Will Russia attack NATO in the near future?
More and more people, like Carlo Masala, believe that Russia will soon attack a NATO country to prove that Article 5 will not hold.
“An expert warns that Putin could launch an attack on the Baltics as soon as in three years, writes Newsweek.
– It will be the end of NATO, NATO will collapse,” says political scientist Carlo Masala about the doomsday scenario surrounding the defense alliance’s reaction to the Russian attack.”
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/varlden/oron-putin-gar-till-ny-attack-om-tre-ar/
I disagree.
I believe that the likelihood of Russia attacking NATO before the war in Ukraine is resolved is minimal. However, it could happen afterwards depending on how the war concludes.
I’m not saying that Russia can’t do it, they don’t care much about losses and they don’t always seem to act rationally. They could have attacked in 2022 when they thought they were completely superior and would defeat Ukraine in a few weeks. At the same time, they are not completely foolish.
Even though they are trying to build up reserves, I don’t think they have enough resources left to actually dare to attack. I am completely convinced that it’s a matter of pure propaganda.
They are trying in every way they can to appear strong and threatening to make Europe feel insecure and invest in their own defense, thereby undermining support for Ukraine. Figures showed that deliveries to Ukraine decreased by 40-50% in the past months, Putin is probably satisfied with his psychological warfare.
We still seem to have difficulty understanding that the best way to defeat Russia is to give Ukraine everything they need. If we first arm all European countries, Ukraine will be forced to give up and Putin will get what he wants. He simply plays us, a few drones here, little green men there, and we obediently fall for it and start talking about drone walls around the EU, when the drone wall should be at Ukraine’s border with Russia.
But back to the possibility of Russia attacking a NATO country.
Russia has somewhere between 400-800,000 soldiers (depending on who you listen to) in Ukraine, many of whom are now the most experienced in their army. Yet they advance (slower than a snail).
It is only when he can release them (either through peace or victory over Ukraine) that he can seriously threaten NATO. Before that, an attack would have failed sooner or later and only put Russia in an even worse situation.
Spreading the idea that NATO will betray and act against another NATO country as they have acted against Ukraine (i.e., only providing half-hearted support without sending their own troops, etc.) is not far from serving Putin’s interests.
Making the enemy doubt themselves and their own capabilities and their partners’ loyalty, you have already won the first battle before the fight even begins.
I’m not saying that Europe shouldn’t prepare for war with Russia or that we shouldn’t arm ourselves. Of course, we should, but Ukraine should first and foremost receive all the resources they need. That is the best for both Ukraine and the rest of Europe.
Russian losses:
- 890 KIA
- 2 Tanks
- 45 Artillery systems
- 1 Anti-aircraft system
- 398 UAVs
- 94 Vehicles & Fuel tanks
SLAVA UKRAINI
Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!
168 combat clashes
Off-Topic, China’s economy / trade war between the USA and China
“China’s GDP increased by 4.8 percent between July and September on an annual basis, according to the national statistics office NBS. It is the lowest growth rate in a year but slightly above analysts’ expectations, according to Bloomberg.
A weaker real estate sector and the trade war with the USA are some of the reasons behind the weaker demand, writes Reuters.
Sequentially, China’s GDP increased by 1.1 percent in the third quarter.
At the same time, the one-year benchmark interest rate was left unchanged at 3 percent, as was the five-year benchmark interest rate at 3.50 percent. Both announcements were expected, according to Trading Economics estimates.
China reiterates the goal of achieving 5 percent growth for the full year. According to Eurasia chief Dan Wang, the market expected China to miss the full-year target.
– But based on the figures for the first three quarters, it looks like the target will be achieved, which suggests that China can withstand the pressure from the USA, he says.”
https://omni.se/lagsta-tillvaxten-i-kina-pa-ett-ar-tullkriget-tynger/a/Av42e5
Apparently, Trump blindly trusts what Putin says.
If he believes in Putin and Russian propaganda, it would explain much of his attitude towards the war and his reluctance to help Ukraine.
“During Friday’s meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky, Donald Trump expressed himself in a completely different way about the Russian economy compared to what he had previously said publicly, reports the Financial Times.
Trump has threatened new sanctions against Russia to force Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table and recently claimed that the country’s economy could “collapse.” However, in the meeting at the White House, he is said to have stated that the Russian economy is “doing great,” according to the newspaper’s information.”
https://omni.se/trump-ska-ha-talat-gott-om-rysk-ekonomi-gar-jattebra/a/W09LaG
Two senile individuals sharing a perception of reality. The likelihood of it happening is already low. The probability of the two also being presidents of two of the world’s largest nuclear powers is so low that it has not occurred, to quote Tage Danielsson.
We speculate about everything, that Putin has Trump by the balls, that he is completely ignorant, easily manipulated, or that his narcissism has reached such heights that he actually sees himself as divine. Surely, the fragile ceasefire in Israel-Palestine is of little surprise to him. Being as devoid of history as he actually is, he probably thought he could clean up a 2000-year-old conflict zone in no time. I am reminded of a story that might explain Trump’s behavior a bit.
“A robber armed with an AK-4 rushes into a bank and orders everyone to get down on the floor. Everyone, except an elderly man, follows the command. The robber shouts at the man to lie down or he will shoot him.
– I don’t think you will, I am actually a special agent.
– Shut up and lie down, old man, or I’ll shoot.
– No, you won’t shoot because I am a special agent.
The robber fires a short burst into the ceiling, yells at the man to lie down.
The man calmly looks at the robber, reiterates that he doesn’t believe the robber will shoot him because he is a special agent. The robber feels time running out, the shots have probably alerted the surroundings so he rushes out of the premises. Then the man’s wife hisses from the floor.
– How many times do I have to tell you, you are not a special agent, you are senile.”
😂😂😂👍
😂😂😂
More rarely one laughs out loud to oneself. But this was one of those occasions. 😊
Thank you!
The husband is like a weather vane, he is the clown. Perhaps a touch of schizophrenia too?
One more person who has read the blog and who is afraid that Russia will test NATO’s Article 5.
“An expert warns that Putin may launch an attack on the Baltics in as little as three years, writes Newsweek.
– It will be the end of NATO, then NATO will collapse, says political scientist Carlo Masala about the nightmare scenario surrounding the defense alliance’s response to the Russian attack.”
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/varlden/oron-putin-gar-till-ny-attack-om-tre-ar/
Yes, it is read by some of the world’s greatest – Nelson Mandela, for example
Wondering if they have also listened to Zelensky and Budanov maybe?
An expert too, whom I do not trust
“Overnight on October 20, Russia launched 3 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 60 attack drones, including around 40 Shaheds, from occupied Crimea and Russian territory. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted or jammed 38 drones. However, 3 missiles and 20 drones struck 12 locations.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3m3mbyl66ds2s
“Zelensky: “Det blir ingen reträtt från Donbas, Ukrainas ställning är oförändrad.” Han varnade Trump för att “ge Putin en andra chans,” betonade att Ukraina kämpar mot en mycket starkare armé, och sa att kriget inte kan avslutas snabbt.”
Off-Topic, the trade war between the USA and China
“China’s export of rare earth metals to the USA plummeted in September, reports Reuters.
In September, China exported a total of 5,774 tons, compared to 6,146 tons in August. The export to the USA plummeted by 29 percent. The figure is sensitive as it is part of the trade conflict between China and the USA.
“I don’t want China to play the rare earth game with us,” said Donald Trump to reporters aboard Air Force One on Sunday.
Earlier in October, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that several countries may be forced to “decouple” from China due to its stricter export restrictions on rare earth metals. China stated last week that the USA is deliberately trying to misinterpret the restrictions and create “global anxiety”.”
https://omni.se/kinas-export-av-sallsynta-jordartsmetaller-till-usa-rasar/a/o3dp3R
Global concern about Russia and China
Off-Topic, IT-Problem
“Many of the world’s largest apps and websites have stopped working for many users on Monday, several media outlets report. Among the affected services are Snapchat, Amazon, Signal, New York Times, and a number of gaming services.
According to Downdetector, at least 45 companies are experiencing issues.
According to Reuters, the problem appears to be linked to Amazon Web Services, which provides the technical infrastructure for a wide range of companies.”
https://omni.se/minst-45-stora-appar-har-problem-snapchat-och-new-york-times-drabbade/a/Av4dRq
“❗️The elimination of 🇷🇺Russian infantry groups that infiltrated Pokrovsk recently and opened fire on civilians. According to 🇺🇦Ukrainian paratroopers, Pokrovsk’s defenses have been reinforced with additional forces and assets.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3m3miojwhfk25
Regarding Europe’s support for Ukraine, it is probably more meaningful to study the longer perspective. Curves are never perfectly straight, and the perspective of a few months is essentially a snapshot. What is important in the medium term is that the support increases. There is also room for countries like France and Germany to increase their share of the support.
https://www.kielinstitut.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/Subject_Dossiers_Topics/Ukraine/Ukraine_Support_Tracker/3rd_Aniv_Report.pdf
Hello Lynx
Ukraine belongs to Europe, period – that’s guaranteed
how we get there is a bit open.
what an enormous win for Europe
Well, of course, a couple of months may not say much, but in a situation where the Russians are advancing and Ukraine constantly has to retreat, every month with fewer deliveries is significant.
Completely agree about France and Germany.
Too bad the report only covered until the end of 2024.
Has a lot of generals been fired in China – trouble in paradise?
Paranoia grows, the typical scourge that affects dictators sooner or later. If Xi becomes a Stalin, it’s good for Taiwan, just like it was for Finland in ’39. When experienced officers are replaced by incompetent loyalists, war follows.
Are we back to pre-August?
Should the US try to mess with Europe again, maybe we will get tired?
How Europe’s support in the upcoming financial crash will look like is probably of importance.
Hmm… I do not agree with MXT in today’s column. Do not think that the Russians think like us. Do not think that the Russians assess risks like we do. The Russians do not perceive military violence (war) as fundamentally different from diplomacy or other tools in the state’s toolbox.
The Russians are opportunists, who do not see what we see. If they see weakness (no problem doing that), they see an opportunity to advance their positions. Everything depends on what they believe they can gain. So, NATO is not a stable threat to the Russian heartland, within their own borders, then there is low risk for them to test an attack.
Only if the Russians fear invasion or a massive attack in their own country, then war is a real war for them. A little war on someone else’s territory is just administration and economics. – It is against this background, I believe, that the actions of Western countries (and for that matter also Ukraine’s) should be interpreted.
Above, I wrote under a comment that Zelensky recently issued a sharp warning that if RU mobilizes (which they seem to have started with), it is to go to war with us.
Budanov recently said that full-scale war is not imminent but he guaranteed on his grandmother’s honor that it was the Russian intention.
—
An interesting point you have there – since NATO is defensive, they pose no threat to Russia. That’s the image Europe and the USA have made every effort to paint, moreover.
And if there is no threat, it’s worth testing – very Russian indeed.
That last one I probably have to steal and get into a discussion about 😀
A NATO defending itself still threatens Russia.
Not that we will invade them, but their weapons industry, oil production, railways, etc. will be in a bad position and perhaps their shadow fleet will have huge problems.
How long do you think Russia would survive when oil revenues dry up to almost nothing?
Sure, China actually has a pipeline that they get oil through, but even that is at risk of an accident.
Are we not trying to stop it now?
I completely agree with you that Putin and the Russians do not think like us. Putin would gladly sacrifice 50-100-200,000 men if he saw an opportunity to gain something from it.
But what would he actually gain?
Let’s say he goes into, for example, Estonia. He could of course achieve successes and conquer a lot of territory while testing NATO’s Article 5. Let’s say we don’t have time to mobilize and respond immediately and that Estonia cannot resist.
He would still have activated NATO and it would only be a matter of time before he is forced to retreat. At the same time, there is also the threat that NATO would actually respond quickly and forcefully, and his attack would be a total failure.
Before he even manages to achieve a victory in Ukraine, he would have to start a new war with little prospects of greater long-term success.
When it comes to Ukraine, he could use pretexts such as Ukrainians killing and oppressing Russians, and that they are also Nazis. Something that propaganda has worked hard on for many years and something that has convinced many Russians (and the world) that “the special military operation” was actually necessary. There are plenty of people everywhere who have fallen for that propaganda.
But what pretext would he use against Estonia?
Before Putin decides to attack more countries, we will first understand it from domestic propaganda, as the country’s inhabitants will be portrayed as monsters who kill Russians or something similar.
Attacking Estonia or any other NATO country would be a huge risk for him. He, of course, doesn’t care about the soldiers, but he probably values his own life and power much higher.
In addition to the Russians, he will have more countries that have remained neutral turning against him.
He is probably not afraid that NATO will invade Russia, but if it were to be a prolonged war, NATO would strike deeply to weaken Russia, just as Ukraine is doing.
He already has significant problems with Ukraine today, which is destroying refineries, depots, and gas pipelines. It would be much worse if he also had to fight against NATO.
What he can gain is, of course, NATO losing focus on Ukraine so that a war in Estonia would work as a good diversionary maneuver.
But if NATO is already at war with Russia, there is nothing stopping us from actually deploying troops in Ukraine as well. It would rather be a natural progression.
He doesn’t need a diversionary maneuver either; just provoking and projecting a threat is enough, just as he chooses to do.
Europe feels an increased sense of threat, but far from enough to truly prepare for war, but enough to think more about its own defense.
I believe he has us exactly where he wants us.
Furthermore, if Russia truly had reserves to fight against NATO, why wouldn’t they deploy those resources in Ukraine? If Russia wants to go against NATO, a total victory in Ukraine would be the best preparation to then move forward.
The only real threat as I see it is if China were to be involved and felt they wanted to enter a global war. Then it would be a natural escalation to continue further. Although I don’t believe in the idea that they are behind everything and have a long-term plan to unlock Europe for Russia so that they themselves can take Taiwan and start a world war against the USA.
The problem is that Putin only respects strength. The European countries do not project strength, they send some harsh words, bicker among themselves, and Orban and Fico tease and drive wedges where they can.
He respects the strength of the USA, but when he repeatedly confirms that Trump is manageable, it may come to a point where he feels that if he is to have the Baltics back, it must happen while Trump is president, and before Europe has gathered itself and rearmed.
Furthermore, the quarrels with the EU result in them arming themselves, and Ukraine getting less.
The West does not want to invade Russia, and Putin knows that. What we need to make him understand is that if a war breaks out, NATO’s response will be immediate and precisely violent against both high-tech production and other vital production in Russia.
To obtain warmth and food, one must ask for help from other countries. In addition to stopping Russia’s expansion plans, the Russians’ crazy self-image as superior to everyone else will be shattered. We may not need to make him understand that, I am torn.
I will try to catch up with the fronts this week but everything is actually going in the wrong direction.
The Russian tactic of sacrificing the shooters so that the Chinese digital battlefield will find the targets seems to be working quite well.
If China gets to choose – do you think they will try to take down Europe and the USA, or will they turn to Russia?
Most likely, they will test the USA and Europe first?
And if that doesn’t work, they will go after Russia.
That’s what I would do.
I believe that China would have preferred to give Japan a proper reprimand. But China has won the economic war against Japan, so I think China will settle for that. USA or Europe? It will probably depend on the current situation.
I was about to forget Russia in the above post. There is a certain ambivalence between China and Russia. The Soviet Union helped the communists and Mao during the civil war against Chiang Kai-shek. But they took large parts of Manchuria from China when the country was at its weakest. If Russia were to lose the war, which I believe, it probably won’t be long before China wants to “discuss” the border delineations in Manchuria.
Japan is the archenemy No.1, absolutely.
China is already in that part of Russia economically and with Chinese people, a kind of soft invasion.
But until it’s obvious that they failed against Europe and the USA, they presumably want Russia on their side?
China is not jumping on Russia, they want a whole Russia that they can control.
But… If Russia were to experience a well-deserved collapse, they would probably take the parts with the most resources.
China can probably help Russia when they want to test Europe and NATO. China would like the USA to deploy some of its forces in Europe, and of course also in the Middle East. Russia, on the other hand, would probably like to see China engage with Taiwan, as this would likely lead the USA to withdraw a lot of its support from Europe. On the other hand, a China at war in Taiwan would likely result in reduced support for Russia from China, so it’s not an easy equation.
China must also consider that any attack on a friend of the West will cause their economy to crash, at least temporarily. However, they have managed to make the West dependent on them in many areas, which is of course part of the plan.
Has it struck you that EVERY TIME Trump is going to try to make a peace deal, it’s Putin who backs out?
It doesn’t feel very coordinated with Putin, does it actually?
Good that Ukraine shrugs and calls Trump a fat orange guy.
I think it’s a well-thought-out strategy. By first pretending to want to talk peace, Putin also gives Trump a reason to wait. Then Putin doesn’t want peace, so he has to slow down, of course. Then it starts all over again.
An interesting strategy for the whole world is laughing at Trump every time, and he gets really pissed off.
The revealing pictures of Melania Trump were also clever.
Since Ukraine is pushing on and Europe is standing with Ukraine, the actual result of Trump making a fool of himself in front of the world’s cameras for the fourth time is quite small.
THERE Jacobus you are where we should put our savings in the next 10-15 years.
European companies involved in this.
I have no savings but you are well-off I guess.
Nice to see some new commenters and some old regulars returning 👍
Yesterday, it seems Fram i Natten had managed to secure both the computer and a bottle of whisky and had a full evening.
Haha. Objection!!!!
I was SOBER 😂😂😂
Today 2 beers and wine….
Haha. Work is consuming me.
Gnu was the kindest thing I’ve heard in a long time…. 😀
Aha, gnu was mostly a collective description and not directed at you at all 😀
(now I’ll have the whole gang after me 😶)
Haha.
Gnu is totally fine.
Slime gnome would be catastrophic.
I repeat what I have said before:
The problem is China, the Russians would not make preparations if they did not know that they have China behind them – in one way or another.
Because, we do not know what China is delivering… maybe 200,000 “North Koreans”… or containers with AI drone swarms… Or how about China considering it necessary to “rescue stranded tourists” back and forth in Europe with the help of special forces…
Russia is a problem, yes. China is the hidden bigger problem, because they are the silent “engine” behind Russia.
And, I could be wrong.
China has historically mainly focused on internal stability. With the exception of some conquests during the Qing dynasty. Since then, they have indeed laid claim to areas they consider historically Chinese, such as Taiwan, Hong Kong, Tibet, but they have not pursued the same imperialism as Russia, UK, France, Germany, for example, have done.
One almost has to be Chinese to understand how a Chinese person thinks, but they definitely have no moral qualms about supporting Russia.
For them, it is almost a given to exploit the situation, they would consider themselves foolish if they did not.
The fact that the Russia-Ukraine war has allowed them to use rare earth metals is like a fried sparrow right into their mouths.
For the Chinese part, they are happy for this war to continue for several more years. While Russia and Europe fight and burn resources, they take the opportunity to strengthen their positions.
They also get to test their military equipment in real combat situations, and they gain unity among the population by being able to show the West as a threat. Plus, they benefit economically from Russia’s precarious situation.
For China, supporting Russia as much as they can under the radar is a given, and they consider us naive if we think otherwise.
Yes!
Chinese and Russians think in THEIR own way… and the West doesn’t seem to have understood…
We are all equally devilish. Unfortunately.
Yes, if it were the case that China wholeheartedly supports Russia and is prepared to not only deliver drones but also soldiers and heavier equipment, it is obviously a different matter.
You are right that Russia probably wouldn’t do anything without their approval if they actually do something.
Now, I’m not a China expert, but I find it hard to believe. It’s not really their method.
They are more long-term thinkers and use trade and economy to slowly try to take over the world, but of course, it may be that the trade war with the USA has made them start to rethink and feel that it’s time to get tougher, that in the turmoil that arises, they are thinking it’s time to attack Taiwan.
Yes, the problem is China, without their support this war would probably have been over.
75,000 tons have been sent from China to Russia, thousands of trains.
Yes, and if Europe and the USA had not supported Ukraine, the war would have ended with the opposite result.
This war is partly a competition for economic and industrial power, who can support their ally to victory without actively deploying soldiers.
We would need to collaborate more with Africa, as there is plenty of everything there. Unfortunately, both the Russians and the Chinese are already there. The Russians through force and the Chinese through economic investments.
Here China draws the longest straw. Which country in Africa wants to cooperate with Europe? None, I would say.
Time for us to speak frankly with China now.
The EU has had two meetings with China in the past six months where China has told us to go to hell.
!!!
STOP BUYING CHINESE CRAP
A rather bad news – RU has figured out how FAB will slide further
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/4049473-russia-launches-serial-production-of-200kilometerrange-aerial-bombs-skibitskyi.html
Positiv – Positive.
Long live no.1. Yes, everyone knows who 👑
Together towards the inevitable total victory.
Don’t forget slemgnom is MINE.
Will slice hen alive into thin thin slices with a dull table knife 🩸
SLOW
🤣🤣🤣
Very thin slices ✊✊
extremely thin molecular-thin slices…
Who the hell wants to eat. Not even single-celled bacteria.
🦠
Probably founders of antibiotic resistance.
😳 Russian soldiers crash into the destroyed vehicle one after another from behind a smoke screen…
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3m3nifhnyl22j
Sounds reasonable when it comes to Trump. In Putin, he sees the person he himself wants to be, a tough guy with absolute power, manipulative and with sharp intellect. Everything that Trump does not have or is.
The only thing they have in common is narcissism and the mentality of a bully.
Has everyone already gone to bed?