Trump administration in full swing, 3 November 2026

Zelensky has recently said two things – we are not getting any Patriot interceptors and we are under extreme pressure.

When Rubio was in Greece, it was simultaneously revealed that the US demands that no one with Patriots in their stockpiles gives them to Ukraine, this was a few weeks ago. Some countries have suggested that they should give them anyway as long as someone else does it first – a weak attempt to protest if we ever saw it, and the clock is five to twelve.

The Trump administration has now apparently completely taken Russia’s side and we have only heard part of what has happened, apparently. Now it has come out that they are pressuring the Baltics to tone down their rhetoric against Russia, for example, so there we have the explanation for why the Baltics collectively fell silent and only Donald Tusk remains.

This is at a time when the Baltics have started warning that RU has SOF inside their countries and that the hybrid war has begun to shift from symbolic targets to more direct war preparations.

Then the master negotiators from the US tried during the meeting with Budanov to get Ukraine to resume transit gas into Europe again, which would also be lucrative personally for the Ukrainian delegation, and it is rumored that Budanov got sour.

We should be glad that Budanov and Zelensky exist because when Europe’s politicians largely seem to completely lack integrity and a well-calibrated moral compass, these two by pulling in the same direction have basically saved all of Europe from disaster. Yes, they are not alone and more strong leaders at all levels have managed not to be outmaneuvered or assassinated by the GRU, but it starts at the top and Budanov deciding that GUR would be on the right side of history was as important as Zelensky staying and Zalizhny/Sirsky mobilizing in secret.

Melanie Trump has fronted a ceasefire in Oleshky to save the children there, where Russia instead wanted to transport the children to its own territory in Russia and exploited the ceasefire to move troops and supplies to the front. Now the distribution was 17 buses to Ukraine and 4 with tinted windows (almost completely empty perhaps) to Russia. Says a lot about how much the occupied areas want to be Russian, I think, around 2%-5%, but in the transparent and fair election then it was 90% who chose Russia according to Putin.

The Baltics are now being forced by Trump to open their ports for Belarusian exports – they want the deep port in Klaipeda to bring world peace and all sanctions lifted after a handshake from Trump.

The US has tried with threats of all kinds to force Ukraine not to attack Russian refineries. Zelensky believes this is just the beginning of all they will not be allowed to do, but they refrained anyway as no refineries burned for ten days.

It occurred to me that in 2022-2023 they were not allowed to fight at all on Russian territory and as soon as they did, the US and Europe stopped all support and I really mean all, the artillery went silent. The war simply was not allowed to be fought on Russian soil. We wrote column meters about the 12 military bases just inside the Russian side of the border where vehicles were lined up and then formed into units and drove into Ukraine, if they got beaten they just fled back across the border completely unharmed. There were also airbases and 48 Iskander platforms that lobbed missiles at kindergartens. None of this was allowed to be fought by Ukraine because it could lead to war and no one wanted that, the world must be protected and Ukraine could drag us into a war if they did not behave.

All this in addition to the diesel deal that Trump negotiated which we have all heard so much positive about.

At the same time, Russia is conducting the largest terror bombings of the war against Ukraine and over a month they have sunk or damaged 11 container ships in the Black Sea belonging to us in the West. They have also started Europe-wide revolutionary protests that are very violent.

The protests are far-left groups (officially confirmed by both France and Germany) with a huge attached tail and now this weekend, which is Halloween, it became lively again because unions and other organizations decided to also hold a weekend protest for a change. Apparently, it is okay to work inconvenient hours when demonstrating. France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Greece, and the Czech Republic now have disgruntled school youth together with Germany. The UK has not started yet as far as I have read.

There have been fewer in the Netherlands and Denmark but nothing in Sweden (yet). If there is a Tidö law 2.0, they will start immediately by the way.

Now we are just waiting for the far right and damn religious people who are surely on their way as well.

In the Baltics, Russian SOF has infiltrated across the border and is sabotaging the warning chains against drones or infiltration – cameras, antennas, masts, and other technology. Can you call that anything other than war preparations?

Last Friday, Ukraine completely destroyed the refinery in Samara with about ten large smoke plumes – a very clear message to the Trump administration if we have ever seen one, which was confirmed by the Russians who immediately said that Ukraine openly goes against Trump’s orders.

Then they followed up on Saturday with Ufa and on Sunday Kstovo exploded along with a node for oil pipelines, tanks, and pumps, so a very broad grin to Trump there when fuel prices immediately skyrocketed in Russia.

Now a presentation has leaked from an oligarch who sold the UA war to oligarch pals pre-2022 – it was along the Dnieper from the Black Sea up to Kiev and then straight north to Sumy. The Kherson region, a land bridge to Transnistria, was also included. They actually planned to conquer all industrialized areas and then have a weak puppet in western Ukraine they could control. The buffer zone was probably to not worry Europe too much. So that was and is the battle plan.

For Putin’s part, Trump is probably used up now, he did not manage to slow down Ukraine and he did not manage to control Europe (unless we quietly agreed to a lot but nothing we have heard).

That does not stop the Trump administration from going hard against both Ukraine and Europe if they want, but Putin now knows that the US cannot save the situation as they did in 2022, 2023, and 2024.

There are glimmers of hope – in the US, refineries refuse to buy the Russian dirty diesel and politicians are also pressuring shipowners not to deliver. The Trump administration, on the other hand, is trying to persuade refineries and ships to contribute to eternal peace by buying Russian diesel and breaking a whole battery of laws.

The midterm election should be a veritable slaughter of the GOP but what is really most important to voters in domestic politics in the US – I don’t know. Above all, will Trump care because if he doesn’t, he can create chaos for another two years.

The Trump administration is also trying to get China and Russia on board for Orban to take over at the UN. He would be a brilliant candidate for Secretary-General (they think).

https://www.euronews.com/2026/10/26/trump-officials-back-orban-bid-for-un-secretary-general-wsj-reports

All this in one week so you really understand the seriousness of what Zelensky is saying – the walls are closing in around him and his only breathing space is now Europe. No one else stands on Ukraine’s side anymore and the Trump administration is probably damn angry at Ukraine which, among other things, has managed to maybe make them lose a midterm election. Trump probably feels this is a personal attack on him.

This bombshell from the Trump administration was well-planned, extensive, and apparently what Putin – Trump cooked up in Alaska. Some don’t believe that the US, RU, China are seven steps ahead of us and have solid planning, but they do, at least Trump-Putin.

You know from the posts that RU’s situation at the fronts is precarious and Putin needs an out sooner rather than later. What would save him is another Oleshky ceasefire that is front-wide, two weeks or a month would suffice. Let’s hope Melania Trump doesn’t want to save more children.

Then they can bring up the maintenance and bring in more personnel at critical points. If it lasts longer than that, they can start mining again everywhere and build for defensive combat. In Ukraine, RU has now started going on the defensive, by the way.

It would also have the effect that in Ukraine there would be a huge betrayal debate about why they pause just when things are going well for the first time since 2022. It will be difficult to restart after that and a good environment for Russian subversive activity to thrive in post-betrayal.

A ceasefire would be Europe’s last big mistake before we face 70-80 years of misfortune again – after that Ukraine can no longer protect us and we will be fully affected. Eventually, an unemployed and betrayed defense force will turn against us, if not otherwise through the underworld inside the EU.

If Russia does not collapse inward into civil war and power struggle, they are quite comfortable with a continuous low-intensity war against Europe as long as their leaders remain and the right successors take place. The situation would then become quite similar to the Cold War and the Soviet Union; if one is conspiratorial, one might feel that this is what RU is aiming for here.

So far, it seems that with democratic means in the West, the course can be changed, but the Trump administration has started doing as they please on certain issues; the points above they push despite massive political and civilian opposition, completely without consequences.

In Europe, the worst offenders like Orban and Vucic in Serbia have also been voted out, but there is probably half a quarrel before the meetings in many parliaments and governments around the EU now, which in my opinion gives peripheral issues more space than the acute war threat from Russia.

Belgium’s government is about to fall, by the way.

https://www.politico.eu/article/belgian-government-in-crisis-over-failed-budget-talks

The pressure is enormous – now Poland has been forced into an undemocratic measure where Tusk will probably have a hard time. The Supreme Court was dismissed but it did not go as he thought. One must not judge too harshly as Poland and the Baltics are under existential pressure, but if a single piece of information emerges that the EU has assisted in anything, this will explode.

We have reasoned a lot about how we would act in the event of a conflict with the Baltics in the absence of governments or with political deadlock – becoming tougher on Russia today is a very difficult decision to handle, and preferably waiting and seeing seems to be the prevailing policy of weak politicians.

Those of you who have read Johan No.1 know that there is an enormous amount that has been politically and diplomatically locked for a long time but politicians have been afraid to draw Russian wrath, both personally for their careers and for the country. Then it becomes chaos on the streets and political deadlocks, we wrote a lot about. Now today you see how something like that would look or how – this was our reasoning, it had merit, now it remains to be seen if our governments hold together. We probably get some momentum from Putin souring on all of Europe at once – we are stronger together than if one country at a time is singled out and the others don’t need to care. Now everyone has the same problem at the same time.

But when we stand there one morning after Russia has dug in along the entire Daugava overnight and the first Polish mechanized brigade that tried to cross the river and retake the terrain has been drone-bombed to atoms – will it then be politically easier to make a difficult decision when we simultaneously follow the Geran clouds with our gaze as they head toward our LNG storage, transformers, and heating plants in Western Europe?

Because RU now manufactures thousands of Geran and missiles per month thanks to China having built up their production lines. It is obvious that we lack defense against ballistic missiles for several more years because our production is maybe 1:6 of the Russian. We can counter the Geran drones with advanced aircraft, but the FPV drone weapon that is front-near, we probably have no direct defense against yet for a while.

This is countered with deep minefields and buried infantry, but we don’t have that either in eastern Baltics. The Baltics are to start building a bunker line now but not between Rezekne and Tartu, which is where RU will attack.

Because that is what will be on the table – a surprise attack before the Baltics have mobilized, where the drone weapon plows the way and SOF infiltrate deeply with fire ambushes on all roads eastward.

Recently, the Danish battalion commander said that if small green men come, the Danes will fight with the Baltics – this gives us a unique insight into what we in the West actually expect first because that is what has been communicated to the Danish battalion commander.

Something the Russians should have learned after 2022, and they know just like us that Europe did not see the buildup as an acute war threat, and that is why we fooled Zelensky, an honest mistake – what would then be smarter than not building any capability against the Baltic border at all but having it fully mobilized at the northern border to Ukraine instead, 10 hours driving time away. Now they have this capability right there and everyone says there is no war threat – so far it has worked perfectly for them.

We have problems with electricity supply and fuel in Europe, somewhat on the edge, and if we get disruptions this winter in electricity transmission or gas/fuel storage by means of explosions, we will have a full-fledged electricity and fuel crisis in Europe. This is therefore nothing we can do anything about, but we need to trust that Putin does not do anything he would not risk actual consequences for.

Because has anyone of you heard that we openly accuse Russia of the forest fires last summer or the Marxist revolutionary violent school protests?

A series of unexplained fires in LNG storage, transformer stations, and some severed underwater cables we will not declare war over either.

If we try to reason about how Putin thinks here since everything is actually up to him as we are reactive and will declare war only when the Russian bastards are apparently at the Elysee Palace –

His war in Ukraine is at best a delaying battle now, he cannot advance on his own but he can retreat as slowly as possible. If you lose 10 times more soldiers than the opponent while retreating, you do not win. Ukraine now has the strategic initiative and controls more fronts than not.

If he manages to politically bring down Ukraine or get the EU to stop supporting Ukraine, the situation will improve for him, so that is probably a priority in what he is doing.

Since Trump partly failed at this despite nearly two years of persistent effort, and also managed to politically sabotage himself, Putin will probably have to resort to somewhat harsher means of persuasion against us in Europe, since this level did not yield the desired result.

The pressure in Ukraine is already at maximum – assassination attempts are pouring in, opinion formation, bombing of electricity supply, heating and water, and continued attempts at wild offensives combined with disrupting supply chains at all borders. There, Russia is doing everything it can below the level of tactical nuclear weapons.

School protests have been a modern classic since 1968, and it would be malpractice not to use them. The attempt to politically lock Europe is running at full throttle.

Besides that, disrupting our electricity production and fuel supply now that it is getting cold is a very low-hanging fruit that almost touches the ground. If Putin doesn’t do that now during late autumn and winter, I will close my account and start growing olives.

At the same time, through various channels, Putin is surely promising Europe’s leaders right now that everything will end as long as we stop supporting Ukraine. Probably there will also be an offer of a broad ceasefire to save the children, but not before things get tight. And then attacks continue on all levels against those who have taken the lead in criticizing Putin; if they have any skeletons in the closet, they will be exposed.

So far, the attempts are probably mostly to get us to support Ukraine less by increasing the level of violence against us. At this stage, it could expand to attacks on critical manufacturing just like Ukraine does.

Some engine part or chip that all drones or missiles use, manufactured in a single factory in Belgium, for example.

Apparently, our domestic ballistic interceptors are like that – one factory per critical component, so one fire accident in a factory hall is enough to make them only 99.9% completed and they won’t fly. We had a post about that and why it was not possible to scale up production – there were bottlenecks throughout the production, and since the report described it in detail, Russia also knows the addresses of those bottlenecks.

Since it is Russia we have against us, they will escalate until they either get what they want or become terrified of strength and start screaming that they are the victims – it is in their DNA to do so, and the last three hundred years the cycle has looked exactly like this.

They have absolutely not given up on an invasion of the Baltics, and it is part of the plan but must come at the right time. I am beginning to feel more strongly that the Baltics are the next step and not very far away, by the way.

First – think like Putin, what is the worst outcome of an invasion attempt of the Baltics that goes wrong?

We will run over Kaliningrad and bomb the Baltic Fleet in addition to his invasion force being forced to flee the field defeated.

Anything else?

I don’t think we will start long-range strikes on targets inside Russia permanently after that because we don’t want Russia to long-range strike targets inside Europe permanently after that.

That is all he risks, and we will not be able to annex Kaliningrad if there is de-escalation later on, so he will get it back then.

That’s how Putin thinks.

Putin does not want a united Europe and the EU collectively declaring war on him; that would counter his purposes. It would be difficult to manage if today we flew the Supreme Commander’s heavy club against all targets we can reach deep inside Russia.

However, a highly active hybrid war or a war in the Baltics that we do not go into full conflict over is probably comfortably within what he considers manageable.

Unfortunately, we are soon in a situation where there is so much chaos in Europe that beyond hitting Kaliningrad and the Baltic Fleet, we will not do much more if Russia takes all terrain north of the West-East river Daugava.

After we have lost a couple of mechanized brigades and it turns out we could not shoot down many Gerans or missiles, we will be stuck with a fait accompli and it will be a conflict we cannot handle other than to fortify the area south of the Daugava river and wish all Balts north of that line all the best and prosperity.

Now, four landing ships have moved out materiel from Kaliningrad and are anchored off Poland. “Landing in the Baltics,” you are screaming now, but I have probably unconsciously tricked you because these are large ships and not Ropuchas or Alligators.

Those would be suicide to send against the Baltics; they are also only protected by an escort. They probably have to be removed before Putin comes up with something, but if the escort were to be expanded with the entire Baltic Fleet, the situation would of course be different.

https://tvpworld.com/96189744/russia-loads-military-gear-in-kaliningrad-bound-for-libya

It is not unlikely that they are heading to Africa, but why Kaliningrad is being demilitarized is something you should probably ask yourselves instead.

I can only think of two alternatives: either they do not intend to escalate against Europe, or they realize that Kaliningrad will be overrun early in an escalation and are saving the materiel. If you have the same low IQ as Johan No.1, you think this move came after Europe made a huge show of force against Kaliningrad recently and that we solemnly promised to roll over Kaliningrad if Russia rolls over the Baltics.

Kaliningrad has not been reinforced with materiel; otherwise, we would have heard about it, and the army corps in Ukraine that is based in Kaliningrad has taken a lot of materiel from there. Now they are moving out four large ships with materiel, which reasonably means empty warehouses in Kaliningrad now?

This is at the same time as they have replenished with T90M and BMP-3 in the depots along the Baltic border and against Finland.

You also understand that if they are stockpiling T90M and BMP-3, they have already resourced the strategic offensive reserve that is not in Ukraine. If you doubt that, you should remember the post where we went through how the Rosgvardia has now formed a number of regiments that have received exactly T90M and BMP-3. They are also not first on the list to be newly equipped.

Russia is currently massively strengthening its position in Africa – nothing good will come from that, and it is a strategic move to build influence in the Mediterranean. Above all, they then have better control over state-supported trafficking/migration into southern Europe, which is the only route still open. Spain, Ireland, and the UK are wide open.

Not everything is bleak.

China’s stock markets are blood red, and the housing market has already deflated – the government is buying support with its dollar reserves to stabilize the markets.

MXT at johanno1.se has also reported from Gnesta that Xi Jinping does not intend to discuss the Ukraine war with Putin and Trump – it is Europe’s war, so Europe can discuss it as they see fit. You probably have to take that with a grain of salt, but at least Xi Jinping is thinking about optics, which is good.

This is good because China is Russia’s most important ally, but it also makes China unpredictable – will they quietly collapse completely or become aggressive? They are approaching the point where they must make their tough decisions, and it is no secret that strong leaders look towards war to solve tricky domestic political crises. Xi Jinping has, in any case, now fired the entire top military leadership except for 1-2 people, so a major reshuffle has already taken place.

We are constantly moving closer to a bright red global conflict, and I am starting to be overwhelmed by all the information coming in across all areas. Just this post contains eons more information than when one sat writing about the battle in Bakhmut in 2023 and tried to stretch it into a whole post. Then the month’s highlight was when Ukraine entered Kursk and had materiel for weeks.

Generally speaking, it is becoming very chaotic; finance Twitter is crying over the beginning implosion of the AI bubble now. We have political deadlock, Denmark had it recently, Spain has a new election, Belgium has fallen, and in Poland, they are firing the Supreme Court.

The school protests are increasing like a spear and have spread like the plague.

By the way, I saw that three out of four of the British nuclear submarines are at sea – this is not the normal state at all.

Many are stuck with their slice of the problems and cannot handle the whole picture, and we lack an umbrella overview with associated coordination. There are many who believe Europe has an all-seeing eye, but we do not. The intelligence services must get the armed forces on board, who must get the politicians on board, who must get public opinion on board, and so far that has not happened.

Now, 70 “generals” from Germany and the Netherlands were in the Baltics for a reconnaissance because they have plans for an army corps there in the future – that is how far we have come. That army corps would already have rolled into the Baltics if you ask me.

If Russia is now on the verge of collapse as some believe – why are they building up strongly in Africa?

If Russia no longer has redundancy, which means they do not have the capability to attack the Baltics, how could they recently hold a military exercise with 45,000 troops, and how can they stockpile T90M and BMP-3?

My impression is rock solid that Russia is now increasing the pace in the steps they intend to take beyond the Ukraine war. Ideally, they would have first won in Ukraine and then continued with these, but now they do not have that luxury, and the misery in Ukraine has accelerated the timeline.

Never forget that according to Budanov, Russia is ready to jump on the Baltics in 2027.

The only thing that is not working for them urgently is the Ukraine war, but it is not unreasonable that they are playing for time there to manage other things in a multi-stage rocket with the goal of first isolating Ukraine and then continuing.

May we get a sensible government fairly soon in Sweden; now I see the light because the Social Democrats have all along worked against getting the final vote, which seemed to be a smart move. Then everyone would be afraid of a new election, and both the Left Party and the Centre Party would back down and vote in favor of the Social Democrats. They have also gotten this, and the Speaker has not maneuvered to give the Moderates that chance.

But that was only until the Speaker now forced the Centre Party to a vote, and then it is up to Ulf since the Social Democrats already had their first attempt.

Now the Sweden Democrats have announced that they can abstain from ministerial posts and the Centre Party that perhaps a Tidö agreement is acceptable after both the Social Democrats and the Left Party have essentially refused negotiations.

You will not have to wait very long to hear that it is a threat to democracy that the Social Democrats did not get the third vote. Since the Speaker is a Moderate, this is then to benefit the Moderates and as close to a coup as legally possible, and it is everyone else’s fault.

Everything happening in Europe is connected – riots and revolution in the streets cause economic uncertainty, which causes downgrades and higher interest rates, which means less money that can result in reduced support for Ukraine. A conflict in the Baltics would probably only fuel the downward trend.

For the US, this is probably good right now – capital has started fleeing the eurozone to the US because of the riots, and when the stock markets fall, everyone rushes to American government bonds, which then pushes down their interest rates for US citizens at our expense.

It does not help that several countries in Europe have terribly mismanaged finances, our industry is outcompeted by China because our electricity prices mean we cannot sell our products at a competitive price, and that we have so many new people that we borrow for welfare commitments, but broad layers still seem so dissatisfied that they take to the streets and want a revolution.

We in Europe probably have crisis interest rates to look forward to, I guess; in 2008, that exact phenomenon occurred where interest rates ran uncontrollably in European countries that were insolvent.

Pretty much exactly what we predicted here in our posts with a black financial swan, right, and that the US does what is good for them – the US is, just like the bank, not your friend.

Now, I had actually thought that the black swan would be a Russian conflict zone in the Baltics, but they have gotten serious momentum in the school protests, which seem to work just as well to scare away the fickle capital.

A little electricity and fuel shortage on top of this, and 2008 will be overtaken for us in Europe.

Finally, the “sell USA” threat is probably eliminated because as soon as someone sells dollars and their government bonds, there is a long line of terrified buyers ready to snap them up immediately.

If you ask me, part of the Trump-Putin deal was precisely this that the US needed Russia for, so that there would not be a “Sell USA”.

Anyway, since Putin only backs down from strength, this will escalate until we choose to stand up, and you have all read the posts over time. Now the only difference is that we have come to the beginning of this, or at least the beginning for us when it now hits us all at once. For Ukraine, this has already been going on for 4.5 years.

A very coordinated attack on Europe this is, and we must hope it goes better than during WW1, WW2, the Cold War, and 2008.

Don’t forget the paid subscription on Substack now, I am trying to prevent a new COVID pandemic, but it is expensive to save the world, and this time it is the black plague from Russia that has escaped from a laboratory in Yakutsk that needs to be fought, so almost worse than last time it happened, and that time I did not succeed very well.