The war in Ukraine 2025-10-23

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Could we finally see Gripen beat the Russians in the war in Ukraine?

Yesterday’s big and uplifting (pun intended) news was of course the collaboration between Sweden and Ukraine regarding the delivery of 100-150 newly built Gripens over 10-15 years. This included not only Gripen but also other cooperation regarding air defense. Of course, one would have hoped for immediate deliveries as well, but I believe the chances are high that it won’t be long. Apparently, Ukraine already has trained Gripen pilots and besides Ukraine benefiting greatly from them, they probably want to test them in a real scenario. Moreover, it would be a great success for SAAB to have them tested in combat.
I guess we will see Gripen in Ukraine within a year.

USA to impose sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil

Finally one might exclaim, now that Trump, after 276 days, is actually doing something targeted against Russia that could benefit Ukraine in the long run. Unfortunately, I haven’t found any information on exactly how the sanctions are intended to be formulated, but let’s hope they are not toothless and have a significant impact. Trump said he didn’t want them to be long-lasting.

Some have praised Trump for allowing Europe to buy weapons from the USA, but there is nothing to praise. Previously, the USA donated weapons worth 30-50 billion USD per year, and yesterday I saw a note that Europe has now bought weapons from the USA for 2 billion USD. This is 10 months into 2025. The advantage, of course, is that Europe is now trying to avoid the USA and is trying to boost its own industry, but when it comes to the prospects of a quick and fair end to the war in Ukraine, it has hardly improved the odds.

By the way, there was an article stating that the USA would now lift all restrictions for Ukraine so that they can strike deep into Russia. It was apparently quickly denied by Trump.

Night attacks

Russia continues its terror bombings, today’s casualty report shows 626 UAVs, which once again is a new record. If Ukraine shot down 626, one can only imagine how many Russia actually sent. I have only seen reports of damaged buildings and fires so far, but it is still early; more reports will probably come during the day.

Ukraine also attacked Russia last night, with mixed reports. Many claim that the Ryazan Oil refinery was hit, others say it was the airport. We will see during the day if more information emerges. Hopefully, it’s both!

Russian losses in the war in Ukraine, day 1338

  • 920 KWIA 
  • 2 Tanks 
  • 6 AFVs
  • 24 Artillery systems 
  • 1 MLRS 
  • 1 Anti-Aircraft system 
  • 626 UAVs 
  • 16 Cruise missiles 
  • 106 Vehicles and Fuel tanks 

SLAVA UKRAINI

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55 thoughts on “The war in Ukraine 2025-10-23”

  4. MXT

    “Will US sanctions on Russian oil companies be effective, and why is Trump imposing them now?

    The sanctions announced by the Treasury will see all assets belonging to Rosneft and Lukoil in the US frozen, while at the same time US companies and individuals will be barred from doing business with them. The measures also include sanctions against dozens of subsidiaries of the companies.

    The US is also threatening secondary sanctions on foreign financial institutions that do business with Rosneft and Lukoil – which could include banks that facilitate sales of Russian oil in China, India and Turkey.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/23/will-us-sanctions-russia-oil-companies-be-effective-why-trump-now

    1. Lynx

      True of our Taco for once. Ukraine shoots wherever they want with their own weapon systems and the USA can think whatever they want about it. Now, Taco doesn’t seem to care particularly, as long as he gets to play world leader, he’s probably satisfied.

  8. iamwhoiam

    Hello MXT,

    Great post, appreciate the new clear structure and the concise main news of the days when the essayist’s yellow walls are absent.

    What I miss when he only posts his posts on substack is a clear connection to today’s comment section on this site (which is also part of the enjoyment). Don’t know what the best solution is though. It’s not difficult to click here yourself for today’s MXT post and subsequent discussion, but it’s not as clear to sit and discuss the issues raised in the substack posts if it’s not sanctioned and the majority haven’t read them or what to say…

    1. MXT

      Thank you, nice to hear!

      I’m considering releasing the posts a little later in the day so that more content can be included directly in the post.
      Johan writes his yellow walls the day before and auto-posts in the morning, but it’s difficult if you want to convey fresh information about the War in Ukraine, so I don’t have that luxury. At the same time, just posting Russian losses feels a bit thin but difficult to do more if it’s supposed to be out around seven.

      Initially, my posts were mostly intended as a backup, so there would be a thread starter on the days when Johan No.1 didn’t have a post. Now that it’s becoming more sparse between his posts, it feels a bit substanceless to repeat essentially the same thing every day.

      We’ll see how I choose to proceed.
      It would be interesting to know if there are more people who appreciate posts in the style of today’s post…?

    2. MXT

      When it comes to Johan and Substack, I agree, it becomes strange to discuss what he has written there on Substack if he doesn’t even post the free part of the yellow walls here on the blog.

      Just starting discussions and receiving comments was probably one of the reasons he mentioned to me from the beginning when he wanted a blog, but everything can change, and from what I understand, he has less time now. 

      If I were to guess, he probably finds it cumbersome to post it in both places, and I also guess that his goal is to attract more paying Substack readers. The chance of that may increase if he posts more content there than he does here. Readers are forced there, and then it’s easier to choose to become a paying member after a while. If one is only interested in the yellow walls, this blog becomes less interesting to visit, which is partly reflected in the statistics, as we may have lost 10-20% when he stated that he would not release all yellow walls for free.

      I have nothing to do with his Substack (and Substack also has some hmm… tax advantages compared to Swish donations), so that may also have some significance. 🤔 😄

      Or maybe it’s just that on Substack, he can avoid me, as I don’t always agree with his analyses! 😂

  9. MXT

    “All EU member states have now approved the union’s 19th sanctions package against Russia, writes Reuters.

    “It is becoming increasingly difficult for Putin to finance the war,” writes EU’s foreign minister Kaja Kallas at X.

    The sanctions are directed, among other things, against more suspected ships in the so-called shadow fleet and also involve a faster phase-out of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG).

    At the same time, the USA has announced that new sanctions against Russia are forthcoming. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky describes the sanctions from both the EU and the USA as “very important”.”

  10. MXT

    Ukraine’s purchase of Swedish Jas Gripen planes could be stopped by the USA. That’s what Martin Lundmark, lecturer at the Swedish Defence University, tells TV4 News.

    The planes contain components from American General Electric, which means that the USA has a veto right when it comes to sales to third countries. Currently, it is unclear how Donald Trump views the deal.

    “He is very capricious and unpredictable and changes his priorities regarding Ukraine, Russia, Europe, and NATO,” says Martin Lundmark.

    1. Lynx

      Sounds good. But this applies in a relatively longer term perspective and the components in question are likely those that can be replaced with others without too much trouble.

      And… Saab also sells unique systems and components to the USA that Sweden can then block if we were to end up in that situation.

      So I guess it’s possible to navigate through regardless.

      1. MXT

        I don’t think it should be a problem either. One would want to sell engines, wouldn’t they, unless they are afraid that Gripen would gain more traction and compete for their customers when it comes to the F35.

        1. N Eklund

          Or less wealthy countries that would otherwise have acquired F16. Gripen has had some success in South America and it seems that the USA has not stopped there

  11. MXT

    Russia has built a sensor system on the bottom of the Barents Sea, located north of Scandinavia, with the help of technology from the Western world. Swedish technology has also been used. This was revealed by SVT News along with a long list of other European media outlets.

    At a depth of 80 meters, the system alerts the Russian defense about what is happening in the sea.

    The system is called “Garmonija,” which means “Harmony.” Russia has previously stated that the system exists, but its location has been unknown. The system is intended to defend Russian nuclear weapons stored in the area from NATO countries.

    “If Russia were to perceive any threat to this, they would act very harshly, decisively, and ruthlessly,” says Niklas Granholm, research director at the Swedish Defence Research Agency.

    The technology was transferred to Russia through the shell company Mostrello, based in Cyprus. When Dutch journalists visited its so-called headquarters, they were met by an abandoned house.

  12. MXT

    Off-Topic, political debate against AI

    One wonders where we are heading. Here, they have allowed an AI to “study” the political opponent, and then they have a debate against that AI publicly when debating against it. If they had used it to train themselves and their arguments, I could understand, but openly conducting such a debate.

    It would be better if both sides trained an AI and they debated against each other. Then it might actually become an interesting debate without mudslinging, filled instead with sensible arguments based on the politics each party stands for.

    “This election just keeps getting weirder and weirder,” Axios writes about the battle to become lieutenant governor in the U.S. state of Virginia. The Republican candidate John Reid debated an AI version of his Democratic opponent Ghazala Hashimi last night.

    An AI-generated debate host in a suit welcomed Reid and the AI-generated Hashimi before a 40-minute debate ensued. Reid’s campaign, which initiated the move, says the screen opponent has been trained on Hashimi’s campaign platform.

    Ghazala Hashimi’s team is critical and says she did not approve of her image and voice being used in this way. The Democrats in Virginia take the opportunity to congratulate the AI version of Hashimi on the “victory in the fake debate”.
    https://omni.se/amerikansk-politiker-holl-debatt-med-ai-motstandare/a/bm3LGe

    1. N Eklund

      I don’t think I would be interested in watching such a debate, but maybe an AI could fact-check various claims thrown out in a debate.

  14. MXT

    Then there is already Gripen available so you don’t have to wait for new production if you don’t want to.

    “Ukraine’s Air Force says not to expect Swedish Gripen jets in Ukrainian skies any time soon. “This is high-tech weaponry, and no country can produce it quickly,” said spokesperson Yurii Ihnat. He noted Gripens are easier to operate and can be deployed from many airfields, aiding survivability.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3m3u4eyccis2o

  17. MXT

    Hope it reaches all the way!
    “⚡ The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee has approved a bipartisan bill that would officially designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism if it fails to return thousands of Ukrainian children abducted from occupied territories.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/united24media.com/post/3m3ufbtpzat2i
    https://united24media.com/latest-news/us-senate-moves-to-designate-russia-a-state-sponsor-of-terrorism-over-kidnapped-ukrainian-children-12751

  18. MXT

    Off-Topic, Trump Approval Ratings

    A little surprised, it has dropped by one percent to -17 (Economist) and -11% (NYT).
    I was completely convinced that it would rise after Trump’s efforts in the Israel/Palestine issue.

  20. MXT

    !! Zelenskyy expects the first Gripen to be delivered as early as 2026.

    “An important meeting with the @SwedishPM  Ulf Kristersson. We greatly value our relations with Sweden and all forms of support for our people. And today, one of the key topics of our negotiations was strengthening Ukraine’s defense capabilities. We consider the JAS 39 Gripen aircraft to be one of the most effective elements of this effort and count on the first deliveries of Gripens already in 2026. We also discussed the situation with air defense and the implementation of the PURL initiative. Special attention was given to Ukraine’s energy sector, with urgent needs arising from Russia’s ongoing attacks on our energy infrastructure.”

    https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1981006215707496902

  22. MXT

    Also thought about that, that he helps to project a Russian threat and scare someone from trying to clean up that sensor system.

    Hmm, can’t someone drop a couple of EMP bombs? Would be nice to see Russia’s surveillance investments thrown into the sea…

  28. MXT

    Off-Topic, Israel, Palestine, and the USA

    “The White House reacts with anger after Israel preliminarily votes yes to annexing the West Bank.

    – If this is a political game, it’s a very stupid one, and I personally feel quite insulted, says Vice President JD Vance according to Reuters.

    An annexation could threaten the peace agreement, says Foreign Minister Marco Rubio according to The Guardian.

    – It’s a democracy, they will vote and have their say. But at the moment, it’s something we believe will be counterproductive.

    In a Time Magazine interview on October 15, Donald Trump said that Israel will lose all support from the USA if they go through with the plan, and that he promised Arab countries that it will not happen.

    The bills on annexation will be discussed in committees in the Knesset and must be voted on twice more to come into effect.”
    https://omni.se/usa-om-annekteringsplanen-dumt-och-forolampande/a/3MlR1A

    1. MXT

      Off-Topic but within the same area

      “A woman is being treated for serious injuries after being attacked by Israeli settlers in the West Bank, reports AP. A video of the attack, which occurred last Sunday, shows the woman being chased by a group of masked men and beaten with a baseball bat.

      Since the olive harvest season began in early October, over 40 attacks against Palestinians have occurred in connection with the olive harvest, writes Haaretz.

      The Israeli military has urged soldiers stationed in the West Bank to protect Palestinians from settler attacks. Despite this, the military turns a blind eye when olive farmers are attacked, several witnesses tell the newspaper.

      – They allow the settlers to do as they please. Burn our cars, steal our olives, and drive us away from our land, says a Palestinian activist.”
      https://omni.se/kvinna-svart-skadad-efter-attack-fran-bosattare/a/vgvw2p

  29. MXT

    “USA’s new sanctions against two Russian oil giants are unlikely to affect Russian military goals, according to analysts interviewed by the New York Times.

    Russian companies have long been prepared for new sanctions – besides, Trump may change his mind, says Tatjana Stanovaja of the analysis firm R. Politik.

    – (The Russians) will shrug and say “okay, he will calm down in three months.” For Putin, this war is existential, and he is ready to endure a lot.

    Experts also note that over the years, Russia has become very skilled at circumventing sanctions with its shadow fleet and through trade with third countries.”

  30. MXT

    Two Ukrainian journalists have been killed in a Russian attack in the city of Kramatorsk, Ukrinform reports. According to Ukrainian authorities, their car was hit by a Russian Lancet drone.

    Journalist Olena Hubanova and cameraman Yevhen Karmazin worked for the TV channel Freedom TV and had been covering the war since Russia’s invasion in February 2022.

    “They worked in the most dangerous areas of Donetsk and were always the first reporters on the scene,” a representative of the Ukrainian military wrote on Telegram.

    According to Reuters, at least 20 journalists have been killed since the large-scale invasion began.

  31. 205

    Well, there were some items on that list that I am skeptical about. However, that part is very short considering the length of the list. Ukrainian SOF in Africa is something I have heard rumors about. Yes, both there in Africa and in the Baltics, full-scale pan-European SOF is in its rightful place. And why not in China? Some Chinese dam constructions?

  34. MXT

    “The idea that [Russians]don’t surrender is really nonsense.A lot of guys surrender” Ukrainian Defenders captured 44-yr-old Viorel Ciobanu,a Moldovan from the city of Florești,who served in the Russian 164th Brigade He said that signed the contract,hoping that his criminal record would be expunged.
    Viorel also added that his phone and payroll card were taken away, and no money was transferred to him. His group of three was tasked with reaching a dugout and waiting for further orders.In the evening, Ukrainian drones struck their position,&of the six people in the dugout, only three survived.”
    https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3m3utvephmk2h

  37. MXT

    Well, here we go again. I suggest issuing a warning this time, and next time, shoot them down.

    “Lithuania’s airspace has been violated by two Russian military aircraft during Thursday evening. This is reported by the Lithuanian defense forces according to Reuters.

    The Russian aircraft were in NATO airspace for 18 seconds. Spanish fighter jets from the defense alliance’s Baltic Air Policing mission were scrambled to intercept the aircraft.

    In a post on X, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda calls the violation an “obvious breach of international law and Lithuania’s territorial integrity.”

    “This once again confirms the importance of strengthening European air defense readiness,” he writes, announcing that the Russian ambassador will be summoned.”

  38. MXT

    More about China pausing purchases of Russian oil:

    “State-owned Chinese oil companies are pausing purchases of Russian oil delivered by sea following the US sanctions against the Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil. Sources told Reuters.

    The information follows Indian refineries, the largest buyers of Russian oil transported by sea, promising a significant reduction in their purchases and a total phase-out in the longer term, according to sources from the Financial Times.

    A decreased demand for Russian oil risks being a severe blow to Russia and President Vladimir Putin’s war chest. The purpose of the US sanctions is to force Russia into a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine.

    Both yesterday and today, the oil price has risen significantly. Around 4:30 PM, the spot price of Texas oil WTI is up by 3.5 percent and trading above $61 per barrel.”
    https://omni.se/kallor-kina-pausar-kop-av-olja-fran-ryssland/a/xm1e58

  39. MXT

    “🔥 Explosion at JSC “Plastmass” Plant, Kopeysk, Chelyabinsk region, – CyberBoroshno One of the workshops engaged in the manufacture and filling of ammunition was partially destroyed.”

  41. N Eklund

    Can also be because parts of the government apparatus are shut down due to the lack of a federal budget in the USA.

     

    Saw a clip from CNN where Trump’s approval rating had increased by one percentage point, so it doesn’t seem to be entirely clear.

    1. MXT

      Yes, it certainly has a great impact! Surely affects many in different ways and if it lasts long, it will hit the whole country with a decreasing GDP (which, however, can partly recover afterwards).

       

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