You are being fooled into thinking that there is movement because all the leaders met in Albania and talked to Trump on the phone. Looked cheerful 
Trump has been a bit too vague in the aftermath of the peace negotiations in Turkey, even for Trump in my opinion.
And JD Vance has met Zelensky – they seemed to be laughing together this time, surprised that Zelensky didn’t strangle Vance, but that’s how it was.
So, Russia has staged our intellectual elite trio and Trump, once again, in the stands, and announced that they will soon come up with a great counterproposal for peace in our time if we just wait a little longer.
Because there is quite a lot you are not seeing right now – drone swarms from Ukraine, blown-up Russian refineries, knocked-out combined heat and power plants, new attack wedges coming over the northern front, and all that stuff that gets us excited.
I don’t think it’s very conspiratorial to suggest that our great leaders in the West have asked Ukraine to show some restraint so that Putin will agree to negotiate for eternal peace.
Yes – those of you who have read these posts know that Ukraine is getting everything they ask for right now. There are miles-long heavy transport convoys with all imaginable vehicles on their way to Ukraine, so the West is definitely preparing them for offensive operations.
But UA will also be able to handle these offensive operations.
And the willingness to help is not there with us, so if Ukraine loses the war – then they will likely lose the war without our brigades fighting against the Russian bastards.
Moreover, Putin planned to test-fire an ICBM to add a little extra threat, but like the last 2-3 times, it went very Russian and nothing happened.
Today is May 20th and the middle of September is Zapad25, four months away.
It’s quite obvious that Putin is buying time, isn’t it?
Furthermore, the major summer riots have already started – those that are supposed to keep us fully occupied along with the wave of sabotage and power outages.
Belgium and France are very lively right now, and all over Europe, exactly all groups will demonstrate for their core issues this summer.
I don’t think Europe is ready, but I hope I’m wrong.
The signals I think we are getting from Ukraine are that they will assist us if things get really bad, so the worst-case scenario of Ukraine becoming passive is unlikely to happen – provided they don’t succeed in assassinating Zelensky, of course.
Poland will probably face major protests from the presidential election, and in Romania, the loser is warming up and has declared themselves the winner.
At the fronts, Ukraine is constantly retreating, even if only in meters, but you don’t win wars by retreating, do you?
Ukraine has now started evacuating the area southeast of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, as well as Lyman, so they expect an offensive in that area.
According to previous reports, it is a twelve-pointer for RU to take all the terrain east of the Oskil River, and they are now trying to advance in the area north of NW of Toretsk.
Since there is still great uncertainty regarding the Baltics, why I don’t understand, I summarize the situation –
-RU is playing peace negotiations but playing for time. They have shown zero interest in negotiating for peace.
-they have prepared for a summer offensive in Ukraine and have a strategic reserve against the Baltics according to Ukraine.
-Zapad 2025 is in mid-September and will be held in the Baltic Sea area and the northern fleet.
-RU is concerned about Russian minorities in the Baltics.
-RU has declared 25 locations in the Baltic Sea as “enter at your own risk” from this summer onwards.
-India – China is underway.
-Iran seems to be choosing war.
Since the beginning of the year when Trump took office, we have seen a significant global escalation, and one can suspect what lies ahead.
It is now quite clear that Trump has changed his mind, but one can also guess what the plan looks like.
For China, Russia has always been a “diversionary maneuver,” which Russia does not see itself as at all, of course.
China wants Europe unlocked and frozen in Europe if possible, and Russia has tried to influence what they can, they have tried sabotage against our power infrastructure and other sabotage.
The next step is to open a conflict in Europe that we have to deal with because then 99.9% of our focus will be on that.
I also believe that North Korea’s 11th AC is on its way to take up defensive positions along the northern border with Ukraine.
China seems to have enlisted – Nepal, Bhutan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Bangladesh against India, and they are currently claiming to be the rightful owners of some border province.
And a month ago, there was a major exercise against Taiwan where they practiced amphibious landings and targeting all types of objectives.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/31/china/china-taiwan-military-drills-hnk-intl
There is also some truth circulating on Twitter that Chinese equipment emerged victorious in the Pakistan – India aerial battle. If true, it should be a positive sign for China to perhaps test their capabilities.
In any case, China has a huge number of robots aimed at targets in Taiwan, a presumably good drone weapon from what I can gather, a few thousand aircraft, +700 ships.
They also have missile artillery that can surely reach the mainland of Taiwan by many hundreds, and they are attractive because they cannot be fought in the air, even though attempts will be made to strike the platforms.
They now have some major fleet exercises per month that they will continue with, and at some point, that exercise will turn into a real situation and invasion – the latest exercise involved 70 aircraft and 25 ships or thereabouts.
I also believe that China has been early in adopting drone technology, and below is a mothership drone with long-range capabilities that can release 100 autonomous suicide drones, for example.
Now I was going to go through Taiwan’s defense forces and was a bit surprised
“The self-ruling island nation of Taiwan has approximately 1,000 tanks in its arsenal, but many are antiquated vehicles dating back to the Cold War. These include American-made M24 Chaffes, M41 Walker Bulldogs, and M60A3s, as well as the Taiwanese-made CM 11 Brave Tiger tanks”.
Their F-16s seem to be modernized, they have 1200 coastal missiles, Patriots and Nasams, and seem generally well-equipped with these capabilities, but the number of missiles is not the same as the number of platforms, and when this starts, they will probably have to fire what they have in the tubes before being detected?
https://www.warpowertaiwan.com
Chinese radar covers the entire island.
It is a small island and can only have so many prepared alternative firing positions for its LV, coastal missiles, etc., and China will probably target all three immediately?
And now to the new challenge even for Taiwan –
I get the feeling that China is far ahead on the drone curve, but in a few years, it will be leveled out, and then Taiwan will have a million suicide drones, kind of, that make any type of invasion by sea impossible.
The attractive thing about the drones is that they are not a ten-million-robot on a 50-million-expensive platform.
They have small launch ramps that can release a large number of autonomous drones, cost nothing, and are available in hundreds of thousands – impossible to combat.
Then there’s the U.S. – they probably have their CAG in the South China Sea and aircraft in Okinawa, Japan, South Korea, but not in the Philippines from what I read.
The Okinawa aircraft are directly exposed to LV from the Chinese mainland, the same if they fly from Japan or South Korea. I will come back to the F35 below.
China also has coastal missile batteries and LV on the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, so the CAG should watch out.
I guess submarines can be hidden in the deep waters southeast of Taiwan?
Right now, a lot of the U.S.’s various capabilities are mobilized to the Middle East to teach Iran a much-needed lesson, right?
Considering that drone technology is advancing rapidly and the U.S. is producing 150 F35s per year, which are a threat, the window of opportunity is reasonably now, right?
Europe is also currently fully occupied with doing nothing in the Ukraine conflict.
And the U.S. will punish Iran fairly soon.
In terms of the window of opportunity, it’s now and not later for China – suddenly in 2025, it happens.
Regarding Russia, I must willingly admit that I thought they would reach a low point until Trump took office on January 20, and that they needed a ceasefire, a breathing pause.
There were quite contradictory signals in 2024 and older equipment, but we got an early scent of the strategic offensive reserve and have handled it as appropriate.
What worries me is that besides that, the Russians have prepared for offensive operations in Ukraine – my assumption was that they would try to hold on to the territory in Ukraine, but they apparently believe they can handle a two-front war.
And they have shown absolutely no interest in negotiating peace – they are very Russian in their negotiations right now.
Tanks, IFVs, artillery, LV, etc. are produced in hundreds per model from what I understand, but nothing is sent to Ukraine.
In Ukraine, they receive T62s and old worn-out guns.
So it’s the strategic reserve that has about a thousand new tanks, a few thousand IFVs, artillery, and LV. Presumably, they also have a well-functioning drone weapon; otherwise, it would almost be a dereliction of duty. They are said to be 150,000 in number and possibly another 60,000 from the northern front if North Korea’s 11th AC takes over guard duty.
Newly formed units have been built around veterans, and the training must have been from veterans of the war so the entire force understands warfare in 2025.
What worries a little more is that Russia produces 1400 + 500 robots per year, and they haven’t fired many at Ukraine, right? Almost as if they are saving up for something 
The Iskander platforms have not been used by Ukraine throughout the war, so it would be somewhat ironic if they were turned against us instead.
If we think that for China, it’s a diversion and for Russia, it won’t lead to worse consequences than having to retreat from the Baltics in the worst case, and war will still happen – this type of risk-taking and going all-in is very Russian, right?
When it all unfolds, Europe is unlocked – we will be in endless crisis meetings for weeks, discussing every word to be included in the protest letter to Putin.
(Do you remember when Kier Starmer blamed that he had sent a letter by post to France regarding whether the UK could use Storm Shadow, but France hadn’t responded by post yet?).
Trump has already unlocked much of the U.S.’s capabilities against Iran – whether intentionally or not, I dare not say 
After all, he has been on a significant peace mission in the Middle East, so it seems to me that Trump no longer wants to be a pawn in Russia’s and China’s game.
China is gearing up against Taiwan, and THAT will be a metal chew we haven’t seen before, but China only gets one chance, and the only chance to win is to overwhelm Taiwan.
Probably, the only way for them to succeed is to have a medium-sized exercise that doesn’t signal immediate war for Taiwan and the USA, and then have the rest ready under the pretext of it being an exercise and sneak in what they can.
They need to target as many objectives as they can with the initial force and will incur astronomical losses in the first wave but will likely land some SOF and lighter units in various places. The force needs to eliminate the air force and coastal missile batteries – then the main force can sail in.
China has built many new types of ships in recent years; it wouldn’t surprise me if these are motherships for mothership drones, kind of.
https://www.twz.com/news-features/new-chinese-mystery-flattop-emerges
Shortly before the invasion during the exercise, they will sneak LV and missile batteries here and there on suitable islands in the South China Sea, and their submarines will head out into the Pacific Ocean, presumably?
The Russian Pacific Fleet should also have a major exercise towards Japan.
China must also understand that when it starts, it will be significant, so they probably try to land on as many islands as they can around Taiwan during the invasion so that Plan B would be to at least have taken Penghu initially – Xi needs something so he doesn’t get ousted.
The USA doesn’t have many fixed missile batteries with the range to Taiwan, and their CAGs are likely high-value targets, they probably know that.
The F35 is quite central here – I read that they have a maximum range of 3000km, including the missiles; are they visible on radar or not?
They can carry 2 air-to-ship missiles per plane, but the USA has 600 of their F35s and so many air tankers that it will make you dizzy.
China says they can see F35s and B2s on radar – the proof is in the pudding
The USA has 20 B2s, and they can reach all targets in China undetected, it is said, and each plane can carry 16 missiles, so they can launch a salvo of 300 missiles in total.
The B52 can carry a missile with a range of 1500km, and Chinese fighter jets can actually reach them with their range plus the missile. The USA has 300 Reaper drones, but they are also easy targets.
And even some of China’s LV missiles have that range.
My conclusion must be that China has a window of perhaps 10 hours at worst from when they press the button until the B2 salvo arrives, or the F35s from bases in the USA or Europe arrive through air refueling.
Timing is everything here – ideally, they probably want the B2s to be used against Iran simultaneously so there will be significantly fewer of them.
The main force will probably take 1-2 hours to reach Taiwan, and by then the first group must have neutralized the coastal missile batteries and the air force enough so the main force can begin landing.
All troops landing will have forward observers with access to missile batteries and artillery pieces located on the Chinese mainland + the air force to engage targets, and they will need a high level of indirect fire support.
Taiwan’s missile batteries and air force will be fully targeted on anything floating around the island, so China’s indirect fire from the mainland will be able to operate undisturbed.
The first force should have attempted landings around the entire island at different locations, but the main force will only have time to land from the Chinese direction.
It is possible to land around the entire island, according to Google Maps, and Special Operations Forces (SOF) should also be landed on a large scale from submarines, for example, and fishing vessels attempting to rush to the coast in distress?
There should be container ships in all Taiwanese ports with Chinese SOF and lighter units, maybe even mechanics?
There should be SOF on all regular flights landing within a short time window, but that is a bit tricky because it could provide advance warning if they do not blend in when boarding the flights in China, or if they are sneaked into the cargo holds perhaps?
And then the last point – all the sleepers in Taiwan who are supposed to try to blow up mobile depots, shoot politicians, officers, and pilots, but they must not start too early…
Taiwan has 35 brigades, not a huge SOF presence, and 1.69 million reservists.
What China must do is to conduct effective pre-battle preparation because without ammunition for the brigades, they won’t get far.
Something they should also do is to sneak SOF close to the air bases the USA plans to use and take out the planes during takeoff – their stealth capabilities won’t matter then, and they can be located anywhere as long as they can reach them during takeoff with MANPADS.
One thing that has been warned about for quite some time now is that “Chinese crew cut military age males” have arrived as asylum seekers along the Mexico route into the USA, but they disappear immediately.
They probably need to do something like that if they are to have a chance of success and it doesn’t just become the biggest ship-sinking operation in history for Xi.
I believe China’s window for this adventure is this year.
Oh, and North Korea will also open up at the same time, but they will not attempt to invade South Korea.
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https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social
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Good morning!
Russian losses in Ukraine 2025-05-20
Incredibly low armor losses despite the relatively high intensity at the front.
Are they saving them for a future offensive, or are they starting to run out of them?
SLAVA UKRAINI!
Continued lower level KWIA seen maybe 12 months back. A little rebound in the rear. But bare scraped armor, again. This while today’s report talks about rearmament in the Baltics with, among other things, armor. One question directed at the report is the buildup of strategic reserves including armor a way from RU
to throw an ace into the sleeve regarding negotiations around ceasefire in the war in Ukraine.
But then we have the mile-long deliveries of materials through Europe as a response to that card.
“Analysts agree that Monday’s phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin was a great success for the Russian president, writes the Financial Times.
The call did not result in anything more concrete than Putin promising to produce a memorandum as a first step towards a peace agreement.
– No one knows what that means, why it should be produced, and what it should lead to, says a Ukrainian government source to the newspaper.
https://omni.se/vanskaplig-ton-mellan-putin-och-trump-ingen-ville-lagga-pa-telefonen/a/gwl4LA
“Trump believes in peace: ‘Putin wants to end the war'”
Donald Trump remains optimistic after today’s conversation with Vladimir Putin. During an appearance in the Oval Office, the American president says he believes that Vladimir Putin has “had enough” of the war in Ukraine.
– I think he wants to end the war, says Trump.
https://omni.se/trump-tror-pa-fred-putin-vill-avsluta-kriget/a/0Vd3dB
Carl Bildt: ‘Capitulation on Trump’s part’
Carl Bildt is critical of Donald Trump’s stance on ceasefire talks. After today’s conversation between the US president and Vladimir Putin, the former prime minister writes that Trump now seems to have accepted Putin’s desire for “talks first and peace later.”
In an interview with Ekot, Bildt elaborates on his reasoning and emphasizes that he does not believe Putin wants a ceasefire in Ukraine.
– This was somewhat of a capitulation on Trump’s part, which unfortunately paves the way for a longer war, he says.
https://omni.se/carl-bildt-kapitulation-fran-trumps-sida/a/8qMR8w“
A portrait of Ayatollhan:
https://youtu.be/GBvfiCdk-jc?si=MH3uhJiPUB5l_TmD
“Nearly 56,000 residents evacuated from Sumy Oblast, additional efforts ongoing, governor says
In recent months, Russian troops have significantly increased the use of guided aerial bombs as well as attack drones near the border areas of Sumy Oblast. Most recently, Russia has been deploying small assault groups to infiltrate the region in a bid to expand the front line.”
When the war in Ukraine is over, Finland expects that Russia will significantly strengthen its military forces along the Finnish border. This is reported by the New York Times, which has analyzed satellite images showing that Russia has already begun the rearmament.
Finland’s assessment is that it would take Russia around five years to build up a force that could threaten NATO.
Simion clearly admitted defeat. Admittedly, there has been talk among his supporters about election fraud.
“Far-right candidate George Simion admitted defeat in the Romanian presidential election last night, just hours after claiming that election fraud was behind the victory of EU supporter Nicusor Dan.
– He won the election. It was the will of the Romanian people, says Simion in a video post on Facebook.”
You can be kickbanned if you continue like this
.
Someone has to fact-check the content!
(In)correct. We have one less country to worry about within the EU.
Yes, it was extremely nice, looked a bit rough for a while.
Jo changed after the post was finished
Does it go as far as the blogger describes it?
Then Finland is likely to cut off the road to Murmansk fairly quickly.
After that, all forms of Russian maritime traffic are likely to be shut down between Sweden and Denmark.
Then our submarines will play sink the ship in the Baltic Sea.
The Norwegian navy will play awkwardly with the Russians in the Norwegian fjords.
Kaliningrad will, according to the old-fashioned Swedish battle plan, be visited by our air force.
The Baltic countries and Poland will take care of the ground operations there afterwards.
But all this starts with a “Perkile now we take Murmansk.”
The rest of the EU has no choice but to follow suit.
No self-respecting country wants to stand still and watch when the Finnish wagons start rolling towards the White Sea.
Finland has confiscated Russian assets for a day now to build up its capacity to manufacture ammunition.
https://www.defmin.fi/en/topical/press_releases_and_news/finland_to_supply_ammunition_to_ukraine_by_using_proceeds_from_frozen_russian_assets.15035.news#f6f483ac
By the way, the European people have spoken about the Israel-Palestine conflict in the Eurovision vote.
It was a significant middle finger to the establishment.
Upward in total in Pokrovsk where there is high pressure. Decreasing in Kursk, low again.
combat engagements were recorded over the past day. 
167, 145, 165, 168, 163, 166, 155, 161, 196, 193, 196, 171, 200, 269, 253, 216, 199, 199, 177, 178, 168, 174, 156, 175, 168, 144, 165, 96, 127, 162, 143, 125, 111, 99
6, 3, 5, 6, 3, 4, 7, 3, 3, 6, 4, 11, 18, 4, 5, 5, 6, 8, 2, 2, 9, 6, 0, 0, 0, 4, 4, 0, 1, 2, 7, 1
2, 1, 4, 4, 1, 2, 5, 2, 3, 3, 4, 6, 3, 5, 7, 6, 6, 5, 6, 9, 7, 3, 4, 5, 4, 1, 3, 2, 1, 7, 11, 4
Update as of 08:00 20.05.2025 on the Russian invasion
In total, 177
#Kharkiv 3
#Kupyansk 3
#Lyman 23
22, 24, 17, 16, 24, 29, 20, 25, 8, 17, 27, 24, 21, 31, 22, 16, 27, 27, 36, 21, 18, 20, 22, 19, 15, 20, 14, 25, 12, 14, 17, 20
6, 10, 4, 3, 5, 3, 6, 8, 4, 8, 5, 6, -, 0, 3, 3, 1, 4, 2, 4, 6, 2, 3, 5, 8, 12, 3, 2, 3, 2, 2, 2
9, 8, 8, 8, 4, 4, 9, 10, 6, 10, 5, 4, 10, 6, 8, 6, 6, 13, 10, 16, 13, 8, 13, 1, 6, 4, 5, 7, 6, 8
11, 14, 19, 8, 18, 6, 9, 6, 12, 15, 9, 13, 8, 6, 16, 7, 8, 4, 10, 6, 14, 9, 29, 16, 17, 13, 23, 10, 18, 26, 11
#Siverskyi 4
#Kramatorsk 6
#Toretsk 13
#Pokrovsk 72
65, 54, 52, 75, 74, 54, 60, 70, 60, 65, 71, 61, 77, 78, 115, 78, 113, 83, 64, 85, 75, 59, 64, 68, 44, 65, 56, 53, 61, 39, 54, 64 According to preliminary data in the 22-report at 59 combats, 128 occupants were neutralised in this area, 74 of them irrevocably. Ukrainian troops also destroyed one satellite communications terminal, seven vehicles, four motorcycles, 16 unmanned aerial vehicles of various types, one electronic warfare station and a mortar. Three armoured combat vehicles and one mortar were severely damaged.
#Novopavlivka 22
24, 23, 18, 23, 26, 30, 24, 13, 19, 31 , 28, 32, 23, 24, 52, 66, 23, 15, 16, 13, 23, 13, 13, 19, 10, 15, 17, 19, 5, 12, 9, 9
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 13, 0 , 0, 1, 1, 2, 7, 5, 0, 6, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0
2, 7, 2, 3, 3, 3, 6, 6, 2, 6, 3, 7, 4, 14, 3, 3, 5, 4, 5, 0, 5, 1, 4, 4, 9, 3, 5, 3, 4, 3, 3, 1
1, 2, 0, 1, 1, 5, 4, 1, 3, 6, 5, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 1, 5, 1, 1 , 1, 3, 1, 0, 2, 0, 0, 0
#Huliaipil 0
#Orikhivsk 4
#Prydniprovsky 1
#Kursk 10
18, 14, 13, 14, 9, 12, 9, 8, 25, 19, 19, 19, 11, 18 23, 23, 20, 33, 21, 25, 15, 23, 15, 30, 27, 26, 22, 21, 16, 20, 23, 21 In the Kursk sector, Ukrainian troops repelled ten militants’ attacks yesterday. The enemy also carried out 14 air strikes, using 32 guided aerial bombs, and fired 227 times, seven of which were from multiple launch rocket systems.
hit three areas of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment and five facilities of the Russian 
invaders’ missile troops and artillery.
Over the past day, the missile troops and artillery of the Defence Forces
Thank you! A few more clashes at Pokrovsk.
Thank you 205
Thank you #1! With front reports and information about materials in deliveries spanning miles on the way to Ukraine. An interesting Chinese attack that you portray. While China is the origin of the Sun Tzu military school (if this should not *well* be attributed to Taiwan where the Chinese monarchy fled during the cultural revolution) and also in its northern part *well* has origins from those who have been involved in driving the Mongol Empire, China of today has not really conducted any military campaigns, right? One misses, if we look at the last centuries, the experience that several European countries, the USA, and Russia have gained through countless wars they themselves initiated. Do you consider China a fully-fledged war machine capable of taking Taiwan in front of its allies in the West? Or allies? Hasn’t Trump expressed something along the lines of Taiwan being a kind of “special interest”? Which, in itself, it is not if China is considered the main adversary.
In the India-China war, Afghanistan, Nepal, and Bhutan have thus sided with China in a border region. Afghanistan, with its stock of American military equipment left behind by the USA, is a major factor. This is also a neighbor to Iran, which can thus join the war by land.
Ah, so we are supposed to be nice to Putin so that he doesn’t get angry and choose to continue waging war?
“Trump said he would not impose new sanctions against Russia because “there is a chance” for progress, – CNN. And a few more of his statements:
But there may come a time when it will have to be done”;
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lplg5hr4dc2e
1. Either he is stupid and doesn’t understand that it works exactly the opposite.
2. Or he owes Putin something (or there is compromising material).
3. Most likely he wants to make big money on deals with Russia and doesn’t care about anything else.
4. He deludes himself into thinking he can get Russia closer to the USA and away from China (then point 1 applies at the same time).
He Is a Great Master Negotiator (note the spacing). The kakistocracy is celebrating new triumphs.
The funniest thing in this misery, however, is that Europe is believed to have made Trump suggest the Vatican as a peace mediator (with a Pope made in the USA at the helm, one must assume).
Considering Moscow’s (and the Moscow Orthodox Church’s) attitude towards the Catholic Church, it’s a bit amusing if it’s true. It basically guarantees that “peace negotiations” will not take place and at the same time confirms our expectations of maga as completely uneducated and almost uneducable.
Considering how many seasons Jerry Springer could run his talk show…
There are probably plenty of stupid MAGA supporters.
https://youtu.be/ksCGu56Ue8Q?si=KHi6FbBQ0cqHRUsC
Damn, I’m getting so tired!
The excuse all along has been that one doesn’t want to push too hard because it would “escalate the situation,” that’s been the USA’s excuse all along.
The idiocy that is added now is that people still believe that Putin wants peace! When will they understand that this is not the case? Putin does not want to back down, he cannot back down, his whole “credibility” with the Russian population depends on this mess. He has no way out.
Either you give him a way out conditioned on a bunch of demands that must be met, or you escalate the hell out of him so that he is forced to back down. Arm UA to the teeth!
Japp
.
I’m starting to lean towards the fact that Putin has actually spun him.
He did quite a lot correctly in MENA recently.
And he has been tough on China.
It’s probably almost impossible to know, the guy seems to be easily manipulated. Next time he talks to Graham or Zelensky, he’ll change his mind again.
In essence, Trump has a fetish for macho men with power, and an overconfidence in his own abilities, which Putin exploits to the fullest. He is also lacking in historical knowledge, does not take advice from people he considers to be in a lower position, or who do not flatter him as he believes he is entitled to. Additionally, he has surrounded himself with yes-men.
I believe that in the beginning of Trump’s presidency, it was no. 4 that motivated him to talk to Putin.
Now I think it’s no. 3 that motivates him the most.
And no. 1 is what makes him not understand that he is being fooled time and time again.
“Ukrainian air defense—including aircraft, air defense units, EW systems, and mobile fire teams—intercepted 93 drones (35 shot down, 58 jammed) out of 108 launched.”
“Hungary has left the ICC
The Hungarian Parliament has now voted for the country to leave the International Criminal Court (ICC), reports Reuters.
Orbán has previously stated that the ICC “is no longer an impartial court, a court of law, but rather a political court.””
https://omni.se/klart-ungern-har-lamnat-icc/a/ny20qB
“Trump reverses course: Halt on Norwegian wind power park lifted
Donald Trump changes his mind and gives the green light for the Norwegian Equinor’s wind power investment in the sea off New York, writes E24. The wind power park called Empire Wind was halted in the middle of April by the USA.”
Some antennas that are aimed at Trump Tower can certainly eavesdrop.
They probably think they can negotiate their way to Greenland now (until they realize that Denmark and Norway are different countries).
“Trump: I have a red line in my head on when I’ll stop pushing on Russia-Ukraine. I won’t say what that red line is.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lpllefm6522e
Can we hope for a heart attack,
The only red line he has in mind, which he doesn’t want to say what it is, is the marks from the gagball buckle!
“Destruction of Russian personnel shelter, a communications antenna, two ATVs and infantry in the Kursk region by “Steel Border” brigade!”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lpllt5z6bk2r
“En flygattack mot ryska positioner, – 30:e mekaniserade brigaden.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lpllbx7lps2r
“On the Kursk front, the “Steel Border” brigade of Ukraine’s Border Guard struck Russian forces. Over the past day, Ukrainian forces destroyed Russian personnel shelter, a communications antenna, and two ATVs.”
“A sniper from Ukraine’s E40 group disabled a Russian MT-LB armored vehicle from a distance of 1.7 km using a Barrett M82A1 rifle. Precision that makes a difference.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lplkr22l6s2s
MT-LB breathes quality and overwhelming military capability.
Sweden has donated eight self-propelled artillery systems of the Archer type to Ukraine, and they have been put to good use – to the extent that the gun barrels are starting to wear out, writes SvD. The newspaper has visited the 43rd brigade at the Pokrovsk front, which uses Archers. “The Russians are well aware of these. When they know that Archers are firing at them, they panic,” says battalion commander Volodymyr. So many shells have been fired that according to Swedish protocols, the gun barrels should have been replaced long ago. Lacking alternatives, the soldiers continue to use them, albeit with noticeably poorer accuracy. The Ukrainian army is now appealing to Sweden for more Archers, or for repairs and replacement of the gun barrels. In March, the Swedish Defence Materiel Administration announced that 18 new Archer howitzers will be delivered starting next year.
If Sweden continues to place orders for 10-20 pieces at a time, it will take a while.
“Today the
European Union will adopt the 17th package of sanctions against the 
Russian Federation – Estonian Foreign Ministry It will target the shadow fleet and revenues from the Russian energy trade.”
Later this week, another tanker is expected to transit Estonian waters en route to Russia. The LPG tanker FALCON is showing Cameroon as its flag via AIS — but S&P global confirms it has no valid registration.
https://bsky.app/profile/maritimekiwi.bsky.social/post/3lplm3hmdvs2p
Should Sweden/Denmark dare to stop it when it passes through the strait or should the focus be on the dance band tax and leave the responsibility to Estonia?
Place a torpedo in it.
Now I may be wrong (I hope I am right) but I think you are quite pessimistic regarding the wars China-Taiwan and US-Iran.
China: I have been wrong before, never thought that Ry would even consider invading Ukraine but oh how wrong I was. It was a naive thought that Ry would lose so much (economically), lessons learned are that history and politics outweigh the economy. Similarly, one can understand China’s need for Taiwan, Xi has probably stated that before he dies Taiwan should be a part of China. However, I think you underestimate Taiwan’s defense capabilities. A country with such modern technological industry would not have more drones, not have better weapons? I don’t believe that – I think Taiwan has a huge number of drones and for China, a air/sea invasion would cost an incredible amount.
Another factor: China has a very large problem with its population, the country’s population will collapse if nothing is done. The country has gone from a one-child policy to a two-child policy to a three-child policy and now the authorities actively call women of childbearing age to ask when they will have children? Abortions have been practically banned for the average woman, contraceptives are limited, and sterilization of men is probably prohibited. In 7 years! the birth rates have practically halved, from 15.4 million births in 2018 to 8.8 million in 2024. The trend has stalled but still another 100,000 fewer children are expected to be born (8.7 million children) in 2025. The number of marriages continues to collapse, in 2024 6.1 million couples got married – a decrease from 7.7 million in 2023.
Starting a war and risking losing incredible numbers of men (and women for that matter) probably in childbearing age) with this data in mind? If no changes are made, the birth rate will probably collapse/halve from today’s level by 2045.
Iran: To understand the Arab world (and what is happening in the oil industry) I usually listen to Anal Alhaji. His latest YouTube video has a message: regardless of the American president, the US does not want Iran to succeed with (if so) nuclear energy. If they succeed with nuclear power, oil and gas will be released that can be exported and the regime/country will get resources/money. The US does not want Iran to export as the regime will weaken. I find it hard to believe that Iran, with an incredibly declining attendance in mosques, has an interest in war. The rhetoric is probably to encourage/incite the most conservative part of the population.
What would the US gain from attacking Iran? Probably Israel/US will fight nuclear facilities but I find it hard to believe that as the situation is now, the US or Iran would go and attack.
Baltic States: I know you have written a lot about Ry’s invasion of the Baltic States but I find it hard to believe. It would undoubtedly open a second front – does Ry have the ability to fight and secure oil exports through the Great Belt? Now I don’t know how much of Ry’s oil goes through the Great Belt but I would think a large portion does.
If Ry attacks the Baltic States, the EU or Nato for that matter will never survive. Hungary and Slovakia will never contribute troops, I would think that these 2 countries would be completely cut off from the rest of the EU in that case. What happens to the regimes in these 2 countries in that case given how dependent they are on the EU (money)?
I would think that Ry is busy with Ukraine, to even dare to risk and challenge Poland/Germany would be very foolish behavior by Putin – I think he realizes that himself, especially when one robot after another fails.
I have been wrong but I hope I am right this time. I think many leaders, including Putin himself, undoubtedly have a number of “lessons learned” on what can happen if you start a war.
Yes, we have to hope so, but the West must plan for it.
The Ukraine war is ongoing and a new war between India – Pakistan, and that war probably took everyone by surprise.
Trump has 300,000 in the MENA now plus all B2 + a couple of CAG.
Xi has asked the military to prepare to attack Taiwan.
The problem with a Putin-type despot is that they automatically continue to start wars – always moving forward.
7 October was Russian as well.
The Houthis have fired at more than 300 ships.
Forgot that RU has also cut 11 sea cables in the Baltic Sea
We all know that Putin is bluffing with the peace negotiations, unfortunately the Trump administration is well aware that China (and Russia) have effectively outperformed the USA (and Western Europe) both in terms of rare earth metals / critical infrastructure metals such as copper, and also in manufacturing.
I listened to a podcast the other day where the Chinese strategy was thoroughly described. Up until 2016-2018, the Chinese had a real estate investment boom; billions were poured in and banks (regional banks and governors) were tasked with mortgaging the properties. With the onset of the previous Trump administration and the beginning of a trade war, the Chinese policy shifted; money was redirected from real estate investments to industrial investments, something that China is reaping the benefits of today. China has clearly surpassed the West in all aspects of manufacturing, not only being cheap but also high quality. For example, it’s now being reported that Ford’s CEO stated that Chinese cars have higher quality than their American counterparts, which probably made the Trump administration a bit uneasy.
This year’s largest IPO has also taken place, CATL – a pure battery player that supplies, among others, Tesla. It was introduced on the Hong Kong stock exchange, already listed on the Chinese Shenzhen stock exchange. I’m not sure if Westerners were allowed to participate in the listing, but I would be extremely surprised if they were.
What I wanted to get at: Will Putin dare to attempt peace if 1 million (or however many troops he has in Ukraine) were to start storming home? How many of these soldiers will pose a significant threat to the current regime? If these soldiers’ friends have died / been seriously injured “in vain”? When the relatives of fallen soldiers realize the immense costs in terms of human lives – will the leadership dare to bring them back to Russian soil again?
I believe the above questions are just as crucial for a future peace.
Tim Cook responded to Trump’s demand to bring manufacturing back to the US by saying it’s not possible.
Because only China has the right technical expertise to produce their phones and a sufficient number of workers with the necessary experience.
I thought Putin wanted peace to buy some time, but he’s not interested – I think that’s clear?
Putin and his circle probably can’t end the war – then the balloon deflates.
Someone on another blog wrote early on – “Russia can only do one thing, when they don’t succeed with the level of violence, they increase the level of violence until they either win or implode.”
Yes – I was reading about that too, and Trump was also targeting China during Trump 1
I have seen some movies on completely automated factories for missiles/robots.
Yes – everything is done for a purpose but it looked quite advanced.
And it is a fact that they are spitting out millions of electric cars BYD annually which is an ok car.
They took over the market in solar cells.
High-speed trains.
Read Trump’s tweet about his epic conversation with Putin.
Trump is fooled by Putin was the immediate feeling. He doesn’t understand the context.
Now it’s of course the US again that doesn’t want peace, what did we say
Blown, why would Putin lie about Melania, it’s obvious that Moscow admires her body
.
Even the actress in Red Sparrow has a nice body
Vladimir Putin’s conversation with Donald Trump was a great Russian success, write regime loyal Russian newspapers the day after the phone call on Monday, reports BBC’s Moscow correspondent Steve Rosenberg. After the call, Putin announced that he had agreed to start drafting a memorandum on a potential future peace agreement. “This way Russia gains time,” writes Kommersant in its article. The newspaper adds that Putin claims to be satisfied with the call. “Of course he was. It went his way.” A Russian political expert tells Izvestija that Putin continues to oppose a ceasefire unless it is preceded by Ukrainian compromises and concessions. “That actually says it all,” says Steve Rosenberg in the report. Russia is ready for compromises and concessions as long as it is Ukraine that makes them. Russian media are ecstatic about how Putin has managed to maneuver Trump.
No worries, within the next 10 years Trump will probably have realized that Moscow does not want peace.
When even Russian newspapers write that Putin is playing for time – then maybe he is?
He does. Nothing has changed fundamentally, Moscow’s economy is falling apart. The sad part is that it has probably gone so far that the war economy cannot be terminated without their economy collapsing and having a near-death experience. Continuing the fighting despite the absence of strategic gains may then be the least dangerous path right now. Dealing the final blow probably requires even tighter sanctions and for the USA to at least growl threateningly in the background as Europe begins to board the shadow fleet.
Trump and mini-Swullo Vance are just babbling nonsense right now, and of course Moscow keeps going.
Putin is terrified that the war will end and he won’t be able to celebrate a grand victory. Moreover, losing to Ukraine would probably be more humiliating than the regime can bear.
A bit far-fetched perhaps, but since Putler knows he won’t get his victory, and still seems to respect NATO, maybe he, to save face, wants to lose to an opponent he respects.
Blown, why would Putin lie about Melania, it’s obvious that Moscow admires her body
.
Here is a good read about the latest Chinese exercise – not sure if Taiwan’s airspace is the same as the territorial water boundary but Chinese aircraft were well inside it anyway.
Then there was live ammunition, and they practiced targeting in Taiwan.
The exercises are not announced in advance, and they have exercises all the time – not long ago in Australia.
So, China is extremely aggressive in the area.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/01/china/china-taiwan-drills-live-fire-escalation-intl-hnk
This “These drills happen so frequently they’re now like a daily routine,” said Lin, a man in his 50s.
The exercise was 2025A
Trumps main fuse
!
Taiwan is the most export and import dependent country in the world. If something happens, it will probably be primarily a naval blockade. Before that happens, they probably want to lure the American fleet to another part of the world.
Estonia says they can mobilize 44,000 troops in the shortest possible time and “which other country in Europe can do that.” There won’t be a huge number of soldiers in the wilderness in SE Estonia.
So Estonia is not very big.
No, but they have almost all their defense in northern Estonia.
Good, I have some assets in Tallinn so they should not release it for any pine planting in the southern part.
Elon Musk and Donald Trump were like hand in glove, but now the billionaire and Tesla CEO is hardly mentioned at all by the president. This is written by Politico, which has mapped Trump’s mentions of Musk on social media. On Truth Social, Trump has not mentioned Musk in over a month, a clear departure from earlier this spring when Musk was always mentioned every couple of days. Politico writes that the difference “is remarkable.” From Musk being in the Oval Office with Trump, he is now also almost completely absent from official documents.
Tesla’s stock price has risen by 43% in the last month.
I wonder how Doge is doing?
Demand for Tesla vehicles has already turned up. That’s what Elon Musk says during a visit to Doha, writes Reuters. According to the electric car manufacturer’s CEO, it is only in the European market that Tesla is struggling, everything else is going strong. He also announces that the plan is to stay in the CEO position for five more years – unless he dies.
https://omni.se/a/o32Vx0
Those of us who had hoped he would go to Mars will have to be patient.
That Elon would quit was widely known – don’t know if that was the intention from the beginning or if it became so after a few months.
Trump did some stunts to help him but now is that transaction complete?
Elon is best off keeping quiet politically and focusing on his businesses has probably been many people’s advice to him
Varit tyst om Doge ett tag
Great work by @USPS on their contract review. 8,639 contracts were reviewed, resulting in the cancellation or modification of 1,076 contracts with $188.5M in savings.
This included a $791k contract for “Negotiation Skills Training” and $100k for “CIO All Hands Meeting –
https://x.com/doge
They apparently have a website that they update. Not sure if it’s so successful to discontinue training in negotiation skills. I often think that’s where the Swedish administration falls short and that one is often too naive.
I scrolled through the list and they seem to be saving quite a bit, maybe that’s why we don’t hear much in Sweden, it’s simply going better than expected even though they’re advancing like a mower.
Maybe:
They made the tough decisions first. Musk has been involved before when it comes to saving. Now all other savings are going through without making headlines.
Russell Vought takes over after Elon Musk
#Project25
https://www.svd.se/a/73vB9W/russell-vought-takes-over-doge-after-elon-musk-wrote-project-2025
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lpm3vqij3c2s
Not the usual messy look?
If we are to be serious now, or can one be when she makes such a silly statement.
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lpmonk5yg22l
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/capabilities/missile-defense/golden-dome-missile-defense.html
It feels like Trump is repeating history, first a reverse Nixon/Kissinger and then he will add a touch of Star Wars a la Reagan.
Hasn’t he stolen his slogan from Reagan?
The point towards China this time?
French Caesar howitzer helps Ukrainian soldiers defend their homeland.
https://bsky.app/profile/united24media.com/post/3lpmlji6uso2e
French high tech probably ended with the three musketeers.
Light years after Archer.
Well, better to have a bird in the hand than 10 in the forest. Incomprehensible that Sweden produces the world’s best artillery piece and accepts that it happens at the same pace as an average glacier moves.
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lpmjquaikk2o
Proposes that a price ceiling is also introduced at my local gas station.
But now that the oil price has gone down, the price ceiling on Ural should also follow suit.
It’s moving a bit on the Russian side.
Have they perhaps started their offensive?
A little interesting about China!
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/01/china/china-taiwan-drills-live-fire-escalation-intl-hnk