Lions
https://twitter.com/nafovoyager/status/1898270530278486470?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
Initially, there was some scattered information from Saudi.
But then a much more concrete offer came here, which was a joint statement from the USA – UA.
I don’t have the fine print, but UA agrees to a 30-day ceasefire in exchange for the USA resuming direct lethal aid deliveries.
It seems like the USA has done it, and now the USA is supposed to go to Putin, and he agrees to this 30-day ceasefire.
There is a lot going on quietly in Ukraine right now.
We have continuously described the local counterattacks/offensives, and they are still going well.
For me, it is clear that the USA – RU have a deal regarding Kursk, that the USA is doing everything they can to help RU, and that RU is trying to retake the area before negotiations start. Perhaps it is even to the extent that the USA is waiting to call RU for negotiations until Kursk is retaken?
It wouldn’t surprise me if the disabled functions on the F-16 also applied in Kursk.
Ukraine is keeping quiet, but this is very sad…
This has happened before – VDV in Kherson, revealing Ukraine’s battle plans, forcing Ukraine to attack in unfavorable places, stopping them from attacking into Russia.
Equipment was stopped when it was needed most, it couldn’t be used effectively, and Ukraine couldn’t engage targets inside Russia and in certain sectors.
European countries were prevented from sending certain types of equipment, and Storm Shadow had its mapping service stopped when Europe wanted to allow its use into Russia.
– all of this before our good Trump and all confirmed.
What does this really tell us?
Well, first of all, it’s another attempt to slow down Ukraine when things are going too well.
And secondly, RU is now worried because Trump has come out very strongly with his ceasefire.
The difference from the Biden administration is that the EU and UA seem to be breaking with the USA.
The reason for this is that RU will invade the EU by September this year, provided that the Ukraine war is manageable for Russia.
EU could only kick the can down the road until now, probably each country’s Chiefs of Staff have warned our politicians as sharply as possible that we have a few months before this escalates.
As in every war, there is a point where no one can control the situation anymore and everything spirals out of control – we are not there yet, but we are on our way.
Ukraine is not foolish – they understand that they MUST expel Russia from Ukraine themselves, and what they get is material support and possibly some kind of air/ground umbrella over western Ukraine.
RU is at a low point NOW, not at the end of the year or next year, now.
UA currently has full drone superiority, RU artillery is suppressed, and FABs are halted – in six months, this will be rectified by RU.
Now we have the mud season approaching, according to a comment on the excellent johanno1.se comment section, so we are soon facing thaw and rain.
This will last for a month or so, and considering that UA is already severely disrupting maintenance today, it will be critical on most fronts during this period.
RU has already managed to widen Pokrovsk, but we discussed earlier before they took Khakove that RU had two supply routes into the bulge of Pokrovsk.
Today, the entire area is cut off from supplies as UA drones now go 20km in from the front and cover everything like a wet blanket, and UA has millions of drones to use – so no shortage, therefore.
If you go back to the 2022 posts, all of this has already been described in detail about how it would play out, and the only difference today from then is that we know the USA has played extremely dirty here – I probably underestimated it if we go back and read.
And that the EU has finally understood that if Ukraine falls, we will be left holding the bag – we wrote that in frustration over the EU not understanding it.
Russia has already shifted to a war economy – they have time until they run out.
The EU manages this through a peace economy and can thus keep going forever.
The fact that the USA has backed out of the whole spectacle is not decisive in any way, nor is the fact that they are now helping Russia, again… the only ones who will lose from this are the USA.
Scenarios like the USA fighting on Russia’s side can be forgotten – we have said this repeatedly.
Yes, it’s sad that the hope for a change after three years of wandering with the USA has now been dashed, but UA can handle this provided that we in the EU do our part. And the USA, Trump, Elon, et al will face consequences as instant karma is real.
The BIG question mark and what could have a decisive impact here is actually China. They have already been hit with 10% tariffs by the USA, if I understand this correctly, so it feels a bit like the USA is treating them like the EU right now?
Ukraine now has a trade agreement for grain with China, recently signed.
And then China has expressed positivity in terms of peace talks, BUT that it must be with the EU and Ukraine. So, the opposite of the track that Trump is pursuing with Putin.
And below is something very significant – a UA positive report on Chinese TV. Do NOT underestimate this at all.
As is well known, my guess is that China will try to squeeze into the vacuum the USA leaves behind. They will try to improve relations with the EU, they will try to marginalize the USA, they will go hard with Ukraine in hopes of securing contracts and a platform close to the EU.
Only upside for China here.
The whole idea that China will take over eastern Russia – if they were going to do that, don’t you think they would have done it anyway?
There is a bit of Russian psyops in that, just like with the nuclear weapons.
And just like with “if Russia collapses, it will be Armageddon for Europe.”
For each of these threats, the solution presented is that all current and future problems will be solved by letting Russia peacefully annex Ukraine and then there will be peace in our time.
I have a post in progress about RU’s subversive activities, but for those who don’t want to believe me when I write that all evil comes from Russia, even in Sweden, it should be enough to see the USA here almost to understand what a veritable force of nature Russian subversive activities are.
This one from Dugin echoes the Cold War, he has memorized the playbook.
Democracies are by definition vulnerable when dealing with these types of dictatorships, and the risk is always that in their attempts to counter, they themselves cross the line towards dictatorship. We are also slow to start, but once we get going, unbeatable.
Today in Sweden, we add a parameter on top of this – the threat of gangs against people’s families.
Since the police today are essentially incapable and organized crime is light-years ahead (yes, they are – they have managed to infiltrate the police), a scenario is that individuals who are supposed to make decisions, the right individuals preferably further down the chain, receive a visit from two guys on a Friday night or they buddy up with the kids when they leave school.
Then you have an option – 10 million SEK into the wife’s company as a consulting fee or dead children.
Many choose option one and stay silent.
SÄPO has repeatedly warned about this now so many times that no one reading this should doubt anymore.
Then you have my own theory about why our leaders tiptoe around Putin – it’s not the bribes and it’s not the threat of war, it’s the subversive activities.
We saw it with Macron in January 2024 when he came out strong against Russia as the first president, he faced huge demonstrations from the left, right, and Islamists, a new election, potential crisis, and a violent social media campaign against him.
The same happened to Kier Starmer when he wanted to give Storm Shadow and also the fun fact that he got his wardrobe from a billionaire.
The problem you face when going against Putin is that your darkest secrets end up in the newspapers, risking your career being crushed.
Criminal gangs will try to pressure you, and they will try to target your family.
Then you will definitely face political chaos from the right, left, and Islamists, all controlled by Russia.
Western leaders have been reluctant to do what is necessary here, and Ukraine has suffered greatly unnecessarily.
In a whole year of war, everything that seemed impossible happened, every time.
This is something no one will want to talk about because it shows that our leaders are afraid and weak, but it should be brought to light and thoroughly cleansed.
Then we should go back to the Cold War thinking about threats to national security – “follow the money” isn’t a bad idea, and most importantly, the easiest way to launder money is straight into a limited company as a consulting fee, not in your name but in your partner’s. The tax authorities just want the taxes, right?
The line is thin – having an opinion is one thing, but getting paid to destabilize a country is a crime that currently doesn’t lead to much but causes enormous harm.
Russia is already labeled as a “sponsor of state terrorism,” so it SHOULD be very easy to apply anti-terrorism laws to all of this, but it’s not being done.
Then the current government wants to tighten the rules for various crimes involving criminal gangs, but since it’s not limited to criminal gangs, it will, as usual, result in laws that will be applied to ordinary tax-paying citizens. They say you should never miss a good crisis, right?
Anti-terrorism legislation is quite good – increased powers, clear, harsh penalties, and all that is needed is to vote on declaring a certain country a “state sponsor of terrorism” so all connections with that country or organization become illegal and fall under anti-terrorism laws.
Yes, we don’t want to go back to McCarthyism or our Cold War era where “communists” (everyone who wasn’t far-right) had their careers completely destroyed.
But it is possible to clearly limit this and expose those who are paid by Russia to do their bidding.
It is crucial that our politicians pursue policies for the majority society (the nurturing group regardless of ethnicity) so they are politically secure and don’t risk being brought down when Russia’s subversive activities intensify.
Russia’s subversive activities identify cracks in society where the cohesion is a bit loose, and the fact that Russia has been able to create these cracks undisturbed is of course a bit sad, but that’s where we are now, and then their whole machinery starts running to get the strongest possible effect out of this.
The Quran burnings had Russian fingerprints, in Germany they burned cars and painted slogans from Die Grune, and in France swastikas on Jewish facilities – EXACTLY like during the Cold War where the neo-Nazis in Germany were Russian agents with felt-tip pens running around drawing swastikas everywhere.
Criminal gangs are paid by foreign powers to carry out all sorts of activities – unfortunately, this is somewhat new and combined with our police being in decline and them already having infiltrated civil society on a large scale, this is a threat to national security that is not yet taken seriously. SVT continues to play gangster rap and finds it cool even when the artists kill each other a few times a year.
The problem is not the gangs but the criminal clans that have a broader loyalty group where individuals are lawyers, doctors, police officers, or public officials – they are camouflaged chameleons who operate in positions of responsibility in civil society but are activated when needed to carry out specific missions. They cannot be exposed as they have no criminal record, and it is difficult to detect when they commit crimes.
During the Cold War, Russia had to try to embed spies in rings with new identities and a huge buildup phase. It was probably 3-4 in a ring helping each other up in society, and they surprisingly got far when they gave each other a boost.
Later in the late Cold War, we had the “march through the institutions” which probably still applies to some extent today, where we have “activists” in positions of responsibility. For example, the police are completely crazy about lawyers always finding reasons to acquit criminals – do you think Russia thinks it’s a good idea to acquit as many as possible?
And now Russia has probably focused on the gangs and the criminal clans and provided them with “know-how” in exchange for working for them. I found the widespread “honey traps” set up by gangs for female prison officers quite exciting and something they hadn’t thought of themselves.
So today, Russia has essentially its infiltrated spy network in Sweden again, but this time with local talents and much easier to implement.
One could guess that all these campaigns to hire with broader recruitment everywhere were aimed at the criminal clans starting to place their personnel in civil society, for example?
A noble purpose used by Russia for a not so noble purpose?
Consider that criminal clans have broader recruitment on their side, so their candidates are more attractive, they are unscrupulous, and they have Russia’s “know-how” backing them.
Do you think they manage to outmaneuver other applicants for positions through various means nowadays, where the final resort is to threaten the rival so they decline the job if necessary?
Once again – do not underestimate what Russia is up to here, and this is EXACTLY how they operated during the Cold War, infiltrating everywhere.
The ring from Cambridge that rose as a spear in the British administration, for example, do you think that was an isolated case?
Why am I nagging about this now?
Well, because in September it will hit the fan and our governments must start making tough decisions from today onwards.
And Russian subversive activities have already gone into overdrive today.
If you want to influence a decision with a small majority, all you need to do is reach 1-2 of our members of parliament, preferably some invisible poor soul.
In civil society, you sabotage across the board – I think the Russian roll-on/roll-off port in Gotland is excellent in hindsight and that we shouldn’t have cement production in Sweden is another gem 😀
The fact that we have shut down 6 nuclear reactors just when we will need electricity-intensive defense industry is of course unfortunate.
And it never ends with all the plots Russian interests buy near our protected sites – does anyone keep track of individuals on the periphery of the criminal clans and what they are buying up?
In case of war, do you think the gangs will become our modern-day Spetsnaz with tasks to combat politicians, police, and high-ranking individuals in civil society?
And then the deputy of the murdered person is from a criminal clan?
Today, Russia has the opportunity to throw a wrench in the works that they couldn’t achieve during the Cold War – they have completely camouflaged contacts throughout civil society – how high up is difficult to know.
Today, they have managed to pacify the USA in a way they couldn’t during the Cold War.
And they have succeeded a bit too well in controlling the EU, but we are on the verge of shaking off the shackles.
The only thing we can be sure of is that there will be more extensive testing of NATO as RU needs subversive activities on a scale beyond what we have seen so far.
And the other alternative is that Russia loses in a fair war in Ukraine and the country turns inward/collapses. Then all agencies will start fighting each other instead and vie for power, and calm will settle over the West.
I know what I want, and I have wanted this since 2022, throughout that year and even into 2023 it was frowned upon in “the other thread” to have that opinion – many opposing views.
That is the only thing that would solve this neatly.
Ukraine wants this, but the EU and the USA have prevented a full-blown war.
If you liked the post, please share it on your channels,
If you want a fun comment section that is really picking up steam and is no longer just me hyping it on Bluesky– johanno1.se.
I recommend everyone who still comments on Substack or Bluesky to switch over to that thread instead – then your grandchildren will read your historical archive and start liking you. I also don’t have time to respond there.
On Substack, feel free to become paying subscribers, even those of you who already follow, and it’s great to see that some find it worth reading, appreciate all the work put into this, and took the step to subscribe 👍
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social
Then there are the Swedish rescuers, the ones I have been in contact with who are quietly working and delivering supplies to Ukraine. You don’t see them constantly on social media because they are instead working to support Ukraine.
Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!
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Russian losses in Ukraine 2025-03-12
1430 KWIA
3 Tanks
7 APVs
44 Artillery systems
1 MLRS
111 UAVs
69 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
2 Special equipment
Glory to Ukraine!
https://bsky.app/profile/matsextrude.bsky.social/post/3lk5tylnqbk27
Operational information as of 08.00 12.03.2025 on the Russian invasion
In total, 259↗️↗️combat engagements took place over the past day.
#Kharkiv 8
#Kupyansk 13💥
#Lyman 33💥↗️
#Siversky 6
#Kramatorsk 14💥
#Toretsk 32💥💥↗️
#Pokrovsk 68💥💥💥💥↗️
#Novopavlivka 18💥
#Huliaipil 15💥↗️
#Orikhivsk 9
#Prydniprovsky 2
#Kursk 33💥💥↗️
The AFRF🇷🇺 launched two missile attacks on the positions of Ukrainian units and populated areas using two missiles, as well as 74 air strikes, dropping 116 guided bombs. In addition, it carried out more than five thousand attacks, including 156 from multiple launch rocket systems, and used 2,285 kamikaze drones to attack.
Over the past day, the aviation, missile forces and artillery of the AFU🇺🇦 hit seven areas of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment of the AFRF🇷🇺.
In total, 259 combat clashes took place during the past day.
The enemy launched two missile strikes at the positions of Ukrainian units and settlements using two missiles, as well as 74 air strikes, dropping 116 guided bombs. Additionally, over five thousand shells were fired, of which 156 were from amphibious fire rocket systems, and 2285 kamikaze drones were deployed for attacks.
Thank you Matsextrude. One more day closer to the collapse of Moskvarik 👍🏻.
High losses, many attacks in kursk
Russia must go. It may take some time. While waiting for that, all borders must be closed: geographically, economically, communicatively (the last one is difficult, I know).
Amen.
💯
✊✊
Russia must be defeated at least in Ukraine, if it is enough to create enough chaos in Russia to make it collapse, so be it.
👍👍
Well played, Mr. Zelensky! Well played!
Now it gets interesting! Now it’s time for the USA to show its true colors. We don’t know the full extent of what has been said and discussed, but now the USA must show whether they will take a tough stance against RU or if they will seriously follow RU’s line.
If China doesn’t want to reclaim the territories right now, but when the time is right, why are they renaming Russian cities on their maps? Why should they let the Russians annex whatever they want without consequences?
https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/13560
I believe China plays a bigger role in this war than we want to admit. Whichever way it goes, they are the winners and can advance their positions everywhere and push back the USA.
I don’t think a Russian collapse would harm Europe, but it would risk becoming very bloody in Russia and a breeding ground for extremism with acts of violence around the world as a result. Look at Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, etc. etc.
I don’t believe that a Russian collapse will harm us significantly either. And as for the breeding ground for extremism, well, they are already determined to subjugate their surroundings through bloody wars today, so I don’t think it will get much worse.
It is probably more likely that the greatest risk is that the southernmost and Asian parts, -places, become a new playground for mujahideen, al-Qaeda, HTS, and other Islamists. Or it becomes the grave of the Islamists, with a little luck and a long life, we will see how it turned out.
More extremism than today from RU?
Imagine Daesh but in different forms plus a lot of oligarch/mafia groupings.
It gets worst in RU but easily spills over the borders.
Tom Cooper goes against Syrsky and claims that Kursk is lost for UA and in anything but an orderly retreat. Sad reading.
https://open.substack.com/pub/xxtomcooperxx/p/the-end-of-the-kursk-bulge?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
UA will, however, establish a foothold in Sudzha, which is located so close to Ukraine that UA’s forces will come under the protection of their own artillery on the own side of the border.
Sorry, that probably means that the Russians, now that they think they have momentum, don’t want to sign on for a ceasefire.
In the RU attempts to cut off UA Kursk supply lines, Russian units are said to have been knocked out by UA using drones and artillery.
Ukrainian fire control has become so dominant that after initial attempts at armor and vehicle attacks were destroyed, the Russians are now trying to infiltrate groups of a handful of soldiers, but in the snow they can be tracked by drones and cannot gain a foothold.
The Russians cannot use military vehicles due to the terrain. For now, it is quiet until the ground freezes again.
It’s correct
The Russian shit house must collapse – it’s the only way out for the outside world. Cancer must be made to eat itself.
The Russian embassy must be closed, it’s just a big spy center. Actually, Russia should be digitally isolated as well. No encrypted emails. No social media. No phone calls. No satellite calls. Try to paralyze the entire supply chain for subversive activities.
That part is very easy today – in the past, they could only communicate with coded messages on long wave.
In the best of worlds. Unfortunately, it’s not the one we live in.
Are embassies still necessary? They had great value when communication was done by horse and could take weeks if not months. Nowadays, they are more advanced positions for gathering information. Of course, they do provide some services regarding passports, visas, etc. Is the idea of embassies outdated?
Yes, that is the only logical conclusion.
An inspired yellow wall by Johan today. But I don’t think Russia can handle more than skirmishes aimed at the Baltics this fall. But a country like Russia cannot be seen as a loser. Then the whole world should burn, kind of. That’s the pathology of the Russian. The Russian is generous in prosperity but a vengeful person in adversity.
It’s about what it will be – take a few hectares of land
This ceasefire is high risk
Interesting reading about China, gangs, and Russian subversive activities.
Regarding China, isn’t it a reverse Kissinger/Nixon situation? Back then, the USA approached China to neutralize the pact between China and the Soviet Union, which laid the foundation for the later ABM agreement between the USA and the Soviet Union. Today, the opposite is happening: the USA and China are drifting apart, and the USA is instead initiating a normalization of relations with Russia. A balancing act in this relationship creates pressure on China, or if China is moving closer to the EU as you mentioned, thereby solidifying the distancing from the USA?
Speaking of subversive activities, this has been the plan of the Siloviks ever since Glasnost, which was an idea of KGB chief Yuri Andropov to change tactics – end the Cold War and instead enter the West with capital (raw materials, Putin’s role as mayor in St. Petersburg) and build a business network, which is probably involved in financing the subversive activities today.
https://www.svd.se/a/nA95jx/perestrojkan-skulle-bereda-vagen-for-putin
👍 (Too bad the link was locked, seemed like an interesting article.)
Mycket intressant 205
The USA has resumed sharing information with Ukraine, says Tulsi Gabbard. Apparently, the USA has also resumed weapon deliveries via the Poland hub.
https://bsky.app/profile/kyivindependent.com/post/3lk6agsyvq22h
Ukraine is said to have accepted a 30-day ceasefire and received resumed information and weapon deliveries from the USA as a reward. 🤔🤔🤔. The Russians are keeping quiet about the ceasefire. “We make our own decisions,” says Zacharova.
Good if it’s true
Captain of Solong container ship involved in North Sea crash is Russian national.
https://news.sky.com/story/captain-of-solong-container-ship-involved-in-north-sea-crash-is-russian-national-company-says-13326888
Not entirely unexpected that a Russian was involved.
Perhaps not the most likely that it was intentional, but in a way one is not surprised that an old Russian shows up… Imaginative thoughts on the theme of carrot – whip do not yield high scores. – FSB offers overnight accommodation to the family, with special services – or – peace and quiet for the family along with running water and a few toilet seats for the old mother-in-law in the countryside…
Jo…
What is not mentioned after this excellent update on the fronts (thank you!) is probably that the Russians’ logical next step, now that they have recaptured Kursk, is simply to agree to Trump’s ceasefire. And then they can lick their wounds in peace for a while, until this low point Johan talks about has passed.
And then, when they feel ready, they will of course arrange something that superficially looks like Ukraine breaking the ceasefire, and Trump will pretend to fall for it and withdraw all assistance and intelligence and flick all the switches. And so the war is on again, but with the Russians in a better position than now. If, big IF, Europe cannot step up quickly as hell and ensure that it is Ukraine that strengthens the fastest during the ceasefire.
Apparently, there are still some battles going on in Kursk, in Sudzja itself. I guess Putin is waiting for it to be over, and then he will agree to the ceasefire. So, Ukraine needs to do as much as they can on the other fronts before the last of Kursk falls …
https://bsky.app/profile/friaukraina.bsky.social/post/3lk6e2ne7fc2g
Börjesson!
I think like you. Ukraine simply had to accept a ceasefire. Of course, one can hope that Putin changes his mind. But he’s probably not that foolish. Unfortunately!
By the way, welcome. I haven’t seen you here before. Although I’m not always around, so I might have missed a previous appearance.
If, which unfortunately seems increasingly likely, Putin and Trump are in cahoots, then Putin will of course not refuse the ceasefire that he himself has persuaded Trump to propose. But as you say, it would have been almost impossible for Ukraine to say no either, as it would have only reinforced Trump’s malicious narrative that they are warmongers. Unfortunately, quite skillfully played by Putin.
Thank you for the welcome! 🙂 I have been here for … a few weeks, maybe? But I don’t write very often anymore. Sometimes here, sometimes at LW, but mostly I just read.
Yes, I’m not entirely fond of this ceasefire – trying to find positive openings but it’s a bad day
I’m not sure if the Muscovite realm will say yes. They have probably picked up the signal from China. Even the USA may have picked it up. A China signaling readiness to enter the space vacated by the USA with soft power… that could make Moscow show that they won’t let the USA dictate the terms while the USA realizes that it is in their interest to let Ukraine gain momentum again.
China’s move is extremely exciting (although I might be getting ahead of myself in my thoughts and then everything takes a completely different turn anyway).
While I’m at it, I wonder if it was part of the deal with the USA for Ukraine to leave Kursk. It happened very quickly in the end. And now, since Ukraine has been positive about a temporary ceasefire, it becomes clear again who invaded whom.
In theory, it is also easier for Europe to, for example, relieve Ukrainian forces if the relief only frees up forces to liberate Ukraine (and not to hold Russian territory). Perhaps Kursk has played out its significance.
Trump administration and Biden administration – US foreign policy tends to be almost constant, rarely changing between different administrations. No.1 and the comment section have repeatedly pointed out that at their core, Biden and Trump are almost alike.
I am pleased to see that it is starting to become clear in this blog/comment section that the US sees the war in Ukraine as a local conflict, with limited interest for the US. It is a global issue for us in Europe and an existential one for Ukraine. But not for the US, which just wants the mess to disappear from the agenda. – The Russians are and remain a gas station with their own flag… That’s been the US opinion for a long time, nothing new with Trump.
Something that has bothered me for a long time, and which No.1 commendably delves into today, is that the “front” in the war is not where the Swedish state believes it is, at least not officially. – I draw conclusions from No.1’s conclusions, which he understands and means, but didn’t explicitly write.
Immigration, clans, and the inability to handle pressure from Islam/Islamists and gangs, I leave to others to comment on. – Or, I remember Ebba Bush’s ordeal because she stated the obvious after the Easter riots, why didn’t the police shoot… Another day.
The front then? Really? For example, battles, local initiatives, or environmental activism from organizations, against uranium mining, rare earth metals, forest harvesting, etc., etc. – The “frontline” in this war in Sweden lies in self-sufficiency, food, energy, defense industry, as much as in border protection, military power, capability for rearward combat, and own nuclear weapons for deterrence or effective retaliation.
A typical example in southern Sweden. Norra Kärr outside Gränna (Jönköping County), where local reluctance to have a mine in the backyard (understandable on a personal level) and unreasonable environmental legislation have effectively prevented the country of Sweden from becoming self-sufficient and independent. The presence of rare earth metals (one of the largest deposits in the world) has been known for a hundred years and is now more urgent than ever. Functional mining there would have been real geopolitics, just as significant as someone dropping “the bomb”. – The Swedish state should have pointed with a firm hand, referred to as indispensable for the realm’s security, and just solved the problem.
It would also have brought real power, internationally, if there were any politicians who could prioritize Sweden’s interests… (Why is it so difficult??)
The Swedish state’s inability to prioritize interests, thus the inability to prioritize freedom, security, and (necessarily) self-sufficiency at the top of the interest list, leads to everything going wrong. – If we can’t secure the country and sovereignty, what significance do rare insects and orchids have? It’s not like the war is environmentally friendly or the Russians care about salamander habitats…
We need to transform our state economy, ditch all the “politician fun,” and support Ukraine for endurance or big profits. There is no more important issue. We must not give the Russians any leeway until September (or any other time either). – At the same time, equally important, we must fix our military power and our supply of raw materials, production resources, energy, and food.
(I have to write this at the end, with a symbolic parenthesis. – Damn if invading Russia, straight to Moscow, asphalting the place and building something new for 50 years, Lex Germany, Lex Japan, wouldn’t have been the best thing now, spring 2025. – There is no capability in the Russians to do two things, and territorial defense is completely lacking. Military capability is relative, Sweden has taken Moscow with 5,000 men before, even if it was on March 12, 1610… Prigroshin was heading towards the same thing, last year… With Ukraine in its corner, we (EU et al.) could have beaten the crap out of the Russians with what we have.)
Jo – the best thing that could happen is if Russia implodes, which the West has been trying to avoid for three years now…
Good post in my opinion – we are at the point where uncomfortable truths must start being discussed because the alternatives are worse.
Don’t forget the nutcracker. The nutcracker is on the red list in Sweden. Not because it is a globally threatened species, but because we are on the edge of its distribution range.
https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/fagel-kan-stoppa-ikeas-planer-att-bygga-i-almnas
https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/N%C3%B6tkr%C3%A5ka
— EU residents view the European Union’s leadership more positively than that of Germany and the US. Indeed, no country’s residents approve of their own leaders more than the leadership of the bloc, which had a median approval rating of 62% in 2024.
https://semafor.com/s/haW9oyMQzi
Good, right?
Yes, facilitates breaking through obstacles that are in the way of a (supranational) EU army. The focus in NATO is shifting in the same direction. Cooperation?
Strange about Kursk – do you think UA understood that it wouldn’t be valued in negotiations maybe?
What do you think
I believe it’s a piece, but the whole is a pure cost-benefit analysis. Negotiating opportunities, losses (material and human lives), etc. must be right, otherwise it’s just a retreat. The race is long, the war is not over yet.
Prediction. There will be a new breakthrough in a new location, but not until the large forces in Kursk are sent back to the front in UA again, where they can be taxed along the way. – A new breakthrough leads to a new relocation for the Russians, new taxation during transport, as well as the cost of materials, fuel, and time with a gun in hand to transport themselves. Difficult to shoot at UA while sitting on a truck bed.
If the Russians think the same way, they won’t fall for it. But, if RY needs a lot of people to strengthen the entire border against UA. Then it will be a UA offensive in the south instead, near the Black Sea.
I believe this has been planned by UA for a long time (or rather, hope).
Sooooo I have been waiting for that Break-in at another location 😭
If RU is to be criticized in a negotiation situation for attacking the neighboring country Ukraine, then Ukraine cannot do the same and enter Russian territory. UA may have received more or less orders to leave Kursk.
A bit of line feeling.
A combo – press from the USA, rig strong ink and F16 and ru attack.
By the way, ru lost 800 in the tunnel crawling.
The important thing is who crossed the line first, and there is no doubt about who should be blamed.
They release most of it so that Russia gets hybris and becomes focused on regaining everything. During that period, Russia will not agree to a ceasefire. They then become the aggressive, bad boys.
Why September, Johan?
Zapad 2025
OK. NATO is welcome to have an exercise in the Baltics at the same time. Or why not a first European joint exercise.
“peace in our time”, “it is very important now not to escalate”, “provoking Russia now can lead to war”.
It takes time to deploy troops in the Baltics – it has to be voted on in parliament and if the threat of war is added, it becomes a bit more difficult. Putin’s parties will block everything everywhere they can.
Therefore, we need to see the first 10-15 brigades from the EU in the Baltics sometime this spring, which is now, for there to be peace.
Yes
You have a point Bal, therefore it is important to extend Kursk for as long as possible.
Russian vacillation with a ceasefire will stress T.
Let’s say Ukraine withdraws from Kursk, then clearly Ukrainian troops will be released.
The question is what will happen to the Russian soldiers?
Will Putin be so paranoid that he reinforces the border with Ukraine in the future to prevent a new invasion?
Previously, Putin could rely on Ukraine not entering Russia.
Can he do that now too?
What happened to the approximately +20,000 Ukrainian soldiers who are now experts in offensive warfare?
Will they be deployed to other frontlines once they have rested?
Do we have a situation now where Russia is forced to station troops against Ukraine while Ukraine frees up resources to carry out offensives on suitable frontlines?
Perhaps it was time to withdraw and allocate the freed resources where they would be more useful?
A very interesting angle on the whole thing 👍👍
Not impossible that it could happen, but I don’t think anyone dares to pull too many from that front. At least not directly. There is a risk that the Russians feel they have the upper hand and therefore will try to continue into Ukraine. The Russians may also reason as you do and want to avoid Ukraine being able to move troops to another section. It may also be that Ukraine stays to continue posing a threat, so that the Russians, on their side, cannot move troops to, for example, Donbas.
Very well written as usual.
Some risk of echo chamber here, perhaps because one is a middle-aged engineer who has experienced the Cold War and done military service. 🤔
That being said, I appreciate both Johanno1’s analysis and the responses/posts of others. It has been serious for quite some time now, and the clock is almost striking.
Yes, that’s right – this ceasefire is potentially the opening for an attack against the Baltics this fall.
There is some diversity of opinions when it comes to Trump, not as narrow as in some other places 😀
I also don’t think IT has blocked anyone/many, so a good tone is natural.
A few less comments than usual but wow, what great comments 👍👍
Fun reading on the way to work
Most people are probably waiting for Trump to wake up and empty his mailbox and find the email from Lavrov where it says Njet in uppercase.
Trump has taken over as game master and news tends to be postponed to the afternoon and evening.
🤣🤣
“AFU completely withdrew from Sudzha, — DeepState
Currently, only the presence of the Russian army and a gray zone in the west and north are indicated in the city.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lk6l7hfwls25
“Ukrainian Forces withdraw from Sudzha after 218-day standoff in Kursk region #Ukraine”
https://bsky.app/profile/amplifyukraine.eu/post/3lk6ljvgoxb26
https://www.uawire.org/ukrainian-forces-withdraw-from-sudzha-after-218-day-standoff-in-kursk-region
UA has retreated from Kursk – in the process of writing it up and trying to post it tomorrow.
Completely political and guaranteed after pressure from the USA.
The North Koreans’ wedge was only deadly for them, and 800 of the tunnel crawlers died.
RU failed in all of its attack attempts.
Even though UA did not receive information from the USA and RU could see Starlinks as shining beacons.
Quite sad – we have previously noted that Trump did not mention Kursk with a single word.
Now we know why – RU was supposed to “regain” it before negotiations began.
Now those idiots failed even with that, so Trump had to step in and point with the whole hand.
There is absolutely nothing indicating that Ukraine retreated from Kursk for political reasons. They were simply pushed back. The Russians have been building up their forces there for a long time, mainly focusing on disrupting the logistics. Of course, it didn’t help at all to get rid of the American intelligence either, but by that time, it was already clear how it would end. Possibly it went a little faster now.
But in return, the Russians have been forced to weaken in many other places. Great opportunities for Ukraine to take advantage of that – if it hadn’t been for the ceasefire that Putin is now going to agree to …
If anyone hasn’t seen it yet:
“Ukrainian military shared a video of interception of the Russian cruise missile using IRIS-T.
📹: Air Command “West” of the Ukrainian Air Force”
https://bsky.app/profile/united24media.com/post/3lk6lwjspea2d
Nice – a lot of made-in-EU products are coming to Ukraine now
IT is having fun with the color palette I see 😂
The one on the mobile side on iPhone is not too bad, right?
It became better this way.
Yesterday was a bit chaotic, it felt like for a while?
MXT, there is a line at the top where it shows the number of posts, is it possible to add the time of the latest post?
It would be nice if there was a way to also highlight posts that have been submitted in the last hour, but maybe that’s asking for too much?
I thought for a while about ignoring the yellow in the comments and only keeping it blue in a couple of shades, it would be clearer then.
Then one could come up with some other way instead of the background color to highlight the post author’s comments.
Maybe that will be tomorrow’s experiment! 😂
I think green is missing
Are you thinking as a tribute to the Green Party and the Greens in Germany?
Do you suffer from color dysphoria?
Today I identify as yellow, tomorrow I will come out of the closet as green!
I’m considering building a solution where everyone can choose their very own colors! 😂
Now we’re really getting somewhere 🤣🤣
Saudi Arabia could become a key player in Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction. According to agreements reached during a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Jeddah, the two leaders committed to strengthening investment cooperation.
https://www.uawire.org/saudi-arabia-poised-to-invest-in-ukraine-s-post-war-reconstruction-efforts
I suspect that Don Trump has called MBS and suggested that investments in UA are a good way to pay for protection. Someone has to pay for the extraction of minerals.
Where is the EU in all of this?
After all, we will be the ones paying for this party, more or less.
Should then all the other countries get all the cooperation with Ukraine?
Turkey has been forced to give breadcrumbs, as we know the USA has too, now Saudi Arabia and then China.
Zelensky: “Our army is using long-range weapons of national production. This is not a show of force; it is a fair response to what Russia is doing. Today, the Russian Federation struck a hotel in Kryvyi Rih. Do you think Ukraine will not respond to this?”
@wartranslated (x)
“Zelensky: “We are fighting for our independence. And therefore, we will not recognize any territories occupied by Russia. This is a fact. Our people fought for this, our heroes died. How many were wounded, how much has happened.”
“Therefore, no one will forget about this. When I say that no one will forget, this is the most important red line. We will not let anyone forget about this crime against Ukraine.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lk6prnezr22j“
OT:
“The result of the election in Greenland is a political earthquake, writes NRK’s Nordic correspondent Joakim Reigstad in an analysis. The big winner of the election was, to everyone’s surprise, the social-liberal Demokraatit party, which advocates for a cautious path towards independence and a continued close relationship with Denmark.
Reigstad wonders if this is an “inverse Trump effect,” that the American president’s statement about making Greenland American has driven voters away from the independence movement, towards security.
“This was definitely not the result Trump wished for, rather the opposite,” he writes.”
https://omni.se/analyser-resultatet-ar-tvart-emot-vad-trump-onskade-sig/a/KMR8LG
Or maybe this was Ts plan B. An independent Greenland with an economy that cannot sustain itself would be a disaster. An economy based on seal hunting could easily end up in the hands of Chinese lenders.
Sometimes one wonders if this isn’t a game between the lines 😶
Zelenskyy: “I have emphasized repeatedly that none of us trust the Russians – we’ve been through this before. But we will not play along with narratives suggesting that we don’t want to end the war. I am very serious about this, and it is crucial for me to end the war. I want the U.S. President to see this, for Europe and everyone to be united in forcing Russia to end the war. That is why my reaction was that we are ready for a 30-day silence format in the way proposed by the American side.”.
@wartranslated (x)
If we continue to deliver to Ukraine during this time, there probably isn’t any risk within 30 days; it’s better to agree to that and then we’ll see what Putin responds.
Zelensky must sign the document with Bishop Brask’s old seal.
“hello I have been beaten by Trump without anyone helping me so in the end I gave up but we are trying to do the smallest thing.”
The Ukrainian Ground Forces have shared the first-ever oath-taking ceremony for soldiers under the new “18-24” contracts. Featured in the photos are the future warriors of the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade “Edelweiss.”
OT (On Topic) China weakens relationship with Russia to maintain relationship with EU:
China refuses to transit goods through Russia
Russia’s restrictions on the transit of dual-use goods have led to a significant decrease in the flow of goods by rail from China to Europe.
Chinese suppliers have lost confidence in the route after Russian customs officials massively confiscated their goods.
“We have not dared to send goods by rail since November,” says Andrew Dang, CEO of Shanghai-based Air Sea Transport.
Russia increased transit controls in October, especially for mechanical and electronic products that can be used for military purposes.
Due to Western sanctions, some confiscated goods remain in Russia. This has paralyzed logistics flows – up to 80,000 containers are transported to Europe through Russia every month.
Amidst the problems, China and Kazakhstan opened a new railway route that bypasses Russia. Trains will travel through Turkmenistan, Iran, and Turkey to Europe. Beijing is also developing alternative routes through Central Asia and the Caspian Sea.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2025/03/12/7502533/
Yes – they have been working on their southern link for a while now through a lot of – somewhere has discussed that route before and I THINK they want to anchor that route in Ukraine and have the country as a “transshipment point” into the EU.
Was into this during the summer of 2024 during my major depressive period.
A bit interesting that China chooses the Russia-friendly Iran as its transaction partner?? This is what I mean with China, they do things that LOOK like they are against Russia, but are actually WITH Russia. But through proxies (Iran).
Complicated? Absolutely. That’s the point of the Chinese maneuvers – it should be a bit like trying to follow the coin under the three cups in the hands of the nimble trickster. Just when you think you know where the coin is, it’s not there, and barely even under the other cups.
China plays high and long-term and with anyone, as long as it suits China’s own plans.
Super thanks for a great analysis.
I heard a while back Jake Broe presenting a theory that Trump, Putin, and Xi Jinping had made a Molotov-Ribbentrop 2.0 and divided the world between themselves.
It largely involved Trump getting North and South America (I assume Greenland is included there in some way), Putin getting Europe, and Xi getting East- or maybe it was Southeast Asia.
The idea of Xi getting Southeast Asia seems to fit well with the fact that China has now released maps with the old Chinese names for Manchuria and the surrounding area.
I pondered for a long time on what would happen to Africa and Arabia. It occurred to me a while ago that it might not be impossible for the mullahs of Iran to take care of Arabia as a thank you for the long and loyal supply of Shahed drones. Or at least all the countries there that RU doesn’t quite manage to control themselves.
If you think like this, you’re not fooling yourself into believing that Trump could be turned around and come to his senses. Moreover, it could also be the case that none of these new world rulers like democracy, which explains why Trump is deliberately dismantling democratic institutions in the USA.
Much of what is happening in both the USA and in the game between UA, RU, and the USA seems obvious if you think like this. It also means that maybe one shouldn’t trust too much in Xi “being nice” and siding with Europe against the USA and RU.
I hope that Jake (and I) are wrong and that it’s just a bad dream.
Thank you Nipe – is it an English Najp or a fully Norwegian NIPPE that one should pronounce the name?
We have seen Russia’s cards and we know what they want – no secret.
We have absolutely not seen China’s, and China always does what benefits them the most, and it’s no secret that they are not very keen on the USA.
I don’t think we have seen Trump’s endgame yet – I suspect he wants the EU in a cold war with Russia and a Russia that the USA has good relations with to balance against China, but I’m not sure.
The USA is not our friend, and during the Cold War, they had the world divided between them just as you describe.
Haha ha… Nipe is the first two letters of my two first names combined into one, easy to remember for me, can be pronounced however one wants.
Yes, RU’s intention is for RF to stretch from Vladivostok to Portugal, it’s no secret. Previously, this hasn’t been something that the USA has been happy with. Now it seems like Trump doesn’t care if RU takes over half the world, why doesn’t he? This victory for RU should somewhere imply a loss for the USA, a loss of its own origin, its friends, and allies. For me, it’s hard to grasp but I must understand that this is how it is now.
No, we probably haven’t seen or understood what Trump is really aiming for. I can see that he is weakening the USA by firing necessary personnel within NASA and many other important institutions and dismantling the democratic institutions. I can imagine that he wants or is working for his tech oligarchs to take over the actual governance of the country. It doesn’t feel like he cares if RU becomes aware of all of the USA’s secrets, it doesn’t feel like he understands that he is weakening the USA, which he truly is. Even if he gains RU and Tji as allies, he still loses what has been, which is a loss in the context. He is doing his own country a great disservice in my opinion. Why is he doing this? I don’t think it’s just to “correct mistakes” from previous democratic administrations. I see that it’s intentional and I can’t see anything mitigating or something that even MAGA can appreciate in the long run. Making America great again is not the description I think of when I see what he is doing.
I believe that we, the Americans and the rest of the world, will see and understand, and I hope it’s not too late. I am damn not optimistic.
I must admit that my worst-case scenario is also what you describe above. Perhaps I saw the same episode of Jake Broe as you, or at least one where he referred to George Orwell’s 1984 and a division of the world into Oceania, Eurasia, and Eastasia.
As you say, many pieces fall into place with that theory, which otherwise seems very strange.
I think Fox News already sounds eerily like the Ministry of Truth with its doublespeak.
And Elon Musk, why does he act in a way that lowers the value of his own company, without seeming to care significantly? What is his end game? Musk is a megalomaniac in everything he does, why would a politically empowered Musk be any different? If he wants to create settlements on Mars, where does he set the bar for his political ambitions?
Similarly, Trump is driving the economy into the ground and dismantling the state apparatus, even throwing the once powerful MIC under the bus; who wants to buy American weapons now? And he is purging the military leadership to replace them with loyalists, while simultaneously starting a foolish trade war with Canada that is devastating for the American economy. But it makes sense if the goal is truly to incorporate Canada into the USA, possibly by military means.
And Trump, who has always been obsessed with stock market gains as a measure of success, doesn’t seem overly interested in the current nosedive. What is his end game? What did Orban do at Mar-a-Lago, acting as an envoy between Trump and Putin? One gets the feeling that they have been syncing with each other for a long time.
Lots of experienced FBI agents are being purged, and the new FBI chief Kash Patel has no experience for the job but is a perfect fit if Trump wants to create his own FSB.
And why does everything have to happen so quickly? Trump has full control over Congress and could handle everything through it, yet it has to be done through Musk with a chainsaw. There also seems to be a rush to force Ukraine to capitulate to Russia, the ambush on Z in the White House gave an almost desperate impression from Trump’s side.
And how much power does the Project 2025 group have behind the scenes, who is pulling the strings?
Is there an end goal so significant that it makes the state of the American economy and the value of Tesla stocks seem like minor details compared to the ultimate prize they want to win?
I don’t know. But I get eerie vibes from what is happening.
Hopefully, I am far out in the wilderness of conspiracy theories and cycles. And the simple answer is that Trump is simply a chronic narcissist, stumbling around in the geopolitical china shop like a blind elephant on steroids. Furthermore, I doubt that Trump himself would even have the discipline, endurance, and competence to carry out such a plan.
Tomorrow will be a slightly more subdued post, but if we receive news about new UA offensives, it will immediately become more positive.
I’m lukewarm about the whole ceasefire, and so is UA, but they are forced.
They are also forced into Kursk.
So it is RU via USA that has demanded that UA leaves Kursk, nothing else as some others still seem to advocate when looking around.
EU has not been able to offer such an attractive alternative that UA could ignore this.
Tomorrow or something, there will probably be a discussion between the USA and RU, and RU has said that if UA stands in Kursk, there will be nothing.
USA can probably put pressure on RU to accept a ceasefire. If RU doesn’t agree to any, things will get tough for them. OK then, you’ll get a taste. USA has the resources to deploy and make RU soften. Money and military resources speak for themselves.
Yes, murky is probably the right word. However, I believe that Ukraine has only agreed to things that they know they can handle. Ukraine seems to have both a whole fox farm behind their ear and also be more cunning than a snake pit…
Okay, easy to sit here in safety (for as long as it lasts…) and speculate or have opinions. But the way Ukraine has solved things so far, I think they are capable of wobbling through a so-called “peace agreement” as well, and come out stronger on the other side.
Small side note. But, what are we civilians doing now to prepare to meet eventualities in September?
What can we do?
Personally, I am looking for a small house that I can heat with just a wood stove. I have started slowly (a few cans per week) building up a food supply, as well as with water.
Buying vitamins and minerals and possibly medicines so there is a small stock.
Even for pets, one must plan and prepare.
Wood, heat sources.
It may sound ridiculous, but considering that what has happened in the past few weeks was something that no one could even imagine could happen, it is best to prepare for the even more unthinkable.
Considering that RU will carry out a huge amount of sabotage against our electricity infrastructure this fall, you are probably on the right track 😀
I am in the Caribbean myself – 👍
Putin has visited a command post in Kursk. The Russians are regaining ground and pushing out the Ukrainian Army. The Russians can move troops to other fronts. Putin feels that now they can defeat the Ukrainian Army. This is exactly what the Ukrainian Army wanted to happen. Because now Russia will say no to all peacekeepers from the US, which makes DJT furious and will shower the Ukrainian Army with weapons.
Today, one should probably celebrate the jubilee of the taking of Moscow as one should.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_la_Gardie_Campaign
Of course you should, have been celebrating all evening.
Oops, was it the anniversary today?! I actually didn’t think about that when I made the reference to the year of grace 1610! – Champagne will have to wait until Friday instead, 415 years late…