Today’s analysis was supposed to be about the global overall situation with a burning Iran and a receding Russia in Ukraine, but first, there had to be some Iran-related content after a long discussion on johanno1.se last Friday before we got too drunk and dropped off.
The post about the global situation will be posted tomorrow.
You’re missing out on johanno1.se at your own risk because the discussion is at a very high level, but don’t take any investment advice in crypto from MXT, that’s a hot tip, and Friday evenings tend to be less about world-leading analysis and more about beer recommendations.
Iranian saboteurs in Europe who did not carry out a first strike against the American huge intermediate depots, and who have not started a wave of terror today, March 10, 2026, more than a week after the start of the war – that’s how reality looks.
In the previous post, I discussed why a first strike did not happen and also in the comments in the days after February 28th, the likelihood was high that terrorists would attack soft targets in Europe.
Now we are a bit further in time, and the Iranian regime looks weak, no one likes a loser so the curve should start pointing downwards, perhaps?
There was some questioning about gangs not having Manpads, so the whole argument would be conspiratorial – I’ll change the word to drones, which indeed was listed as point two below Manpads in the post. Why didn’t gangs/clans/operatives take out everything at the airbases in Europe with simple drones, that will be the change in the open question in my previous post so it doesn’t come across as conspiratorial.
For those of you who still feel this would be conspiratorial, you simply have to stop – Ukraine took out 1/3 of the Russian strategic bomber fleet with cheap FPV drones, and Iran is at war with the USA.
It was also suggested that Iran wouldn’t have any terror cells in Europe on johanno1.se last Friday, but that was quite late into the Friday whiskey and perhaps not entirely serious.
According to SÄPO, Iran has 13 times bought violent services from gangs and clans only in Sweden, and no normally thinking individual would believe that they only did that in Sweden, right?
Mossad recently served Europe a Hamas cell on a silver platter.
I have another post in production that goes through the Russian subversive activities now also in Iran where they have supported the Palestinian demonstrations and paid many, very many, in Europe, but if you can restrain yourselves, it will come eventually.
We also clarified the timeline at the start of the war –
-On February 26th, the 5th Fleet leaves the dock in Bahrain and is supposed to consist of 25-30 ships in total.
-On February 26th, the negotiation round between Iran – USA ends with them agreeing to meet again on March 6th.
-On February 28th, the first bombs fell – it was the start of the American operation, which, by the way, was not a war that required Congress’s approval (we live in a crazy time).
-On February 28th, Khamenei died around 08:10 in the morning Iranian time, so he was part of the target selection on the first day.
-On February 28th, Iran bombed the 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain along with targets in 10 neighboring countries in the coming days, on the first day, more than +450 missiles and about the same number of drones were launched
For the 5th Fleet to leave Bahrain, it must be preceded by fully visible preparations, such as revoked land permissions and starting the engines, which Chinese satellites have seen. China has released satellite images in stages that are extremely clear, so it would have been impossible for them to miss that the 5th Fleet was on its way to sea.
So, the USA didn’t decide on February 26th to move the fleet when the negotiations didn’t go as well as they had hoped – the fleet had already received its marching orders before that and left the same day the negotiations ended.
I can only conclude that Iran never intended to carry out a first strike because they must have received information from China that the fleet was leaving port early enough and would have had time for a rain of missiles.
Regarding the events of February 28, 2026, where the Iranian retaliation came immediately on the same day
This is after June 2025, October 7, 2023, Hamas and Hezbollah, and how Iran has destabilized the entire region for decades.
And not least their rhetoric on Twitter throughout 2025 for everyone to see – violent death for all.
If they thought that the USA wouldn’t attack if they just remained calm – what a mistake and how naive is it really legal to be. The negotiations ended on February 26th, and the 5th Fleet left the dock – do you really need more indications than that?
Or after Venezuela and Syria where the USA has started showing its teeth.
Moreover, since last fall, China has paid many billions of USD for military equipment they sent to Iran – they expected war because otherwise, those billions would have been spent elsewhere.
We’ll see when history is written, but maybe it will turn out that it was the USA/Trump’s negotiation round that lured them into the stands?
Note that the USA and Iran were supposed to meet again on March 6 to continue negotiations. The USA had no intention of that since they had already given the fleet marching orders, but maybe Iran fell for it?
There’s also the detail that in June 2025, the USA made a limited effort, so the regime might have thought they would get a little beating but survive again, perhaps?
A small ruse – just the fact that the 5th Fleet leaves the dock the same day the negotiations end reveals that the USA planned to go to war if the F-15 SEAD and F-22 Raptors, along with all the air tankers, weren’t enough of an indication.
These capabilities are well protected in the USA inland on a daily basis and not something exposed at bases in the MENA unless they intended to use them.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/26/us-iran-talks-conclude-claims-progress-few-details
At least Khamenei was very tough and tried to disrupt the negotiations as much as he could.
“Khamenei suggested Iran possesses weapons that can “sink” an aircraft carrier and “slap” the largest military in the world to the ground as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) staged military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz”.
My conclusion is that he/IRGC, together with China and Russia, made this global conflict’s major strategic mistakes on par with Macron, Scholz, and Zelensky on February 24, 2022 – only that it will end in regime collapse for Iran.
There is too little talk about this, but that mistake cost the Iranian dictatorship its head, and Russia/China lost a strategic key ally.
The question is whether Russia/China have lost the opportunity for a global conflict on their terms here?
I almost feel deceived, but not as deceived as the dictatorship in Iran.
Israel has been very smart – they have a portal where Iranians can provide coordinates and descriptions of targets in Iran.
That might explain a lot of the disrupted meetings and groupings – for example, the Stadium in Tehran where the IRGC sought refuge after their bases were taken out.
15,000 IRGC were there, and it was leveled to the ground, the stadium held 80,000 spectators.
According to this, China gave Iran 50 of its anti-ship missiles, all ineffective against the target.
Exciting source indeed, 20th writes others.
Since many question whether China has delivered anything or not, Khamenei actually says just that when he describes his deadly weapons.
And that China had an airlift months before – did they deliver rice and Peking duck?
More than I discuss that China has made a strategic huge mistake, the source is an older woman with glasses so she must be credible?
What I really want to project is the following – if Iran had carried out a first strike as I described it, partly with drone attacks on intermediate layers in Europe, then a first strike against the 5th fleet with robots and finally with Yemen’s Iranian navy against the US fleet in the area, they would have at least started at +7/10 all else being equal.
Then followed up with terrorist attacks in Europe and demonstrations everywhere to scare Europe into silence.
At this point, China could have rushed more fleet to the waters off Iran together with Russia and the US might have started to think twice with the 5th fleet sunk at the pier in Bahrain.
Well, China is rushing fleet to the waters off Iran anyway…
Now they waited until the leadership was knocked out and then they shot missiles at 10 countries in the MENA region and achieved exactly the same aversion as if they had received after a first strike minus all the advantages such an event would have given in terms of knocked out American equipment.
Iran, China, and Russia have been preparing for war for a very long time, they escalate the situation one step at a time and await the reaction, but they must reasonably always be prepared for resistance?
After Venezuela, Cuba, Syria, June 2025, the Panama Canal, China must reasonably have felt that the heat had risen considerably?
I can only see that this was a monumental miscalculation but now it is behind us and there will be no more discussions about it, a silver medal in war is not worth much, Xi Jinping and the fifth generation of mullah rule have just discovered.
A few terrorist acts will probably start coming.
Oslo
Warning about Sweden
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/snabbkollen/usas-ambassad-i-stockholm-varnar-amerikanska-medborgare
Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!
Now you’ve really messed up, MTX, Johan will get back at you 😱
I think it’s a good analysis 👍
Yes, ugh, it’s enough that you disagree with him a couple of times and it’s over! That I never learn! 😉
Äsch, it was Johan who wrote it, missed that.
Well, in any case, an interesting analysis!
😄
You’ve surely heard the story about when Dengamle siphoned gasoline from the space shuttle Challenger and forgot to put back the gas cap, right?
A bit much today but will try to remember to tell it – a feel-good story 👍
the type of sunshine that Icarus was struck by, right?
😂
What happened to Challenger was not something Den Gamle cared much about.
Worse was that he fueled up the Corvette Stingray, which he had just swindled from Armstrong in a poker game, and took off. It went like a rocket for a kilometer before the cylinder head blew.
It was actually noted that something passed by Challenger shortly after liftoff, and for a long time it was believed to be a terrorist attack where someone had shot at the ferry.
Good overview today Johan No.1!
A bit strange actually that Iran didn’t seem to take the threat seriously, because as you write, it was hard to miss the preparations.
The simplest explanation is probably that they didn’t believe that the USA would dare to start a war. Trump has been talking about peace and even created the Board of Peace, so they probably just mistook it for him wanting to pressure them.
Does anyone know if the USA presented any ultimatum to them before? Do as we say, or we will attack?
If Trump never presented any ultimatum, it may have made them think that they still had time for negotiations? Even though they of course came out strong saying that they wouldn’t allow themselves to be threatened?
It could be that Trump actually just intended to apply pressure but never got around to issuing any ultimatum, so Israel saw the opportunity and announced that they plan to attack? Then there wasn’t much else for Trump to do but to go along?
Another explanation could of course be that they wanted to appear as victims and gain everyone’s support, but completely misjudged their own bad reputation in the world where everyone would instead cheer if the regime falls.
I immediately got stuck when I arrived at work, felt a bit stressed because I hadn’t posted anything, nice to see that there was already one when I finally had time.
Probably that was the case, but now all those who were part of the decision are deceased so we have to guess.
Will leave it there now with the above post.
The only thing we know is that everyone said they made progress at the peace meeting and would meet again on March 6.
Not entirely unlikely that the USA fooled them there?
Well, at least the point with the two posts has come across so everyone has something to think about and sometime the answer will come
Very reasonable
Then we have this that I can’t let go of, that T is upset that Iran tried to kill him. If the FBI has written that in a report, it doesn’t require a narcissist to ponder a revenge opportunity. I don’t think that was the reason for the war but rather the thing that made him take a chance regardless of recommendations against it.
The above I believe is likely, the following is more speculative:
What happens if it wasn’t Iran at all who financed/pushed the intended murderer, then it becomes a doubly backwards strategy where Iran doesn’t understand what drives TACO and is the seed of such serious miscalculations.
Russian losses in Ukraine 2026-03-10
SLAVA UKRAINI
It was very hardware 👍
Very much prevention – a offensive is presumably underway in the future?
130 combat clashes
“🇺🇦Ukrainian Air Defence shot down 122/137 drones!”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mgovoxd56s2x
Johan could very well get a job as a political columnist at some major media outlet back home in Sweden. At the newspaper Fokus?
They were not interested.
“Every third Russian business may close down. 31% of Russian entrepreneurs are considering closing or selling their businesses, which is 8% more than in 2025, according to a study by FOM and the Higher School of Economics.
Expectations for 2026 have worsened: 52% predict a deterioration, while 12% expect an improvement. In 2025, 39% of businesses were in survival mode, and the same number reported a drop in revenue.”
https://bsky.app/profile/beefeaterfella.bsky.social/post/3mgp3hvalf22t
🤩🤩🤩🤩
A good and interesting post, thank you Johan no 1.
I think the war in Iran seems to be a poorly planned rush job by the USA. Everything Trump undertakes tends to turn out that way. Venezuela, Greenland, tariffs, peace meetings with Putin, NATO, etc. Even when Iran’s leader says that we decide when the war ends – not Trump, that shows how bad the situation is with the USA’s war planning. Additionally, Hegseth has started blaming Israel for the war. What a mess!
Agree with you that it feels a bit rushed. Not least noticeable in how the USA communicates about the war (which is not a war, even though it is a war).
One day Trump says the war could last a long time, the next day he says the war is almost over while Hegseth goes out and says they are prepared for a long war.
They can’t even come up with a clear explanation for why they started the war. One time it was the risk of nuclear weapons, another time it was because Iran was about to attack any day.
It was interesting that Hegseth blamed Israel, which I hadn’t seen. It could actually be as I speculate further up. It could explain why it feels messy and unplanned if Israel took the opportunity and the USA then just felt compelled to join in.
Johan is often into Xi and his fired generals. I take the liberty to dare to claim that if Xi and China do not attack Taiwan during Trump’s time as president, Taiwan will remain its own country for the foreseeable future.
I have the same thoughts about China. Do they think they will take advantage of it before the next election in the USA.
At the same time, I wonder if a stressed global economy, with tariffs and now rising oil prices, may make them choose to abstain or if instead they see it as an advantage.
👍.
Hegseth blamed Israel already on the second or third day of the war. He is probably right to some extent. Israel has probably been quite aggressive. But he should have kept quiet.
Ah, that passed me by.
I do not agree. It seems to have been well-thought-out target selections that have been planned for a long time. Plus the improvisation at the football arena. They have cut off the head of the snake. And clipped the wings of the regime. All skillfully executed and no rush job.
I followed the events in Iran during the holidays when ordinary people and students took to the streets in the major cities of Iran to demonstrate their dissatisfaction. Those who were not shot in the head on the spot were shot by snipers from the rooftops. That’s when this regime showed its true face.
Sometimes it feels like the hatred towards Trump trumps everything. The problem with Trump is that he has a constant need to be in the spotlight and comment on everything. Then it gets messy. The purpose of Israel’s and the USA’s campaign against Iran has been to take out the top of the Revolutionary Guard and knock out large parts of Iran’s military resources. It was done successfully. No doubt about it.
From a purely military perspective, things have surely gone quite well, but honestly, I have far too little information to make that assessment. Iran has not given up yet, and they continue, albeit to a lesser extent, to send their robots.
Of course, the USA has hit many important targets, and the initial attack can only be seen as successful, but there is very little information about how much has gone wrong or been shot down. The girls’ school was hardly a intended target.
But it would be strange if Israel, with its intelligence service together with US precision weapons, would not hit what they most want to hit.
What I feel is that they seem a bit caught off guard by the fact that Iran has not given up, that they attacked neighboring countries, and that the strait would be closed causing oil prices to soar, etc. and then in combination with the rhetoric surrounding the war that makes one wonder about how they thought and think.
It’s not just Trump who prefers to talk about his ballroom and comes up with contradictory information, it also applies to those around him.
A huge planning preceded this war.
Now the euphoria phase is over and everyone will see that Iran can continue terrorist bombing.
USA ammunition and air defense ammunition are important too.
UA interceptor drones can probably make a difference if they arrive on site.
Absolut, if you don’t play, you can’t win.
Sure, he’s a gambler, but the thing is that he secures against loss by having 10 different alternative new games he can get into.
But the score is 1-0 to Iran right now since they appointed the son.
Monty Python would have said. – you loose your head’s off – Nooooo it isn’t, it’s but a flesh wound.
A new head grew out and the body heals. It will be interesting to see how he continues. Maybe he simply buys a cheat code that erases this level and jumps straight to the next level and stage in the game.
I wonder if it’s a deliberate limitation (perhaps Putin is starting to notice an increasing dissatisfaction) or if it could be that their mobile network is starting to collapse due to lack of maintenance.
“In Moscow, there have been problems with communication and mobile internet for the fifth day in a row. In the Central Administrative District, only certain websites from the whitelist are accessible, and restrictions have affected Wi-Fi in the metro.”
https://bsky.app/profile/beefeaterfella.bsky.social/post/3mgp3ebvadk2
Putin will soon play in the relegation series. His days are numbered.
RU has problems and Ukraine is increasing
It is enough with a few hours of calm for it to feel good to be here, but it still bangs every day. Today I got out of my plastic bathtub and went to my office instead, nice to be able to meet other people and talk about everything that’s happening.
Here we get alarms (well, only one so far today) but we avoid seeing and hearing the explosions. Yesterday there were only three air raid alerts with fewer flying objects, but judging by the sounds they were more powerful. Iran announced yesterday that they will not send any missiles with warheads under 1 ton, so I assume it’s when one of those is shot down that it bangs heavily, maybe.
https://report.az/en/other-countries/iran-vows-to-use-missiles-with-warheads-over-one-ton
Another current topic is of course oil and oil prices. Came across a very interesting article about some alternative routes that oil can take from the Gulf States to mitigate the risk but increase oil prices.
https://www.ndtv.com/opinion/isarel-iran-war-these-saudi-and-uae-oil-pipelines-could-decide-who-wins-11188327
Well, back home to Abu Dhabi and jumping into the plastic bathtub with a glass of cheap whisky and my laptop.
All the best from somewhere outside Abu Dhabi.
Thank you for the report! Nice to hear that you are still around, and nice that you could leave the bathtub for a while!
It would be good if some of the oil problems could resolve themselves. The price has gone down a bit and is now back around 90USD/barrel.
Good, good with some return to normality.
Shops open and all?
Everything is working as usual in the country, if it weren’t for these air raid alarms and explosions, you wouldn’t have noticed any difference here. I order my goods (food and cheap whiskey) to be delivered to my door within 30 minutes. 👍
Living here is so incredibly easy that I really don’t want to leave here, we’ll see how long I can handle this, no matter how I twist and turn it, it’s stressful for me to be here.
Everyone I talk to experiences the same thing, just the neighbor slamming the door causes a heartbeat to rise and the first thought is that Iran is shooting again. Every sound that in any way resembles a shooting is immediately connected to it, so difficult to relax here.
My experience after +20 years outside of Sweden is partly more left in the wallet and then a considerably more comfortable life, but also more exciting jobs and the opportunity to “advance in one’s career,” which is much more difficult in Sweden because every position is filled and it is difficult to work one’s way up the ladder.
It seems like you have managed to find a great opportunity here, but that’s just based on what you’ve told me, of course 😀
During COVID, I worked for three years in Sweden and it was – poorly paid, minimal appreciation, unprofessional, and sky-high living costs, the first time since university that I worked in Sweden.
I was a technical specialist at the traffic office and was on probation but in the “upper quartile in salary.” After a year, a doctoral student in an unrelated subject and a younger consultant came in on better pay than me because they were unique.
After I left, old colleagues have told me that they tried to figure out why the unit wasn’t doing anything, but I could manage 25 projects simultaneously – they never understood that I did 80% of the work in the unit AND helped my colleagues, but now they understand.
Step two was trying to push the unit to start working, and then 9 out of 11 resigned within a year.
I have some kind of inherent aversion to the USA after studying in Iowa during university – one completely forgets about Europe.
The Caribbean is also tough, and not keen on South America at all.
The MENA region is not bad actually, there are good countries in Africa, and we have a foothold in Portugal, which could just as well have been Spain, France, Greece, or Italy.
Italy has a “nomad tax” that is very low if you work there in the right way, and cheap accommodations now – the country seems to be emerging as interesting.
I have never worked in Asia, but I know that many Brits retire in Malaysia and Singapore – I have this idea that the humidity is too high in those countries 😀
When I was in Lagos at my latest job, a colleague said, “once you’ve managed to become an expat, you stay” – he’s probably right because it’s not easy to get over the first hurdle, but once you do, the world is truly open, isn’t it?
Both Spain and Portugal (I believe) have expert tax and benefits.
Good that you are feeling better.
Soon you can bathe in weak beer in your plastic bathtub, everything is just getting better now.
Already longing 🥰
How is the delivery going 🧐
DHL usually delivers within five business days, which was yesterday.
DHL 🤢
I got a spot on a ship in the Russian shadow fleet, cheap.
It takes some time and Jocke has to pick it up in Bombay.
Thank you for the information, Jocke. It will surely turn out well in the end.
Greggen writes something unexpected today. Says that Yermak for a long time provided the president with fake information about Budanov. https://www.facebook.com/kenneth.gregg.9440
I can’t find anything about this in established media. Instead, this is taken from social media. Gregg doesn’t say anything about having his own sources for this. If he had, he would surely have said so (he’s not shy).
It could be true. But it sounds a bit bizarre. And if it is true, it’s a big deal. Also sounds exactly like something Russia would love to spread.
Since Gregg has previously said that it’s OK to use his texts, I’m pasting the post here for those who don’t want to visit Facebook. Interesting if true but could just as well be made up.
I asked ChatGPT to try to trace the source. According to ChatGPT, the previous source is a small telegram channel called Національні Інтереси.
I am very skeptical of the truthfulness. There are obviously personal conflicts involved. My guess is that this is a fabrication based on known personal conflicts to increase credibility.
Yetmak resigned and Budanov entered the police force?
Many are envious of him as the golden boy.
Quite interesting that it even worked in ua who has high resilience.
Off-Topic, ICE
Just thinking a bit about how the protesters are being met in Georgia.
“Federal agents routinely violate their own rules on how so-called less lethal weapons are used against people protesting against immigration police arrests. This is reported by CNN.
The channel has reviewed a number of video clips from various situations where ICE and other authorities, among other things, use chemical weapons like tear gas near children and shoot rubber bullets or similar ammunition at the faces of protesters. In most cases, according to CNN, there are also no clear threats to the agents’ own safety.
– They have violated all rules for less lethal weapons and crowd management, says former border police chief Gil Kerlikowske.
The US Department of Homeland Security defends the actions, which they argue were necessary to disperse crowds.”
https://omni.se/cnn-federala-agenter-skjuter-targas-mot-barn/a/aJlWy7
“The US Department of Homeland Security does not back down an inch after CNN’s investigation into federal agents breaking their own rules when using so-called less lethal force against people protesting against the immigration police ICE.
“If you obstruct law enforcement, you can expect to be met with violence,” the agency writes in a statement.
CNN’s investigation of video footage from the extensive protests in recent months shows that agents have, among other things, shot rubber and pepper balls at protesters’ faces.”
https://omni.se/myndigheten-demonstranter-kan-rakna-med-vald/a/PdpyLp
Jo Trimp does not follow the rules in very much.
Especially the Iran war, which is not a war he did not need Congress approval for.
The amount of daily Russian fpv drones is truly extremely high.
Absolutely incredible…
“OPINION: Whose Side Is Trump’s America On?
Three votes. Three resolutions. Three opportunities for the US to support Ukraine. It did not do so once.”
https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/71499
Yes, there it is indisputably 😀😀
“At least 33 people injured in Russian attacks on Ukraine over the past day”
https://kyivindependent.com/at-least/
“❗️🇺🇦Ukrainian soldiers from the SIGNUM battalion attack 🇷🇺Russian infantry and logistics in the Lymansk direction”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mgp5xembn223
Regarding Gregg, it’s also time for us to have inner conflict.
Trump tried very hard in 25 to bring down Zelensky, which probably gave others in the country motivation to try as well.
Trump’s performance was abysmal
Shameful of Trump.
Yermak rose and Budanov was politically promoted close to the president – probably true
A question regarding the possible first strike against the US fleet in the harbor.
Assume that the ships are within range of missiles and drones whether they are in port or at sea. Is there then a crucial difference if they are moored at the dock or at sea? Okay, it is probably an advantage in an attack if the fleet is well gathered compared to if it is scattered. Okay, at sea, it is probably in motion, but could it be crucial for the ability of modern weapons to hit targets? These ships must have a tremendous amount of countermeasures against incoming threats. As far as I can understand, Iran has not sunk a single ship. Not even scored a single hit!? Would it have made a decisive difference if the ships were in port if the weapons available still couldn’t reach them.
Then of course it’s good to strike first if there is going to be a war anyway. However, if one is totally inferior, perhaps it is logical to hope for the best.
Some remedies may not be as effective by the quay? Well, it’s probably about how alert one is.
Otherwise, a sea target missile is usually a jet engine-driven thing with wings. It might have difficulty hitting by the quay.
That being said, it is most likely that Iran would have used ballistic stuff and aimed to take out the entire port. But there the US has Aegis, and that should work in port, provided that someone mans the system and that no one is sitting smoking next to the platform it is fired from. That is to say, provided that one is not on leave.
I reply –
February 28th Iran knocked out the 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain so we KNOW that their missiles got through.
Yes, ships have a lot of close-range defense against incoming targets + land-based ones for extra protection when they are in port.
But – they are lined up, their radars and close-range defenses interfere with each other, they have limited firing fields and cannot move.
At sea, it’s an anti-ship missile that counts, fire and forget?
At the dock, it’s a coordinate and then Shaheds and all kinds of missiles work well, including intercontinental ones that are harder to shoot down.
—
Overall – if Iran had fired everything they fired on the first day, February 28th, but instead towards the 5th Fleet in Bahrain, a lot would have been hit.
+350 missiles and as many drones.
Then when the ammunition depots started to explode on the ships, they would have damaged each other.
This opportunity will never come back to fight 25-30 ships – now it’s gone.
They are well aware of their extremely inferior capacity for violence, so they saw no other option but to hope for the best. Perhaps not the best alternative.
Regardless of one’s stance on the responsibility for the war, it is still a bit scary to see how one side can bomb the other side to pieces virtually without risk of losses. The only loss of aircraft that has affected the USA was probably “friendly fire.”
It is not a new revelation that if one cannot defend their airspace, they run the risk of being bombed to rubble and stones.
One could probably have done the same thing with Russia as with Iran. If one had wanted to. They did not want to.
N Slobozhansky-Kursk 0
S Slobozhansky 3
Kupyansk 2
Lyman 5
Slovyansk 11💥
Kramatorsk 1
Kostjantynivka 13💥↘️
Pokrovsk 29💥💥↗️
Oleksandrivskij 5
Huliaipole 28💥💥↗️
Orikhivsk 1
Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 0
Sum sectors 98↗️🇷🇺
Unlocalized 32↘️(🇺🇦)
Total 130
👍
Does RU go down but UA go up?
Statement from Zelensky, who presumably should know.
“Evil must not be given opportunities for coordination, but the protection of life must be clearly coordinated,”
Zelensky also reiterates that the war in the Middle East is a war against a West-hostile axis:
Zelensky “emphasized that the Russians are now trying to manipulate the situation in the Middle East and the Gulf region in favor of their aggression, as well as to turn the Iranian regime’s strikes against its neighbors and American bases into a second front in Russia’s war against Ukraine and, more broadly, the entire West.”
Two fronts… Is the Iran war an escalation of October 7, driven/provoked by the Russia-Iran axis?
The statement focuses on the question posed yesterday:
“MacMelmac 2026-03-09 at 13:20:24
What if the USA (or Israel) were completely fooled by Iran into attacking them. Now they are shooting at everything and everyone, dragging the whole region into… (read above)”
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4099763-zelensky-trilateral-talks-postponed-due-to-events-surrounding-iran.html
On October 7, Netanyahu has exploited to access Iran and Israel has pushed this very hard.
But yes – what if Trump sees this as an opportunity to shoot all of the USA’s ammunition 🧐
So China and Russia can start up next?
Threw in an alternative post today that might annoy some of you.
On the other hand, you have the chance to get revenge and get rid of me! 😂
https://johanno1.se/sv/en-trump-kritikers-funderingar/
Continue like this! 👍
👍
I agree!
I wrote there –
—
haha, I agreed with you up until the last paragraph where I of course got a slap 🤣🤣
We do have freedom of speech for real on the site I wrote yesterday or something and we should continue with that, right?
But yes, some writers tend to drop off as soon as they don’t get agreement, but if you adjust for them, the corridor becomes narrower.
Isn’t discussion and different arguments the very core of what makes a site alive, Lex Andra Bloggen which is now down to 150 comments per day where Erik14 accounts for 110 because he goes hard against everyone?
Is this some kind of protest against you getting pinched in my posts?
If so, I’ll have to switch over to Dengamle for a while, but please confirm, he’s also fun to tease.
No worries at all! Pinch yourself! 😄
Continue writing as you do now. I am impressed by all the wise and knowledgeable posts from you.
Nevertheless, I would like to make a suggestion in all kindness. Although I have no idea if this is a viewpoint shared by others. When it comes to notifications about what is happening in Ukraine, sometimes I wish for a bit more analysis on what are important notifications and what are less important. Maybe sort out some that are not so crucial. Of course, it might not be easy. And there may be others who have a completely different opinion. Of course, it is impossible to achieve something that everyone thinks is perfect.
My above post was intended as a response to MXT above. Not sure if it ended up in the right place.
Thank you! 👍
Yes, it might be a good idea to try to separate the posts and also spend some time on a shorter analysis or explanation. Distinguishing them shouldn’t be that difficult, but the other part might take some time.
Will keep that in mind!
Then I just have to clarify that we have freedom of speech on the site – total and you can say anything that is legal.
But if you vote wrong in that other post, your login will be gone because we have no login freedom at all on the site – it is limited to comments must agree with Johan No.1 and MXT and preferably praise them.
So we have a very high ceiling and everything should be discussed and criticized 👍
Above was just a joke maybe I should clarify with.
Or was it a joke 🧐
I agree with Johan No.1
Fan 😐
We are starting to understand that now!
We haven’t blocked anyone so far, even though you’ve been in a tight spot several times. 😂
I won’t block anyone unless you’re okay with it.
It would have to be something really outrageous that I feel requires immediate action (like someone threatening to kill someone or similar).
Maybe even obvious Russian propaganda of course because no normally sane writer would engage in that.
I appreciate being able to vent here, on the other hand, I don’t want/dare to write where I live, because I live in a slave country that everyone except stupid Swedes understood would be attacked by Iran so I have only myself to blame. Feels very welcoming to actually write a post here. 🙄
On this side, it’s easy to be honest and describe my experience from this MENA country that I never thought I would live in, so thanks to everyone who is here and contributes and doesn’t judge my decision to live in the country I have chosen to live in. 👍
An addition. It is inevitable that opinions about Donald Trump differ. It’s good to have a discussion about him. As long as the tone is respectful and intellectually honest. And it is here. Unlike on the other blog.
On the other blog, you get blocked if you don’t criticize Trump or alternatively criticize Biden – some personal experience of that.
When Biden was still president, I was told not to criticize Biden so much and preferably start criticizing Trump because otherwise it would benefit Nazi forces in society. It was around the time when Biden and Sullivan were dealing with Ukraine and then the thread was supposed to be a support for Ukraine.
I have written a lot in the comment field and the most important experience is that there must be different opinions, otherwise it becomes a closed echo chamber that quickly radicalizes – like the other blog.
Yes, but it turned out to be right, didn’t it? You have to take responsibility now that Trump came to power! 😂
You believe that I have influenced the outcome of the election and not that Biden in the final presidential candidate debate couldn’t formulate a complete sentence and looked completely lost?
Even I. What I did wrong there was mostly that I thought it could be a good idea to try to understand what it is that makes about half of the voters vote for Donald Trump. If one now thinks that he is personified evil, then it should be an incredibly constructive idea. It becomes difficult to convince voters if one does not even want to try to understand how those who think differently think.
Above all, it is a question that the Democrats would have needed to ask themselves, it is not enough to threaten with how bad everything will be with Trump if you cannot deliver a more attractive alternative.
Yes, if the Democrats had had a real alternative, it could have looked completely different, but they insisted on Biden for too long.
New Year’s resolution JanW, then he immediately broke it 🤣🤣
“❗️En drönarattack riktades mot en plats för montering av markrobotiska system för Rysslands 1:a separata motoriserade skyttebrigad i Donetsk den 8 mars. Attacken träffade en byggnad på Kyivskyi Avenue och utlöste ammunitionsdetonation. Tre soldater rapporterades döda, fem skadade och en saknad.”
“❗️Europeiska kommissionens ordförande Ursula von der Leyen kallade EU:s avvisande av kärnenergi ett strategiskt misstag. Andelen kärnkraftverk i den europeiska elproduktionen har minskat från ⅓ år 1990 till cirka 15% idag.”
Good, Ursula has improved lately.
“🇦🇺 Australien kommer att skicka ett militärt övervakningsflygplan till Mellanöstern och skicka missiler till Förenade Arabemiraten men kommer inte att sätta trupper på marken i Iran, sade premiärminister Albanese, – Reuters”
“Most Ukrainians view Americans favorably, but 66% disapprove of the Trump administration
Fifty-five percent of Ukrainians still view the United States favorably — but only 23% say the same about the administration running it, according to a KIIS poll conducted in February 2026.”
“Ukraine is set to receive a crucial batch of Patriot air defense missiles in the coming weeks. Germany’s Defense Minister has secured around 30 of the latest PAC-3 interceptors from European partners, while Berlin will add five more from Bundeswehr stockpiles.”
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/71597
Good, best to send them off to Ukraine before the USA wants to buy them back
“❗️On the night of March 10, Ukrainian strike drones and artillery carried out a series of precise strikes on Russian targets: fuel and lubricants depots near Kopteve and Makiyivka were hit, an electronic warfare station in the Donetsk area was destroyed, a UAV control point near Myrnohrad was eliminated, artillery units in the Sukhetske and Dorozhnyanka areas were struck, as well as concentrations of enemy personnel in Novomykolaivka (Zaporizhzhia region), Selydove and Pokrovsk (Donetsk region).
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mgpeqd3wz223“
Clear message from Hegseth about the goals of the USA. If you are the ones in charge.
Nothing about liberating the population and achieving democratic elections, or anything about them deciding who should lead the country as Trump previously demanded.
“US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was careful to point out that the warfare in Iran is completely different from the war in Iraq at a press conference in the afternoon.
– This is not like 2003. It’s not even close, he says, taking a swipe at former presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama.
Hegseth emphasized that neither the American soldiers nor Donald Trump “will allow” the Iran war to be prolonged.
In his update on the war, he outlined USA’s three objectives in Iran. It’s about destroying Iran’s missile capacity, the country’s fleet, and preventing the regime from developing nuclear weapons.
– We will do this at our own pace.”
https://omni.se/hegseth-det-ar-inte-2003-det-ar-inte-ens-nara/a/k0w6E6
Trump is looking for a way out, he is starting to worry that it is beginning to affect the USA, with rising gasoline prices, etc. And then he has another smash and grab war in Cuba that he would like to start.
I don’t think he will be let go easily from Iran. If he leaves now, he leaves the civilian population to the Revolutionary Guard to torture and kill as they please. Iran has lost much of its ability to wage war against foreign countries, but they probably still have weapons to kill civilians with.
Good, some who dare! Not directing any criticism but still demanding an investigation.
“Several Republican senators are demanding that the military get to the bottom of reports that it was an American missile that hit a girls’ school in Iran, claiming 180 casualties on the first day of the war, writes Semafor.
– We should find out everything we can about this. It’s tragic. It’s sad. It’s the kind of thing that happens in all wars, and this is war, says Senator Todd Young.
He is supported by Republican Senate colleagues Kevin Cramer and John Kennedy.
Defense Minister Pete Hegseth said the other day that the attack is under investigation, but that “it is only Iran targeting civilians.””
https://omni.se/republikaner-ga-till-botten-med-attacken-mot-flickskolan-i-iran/a/7p3dlV
It is rumored that they have used AI for target selection and it has provided the coordinates to the school.
The oil price rally is dampened and stock market falls subside as the G7 countries mention the possibility of opening and using the common strategic oil reserves. But even though tens of millions of barrels of oil may sound like a lot, it is like “a drop in the ocean,” writes CNN Business.
“It’s not zero, but the effect is likely to be quite small,” says Daniel Raimi of the energy think tank Resources for the Future.
The USA and the world consume so much oil that the reserves cannot come close to covering the loss that a closed Strait of Hormuz entails. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the G7 countries released 240 million barrels, which ultimately only had a marginal impact on the price.
Experts say that the only thing that can have a real and long-term effect on the oil price is a free flow through the Strait of Hormuz. Twenty percent of the world’s oil flows through this narrow passage.
The criticism from the Moderates has not been delayed after Magdalena Andersson’s (S) questioning of the discussions about nuclear weapons with France.
Minister of Defense Pål Jonson (M) is surprised by the statement and wonders if it is being made to hold the party together.
“Here, Magdalena Andersson reasonably needs to explain the Social Democrats’ approach to cooperation with allies to strengthen security,” he writes.
Even Carl-Oskar Bohlin (M), Minister for Civil Defense, is upset.
“To stand in the middle of the shirt and hope that everything will blow over can possibly be packaged as a strategy, but it is in fact avoiding responsibility,” he writes.
Instead, Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson plays down the conflict. She argues that both parties are “very much in agreement” on not having nuclear weapons on Swedish soil, according to Aftonbladet.
This is the same as Jockesoft was the first to report on.
“The Saudi oil giant Saudi Aramco is working hard to send its oil from the port city of Yanbu on the Red Sea coast to avoid the blocked Strait of Hormuz. This was stated by the CEO Amin Nasser during a conference call in connection with the release of the report, according to the Financial Times.
In this way, the world’s largest oil company hopes to be able to deliver approximately 70 percent of its normal capacity – five million barrels per day compared to seven under normal circumstances. Even though Saudi Arabia has coastline in both directions, the majority of deliveries go through Hormuz.
During the call, Amin Nasser also warns that a prolonged war could have “catastrophic consequences” for the oil market and the global economy.
“This is by far the biggest crisis that the region’s oil and gas industry has faced,” he said, according to AFP.”
https://omni.se/varldens-storsta-oljebolag-styr-om-oljan-till-roda-havet/a/j0Qavz
Are you still following Ukraine?
An ENORMOUS pre-emption.
A minor offensive going excellently.
A major offensive in the cards.
A DEADLY strategic targeting of Russian objectives.
I’m starting to feel this in 2022 😍😍😍
I am waiting for some positive news on DeepStateMap as confirmation. They are usually slow but when something shows up there, you know things are moving.
I’m just waiting for the next escalation now.
This could be a good side effect from the war in Iran for Ukraine.
Partly a substantial amount of money, and if it turns out well, strengthened relations even with Saudi Arabia.
It’s a shame that the country is not great when it comes to freedom of speech, equality, etc. even though they have made some progress.
“Exclusive: Saudi Arabia prepping ‘huge deal’ for Ukrainian weapons amid Iranian drone threat”
https://kyivindependent.com/exclusive-saudi-arabia-prepping-huge-deal-for-ukrainian-weapons-amid-iran-threat/
A problem – the damn Russians will have received the technology in two weeks from the USA.
Then the USA will send home one to the Trump islands who has now started his own drone company.
Hope Ukraine gets substantial orders at a good premium as compensation.
Well, saw that with his sons… Big risk that Ukraine will be overrun and that Trump ensures that it’s the sons who get the deals instead. Probably demands on the countries in the regions, otherwise they will face tariffs, or lose other military support.
BUT for it to be effective, skilled pilots are required, right now only Ukraine can deliver that.
On the other hand, wasn’t the war over? 🤔
USA has successfully escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz.
What do the experts say, is this an effective method?
Is it enough with a lowered tanker for it to stop working?
I obviously know the answers, but what do you think?
The post from the energy minister in the USA has now been removed, unclear what has happened.
Of course you didn’t know the answers 🧐
Feels a bit like the start of World War II, where you first managed to convince Poland that Germany had no offensive plans, and then that they would really focus more on cavalry because it was the future.
And then in 1940, it was time for Norway and that Germany would only make a diplomatic visit on April 9.
King Haakon complained to the UN after the war, if I remember correctly?
Admitting that it was wrong to insist that horses were the future.
They were going to make a diplomatic visit with the cruiser Blucher. But the Norwegians sank it, so of course the Germans were upset.
Silly king!
The year after 1941, the aircraft cruiser Gotland was on exercise (reconnaissance) between Pater Noster and Nidingen. They “happened” to see the battleship Bismarck, which was newly built and on trial runs outside Gutenhafen (Gdynia). This was reported to Churchill, who immediately ordered the fleet to sink her. You know how it turned out. The sister ship “Tirpitz” was hidden by the Germans in, among other places, Altafjorden. It only carried out a few missions in the Arctic Ocean and attacked convoys. But “Tirpitz” had powerful anti-aircraft defenses and protected the Germans’ main base in Northern Norway. Therefore, a warship can be useful even at the dock. Someone probably asked about that at the beginning of the thread. TV
According to Expressen and Sydsvenskan, the USA is allowed to export Himars rocket artillery to Sweden. 8.5 billion in the pot.
Good, good if needed.
Would have preferred a European system maybe.
I agree. Could be something that Sweden benefits from in the next stage.
I note in A Trump critic’s reflections that if you question criticism of Trump, you are labeled as a Trump lover.
“I myself rather think that it is you Trump lovers who are blinded by your love, you should dare to let go of the boards and also acknowledge that there are certain flaws in his behavior and negative consequences of what he does.”
Not agreeing with criticism of someone, not offering your own criticism of the same, or even questioning criticism of the same, does not necessarily mean that you are taking a stand for the one being criticized. Much less does it mean that you sympathize with them. I recognize the sandbox level from Cornucopia.
Good morning!
990 KWIA
5 Tanks
3 AFVs (Armored Fighting Vehicles)
61 Artillery systems
1 MLRS (Multiple Launch Rocket System)
2157 UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles)
281 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
1 Special equipment
Glory to Ukraine
https://bsky.app/profile/matsextrude.bsky.social/post/3mgr724juak2b