Kapotnya refinery in Moscow is on fire after Ukrainian attacks – Russian losses in Ukraine, etc.

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Ukraine has carried out a major attack on the Gazprom-owned refinery in Moscow, and several fires have broken out. Apparently, the refinery has been hit at least seven times according to this post “We are now at up to 7 impacts on the Kapotnya refinery in Moscow, Russia.” which also shows an overview image of the refinery. In this post, you get a sense of the scale “The sky over Moscow, Russia, has darkened” and also in this one.

Here is a spectacular video where you can see the “lid” of a tank being lifted “Close call for those guys when the silo of Russia’s Kapotnya refinery in Moscow exploded and launched the roof into the air.“, but there are plenty of videos.

Russia recently issued a ban on drones and small aircraft around Moscow and has also concentrated much of its air defense in and around the city. Nothing seems to matter much, Ukraine still reaches its targets.

Belgorod has also been visited. Here something is burning heavily and here a truck is being attacked.

Russian losses in Ukraine

At the risk of sounding repetitive, today’s report again shows that Ukraine continues to inflict heavy losses on Russia.

  • 1370 KWIA
  • 5 Tanks
  • 4 AFVs
  • 71 Artillery systems
  • 3 MLRS
  • 4 Air defense systems
  • 1996 UAVs
  • 7 UGVs
  • 431 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
  • 3 Special equipment

Ukrainian General Staff report

  • 259 combat clashes
  • 76 aviation strikes
  • 243 KAB/CAB
  • 9 921 kamikaze drones
  • 2 958 shells (59 from MLRS)

SLAVA UKRAINI

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150 thoughts on “Kapotnya refinery in Moscow is on fire after Ukrainian attacks – Russian losses in Ukraine, etc.”

  8. MXT

    NOTE! For those who might wonder about **

    When the text is surrounded by  ** it means that the post was originally made in English, on the English version of the page, and then automatically translated into Swedish on the Swedish page. That is why there can sometimes be some linguistic errors. Normally, I often write quite poorly anyway because I am too lazy to proofread, but in those cases it is the AI’s fault.

    If you want to see the original, you can easily switch to the English version of the page and read it there.

  9. MXT

    “Good morning! During the night, Gazpromneft’s oil refinery in Kapotnya in Moscow has once again been visited by drones, and the Muscovites’ morning is illuminated and gets an aura of thick, black smoke. Russian authorities claim to have shot down 42 drones.” Videos:
    https://x.com/FriaUkraina/status/2067454137197871448

    “There have also been explosions elsewhere during the night. Among other things, the fuel depot in Gukovo in the southern Russian Rostov region caught fire after a drone visit.” Videos:
    https://x.com/FriaUkraina/status/2067456731567845687

      1. Umlaut

        Looking forward to them trying to shoot down a low-flying drone, which triggers a chain reaction of firing Pantsirs that turns Moscow into Swiss cheese/inferno.

  14. MXT

    “The Swedish defense will build a new digital cloud service for command and control, inspired by how Ukraine’s defense operates, reports SVT Nyheter. The system will gather, among other things, real-time images from drones, satellite images, and the positions of its own soldiers and will be accessible via tablets. With the help of AI, situational images will then be produced.

    – We will become stronger and we will become faster through these measures. And it is enormously important on the future battlefield and the transparent battlefield that Ukraine has today, says Defense Minister Pål Jonson (M).

    According to the Swedish Armed Forces’ cyber chief Mattias Hanson, communication that today can take hours to produce will instead be possible in minutes.” https://omni.se/ai-forstarkt-stridsledning-ska-gora-forsvaret-snabbare/a/n148ma

  15. MXT


    Försvarets materielverk (FMV) has signed a framework agreement worth four billion kronor for the purchase of the mine-laying system Skorpion 2, reports TT. The agreement with the German manufacturer Dynamit Nobel Defence is valid until 2032.


    Skorpion 2 can be mounted on several different vehicles and can deploy 400 anti-tank mines in four minutes.


    – Anti-tank mines continue to be of great importance for the ability to prevent and delay the advance of hostile forces on the ground, says Jonas Lotsne, head of FMV’s Army Materiel division.

  16. MXT

    Off-Topic, the agreement between the USA and Iran

    “The USA and Iran have electronically signed the peace agreement and it has come into effect, according to two American sources to Axios.

    According to one of the sources, President Trump has signed on behalf of the USA. The purpose is said to be to speed up the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

    At the same time, a spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry says that it was not intended for the parties to sign the agreement during the meeting expected to take place in Switzerland on Friday, according to Reuters.”
    https://omni.se/kalla-usa-och-iran-har-skrivit-under-avtalet-elektroniskt/a/0po5xo

    —

    “In an analysis for CNN, Aaron Blake points out that Trump has broken the most important rule in his own book ‘The Art of the Deal’: the worst thing you can ever do is appear desperate.

    It even seems that the Trump administration has given up its attempts to make the agreement appear beneficial for the USA, he writes.

    Daniel Bush writes in his analysis for BBC that there is still a lot of work left to do before this agreement can be finalized.

    ‘Obama’s nuclear energy agreement with Iran was negotiated over almost two years. Now the USA and Iran only have 60 days to reach a new one.’

    David Blevins also agrees that the agreement seems rushed in his analysis for Sky News. After Trump’s comments that he does not want any ‘economic disaster,’ it seems the president has been motivated by the midterm elections more than anything else. Blevins also calls Trump’s stance on Iran’s regime a ‘remarkable U-turn.’

    – It is basically impossible to take the president seriously when his words are this far from reality, he says.”
    https://omni.se/analyser-i-forhandlingen-brot-trump-mot-sin-egen-heliga-regel/a/GxjpJm

    —

    “Republicans rage after the peace agreement with Iran

    Several big names within the Republicans are furious after Donald Trump’s peace agreement with Iran.

    Criticism comes among others from Trump’s former vice president Mike Pence, although he believes that a large responsibility also lies with the two former presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

    ‘I would urge the president to take a step back, continue the blockade and strive for a negotiated solution that binds Iran to dismantle its nuclear weapons program,’ he writes on X.

    Bill Cassidy, Republican senator for Louisiana, writes that Iran has now learned that they can threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz, something that would torment the late Ronald Reagan.

    ‘Reagan is turning in his grave.’

    Also Nikki Haley, the USA’s former UN ambassador, is critical of the promise of money.

    ‘It is a huge mistake to pay to rebuild the threat we just destroyed,’ she writes on X.”
    https://omni.se/republikaner-rasar-efter-fredsavtalet-med-iran/a/2pmEnr

    —
    Israel and Lebanon do not seem to care much about that agreement.

    “An Israeli soldier is said to have been killed after fighting broke out in southern Lebanon on Wednesday. This is reported by the Israeli military (IDF) on Telegram. In addition, seven more are said to have been injured.

    ‘The injured soldiers were evacuated to hospitals for medical treatment, and their families have been notified.’

    On Wednesday evening, the USA and Iran are said to have signed a peace agreement, according to reports. One of the points in the agreement is said to be that the war ends on all fronts for both countries and their allies, which includes Lebanon.”
    https://omni.se/idf-soldat-dodad-efter-strider-i-libanon/a/vrw05L

    2. MXT

      Okay, but then maybe it is also unfair if they are not allowed to acquire nuclear weapons?

      “Trump: Unfair not to let Iran have ballistic missiles

      It would be unfair not to let Iran have ballistic missiles when other countries have them, says US President Donald Trump according to Reuters.

      – If Saudi Arabia and Qatar and all of them have some, I would say that I think it is okay in relative proportion, he says.

      Furthermore, Trump says that US forces will remain in the region “for a while” after Washington and Tehran have signed the agreement.”
      https://omni.se/trump-orattvist-att-inte-lata-iran-ha-ballistiska-robotar/a/7pmWQK

    3. MacMelmac

      The provided text appears to be a URL link and does not contain any visible user-facing text to translate. If you have specific text content you want translated from Swedish to English, please provide the text directly.

    1. Lynx

      It would be fun 👍🏻. And as a bonus, I don’t think it significantly affects the extinguishing, petroleum products that burn float on top of water, so other things are needed.

    1. MacMelmac

      Another proof that they are so damn brainwashed that they laugh when they get bombed! They don’t understand what Ukraine is going through!

  29. MXT

    Off-Topic, Japan

    “Japan needs to build up its military capability and change the pacifist parts of the country’s constitution. This is stated by Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi in an interview with the BBC – among other things referring to Chinese aggressions.

    – Considering how dramatically the security situation has changed, we must adapt if Japan is to continue being a peaceful country, says Koizumi.

    The current Japanese constitution was written in 1947, in the aftermath of World War II. It states that the country may not use war or the threat of war as a means to resolve international conflicts.

    Formally, the country has not had a military since then, although the country’s “Self-Defense Forces” (SDF) in practice function as one.”
    https://omni.se/japansk-minister-vill-slopa-pacifismen-pekar-ut-kina/a/43myEo

  30. MXT

    Off-Topic, Finland

    “The Finnish Parliament has passed a legislative amendment allowing nuclear weapons on Finnish soil. This is reported by several media outlets.

    “This historic reform strengthens the security of Finland and the entire NATO,” writes Finland’s Defense Minister Antti Hakkanen on X.

    The legislative amendment means that the ban on import, manufacture, and possession of nuclear weapons is lifted. At the same time, Hakkanen emphasizes that the country does not seek to have nuclear weapons.

    The vote, which took place on Wednesday, passed with 125 votes in favor and 61 against. Mainly, it was the SDP and the Left Alliance who voted against the proposal, while the Centre Party voted in favor, writes Yle.”
    https://omni.se/finland-tillater-karnvapen-historisk-reform/a/Gxj4x4

  32. MXT

    ** ⚡️ General Staff: Moscow Oil Refinery, Oil Tanker, Railway Bridge Across North Crimean Canal

    🔥 Moscow Oil Refinery. The refining capacity is over 12 million tons of oil per year. A combined oil refining unit, secondary processing units, and a tank farm are burning.

    🔥 Gukovo oil tank was also hit in the Rostov Region.

    🔥 Road bridge over the Kalka River near the settlement of Granitne in the Donetsk region, as well as the railway bridge over the North Crimean Canal near Rozdolne in Crimea.

    🔥 In the Soledar district of the Donetsk region, an occupier command post was hit.

    🔥 The enemy’s fuel and lubricants depots in Mariupol and Pyatipilly in the Donetsk region, as well as a material and technical equipment depot in the Boykivske district of the Donetsk region, were also hit.

    ❗️Palkino oil pumping station, the destruction of seven tanks with a total volume of 95 thousand m³ was confirmed.

    ❗️Kotovsky oil preparation and pumping shop, damage to three RVS-2000 tanks and oil pipeline.

    ❗️Tamanneftegaz oil terminal, damage to five RVSP-30000 vertical tanks was confirmed. **

    https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mokc6misyk2t

    1. N Eklund

      There are some longer films/documentaries (which have been linked from here before) that go through Ukrainian airstrikes against RU. It seems to be quite complicated operations with waves of drones meant to get the air defense to look the other way, etc. Not entirely unlikely if Ukraine sent several hundred drones, of which maybe 20 were live ones aimed at the main target, and of these they expected three to get through. 

  36. 205

    No major changes in the Russian pressure along the front compared to yesterday, but the other combat engagements increased significantly for an increased ratio of Ukrainian/Russian attacks.

    N Slobozhansky 0, S Slobozhansky 10💥↗️, Kupyansk 5, Lyman 22💥, Slovyansk 11💥, Kramatorsk 0, Kostyantynivka 19💥↗️, Pokrovsk 34💥💥↘️, Oleksandrivskij 2, Huliaipole 30💥💥, Orikhivsk 4, Prydniprovskij 0

    Localized 137, Unlocalized 122↗️, Total 259↗️, Ratio unloc/loc 0.89↗️.

  37. sky11

    What wonderful reports today, and the day has only just begun. It would be fun if UA managed to blow a big hole right in the middle of Red Square as a little statement.

    2. 205

       Perhaps the biggest effect of last night’s drone attacks on oil facilities: the falling rain of oil makes no distinction between domestic Ladas and hard-to-import Mercedes and other foreign luxury brands, which the wealthy Muscovites keep. I wonder how the paint holds up in the sticky rain.

      1. MXT

        A refinery contains many different types of petroleum products, from crude oil to gasoline and solvents. Now, the “strongest” more volatile substances probably burn off more easily, but quite acidic and reactive residues can still rain down. Washing immediately probably reduces the risk, but if it is left for a while, it is not at all impossible that the paint actually gets damaged so that it cannot be removed, or at least requires a proper polishing with abrasion to restore it.

        Then, of course, we have everything else that can become really difficult to clean. Water-based paints, bricks, concrete slabs, plastic items, awnings and parasols, other porous materials like wood, etc., can certainly be destroyed, at least if not washed fairly quickly. I guess all crops must be discarded.

        Then we also have the smell; if it continues to burn for a few days, it can probably settle in the nearby buildings and become difficult to remove.

  43. MXT

    Off-Topic, Hormuz

    “Several ships have resumed voyages through the Strait of Hormuz following the new understanding agreement between the USA and Iran, reports Bloomberg. Among them are three state-owned Saudi supertankers that have been stuck in the Persian Gulf since the outbreak of the war.

    Also, a ship carrying Qatari liquefied LNG gas and a Chinese tanker have been able to pass through the strait.

    The passage of the Saudi ships is seen as particularly significant, as they are the first to have transported larger volumes of oil through Hormuz, writes the news agency.

    Over 100 tankers are reported to have been stuck in the gulf since the outbreak of the war.”
    https://omni.se/forsta-saudiska-oljefartygen-har-passerat-hormuz/a/xrQG9j

  44. MXT

    Kyiv Post

    ** Moscow’s Biggest Oil Refinery Near Kremlin Hit Again as Drone Raid Sparks Fires Across Russian Capital
    In brief: Ukrainian drones struck the Moscow Oil Refinery for the second time in a week, causing multiple fires at a facility that supplies up to 40% of Moscow’s fuel. Russian officials said 194 drones were intercepted during the attack, though several reached key targets. The raid also triggered fires at shopping centers and coincided with strikes in Russia’s Rostov region, where an oil depot was reportedly burning.

    Located just 15 kilometers (9 miles) from the Kremlin, the MNPZ, owned by Gazprom Neft, supplies up to 40% of Moscow’s fuel market and around 70% of gasoline consumed in Moscow and the surrounding region.**
    https://www.kyivpost.com/post/78416

  47. MXT

    😂

    ** “Z-bloggers” comment on the strikes on Moscow:

    ▪️The entire ‘special military operation’ rested on one simple principle: the war would be somewhere far away, and in the rear there would be a normal peaceful life with no mobilization.

    For ordinary people, nothing would change. But provoking through weakness and constantly shifting ‘red lines’ eventually led to strikes on the capital. The result was predictable.

    ▪️Well, what’s there to say. The clouds are getting dark above us. In all forms. Brothers and sisters!

    We have to be ready for everything and, of course, hope for the best and do everything you can for our Victory. So, if anyone has relaxed, I report to you, you need to un-relax immediately. All will be well! **

    https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3moknn4ipqk2r

  48. Pehr

    Ukraine’s drone attack on Moscow during the night leading to Thursday was revenge for the Russian attack on the historic Pechersk Lavra earlier in the week. This is what the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said in a voice message he sent to several reporters, according to Reuters.
    – We do not want this war, we have never wanted it and everyone knows that. But if Ukraine burns, then your Moscow will burn, Zelensky says.
    The night’s drone attack on Moscow led, among other things, to a major fire breaking out at the city’s oil refinery, reports TT. This is the second time in just a few days that Ukrainian drones have managed to hit the refinery.
    https://omni.se/a/aJ4595

  56. MXT

    “Ukraine’s drone attack on Moscow during the night to Thursday was revenge for the Russian attack on the historic Pechersk Monastery earlier in the week. This is what the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said in a voice message he sent to several reporters, Reuters reports.

    – We do not want this war, we have never wanted it and everyone knows that. But if Ukraine burns, then your Moscow will burn, Zelensky says.

    Last night’s drone attack on Moscow led, among other things, to a major fire breaking out at the city’s oil refinery, reports TT. It is the second time in just a few days that Ukrainian drones have managed to hit the refinery.” https://omni.se/zelenskyjs-hot-ert-moskva-kommer-att-brinna/a/aJ4595

    2. CB500four

      It might be that they are starting to feel a bit pressured in Moscow. It is now Ukraine that holds the cards, they are in the process of paralyzing Russia’s economy, and they are doing it without having to terror bomb civilians, as the Russians always do in Ukraine.

      I can imagine Putin walking around shouting in his bunker like Hitler, calling forth armies that don’t exist, bombers that don’t exist, air defenses that don’t exist, and nuclear weapons that don’t work.

  59. MXT

    Några rapporter från “Gråskallen”:

    ** The Armed Forces of #Ukraine cleared the industrial zone in the north of Lyman, Donetsk region **
    https://x.com/FreudGreyskull/status/2066951551588192325

    ** The Armed Forces of #Ukraine entered Mali Shcherbaki, Zaporozhye direction **
    https://x.com/FreudGreyskull/status/2067195917472874907

    ** The Armed Forces of #Ukraine have advanced in Shcherbakivka, Zaporizhia direction **
    https://x.com/FreudGreyskull/status/2067541932117745772

    ** The Armed Forces of #Ukraine cleared infiltration forces out of Lypove, Lyman direction **
    https://x.com/FreudGreyskull/status/2067551737347735572

  60. MXT

    Noticing that it’s pretty dead here now, not just few comments, hardly any traffic either.

    Is everyone getting ready for Midsummer?

    Or is there some extra interesting World Cup soccer match going on that I’m not aware of? (Should be too early for that)😄

  62. MXT

    Det ryska luftförsvaret har gjort en formidabel insats! 😂 😂 😂

    ** Meanwhile in Russian Media… “Moscow’s air defense repelled the largest Ukrainian air strike yet. The largest drone attack has been repelled: Russia’s air defense has demonstrated its strength.” Um… **
    https://bsky.app/profile/prune602.bsky.social/post/3mol7hb36z22t
    https://www.mk.ru/politics/2026/06/18/zhdite-otveta-pvo-moskvy-otrazila-samyy-massirovannyy-nalet-vsu.html

    3. CB500four

      Hm, feels familiar from the Gulf War when Baghdad Bob was standing and assuring that the USA was defeated while Baghdad was burning in the background.

  63. MXT

    ** 🇪🇺🇺🇦 €6.6 billion for defense: Ukraine discussed rapid support with the EU, — Ministry of Defense With EU Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos, he discussed flexible and rapid assistance to Ukraine. With EU Commissioner for Defense and Space Andrius Kubilius — the allocation of EU loan funds.

    Ukraine is counting on the early receipt of the first tranche to cover defense needs. Among the key areas planned to be financed by the loan are drones and strengthening the air defense component. **
    https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mol6skpgec2z

    1. MXT

      This is really big if it’s true.

      If they reach a practical range of 2,700 km, they will be able to strike Omsk.

      There we find one of Russia’s largest (if not the largest) oil refineries with a capacity almost twice as large as the one Ukraine attacked today. 21-22 MT/year. 

      Besides the refinery and the petrochemical industry, which among other things manufactures components for various explosives, there is also heavy industry focused on the military, working with everything from tanks and armored vehicles to military transports and much more.

      If they can strike and actually take out the refinery and the military industry, they really have a chance to significantly weaken Russia’s war industry.

  67. johan No.1

    Too many meetings and dinners MXT, don’t have time to write.

    You also need a break right so some days without posts the world might survive?

    Will be back next week with some posts

    1. MXT

      No worries when Ukraine delivers such great presentations as they did today! 😀

      I will rest when the war is over, although I do allow myself to sleep in sometimes!

  68. 205

    **The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that approximately 1,000 Ukrainian drones have attacked Moscow.

    Let us first note that Ukraine is now capable of launching up to a thousand unmanned aerial systems (UAVs) in a single wave. And it is not merely a matter of possessing such a number of drones—Zelenskyy has already announced that Ukraine will produce 10 million of them this year.

    It is a question of command, logistics, and personnel resources. It is about the ability to organize an attack of this magnitude in the first place: setting up launchers, transporting components, conducting reconnaissance, planning, target assignment, launching, tracking, and post-strike assessment. That is a massive undertaking that must be managed.
    And Ukraine is capable of doing so.

    But what happens when that number rises to two thousand UAVs? Or five thousand?**

    https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/2067583220867072061?s=46

    1. MXT

      I believe 10,000 refers to FPV drones, not FP1 and FP2 among others. But otherwise, he is right; if Ukraine can reach the same level as what Russia sends every night, Russia probably doesn’t have much to counter with.

      Ukraine has problems with air defense despite support from all over Europe, but there isn’t much talk about Russia other than that their air defense is poor. I guess they are also starting to have problems with both missiles and air defenses.

      China tries to pretend that they do not support Russia except with civilian equipment, and the question is whether they actually dare to supply them with air defense and ammunition. I am doubtful about that.

      So the question is how long it will take before Russia really starts to run out.

      So far, Ukraine has only sent a fraction against Russia compared to what they have sent against Ukraine, but now it is starting to even out, and it is obvious that Russia cannot even defend its most important refinery in the Moscow region.

  69. MXT

    Just wrote that Russia is probably starting to have problems with air defense. Here is the solution! 😀

    (Automatically translated by Twitter.)

    “🇷🇺 In Moscow, municipal cranes with armed soldiers have begun to be deployed, intended to function as mobile air defense stations to shoot down Ukrainian drones. Armed military personnel in the baskets of ordinary cranes have been photographed and observed directly at the modern skyscraper complex “Moscow-City” as well as near Moscow’s oil refinery in the Kapotnya district. Independent media, including The Moscow Times, and experts point out that the drastic increase in security measures in Moscow itself is linked to Vladimir Putin’s paranoid fears of a potential assassination attempt using kamikaze drones.”
    https://x.com/PrzemekShura/status/2067495018080682239

    1. maggan

      Nice to be a civilian where the shots are falling. Although I suppose they hit 100% of the fired shots, against the possible non-existent drones that have already been shot down by the outer rings of LV?

    2. CB500four

      The goal is to come in low so they cannot use high-positioned anti-aircraft defenses for fear of hitting the houses, but I suppose the Russians do not care about such trifles.

  70. Pehr

    ** BREAKING from Russia: Ilya Traber – one of the most protected individuals in Putin’s old circle in Saint Petersburg – is reported to have been arrested along with his two business partners. This is not just another story about an arrested oligarch. Traber was never an ordinary businessman. He was Putin’s man, always protected and supported. He was part of the deeply rooted network from the 1990s around ports, logistics, Baltic infrastructure, Ust-Luga, Primorsk, and Saint Petersburg.
    According to rumors, Traber was instrumental in arranging Putin’s first job in the Kremlin in 1996. People like Traber were not meant to be touched.
    For decades, Traber appeared untouchable. Scandals came and went. Investigations came and went. Putin’s system changed, Russia entered a full war economy – and Traber remained. Now the central FSB apparatus is involved, and deputy FSB chief Sergei Korolev personally came to Saint Petersburg for the operation. This is not just a criminal case. This is an earthquake inside Putin’s political system.
    I just made a daily clip about Ilya Traber’s arrest and what it means for Putin’s Russia.

    http://youtube.com/post/UgkxwJD85LKhNRBAL_hZXBRukodODBx4EvwH?si=Z-xjXMvYbWVT20-c

  71. Pehr

    Bill Browder speaks plainly to us.
    (Johan and others here certainly say the same, but everyone else?)
    Is anyone listening?
    ** When the war in Ukraine officially lasts longer than the First World War – where is the conflict really headed?
    In this exclusive interview, we talk with Sir Bill Browder, CEO of Hermitage Capital Management, to shed light on Vladimir Putin’s true motives, the frightening reality of Russia’s active hybrid warfare on British soil, and why the Western world’s defense is currently acting like “easy prey.”
    From asymmetric drone attacks targeting Russian oil refineries to shocking state-backed arson and sabotage plans revealed in British courts – Sir Bill Browder, leader of the Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign, explains how Ukraine has revolutionized modern warfare through AI and robotics – making traditional military strategy completely outdated.
    Is an undeclared stalemate like the Korean War the only way forward?
    https://youtu.be/rSS9bqL32gg?is=uR0P9Rj2fwfEo4kw

    1. MXT

      I actually believe that we will first see a sharply escalated hybrid warfare with sabotage and maybe even murders of some politicians who are obvious critics of Russia. To show that they can and to scare us into withdrawing support. If they make sure nothing can be traced, Putin can just shrug and blame extremists in Europe.

      I almost believe more in an attack with tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine than the Baltics.

      You might think they wouldn’t dare, but why wouldn’t they? Because it risks dragging Europe/NATO into the war? That’s exactly what will happen if they attack the Baltics.

      With nuclear weapons, they can always hope that we become too deterred and therefore continue to remain passive. If Putin has already crossed that line, many will reason that he might as well escalate further and actually attack some of Europe’s capitals with nuclear weapons.

      The difference, of course, is that if they resort to nuclear weapons, they might lose China’s support and also many others’, but I am uncertain about China. They will of course condemn it, but will they want to see Russia defeated and actually withdraw their support? North Korea will hardly complain. Do they have many more real friends?

      It all depends, of course, on how desperate Putin will become, but an attack on the Baltics just to try to prove that NATO is weak will not in any way make Ukraine stop fighting, so you don’t gain much from that. Sure, as you suggest, Putin might succeed with that, but as long as he hasn’t succeeded with Ukraine, I don’t think it matters. The people will wonder why he starts yet another war when he can’t finish the first one.

      But we’ll see, regardless we have to prepare for it.

      1. Pehr

        I believe nuclear weapons are an absolute red line for Beijing.
        We can probably expect an escalation. I agree with the sharply increasing hybrid warfare.

  73. observer

    In Åsne Seierstad’s latest book about Russia, she recounts a telling conversation with a taxi driver. From memory, he says roughly:
    “I don’t understand that the West doesn’t realize that the sanctions have to hit ordinary people – food, medicine, and everyday life? The Russians will never revolt against the leadership as long as they are fed and can put food on the table.”
    The quote illustrates an uncomfortable but important idea: that economic sanctions primarily affecting the state or elite do not necessarily create popular pressure on those in power. As long as the majority of the population feels that their basic needs are met, stability tends to outweigh political change.
    Hopefully, Ukraine’s recent bombing campaign against refineries and oil depots will make things really difficult for the average Muscovite.

    1. MXT

      There is probably some truth to that.

      At the same time, it can be the opposite if the civilian population is pressured. The Ukrainians have not given up despite Russia bombing and killing civilians. Rather, the hatred towards Russia is growing.

      If it becomes harder for the civilians, those who feel that the war is not theirs, it can instead lead to them actually uniting against a common enemy.

      Then we have the problem that Russia is cracking down hard on all critics. Even if the population wanted to rise up, it is not certain that they dare to.

      If one goes against oligarchs and siloviki who start losing too much from the war, they have a greater chance of actually removing Putin. Of course, this has not happened either, but more and more of the influential have started to be openly critical when it comes to the economy.

      2. observer

        You can of course be right about the risk with a common enemy. But historically, revolutions and uprisings have not been carried out by the “well-fed and fat.”

  74. 205

    KINBURN-SPIT

    For more than three years, the Kinburn Spit has been one of Russia’s strategically most important positions in southern Ukraine. The narrow peninsula, located at the mouth of the Dnipro-Buh estuary, has enabled Russian forces to monitor maritime traffic, threaten shipping routes, carry out drone and artillery attacks, and maintain pressure on Mykolaiv and Ochakiv.

    Now, for the first time since the occupation, there are increasing signs that Russia may be struggling to maintain control over the peninsula.

    Reports from Ukrainian partisans, later confirmed by military analysts, suggest that Russian units have begun withdrawing from certain positions after months of Ukrainian attacks on supply routes, bridges, command posts, fuel infrastructure, and logistics centers. Although a full withdrawal has not been confirmed, the reports point to something significant: the battlefield conditions that once favored Russia are starting to turn against the country.

    To understand why, one must look at the geography.

    The Kinburn Spit is no ordinary battlefield. It is a remote strip of sand, marshes, wetlands, forests, and narrow roads stretching between the Black Sea and the Dnipro-Buh estuary. The terrain is beautiful from above but brutal from a military perspective.

    There are very few reliable supply routes.

    There are very few places to hide equipment.

    There are limited locations where large formations can maneuver.

    Everything entering the peninsula must travel along predictable routes that can be monitored and attacked.

    As long as Russia could transport ammunition, fuel, food, reinforcements, and equipment to the area, these disadvantages could be managed.

    But wars are won through logistics.

    And Ukraine has spent months attacking exactly that.

    The strikes on bridges around Crimea, crossings over the Northern Crimean Canal, supply routes in occupied Kherson, command centers, fuel depots, and transport infrastructure are all parts of a larger campaign. The goal is not just to destroy targets. The goal is to make positions like Kinburn impossible to maintain.

    A soldier can survive without comforts.

    A position cannot survive without supplies.

    The marshes and wetlands that once served as natural defenses for Russian forces can now work against them. Heavy equipment struggles to maneuver. Alternative routes are limited. Every convoy becomes predictable. Every delivery becomes a risk.

    The result is that Russian forces increasingly may find themselves trapped on a narrow strip of land where Ukraine can strike faster than supplies can arrive.

    And that changes the situation.

    If Ukraine can continue to apply pressure and eventually force Russian forces off the Kinburn Spit, it would mean the liberation of the last occupied part of the Mykolaiv region and give Ukraine its first significant position on the southern side of the Dnipro-Buh estuary since the early stages of the war.

    It would also eliminate one of Russia’s most valuable observation and fire control positions overlooking the approaches to Mykolaiv and Ochakiv.

    Most headlines today focus on Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, and the brutal fighting raging across the Donbas.

    But while Russia is committing huge numbers of troops to attack cities in the east, Ukraine continues to fight another war in the south.

    A war against logistics.

    A war against fuel.

    A war against bridges.

    A war against supply routes.

    And if the reports from Kinburn are accurate, that campaign may finally be starting to yield results Russia can no longer ignore.
    Source:
    Ukraine News
    https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1CuYcYNkLA/?mibextid=wwXIfr

    1. MXT

      Sounds good! ✊

      There have been some reports stating that the Russians have started to abandon at least the stretch furthest out due to logistics, lack of food and water, I believe it was written about.

       

  76. 205

    Off-topic, MP

    **Completely insane that we taxpayers have paid so many billions for the progress of all wind turbines. The foreign companies that own almost all the wind turbines have not paid a single cent beyond the wind turbine itself. The profits go to China, Germany.. Feels like Centre Party/Green Party politics. Selling out Sweden and the Swedes to foreign countries. Moreover, most have no agreements about what happens when the wind turbine is finished in 15-30 years. Will they remain as wrecks? Or does the landowner handle the cleanup costs?** https://x.com/hallonsa/status/2067669804132020716?s=46

    1. MXT

      So he is a communist and does not want a free market? Everything should be owned by the Swedish state?

      The subsidies that have existed have applied regardless of who chose to build wind power.
      Sweden and Luxembourg are the two largest owners with about 22% each.
      China and Germany have approximately 12-13% each.

      By the way, what does he think about Oskarshamn, which is half-owned by Uniper (Germany) and half by Fortum (Finland)? 

      Typical weak argument against wind power just because someone has gotten it into their head that they hate it…

  77. Pehr

    This comment was intended as a response to MXT’s reply to 205’s post regarding the subsidized wind power.
    It is the subsidies that are the big problem. Good intentions, I am convinced, but the result is not convincing at all. On the contrary.
    The question of how the disposal should be handled is truly worrying.
    Compare with the automotive industry where producer responsibility applies. Whoever places a car on the market has full responsibility for ELV (End of Life Vehicle). An exemplary legislation within the EU that ensures, for example, that importers of unusual Chinese car brands cannot escape responsibility through bankruptcy.

    1. MXT

      I believe the subsidies were necessary to achieve rapid growth since the decision to phase out nuclear power had basically already been made (phasing out nuclear power was, of course, a foolish decision, but that was the premise, and even if we had kept it, the lifecycle for the oldest plants would have passed by now).

      Hydropower is difficult to expand on a large scale, and new nuclear power takes time and is enormously expensive. At that time, SMR was not realistic. The alternatives to wind power for rapid expansion would have been coal, oil, and gas. No sane person sees coal and oil as a better alternative than wind power. Gas is not quite as bad, but would we, like Germany, have wanted to be dependent on Russian gas?

      Wind power has served us well and helped keep electricity prices down. Of course, it is a pity that Swedish companies like Vattenfall did not take a larger share of the pie. 

      Regarding the handling of old plants, there are regulations stating that the owners are obliged to take care of them; I don’t know why many think they will just be able to abandon them? Then, as with everything else, cheating can of course occur, selling to a company in bankruptcy, etc., but it is usually no longer possible to get away with that. For larger permit-required wind farms, economic security from the owner is also required precisely for the handling.

      For smaller installations where permits are not required, there is no requirement to provide economic security, but the responsibility for dismantling, etc., remains. It is not those types of small installations that foreign companies invest significant money in; rather, they are owned by associations, farmers, companies that want to produce their own electricity, etc. They are thus Swedish-owned.

  78. 205

    Moscow (Fox 🦊 News):

    — This is pure hell, I’ve never felt such terror,

    one Moscow resident said after the attack, according to East2West News.

    Another resident, according to the outlet, asked,

    — Why won’t this madman stop his crazy and pointless war and end the death and destruction?

    ”Kyiv says its strikes deep inside Russia are evidence that it is turning the tide of the war, a message President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took this week to President Donald Trump and other G7 leaders at a summit in France.

    The latest strikes underscore a new phase of the war, with Ukraine increasingly able to hit high-value targets deep inside Russia while Moscow struggles to prevent drones from reaching politically sensitive and economically important sites near the capital.
    ..

    East2West news agency also reported that a heavy security presence was deployed around the Kremlin, with Red Square sealed off and machine-gunners positioned on towers, ramparts and near Bolsheviks’ founder Vladimir Lenin’s Mausoleum.”

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