The war in Ukraine 2025-10-22

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The war in Ukraine is now on day 1337 and Trump’s latest attempt to reach peace through a meeting with Putin was unsurprisingly canceled. The question is whether Trump will once again just let it pass or if he will eventually follow through on any of his threats. So far, the threats have not been particularly extensive, sanctioning Russia or sending Tomahawks are of course good measures but not war-decisive.
What could actually be decisive is, of course, the threats of sanctions against anyone trading with Russian oil. It would hit Russia’s already strained economy hard if the sanctions are enforced.
The likelihood is somewhat high that it may happen. Trump doesn’t seem to care much about Ukraine, but it is in his and the USA’s own interest to impose sanctions. It will both benefit exports from the USA and prices will rise (the USA struggles to compete when prices are too low). Let’s keep our fingers crossed.

During the night, Ukraine attacked a Russian oil refinery in Makhachkala, Dagestan. I have tried to find information about capacity but there seem to be several in that area. Some small ones with a capacity of ~1MT/year but also a larger one where the information indicates ~11-12MT/year, which would make it one of Russia’s larger refineries. It is also most likely the one that was attacked.

Ukraine also attacked a mechanical factory Saransk Mechanical Plant which reportedly manufactures components for the defense industry (weapon systems).

Meanwhile, Russia continued its drone attacks. So far, there are reports of two dead and dozens injured. They also hit energy infrastructure, and there are reports of 2000 people without power in Zaporizhzhia.

Today, Zelenskyy will visit Sweden according to a tweet from Ulf Kristersson.

Russian losses:

  • 1050 KWIA 
  • 2 Tanks 
  • 11 AFVs
  • 12 Artillery systems 
  • 160 UAVs 
  • 96 Vehicles & Fuel tanks 
  • 1 Special equipment 

SLAVA UKRAINI

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52 thoughts on “The war in Ukraine 2025-10-22”

  1. T23

    Release the Gripens!! 🦅🦅🦅

     

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visits Sweden and Linköping today.

    The visit focuses on the war in Ukraine and the Swedish-Ukrainian defense cooperation, according to a press release from the government.

    In the afternoon, a joint press conference will be held where news regarding defense exports will be presented.

  2. MXT
    AFU reports: 167 combat clashes
    63 aviation strikes
    148 KAB
    4110 shellings (89 from MLRS)
    4488 kamikaze drones
     

    Unusually low number of shells and drones, despite a “normal” number of battles and a normal-high casualty report.
    Wondering how the weather has been in recent days and if it may have had an impact.

    The Russian artillery losses have decreased since April, but they are far from the lowest level during the war.
    The same goes for the reports of “shellings.” They have also decreased recently, but are still far from the lowest level. The seven-day average has been as low as ~2800 (summer 2024) and has also been around 3500-4000/day for shorter periods on several occasions.

    Nevertheless, a downward trend that we hope continues. Perhaps North Korea won’t manage to deliver in time.

     
  4. MXT

    “Ryssland dödade en 38-årig kvinna, en 12-årig flicka och en 6 månader gammal baby i en attack mot byn Pohreby, Kyiv region. Räddningspersonal drog deras kroppar från ett brinnande hus.”

  7. MXT

    Off-Topic, USA – politics – Trump

    Still, a small sign of sanity that this person nominated by Trump is forced to withdraw.

    “One of Donald Trump’s intended agency heads is stepping down from the position after racist messages leaked to the site Politico.

    This concerns Paul Ingrassia, who was nominated by Donald Trump to head the Office of Special Investigations. In the messages, Ingrassia wrote, among other things, that he sometimes has a “Nazi side” and used a derogatory term for black people. He also called Martin Luther King “the George Floyd of the 1960s” and complained that King had been given a national holiday.

    “It should be abolished and thrown down into the seventh circle of hell,” Ingrassia wrote.

    In a statement, he writes that he is stepping down from this week’s Senate hearing and no longer claims the position because he lacks “enough votes.”
    https://omni.se/trumpnominering-jag-har-en-lite-nazistisk-sida/a/B05xdE

    —

    This is sick, and even sicker is that it will surely go through as it is Trump supporters who will make the decision.

    “Donald Trump demands the Justice Department for the equivalent of over 2.1 billion SEK as compensation for what he claims are privacy violations during previous criminal investigations, sources tell the New York Times.

    This includes the investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election and the raid on Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence when authorities were looking for classified documents.

    The newspaper reports that individuals who previously defended Trump or are part of his circle, and now work at the department, may be the ones making decisions on the compensation claims.

    An obvious ethical conflict, according to Bennett L. Gershman, a law professor.

    – It’s bizarre and almost too absurd to believe.”
    https://omni.se/kallor-departement-kravs-pa-tva-miljarder-av-trump/a/XjxjBr

     

    1. CB500four

      Ingrassa should at least get a plus point for understanding to jump off, there are not many of Trump’s appointees who have that.

      Is there possibly no such thing as conflict of interest in the USA? If he succeeds with this, he will run away with a large part of the city treasury if he is to be compensated for every charge brought against him. And when the revolution comes, he will need a separate cargo plane for his money when he moves in with Putin.

       

    1. Norrsken

      I suspect that somehow it’s about oil. India does not want to stop accessing Russian oil at bargain prices, that’s clear, and air defense is an administrative trick to be able to continue with it without risking sanctions. They pay for air defense that they know will never be delivered or at least can be written off from and receive compensation in the form of raw materials.

    1. MXT

      “Sweden wants to sell up to 120 Jas Gripen planes to Ukraine, according to information provided to TV4 News. The information comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky landed in Linköping for a meeting with Ulf Kristersson at the Gripen manufacturer Saab.

      – We will discuss the conditions for major export deals, says Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (M).

      The visit has sparked speculation that Sweden may send Gripen to Ukraine. Zelensky has just come from a visit to Norway, where he met with Jonas Gahr Støre in connection with an increased Norwegian support package for Ukraine.”
      https://omni.se/zelenskyj-landar-i-sverige-diskuterar-stor-export/a/Gyzrpx

  11. MXT

    “The SBU unveiled new modifications of the Ukrainian maritime drones “Sea Baby,” equipped with a gyro-stabilized machine-gun mount featuring an automatic target-acquisition and recognition system, as well as a 10-round “Grad” multiple-rocket launcher.”

    https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3m3row7f57s24 https://militarnyi.com/uk/news/sbu-prezentuvala-nove-pokolinnya-morskyh-droniv-sea-baby-dalnist-ponad-1500-km/

  12. MXT

    Off-Topic, Israel

    “Several hundred prominent Jews demand in an open letter that the international community and the UN impose sanctions on Israel, reports The Guardian.

    “We feel great sorrow that there is increasing evidence that Israel’s actions will meet the legal criteria for genocide,” the letter signed by over 450 people states. They urge the world to stop arms sales to Israel and to put pressure on the country to allow more emergency aid.

    Among those who have signed are former Knesset speaker Avraham Burg, author Naomi Klein, and actress Ilana Glazer.”
    https://omni.se/judiska-profiler-uppmanar-varlden-att-agera-mot-israel/a/wgM3jd

    1. maggan

      Several hundred Jews want Israel to be wiped out from the river to the sea? Because that is the consequence of stopping selling weapons to those who defend themselves against evil neighbors. Allow me to doubt…

      Emergency aid so far at 1 ton per inhabitant since the start of the war, how much do they eat per person in the Gaza Strip? There were no starving children in the pictures when they showed the celebration after the peace agreement, strange, but maybe they didn’t have the energy to go out?

      1. MXT

        Destroyed? Israel is nowhere near risking being destroyed.
        Around two thousand have died incl. HAMAS’ initial act of terror and a number of buildings have been damaged, but there is no risk of annihilation.

        Would like to see a source for them receiving 1 ton per inhabitant? Half sounds more reasonable.

        There is a water shortage in Gaza. On average, it is estimated that a person only needs 3 liters per day for drinking and cooking. Then there are additional needs for hygiene, etc.
        The UN and WHO estimate a minimum requirement of 15-20 liters per day.
        If we calculate with 3 liters and a year, we end up with 1095 liters. That is close to 1.1 tons just in water.

        Of course, there is not a shortage in the whole of Gaza, but a large part of the emergency aid has consisted of water.

      2. CB500four

        Now, it wasn’t an explanation of Israel they wanted, it’s Hamas’s goal. But putting some pressure on Israel to take some responsibility for the civilians whose houses and homes they have bombed is not too much to ask for. Not everyone is Hamas, but Hamas will find it easier and easier to recruit when they perceive that Israel will bomb them to pieces anyway.

        Now, it’s not like I have any sympathy for Hamas, they forfeited their right to exist with the October attack, and should be wiped off the face of the earth. They don’t care at all if Israel kills their people, as long as it also harms Israel, so Israel should try to be a bit more selective in what they bomb, and try to show themselves as the good side, with aid to the needy, etc., but Netanyahu, along with the Israeli right, is not the right man for that.

        1. MXT

          Yes, HAMAS would survive without the world. If it weren’t for them hiding among the civilian population, I wouldn’t object if Israel could eliminate every single one of them.

          What Israel is doing affects civilians to a greater extent than HAMAS and far exceeds the principle of proportionality.

           

  14. MXT

    “All signs indicate that Kristersson and Zelensky today will announce news about the Jas Gripen, writes TV4’s Johan Fredriksson in an analysis. To tease a major export news at Saab in Linköping and then not deliver the Gripen would be a “dereliction of duty by Rosenbad,” so we can expect that at this afternoon’s press conference.

    But there are nuances, writes Fredriksson. Will planes be sent directly? Are the countries signing a memorandum of understanding? Is it about loans, leasing, or purchases?

    Ekot’s security reporter Mikael Eriksson is not as certain. The Gripen planes contain several American components, making the issue sensitive. Additionally, Kristersson recently said that it may be possible to sell the Jas Gripen to Ukraine – after the war.

    – That would be quite a sudden turn in such a short time, says Eriksson.

    A major advantage of the Jas Gripen is otherwise that the aircraft is very “field-like.” For example, it is easy to take off and land on regular roads, as well as to load and unload the aircraft, Eriksson continues.”

    3. MXT

      An agreement of intent has been signed between Sweden and Ukraine.

      This is not about donations, but a long-term cooperation involving 100-150 Gripens.

      It’s a long journey of 10-15 years to build up Ukraine’s air force.

      The agreement of intent does not affect the more urgent support to Ukraine but is separate.

      Cooperation is important not only for Ukraine and Sweden but for all of Europe as it impacts everyone’s security.

      They will start looking at the financing.
      Possibly, Russian frozen assets will be used, meeting about it in Brussels tomorrow.

    4. maggan

      Can’t find the live broadcast? Only three different options where it’s dubbed in Swedish, English, or Ukrainian? Can’t stand listening to someone reading aloud from a script when the real voices are drowned out by the speaker.

    5. MXT

      Zelenskyy was asked about the Gripen in the near future. He did not provide a clear answer to that.

      Ulf said that a first delivery could take place in three years, within this agreement, but nothing is set in stone yet. It also concerns new production, so the door has not been closed to sending existing planes even though there is no decision regarding such a delivery.

    6. MXT

      The agreement and a possible first delivery in three years apply to what I understood as new production within this agreement.

      The door is not closed to sending existing Gripens before that.
      They must have had pilots who evaluated.

      Now it is clear that they are planning to invest in Gripen, so this greatly increases the chance that some will also be delivered in the near future.

  16. johan No.1

    Does Fram still have the ability to speak tonight?

    He probably downed the whole bottle in that Christmas joy 😀

    Fun as HECK that they’re buying jets

      2. Proxima

        I wonder what destination the Gripen plane plus the signal reconnaissance plane had when they flew over me the day before yesterday? On their way down for a layover at an airport near me.

    2. Fram i Natten

      Haha.
      I have a ego that demands more than these kings 👑

      Have lowered half a winner 🥳

      So we and FiN got it right in the end.
      Feels. GOOD.

      Now we will shoot down every SU and Mig 🛩️ 💥💥💥💥

  18. MXT

    It seems that they have already trained on the Gripen. If that’s true, it probably won’t be long before they show up in Ukraine.

    “🇺🇦✈️ Ignat explained why the Swedish Gripen are the most optimal fighters for Ukraine ‼️ Our pilots have already mastered the Gripen. He noted that these aircraft are suitable, firstly, because of the relatively cheap maintenance.

    “There is such a position as a flight hour. How much does a flight hour of Gripen and F-35 cost? There is a significant difference,” he said. Secondly, Gripen is also suitable because it can easily use Ukrainian airports.” https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3m3sc76ccgk2x

    I assume this is Ignat: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yurii_Ihnat

  21. MXT

    👀💥 The Saratov-Syzran highway, an accident involving military trailers transporting TOR air defense missile systems to protect the Engels-2 airfield and the Saratov Kreking Oil Refinery. Two soldiers with injuries were taken to intensive care.”

  22. MXT

    “Swedish defense giant Saab will produce air defense systems directly in Ukraine under the Build in Ukraine program. The 25,000-employee company joins over 25 foreign firms now manufacturing weapons inside Ukraine.”

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