leaves the dock the same day the negotiations end reveals that the USA planned to go to war if the F-15 SEAD and F-22 Raptors, along with all the air tankers, weren’t enough of an indication.
These capabilities are well protected in the USA inland on a daily basis and not something exposed at bases in the MENA unless they intended to use them.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/26/us-iran-talks-conclude-claims-progress-few-details
At least Khamenei was very tough and tried to disrupt the negotiations as much as he could.
“Khamenei suggested Iran possesses weapons that can “sink” an aircraft carrier and “slap” the largest military in the world to the ground as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) staged military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz”.
My conclusion is that he/IRGC, together with China and Russia, made this global conflict’s major strategic mistakes on par with Macron, Scholz, and Zelensky on February 24, 2022 – only that it will end in regime collapse for Iran.
There is too little talk about this, but that mistake cost the Iranian dictatorship its head, and Russia/China lost a strategic key ally.
The question is whether Russia/China have lost the opportunity for a global conflict on their terms here?
I almost feel deceived, but not as deceived as the dictatorship in Iran.
Israel has been very smart – they have a portal where Iranians can provide coordinates and descriptions of targets in Iran.
That might explain a lot of the disrupted meetings and groupings – for example, the Stadium in Tehran where the IRGC sought refuge after their bases were taken out.
15,000 IRGC were there, and it was leveled to the ground, the stadium held 80,000 spectators.
According to this, China gave Iran 50 of its anti-ship missiles, all ineffective against the target.
Exciting source indeed, 20th writes others.
Since many question whether China has delivered anything or not, Khamenei actually says just that when he describes his deadly weapons.
And that China had an airlift months before – did they deliver rice and Peking duck?
More than I discuss that China has made a strategic huge mistake, the source is an older woman with glasses so she must be credible?
What I really want to project is the following – if Iran had carried out a first strike as I described it, partly with drone attacks on intermediate layers in Europe, then a first strike against the 5th fleet with robots and finally with Yemen’s Iranian navy against the US fleet in the area, they would have at least started at +7/10 all else being equal.
Then followed up with terrorist attacks in Europe and demonstrations everywhere to scare Europe into silence.
At this point, China could have rushed more fleet to the waters off Iran together with Russia and the US might have started to think twice with the 5th fleet sunk at the pier in Bahrain.
Well, China is rushing fleet to the waters off Iran anyway…
Now they waited until the leadership was knocked out and then they shot missiles at 10 countries in the MENA region and achieved exactly the same aversion as if they had received after a first strike minus all the advantages such an event would have given in terms of knocked out American equipment.
Iran, China, and Russia have been preparing for war for a very long time, they escalate the situation one step at a time and await the reaction, but they must reasonably always be prepared for resistance?
After Venezuela, Cuba, Syria, June 2025, the Panama Canal, China must reasonably have felt that the heat had risen considerably?
I can only see that this was a monumental miscalculation but now it is behind us and there will be no more discussions about it, a silver medal in war is not worth much, Xi Jinping and the fifth generation of mullah rule have just discovered.
A few terrorist acts will probably start coming.
Oslo
Warning about Sweden
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/snabbkollen/usas-ambassad-i-stockholm-varnar-amerikanska-medborgare
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