Russia moves all its modern tanks out of Ukraine, building up on NATO border instead

Today the biggest news comes from the Russian Federation. Russians are pulling their tanks and other armored vehicles out of Ukraine and back into their massive stockpiles in the rear. Satellite footage and independent analysis show modern T-90 tanks and BTR-82 armored vehicles filling up military storage depots all across western and northwestern Russia.

Notably, Russia has completely abandoned the idea of armored warfare in Ukraine due to the drone kill zone detecting and intercepting any and all heavy vehicles several kilometers before they reach the front. While this has caused Russia to overly rely on massed infantry assaults and infiltrations that cost them tens of thousands of lives every month, their losses of modern armored vehicles have dropped significantly. Notably, most destroyed Russian tanks are now predominantly variants like the T-55 and the T-62, being used as mobile artillery guns or heavily uparmored assault vehicles. However, Russian production numbers for more modern armored vehicles must go somewhere if not to the battlefield in Ukraine, and as of right now they're building everything up on NATO's border instead.

Notably, the pattern has been observed in the western and northwestern regions of Russia near NATO's border. Here, Russia is planning a base to house an entire division only 11 kilometers from Norway's borders. Additionally, Russia is filling up its storage base in Buoy, which is located 500 kilometers from the borders of Estonia and Latvia. However, as Russia cannot pull out more armored vehicles from storage to refit them, it is rebuilding its stockpiles with its most modern variants, such as the new T-90 tank and BTR-82 models.

Russia's rate of production didn't stop, which means Russia can fill its storage bases again with approximately 300 T-90 tanks and up to 400 BMP-3 models annually. Simultaneously, artillery depots are also being restocked with MSTES self-propelled guns and Malva self-propelled guns in Karelia, approximately 185 kilometers from the Finnish border.

Notably, Russia could be building up its armored reserves to potentially take advantage if the static front line in Ukraine breaks. However, Estonian Defense Minister Martin Graham stated that its abundant intelligence reports show that Russia will inevitably test the border on one of the Baltic countries, and it cannot be ruled out that the newly deployed tanks and artillery pieces will also be used in these Russian provocations, especially given the location of the equipment buildup. It's important to note that the immense Russian investments made into gearing their industrial base toward a protracted war are another significant factor explaining the buildup.

A sudden halt in the production of military equipment because they are no longer used on the battlefield in Ukraine would likely lead to the collapse of the Russian economy. This means that Russia is now forced economically to continue the production of tanks armored vehicles, which serves as an incentive for Russia to prolong the war and even begin a new one to prevent the Russian economy from collapsing, again explaining the decision to house these newly produced vehicles right on the border with NATO.

Overall, Russia's decision to rebuild its armored reserves suggests that Moscow is preparing for a future in which its military needs more than just infantry and drones to achieve its objectives. Even if these vehicles cannot survive large-scale assaults on today's battlefield, they could become a serious threat if Russia identifies weaknesses in NATO's defenses or finds a way to reduce the effectiveness of drones.

The greater danger is that Russia's war economy is creating a cycle in which continued military production requires continued confrontation, making a lasting peace increasingly difficult to achieve. For Europe, this means that the end of the war in Ukraine would not mean the end of the Russian military threat, but could instead give Moscow the opportunity to rebuild its forces for its next confrontation.

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