After the peace negotiations, Russia once again showed that they do not intend to take them seriously. In Kyiv, four people were injured and one killed after the night’s attacks, which also caused a major fire and damage to several buildings. In Kharkiv, 19 people were injured, and the attacks there also resulted in destroyed buildings and fires.
Russian losses
- 930 KIA
- 4 Tanks
- 3 AFVs
- 31 Artillery systems
- 1 Air defense system
- 772 UAVs
- 88 Vehicles & fuel tanks
SLAVA UKRAINI
Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!
“❗️🇷🇺Russian military personnel are filming the moment of the 🇺🇦Ukrainian drone strike on the area where Russian personnel, ammunition depot and equipment are located in temporarily occupied Selydove.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3md5q2z26bc2s
AFU reports:
“Ukrainian drones targeted several Russian regions overnight. Moscow claims 75 were downed over Rostov, Belgorod, Crimea, Kursk, Voronezh, and Bryansk.”
https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3md5pwrzhl22w
“A Russian strike drone likely hit a residential complex in Kyiv during tonight’s overnight attack.”
https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3md5przj6ms2w
“❗️During the night and morning, 🇺🇦Ukrainian forces shot down 15 out of 21 missiles and 357 out of 375 🇷🇺Russian UAVs:
▪️ 0/2 – Zircon anti-ship missiles
▪️ 9/12 – Kh-22/Kh-32 cruise missiles
▪️ 5/6 – Iskander-M / S-300 ballistic missiles”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3md5pdccsss2s
Off-Topic, economy
As someone wrote here on the blog, Trump just believes he is doing what is best for the USA.
“This week, customers of the investment bank UBS have sought protection from Donald Trump and the weakened dollar by moving assets to China and especially the country’s tech sector. This was stated by Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele in an interview with Reuters.
What attracts them is a combination of relatively low valuations, political support, and financial incentives.
– We particularly like Chinese tech because there are some successes there, says Haefele.”
https://omni.se/storbanken-ser-en-rotation-fran-usa-till-kinesisk-tech/a/Ar3z65
😳
“❗️🇩🇪Diehl Defence has launched a new production facility in the town of Nonnweiler (Saarland) and plans to increase IRIS-T SAM production to ten systems already this year.
The company has also invested €1.5 billion to expand its production capacities and will soon reach a production rate of 2,000 IRIS-T missiles per year.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3md5rissnms2s
🇮🇷🇺🇸 A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran would treat any U.S. attack — whether limited or large — as “all-out war. Iran’s military is on high alert and preparing for a worst-case scenario.
▪️Lufthansa Group: Cancelled or restricted flights to Israel and nearby destinations.
▪️Air France has canceled two incoming flights to Dubai and Tel Aviv.
▪️British Airways has canceled its evening flight to Dubai.
▪️KLM has canceled flights to Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.
▪️Air Canada & United Airlines: Paused flights to Tel Aviv.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3md5s4gp4mc2c
Friday binge drinking and up with the rooster 🐓
No rest no peace! 😄
Calmer today after yesterday’s offensive against Pokrovsk and Huliaipole. Continued pressure on these two front sections.
N Slobozhansky-Kursk 0↘️
S Slobozhansky 5↘️
Kupyansk 1
Lyman 12💥
Slovyansk 2↘️
Kramatorsk 3↘️
Kostjantynivka 20💥
Pokrovsk 41💥💥↘️
Oleksandrivskij 5↘️
Huliaipole 22💥↘️
Orikhivsk 1
Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 0
Sum sectors 112↘️↘️
Unlocalized 24
Total 136↘️↘️
👍
“The Soviet Union emerged in 1922 promising a bright future for mankind, but it ended seven decades later in a failure so massive that Western countries had to fly in emergency humanitarian assistance. By attempting to recreate it, Vladimir Putin’s regime is condemning Russia to a similar fate.”
https://open.substack.com/pub/projectsyndicate/p/understanding-russias-endgame
👍
“💔 More from Kyiv and Kharkiv…”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3md5tfyyq5k2w
One person was killed, and another four were reported injured in Kyiv as Russia launched a mass attack on the capital overnight on Jan. 24, officials reported.”
https://kyivindependent.com/explosions-heard-in-kyiv-as-russia-launches-mass-attack/
Full copy, Joakim von Braun, former KSI.
The year started very well for Ukraine
The new year has started well for our struggling friends in Ukraine. The last days of December and the first three weeks of the year have proven to be extremely successful for several of Ukraine’s military units and even more so for both the SBU and GUR. Another positive trend is that more direct military targets are now being successfully attacked, both thanks to special forces on the ground and to an increasing number of better drones in the air.
Another trend also seems to be that more purely Ukrainian military units, not affiliated with GUR or SBU, have started to show their capabilities. However, this is happening without SBU and GUR reducing their respective activities.
Putin’s Russia massacred in 2025
Last year was probably the most successful period during the war against the Russian war criminals. The fact is that Russia’s murderers are finding it increasingly difficult as long as the war continues, and that Russia is facing more challenges the longer the war lasts. Even though progress is slow, the war is increasingly looking like a lost cause for Moscow and Putin. There are hardly any sectors in Russia that are functioning as they should. Russia’s infrastructure and economy are completely ruined.
2025 has been a real loss for the Russians, and it is becoming increasingly clear that they are moving in the wrong direction. The number of dead and wounded soldiers is increasing, while the amount of destroyed military equipment is significantly rising. The costs are increasing month by month, and GRU and SVR are finding it increasingly difficult to import the high-tech components that the country desperately needs. Additionally, the costs for this are also rising rapidly. At the same time, the oil exports have further decreased due to Ukraine’s successful attacks, reducing Moscow’s export revenues.
Day by day
I try to follow the Ukrainian attacks day by day and note exactly what is happening in databases and records, including the specified sources. It is clear to me that the Russians are now facing more and more attacking units and that they are also becoming increasingly successful.
A few days before New Year’s Eve, GRU’s special forces unit 14 OBrSpN (в/ч 74854) was attacked, resulting in 51 dead and 74 injured. This was not the only time the unit was attacked last year. In early 2025, they lost 37 men, including a colonel at the top of the pyramid, but they have also suffered other losses. In addition to Russian special forces units, the Russians have also experienced significant losses among the country’s airborne units and the Russian Navy’s marine infantry. This is good news for us in Northern Europe because it reduces Russia’s ability to invade us across the Baltic Sea.
Of course, it is possible to rebuild these units, but there is a high risk that it will take between 5 and 10 years before the elite units are capable of more than just marching neatly on the 9th of May. It should not be forgotten that severe losses, especially when they occur while soldiers constantly hear about major successes, can be extremely traumatizing psychologically and may take a long time for a unit to recover from.
The group that attacked the Russian GRU unit is called “Birds of the Magyar” (”Птахи Мадяра”), which could probably be translated to “The Hungarian Birds” (I think).
Major Russian military hardware losses
Examining Ukraine’s media reports on Russia’s military losses provides a wealth of details about what is happening inside Russia. Often, this allows for verification of the reported information, and many times it is actually Russian sources confirming the Ukrainian reports. Mainly, verification comes from Russian authorities and Russian military bloggers, but also from Western media. Together, a relatively dense web of detailed information is obtained that is hardly possible to dismantle.
Destroyed missile systems
According to reports, the Russian military has lost more and more hardware over the past 12 months. Over 500 air defense systems of the following 10 different types were eliminated for the Russian military by the Ukrainian special unit Alfa (Альфа спецпідрозділ):
▪️ S-300, S-350, and S-400 missile systems
▪️ Buk-M1 and Buk-M2 air defense systems
▪️ Pantsir-S1 and Pantsir-S2 combined anti-aircraft missile and gun systems
▪️ Tor-M1, Tor-M2, and Tor-M3 anti-aircraft missile systems
Thousands of dead Russians
According to NATO Chief Mark Rutte, Russia is said to have lost at least 30,000 men in December 2025. This means that NATO considers the loss figures from Ukraine’s General Staff to largely correspond with their own estimates. I have reviewed Russia’s losses from 22/12 to 22/1 as obtained from Ukraine’s General Staff. According to them, the personnel losses during these 30 days amount to 32,950 individuals! So, Ukraine and NATO (as well as the British) have approximately the same loss figures.
During the same period, Putin has lost 158 tanks, 171 armored vehicles, as many self-propelled guns, and 48 artillery pieces. In addition, they have shot down 117 cruise missiles and a total of 20,115 drones. A lot of metal waiting for recycling! If anything, it shows how warfare has changed. Not very mobile warfare, with numerous drones in the air while the Russians send thousands of poorly protected soldiers.
Sabotage near Moscow
The Ukrainian partisan group Atesh has once again shown its capabilities. About 10 days ago, they sabotaged a communication tower belonging to the 5th Air Defense Division (в/ч 52096) in Moscow’s air defense. The division is equipped with Pantsir-S1, as well as both S-300 and S-400, presumably due to their proximity to Moscow. Atesh describes their success as follows:
“Our agents carried out a successful sabotage operation in the Moscow oblast, striking an element of the air defense system of the 5th Air Defense Division, part of the anti-aircraft missile forces of the Russian Aerospace Forces.” (https://t.me/atesh_ua/9084)
Thanks to this destruction, the Ukrainian forces will have an easier mission in the future when attacking Moscow with drones. Finally, I think it is worth noting that Atesh is a partisan unit that originally started its operations in Crimea but is now present in dozens of locations, several of which are deep inside Russia. They have infiltrated at least 23 Russian military units, of which at least one-third belong to the airborne forces.
It is also pleasing to note that at least two new fighting organizations have emerged in Russia in 2025 that are on Ukraine’s side. I will write more about these as soon as I can.
Ukraine’s military elite
In addition to the Security Service SBU and the Military Intelligence Service GUR, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have the unit “1 Central Command for Unmanned Drone Systems,” which is their primary drone unit. The impression I get of Ukraine’s Armed Forces is that they have an extremely strong and competent core, especially with the intelligence services at the forefront, while also having a large number of units with a wide range of capabilities, all competent in fighting with drones and with fantastic fighting spirit. They will never, ever be defeated by Russia!!!
Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the heroes! Death to the enemies!
Interesting!👍
Greenland
“If the framework agreement between the US president and the NATO chief contains anything about Greenland’s minerals, then that agreement is just to be forgotten by Donald Trump. That’s the conclusion of Politico’s interview with Greenland’s Minister of Minerals Naaja Nathanielsen.
She says that Greenland does not accept that any outsider makes decisions about the island’s mineral extraction. At the same time, she is open to some form of deal. For example, there is an agreement with the US on mining rights from 2019 that can be updated.
– But we cannot start exchanging minerals for sovereignty.
According to reports to several media outlets, Greenland’s minerals were included in the framework agreement, but this has been denied by NATO chief Mark Rutte.”
https://omni.se/gronlands-mineralminister-usa-far-inte-vara-mineraler/a/9pEmWd
I think she answered it herself – the agreement from 2019
What kind of world do we live in? In order to agree to peace, Russia (Peskov) says they demand to have Donbas. And the world seems to seemingly accept this bizarre demand for peace. One must understand if Ukraine eventually can’t resist any longer. But a peace agreement without a proper lesson for Russia is probably a disaster for the world (especially in the form of Europe). So why are money even a question here. Ukraine pays with blood for its own freedom and for our security. The very least that can be demanded of us is total support materially and economically. And we are not even there.
It feels shameful to say, but it is hard to believe that there are conditions today for a peace agreement that does not pose a direct threat to Europe’s future. That is, as a European, I kind of hope that there will be no (bad) agreement now and that we pull ourselves together and give them all the material assistance they ask for. But we have absolutely zero right to demand or even wish for anything more than for the Ukrainians to choose what they consider least bad for them.
I also heard Donald Trump say that the other (NATO) countries had not really contributed in any significant way to the military effort in Afghanistan. They had kind of been far from any front line (sort of) (1). (However defined it was.) Starmer pointed out that 457 English soldiers had died. And a large number had been injured. Of course, there are a large number of dead from other NATO countries, for example, Denmark, although I don’t remember any details.
What can one say. There are no words enough.
1.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/23/trump-news-at-a-glance-starmer
Since Ukraine has switched to the USA, Europe has presumably already backed down?
Hoped just like you for what you describe but it didn’t turn out that way.
Even though it is Russia that is the root problem, it is the USA that is helping Russia get what they want.
In essence, it is good to try to achieve peace, but not on the attacker’s terms. I understand that Ukraine wants to end the war as soon as possible, but now that Trump has taken control of the peace negotiations, Ukraine will get “a peace to end all peaces.”
It’s not just TrumPutin’s fault, Europe has talked too much and done too little, even though our support has been greater than the USA’s since Trump took office. But even if we had a leader who decided that now Europe will negotiate peace on Ukraine’s terms, Putin would hardly have come to the negotiating table because they do not consider us strong enough, militarily strong.
2025-2026 will fundamentally change Europe, we now know that Trump doesn’t care about anyone who doesn’t have power, and even if Trump is not long-lasting, the USA has now shown that as long as their president can rule by decree, they are not a democracy.
In order to defend democracy, we must also be militarily strong, that is the only thing dictatorships respect.
Edit… Yes, and Trump’s statements about NATO and the assistance after 9-11 only show his ignorance and his attitude towards NATO in general. He would solemnly not give a damn about helping anyone else in NATO if he doesn’t get paid for it.
⏱️ 🇮🇷
🇺🇸 🇬🇧 🇮🇱 ⚓️⚔️ 🦅
”Possible Joint US-Israel-UK Strikes on Iran Within 36 Hours
Intelschizos analysis (@Schizointel) outlines a large-scale buildup of US, Israeli, and British military assets that could support potential joint strikes on Iran within the next 36 hours, comparing current deployments to those seen in the 12-day war. It estimates a minimum of
https://x.com/israelnewspulse/status/2015043611994231151?s=46
That’s a heck of a lot of hardware, time for the old ladies to head to Russia, there’s surely room for them in the dictator-theocracy reserve.
Weather ❄️💨 🐧
205, the USA will probably first offer Iran’s mullahs to emigrate, otherwise it will be a fire party.
They must act decisively so that Iran does not have time to rain death upon Israel.
Also So Sprach Zarathustra 🔥
Zoroastrianism is one of the world’s oldest faiths, and was founded approximately 3,500 years ago. It is based on the teachings of the Iranian prophet Zarathustra (also known as Zoroaster). In the Yazd fire temple, he is depicted in a painting with a bushy beard and long hair, a halo behind his head, carrying a staff and holding up a single finger, his eyes gazing upward.
Zoroastrians have a particularly strong relationship with fire, which they see as a focus for ritual and contemplation. The ancient flames they tend are called Atash Bahrams, which means ‘victorious fire’. 🔥
https://longnow.org/ideas/the-fire-that-never-goes-out/
MXT – I read that Danes tried to buy Chinese government debt and gave up, and previously capital has left China.
I have no idea if it’s true that investors are turning to China…
Europe should presumably be ahead of China, which is worse than the USA in financial security and, above all – if there is a future conflict, the money will probably be frozen.
Excuse me for joining your bilateral dialogue, but Europe (and Canada) can manage without China. Regarding the EU, South America is clearly ready ✅, India is in progress, and Africa looms?
“The EU agreed to a sweeping trade pact with four South American countries that would create one of the largest free-trade zones in the world.“
https://x.com/nytimes/status/2009617846687429022?s=46
“« The mother of all trade deals »
We are closing in on the 🇪🇺🇮🇳 Free Trade Agreement.
See you soon in Delhi.“
https://x.com/vonderleyen/status/2015037419024757060?s=46
Didn’t the EU Parliament send the agreement to court where it can now be parked for a couple of years?
SvD:
Venezuela. Iran. Syria. Countries that Russian President Vladimir Putin has built partnerships with during his many years in power are in deep crisis.
”It is a prestige loss for Putin that his friends on the international stage are losing power,” says Russia expert Martin Kragh.
Russia’s ties to states currently undergoing upheavals have not provided any security guarantee. When these countries have faced monumental difficulties, Moscow has refrained from providing assistance.
Not acting when friends are in crisis is considered by some to undermine Moscow’s ideas of a “multipolar world,” says a source close to Russia’s government to the independent Russian Meduza.
Trump’s actions in Venezuela/Syria/Iran undermine Russia’s and China’s ambitions for a multipolar world, if we take a strict interpretation. The multipolar world is considered a threat to the prevailing world order.
So, the situation is reversed with world orders. Trump’s actions do not contribute to a multipolar world order but preserve the one we are accustomed to, where Europe sleeps and the USA acts (Lex Balkan).
Prestige loss for Putin as friends falter
https://www.svd.se/a/xr4Rxn/prestige-for-putin-when-friends-falter
Well, that’s how it is, the USA’s actions in certain areas are bad for Russia, and thus good for the rest of the world, but at the same time their actions in other places, especially regarding Ukraine, are good for Russia.
Johan usually says that the USA does what is good for the USA, but Trump is stirring in all pots at the same time, so I don’t think it’s good for anyone.
The only thing that ultimately is good is that Europe is in for a “rude awakening” and hopefully will see that it can’t continue as before,
Trump may be said to partially support Putin in words, but not in actions?
Joakim von Braun made the following comment (on the article above): “It is interesting to see that while Trump generally has Putin’s back, he acts forcefully against the Russians when it comes to Russia’s oil exports. There might be a glimmer of hope for him despite all his despicable craziness.”
And Rude Awakening, I believe Europe would eventually have faced by an American president, regardless of party. Europe’s passivity (read lack of funding and military contributions to NATO) has been a sore point within the American administration long before Trump.
I believe that Johan is right in saying that “the USA does what is good for the USA” but I don’t believe in them dividing up the world, the reason is simple, the USA wants to stand at the top and then they can’t let others rampage freely and risk being overtaken.
But according to their new national security strategy, the USA will primarily focus on the American continent. And there they have shown who is in charge, taking care of Maduro is not so much about needing the oil, rather that China and Russia should not have access to the oil. They are asserting that the USA is in charge.
If Europe had been strong, we could have done the same thing, pick the ships in the shadow fleet to show Putin what a beautiful unipolar world we live in. We have the population and we have the economy, that’s why Vance said in his speech in Munich that the threat to Europe comes from within.
And considering the state the American army is in, combined with how conflicts are shaping up in the world and the risks they pose, we in Europe must take more responsibility for our own security. It stings when someone else says it, but it’s no less true for that.
Niall Ferguson at X
“There is a rapidly forming narrative in the European and liberal media that the Europeans “won Davos”: primarily by getting Trump to “de-escalate” his demand that the United States acquire Greenland from Denmark. 1/8”
“This is a very wrong take. The reality is that Trump won Davos, hands down. And not only did he win it; he owned it. I have never before seen a single individual so completely dominate this vast bazaar of the powerful, the wealthy, the famous, and the self-important. 2/8”
“Trump never seriously meant to annex Greenland or to impose new tariffs on the Europeans. Why would he when the U.S. already enjoys all the military access to the frigid island it could ever possibly need? Fact: Trump means what he says on Truth Social only about half the time. 3/8”
“Ten years ago, Europeans made the mistake of taking Trump neither seriously nor literally. Now they make the opposite mistake of treating him both seriously and literally. 4/8”
“The reason Trump forced Greenland to be the No. 1 topic at Davos was to keep European leaders from meddling in America’s Middle Eastern and Eastern European policy. 5/8”
“Why might Trump prefer the Europeans to be talking about Greenland instead of Iran or Ukraine? Because Europe would be bound to make its usual pleas for “de-escalation” with respect to Tehran. And because the Americans think it was the EU and UK who last year impeded progress toward a peace deal for Ukraine. 6/8”
“Of course, this goes wholly counter to the Davos consensus, which is that wicked Trump has torn up the sacred liberal international order. But, as I never grow tired of reminding you, the Davos consensus is always wrong. Always. 7/8”
8/8 is a link to an article he wrote in The Free Press
I see Trump as a Trickster, nothing wrong with being a trickster, they are needed in every society but the problem arises when one places a trickster in charge of leading a country. I am not entirely sure that Niall Ferguson is right in his analysis, but Trump sending letters to Norway and saying he is tired of mediating peace because he did not receive the Nobel Prize still felt like a trolling move from Trump.
Thank you N Eklund, interesting!
I have been focusing on influencing Americans for a while now on Substack and Bluesky! Watched a movie tonight and the result was this!
https://open.substack.com/pub/jahojariaho/p/america-has-been-here-before?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=1jqzuc
Very good!!!👍