Now several things happened at once, one of which was that the USA redirected oil tankers bound for Europe in a situation of scarcity.
Since Trump had already threatened to cut off LNG if we didn’t sign the trade agreement with the USA, and Zelensky has now come out and announced that everyone is trying to get him to stop bombing Russian oil infrastructure, it is essentially confirmed that the USA is blackmailing us with oil as a weapon.
The USA and Ukraine are on a collision course, and Zelensky is taking a tough stance – probably the USA is more furious with Ukraine than they dare to show.
UA has just droned some “petrochemical” plant that basically blew up and caused mass casualties. The USA will soon start screaming about Ukrainian war crimes.
Ukraine is escalating now – they will come up with something on May 9th, one day there will be flamingos in Frunzenskaya and the Kremlin will be on fire.
On the battlefield, Ukraine is soon gaining the initiative and RU will retreat.
Russia has everything to lose and the citizens are completely furious because their wifi is down. Castration and torture-murdered five-year-olds are not a big problem for them to accept, but when there are internet disruptions, it’s revolution immediately.
The prevailing opinion is that Russia is up to something and the shutdown of the internet is related to it. You have also heard how the USA has now twice said, “You have only yourselves to blame when you are at war with Russia,” in a short period.
6:51 PM · Mar 30, 2026 · 1.04M Views
1.94K Replies · 10.8K Reposts · 49.1K Likes
I’m starting to run out of explanations for the USA’s actions, which I have long described as “the USA is just like the bank, not our friend” and “the USA does what’s best for them.”
Seeing a more and more aggressive USA beginning to counter Ukraine, and trying to force Europe to help the USA in their pursuit of a better world, the better Ukraine does is clear but not really new. Regarding the Ukraine war, that’s how I’ve perceived the situation since 2022 and I yelled so much about it on the other blog that my “Biden hatred” was not appreciated.
So for me, the USA is following the same line and being consistent, but the new thing is that Ukraine doesn’t care and is telling the whole world what the USA and Trump are up to.
And that’s really what the USA and Trump are mad about, that they can’t deal in human blood anymore for quick profits without anyone daring to say anything.
I am one of those who believe that Russia is escalating towards Europe and I believe that Ukraine will come out on top in 2026 even if Russia doesn’t understand this yet.
In Belarus, Lukashenko has just addressed the military to prepare for war.
(ignore the link that I cannot vouch for, but they have reported the speech okay)
Russia is about to start its own offensive, which they believe will go as it has since the fall of 2023 – slowly forward.
The command structure and the political leadership are too far away to have seen the early warning signs we see and discuss.
The Russian offensive is increasing and they have the same talking points about Sloviansk/Kramatorsk and other areas – the Russian troop commanders have received their orders, reconnaissance and positioning battles are already underway.
Since the ground’s bearing capacity will soon be acceptable, it is highly likely that it will increase, but we can safely assume that it will be more of a massacre and manhunt than a Russian offensive this year, and that it will last too long as the Russian system is sluggish.
At some point, Ukraine will snatch the baton and roll out an excellent counteroffensive that will turn into a carpet of offensive operations with strategic goals.
The question that needs to be asked is – how far is the USA willing to go?
I no longer consider Crimea unlikely, and that the USA could intervene to “protect the peninsula since neither side has managed to control it since 2014.”
The USA is almost forcing Hungary to choose Orban, they have just lifted sanctions on Belarus and are well on their way to lifting all sanctions on Russia.
The USA is also constantly trying to talk Ukraine into peace, but Zelensky keeps saying no in increasingly provocative terms to the USA.
Europe has already started to falter, we know that because we have asked Ukraine to pause the fighting of RU oil infrastructure – importing all oil makes us too vulnerable, plain and simple.
I know I keep harping on about the Iraqi Shia militias, but you really must understand that convoys of hundreds of vehicles have snaked from Iraq to Tehran where the USA/Israel have been able to track them in real-time but not engage them.
This is extremely important because it has seemed like at least Israel was aiming for a fresh start with Pasha in Iran, but if thousands of militias are allowed in, it doesn’t exactly make it easier for a popular uprising.
So it matters and is an important puzzle piece, just as tricking Iran into starting to knock out oil installations across MENA was important.
Are Russia and China satisfied with the Iran war – not in the least, but a good compromise would be if the IRGC or the mullah regime could continue in one way or another. Could it be that discussions are also ongoing between them and the USA?
We know that Europe is not invited to any discussions because our leaders’ statements are newly awake and furious.
Regarding Ukraine, it is undeniable that the USA is playing both sides with Russia and trying to pressure Europe to give in.
If in Iran they end up just taking a toll for the oil through Hormuz, a % of Iran’s sales, and then let the IRGC keep power, they are not far behind in MENA either.
But it seems that US interests have collided completely with Israel’s security interests, I will come back to that later.
Trump is good because he talks too much when he gets angry, so we get a lot of information that way. Biden was better at keeping quiet, you have to give him that.
I don’t know if I expected this, but now we have to keep an eye on Russia, China, AND the USA when it comes to global escalation, and the only thing they seem to agree on is that Europe should preferably be weak, divided, and scared.
The USA has crossed many red lines, but since we live in the real world with consequences, there is only so much one can do as they line up missile launchers to threaten with.
There are very good reasons to ask how we could become dependent on 100% imports for much of what we now must have – there has been no shortage of warnings, to be honest.
Since 2007, everyone also knew that Russia intended to expand its empire because Putin gave a speech where he clearly stated it.
Now we are where we are, and I maintain that if Ukraine is not allowed to deliver its deadly blows against Russia by 2026, we are heading towards an escalation for Europe as well.
It is becoming increasingly clear to me that the USA absolutely wants a weak and divided Europe with a Russian threat on the side so that we willingly buy security at five times the price from them.
We have speculated about this for a couple of years, but we are now actually at the point where it is starting to look like Yalta 1945 again, where Roosevelt had to throw Churchill under the bus, sacrifice the Poles, and scratch Stalin’s back so that the USA could have its best years ever until 1989. But apparently, it was worth it because the USA has really made an effort to get back to this point. The Pentagon’s pizza index has hit the roof.
If we can lock in this assumption and then assume that Ukraine will continue to push until Russia gets its 1917 again – can we then guess that the USA will become increasingly hostile towards Europe and Ukraine the worse things go for Russia?
I don’t know, but this is something we must consider now, how far is the USA willing to go to protect Russia?
Israel is something too few are discussing right now, but they have not exactly made friends in the MENA region in recent months. Things like this seem okay until they are not anymore, and Israel was already at a disadvantage after their aggressive actions in Gaza. Egypt has built up some capabilities in Sinai, for example.
Israel also has limitations in its Iron Dome capability, and more and more Iranian rockets are hitting high-value targets in the country.
And not least the FPV drone weapon, which has actually caused significant losses to Israeli ground troops on several occasions because the opposing team has had Iran and Russia building up and training this new capability for them.
Now, to a point I made on johanno1.se, I will paste it in its entirety below –
—
The USA has never mentioned regime change, but Israel has been very clear both in words and actions.
In the first weeks, Israel worked hard against a popular uprising, from chasing Bashij patrols hiding under bridges with drones. The first IRGC members fled to Afghanistan and Pakistan, and do you remember the fire festival two weeks ago when citizens were out on the streets?
Israel has also worked hard to win over the army to the people’s side and equally hard to scare the IRGC and Bashij into desertion with threats through all channels available to them.
They have disrupted TV broadcasts several times, called for preparation for popular uprisings, but also said that citizens should lie low during the intense combat phase.
Pasha activated his immortal guard (the name…) and the first patrols were shot on the streets.
Pasha activated his transitional government in exile.
The above is factual and does not need to be questioned or discussed.
Israel now has total air superiority, and their job has been the leaders, IRGC, and Bashij, as I understand it.
The USA has provided SEAD and then the bombing of military infrastructure, and Israel has taken a bit more risks with direct overflights, as we saw in the movie.
Step two – the people rise in cities in the provinces and take over the city, when the IRGC sends a battalion there, Israel is there and shoots it away. This is how the USA has worked with the Kurds in Syria, and now the AR-10 Warthog and Apache have been brought to the area for JUST THAT TYPE OF MISSION. You don’t send your top ground attack platforms halfway around the world without a plan, right?
Fast forward a bit, and suddenly there are videos from Iraq showing thousands of Shia militias preparing to go to Iran, and then videos of them patrolling the streets in Tehran.
It is 900km between Baghdad – Tehran, and the USA also has a military presence in Iraq, right? They have known about these militias and could have fought them for at least 2-3 days, and the USA/Israel have an excellent kill-chain.
Somewhere around there, we have a turning point, and I think it has become significantly quieter about how to counter the popular uprising.
-Has Israel been overrun?
-Is it clear that the USA did a quick smash-and-grab and will get a share of everything?
-Will the USA support Israel in the upcoming chaos?
There is a HUGE risk of political chaos in Israel after this because after the Gaza operation, broad groups are not entirely satisfied to begin with, and if the Iran war is perceived as a failure, someone will have to pay the political price for it – Netanyahu?
Yes, I am a bit early with my concerns because the window is still open for Israel’s regime change, but the longer time goes by, the more uncertain it becomes.
Try to explain to me how Israel can risk their pilots’ lives to fight down to individual Bashij patrols, only to allow an equal number of Iraqi militias through in the next moment, making it a zero-sum game.
-The only conclusion that can be drawn here IF there is no attempt at a popular uprising is that the USA ran over Israel?
Let’s hope that Israel will release all the compromising material they have on everyone in the USA as revenge.
Don’t misunderstand 2.
The USA is probably quite satisfied; they seem to have scared the IRGC into getting a good deal out of this – surely there will be protection money in the end and many other perks.
The leaders of Iran have seen what happens if they try to be obstinate, so now they will do the next best thing and pay not to be killed.
Of course, they will spin it as a great victory and so on, but Trump can never keep quiet, so we know something like that is in the works.
The dictator can definitely stay as long as he pays his taxes to the USA.
The USA has achieved a lot –
-Pushback against China.
-Intimidation in the MENA region.
-More compliant Europe.
-Strengthening the status of the petrodollar.
There is really only one cloud on Trump’s orange sky – Ukraine.
They have the audacity to start negotiating with MENA countries that then dare to stand up to the USA – absolutely not part of the plan.
Ukraine is performing so well on the battlefield that Europe is starting to toughen up against the USA – also not according to plan.
Trump and the USA have really been trying to defeat the stubborn Ukrainians throughout 2025, but they simply refuse to give up.
—
The above was what I wrote on johanno1.se, back to today’s post.
In Pearson’s book, an incoming robot from Iran carried a contagious disease that spread over Israel in a week, leaving the entire defense force incapacitated when the war started – after COVID, this is not as ridiculous, is it? And it doesn’t even require a robot?
Iran could obtain a bacterial culture from any friendly country, China, or Russia, and through one person spread it in Israel without any problems. “It will spread to Iran,” someone will scream, and the response will be that the two-week window purchased in Pearson’s book was enough to overrun Israel.
But yes, Israel managed to send their nuclear weapons towards Baghdad and Tehran, if I remember correctly the last thing they did – after all, the soldiers with the firing button are isolated in bunkers for a reason, right.
Then we have nuclear weapons, and now it seems like the IRGC chooses life, but they probably feel that Israel (and the USA…) has done everything they can to kill them, so in their world, they will probably try to retaliate in every possible way in the future – that’s what I would do. The only way to get rid of the Iranian threat is if the citizens rise up and start a revolution.
With all that said – I believe that the security risk for Israel after this war, IF the IRGC remains in power, will be sky-high, and I do NOT think Israel wanted it that way, but maybe they have no choice?
Anyway – today we leave the Dominican Republic for a well-deserved vacation for three weeks, and there will be a bit of a low season with writing. Those of you who subscribe are encouraged not to unsubscribe because we will come back with a bang in a few weeks, maybe even with a post in the middle because too much is happening.
MXT will continue on johanno1.se with daily posts, and there are around a hundred excellent comments in the thread below discussing what has happened during the day, so don’t miss out on joining there.
There is quite a lot happening right now, but there will be more in our region probably if Ukraine doesn’t get there first – exciting months ahead of us, therefore.
It is also clear that Ukraine completely ignores the USA, so goals and operations they have never been allowed to do before are now on the table again, you know which ones.
Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!
https://www.dn.se/direkt/mellanostern/2026-04-03/iran-skjutit-ner-amerikanskt-stridsflygplan/
The Iranians claim to have shot down an F35 over the country.
They also seem to have successfully attacked a major refinery. Doesn’t seem like they are ready for any peace negotiations.
“Iran claims to have shot down a US F-35 fighter jet over the country’s central parts, Reuters reports. If true, it would be the second F-35 shot down by Iran.
During the night, a large refinery in Kuwait was also hit in an Iranian drone attack, AFP reports citing state media. The facility is said to have caught fire but no injuries have been reported.
The refinery, one of the largest in the Middle East, has been targeted before during the war, TT reports.”
https://omni.se/iran-har-skjutit-ner-amerikanskt-plan/a/rrr6Jl
—
There also seems to be significant disagreement about the actual extent of losses suffered by Iran. Unfortunately, I find it impossible to assess the truthfulness regarding both Trump’s and the White House’s statements and those who oppose them. Both sides are driven by political motives.
“About half of Iran’s launch ramps are still intact after five weeks of fighting, and the country still has thousands of attack drones. This is according to three sources familiar with US intelligence work speaking to CNN.
This information contradicts the messages from the White House and the Pentagon, which have repeatedly claimed that Iran’s ability to defend itself has been almost completely eliminated and that the war is essentially already won.
In a speech on Wednesday, Donald Trump said they would attack Iran “very hard” in the next two to three weeks to “finish the job.”
However, this timeline is dismissed by CNN’s sources.
“We can continue to run over them, I have no doubt about that, but you are completely crazy if you think this can be finished in two weeks.”
White House spokesperson Anna Kelly tells CNN that the channel’s information is incorrect and comes from “anonymous sources desperate to attack President Trump and discredit the incredible work of the American military.”
https://omni.se/underattelsekallor-sagar-vita-husets-bild-av-kriget-helt-galen/a/6qqGKe
UZ may need a wild card in the deck?
Caught?
The first F35, is it the one with the terribly poorly made AI shootdown? Because if they claim it as number one, I strongly doubt even number two.
I haven’t seen those pictures, but it has been acknowledged that an F35 was damaged, and probably by Iran, so it was forced to make an emergency landing. It may not be directly a shooting down, but from Iran’s side, they probably claim that.
https://bsky.app/profile/malcontentnews.bsky.social/post/3mil2f3m7zk22
Russian losses in Ukraine 2026-04-03
1230 KWIA
3 Tanks
6 AFVs
65 Artillery systems
1236 UAVs
177 Vehicles & fuel tanks
2 Special equipment
SLAVA UKRAINI
N Slobozhansky-Kursk 3
S Slobozhansky 5
Kupyansk 7↘️
Lyman 8
Slovyansk 5
Kramatorsk 0
Kostjantynivka 19💥
Pokrovsk 58💥💥💥↗️
Oleksandrivskij 21💥↗️
Huliaipole 40💥💥↗️
Orikhivsk 13💥↗️
Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 2
Sum sectors 181↗️
Unlocalized 49↗️
Total 230↗️
👍
N Slobozhansky-Kursk 3
S Slobozhansky 5
Kupyansk 7↘️
Lyman 8
Slovyansk 5
Kramatorsk 0
Kostjantynivka 19💥
Pokrovsk 58💥💥💥↗️
Oleksandrivskij 21💥↗️
Huliaipole 40💥💥↗️
Orikhivsk 13💥↗️
Prydniprovskij/Dnipro 2
Sum sectors 181↗️
Unlocalized 49↗️
Total 230↗️
Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
Heroyam Slava!
Thank you for the post Johan no 1 and have a nice vacation.
George HW Bush is now on his way from Norfolk to the Middle East to replace Gerald R Ford. I assume they have installed a sprinkler system in the laundry room and recruited some plumbers on board. Then I wonder if they haven’t replaced the F35 with the F18…
Have a nice vacation Johan and thanks for today’s yellow wall!
I don’t keep track of the details of the war in Iran so it’s interesting information, for example regarding the assistance from Iraq.
As usual, I don’t entirely agree with you, for instance, about the statement that the USA never mentioned regime change. Trump mentioned it several times at the beginning of the war and even after it started. Admittedly, not stated as a goal, but still implied (probably to make the war seem like it was about liberating the people). Now, of course, he has stopped talking about it altogether and denies it. It’s just a minor detail and unimportant. But if you write: “Above are facts and do not need to be questioned or discussed.” so… 😄
I find it difficult to speculate on Iran and all the developments and possible outcomes. We know too little, and the truthfulness of what is communicated from both sides, but perhaps mainly from the USA, is difficult to assess, and it also fluctuates. I think it’s because they were quite unprepared and entered a war they thought could be won through a brutal beginning where they would take out the leadership. Then it didn’t go at all as planned, and the longer the war goes on, the harder it is to figure out how to solve it without appearing as a loser. I guess that’s also why Israel and the USA are not quite on the same page now. Israel, of course, wants to see a completely defeated Iran, but they probably can’t achieve that on their own. On the other hand, the USA probably doesn’t dare to engage in a major ground invasion and is trying to find a way to withdraw. Israel is also busy with Lebanon where they have expanded their security zone for the second time. I find it hard to imagine that they can carry out a major ground offensive against Iran on their own.
Regardless, it’s very difficult to assess where things are heading, and I think it’s because the war didn’t go as planned at all, and therefore they are forced to improvise, which is why they also do not communicate any clear goals for the war. The USA has no idea what goals they might achieve, but when the war is over, we can be pretty sure that they will declare victory and claim that they have achieved exactly what they intended.
Regarding Ukraine, the argument that the USA has had the same plan since the war started regardless of who is president doesn’t hold. Trump opposed Ukraine all along long before he became president, and just as many of us understood, he would withdraw support when he took power.
If there are others secretly controlling the USA with the goals you outline. How come they were willing to help Ukraine with quite extensive weapons deliveries right up until Trump became president? Especially since it has been Russia that has been gaining ground all along (albeit very slowly). So, did they suddenly come to the conclusion that it’s best for Ukraine to lose? Or is it best for there to be peace? If the goal is for Russia to pose a threat to Europe and at the same time drain our economy, etc., then a continued war would rather be the smartest solution. Now they are completely undermining Ukraine. And did they come up with this turnaround by chance just as Trump took over?
They seem to continue to help with intelligence (it doesn’t cost them anything) and small-scale arms deliveries if someone else pays.
The explanation is that Biden is afraid of nuclear weapons and a third world war. He did what he could to prevent Ukraine from losing, but at the same time, he was terrified that they would go too far (cross the border, or bomb deep targets) and thus risk provoking Russia to do something drastic. Russia has been working (and is working) hard to make it appear as if it is a possibility, and then we only see their media, not how their intelligence services work. There is probably “leaked” and planted information to reinforce it even to Western intelligence services.
Trump, on the other hand, has always been against Ukraine and Zelenskyy, as I said, and it showed immediately when he came to power. Besides, he wants to make money, and he believes that Putin can help him with that.
So, he is pursuing his own line towards Ukraine. It’s not some Deep State USA behind it. Then how far Trump’s plans go is, of course, harder to know. He is upset with Europe, but he probably wasn’t from the beginning. Therefore, I don’t think he had any plan for Russia to continue to pose a threat to Europe. He just wanted to end the war, preferably with Russia as the winner to be in good standing with Putin and get his deals. Now, however, your theories might actually be something he is considering.
He probably wants to go against Europe now that we are not doing as he says. The chance that he wants to see a continued war but then between Europe and Russia has increased.
Still, I am skeptical. I believe Trump’s actions in Ukraine are, as I said, a collaboration with Putin. Putin has also long felt the need to end as a winner and has probably promised Trump good deals (and surely hidden money) if he can arrange it. That’s why Trump acts as he does with increased pressure on Ukraine.
I don’t think Russia has any interest in continuing a full-scale war against Europe. Sure, they would have some initial success, but when they can’t defeat Ukraine even though Ukraine hasn’t received on-site support, how on earth would they manage to expand the war?
It doesn’t seem logical that the USA would act as they do because they want Russia to continue fighting against us. The USA wants an end and at the same time save face for Russia (and put Zelenskyy in his place).
I am inclined to agree with you.
Biden was Pro Ukraine but unfortunately not strong/independent enough and was held back by his administration. Probably for the reasons you describe above.
That Krasnov has ALWAYS been Pro Kremlin and against Ukraine has been obvious for a long time.
I still have difficulty reconciling with the fact that he has managed to take over the GOP.
It is a completely different party today.
I agree with both MTX and Pehr.
And thanks for both Johan’s and MTX’s interesting analyses, even though they differ a bit.
Well written by both Johan and MXT, and I hope Johan has a nice vacation far away from any war zone.
I probably share the same opinion as MXT regarding Biden. He was simply too influenced by the politics during the Cold War and the fear of nuclear weapons that prevailed then. The USA and Russia were supposed to maintain a certain balance and avoid direct confrontation.
I think Trump’s relationship with Russia has to do with a couple of things, even though I might now be putting too much trust in Trump’s ability for long-term thinking.
His personal relationship with Putin, he trusts him more than his intelligence service, that was clear. The possibility to make a profit from the spoils of war if Russia takes Donbass and Crimea. The possibility to have Russia on his side against China. Help from Russia to divide the EU, in order to pressure the individual European countries into a better deal.
Johan wrote that it seems like Israel has been thrown under the bus. I can probably agree with that. Trump is completely open about being willing to make a deal with the mullahs, if he can only earn money from it, and pressure China and Europe. He also wants to withdraw from the war as soon as possible, so he can move on with Cuba. That he lies hardly comes as a surprise: INFORMATION: American giant lie exposed
https://omni.se/a/xrrB0B
French President Emmanuel Macron puts his foot down and criticizes Donald Trump’s various and sometimes contradictory statements about the Iran war, writes The Guardian.
– There is too much talk, and it is all over the place, he says about the American president’s strategy.
Lately, Trump has repeatedly attacked allies and demanded more help in the Middle East. Macron accuses the president of being unserious and finds it strange that he speaks out every day.
– If you want to be serious, you can’t go around every day saying the opposite of what you said yesterday.
Earlier this week, Trump mocked the French president during a private lunch. Trump imitated a French dialect and said, among other things, that Macron’s wife “treats him very badly,” writes AFP.
When Macron was asked about the mockery, he chose not to comment.
It will be interesting to see how the relationships between the USA and Europe will develop, or perhaps rather deteriorate, in the coming months.
Yes, scary but interesting.
And good of Macron to publicly say what everyone thinks.
Yes, it’s interesting, but it can be challenging for those who depend on LNG for electricity production.
Macron is starting to have enough. It’s probably good, so that everyone seriously begins to realize that Johan is right when he writes that the USA is not our friend. Even though I probably want to go into more detail and say that Trump is not our friend.
“French President Emmanuel Macron is drawing a line and criticizing Donald Trump’s various and sometimes contradictory statements about the Iran war, writes The Guardian.
– There is too much talk, and it’s all over the place, he says about the American president’s strategy.
Recently, Trump has attacked allies several times and demanded more help in the Middle East. Macron accuses the president of being unserious and finds it strange that he speaks out every day.
– If you want to be serious, you can’t go around every day saying the opposite of what you said yesterday.
Earlier this week, Trump mocked the French president during a private lunch. Trump imitated a French accent and said, among other things, that Macron’s wife “treats him very badly,” writes AFP.
When Macron was asked about the mockery, he chose not to comment.”
https://omni.se/macron-trott-pa-trump-det-pratas-for-mycket/a/xrrB0B
—
The other day, Trump made a statement about Springsteen. Of course, it doesn’t have any decisive significance if he disses one of the USA’s greatest artists, but one can hardly think that this is how a president should act? Actively trying to sabotage someone’s career because they criticize him as president? What will be the next step? To ban the sale of his records?
“Donald Trump is now urging his supporters to stop listening to Bruce Springsteen. He writes this in a post on his own platform Truth Social, several media outlets report.
The post comes two days after Springsteen had the premiere of his tour and criticized Trump’s policies.
The American president also chooses to launch personal attacks and describes Springsteen as “bad,” “very boring,” and suggests that the artist looks like a “dried prune that has endured a bad performance by a bad plastic surgeon.””
https://omni.se/attackerar-springsteen-trakig-ett-katrinplommon/a/bOOPmB
Two on that one about Macron! Pehr was first!
What if, for example, Obama had made such a statement, he would have been impeached.
Now we are in the boiling pot and “buying” everything the idiot says and does.
It’s probably a bit strange how the rest of the world puts up with it. It’s like with bullies in middle school. Normal people try to avoid them, and not provoke more craziness as long as possible.
Unfortunately, this bully has a lot of military and economic power, and is quick to threaten with it when contradicted. He is happy to set the world on fire if he feels that the world is not doing as he says, or if he feels that someone is trying to reprimand him.
He behaves like a self-righteous 16th-century king. I can imagine it was about the same at the court of Henry the 8th.
I had the privilege of visiting his court, and it was to say the least a tense and strained atmosphere there. Fear was constantly present of saying or doing something wrong, or stumbling upon one of the severed heads rolling around.
😄
Yes, it will take time before we can “free” ourselves, but I suspect that things are starting to move.
Therefore a bit refreshing to hear Macron say it straight. At the same time, we are on the edge of our seats so I think there are probably many other leaders who express it more diplomatically but then realize that one must consider how to manage without the USA.
That’s why I wrote earlier in another comment to Johan that this could turn out to be negative for the USA first in several years.
Trump rubs it in, apparently reads the blog:
Macron has problems with his wife, he is busy.
“Russian missiles strike apartment buildings in Kharkiv, at least 1 person injured”
En humanitär katastrof utvecklas i det av Ryssland ockuperade Oleshky, Kherson-regionen. Ett ryskt krigsbrott i stor skala. Dessa stackars människor… Ryssland håller effektivt staden under belägring: utan bränsle, el, medicin och mat.
https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3mil5npkeyk2i
“Here we go. Right on time. 2% of all university students in Russia will be press-ganged into the military. There are 8 million post-secondary students in Russia. 2% is 160,000 bodies that will be thrown into the meat grinder. Roughly 3x total active duty troops of Baltic states.”
https://bsky.app/profile/igorsushko.bsky.social/post/3mil4w464cc2h
⚡️Ukraine strikes airfield in occupied Crimea, destroys An-72 aircraft and Orion drone base. Ukrainian forces, with the help of military intelligence, struck multiple Russian military targets at the Kirovske airfield in occupied Crimea overnight on April 2, Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces said.
Perfect, it’s the AVTs you’re after!
“❗️As a result of yesterday’s strike on the 🇷🇺Bashneft-Novoil refinery in Ufa, the AVT-5 primary oil processing unit was damaged, — Radio Svoboda”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mil4qec47k2o
AFU reports:
213 KAB
9,058 kamikaze drones
3,788 shelling (104 from MLRS)
The Swedish Coast Guard has boarded a new vessel in the Baltic Sea, according to Carl-Oskar Bohlin (M), Minister for Civil Defense, at X. The vessel is believed to have sailed under a false flag.
An investigation into environmental crimes following an oil spill in the Swedish economic zone has also been initiated, the minister writes. However, the spill is said to be relatively small.
“At present, the Coast Guard does not see an imminent risk of the oil reaching the shore and can take action for oil spill cleanup if needed,” Bohlin writes.
The Coast Guard states in a press release that the vessel was en route from a port in the Gulf of Finland to an unknown destination. The vessel is on the EU’s sanctions list. There are 24 people on board.
“Breaking: Over 400 Russian drones detected in Ukraine’s airspace, missiles launched from bomber aircraft”
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-launches-unusual-morning-attack-with-over-400-drones-detected-in-airspace-air-force-says/
“According to Ukrainian monitoring channels, there are about a hundred Russian drones in Ukrainian air space. Most of them will be attacking Kyiv. Reportedly, Russia also launched cruise missiles, Kyiv might also be their target. Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian civilians continue”
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/2039967069769204054
Oil prices (Crude and Ural are from yesterday). Sad to see that the Russian oil, which previously has always been lower than the other two, is now the most expensive by a quite large margin.
Crude oil: 111.5
Brent oil: 109.2
Ural oil: 121.2
Thank you Johan, MXT, 205!
As mentioned, there are several positive signs that Europe is starting to show some backbone.
We will probably manage fine without the USA, as long as the USA does not turn directly against us. Unfortunately, such a turn cannot be ruled out. It has in a way already begun with the energy blackmail.
Regarding the Shia militia, I tried to verify with ChatGPT and the answer I got is that the videos are probably real but the time and place may not be accurate. It’s about disinformation.
https://youtube.com/shorts/GV-5CccmyY8?is=H5hwM7oT6oyd8CqH
In-depth analysis (based on real video + verified info)
🧩 1. Origin: what do we know for sure?
“militia convoy from Iraq to Iran”
👉 This means:
The video is not fabricated – but the context is unclear from the start.
🧩 2. Frame-by-frame (deep dive)
🎞️ Frame 1–3: Vehicles & formation
Observation:
Expert interpretation:
👉 Conclusion: almost certainly Iraqi militia
🎞️ Frame 4–6: Flags
Observation:
Verified context:
👉 HOWEVER:
🎞️ Frame 7–10: Cargo & content (very important)
Detail often missed:
Verified from reports:
👉 This changes the whole interpretation:
❗ Viral version:
“militias mobilizing for war”
✔️ Likely reality:
mix of militia + logistical/humanitarian transport
🎞️ Frame 11–15: Language (decisive)
Observation:
Consequence:
👉 This alone often suffices to debunk inaccurate captions
🎞️ Frame 16–20: Geography
Observation:
Comparison:
👉 The video:
⚠️ 3. The biggest misinterpretation (critical point)
Here’s what happens as the video spreads:
🔁 Step 1 – Genuine video
✔️ PMF convoy in Iraq (or near the border)
🔁 Step 2 – New caption
❌ “Thousands of militias on their way to invade Iran”
🔁 Step 3 – New mutation
❌ “They are now patrolling Tehran”
👉 However:
🧠 4. What is actually true (nuanced)
✔️ Iraqi militias HAVE:
BUT:
❗ There is no strong evidence that:
⚖️ Final assessment (deep level)
🔎 The video itself:
✅ Likely authentic
✅ Shows real militias
❌ The claim it is used for:
🎯 Bottom line
This is a textbook example of:
authentic video + wrong context = disinformation
Well spotted!
The question is whether it is only that video, or if there are any other signs indicating that help is being sought from Iraq. I think it should have reached the mainstream media if that were the case. They are usually slow (and they also, of course, sometimes publish fake news) but if it seems to be true, it tends to be reported.
ChatGPT about redirected diesel tankers:
Bottom line
Yes: some U.S. diesel tankers are being redirected or changing destinations.
But: the dominant trend is the opposite of what you might expect:
More U.S. diesel is flowing to Europe overall, not less.
What you’re seeing is short-term tactical rerouting inside a bigger surge toward Europe
…
Traders will redirect ships to wherever margins are best — even mid-voyage.
👍Big picture vs noise
Yes, I saw that the USA had also managed to increase exports by 30% and Europe should be one of the major buyers.
We see the USA and Europe heading in different directions. But do we take the USA seriously approaching Russia, or China? Militarily, which is the most serious approach to any issue, it is actually not. All military efforts that the USA has devoted to in recent years have more or less been directed towards Russia. Can it be disputed?
Diplomacy, foreign and domestic policy vs military efforts to compare talk vs action.
That is, if the USA does not support Ukraine to the same extent as we may be used to or expect, does that mean sending Patriot systems, which they seem to need around St. Petersburg, to Russia? Or in some other way militarily undermine Ukraine (apart from what the previous administration already engaged in). Give me examples!
Is a militarily strong Iran an advantage or a disadvantage for Russia. Syria? Venezuela? Cuba? North Korea?
Has Russia been militarily weakened or strengthened by US military actions? If the answer is not that Russia has been strengthened, but weakened, does this affect anything in the war between Russia and Ukraine? If so, to whose advantage?
Russia has not been strengthened militarily, that is quite clear. At the same time, Russia’s influence in the world, like in Venezuela, Cuba, Syria, Iran, has decreased significantly due to US actions. Even though it is of course troublesome for Russia, Venezuela and Cuba in particular fit into the idea of spheres of interest. The Iran war fits into Israel’s position with the American Christian right.
All this decrease in Russia’s influence is of course good. However, I believe that when it comes to Ukraine and Europe, US actions have helped Russia, not to win in the long run, but to avoid losing in the short term. Fortunately, the US has not helped Russia with arms deliveries, but on the other hand, conditioned arms deliveries to Ukraine on Ukraine agreeing to a disadvantageous peace here earlier. The bullying of Zelensky in the White House was the moment when we really saw the true face of Trump’s regime. In a discussion with bullies, a rape victim should not expect compassion, asking for help only shows weakness according to Trump’s gang.
The US’s (Trump’s) flirting with Belarus and Hungary are also indications that US policy has almost made a 180-degree turn under Trump. Trump and Putin both have a common goal to divide Europe.
Agree that there are (still) no clear evidence that Trump has promoted Russia in a clear way through actions and that there are also some contraindications.
However:
No, you are absolutely right. The USA has weakened Russia militarily, but perhaps mainly their political sphere of interest.
However, I would argue that significantly reducing support to Ukraine actually means indirectly helping Russia militarily.
And by that I perhaps mean that risking one’s own life to reduce Russia’s military alliance and Russia’s military influence is an effort worth many Patriot missiles, perhaps more than those that have been missing when Europe has failed to make payments within PURL. But one must weigh those efforts against monetary ones in a larger context.
I suspect that Macron’s plain speaking regarding the American administration’s, to put it mildly, messy actions stems from not only a generally increasing frustration but also from a growing conviction that things will go very badly for the Republicans in the midterm elections and that the result may even be that they lose the majority in both chambers.
In such cases, this would lead to Trump losing both wings and legs and during the remaining time of his term really becoming a lame duck.
Unfortunately, I’m afraid there’s probably nothing that can be done about his beak!
Something that can also be added to this is that the Russians are getting weaker and weaker while Ukraine is getting stronger and Europe is starting to become more tightly knit and picking up the pace on its rearmament and preparations.
OBS, very speculative but an alternative explanatory model for the behavior of the USA.
Sometimes I wonder (as I have written a post about before) if it could actually be as simple as Trump being even more afraid of being dragged into a direct conflict with Russia than Biden was.
That could explain his actions regarding Ukraine. Minimizing support, no longer sending weapons directly but letting Europe buy them and give them to Ukraine. In this way, they have essentially made themselves neutral in the war. Additionally, they are also trying to pressure Ukraine to give up.
Long before Trump became president and when he campaigned against support for Ukraine, he often said that Biden risked dragging the USA into a third world war. So, he himself used it as an argument.
The ultimatums given to Russia were constantly backed down by Trump, only to be forgotten later, even though sanctions were imposed.
We have no idea what the intelligence services believe they know and how Russia has planted it. For Russia, it is a great advantage to make everyone believe that a nuclear war is imminent if they don’t get what they want.
If Trump is actually afraid of Putin and his nuclear weapons and absolutely does not want the USA to be dragged into the war, then it would actually be a logical behavior.
Trump also avoided the military, so it is not impossible that he is afraid of conflict.
On the other hand, moving against Venezuela, Iran, and Cuba is relatively harmless, while still negatively affecting Russia. And the fact that Iran must be seen as a failure when oil prices rose to the high levels they did, allowing Russia to economically survive longer, was probably not something they had counted on. Luckily, Ukraine is successful in its attacks on the ports.
It could theoretically also be the case that there are some people in the USA who absolutely do not want to see reduced support for Ukraine (the majority actually supports Ukraine) and who would like to see Russia fall (Russia has always been an enemy of the USA) and who have actively planted the idea of moving against those countries with Trump.
Even if their intention was to weaken Russia, they probably sold Trump on the idea of controlling oil (since money is something he cares most about).
Yes, that is thoughtful.
As a narcissist with an enormous need for external validation, one is probably afraid of conflicts that one does not feel confident about winning at least…
Hmm, Trump doesn’t seem to be afraid of conflict, considering how he creates conflicts with practically everyone he talks to, especially if it’s people whom he already has a preconceived opinion about from the media. It seems like conflict is a normal state for him, that’s how he starts a discussion, by finding a good insult to provoke a conflict.
However, I think this only applies when he is discussing with people he considers inferior to him. This includes most democratically elected leaders, they are not as powerful, since they cannot point with the whole hand and must follow the democratic path when making decisions. Trump is impressed by power.
At the same time, I probably agree that he is afraid of nuclear weapons, bullies prefer to target those who are weaker. Of course, Russia is very weak now, but they have a whole bunch of nuclear weapons on paper.
I think he is mostly just impressed by Putin and his power, he believes in what he says, and he probably seeks advice from him on how to build his power. It even seems like he has adopted Putin’s view on NATO.
“Ukrainas 414:e Obemannade Stridsflygavdelning “Birds of Magyar” förstörde ett Buk-M1 luftvärnssystem nära Liubymivka i ockuperade Luhansk och träffade bränsletankar nära Shchotove, tillsammans med logistikdepåer i Valianivske. Attackerna utfördes med hjälp av långdistansstridsdronar.”
About the blue and yellow car:
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/ost/frivilliga-har-kort-till-ukraina-nastan-1-400-ganger-lamnar-bade-last-och-bilar
Lack of Russian air defense systems sounds good!
🥳
If there is any basis at all in the theories about the USA’s pro-Russian and anti-Ukrainian stance, Putin should now be able to buy the Patriot system from Trump as well as Patriot missiles redirected from Ukraine to Russia. Or, I don’t want to give Trumputin any ideas..
😂
Maybe Putin hasn’t dared to ask yet.
Well, let’s hope it doesn’t go that far, even though I actually believe that Trump would be capable of it, if he sees that the spoils of war promised to him by Putin disappear in a Ukrainian offensive.
That would truly be something that would shake up the whole world.
Ukraine’s Air Force released information about the latest Russian combined missile and drone attack. Shot down:
515/542 Shahed and other type drones
0/10 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
24/25 Kh-101 cruise missiles
2/2 Iskander-K cruise missiles
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3milmgkvrrs2i
Ballistics (0/10): out of Patriot missiles, or targets not protected by Patriot?
Cruise missiles can probably be countered with combat aircraft, but it may be that they were sent towards targets defended by Patriot and that there were Patriot missiles present.
At the same time, if it is true what is stated a little further up, they have lost precision. However, they do damage but better than if they can aim well.
“Harassed – after the criticism of the mosque Imam Ali Islamic Center
In early 2025, the Security Service makes an unusually concrete statement – leading figures in the Imam Ali Islamic Center in Järfälla have connections to the Iranian intelligence service.
According to the Security Service, the mosque is a platform for intelligence activities and also poses a security threat to individuals in the Iranian diaspora in Sweden.”
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/stockholm/trakasserades-efter-kritiken-mot-mosken-imam-ali-islamic-center
In Germany (and possibly France?), they have cracked down on the equivalent. Just do the same here. No one benefits except Shia extremists from them continuing their operations.
“Zelensky: Best situation at the front in ten months”
Ukraine’s situation at the front is the best in ten months, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj, as reported by Reuters.
“The situation is complex but the best it has been in the last ten months,” he says.
The analysis of the situation at the front is based on information from British and Ukrainian intelligence services.
According to the president, Ukrainian troops have halted a Russian offensive during the month of March.
“That’s why the Russians will simply intensify their attacks now,” says Zelenskyj.”
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/utrikes/direktrapport-forsamrat-sakerhetslage?inlagg=6a8694467e5947f580426048f78b0d8e
“Donald Trump proposes that the US defense budget should increase by 50 percent, reports Bloomberg. The President wants to see the equivalent of 14,000 billion kronor allocated to defense. The current figure is 9,400 billion. 3,300 billion of the total amount proposed in the budget is justified by the costs of the war in Iran. According to the White House, the increase is expected to be financed in part by cutting other expenses by ten percent. If the budget is approved by Congress, it would be the largest increase since World War II. The proposal comes at a time when many Americans report being against US warfare in Iran, writes the news agency.”
Wonder what those who voted him in think of the peace president now.
Is he going to try to out-arm China?
Lol at American voters. As you sow, so shall you reap.
I know that I usually am early out and then about half a year later it’s confirmed, when it comes to Ukraine most of it has turned out as we guessed and that was correct.
Lately, I have already informed that I use fewer sources and still write without the sources – you know that’s because that part alone takes hours and I didn’t manage to generate subscription interest so I cut it out. Since established media is slow and I usually stay ahead in the cycle, it becomes small Twitter images that have to go from the phone to the computer because I can’t have it on the work computer and it takes too long.
It doesn’t mean at all that I’m sitting here making wild speculations.
—
The Iraqi militias in Iran moved a bit faster than that, fresh from DW.
If you cut through the noise – pro-Iranian forces traveled by road from Iraq to Iran without being challenged when Israel and the USA have air superiority, AR-10, Apache, drones, excellent kill-chain, and eyes everywhere – that one shines like a big bright red snake on all their infrared cameras slowly slithering from Iraq to Iran.
Why were they allowed into Iran – that’s the question I’m struggling with that no one seems to care about, and that is now apparently being questioned?
https://www.dw.com/en/are-iran-allied-paramilitaries-dragging-iraq-into-the-war/a-76643752
Yes, theoretically, you can still question this, but my cycle has been like this for four years in the Ukraine war.
“hey we don’t read about this in the media yet so we don’t believe it.”
Comes out in the media
Silence
“hey we don’t read about this in the media yet so we don’t believe it.”
Repeat.
—
Oil and LNG – we are in an acute shortage situation that has led to skyrocketing prices and thoughts about rationing, and Trump has said on camera that Europe must sign the trade agreement if they want to buy USA LNG – which Europe did.
Zelensky himself says that “partners” are pressuring him not to bomb oil installations in Russia, in plural, and it is implied that Europe is included in that.
Rumors have it that the USA previously asked Zelensky to refrain from bombing installations that are economically valuable.
I have posted those pieces of information in posts in the last month.
6 refined product ships, I think it was diesel, were redirected and the diesel price has probably gone up the most?
https://www.vortexa.com/insights/diesel-tankers-diverteuro
LNG stocks are almost empty and it is urgent to refill them for winter, 11+2 have been redirected.
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/03/25/europe-loses-its-grip-as-lng-cargos-chase-higher-prices-in-asia
So does anyone seriously believe that there was a price war and that South Africa could pay a higher price than Europe?
Or does “Asia” have more money than us to buy LNG?
So Europe tried to save on the price and lost the deliveries?
For the record, I might as well write that you MXT wrote that the USA could not significantly increase its exports, so the shortage situation was not a win for them at all when we had that discussion a few days ago 😀
And now today you write that they have increased by 30% – things move fast in hockey apparently?
The context I am discussing is that the USA is using LNG and oil as leverage, you have to read into the cloud of information yourselves of course, but Zelensky himself has confirmed that Ukraine is under pressure even from Europe, and that Trump has threatened to cut off exports he has said himself. So when you see a few ships you thought you would buy from change course, it might have some influence on whether you comply with Trump/USA or not.
I believe it, and we will probably know in a few months because the USA will need to increase pressure on us significantly here, that’s a qualified guess.
—
The regime change and that you MXT don’t think the USA has said anything about the regime change. I have of course quoted the STRIDSMÅLEN with Operation Epic Fury completely correctly, and that is my starting point.
Then Hegseth and others have had to deny the regime change on several occasions when someone mentions it, it’s probably Trump who has said it a few times – I don’t know because there is too much information.
So my statement is completely correct.
“The mission of Operation Epic Fury is laser-focused: Destroy Iranian offensive missiles, destroy Iranian missile production, destroy their navy and other security infrastructure – and they will never have nuclear weapons.”
https://www.war.gov/Spotlights/Operation-Epic-Fury/#:~:text=%22The%20mission%20of%20Operation%20Epic,will%20never%20have%20nuclear%20weapons.%22
—
The USA was not the least unprepared for the Iran war and we are still in the phase where it is escalating, there is a reasonable voice about this in the thread and it is 205.
You all know just like me that the USA is preparing for some kind of ground operation and Trump gave a speech yesterday where he said “Iran will be bombed back to the Stone Age” and “they will eat with stone and stick after this.” At the very least, one can puzzle together that the USA intends to escalate and continue, and the time given was 2-3 weeks, right?
You can be sure that Iran will be pounded, and that the USA will eventually demand payment for the Hormuz passage and get a % of Iran’s oil, we are not there yet, but if we don’t end up there it’s because the USA didn’t get what they wanted, and I think they will get what they want.
If Europe, with Iran’s help, manages to push the USA completely out of the whole situation, it would be sensational, but how would that happen is my first question?
We don’t have the weapons to do it, and we are completely dependent on oil and LNG imports from the USA.
Excuse the digression.
What I am discussing is the REGIME CHANGE, now the militias have entered Iran, Israel has rearranged its operations AS I SEE IT (it’s a bit difficult to sift through the noise), Trump says his new buddies in the IRGC are lovely guys to negotiate with – and the USA clarifies that regime change was never on the table.
But Israel absolutely wanted it – and a qualified guess is that if they wanted regime change before February 28, it is urgent now with an angry IRGC blaming everything on Israel.
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-security/2026-02-24/ty-article/.premium/israel-backs-reza-pahlavi-to-rule-iran-thats-a-dangerous-gamble/0000019c-9043-dab1-adbe-ba6b9f570000
And what does China do if they see Trump taking control of their oil supplies via Hormuz?
China imports almost as much oil from the Middle East as from Russia, about 20% of total imports from each.
Just the price increase alone must give them chills. However, they had stocked up at the end of last year, so they probably sensed that something was going on.
The fact that the USA does not react to the “snake” feels surprising, but not remarkable. Americans have made throwing allies under the bus a popular sport, as both Europeans and Kurds can confirm, so there’s no denial discrimination there. Or maybe it’s just the usual American arrogance, they can fix that later since they have the world’s most powerful military and everything is going according to plan anyway. If you’ve already won a major victory four times in as many weeks and knocked out >90% of the opponent at least as many times in the same period, well, then you probably don’t need to worry about a bunch of pick-up trucks, right?
What surprises me, however, is that Israel allows it to happen.
Now it’s time for Ukraine to sell its drone defense at “five times the price” to other countries bordering Iran, including Israel.
After all, the system is both better and cheaper than what the USA can offer.
Of course, those countries do not want this technology to end up in Russia in the event of an occupation of Ukraine.
Moreover, support for the USA has always been very controversial in the MENA countries.
I believe Europe has a much better reputation there.
If nothing else, you can look at photographs from the 1960s in MENA when the United Kingdom was more active in those countries.
Or go to Vienna and you will see many wealthy Arabs in the cafes.
Especially during Ramadan.
Five interceptor drones for every Patriot robot sent to Ukraine. The Ukrainians probably send two drones for each Shahed, so that’s enough for 2 ½ Shahed, a pure wreck price!
Here I have to address some MXT, copy and paste again but this time just bold the names and then a line under a new topic.
You almost managed to include a post within the post today so the readers got good value for their monthly Swish on a Friday as well – have you all Swished for the page now 🧐
—
MXT: When it comes to Ukraine, the argument that the USA has had the same plan since the war started regardless of who is president does not hold. Trump opposed Ukraine long before he became president and just as many of us understood, he would withdraw support when he took power.
JOHAN: Between 2022 – 2025, I faced quite a bit of criticism for going against Biden, but I have clarified at times what the USA did, and we know today that it was true.
Over the years, we have discussed: VDV and Kherson, halted deliveries, Ukraine not allowed to attack into Russia, They were treated like crap at the NATO meeting in 2023, the USA stopped the information to them, and MUCH MORE. You have been part of these discussions all along.
All the red lines and prohibitions, the USA would approve EVERY TARGET to be fought with their weapons and the border was a clear red line – at a time when Ukraine did not have its own long-range.
Then we had the meeting with Biden in September 2024 when the rumor was that Biden scolded Zelensky severely and then it was no better with Trump – I wrote a long post in the other blog about that meeting and the total humiliation Zelensky had to endure from Biden and Trump.
During that period, Sullivan and Biden, with the USA behind them, did not hold back.
I think you all should think a little about this –
First, if I am completely off track about the Baltics, and second if all the bad started in 2025 or if the USA had been playing games with Russia since before 2022.
In the memoir chapter titled “WAR: August 2021 – April 2023,” Stoltenberg recalls a face-to-face meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in the fall of 2021 and acknowledges that, despite being aware of Poland’s and the Baltic states’ opposition, he nevertheless proposed to Lavrov that the NATO-Russia Council discuss Russia’s idea of creating a buffer zone in the border areas and withdrawing allied troops to their pre-1997 positions.
https://balticsentinel.eu/8442729/book-review-jens-stoltenberg-betrayed-the-baltic-states-in-2021-and-appears-entirely-untroubled-by-it#:~:text=BOOK%20REVIEW%20%E2%9F%A9%20Jens%20Stoltenberg%20Betrayed,:%20Alexander%20Shcherbak/TASS/Scanpix
—
MXT: If there were others secretly controlling the USA with the goals you outline. How come they were willing to help Ukraine with quite extensive arms deliveries right up until Trump became president? Especially since it has been Russia that has been gaining ground all along (albeit very slowly). So, would they have concluded that the best suddenly is for Ukraine to lose? Or is it best for there to be peace? If the goal is for Russia to pose a threat to Europe and at the same time drain our economy, etc., then a continued war would rather be the smartest solution. Now they are completely undermining Ukraine. And this turn they would have stumbled upon at the same time as Trump took over?
Intel seems to continue helping out (doesn’t cost them anything) and weapons deliveries on a small scale if someone else pays.
JOHAN: You urgently miss a very important detail – a ceasefire in Ukraine releases Russian forces in Ukraine.
You misinterpret that peace in Ukraine would mean de-escalation instead of escalation.
ISW is the primary source, found only this one but they report accurately and comprehensively, probably they stole it from me.
https://unn.ua/en/news/ceasefire-in-ukraine-will-give-russian-troops-an-opportunity-to-quickly-redeploy-to-natos-eastern-border-isw
If there is a ceasefire in Ukraine, our buffer disappears, and we in Europe then have the entire Russian military to deal with.
Trump has TRIED to bring down Ukraine throughout 2025, demanding new elections and badmouthing Zelensky as much as he could but it didn’t work. Trump/USA has tried to start popular protests in Ukraine and Russia was ready with operations in Ukraine – demonstrations. We have written about this.
They TRIED to bring down Ukraine by soft means.
Then, of course, the situation has changed, hasn’t it?
-In 2022, the USA/Biden offered Zelensky to leave Ukraine and the country would fall in three days.
-In the fall of 2022, Russia urgently needed saving when VDV was threatened.
-In 2023, they needed to intermittently stop all material so Ukraine couldn’t continue offensive operations when things were going well, and the prohibitions were ENDLESS on what they could and couldn’t do.
Then from the fall of 2023, Russia advanced as you write, and then they probably waited? The only thing that needed to be stopped then was the frontline aviation so RU could replace the artillery with FAB before the drone weapon started.
-In 2025, the USA/Trump tried to bring down Ukraine politically.
-In 2026, it seems that Russia is planning to open a conflict in the Baltics and the USA is now preparing for it.
—
MXT: The explanation then is that Biden is afraid of nuclear weapons and a third world war. He gladly did what he could to prevent Ukraine from losing, but at the same time, he was terrified that they would go too far (cross the border, or bomb deep targets) and thereby risk provoking Russia to do something drastic. Russia has worked (and works) hard to make it appear that it is a possibility, and then we only see their media, not how their intelligence works. There is certainly “leaked” and planted information to reinforce it even to Western intelligence services.
JOHAN: You attribute only good intentions to Biden and excuse him here, I think the collective Ukraine does not agree with you at all?
Consider that I do not in any way support Trump’s actions regarding Ukraine, but giving Biden a free pass is directly dishonest argumentation.
I simply do not believe in this, and you know why – in 1945, it was by design from Roosevelt that Russia should pose a threat to Europe, you know that history.
I am convinced that Biden was more diplomatic and cautious than Trump, but the goal for the USA was the same.
Trump is unpredictable and impulsive, and much more corrupt than Biden, but the goal is the same. Trump is a risk-taker.
Since WE IN THE THREAD SINCE 2022 have seen through the bluff – do you seriously believe that the USA did not see through that bluff during Biden’s time?
After all, you are having a discussion with me now, do you seriously think that my analytical ability exceeds that of the USA’s collective analytical ability?
If so, thank you, and I will fly with a big smile that the US intelligence services will hire me once I have sent my CV to them.
—
MXT: Trump, on the other hand, has as I said always been against Ukraine and Zelenskyy, and it showed immediately when he came to power. Moreover, he wants to make money and he believes that Putin can help him with that.
JOHAN: You know that Ukraine had hopes that Trump would be on their side?
Yes, I definitely wanted to see that too for Ukraine’s sake, but do you remember my posts about Trump in 2025 and 2026,
https://johanno1.se/sv/analys-trump-24-april-2025/
https://johanno1.substack.com/p/sista-analysen-av-trump-etal-21-januari
I have described Trump’s betrayal of Ukraine throughout 2025, how his buddies invested in the stock market before statements, and all of that.
—
MXT: He is thus pursuing his own line towards Ukraine. It is not some DeepState USA behind it. Then how far Trump has planned is of course harder to know. He is angry with Europe, but he probably wasn’t from the beginning. Therefore, I do not believe that he had any plan for Russia to continue to pose a threat to Europe. He just wanted to end the war, preferably with Russia as the winner to be in good standing with Putin and get his deals. Now, however, your theories might actually be something he is considering.
JOHAN: so we erase 1945, the Yalta Conference, a Cold War, and then the period from 2022 onwards, and everything started with Trump?
Then we bring in a little “Deepstate” to insinuate that it is conspiratorial to think otherwise?
If you read about how the USA behaved during the Cold War, you will see that 2022 – 2026 is not an exception at all – that’s how they worked and how they work.
I had the privilege of sitting almost two years discussing South America – USA with a Peruvian socialist every day over breakfast, lunch, dinner, and understand why they HATE the USA over there.
But yes, Biden was diplomatic and cautious, Trump is an unpredictable risk-taker.
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MXT: He probably wants to hit Europe now that we are not doing as he says. The chance that he wants to see a continued war but then between Europe and Russia has increased.
JOHAN: Yes, it has, and probably you who have written an endless number of times that Russia will NEVER attack the Baltics will find a model to explain that you have been right all along but then it is Trump who has changed everything and then you were right again 😀
The truth is that Russia has always had a multi-stage rocket where the Baltics were the operation after Ukraine.
Now that Stoltenberg has even opened the lid, maybe we can start reevaluating this or do we need more information than the NATO chief himself admitting what they have been up to?
Now maybe Ukraine will achieve great success on the battlefield and Russia will implode or Europe will send in its brigades to the Baltics so Russia cannot enter.
But before that happens, this is high risk, and I have set the time for this operation in the fall sometime in my 2-3 posts about Operation Baltics different scenarios.
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MXT: I am still skeptical. I think Trump’s actions in Ukraine are, as I said, a collaboration with Putin. Putin has also long felt that he needs to end as a winner and has probably promised Trump good deals (and surely hidden money) if he can arrange it. That’s why Trump acts as he does with increased pressure on Ukraine.
I don’t think Russia has any interest in continuing a full-scale war against Europe. Sure, they would initially have some success, but when they cannot defeat Ukraine even though Ukraine has not received on-site support, how the heck will they manage to expand the war?
JOHAN: the problem is that everything is black and white – a full-scale war will only happen if Europe GOES TO WAR, right?
It must be voted on in every parliament because the EU will not be able to agree on a common response.
It is a problem that the brigades are NOT in the Baltics, a problem I have raised many times – as far as I know, no one else is raising it except the Balts but they went silent about it in 2025 (why?).
What happens if Russia takes a few miles of land in the Baltics and goes on the defensive?
Little green men and such that maybe Europe will not go to war for because RU flatly denies?
And then a financial crisis like in 2008, and with military actions, capital flees Europe and we get a Europe-wide PIIGS this time?
We know the drone weapon is deterrent for Europe now – Hedgehog exercise.
What is the downside for Russia – they enter with 50,000 in the Baltics, what is the worst consequence for them?
When you have thought about that, you will come to the conclusion that the worst consequence for Russia is that they lose 50,000 and have to retreat back across the border.
Europe simply does not have the amount of LV or robots to start targeting in Russia – we will NEVER do it when the backlash is 500 Geran/day which is also in a pearl necklace in ships all around Europe waiting.
Do you all believe that the USA will help in the Baltics, after Stoltenberg’s admission do you still think so?
Or after Trump, Rubio, and the USA say that the USA will not help.
Do you think they figured it out NOW when you read Stoltenberg, or have Russia – the USA previously agreed on this?
Is Stoltenberg simply a loose cannon that the USA did not support and then everything started with Trump?
The answer is of course, and now we know it after Stoltenberg’s book, that this has been under discussion all along.
An not entirely unreasonable guess is that some kind of plan has been formed since 2018 and then the Alaska meeting – that Russia and the USA have an understanding of what is happening beyond what we in Europe demonstrably have, I think is becoming overly clear.
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MXT: That the USA would then act as they do because they want Russia to continue waging war against us does not feel logical. The USA wants to end it and at the same time save face for Russia (and put Zelenskyy in power).
JOHAN: or maybe the USA wants Europe in a “cold war” with Russia so the USA can do as they please internationally without us daring to protest and sell LNG, Oil, and security to us at five times the market price?
Do you and everyone else feel that Europe is currently compliant about the Iran war and not trying to circumvent the USA?
Would it be better for the USA if Europe remained completely silent and just took over guarding the Hormuz Strait for free for the USA?
How could the USA make Europe compliant again – what worked between 1945 – 1990?
Final words will probably be as follows –
Biden and the USA pre-2025 deserve all the criticism they can get.
Trump from 2025 onwards has betrayed Ukraine, which I have been very clear about, 205 probably got annoyed with me the other week for that?
Regarding the Iran war, Israel has had the ambition to change the regime, and for me, that was legitimate because Iran is and was a big threat, and they have assisted Russia in killing Ukrainians for several years.
If the USA gets what they want according to their battle plan, I do not support it at all, and you already know that, and you will hear more about it.
My assumption I have written is that Israel would get what they wanted, they wanted a regime change and then the war was legitimate.
I have said that Venezuela and Cuba are unjust.
If within a few months we end up with the USA stopping Israel with the regime change, the conclusion will be the same as with the Ukraine war – USA is a really bad actor.
We already have evidence that the USA is pressuring Europe, if nothing else, Trump says so? And the tariff war was mostly aimed at us in the West, I think, Russia at least got a free pass.
Is Europe ready to rise – here it gets a bit tricky, I don’t think so because we just put pressure on Ukraine but in the Iran war, we have spoken out a lot. We should do that because we were not informed and we have to face the consequences – I have also written about that.
Why do we have to face the consequences – because we import 100% of way too much and it makes us vulnerable.
Why does no one listen to us?
Because we do not project strength and that is the only thing everyone else listens to – if you are low-affective and reasonable, it must be seen as positive by the other side, if they only listen to firepower, you will be ignored.
The Baltics are the litmus test and before we have the brigades in the area, my assessment is that we are not ready yet – according to agreements, our brigades should already be there so we have already broken the agreements with the Balts, or at least we are not following them completely.
There is a certain risk that Europe will turn to China now instead of rising – China has built up Russia’s arms industry since around 2023 and thus built up a threat against us.
They have also stopped exporting critical raw materials and equipment to us.
China is just like the USA, Iran, and Russia not our friend – do we need friends or are we strong enough on our own?
You know what I believe, and with Ukraine, we are even better, but just like in 1939-1940, there is no political will and we have refused to embrace warfare in 2026 yet, and we are dependent on imports from everyone else.
I have a problem when one chooses a side ideologically or for other reasons and then argues based on that. We all belong to a side but everyone can do good and then bad, and that must be discussed. It does not mean that you choose a side, just that you discuss the situation as it is based on a reasonable starting point, I think.
Then we will see what happens on the ground and make our own analyzes of that – it has worked well throughout the Ukraine war. Yes, I like to be ahead in the cycle, but when the media has finally filtered and written their version, it is already biased and too late.
Now it is, as I said, a flying day but it is preceded by the less fun cleaning day that I can no longer avoid judging by the looks I am starting to get here – we’ll talk if I survive the day.
I forgot a piece – In August 2025, Trump fooled me into believing he had made a U-turn, but it was a ruse – Ukraine would receive support, the USA would stand behind them, and so on, and discussions began about Trump/USA reassessing and seeing the actual situation.
Now, several other prominent figures in the debate came out later saying they fell for it too, some retired generals and others.
But MXT did not, we might as well check the thread but I guess that was not the case 😀
Exactly why we will have to clarify at some point, but perhaps it was to force Russia to make some concession?
I have written about that a few times, but of course, it should have been included in the response above for an honest discussion since I implied that I already understood what Trump was up to in April 2025.
Yes, there MXT made it, otherwise you got 9/10. Pure ballistic missiles against targets without Patriot.
😂👍
Sorry, it wasn’t meant for you to have to spend half the day defending yourself.
I was hoping you would be right about Trump, when they showed scantily clad pictures of the wife, one thought, now for sure! But no.
Made it to the flight 👍😀
Maybe it was when those pictures came that you wrote just that 🤣🤣
It’s too much now to keep up with everything
came up with something relevant for the discussion on the way to the airport but it was more fleeting than the beer
Today I missed mentioning that a lot of generals in the US have been fired
guaranteed bad
maybe it was brought up earlier.
Ukraine is ready to assist in unblocking the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East if requested, — President Zelenskyy.
”Ukraine has experience launching a grain corridor in the Black Sea despite Russia’s attempts to block the supply of food and other goods. The current situation is similar, but this time it concerns energy.”
— President Zelenskyy
Ukraine is ready to assist in unblocking the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East if requested.
An attitude quite different from how many European countries have responded to American requests for assistance. And a more serious approach than taken from experts and bloggers smearing, raveling and joking about the US/Israeli-led effort to dismantle the world’s leading terrorism regime. The jokes will land on those who deserve it.