Now I might give Trump a little more credit than he deserves, but I believe that the past six months were a serious attempt by the USA to economically crush China – so far, it has failed.
If one is to be generous towards Trump, a possible explanation for his actions could be that he thought he could make money for his family, benefit Putin, and at the same time bring down China.
This grand Erik journey would end with him becoming even richer, everyone hailing him as a peacemaker after receiving the Nobel Prize, Putin helping him weaken the opposition in the USA so that the GOP’s power would grow stronger, and finally, China would be plunged into a deep economic downturn and start talking about the great leap forward again.
In simple terms, Trump probably grossly underestimated China and Putin while overestimating his own abilities, and above all, those of the USA.
We are where we are, and among the least smart moves was probably pushing India over to China and Russia – yes, we think of curry, head wobbling, and lousy movies where there always has to be dancing, but India is a power player, and which side they choose matters.
It has surely contributed to all competent individuals being fired in the new administration, but they didn’t perform well under Biden either, so the problem is the USA and not just Trump – we are where we are today because of Obama, Trump 1, and the Biden administrations.
What are China and Russia’s plans for the coming years – the answer to that question will probably determine whether we enter a violent global conflict or not.
Russia’s path into Europe should be closed within a year – then the Baltics will have re-mined their border in some kind of Maginot Line with multiple layers of field works and Surovikin-style mining. They seem to have finally settled their argument about the thickness of the bunker walls, which just took a little over three years.
Then there’s always the shift in technological advantage – Ukraine had it in the summer of 2024 and up until sometime last winter, now Russia has leveled the playing field and gained its own advantage after Trump effectively prevented Ukraine from utilizing its edge in 2024 and 2025. The USA did not like Kursk at all, and the refinery attacks ended on February 22, 2025.
Ukraine is, of course, working quietly to neutralize Russia’s technological advantage, and that’s how it goes on until one party in the conflict emerges victorious.
I usually refer to it as a “whack-a-mole” game where you knock down the enemy’s stacks and try to raise your own – if you get a perfect combination, you win the war.
As soon as Ukraine has made progress, we have knocked down their stacks again, either by simply stopping them altogether or by denying them winning materials – or by revealing Ukraine’s plans to Putin so he would be prepared.
Instead, we should have considered how to break the backs of Russia and China. Apparently, we could push Japan down in the 90s so they never recovered because they built good cars everyone wanted to buy, but Russia has some kind of “hundred chances” over them and they only have birds to sell – which Greenpeace marketed as “clean air gas” or whatever it’s called, but that doesn’t make it any less harmful to the newts in the pond in Bromma.
The Russian advantage is a mix of FAB, willingness to sacrifice infantry, some artillery, and a decent drone weapon – as well as large volumes of everything.
Ukraine has solved this by having very little infantry in the front line and a lot of drones. Then they have a rapid response force that can move around in case of a breakthrough – this probably saves many lives, and they have learned the hard way what FAB 1500 and thermobaric FAB can do.
Both sides in the conflict are holding back mechanized units as an offensive reserve, even though there are rumors that Russia is running out of everything, which they are not at all, and they intend to continue their offensive. Ukraine also has an offensive reserve.
The strategic drone warfare is quite evenly matched, but Russia is more vulnerable and suffers greater damage, so we still give the advantage to Ukraine, which has already adapted to the situation and is supported by Europe.
China has finally stepped out of the shadows – on May 9, 2025, they chose Russia in the conflict, and since then, we have learned that for perhaps two years, they have essentially built up Russian military production and provided what is needed, both drone weapons and all other equipment – tanks, armored vehicles, artillery, robots, and ammunition.
I’m not sure if they have assisted with the air force, probably.
China was cautious and hesitant for a long time, and if Russia had lost until the summer of 2024, they would likely have crawled back into their den, but now we are where we are, they took the step over to the dark side.
In 2024, I wrote that “in the summer of 2025, we will see Chinese tanks in Ukraine” – now it became a fully built-up military equipment industry instead, but the point was that China would provide what was lacking for the Russians – which they have done. I am always right about everything.
There is now a window for Russia to escalate towards the Baltics or in Ukraine. The USA is out of the game, and Europe is still hesitating. The “coalition of the willing” is quite loose as country after country is now saying no to troops in Ukraine. The signaling policy is almost at the NATO meeting in 2023.
The risk Russia faces is that the longer this war goes on, the greater the chance that Europe will wholeheartedly join the war – Russia cannot handle that.
Considering all factors, it will probably never be more favorable for Russia to escalate than it is now.
A year from now, their drone advantage will be gone, and there will also be countermeasures against their strategic drone weapons, and Europe has its own equivalents.
Even Russia must expect that country after country will resolve their political deadlock and start taking the Russian subversive activities seriously.
Finland and the Baltics are now getting rid of everything Russian, have closed the border, and are not issuing visas – soon the EU will start doing the same. In 2024, we managed to issue half a million visas to Russians, it’s unbelievable…
My conclusion is therefore that we are heading towards the most dangerous months in the whole war, and the “force posture” that Europe chooses can be crucial.
Right now, country after country is confirming that they will not send troops to Ukraine, and none of our tripwires are in the Baltics even though part of the mission description is that they should be in place in case of an increased threat and Zapad 25 is around the corner.
Russia could grossly misinterpret this as Europe not intending to honor our commitments?
China is our fault – we gave them all production, and now they have built themselves stronger than us, with great patience and a very long-term approach. No four-year terms there, it’s a marathon.
Many warned – no one listened, short-term gains and bribes above all else.
China has done more than that – they have globally secured almost all natural resources and their processing, and together with Russia, ensured that we shut down absolutely everything, fossil fuels, mines, processing, and instead bought from them.
In Africa, they are in almost all countries with important natural resources now either China or through Wagner (the Africa Corps).
China has also made a big move in South America, and the presence of the US fleet off the coast of Venezuela is due to China breaking the oil embargo against them.
For two years, I have tried to read up on how China has rearmed, but everyone says they are not doing it except for the navy – of course, they have shifted their focus to military production just as they have rebuilt Russian capabilities, and they intend to arm one country after another that are their strategic partners – there they get the cash they lose in trade with Europe and the USA.
For example, South Africa should have been promised a military technology platform that makes them unbeatable if they just choose the right side, as having them on their side in southern Africa is strategically important.
We know they have stolen our latest technology and that their R&D now has its own momentum, so if anything, they have improved on the latest we have, except for what we have been trying to build in the last two years perhaps.
All countries build what they believe in and try to figure out the quantity, quality, and competence of the opposing team before war breaks out.
Russian high technology was crap, we know that now, but the willingness to die has compensated, and Ukraine has never received what they needed to win.
We still don’t know how China’s weapons compare to our vehicle fleet and technology platform, there is a whole range of drones and robots in all sizes and designs that we have not tested, and they have laser weapons too.
They have fifth-generation fighter jets and claim to have radar that can detect B2 and F35.
They also claim to have unstoppable robots with very long range, A2A?
The US drone and robot programs are actually not going very well, and Ukraine announced that the drones sent to Ukraine from the West were not game-changers at all.
We are probably significantly behind China on the upward curve, and it may take a while before they no longer have the upper hand.
But China is landlocked and can really only wage war by sea against the enemies they perceive – that is the key to keeping China in check.
And then they are a colonial power with thousands of different languages – that is likely how they will be brought down.
Considering how China, India, Russia, North Korea, and even Trump are treating Belarus like a rock star right now, Lukashenko has obviously promised something – and they are the country bordering Europe for the evil team.
The meeting in Alaska was a broadly smiling Trump before a closed meeting with Putin, and a Trump with a gray face after the meeting with Putin – what did the real Putin say on the video link?
The meeting in China is interestingly timed just before Zapad 25 where Lukashenko was treated like a major player, and Putin – Xi had a chance to agree on – what – in person?
The risk is from now on and maybe a year ahead – time schedules are probably not Russia’s strong suit.
Back to what we de facto know that Putin and Xi are planning –
Putin wants to bring down Ukraine and conquer the Baltics without war with Europe, after that he can start a stunning subversive operation against Poland, Germany, the Balkans, and slowly work his way forward with his pro-Russian governments.
He won’t get the Baltics and Ukraine that way – they, like Finland, will never return to Russian dominance. They are also quite troublesome and quickly expose the Russian subversive activities faster than he can implement them right now, which the GRU constantly complains about in meetings.
Xi needs to take over Taiwan because it acts as a huge aircraft carrier blocking Chinese expansion in Southeast Asia where their enemies are located.
Yes, they could build up their capabilities in Vietnam, but they probably can’t because the Vietnamese government would see it as a covert invasion and it would take time – plus the US would be there immediately and disrupt them with various deals involving McDonald’s and locally produced Coca-Cola.
The easiest solution is for Europe to ensure that Ukraine and the Baltics never fall, and at most, straighten out our eastern border against Russia by Belarus gaining independence, Kaliningrad being demilitarized, and Ukraine regaining control of its entire territory.
Then we in Europe have solved our urgent problem, which is also our problem and no one else’s, even though we constantly ask the US to solve it for us.
The US needs to ensure that China can never take over Taiwan, and the best way to do that is with the American navy and air bases, but somewhat coincidentally, the Philippines and Japan have complained about the American bases, and sometimes they have been closed.
There have also been complaints about American robot batteries in that area, and some have been shut down.
CAGs are big targets for new types of anti-ship missiles that fly faster and are harder to shoot down than the US had anticipated.
Now there are two sides to that coin, and perhaps air bases are safer on Diego Garcia and in the US than on bases closer to China where they could infiltrate.
Although many four-man groups of Chinese have entered via Mexico before, China already has SOF in place to combat high-value targets.
An aircraft is vulnerable during takeoff and landing.
For China, the big risk is the B2, they know where the fleet is but maybe not the submarines.
They also know where the robot batteries are.
Then there are China’s A2A missiles, which are said to be hard to shoot down and fast, along with a radar they claim can see everything.
I have never understood why the US has not built large bases in Australia, but maybe it’s politics?
Air bases, robot bases, naval bases, army bases, and SIGINT, maybe they have that through Five Eyes?
Australia should gratefully accept such things now anyway, and then there is a reasonable distance to China and a country with good perimeter defense, making it difficult for China to infiltrate the country and the bases.
Anyway – if there is a will, I think it is easier for Europe to solve the problem child Russia out of the two.
Probably, under such high stress, Russia will collapse into internal power struggles, and then it will be like the Hunger Games in the country with a closed border against them – we throw biscuits over the minefields and teach courses in democracy and tolerance.
How do we bring down China, because it’s us or them now. If we solve Russia first, will we buy ourselves time?
Why is it us or them – is Johan No.1 exaggerating again for his likes on Twitter?
Not everyone can be equally wealthy in a country and have the same amount – you have those who drive Rolls Royce and dine at the Grand Hotel, and those who cycle and save all week to afford pizza on Fridays.
It works the same way in the world – if Europe wants to continue to have a high/highest standard of living, we will not be able to afford to give it away to China.
Just looking at the UK and their Brexit is almost enough to understand that as soon as you crack the door open, someone else will kick it wide open and run in.
China already has us in a stranglehold – all production in China, same quality cheaper than what we can sell for.
They have the raw materials and they can deny us things that would completely halt our production, right now they are stopping what we need for our defense production.
China wants Russia and Belarus to be at least an open wound in Europe so we are fully occupied with that, I guess.
Now that China has stepped into the spotlight, it’s because they considered themselves strong enough.
They have their 30 countries standing on their side of the fence and they are now selling obscene amounts of high-tech weapons to these countries – an arms race is already underway where different countries will become dominant in their regions.
Thailand might not be very happy now, and the friends of the West are becoming fewer – unless an alternative is offered, it was bound to end up here sooner or later.
Europe should completely let go of the world and just focus on Africa once our eastern border is sorted out.
Africa is not only a treasure trove of the natural resources we need but also a huge market – if we offer fair trade agreements to country after country (for real) and access to our (internal) market, many countries will choose us.
As long as we don’t come running with demands for democracy and other certifications that scare them off, not all of these countries are ready for a transition to the opposite gender of our youth, which we have now accepted as part of upbringing and something we fully encourage.
That would be a win-win if done correctly this time – Europe becomes the mother of all markets so we don’t have to worry about selling our products for the next 100 years, and we have all the natural resources we need.
Africa will become the continent of the future where they come closer to us, and many of the problems they have today will simply be built away with a higher standard of living.
Over time, they will start their own production, processing, and higher education – Africa has a very bright future.
A win-win if I ever saw one.
How do we take down China, or how does the US take down China?
Let’s not forget that China has been preparing for war for a long time and using all the dirty tricks in the toolbox, so a tit-for-tat is only fair.
I imagine this after a Russian defeat in Ukraine when the whole show collapses.
-We buy and China produces, and their group of friends are not great consumers – Europe and the USA stop buying Chinese to begin with.
-We clear out China and Russia from Africa in the best possible way, approaching countries where they support the rebels first if the government is not a bloodthirsty dictator and offering relocation assistance.
-We know that China will choke off everything they can to us, so we find new ways, it will take a few years. English Pensana in Angola now has agreements with the USA and Europe.
-economic warfare, China has always played dirty with us, so why can’t we do the same with them, yes, they will use their national debt weapon against the USA so the EU might have to overbuy for a while?
-Europe’s fleets are moved to Australia and new naval bases there, and are part of the protection of our pals in Asia – Australia, NZ, South Korea, the Philippines, and Japan. This is post-Russian crash.
-we bring back manufacturing to Europe and automation gets a boost.
-we start sensible electricity production again.
-we also gear up against China so they have to gear up too, then we start hinting at “star wars” and space lasers and lean back.
-Taiwan is defended.
-Our friends in Asia have our full support, they should know that Europe stands behind them.
All of this is below the level of war, and we are only doing to China what they do to others, including us.
I believe that country will explode into a civil war in a thousand ways if you push the right buttons – just like with Russia, the Han Chinese are not popular where Han Chinese are not the majority.
Yes, you also understand that we have to cooperate with the USA despite all the mistakes they have made.
Russia and China have already isolated themselves – they are only getting what they deserve.
It could also turn into open war, and then China and the USA will pound on each other until they get tired, the USA will never invade China and vice versa. It might take 3-5 years before they run out of steam maybe?
There is nothing positive about that, but the upside for us is that we will be left alone and can send what we can spare to help the USA.
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Russian losses in Ukraine 2025-09-09
Better pressure on KWIA lately. Has stayed close to 1000.
AFU reports:
Too high
My AI provided a final report last night!
Confirmed: The Kyiv Cabinet (government) building was indeed damaged during the night of September 7-8, 2025.
Clarifying Detail: The building was struck—likely by an Iskander missile that failed to detonate—rather than solely by debris from downed drones. This marks a clearer attribution of cause.
The provision from Mathernova resolves much of the earlier ambiguity and suggests a direct hit was the cause of the damage.
Then I repeat, bomb the Kremlin! ✊😀
If the projectile were to veer slightly to the left and hit the Cathedral of Vasily, so be it. Kirill had become irritated, but that’s the way the cookie crumbles.
“A ballistic Iskander missile was used in the attack on the government office in Kyiv on Sunday. This was stated by the Ukrainian chief of staff Andriy Yermak, according to AFP.
An area between 800 and 900 square meters was destroyed. According to EU Ambassador Katarina Mathernova, who visited the site on Monday, the entire building was not completely destroyed only thanks to the fact that the ‘missile could not detonate completely’, she says.”
https://omni.se/ballistisk-robot-anvandes-vid-ryska-attacken-mot-kyiv/a/5E13VX
Just now it has been verified so bomb the Kremlin!
Eyewitness visit – The EU Ambassador has visited the site and pointed out the physical traces of a direct hit.
Official confirmations – Jermak and other high-ranking officials have openly stated that it was a direct Iskander attack.
Detailed description – Reports mention that the missile did not explode completely, which explains why the entire building did not collapse.
Grom 2 in the Kremlin
In Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka, the fighting activities intensified significantly in the past 24 hours. Novopavlivka reached record levels that have only been exceeded once since the beginning of May. Additionally, the adjacent sectors accumulated a record number of attacks.
In Slobozhansky-Kursk 11💥
S Slobozhansky 5↘️
Kupyansk 9💥↗️
Lyman 14💥
Siverskyi 7↘️
Kramatorsk 4
Toretsk 9💥
Pokrovsk 64💥💥💥↗️
Novopavlivka 51💥💥💥↗️
Huliaypillia 0
Orikhivsk 0
Dnipro/Prydniprovsky 4
In the direction of Pokrovsk, the Ukrainian defense forces repelled 64 attacks from the aggressor in the areas around the settlements of Rodynske, Myrolyubivka, Promin, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Udachne, Novopidhorodne, Dachne, Novoukrainka, Sukhyi Yar, Shakove, Molodetske, and towards Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Novoeekonomichne, and Novopavlivka.
In the direction of Novopavlivka, the Ukrainian defense forces repelled 51 enemy attacks in the areas around the settlements of Filiya, Yalta, Piddubne, Tolstoy, Lisne, Oleksandrograd, Sichneve, Komyshuvakha, Novoivanivka, Zelenyi Hai, Maliivka, Novogeorgiivka, Zelenyi Pole, Zaporizke, Obratne, Olgivske, Poltavka.
👍
Are we perhaps starting to see Russia’s last major attempt to take Pokrovsk before winter?
I suspect that we may see a major setback quite soon when attempting a decisive attack.
Yes. It has recently been reported that Russia has built up with 100,000 men in Pokrovsk. And military equipment in the area has also been reported.
Sources on that? I’m getting different signals from Kenneth Gregg who is on site regularly or in contact with people who are there continuously!
Things that I have recently reported on here on the blog.
“Kyiv says that Russia has amassed around 100,000-strong force near Pokrovsk, a key strategic hub that has faced a Russian onslaught for many months.”
September 2, 2025
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-liberates-village-near-pokrovsk-in-donetsk-oblast-military-says/
“On the flanks, Russian troops have increased assaults using armored and motorized vehicles in an effort to sever supply routes and encircle the Pokrovsk area.”
September 6, 2025
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-preparing-decisive-breakthrough-near-pokrovsk-ukrainian-military-says/
One more thing is that China is rapidly expanding its nuclear power. 150 reactors in the next 15 years, and they are modern designs. This means they will have total energy dominance in heavy industry, including the ability to sell the energy technology itself. They are also self-sufficient in thorium for the next generation of reactors they are working on. Production is essentially raw materials plus energy, and they aim to excel in both.
You have a good overview of what the West needs to do, but it’s worth considering how Sweden can come out on top here. We were well on our way to becoming the world’s best country but got nervous in front of the goal, and we read in Bamse that if you are very strong, you must also be very kind. We need to change our attitude to be empathetic but very determined in substance. I believe we can do it! And then full steam ahead with nuclear power while the rest of Europe hesitates.
In addition, huge investments in Wind and solar, another step towards eventually making them largely independent of energy imports. Oil will be required for petrochemical products, lubricants, plastics, etc. but when it comes to energy, they will be self-sufficient. With their enormous needs, it is a huge gain just that, but in addition, they are building knowledge and efficient production lines to be able to export.
For the same reason, they are still building new coal-fired power plants even though they have promised to stop using coal by 2060.
It’s not so much about the environment as it is about becoming as self-sufficient as possible.
They are doing what Europe should have done much earlier to avoid dependence on gas and oil from, among others, Russia.
If Europe decided, we should be able to develop completely unique SMRs, but it requires us to come together and make a decision in that case.
Unfortunately, I think the ship has sailed for Sweden to be able to do much on its own. We do not have the money needed to make the major investments required to compete with China except in certain more limited areas, but of course, we should do everything we can in the areas where we have (and can acquire) expertise, but then it is also important that we do not let that slip away from us.
Yup 👍👍
Speaking of China and utilizing minorities for destabilization, that train may have left the station a generation or two ago. Look at East Turkestan/Xinjiang where the most severe sinicization is in full effect. Political officers living with the local population to ensure they speak Mandarin and nothing else, and definitely do not worship any other god than the Communist Party. Sipsongpanna/Xishuangbanna, ethnically, linguistically, and culturally dominated by the Tai people (the same ethnic groups as the majority population in Laos and Thailand) 20 years ago, are now a minority in their own “autonomous” sub-republic, reduced to an ethnic spectacle for Han Chinese tourists from eastern China to photograph. High-speed trains reaching peripheral states are not only to improve infrastructure, but to spread Han Chinese culture and make it the majority even in the provinces. Just look at Tibet, they could maintain their distinctiveness, despite Chinese occupation, thanks to geographical isolation, but now the trains from Beijing are rolling at full speed, to the delight of our journalists and politicians (so environmentally friendly, so unifying, so fast).
Ukraine was subjected to the same kind of Russification during the Soviet era but has still managed to rise. However, there is still a challenge in China. China is probably still sensitive to local unrest. It would affect their economy, which is their main strength and top priority.
Åfan 😳
we need to hurry up 👍👍
If Europe (EU) is to have any chance against China (and unfortunately also the USA), we must ensure that we stand united to collectively implement the initiatives and efforts required.
If we are to bring production back home and be able to carry out the necessary initiatives so that we are not left behind, it requires significantly more than what individual countries can manage.
Sweden once had a thriving car industry, but in a global market, we stand no chance. For example, China with its enormous domestic market is not even dependent on exports to make the large investments required profitable.
The EU as a whole has failed to market itself and make people understand why the EU is needed. Here, a bit of honest campaigning is needed.
While the EU has not quite succeeded in communicating why it is needed, the far right and Russian propaganda are working hard together to divide Europe. On one hand, they do everything they can to discredit the EU and question most things, and on the other hand, they try to persuade each country to preferably leave the EU.
The far right are populists, so when they noticed that the majority supported Ukraine, they still chose to go with that line, despite being friendly towards both Hungary and Russia before the war. It is the ideal society for many of them.
As soon as they see the pendulum swing, they will do the same, and the arguments will be the same as those driven by MAGA in the USA.
By the way, it is not the environmental movements that are bought by Russia, it is the far right, here are some examples:
According to Czech and EU authorities, the Kremlin-backed channel Voice of Europe has channeled hundreds of thousands of euros — sometimes up to a million euros per month — to dozens of far-right politicians in several European countries.
In September 2014, RN took a loan of 9 million euros from a Moscow-based bank (First Czech Russian Bank), which affected their credibility as impartial on Russian issues.”
The Bulgarian far-right populist party Revival signed a formal cooperation agreement with Putin’s party, United Russia, in April 2025 to exchange experiences, ideas, and political methods.”
There are plenty of examples, but where is the evidence that the environmental movement would be bought by Russia? It’s typical of the far right to try to project their own shortcomings onto the opponent.
Anyway.
Without a strong, united, and proactive EU, we will not be able to transition and meet the competition from, among others, China. We need to make technological and industrial investments at a level that we can only afford if we join forces.
The investment in the battery factory was well-intentioned but poorly executed. Strangely enough, everyone on the far right hates the investment, but that is of course because it is linked to the environment, for there they have been fed propaganda so that they instinctively hate everything related to the environment. In reality, they should have praised the project because these are the exact projects needed for us to free ourselves from China. However, they failed miserably in this case, and it is worth criticizing, but the idea was right.
The far right was against it from the beginning and are thrilled that it failed. There is a high risk that it will be a while before new attempts are made. No one is happier than both Russia and China.
A strong, united EU is of course also needed for our defense and for us to seriously be able to help Ukraine defeat Russia (or push them back in the Baltics if needed).
I am convinced that the reason we have not done more for Ukraine is that the EU still behaves like a collection of individual countries instead of a union where decisions are made towards a direction and driven forward. Now the leaders of the largest countries are preoccupied with their own local political concerns and must twist and turn based on what the current opinion says. At the same time, we have member countries siding with Russia.
Only when we have built a strong EU after clearing out the Russian subversive activities and stopping the internal forces trying to divide us, will we be able to move forward.
Unfortunately, it looks like we have a long way to go.
Russia has bought both extremes, right and left.
just not a federal EU but more cooperation.
we must treat China, the USA, and Russia as they treat us
I am pretty sure that the Green Party in SE was the only environmental party that opposed supporting the idea that Russian gas would be considered green, this before 2022. Other parties, including Die Grüne, thought it was green energy. It has also been claimed that Gazprom, led by Gerhard Schröder, influenced these parties.
Why would that claim be strange, is it only the right-wing that can end up on the wrong side of the line?
Then one can always wonder why the Green Party was so damn particular and quick to shut down Swedish nuclear power, I don’t believe it was solely due to stupidity or lack of education.
You can watch the whole thing, but at 10:06 Henrik brings this up:
https://youtu.be/AVnWKtqpQwg?si=jDbHxgbdYUrO3z7Q
Ukraine recaptures another village in Donetsk Oblast from Russian troops, military says. Zarichne’s strategic importance comes from its position near key transport routes connecting Sloviansk and Lyman.
https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-troops-recapture-village-in-donetsk-oblast-from-russian-forces/
👍
Two explosions in Russia’s Far East target military unit accused of war crimes in Ukraine, HUR source says. Khabarovsk in Russia’s Far East is more than 6,000 kilometers from Ukraine.
https://kyivindependent.com/two-explosions-in-russias-far-east-target-military-unit-accused-of-war-crimes-in-ukraine-hur-says/
🇵🇱 As Poland builds Europe’s largest army, Russia’s ongoing war reveals its gaps
As Western officials warn about an open clash with Moscow within the next five years, Warsaw readies to bear the brunt of such a war.
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-shows-gaps-in-polands-military-drive/
👍
Not surprisingly, drones and anti-drone technology are their weaknesses.
Otherwise, they have the third largest military power in NATO after the USA and Turkey.
I guess if Poland decided to help Ukraine, it would be enough to push out the Russians.
Ukraine is using everything they have in drones and Poland is going in with brute force.
Korkat och mycket dyrare att INTE undvika den risken genom att få slut på ryZzen där kriget nu pågår i Ukraina! Just me sayin….
#slavaukrainii
Exactly, it has always been the most (cost-)effective solution to help Ukraine win, but it seems that those in charge still haven’t understood.
Exactly has been said since 2022
The result from 7/9:
“❗️On the night of September 7, 🇺🇦Ukrainian drones struck at least two fuel tanks at the Transneft “🇷🇺Vtorovo” pumping station in Penkino, Vladimir region”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lyf5wxtj4c2k
😳
Off-Topic, USA
“The highest court in the USA has overturned a lower court’s decision that limited the immigration authority ICE’s raids in Los Angeles, several media outlets report.
This means that ICE is allowed to stop individuals without reasonable suspicion that they have immigrated illegally to the USA. Critics warn of increased racial profiling of Latin Americans and non-whites.
California Governor Gavin Newsom warns that the decision will bring terror to the state’s residents.
– Trump’s private police force has now been given the green light to go after your families.”
https://omni.se/ice-far-utokad-ratt-att-stoppa-los-angeles-bor/a/4BMbgq
Off-Topic, France
A victory for Russia, internal political problems and to top it all off, economic problems as well, naturally reduces the chances of increasing support for Ukraine, rather the opposite.
“France’s government collapse pushes the country even deeper into a quagmire of high borrowing costs and low growth, writes Reuters.
François Bayrou’s plans to reduce spending by 44 billion euros will now be significantly watered down by his successor, according to the news agency.
– There is no positive scenario. There is no way out. There is no credible scenario where the same fiscal tightening is achieved,” says Pictet’s chief macroeconomist Frederik Ducrozet to Reuters.”
https://omni.se/ekonom-finns-inget-positivt-scenario-ingen-vag-ut/a/3MvqKA
Russian influence involved in this
An example of what the Chinese can do, when the state supports and when the investments have already been covered by the domestic market, is to then dump prices when it’s time to export.
“The Chinese electric car manufacturer Xpeng is planning a global launch of its low-cost brand Mona in 2026. CNBC reports.
The electric car brand Mona was launched in China last year. Xpeng has aggressively pushed prices down. In its basic version, the Mona M03 model costs 119,000 yuan, equivalent to about 260,000 kronor.”
https://omni.se/kinesisk-elbilsjatte-planerar-global-lansering/a/Jbj6Xj
Some interesting points in this context, when companies with Chinese majority ownership try to influence the EU.
Now, of course, I see electric cars as the future, but in reality, it should be the European companies that should instead push the EU to get support in their transition when it comes to streamlining production and ensuring that deliveries of the raw materials and other resources needed are secured.
Now China is complicating the export of magnets and metals, which increases the cost of European production and further promotes competition from China.
Projects have now been initiated within the EU to address these issues, but efforts probably need to be increased.
“Electric car companies pressure EU: Damaging competitiveness
Over 150 executives from European electric car companies, including Polestar and Volvo Cars, urge the EU to stand by the decision to ban new petrol and diesel cars from 2035. This is reported by Reuters.
In a letter to Ursula von der Leyen, they warn that a weakened target would slow down the electric car market, benefit non-European competitors, and erode investors’ confidence.”
https://omni.se/elbilsbolag-pressar-eu-skadar-konkurrenskraft/a/dRyvQw
Economic warfare from China
Off-Topic, Sweden
Appalling behavior!
Fortunately, it didn’t escalate completely but they settled for shouting slogans. It could have ended really badly otherwise.
“Palestine activists followed minister on the street
Carl-Oskar Bohlin (M), minister for civil defense, has posted a clip from his walk through Gamla Stan in Stockholm after a meeting with the Moderate Party parliamentary group.
“A group of people with antisocial dominant behavior started following me which resulted in me simply not being able to get home, for the simple reason that my address here in Stockholm is not public,” he writes.
The Palestine activists can be heard shouting messages like “shame on you” and “blood on your hands”.”
https://omni.se/palestinaaktivister-foljde-minister-i-gamla-stan/a/KMoL8o
“Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin (M) argues that the Palestine activists who followed him in Gamla Stan in Stockholm on Monday evening are “undermining fundamental democratic rules”.
He says that it is “obvious” that the purpose was to make elected officials feel unsafe in the public environment.
“I was quite appalled on behalf of Swedish democracy,” he tells TV4 Nyheterna.”
https://omni.se/bohlin-bedrovad-a-svenska-demokratins-vagnar/a/vga6ym
They can afford to stand there day in and day out with the help of (my guess) Russian means! #fckptn
It’s not war, but it’s not peace either in Sweden, it’s HYBRID WARFARE!
Yes, not at all impossible that the Russians have a hand in the game.
Exactly, we are affected by hybrid warfare and it is time that we realize it seriously and start fighting back.
There is evidence of this in the USA at universities and in the Palestine protests, so it is confirmed that there were Russian funds sponsoring their stay in the tents!
Ah, I had missed that!
Hope there will be further investigations, everything the Russians are behind must come to light!
Maybe even find some bribed environmental activist too! 😀
There is proven Russian influence! Supported by disinformation and propaganda networks as usual, especially through something called Doppelganger.
Bribed environmental activist 😳
“😎 Förstörelse av rysk utrustning i hangar och infanteriskydd i riktning mot Sumy av enheten Kryla do Pekla.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lyfa32n5v22c
🇩🇪🇺🇦/1. The German Rheinmetall announced a new large-scale contract with Ukraine. According to the words of the general director of the company, until the end of this year, Ukraine will receive the first batch of Skyranger mobile anti-aircraft defense systems for protection against drones.
/2. The contract will reportedly be signed on Wednesday at the DSEI defense exhibition in London. The exact number and modification of Skyranger that Ukraine will receive is not yet disclosed.
https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3lyfaei7lec2h
Skyranger 30 has a range of up to 3 km, Skyranger 35 about 4 km. The system can also be integrated with small air defense missiles and possibly laser weapons in the future
Cool
A thought regarding your loss reporting and the thing about not seeing any real pressure with drones, for example at Pokrovsk?
When you take out so many vehicles, you of course also take out many drone transports 😉
So even if the RyZz manufacture many, I guess you still take out a lot already on trucks!
Love your MadMax reports MatsX 😉
True, many are probably taken out even before they get close enough to the front. Then you see every now and then that they also hit places where the drone operators have grouped. Then not only they are taken out but also the nearby drone base.
Maybe it’s time to change the name again from MXT to MadMax? 😀 👍
Today’s Gregg!
The emphasis of the last three trips has been on defensive operations, while this one is now escalating more towards equipment for offensive operations.
At the Pokrovsk front, the communities of Razine and Novotoretske have been completely liberated from tourists, and the area between these villages is now in the gray zone, which means that the ryzzen is completely cut off to the west and north of the Razine-Novotoretske line. At the same time, we have attacked the headquarters of the Pokrovsk front located in Donetsk with our own missiles. I am waiting for the announcement of the results, but the buildings have been completely leveled to the ground. It was not Flamingo but the smaller cruise missile “Do Bisa” (go to hell) that flies fast and low. Already now, I can claim that the ryzzen’s so-called hay offensive is severely limping.
There have also been official reports that Ukraine is currently producing 60% of the weapons needed. This significantly reduces the dependence on the goodwill of the USA.
What has now become an everyday occurrence continues, namely our attacks on the ryzzen’s oil/gas infrastructure as well as fuel depots both on occupied and ryzk land.
I must once again return to the corruption within the military. Many important Ukrainian volunteers have had enough and ended their activities, often at risk of retaliation from certain military personnel. I am in the middle of an investigation of a very sad case of high military corruption. The authorities have been informed and a large amount of evidence has been submitted. I will continue to follow the investigation for a while, but if nothing happens, I will expose the case with the evidence here on my FB page. This case shows how important it is to deliver directly to the frontline units and not to a depot far behind the front. I gained good experience in how it operates with the corrupt sergeant 1.5 years ago. I have the evidence for both cases in a safe place, and you can be sure that there will be a documentary about these events after the war.
From now on, the updates will be more spread out in time since we are in the final stages of preparing for our trip, which will start in the near future.
SLAVA UKRAINI
putin Do Pisa!!!
Do Pisa!
There were both good and bad news. Good that it looks good at the front but extremely sad to read about corruption. Unfortunately, perhaps it is precisely war, when everything is more or less chaotic, and where everyone is under pressure and maybe doesn’t have so many choices when it comes to getting what is needed, a perfect breeding ground for corruption.
Regarding Medved’s drunken threat against Finland?
It was what Martti J. Kari said! When the pressure on leadership is extreme, ryZzen responds with increased verbal muscle! It’s like compensating with elbows when losing grip on the arguments.
By portraying the enemy as threatening, one controls the nation’s emotional state, strengthens identity in times of crisis. It also helps to divert attention from one’s own failures in Ukraine, using strong rhetoric to create the narrative that “the outside world is worse, we are just defending ourselves.”
Nuclear threats or empty tin sheds at the Finnish border. It’s a sandbox in a ryZk way!
The crazy thing is that we have plenty of useful idiots falling for this!
Finland will not give in to Russia once again. I can guarantee that. Then only verbal threats remain, which border on the childish. Probably a human behavior if you ask a behavioral scientist. But terribly boring to listen to.
Sometimes one wonders if it wasn’t better when we only had paper newspapers and it could take days before the news was reported.
Now all nonsense spreads in real time and leaves its mark and influences before people have even had time to reflect, and it doesn’t matter if it is later adjusted or discovered to be pure lies, the impact has already been made.
In the old days of paper newspapers, there was a certain space and not everything was thrown out but selection had to be made regarding which news should be presented. In addition, the newspapers needed to take care of their reputation.
Now when it spreads via social media, there is no one responsible and even newspapers jump on board with clickbaits, otherwise they can’t keep up and lose visitors.
The quality and truthfulness suffer.
Hmm, could there be certain things that were still better before? 🤔😂
Filipin! The same thought has struck me!
NOTE: Journalists actually have a set of rules to follow but it doesn’t seem to work!
The automation of news (profit optimization) lets through a lot of risky crap!
Then there are fewer and fewer who have traditional media as a source, whether it’s newspapers or online.
It’s probably worst for the younger generation, when news coverage consists of TikTok videos, it’s not surprising if they become easy targets for propaganda.
Speaking of those hankineser who are causing so much trouble. Let the hondynasty take over, high time for China to become a matriarchy!
(and sorry, I’ll find my way out…)
It was good. Let the good cover the genitals take over so the unpleasant can appear in the background.
🤣🤣 Wonderful!!
But it’s important to keep the unpleasantness in check… short leash is recommended, until the training has taken effect (if it ever does in THAT case…).
It took a while to understand but it was fun 🤣🤣🤣
“Over 20 civilians have been killed in a Russian airstrike on the village of Jarova in Donetsk, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on social media. Zelensky stated that people had gathered to collect their pensions when the bomb hit.
‘Directly targeting people. Ordinary civilians,’ he writes and shares a video showing several dead people lying on the ground.
Zelensky urges the world to react to the attack.
‘The USA must respond. Europe must respond. G20 must respond.'”
https://omni.se/zelenskyj-20-civila-dodade-i-rysk-attack-mot-by/a/KMoPr5
“The defense makes another major investment in air defense. This time systems are purchased from Poland for 3 billion Swedish kronor, reports Ekot.
The weapons, which can be fired from the shoulder, are primarily intended for use by army soldiers and are highlighted as easy to both transport and handle.
This is the third major air defense purchase in a short period of time – earlier this summer, two deals worth a total of 10.5 billion Swedish kronor were made.”
https://omni.se/forsvaret-koper-luftvarn-fran-polen-for-3-miljarder/a/3Mv5oM
https://www.sverigesradio.se/artikel/forsvaret-koper-nytt-luftvarn-for-flera-miljarder
Manpads?
“En brutalt barbarisk rysk flygattack med en bomb träffade byn Yarova i Donetsk-regionen. Direkt på människor. Vanliga civila. Just i det ögonblick när pensioner delades ut. Enligt preliminära rapporter överstiger dödssiffran 20 personer. Ryssland är en terroriststat.”
https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3lyfg2jwvb22r
⚡️Today, 9 September 2025, at around 11 a.m., Russian occupiers carried out an airstrike with a guided aerial bomb (KAB) on the village of Yarova in the Kramatorsk district of Donetsk region.
In blatant violation of international humanitarian law, Russian war criminals struck the location where pensions were being distributed to civilians of Donetsk region.
At this moment, more than 20 people are reported dead…
We extend our condolences to the families and loved ones of the victims.
Evacuation of the wounded to stabilization points for medical assistance is underway.
Rescue operations continue, consequences are being clarified.
https://x.com/generalstaffua/status/1965372166612156459?s=46
“⚡️ Putin told White House he plans to seize Donbas by end of 2025, Zelensky says. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Moscow’s plans could cost “years and a million people,” or even “two or three million corpses” if Russia accelerates its offensive.”
https://bsky.app/profile/kyivindependent.com/post/3lyfjusrw6s2s
Very interesting when Trump talks about peace 🧐
“❗️🇺🇦Ukrainian military from the 35th Marine Brigade repelled the 🇷🇺Russian offensive in the Donetsk direction”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lyfjgmv4ak2k
Off-Topic, Sweden, weather
Another 30-50mm of rain is not likely to improve the situation.
“SMHI has issued a yellow warning for rain on Thursday and Friday in Västernorrland. The warning affects the areas that were hit hard by the weekend’s downpours.
– It’s large amounts, says meteorologist Moa Hallberg to TT.
There may be between 30 and 50 millimeters of rain – locally even larger amounts.
Since the ground is saturated, the water can quickly find its way to the watercourses, writes SMHI. Therefore, there is a risk of high flows in streams and rivers.”
https://omni.se/varning-for-mer-regn-langs-norrlandskusten/a/73WqB3
Good thing we never dismantled our dams like Spain 👍
💥🔥👍
“💥Another main oil pipeline was blown up in the Saratov region, — RBC with reference to the GUR Main oil pipeline “Kuibyshev-Lysychansk”, which supplied the army of the aggressor country with oil products. The capacity of the affected facility is 82 million tons per year.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lyfkua6zas2u
It’s probably the combo that causes the soup shortage. You cut the whole chain
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/us-china-submarine-fleets-nuclear-2ef36d54
1/✍️
U.S.-China Rivalry Sparks a Submarine Arms Race
Beijing’s fleet gets quieter and more lethal; Washington leads in tech, lags in production
“China is on the verge of becoming a world-class submarine power, with new technology and a bigger, better fleet that is spurring a new undersea arms race in the Pacific”
2/
China is on the verge of becoming a world-class submarine power, with new technology and a bigger, better fleet that is gaining on the U.S. and its allies—spurring a new undersea arms race in the Pacific.
Rapid improvements are making Beijing’s underwater navy quieter and faster, capable of carrying more advanced weapons and better sensors and able to remain submerged for longer.
At the same time, Beijing’s military has extended its reach
https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/how-chinas-military-is-flexing-its-power-in-the-pacific-17e6e280
deeper into the Pacific, confronting rivals in the South China Sea and performing blockade and invasion drills around Taiwan, where a conflict could demand a greater role for submarines than at any time since World War II.
3/
That is pushing the U.S.—which stations about 60% of its worldwide submarine force in the Indo-Pacific—and its allies to bulk up their own underwater fleets.
China’s military has submarine bases from Liaoning in the north to Hainan island in the South China Sea, part of a naval buildup that has enabled Beijing to patrol nearby waters and project power far from its shores.
As the U.S. adapts to meet what it sees as China’s growing threat, bases as far west as Guam and regional rotations give America’s submarines deeper reach into the Pacific. The Navy has moved several of its most advanced fast-attack submarines—the Virginia class—to the region since April last year.
In a military conflict, Pacific nations would seek to preserve—or obstruct—maritime trade and other shipping traffic through strategic waterways, drawing submarines into the vital role of the stealthy, sustained defense of chokepoints.
Sources: U.S. Defense Department (China naval bases); Congressional Research Service (U.S. defense sites); U.S. Navy (location and numbers of submarines); Hague Center for Strategic Studies (maritime chokepoints); Global Maritime Traffic (shipping traffic)
“Pretty much every country that aspires to have a half-decent navy in the Indo-Pacific is building submarines, or acquiring submarines,” said Peter Jennings, a director at Strategic Analysis Australia and a former deputy secretary in Australia’s defense department.
“There’s no doubt they are very useful.”
4/
But the U.S. and its allies are facing stiff challenges in keeping up with China.
The U.S. is struggling to build new submarines.
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/warship-shows-why-u-s-navy-is-falling-behind-china-94cb9a87
(A Chinese nuclear-powered submarine near the port city of Qingdao in 2019. Photo: jason lee/Reuters)
5/
Facing production concerns, the Trump administration is reviewing the 2021 “Aukus” defense pact,
https://www.wsj.com/world/pentagon-review-of-aukus-security-pact-worries-u-k-australia-495a84e9?mod=article_inline
an agreement intended to help deter Chinese aggression.
Under the pact, Australia is meant to buy nuclear-powered submarines from the U.S. and work with the U.K. to build a new sub incorporating U.S. technology
6/6
China until recently didn’t present such a challenge. For years, Beijing focused on building a fleet of diesel-electric submarines that were sufficient for patrolling its backyard in the Western Pacific. China’s first nuclear-powered submarine, which entered service in 1974, was a loud, slow vessel whose biggest threat was in exposing its crew to radiation.
🧵https://x.com/anno1540/status/1965323121763725357?s=46
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/us-china-submarine-fleets-nuclear-2ef36d54
1/✍️
U.S.-China Rivalry Sparks a Submarine Arms Race Beijing’s fleet gets quieter and more lethal; Washington leads in tech, lags in production
”China is on the verge of becoming a world-class submarine power, with new technology and a bigger, better fleet that is spurring a new undersea arms race in the Pacific”
2/ China is on the verge of becoming a world-class submarine power, with new technology and a bigger, better fleet that is gaining on the U.S. and its allies—spurring a new undersea arms race in the Pacific.
Rapid improvements are making Beijing’s underwater navy quieter and faster, capable of carrying more advanced weapons and better sensors and able to remain submerged for longer.
At the same time, Beijing’s military has extended its reach
https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/how-chinas-military-is-flexing-its-power-in-the-pacific-17e6e280
deeper into the Pacific, confronting rivals in the South China Sea and performing blockade and invasion drills around Taiwan, where a conflict could demand a greater role for submarines than at any time since World War II.
3/ That is pushing the U.S.—which stations about 60% of its worldwide submarine force in the Indo-Pacific—and its allies to bulk up their own underwater fleets.
China’s military has submarine bases from Liaoning in the north to Hainan island in the South China Sea, part of a naval buildup that has enabled Beijing to patrol nearby waters and project power far from its shores.
As the U.S. adapts to meet what it sees as China’s growing threat, bases as far west as Guam and regional rotations give America’s submarines deeper reach into the Pacific. The Navy has moved several of its most advanced fast-attack submarines—the Virginia class—to the region since April last year.
In a military conflict, Pacific nations would seek to preserve—or obstruct—maritime trade and other shipping traffic through strategic waterways, drawing submarines into the vital role of the stealthy, sustained defense of chokepoints.
Sources: U.S. Defense Department (China naval bases); Congressional Research Service (U.S. defense sites); U.S. Navy (location and numbers of submarines); Hague Center for Strategic Studies (maritime chokepoints); Global Maritime Traffic (shipping traffic)
“Pretty much every country that aspires to have a half-decent navy in the Indo-Pacific is building submarines, or acquiring submarines,” said Peter Jennings, a director at Strategic Analysis Australia and a former deputy secretary in Australia’s defense department.
“There’s no doubt they are very useful.”
4/ But the U.S. and its allies are facing stiff challenges in keeping up with China.
The U.S. is struggling to build new submarines.
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/warship-shows-why-u-s-navy-is-falling-behind-china-94cb9a87
(A Chinese nuclear-powered submarine near the port city of Qingdao in 2019. Photo: jason lee/Reuters)
5/ Facing production concerns, the Trump administration is reviewing the 2021 “Aukus” defense pact,
https://www.wsj.com/world/pentagon-review-of-aukus-security-pact-worries-u-k-australia-495a84e9?mod=article_inline
an agreement intended to help deter Chinese aggression.
Under the pact, Australia is meant to buy nuclear-powered submarines from the U.S. and work with the U.K. to build a new sub incorporating U.S. technology
6/6 China until recently didn’t present such a challenge. For years, Beijing focused on building a fleet of diesel-electric submarines that were sufficient for patrolling its backyard in the Western Pacific. China’s first nuclear-powered submarine, which entered service in 1974, was a loud, slow vessel whose biggest threat was in exposing its crew to radiation.
🧵https://x.com/anno1540/status/1965323121763725357?s=46
Great post 205 👍
Proposal for technology – submarine identification with satellite and long-range robots for submarine warfare
… and a hell of a lot of underwater mining…
SOSUS?
Yes, of course, and Sweden had/has a lot of fun in the Baltic Sea.
What I was thinking was a direct goal shot from a satellite to a robot landing near a submarine and deploying 2-3 torpedoes that are then within the target search radius 😀
Interesting!
China may not have as high GDP as the USA (yet), but on the other hand, they can probably invest even more since the population doesn’t have as much say and moreover, everything is probably considerably cheaper.
The cost…
🇨🇳 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 ❤️ ♣️ ♠️ ♦️
Ukraina har visst kort 🃏 och en roll i USAs spel mot Kina:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/us-take-lead-watching-ukraine-buffer-zone-peace-deal-russia-comes-toge-rcna228810
1/✍️
From Reluctance to Recognition: The U.S. and Ukraine’s “Cards”
Six months ago, the U.S. position on Ukraine could be summed up in one phrase:
“you don’t have the cards.”
Even under the Biden administration, support was hesitant—drawn out by political wrangling, framed as reluctant necessity rather than full-throated backing. Washington wanted Ukraine to hold the line, but rarely gave it what it needed without delay, conditions, or second-guessing.
Now, as NBC reports, the tone has shifted.
By: Benjamin Cook
2/
A proposed $100 billion agreement would give Ukraine access to American weapons in exchange for Washington securing intellectual property rights to defense technologies developed by Ukrainian engineers.
The shift is stark: from lecturing Kyiv on what it lacked, to acknowledging that Ukraine possesses valuable “cards”—military experience, battlefield innovation, and operational credibility—that the United States wants a share of.
3/
Ukraine’s Unmistakable Military Weight
Reluctant support has not stopped Ukraine from becoming one of the most capable fighting forces in the world.
By some measures, Ukraine now fields the third or fourth most powerful army globally.
– It has spent nearly three years grinding down what was once thought to be the world’s second-largest military.
Its air defense network is unmatched in experience, with thousands of successful intercepts of cruise missiles, drones, and, most critically, ballistic missiles—an area where even Western militaries have little real combat testing.
4/
Ukraine’s capacity to adapt on the fly—rapidly integrating donated systems, fusing #NATO and #Soviet equipment, and developing indigenous strike drones and electronic warfare tools—has made it a laboratory of modern warfare.
Far from a client state limping along on U.S. handouts, Ukraine has proven itself as a central innovator in 21st-century combat.
This is what Washington now wants access to:
– Not just another buyer for U.S. weapons, but a partner whose battlefield-forged technologies can be pulled into the American arsenal.
5/
Recognition, But To What End?
The key question is why the U.S. is recognizing Ukraine’s leverage now. Is it about helping Ukraine secure victory—or about something else?
“As the likelihood of conflict with China grows, the U.S. faces hard truths.”
Defending the Philippines, South Korea, and Japan will depend on intercepting missile and drone barrages at scale.
Yet the U.S. military has comparatively little live-fire experience against modern salvos of ballistic and cruise missiles.
Ukraine, by contrast, has done it daily.
Its engineers and operators have learned under fire what works, what fails, and how to adapt faster than an adversary can innovate.
– It seems the closest analog to shooting down a Chinese ballistic missile is shooting down a russian ballistic missile.
The closest thing to a Chinese swarm of hundreds of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles is a russian swarm.
Ukraine has this data. It takes this data and turns it into technical expertise. These, in Trump-Speak, are “Cards.”
From this perspective, the “cards” Ukraine holds may be less about securing #Odesa, #Kharkiv, or #NATO, and more about ensuring that U.S. forces can credibly defend Taipei 🇹🇼 or Manila 🇵🇭 .
The proposed IP-for-weapons deal, then, reads as much like preparation for Asia as it does commitment to Eastern Europe.
6/
Does the “Why” Matter?
For Ukraine, the calculus may be pragmatic. Whether Washington values Ukrainian innovation because of Kyiv’s survival or because of Taiwan’s defense, the material outcome is the same:
• weapons,
• funding, and
• recognition of Ukraine’s role as a top-tier military power.
Still, the “why” does matter when considering long-term commitments.
If U.S. interest in Ukraine is instrumental—simply harvesting battlefield lessons for use elsewhere—support may remain transactional.
The danger is that when the focus shifts fully to #Asia, Ukraine could find itself once again told it
“doesn’t have the cards.”
Yet there is also opportunity.
By proving indispensable not only for Europe’s security but for the Pacific balance of power, Ukraine ensures that its struggle cannot be ignored or written off.
“The more its innovations and experience are recognized as global assets, the harder it becomes for Washington to disengage entirely.”
7/7
Key Take Away
The U.S. has moved from skepticism to recognition:
Ukraine does, in fact, hold valuable cards.
But the evolution says as much about America’s looming confrontation with China as it does about commitment to Kyiv.
Whether this recognition stems from genuine support for Ukraine or from the strategic needs of the Pacific, the effect is the same—Ukraine’s value is undeniable.
The challenge for Kyiv is to make sure that when Washington asks for its cards, it pays the full price—because Ukraine has already proven it belongs at the very center of modern military power…..
Link:
open.substack.com/pub/researchin…
—-
Info:
Benjamin Cook continues to travel to, often lives in, and works in Ukraine, a connection spanning more than 14 years. He holds an MA in International Security and Conflict Studies from Dublin City University and has consulted with journalists and intelligence professionals on AI in drones, U.S. military technology, and open-source intelligence (OSINT) related to the war in Ukraine.
He is co-founder of the nonprofit UAO, working in southern Ukraine. You can find Mr. Cook between Odesa, Ukraine; Charleston, South Carolina; and Tucson, Arizona.
🧵https://x.com/anno1540/status/1965340146925965633?s=46
Yes, the USA needs Ukraine.
Ukraine also has agreements with Taiwan and South Korea now regarding this area
👍
Sent along in the thread again today, lots of interesting reading indeed. 👍👍
The longer Ukraine resists, and makes the Russians retreat, the greater reputation they will gain. After they have won, Ukraine and Poland will become the great powers of Europe.
India is sending a battalion to Zapad, don’t know if it’s in Russia or Belarus.
China probably just hasn’t announced it yet 😀
Poland is closing the border to Belarus.
Admit that you’ve stocked up on chips, dip, and long cans!
I wish, in the Caribbean we don’t have that 😭
You have Rom å Cola.
Well, so India is sending troops to Zapad, that was a bit unexpected, only 65 people though.
Seems to be a whole bunch of “dream countries” participating.
“More than 20 countries, including China, are taking part in this multinational exercise.
Belarus, Bangladesh, Burkina Faso, Congo, Mali, India, Iran, Niger, and Tajikistan are the participants, while Cambodia, China, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nicaragua, North Korea, Pakistan, Serbia, Thailand, the UAE, and Uzbekistan are observers. A 70-member team from India is travelling to Russia for Zapad.”
India to join Russia-led military drills, Pakistan to attend as observer
Off-topic, Middle East
🚨🚨🚨 Israeli Air Force fighter jets attacked Hamas leaders at the official headquarters in Doha, Qatar.
Hope they hit the bullseye (and without hitting civilians)!
Airspace violation in the Gulf of Finland – Russian helicopter September 8, 2025 8:02 PM Third time it happens in a year, according to the Estonian Minister of Foreign Affairs.
https://www.hbl.fi/2025-09-08/luftrumskrankning-pa-finska-viken-rysk-helikopter/
Time to send out a strong warning, if it happens a fourth time, it will be shot down.
Time to send a sharp warning – if it happens a fourth time, the EU will discuss a strongly worded letter of protest – what font and quality of paper
If one is too cowardly to shoot it down, one can still have a system where one has a few billion on hand that one donates through some kind of bidding system. The same can be done for the murder of civilians. The EU can donate 100 million to the Ukrainian arms industry for every Ukrainian civilian killed in a Russian attack.
“What happens when war deniers see Ukraine for themselves?”
https://bsky.app/profile/amplifyukraine.eu/post/3lyfv7issbk23
https://kyivindependent.com/what-happens-when-war-deniers-see-ukraine-for-themselves/
“The death toll has risen to 24 after Russia’s brutal airstrike on civilians in Yarova, Donetsk region. Dozens more were injured. Rescue efforts are still underway.”
https://bsky.app/profile/kyivpost.com/post/3lyfukfcgt22c
I think the Russians want to remove all civilians from Donetsk. They see it as a quarter or half victory. I remember when a pensioner on a bicycle was shot in the occupied Butya. He probably provoked and did not show enough respect. What the Russians can do, they do.
They probably have some twisted idea about killing for the sake of killing. Easy to attack a small village or town that doesn’t have much air defense. Mentally stuck in the Middle Ages.
Trump Approval Rating
Things are going well for Trump, he gained 0.1 points this time, which was enough to climb a whole percentage point to -13%.
Mer om relationen till Kina, och en del om Ukraina, i denna intervju med Storbritanniens ambassadör i Washington. Breithart.
Breitbart News Washington Bureau Chief Matthew Boyle interviews British Ambassador to the United States Lord Peter Mandelson on Thursday, August 4, 2025, at the British Embassy in Washington, DC. (British Embassy Washington).
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2025/09/07/exclusive-british-ambassador-to-u-s-lord-peter-mandelson-the-king-is-going-to-roll-out-the-red-carpet-for-president-trump-in-state-visit/
”[W]e are in a race, we are in a competition with China, and it’s better that we stay ahead rather than have China dominate this century in those important critical technologies—which were they to do so, would have a profound effect on our livelihoods and our safety.”
”[Trump and Starmer] like each other and talk to each other in a respectful and interested way,” Mandelson said. “Secondly, on the fundamentals, they agree, whether it be at home or internationally. Thirdly, they both are committed to sustaining that unique, special relationship that we have between our two countries. I would like to see them deepen their relationship. I’d like to see them do more together. The Prime Minister, our prime minister, is doing a lot, for example, to bring the European countries together and getting them pointing in the right direction for example over defense spending and Ukraine. [..]We make sure that we show the rest of the world that the West is coming together, that we do have common interests, that we are going to stand up for those interests and for our values, and we’re not simply going to be rolled over by China, Russia, or any of these other people who want to push us around.”
”A couple weeks ago, after Trump’s historic summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, he hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and a bevy of European leaders including Starmer, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and others at the White House. Starmer was instrumental in helping make this happen and Mandelson noted that the presence of Merz at this table of leaders was also extremely important for Western Civilization.
“Now coming, I think Merz in Germany is playing an important role,” Mandelson said. “I say this partly because Britain and Germany seem to see eye to eye on a lot—and Merz and Starmer have struck up a good relationship—but I think it’s very important for the European nations, very important for the EU, to have a bit of German common sense rising to the surface in their deliberations.””
”He doesn’t want to plunge the world into the chaos that would flow if America went head to head with China, but he is right in demanding a rebalancing. He is right in demanding a different economic approach by China that no longer expects us to pay the price—and it’s a big price in trade—for their economic development. I think he is right to draw attention to the fact that on the back of their growing economy, they’re expanding their military, their army, their navy in dramatic terms. We saw all that displayed this week on the streets of Beijing, but also that China is getting together with a lot of bad actors. Prominent on display is Russia, Putin, who’s invaded Ukraine. Iran, exporting terror. North Korea and their missile program, threatening the entire Asia Pacific. Now I think the President is right to call out these people, and one of the things that Britain and America have in common is that we both believe in strong defense and national security. We believe that you achieve peace by having effective deterrence towards these bad actors. We also agree, incidentally, that Europe needs to step up and spend more on its own defense. But I think that when it comes to China, we’ve got to do these two things: Call out their trade practices and secondly make sure that they do not come to dominate the world in the advanced critical technologies that are now being developed like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, bioscience. You know, if China succeeds in getting ahead of us in these critical technologies and is able to dominate the world technologically, then that’s going to affect every facet of our lives. We’ve got to come together, collaborate more and make sure that that doesn’t happen. As two science-rich nations, the U.S. and the U.K., I want us to be doing much more to make sure that China does not win the technology race.””
Today you are really eager to dig up interesting long reads! ⭐👍
Yes, nice 205 👍
🫡
With pleasure!
Off-Topic, Sweden, political mudslinging
The aftermath of Bohlin being followed is almost ridiculous.
First, Kristersson comes and tries to exploit it by insinuating that it is the Left Party and the Social Democrats who are indirectly to blame for not taking responsibility for their followers.
Then Magda comes and does the exact same thing by saying that it is unworthy of Kristersson and just an attempt to score cheap political points.
Perhaps instead they should sit down together and think about how to address the problems instead? Or is that maybe too much to ask for?
After all, they are just the leaders of two of our largest parties…
“Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (M) demands that the Social Democrats and the Left Party clearly distance themselves from the Palestinian movement after yesterday’s incident where the minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin was followed.
– I think they must consider taking responsibility for their followers. There is a great tolerance on the left for activists’ behavior, he tells SVT News on his way to the opening of the parliament.
Kristersson says that it is ”obvious” that the Social Democrats and the Left Party have ”a kind of romanticism for terrorism”.
Both the Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson and the Left Party leader Nooshi Dadgostar have condemned the activists who followed Bohlin.”
https://omni.se/kristersson-s-och-v-maste-ta-ansvar-for-sin-svans/a/almja4
“Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson is very critical of Ulf Kristersson urging the Social Democrats and the Left Party to ”take responsibility for their followers” after the minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin (M) was followed by screaming Palestinian activists.
– It feels a bit desperate coming from a government trying to score cheap political points on something very serious […] It may not be quite dignified for a prime minister, she tells SVT News.”
https://omni.se/andersson-desperat-inte-vardigt-en-statsminister/a/gwbz3J
Will it become illegal to criticize politicians as a result of this?
It’s only the SD tail that is allowed to be criticized! Remember that SE will collapse if S doesn’t govern, it’s undemocratic that they are not allowed to govern!
When all politicians have become desperate with jealousy and unstatesmanlike, hopefully the pendulum will swing and a well-balanced and pleasant politician who is polite to their opponents will win voters. That is my earnest hope, but I’m not holding my breath.
🇩🇪
Germany transfers two Patriot systems to Ukraine: Pistorius revealed details
According to German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, half of the cost of this weaponry was covered by Norway.
“In addition to the constant supply of weapon systems and ammunition, Germany is currently transferring 2 complete Patriot systems to Ukraine. The first launchers have already been delivered to Ukraine,” Pistorius said.
🇺🇦 https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/politics-news/nimechchina-peredae-ukraini-dvi-sistemi-patriot-pistorius-rozkriv-detali.htm
🇬🇧 https://x.com/anno1540/status/1965429471093178517?s=46
Good! 👍
Off-Topic, the attack in Qatar
I’ve been saying it all along, Israel is not interested in any peace, and neither is HAMAS unless they know they can get foolproof guarantees. We’ll see how it goes now, Trump promised security guarantees for HAMAS the other day and threatened HAMAS that this was their last chance.
If the attack went well, maybe there aren’t so many HAMAS leaders left, then possibly those who survived might want to consider an offer of ceasefire, but Israel will probably refuse regardless.
“Israel’s attack on the Hamas negotiating delegation in Qatar is a clear escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, according to TV4 News Middle East correspondent Terese Christiansson.
– It has been known that the Hamas leadership is located in, among other places, Qatar, but bombing there means that more countries are being dragged in, she tells her own channel.
Samir Abu Eid at SVT News describes the attack as dramatic and remarkable. He emphasizes that Qatar, along with Egypt and the USA, has been mediating in the talks for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
– These talks will probably now be completely halted and collapse, he says.”
https://omni.se/analys-mojligheterna-till-avtal-kastas-i-soptunnan/a/JbjBOj
—
Qatar is not particularly amused, but maybe they themselves should ensure to kick out HAMAS and not allow their presence?
“Qatar strongly reacts to the Israeli military’s attack on the capital Doha, reports Reuters. The government condemns Israel’s “cowardly attack” and accuses the country of violating international law.
Foreign Minister Majed al-Ansari writes on X that Israel targeted the attack on residential buildings where several members of Hamas’ political wing were located.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres also condemns the attack, reports Reuters. Israel has violated Qatar’s territorial integrity, he states. The Secretary-General also highlights that Qatar has played an important role in the efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza.”
https://omni.se/qatar-fordomer-israeliska-attacken-i-doha/a/vgaw5X
It’s a war, and just as we don’t scream over fallen Israeli soldiers or Hamas terrorists, isn’t it difficult to get upset about this really?
The large number of civilian Palestinians is a bit excessive though, but that’s what we usually write.
Why do people believe that a war will end without either party achieving its war goals or being forced to their knees? As long as Hamas exists and Israel is not wiped out, will the war continue? And likewise, will the war in Ukraine continue until Ukraine is dominated by Russia or until Russia has collapsed and ceased to pose a threat to Ukraine. Otherwise, one of the parties will have reason to continue.
Finally, Hungary seems to realize that it’s time to find other suppliers.
“Hungary signed a 10-year gas supply agreement with Shell Plc, Bloomberg reports. According to the news agency: 🔹 this is one of the first steps to diversify away from Russian flows as a European Union deadline to phase out those imports nears;”
https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3lyfybs4gk22t
It was just dripping from the tap so they probably had no choice 🤣🤣🤣✊
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lyfyl4k7cs2e
Are there any limitations or are there no limitations at all?
Johan no 1 wonders in today’s thread why the USA does not have any bases in Australia. I wonder the same. After Pearl Harbor, Australia was also under threat from Japan. Australia had barely anything to defend itself with and Japan began attacking, among other places, Darwin by air. The USA, which had just entered the war, could send fighter planes and war materials. But they had no ships available. The Gothenburg shipping company Transatlantic had a route between the USA/Canada’s west coast and Australia. 5 ships were used in this traffic and the request came from the USA and GB if the shipping company could take care of these transports. The head of Trans went on to Per Albin and Eric Boheman. What was said is not known, but Transatlantic took on the task for the rest of the war. The return cargoes loaded the ships with cotton to the USA/GB.
After the war, Trans and the crews of the ships received much praise, especially from Australia and the USA. Few in Sweden are aware of this. I believe it was hushed up. But the USA called the route “The lifeline to Australia”. The Trans archive has the whole story. A summary can be found in the magazine Båtologen issue 3,4 2021.
Some of the crews did not return home to their families until after 7 years. I have met some of them, but they did not talk much about it.
Just a side note, that’s why I, just like Johan, wonder why the USA does not have bases in Australia. One should have learned.
This makes life fun – small dives into interesting information you had no idea existed 😀👍
Oh, Australia has had a strained relationship with China for at least a decade, right?
GHT wrote about it just after the war, maybe some newspaper too. Trans deployed their fastest ships (16 knots) to keep the Japanese submarines at bay. Not a scratch on any of the boats throughout the entire war. It can be added that the ships carried 12 passengers. It was the only connection for Australians to reach the USA.
Upon arrival in Sydney, which was the first port, all ships in the harbor signaled to the ship as a nice gesture. But officially, Sweden has not commented on this. We have very good relations with Japan. Perhaps it is because Sweden has remained silent.
Interesting! 👍
Good tension in the thread 👍👍
I agree. Would have commented on your post this morning much more. It was very good and I have a special relationship with China. It will have to be another time. But thank you for your texts.
Anders Puck Nielsen’s latest was good.
It’s partly about us finally starting to talk about security guarantees for Ukraine instead of territorial concessions, but also about Ukraine now having Europe’s strongest defense and Europe being as dependent on Ukraine as they are on us when it comes to our defense against Russia.
https://youtu.be/RxapAZRYJ6I?si=55TRPCah0mEv9zj7
“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky once again urges allies to quickly help the country defend itself against Russia, reports Reuters. In a post on Telegram, he writes about the latest Russian attack on Donetsk, which killed at least 24 people. “Russia continues to kill, and it is terrible that the global response is still not strong enough,” he writes. The President also writes that there will be no progress either diplomatically or militarily unless the Western world imposes strong sanctions on Russia.”
https://omni.se/a/QMGj3x
“NATO must take the opportunity to strengthen its northern flank while Russia is occupied with fighting in Ukraine. That’s according to Sweden’s Minister of Defense Pål Jonson (M) in an interview with The Telegraph. He warns that Russia may be ready to invade the Nordic-Baltic region within two to five years. – They are significantly increasing their defense production and have repeatedly shown that they are willing to take significant political and military risks. …”
https://omni.se/a/Pp7j06
Here is a late comment on the blog, a reflection on “How do we bring down China, or how does the US bring down China?… I imagine this after a Russian crash loss in Ukraine when the whole play collapses.”
The following describes how Europe refocuses and relocates militarily towards Asia.
Here is a reason why China does not want to see a quick end to the war in Ukraine. As long as Europe is kept in check by the threat from Russia, we are harmless in Asia and China can focus on the USA.
I believe we are relatively harmless going forward, but it is also the fact that the USA will remain divided as long as they also have to focus on Ukraine.
Are you bringing Ukraine?