Will Russia attack NATO in the near future?
More and more people, like Carlo Masala, believe that Russia will soon attack a NATO country to prove that Article 5 will not hold.
“An expert warns that Putin could launch an attack on the Baltics as soon as in three years, writes Newsweek.
– It will be the end of NATO, NATO will collapse,” says political scientist Carlo Masala about the doomsday scenario surrounding the defense alliance’s reaction to the Russian attack.”
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/varlden/oron-putin-gar-till-ny-attack-om-tre-ar/
I disagree.
I believe that the likelihood of Russia attacking NATO before the war in Ukraine is resolved is minimal. However, it could happen afterwards depending on how the war concludes.
I’m not saying that Russia can’t do it, they don’t care much about losses and they don’t always seem to act rationally. They could have attacked in 2022 when they thought they were completely superior and would defeat Ukraine in a few weeks. At the same time, they are not completely foolish.
Even though they are trying to build up reserves, I don’t think they have enough resources left to actually dare to attack. I am completely convinced that it’s a matter of pure propaganda.
They are trying in every way they can to appear strong and threatening to make Europe feel insecure and invest in their own defense, thereby undermining support for Ukraine. Figures showed that deliveries to Ukraine decreased by 40-50% in the past months, Putin is probably satisfied with his psychological warfare.
We still seem to have difficulty understanding that the best way to defeat Russia is to give Ukraine everything they need. If we first arm all European countries, Ukraine will be forced to give up and Putin will get what he wants. He simply plays us, a few drones here, little green men there, and we obediently fall for it and start talking about drone walls around the EU, when the drone wall should be at Ukraine’s border with Russia.
But back to the possibility of Russia attacking a NATO country.
Russia has somewhere between 400-800,000 soldiers (depending on who you listen to) in Ukraine, many of whom are now the most experienced in their army. Yet they advance (slower than a snail).
It is only when he can release them (either through peace or victory over Ukraine) that he can seriously threaten NATO. Before that, an attack would have failed sooner or later and only put Russia in an even worse situation.
Spreading the idea that NATO will betray and act against another NATO country as they have acted against Ukraine (i.e., only providing half-hearted support without sending their own troops, etc.) is not far from serving Putin’s interests.
Making the enemy doubt themselves and their own capabilities and their partners’ loyalty, you have already won the first battle before the fight even begins.
I’m not saying that Europe shouldn’t prepare for war with Russia or that we shouldn’t arm ourselves. Of course, we should, but Ukraine should first and foremost receive all the resources they need. That is the best for both Ukraine and the rest of Europe.
Russian losses:
- 890 KIA
- 2 Tanks
- 45 Artillery systems
- 1 Anti-aircraft system
- 398 UAVs
- 94 Vehicles & Fuel tanks
SLAVA UKRAINI
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168 combat clashes
Off-Topic, China’s economy / trade war between the USA and China
“China’s GDP increased by 4.8 percent between July and September on an annual basis, according to the national statistics office NBS. It is the lowest growth rate in a year but slightly above analysts’ expectations, according to Bloomberg.
A weaker real estate sector and the trade war with the USA are some of the reasons behind the weaker demand, writes Reuters.
Sequentially, China’s GDP increased by 1.1 percent in the third quarter.
At the same time, the one-year benchmark interest rate was left unchanged at 3 percent, as was the five-year benchmark interest rate at 3.50 percent. Both announcements were expected, according to Trading Economics estimates.
China reiterates the goal of achieving 5 percent growth for the full year. According to Eurasia chief Dan Wang, the market expected China to miss the full-year target.
– But based on the figures for the first three quarters, it looks like the target will be achieved, which suggests that China can withstand the pressure from the USA, he says.”
https://omni.se/lagsta-tillvaxten-i-kina-pa-ett-ar-tullkriget-tynger/a/Av42e5
Apparently, Trump blindly trusts what Putin says.
If he believes in Putin and Russian propaganda, it would explain much of his attitude towards the war and his reluctance to help Ukraine.
“During Friday’s meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky, Donald Trump expressed himself in a completely different way about the Russian economy compared to what he had previously said publicly, reports the Financial Times.
Trump has threatened new sanctions against Russia to force Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table and recently claimed that the country’s economy could “collapse.” However, in the meeting at the White House, he is said to have stated that the Russian economy is “doing great,” according to the newspaper’s information.”
https://omni.se/trump-ska-ha-talat-gott-om-rysk-ekonomi-gar-jattebra/a/W09LaG
Two senile individuals sharing a perception of reality. The likelihood of it happening is already low. The probability of the two also being presidents of two of the world’s largest nuclear powers is so low that it has not occurred, to quote Tage Danielsson.
We speculate about everything, that Putin has Trump by the balls, that he is completely ignorant, easily manipulated, or that his narcissism has reached such heights that he actually sees himself as divine. Surely, the fragile ceasefire in Israel-Palestine is of little surprise to him. Being as devoid of history as he actually is, he probably thought he could clean up a 2000-year-old conflict zone in no time. I am reminded of a story that might explain Trump’s behavior a bit.
“A robber armed with an AK-4 rushes into a bank and orders everyone to get down on the floor. Everyone, except an elderly man, follows the command. The robber shouts at the man to lie down or he will shoot him.
– I don’t think you will, I am actually a special agent.
– Shut up and lie down, old man, or I’ll shoot.
– No, you won’t shoot because I am a special agent.
The robber fires a short burst into the ceiling, yells at the man to lie down.
The man calmly looks at the robber, reiterates that he doesn’t believe the robber will shoot him because he is a special agent. The robber feels time running out, the shots have probably alerted the surroundings so he rushes out of the premises. Then the man’s wife hisses from the floor.
– How many times do I have to tell you, you are not a special agent, you are senile.”
One more person who has read the blog and who is afraid that Russia will test NATO’s Article 5.
“An expert warns that Putin may launch an attack on the Baltics in as little as three years, writes Newsweek.
– It will be the end of NATO, then NATO will collapse, says political scientist Carlo Masala about the nightmare scenario surrounding the defense alliance’s response to the Russian attack.”
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/varlden/oron-putin-gar-till-ny-attack-om-tre-ar/