Lions
https://x.com/ukrainiansquad/status/1886815340706845108?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Let’s start with the obvious – Ukraine has initiated an extremely violent strategic bombing campaign against Russia, and in January 2025, 2/3 of the 30 largest refineries were visited by UA drones, with several of them ceasing production altogether.
What we don’t know is how many of these refineries resumed operations during the previous campaign, but most likely, RU managed to repair most of them. Despite spare parts flowing in from the West through -somewhere, and the West buying RU oil and LNG throughout the war, they also had dollars.
But now it seems to be over, as yesterday a rumor surfaced (at best, maybe SALTINT is better) that all geographical restrictions on Western weapons are now lifted.
We could assume that after the election, the bans on Ukraine to target the oil industry gradually disappeared, as they have now severely cut off oil exports.
Not to mention all the oil depots, I can’t keep count, but there are many.
Zelensky has been a valuable source of information throughout the war, being allied with the West and not the adversary, so when he says something, it carries high credibility.
Mango-Mussolini has now strongly announced that he is considering exchanging rights to natural resources for supporting Ukraine to a win. Since most resources are in Eastern Ukraine, the logic then follows the 1991 borders, right? And Ukraine probably wouldn’t trade anything for less than that.
Zelensky now informs us that this has been in motion for a long time.
And for those following the world’s best news anchor, you may remember that in September 2024, when Zelensky sought support for his peace plan, one of the offers to Trump was that the US would have first dibs on natural resources.
So Trump is simply following something Zelensky offered back in September 2024, but it sounds like he has now come up with it all by himself, shining star that he is 🤣
Does Ukraine need Trump’s support?
Questionable, I would say, but of course, they must be able to fully trust the EU, and I don’t think Ukraine is that naive.
Is this an outrageous move by the US?
No, if they help Ukraine regain the 1991 borders, and the US has already put in a lot of effort, it’s not entirely unreasonable for them to have the right of first refusal on what they wish to buy, right?
Because ultimately, it’s all about the US buying, investing, and gaining rights, which will greatly benefit Ukraine’s economy.
So I think this would be good, and it’s something Ukraine itself proposed to Trump earlier to pique his interest.
Will it work out?
Lavrov lightly refers to Trump as Hitler.
And Peskov says that Russia is ready to negotiate, against the backdrop of burning refineries 🤣🤣
As a EU citizen, I can’t help but feel that the EU should have been much quicker to act, as we should ideally want to align Ukraine with us, having also provided them with significant support. It would be a bit disappointing if the US snatches all the benefits post-war after we’ve done roughly the same?
But historically, the US has had a certain knack for steamrolling over and getting what they want…
Right now, I feel it’s pointless to try to understand Trump at all – If he actually goes through with trading support for findings, Putin will block him on WhatsApp as revenge.
I have a feeling that Musk has long been in the Russian pocket – they probably have enough compromising material to bring him down.
So let’s leave that mess for a while and focus on the UA war and the fronts we haven’t visited in a while, with the observation that Trump is making many enemies right now –
The other front up in Kursk is holding, and RU has currently decreased intensity in the area, and the North Koreans are withdrawn – I don’t see Kursk falling anytime soon at all.
In Belgorod, I can’t see anything other than that Ukraine plans to retake the area at the very least, judging by the number of brigades and their bite.
In the Kupiansk pocket, it seems like UA has reinforced, and if the rumor from the other day about them receiving drone units is true, UA probably won’t let go of that pocket, which is quite incredible. The units in that area have been fighting with virtually nothing for a long time.
To the south of Kupiansk, they won’t give up either, but I don’t see any significant buildup of forces directly, although RU is said to be in poor condition there, with 1st GTA attacking as infantry in soft vehicles, for example.
Chasiv Yar and Toretsk have fallen, but Kostiantynivka will be the next town to defend.
Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar (where I now understand that UA is outside the town, not in the town, so Deepstate is correct) don’t look very good.
However, UA has a forest of elite units in the area and will conduct a costly delaying action against the
Bluesky, Substack, and the website will suffice as channels in my opinion, and now it’s an okay process to post on all of them without completely wearing me out.
A bit sluggish with all the images to make the post reader-friendly, but it is what it is.
It’s absolutely incredible that Ukraine has been able to carry out a strategically decisive bombing war potentially capable of winning the war just with cheap drones, essentially.
During WW2, massive bombing fleets were needed for this, and in, for example, the Gulf War, or the RU attack war of 2022, it was aircraft and missiles.
Israel fought Hamas and Hezbollah with JDAMs, which are probably cheaper but the carriers are very expensive.
Ukraine has achieved the same results with autonomous, cheap, mass-produced drones at low cost.
We all know that when history is written, the USA will be the ones behind all the clever ideas, but for me, the direct involvement of the West in this war has been almost fatal, and what UA has come up with themselves has been spot on, with a high probability that the drone weapon was Ukraine’s idea that they pushed hard for themselves, even though the West stood by laughing and thinking they should buy more aircraft from them instead.
It’s a constant game of whack-a-mole with stacks that, when aligned correctly, become a win – capability, quantity, countermeasures, and a mix of abilities that, when everything is in place, are unstoppable.
This is where we are now in 2025 in the strategic bombing war, and Russia is completely unable to defend itself. The only thing that could make a difference is if China provides ENORMOUS amounts of LV across the entire surface of Russia, but they haven’t done that so far, and the war is being won now in the year 2025.
Someone rang the gong that RU lost the strategic bombing war already in January 2024, and it still stands 👍
-positive-positive, therefore.
Glömt inte att donera, Ukrainas sak är vår! Stöd Ukraina!
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Sharp and accurate as usual!
I don’t understand how you manage to find the time?
Exciting to see the increasing house of cards vibes over RU and a less regulated UA on the rise 😀
It’s important to hustle at work ✊
The website gives me some stress though because it’s directly tied to how often I post – Bluesky and Substack work a bit differently.
I haven’t decided yet if it was a good idea or not but missed a decent comment section which MXT has built here with its black magic.
I find it interesting that there are fewer red and yellow cards for Ukraine because that’s the kind of thing that has presumably changed in recent weeks, right?
Or that it was instigated by Biden and Trump let it through.
Glimmering! Whatever you do, keep going with this website! Informative, easy to read, great comment section, etc.
I understand that time can be hard to come by sometimes, but you’ll just have to fake some more stomach problems…
Bsky is all well and good, but it’s not easy to read there…
If the website is “quiet” for a few days, so be it. Don’t let it stress you out, Johan No.1.
Let the website be your and MXT’s own forum, as it was intended. Those of us who read the website are still “everywhere” and probably more loyal than you think…
I agree, it’s better that you write here as time allows than shut down the site. Your “yellow walls” are highly appreciated and well worth waiting for. It’s informative and also fun to read with a bit more personal reflections on things, and I believe I’m not alone in that opinion.
I actually don’t think RU has anything on Musk, he’s too rich to care. However, he is so disturbed and greedy that he would do anything to increase his own wealth and power, thus acting as a useful idiot and running errands for the Kremlin.
If the USA now makes a deal with UA regarding metals and other things, how will RU like that? Firstly, the USA will get their hands on what RU wants, and secondly, NATO/USA will come even closer. I think it could be very tough for RU and Putin! Incredibly tough!
When it comes to Musk, his rhetoric is straight from the RU checklist, and most recently he was in Germany to support Afd.
Similar to my concerns about Scholz taking an interest in things only Putin cares about and shouldn’t otherwise know about.
Musk – German opposition are quite far apart.
Similar to what Trump was up to before the election but no longer does.
But yeah, I also wonder if it’s just a line the super-rich billionaires push sometimes 😀
Oh my God, if the US goes in and snatches Ukraine from under Putin’s nose, it’s worse than Ukraine joining the EU almost 🤣🤣
That’s the absolute last thing Putin wants, but he’s weak, so what can he do?
We don’t want the USA to get all the credit and favorable deals once the war is won. There’s a lot to gain in the long run if Europe gets its act together and solves this on their own. It’s dangerous to give the oligarchs in the USA more power than necessary.
Yes, I would like to see Ukraine join the EU instead and for us to get all the huge benefits from them.
But if we’re not quick enough, the USA will surely snatch everything, kind of their thing 😀
👍👍👍
– Help, I’m drowning, can you throw the lifebuoy over here!
– Nah, I might need it myself.
– But you can have my wallet.
– Okay, by the way, is there a lot of money in it?
– Yeah, there are a few thousand bills at least.
– Alright then.
The idea of bribing Trump originally comes from Zelensky (at least officially), but it’s still extortion and pure mafia methods.
I also think it can be seen as a sign that Zelensky is a bit desperate and nervous that Europe won’t provide more support if the US backs out (I would be, at least). Perhaps he is most afraid that the US would choose to support Russia instead of just withdrawing aid. Bribing Trump may very well be completely necessary to win the war, not just to receive weapon deliveries.
Regardless, I think it’s insane that it should be necessary.
BUT with that said, the main thing is that Ukraine is satisfied with the deal, and so far they seem positive.
By the way, I hope it’s Trump who puts the agreement together and that he includes the exploitation of rare earth metals in it. Because if there are any natural resources that Ukraine doesn’t have much of, it’s exactly that. 😂
(Trump is clueless, no wonder he has done so poorly in business)
One can also wonder how things will go after the war. Ukraine will need a lot of support for rebuilding. If Trump doesn’t want to release weapons and ammunition without demanding something in return, he will hardly want to contribute to the reconstruction either (without making further demands for natural resources or other benefits). There is a high risk that it will end with Europe, which has already given Ukraine significantly more than the US in actual money, having to take care of it and at the same time being deprived of any potential construction contracts, etc., while Trump builds golf courses and luxury hotels in Odessa and Crimea with Europe’s contribution money.
Looking at the total support (financial, humanitarian, and military), the US has fallen behind, and it looks like this in terms of delivered + promised:
EU + individual European countries together: 240.6 billion euros + 124.7 = total: 365.3
USA: 118.9 + 88.3 = 207.2
For Europe, the military part accounts for 38%, while for the US it is 61%.
We have previously discussed that the cost of delivering weapons is significantly lower if they are manufactured domestically, and of course if one can donate items that will soon need to be replaced anyway. The costs for refugees are not included, but I have no information to provide on that.
I don’t have the energy to summarize the entire EU, but in terms of percentage of GDP, Sweden has contributed 0.877% and the US not even half, 0.408%.
In any case, the most important thing is that Ukraine gets a fair peace that they are satisfied with, regardless of whether Trump, like an overfed toad, grabs everything for himself or not.
Great overview of the fronts! +++++
That’s probably hitting the nail on the head in terms of how it will go 😀
Yes, exactly, Trump has already hinted that “you have good locations for some hotel buildings in Odessa, I see” 😀
And since UA is going to join the EU, all the costs will land on us, while the USA snatches the best for themselves.
This is how the USA always operates, and now I thought the EU would be quick off the mark, but we have been even slower than the Biden administration.
But… if that’s what’s needed, then so be it, and yes – it signals to me that Zelensky doesn’t fully trust the EU yet, otherwise he wouldn’t have needed to make this deal with Trump.
If it ends like that, I will go to Ukraine and “egg” his hotel and breed a thousand badgers that I will then release onto his golf course!
Zelensky doesn’t dare to trust the EU, and not Trump either because the latter could suddenly change course, must have him, not just for the weapon support but also to prevent Trump from lifting sanctions and worsening the situation in every other way.
So damn tragic and utterly stupid that the USA and Europe didn’t loosen up on everything they could from the beginning. It could have been over by the end of 2022.
It might actually be Biden’s and his advisors’ fault. Afraid of nuclear weapons as they seem to be, they could have actually influenced Europe as well not to give more.
Although I think a lot might have depended on Ålen. He was just as cowardly, if Germany had dared to step in early, the rest would have followed. Macron has been a bit on edge all along and definitely wouldn’t have just stood by if Germany had taken action, then the rest would have followed just like that.
Now the world is falling apart 😲 “could actually be Biden’s and his advisers’ fault”.
Missed this comment.
Yes, but actually it applies to all leaders who didn’t dare to oppose, but I suspect that it’s mainly Sullivan and his analysis buddies’ fault. One could be upset that dithery Biden chose to listen to them, but if Europe had taken a tough stance and advocated for stronger measures, they could probably have made him back down. But they didn’t.
The fact is that the entire West acted like a slowly boiling frog and only now is beginning to realize that Russia’s red lines are purely imaginary.
Blaming Biden for everything seems unfair to me.
He could have stayed out completely, instead he promised Zelensky US support and when it comes to weapon deliveries, they have delivered quite a lot.
The long delay that resulted in over half a year’s backlog wasn’t Biden’s fault.
On the other hand, he didn’t utilize Land/Lease, and I’m really upset with him for that. I guess they then thought that Ukraine would manage with what they had received since they had great successes in the fall of 2022, but they could have sent it anyway, and what wasn’t needed could have been taken back.
But if Trump’s counteroffer results in a ceasefire and frozen fronts, then it is a bad deal for Ukraine.
Yes, it all depends on where it ends, if it does, then it’s not worth anything.
Nor is it any improvement if he is to have natural resources just to maintain the minimum level as it has been recently, without helping with other things, such as even harsher sanctions, etc.
Still nice that Budanov didn’t find his way here 😐
😂
Kursk 🧐