In 2026, it is only Ukraine that masters it, but RU has learned the lesson the hard way and built a strategic reserve after the format that exists up against the Baltics. They have traditional capabilities/warfare paired with drone weapons, and some protection against drones.
These are units trained by veterans in Ukraine and equipped with new equipment, but they probably lack the in-depth acute work experience of being hunted prey in Ukraine, so they still have a bit of fighting spirit left before they die. It’s a Russian thing not to pair war-weary victims with new recruits, so there is a risk of transferring the knowledge of how hellish Russian outdoor life is – it must be self-learned slowly so that one has served as expendable ammunition before understanding the extent of having a lifespan of less than two days on the active front, ideally it should take two days.
Probably, they have relied a bit on letter agencies and ensured that there are enough Special Operations Forces capabilities in this new military district.
In the Leningrad military district, established 2 years ago or so, there should be under 100,000 fully equipped units – mechanized with artillery and armored vehicles. It is likely that the command structure is in place, along with rear support, storage, and logistics.
Now I don’t remember what we wrote, but there were some AC and divisions that formed the backbone, I believe, and we have seen very few new T90M or BMP-4 at the fronts.
In addition, Russia has its strategic drone weapons and then front-line drone weapons that they decided to significantly expand following the Ukrainian model – both accessible to the Baltics.
They have been able to calmly build all the radar and all the launch pads they need in Belarus because Ukraine is not allowed to engage them. The USA has also now approached Belarus, making it even more difficult for Ukraine to act preventively in the area.
Those 23 drones entering Poland were also to test navigation with SIM cards from the EU.
There is no shortage of warnings from Ukraine that Russia is up to something fishy with the focus on the Baltics – and recently all internet has been cut off in Russia.
Everyone wants to believe that it’s because Putin is running between the ditches to escape the lynch mob, but it’s more likely that it has to do with an escalation.
In Ukraine, RU is not making progress, they understand that, so we probably have never had a higher risk for the Baltics than now.
Hungary cannot open an attack vector down into Ukraine due to the election, and Transnistria will soon be lost to RU as well.
As soon as Ukraine’s interceptor drones are integrated with the Balts and in Poland, it’s over, and the German brigade is in the process of regrouping to Lithuania, but apparently, it will take all of 2026 to drive those miles on the road.
If you, like me, follow the war, you know that Ukraine has now fought larger targets in the Pskov area three times, which is probably a job commissioned by the Balts because it is not a base area for capabilities with the final destination being Ukraine at all.
Personally, I don’t think Europe should take any chances, but I also understand that no country in Europe is ready to sacrifice a brigade of its country’s best in the Baltics (yet).
A first Geran drone with a warhead entered Lithuania from Belarus and did not explode in any high-value target at all, but out in the countryside, not because it ran out of fuel – a first small test, it was NOT detected by the defense forces and was NOT shot down.
You may remember that Poland declared a no-fly zone that RU now tested to see if it didn’t work.
The USA is pushing all buttons at once and is not our friend – we are alone with the Baltics, which is actually quite reasonable.
The USA has managed to keep the dollar strong in the Iran war, but interest rates are rising, which is also why Trump is trying to calm the markets in words, even though half of the USA’s special forces capability is heading towards the conflict area, so it couldn’t be more obvious what they are planning.
Since a major stock market correction is looming, I think it is justified to ask the question – how will Europe handle a Russian opening of a conflict in the Baltics? Little green men or them entering and securing an area?
Belgium turned out to be pro-Russian, as did the President of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Spain – a common EU response is out of the question.
France, Germany, UK, and the Nordic countries remain, and we are evidently not proactive, which still surprises me, but we recently got proof that it is because we are afraid.
Kier Starmer in the UK has big problems staying in power, but the defense forces seem to be on track at least.
France is training the Foreign Legion in Poland with UA instructors, I don’t know how many regiments.
Will these countries decide to retake territory in Southeast Estonia or Northeast Latvia by force?
Will we declare war on Russia if the USA threatens to cut off all LNG for us?
Do we have robots to indirectly combat Russia with, do we dare to target objectives in Russia when Putin threatens with nuclear weapons?
Are we prepared to endure a Geran and robot rain like we now see in the Middle East?
All of these are questions that should be the only thing European leaders are discussing now because IF Russia achieves even the slightest success in the Baltics and Europe projects weakness and indecision, then Europe will become the target for the upcoming financial crisis.
You can now see how the financial markets react to the slightest thing, and the USA is constantly adjusting, it will be the same for us, and we may also face soaring interest rates and capital flight.
There is also a new migrant crisis on the rise, a new 2015, and the EU is pointing a very big formal finger at Russia. I am a bit annoyed that I didn’t manage to publish that post before the EU pointed towards Russia, which I started working on when Spain declared amnesty.
You can be completely sure that Russia is heading towards a loss in Ukraine, but that does not automatically mean that Europe will come out unscathed.
The USA has just put new pressure on Ukraine to give up land and agree to a ceasefire.
Europe has exactly one chance to come out of this unscathed, and that is to meet it resolutely and violently in the Baltics when the day comes.
If we don’t, a financial crisis will wash over us, and we will have several government crises throughout Europe with the USA keeping us on a tight leash and sabotaging everything.
If we show weakness, everyone will try to eat us from the inside.
I believe that Ukraine can put the puzzle together themselves (because Zelensky has a paid subscription to Johan No.1) and that they are therefore ready to venture on a violent offensive this year.
At some point this fall, I don’t know when, the interceptor drones have been delivered, and the German brigade is fully regrouped in the Baltics, but before that, it’s high risk.
We probably have SOF in the Baltics now but should of course regroup our mech brigades there pronto.
Since this is a new conflict arena, everyone believes they will come out as winners, and then we will know how it went after a while. We actually have so much information already that we can establish the following:
-RU has experience of combat under FPV and they have their own drone weapon that Ukraine does not like at all.
-Europe has zero experience of combat under FPV and we have not yet absorbed this experience from Ukraine, we have started it a bit slowly.
-Europe does not have its own drone weapon, and our artillery is within RU drone range.
-Europe has top aviation at 10-15 bases in Europe that can be reached with Gerand drones.
-Europe has top aviation but probably no large stocks of missiles or JDAMs.
-RU units have shown they can endure quite difficult conditions in the Ukraine war.
-RU has Geran cassettes on numerous ships from the shadow fleet surrounding Europe.
-RU can send 500 Gerans towards targets in Europe 3-4 times a week where we probably won’t shoot down many.
-Europe’s military leaders have already understood that our mech units will be droned out in the Baltics, it was discussed a while ago if you remember in a military game.
-UA interceptor drones are probably under production for us as well, but most of it has probably been sent to MENA. BUT!!!!! It’s not just a drone – it’s a UNIT where different capabilities work together. We are not there at all yet – far from it.
-The Baltics have 6,500 in their standing defense forces and can mobilize an additional 40,000-100,000.
-RU has scouted every darn bridge and weak point in our transport networks in the Baltics, Poland, and Germany.
-Belarus has carried out some kind of mobilization and many smaller exercises.
-RU’s Baltic Fleet will be cautious because Ukraine can drone it away or it will be sacrificed if RU assesses that UA will drone it at the dock – interesting to consider that scenario.
-EU cannot agree to send 90 billion to Ukraine – all decisions regarding operations in the Baltics will not be able to pass a vote.
-Decisions to send units to the Baltics will need to be made in each country’s parliaments.
-Primorsk is completely knocked out, and Europe boards and stops the shadow fleet.
Conclusion –
The southern part of Estonia and the northeastern part of Latvia are undefended, so if RU would like to go in and take some miles of terrain to then go on the defensive, it is fully feasible without warning – the units are already in the area, and we could all wake up to that news tomorrow.
An “little green men” scenario would actually just give Europe the chance to move the brigades into the Baltics, so a greater likelihood that they take terrain and then threaten us with everything as usual.
When the German brigade is in Lithuania and the FPV drones are in place, the Suwalki Gap cannot be closed, but today it can be closed – a substantial screen of interceptors is needed, but only for a limited period when the mech brigades are to be moved through.
If the decision is made to close the Suwalki Gap, then the ambition level is to conquer the Baltics, and then more units are needed than what is in the area today. Even though the drone weapon allows the use of fewer maneuver brigades.
Conclusion 2 will be that if we see any movement of Russian capabilities into Belarus or the Pskov area, then they have chosen war but that brigades are enough. No buildup like in 2022 is needed.
A lot of heavy equipment is already in place in hidden depots, so we should also keep an eye on soft vehicle convoys.
First of all, it is good for Ukraine if we get involved, and I think it’s time to really hit Russia hard.
And secondly, UA will not be able to give up much to us in 2026 if they are to emerge victorious from their own war.
Exciting to say the least, and likewise if we see troop movements from us into the Baltics, then we chose peace. Because the only thing RU wouldn’t be able to handle is 10 mech brigades dug in the forests in eastern Baltics, but they must arrive before RU attacks.
I have decided not to believe that Trump is playing a huge double game to exhaust US capability against Iran so that Russia and China can rise. Occam’s razor applies, and Israel has pushed for action against Iran, so the reasons are legitimate.
But Trump has agreed with Russia on several issues, and it is highly likely that the USA will not lift a finger if RU jumps into the Baltics.
Just like the bank, the USA is not our friend, and the USA is now doing things that benefit them – if they wanted a full-on Cold War with a weak and divided Europe buying security from them at five times the market price, it is not unlikely that they are striving for that again. After all, Roosevelt made a significant effort during the Yalta Conference to get there, so nothing was random, he had to make himself unfriendly with Churchill, sacrifice Poland, and curry favor with Stalin to get there.
The next area to be invaded if the Baltics kicks off is naturally Svalbard, and the Ukrainian drones can’t reach there at all. RU currently has all capabilities in the Northern Fleet, and maybe one brigade would be enough?
Marine SOF for the Northern Fleet and Pacific Fleet have at least been withdrawn from Ukraine.
Consider here that the USA will yawn and fall asleep over that too, maybe even hope that we ask them to fortify Greenland?
The risk is currently extremely high in my strong opinion, even if Ukraine will perform miracles in 2026.
Then we have Taiwan, and China also has a window to deal with there because once the calm settles over Iran and the USA sails its fleet to the waters around Taiwan, that window is closed.
The book on which I base all my prophecies has the following timeline:
-Russia attacks Europe to lock us in.
-Iran rises and attacks Israel, Israel is completely overrun because as soon as they start to falter, every MENA country decides that the chance to obliterate Israel must not be missed.
-China initiates war in Asia, and our current global conflict is mainly fought in Asia between China and the USA because the two previous conflicts were distractions that China paid for.
With small adjustments, you can see that we have already reached 2/3, and Europe as a collective has chosen to prepare almost not at all since 2022, even though we should have started already in 2007 when Putin gave his speech, or in 2014 when Donbass was attacked – if they haven’t read the book, do you think it could be that simple?
By the way.
There aren’t many ways to actually make the Iranian regime fall.
So if one supports Europe’s restraint and that Iran should fall, one daydreams completely unrealistically.
One must choose between a war that could have been conducted better or further mass murder by the regime until they have raped, tortured, and killed the last women showing too much hair.
Since the regime increased violence as the protests escalated, we had stopped with some kind of Afghanistan scenario where women first had to cover their entire head, then only show one eye, then no eyes at all, and finally not be allowed to leave the house because the dictatorship seems to have a particular aversion towards women.
The number of factors affected in larger conflicts like this is very high and can never be predicted.
What probably saved the USA is that Iran chose not to carry out a first strike – that is something I will ponder a lot about, and historians will eventually consider my view that China and Russia messed up badly.
If the 5th fleet had sunk in flames at the dock in a cloud of 500 robots and seven thousand shahids, and China’s and Russia’s fleets had reinforced the area, the USA would probably have howled but retracted their claws since they accounted for a large part of the fleet in the nearby region that would keep the Hormuz open. It hasn’t gone perfectly yet, but the USA is working on it.
The USA was lucky that Iran/China/Russia made the major misjudgment of our world war.
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Russian losses 2026-03-26
High KWIA, artillery, UAVs, and soft vehicles.
AFU reports:
Ukraine has attacked an oil refinery
An oil refinery and a natural gas port in the Leningrad region of Russia were reportedly targeted in a drone attack overnight, according to reports from both Russia and social media. It remains to be seen how extensive the damage is.
“Ukrainian drones attack major oil and gas facilities in Russia’s Leningrad Oblast for second night in row”
https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drones-attack-major-energy-facilities-in-russias-leningrad-oblast-for-second-night-in-a-row/
Normally, it is not possible to rely solely on FIRMS; oil refineries usually also show activity during normal operations. I haven’t taken the time to check how it looked before, but there are photos and videos available, so it’s not necessary. It could also be the opposite, that fires are not visible on FIRMs, for example, if there are a lot of clouds.
“💥 Russia: Ukraine appears to have struck the Kirishi Oil Refinery complex in Leningrad region, 100km southeast of St. Petersburg. No photos/videos available at this time.”
https://bsky.app/profile/igorsushko.bsky.social/post/3mhwpl5fppc2n
https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:lfxlhdtxkyczcuroq4q2umqy/bafkreiajfy4ncfmivgxv6lsnp27ihh5tic55bzj6h6lfngd5s2sov7ehte
“Ukraine war latest: Ukraine’s air defense downs 97% of Russian kamikaze drones in rare mass daytime strike”
https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-ukraines-air-defense-downs-97-of-russian-kamikaze-drones-in-rare-mass-daytime-strike/
Thank you for an interesting post, Johan no 1.👍👍👍
Some thoughts: Since October/November, the war has turned in Ukraine’s favor. Starlink is one reason, but could there be more? Is there something else that Ukraine now has that it didn’t have before?
It would be interesting to know for me who is not as knowledgeable as the rest of you in military matters.
Another thing. Does Israel accept that Trump ends the war even though the old regime remains in Iran? Or is Israel content with having defeated Hezbollah in Lebanon? I think there is a lack of coherence in both the USA’s and Israel’s planning of the war.
But the Ukrainian drone strikes in Primorsk and Ust-Luga will probably determine the war in Ukraine’s favor.
I’m not quite optimistic enough to say that the tide has turned in favor of Ukraine, but we have seen tendencies that it may be starting to shift.
Since October 2023, the Russians have been advancing almost every day. It’s usually just a few hundred meters here and there, although they have also had larger successes like with Avdiivka and eventually Pokrovsk.
What we have seen recently is that Ukraine has managed to push them back in some places. Kupiansk is probably the biggest success, but they have also recaptured several villages, etc. At the same time, it is still the case that Russia continues to advance a few hundred meters almost every day.
So far, Russia is taking more land than Ukraine liberates, albeit at a slow pace, but we are seeing more and more successes from Ukraine as well.
I hope, and expect, that we will soon see a real turning point where Ukraine liberates more than they lose. This turnaround may be as slow as it has been for the Russians, but we also know that it can suddenly happen very quickly. The Russians seem eager to retreat when they encounter too much resistance. I guess it has to do with their motivation probably not being the best and the commanders starting to retreat is affecting everyone.
The reason, I believe, is a combination of Ukraine doing well with UAVs, both in terms of manufacturing and improving them, but also surely becoming much better at handling and using them smartly.
This, combined with my belief that Russia has weakened, especially in terms of replenishing with capable manpower but surely also in terms of equipment + lacking motivation.
Now the question was posed to Johan, looking forward to his analysis (perhaps the world’s best marksmanship has become even sharper?).
Good response from you MXT. Thank you.
Thank you!
👍
Answered below.
Thank you for today’s yellow wall! 👍
I maintain my analysis that Russia will not seriously engage in the Baltic states.
However, it is important for Russia to project a threat.
If Europe sees Russia as toothless, we wouldn’t need to fear intervening in Ukraine. We wouldn’t need to invest in our own defense either, but could give everything we have to Ukraine. As long as we believe Russia can escalate the war and attack, we must of course prepare ourselves for that.
I am convinced that Russia is content with disrupting us enough so that we don’t dare give everything we have to Ukraine. One could argue that the threat is real because even Ukraine warns that Russia could strike in the Baltics, but it’s impossible to determine if these reports are planted by Russia or if Ukraine is using them to awaken Europe.
I almost hope I am wrong. If Russia were to enter the Baltics, Europe would eventually wake up and realize that we are truly at war with Russia, and they would soon be defeated.
However, my analysis could be wrong IF China chooses to actively support Russia to enter the war OR if Trump and Putin are so close that Putin knows Trump will actively help prevent Europe from defending the Baltics.
I agree with you that the US wouldn’t lift a finger, but the question is whether they will actively oppose us and if Putin is so confident that it will happen.
—-
If Russia were to send 500 drones a day to Europe, they wouldn’t be able to send 500 drones into Ukraine. If they could manage to send twice as many Shahed/Geran drones a day into Ukraine, they would presumably do so.
I got curious about the costs of Shahed/Geran.
There are various estimates of the manufacturing cost of a Shahed/Geran, ranging from $20,000 to $80,000. The latter is what I have seen most often, but if we calculate at $50,000, then 1,000 a day would cost $50 million USD. Multiplying that by 365 gives $18 billion USD. Russia’s military budget is around $140-150 billion USD from the last figures I saw.
1,000 drones a day would then account for nearly 13% of the budget. I don’t think Russia can afford that.
On the other hand, they may have reduced the price to manufacture them for $10,000, which would change things. But the question remains, if they could send more into Ukraine, why do they refrain from doing so?
When it comes to projecting threats, deploying troops and equipment near the Baltic states works, as there is a reason to have a reserve (also, they never know if the Baltics might get bold if they see Russia as weak). But when it comes to saving drones, whose production capacity is unknown, there isn’t quite the same reason.
Furthermore, if Russia is truly on the brink of collapse, it is not impossible that we could see them pull an Iran and in a last desperate attempt, send drones into Europe to make us think the cost is too high and force Ukraine to surrender.
It seems like it could almost work for Iran, as suddenly the US wants to make a deal. A deal they probably could have had before the war if they had started by threatening war instead of directly starting it.
Thank you for what I consider a very good analysis (which is very surprising). 👍
Thank you! 👍
👍
Another thing. The drone meetings in Vyborg are very close to Finland. To reach Lake Saimaa, one must pass through Vyborg. On the Finnish side, there are three locks, on the Russian side, five which Finland leases from Russia. Unique. Yes, it resembles the British lease of Hong Kong or the Portuguese lease of Macao. But it works well between Finland and Russia, so the Finns have free access to the lake, which is the fourth largest in Europe. But as I said, the locks are in danger if Ukraine continues to bomb Vyborg.
Interesting!
Let’s hope the locks survive, it would be a shame to cause any trouble for Finland.
I seem to recall that the Russians have chosen to either completely or partially either inhibit the agreement or limit it. However, it was a while ago that I heard the channel being mentioned, and it was in connection with Finland applying for NATO membership, when the Russians threatened both with the other and the end of the world, and a little more.
Better if Finland took back Viborg if the war ends well. With Finnish architecture and design, Viborg would become as beautiful as Saint Petersburg 🇫🇮
💯 The white city. Unfortunately, the Russian devils have destroyed it just like everything else they steal.
One thing that I’m pondering that I can’t quite figure out, and that you also touch upon in the post as well as in many previous ones. Regarding:
“…the only thing RU wouldn’t be able to handle is 10 mech brigades buried in the forests of eastern Baltics but they would have to arrive before RU attacks.”
How would these 10 mech brigades survive drone warfare if placed in eastern Baltics? Or are they just deterrents in terms of showing some determination/putting mech weight behind the words?
At least 40 percent of Russia’s oil export capacity has been halted due to repeated Ukrainian attacks, reports Reuters.
During the night, a Ukrainian drone crashed in an industrial area near one of Russia’s largest oil refineries in the northern parts of the country, the news agency writes. A total of 20 drones were shot down, according to the governor.
Strategically important ports on the Baltic Sea, such as Björkö and Ust-Luga, have temporarily halted the loading of crude oil and other export goods due to Ukraine’s attacks.
Trump Approval Rating
Regardless of whether Johan is right, that Trump would do what is good for the USA (and not as I suspect, what is good for Trump) it does not seem that the American population is particularly satisfied with his efforts.
Now I think we will soon see the curves flatten out, can’t really think of anything else he could come up with that could worsen it further. On the other hand, you never know where you have him, he can surely surprise!
The Economist, -18%
The New York Times report gives -16%.
Saw that Fox News released a survey as well. It’s a bit interesting. They are generally pro-Trump but they report the highest dissatisfaction of all with 59%. However, they also have the highest percentage of satisfied.
-18% is the total.
Interesting that it is the Republicans and the independents who have become more dissatisfied towards the end while the Democrats’ attitude seems unchanged (albeit at a very low level). Could be a sign that there is still room for decline if the Republicans’ dissatisfaction continues to grow.
T o m Krasnov’s own neighbors 🤩
https://omni.se/a/Pdd5n5
Trump
“German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius criticizes Donald Trump regarding the warfare in Iran. During a meeting in Australia, he expresses concern that the USA seems to have no strategy in Iran.
– What worries me the most about the war is that there was no consultation, that there is no clear strategy or clear goal,” he says according to ABC Australia.
He is also upset that the American president called NATO “cowards” because the alliance is not helping the USA in the Strait of Hormuz. Pistorius reminds that Trump’s administration has previously urged European countries to focus more on Europe.
– Now it sounds different.” https://omni.se/tyska-kritiken-mot-trump-finns-ingen-strategi/a/oEEMVg
Iran
“The oil price is rising on Thursday morning after conflicting signals from Iran regarding the willingness to end the war, which in practice has closed the Strait of Hormuz and increased concerns about a global energy crisis.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi states that Tehran is considering a US proposal for a ceasefire in the Persian Gulf, Reuters reports. At the same time, the country denies that any talks are ongoing and that there are no intentions for talks to de-escalate the conflict.
Shortly after 7 o’clock, Brent crude oil stands at $104 per barrel after falling 2 percent yesterday, while WTI crude oil is trading just above $92.
At the same time, the White House claims that peace talks are ongoing – something Iran rejects, while the country sets its own conditions, including control over the strategic waterway.
“Even though the US is clearly seeking a way out, neither Iran nor Israel seem interested in a quick solution,” says Sparta Commodities senior analyst Philip Jones-Lux in a comment.”
https://omni.se/oljan-stiger-efter-motstridiga-signaler-fran-teheran/a/zOO0l5
“The USA and Iran continue to say different things when it comes to negotiations about a ceasefire. The USA has submitted a proposal for an agreement and according to Donald Trump, negotiations are ongoing between the countries.
Iran pushes back against the claims. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says on state TV that submitted proposals are not the same as negotiations.
The American president claims that Iran’s leaders do not openly dare to say that they are in dialogue with the USA.
– They really want to reach an agreement, but they are afraid of being killed by their own people. They are also afraid of being killed by us, he says according to Reuters.”
https://omni.se/trump-iran-vill-ha-avtal-men-ar-radda-for-att-dodas/a/8ppPJ2
“Military personnel put together a two-minute long video montage of the biggest, most successful attacks against Iran every day, to be presented to Donald Trump. Several American sources report this to NBC News.
One of the sources describes the video update as ‘clips of things being blown up’. Typically, they tend to focus on the successes of the USA and not particularly on Iran’s actions, according to the sources.
The video montage is not the only information the president receives in his daily briefing. However, some of his allies worry that he does not get, or absorb, a comprehensive picture of the war. The sources also say that the video briefing makes Trump more frustrated about the news coverage. He is said to have asked why the news media does not pay more attention to what he sees in the clips.
The White House denies the reports, stating that Trump expects all his advisors to tell it like it is.”
https://omni.se/kallor-trump-far-hopklipp-av-irankriget-varje-dag/a/m00Kyp
“Iran has escalated its attacks against Israel and neighboring countries during Thursday morning. Israeli media report about seven attacks during Thursday forenoon and the air raid sirens have sounded over large parts of Israel. Several people have been injured, including in Kafr Qasim near Tel Aviv when parts of a cluster bomb hit, writes TT.
Bahrain and Kuwait have also reported Iranian attacks. Two people have been killed and several injured after an Iranian missile hit Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates.
The attacks come after a night of Israeli strikes against Iran. According to the Israeli military, a senior commander in the Revolutionary Guard was killed, and the USA states that over 10,000 targets have been hit during the war, writes TT.”
https://omni.se/nya-iranska-attacker-mot-israel-flera-skadade/a/bOOkBB
Yes, it has been calm for a few days but this morning it was actually quite scary.
Off-Topic
Is that why we haven’t heard much from SD lately about shutting down Public Service? 😄
Could it be as simple as PS focusing more on those leading the country and not as much on the opposition, and therefore being considered left-leaning? Or have they perhaps felt/become strongly pressured to change?
“The accusations of a left-dominated public service are false. This is stated by two debaters from the trade union think tank Katalys in DN Debatt.
According to them, public service has taken clear steps to the right. They have analyzed the content of SVT’s Agenda for six months.
Conservative, bourgeois, or liberal representatives received 70 percent of the speaking time compared to the left’s 30. Among politicians, the government coalition accounted for two-thirds. Right-wing opinion leaders received three-quarters of the speaking time.
“So, Sweden’s leading state-funded social and debate program consists largely of right-wing commentators commenting on a right-wing government’s policies,” write the debaters.”
https://omni.se/katalys-hogertyckare-favoriseras-i-svt/a/BxxMww
Katalys is definitely a truth-teller!
They are probably about as neutral truth-tellers as Bulletin, they both go hand in hand but on opposite sides of the road! 😉
The survey was not conducted by Katalys themselves, but by KvantAB.
I once worked as a statistician at a government agency. Occasionally worked as an internal consultant on such issues and related ones such as evaluating various projects. Sometimes an external consultant was hired for the latter. There was a huge difference in quality among them. Some had no idea how to satisfy the perceived wishes of the client.
Then there is a difference between placing some trust in news reporting and placing trust in surveys/analyses.
Well, there is a lot of truth to that of course. If you have already started to angle the question, the risk is greater that the answer will also be what you want.
(By the way, it reminds a lot of using AI that likes to please).
The only thing missing in their report is whether the reporting was positive or negative towards the right, right?
So if SVT has gone 70% and become positive towards SD, do they have a point, is that so?
I am still waiting for a tribute report on new nuclear power as a balance to the tribute report on the “green industrial initiatives”….
The US Department of Defense is considering redirecting military aid that was supposed to go to Ukraine to the Middle East instead, according to three sources cited by the Washington Post.
This includes air defense systems that NATO allies of the US had previously purchased to send to Ukraine.
The Pentagon’s consideration to send weapons to the Middle East instead is due to a large quantity of advanced weapons being used in the conflict against Iran. No decision has been made, the newspaper writes.
This is really bad, but is anyone really surprised? Trump does everything to prevent Ukraine from getting a victory over Russia.
As for Iran, they should be liberated from the regime they have today and become a modern democratic country, but the question is whether a thorough impact analysis was really conducted before starting to bomb.
“⚡ UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has authorized British military personnel to seize Russian shadow fleet vessels operating in UK waters.”
https://united24media.com/latest-news/uk-moves-to-strike-russian-shadow-fleet-vessels-operating-in-its-waters-17281
For a little too late – uk waters
😂 These are the drone routes Russians shows on its channels… They don’t want to admit the failures of their air defense at all.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mhxazwf4pc2t
Maybe correct?
Or maybe one wants to manufacture a reason to enter the Baltics?
Preferably a reason that indicates “they started it” so that article 5 can be questioned by appropriate players…
… hm… let’s see… appropriate players… Orban… Trump…
Not according to MXT
I find that very hard to believe.
🇪🇺🇺🇦 Zelensky: Providing Ukraine with a loan is a position agreed upon by all EU leaders at the end of 2025. The alternative to this step is a question for the EU today. If they do not unblock it, we hope for an alternative, otherwise the Ukrainian army will be underfunded.
The production of drones – long-range, interceptor drones, as well as air defense systems – will be underfunded, because we allocate money from there for both European air defense systems and American RAS-3 missiles. This is a risk for everyone. This is a risk for European security.
We can’t even give money 😭😭😭
Bedrövligt!
Fortunately, Japan has provided a bridge loan that should be sufficient for financing until the Fatso in Budapest is hopefully voted out in the upcoming election.
🔴 BREAKING: Ryska styrkor attackerade Dnipro och skadade en höghusbyggnad. Preliminärt skadades minst fem personer, enligt lokala myndigheter.
https://bsky.app/profile/united24media.com/post/3mhxaeawjlc2m
“❗️🤬 Just now in Dnipro, Shahed flew between buildings and fell on the bank. Before that, another enemy drone hit a high-rise building”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mhx7vqybyk2t
“🔥 “ATESH” destroyed a relay cabinet at a railway junction near Luhansk! As the partisans explain, this branch is a critical supply artery for the Russian army groups in the Kupyansk and Lymansk directions, where the most active fighting is currently underway.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mhx7qyszlk2t
👀 The Primorsk and Ust-Luga terminals, which serve as Russia’s primary export hubs, continue to burn following a massive attack earlier this week.
💥💥💥💥💥
“A sanctioned Russian shadow fleet tanker ALTURA was hit by an unidentified drone near the Bosphorus in the Black Sea while carrying 140,000 tons of oil. The vessel sustained damage to the deck and bridge, with water entering the engine room after the incident.”
Hmmm – many who told me that we would never see this when we discussed those proposals
Probably need a few more months of statistics to determine the trend, but it looks like construction is starting to decrease in Russia. Alternatively, they might be importing cement instead, but that should result in higher costs.
Cold weather makes it harder to pour, so the weather may have caused some projects to be delayed. The decrease in January and February could therefore be due to the unusually cold weather in Russia this winter. At the same time, cement production shouldn’t need to decrease as it is not weather-dependent in the same way.
It could be a combination of cold weather and generally decreased demand.
“Cement production continues to crater in Russia, per Rosstat. Cement production cliffs show the construction industry in Russia is collapsing.” https://bsky.app/profile/ukrainewarpod.bsky.social/post/3mhvlnuqxmk2q
A bit too early as only two months were involved but maybe towards the summer we will know?
🇺🇦👀 Zelensky: We will respond to every Russian attack. The pressure in the world on Russia is decreasing. We see changes in the sanctions policy. Therefore, unlike everyone or many in the world, Ukraine has its own sanctions – long-range capabilities. The Russians must feel the pressure.”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mhxd3qp4xk2k
This is how a WINNER speaks.
Now we will see what Europe does soon because this is not according to international law and everything we have heard before is important and the USA is probably exerting strong pressure right now.
Ukraine chose life
Maybe we can establish that it was actually Ukrainian drones now?
“The drones that crashed in the NATO countries Estonia and Latvia on Wednesday came from Russia but were fired by Ukraine, several media outlets report. Ukraine used the drones, which were loaded with explosives, in attacks against Russian targets in the Baltic Sea region.
They are said to have veered off course and crashed into a chimney at a power plant in Estonia and in a field in Latvia.
– It is probably a result of Russian electronic warfare that disrupts our drones. We do the same against Russian drones, says the Ukrainian military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko to Le Monde.
No one was injured in the drone incidents in the NATO countries, and the crashes did not result in any major material damage.”
https://omni.se/ukrainsk-expert-ryssland-som-stor-vara-dronare/a/Pddv7R
Russian attitude: nimby. A little inconsiderate towards the neighbors. Just saying.
Do we have any pictures of any of the drones?
Or the FAB bomb that was also found in Estonia?
What is the likelihood of a drone on its way to Ust Luga hitting a power plant in Estonia instead?
I admit I’m wrong when the pictures come and they are now available.
A bigger issue is that they are not shot down but no one wants to discuss that
A Russian court has stopped the Oscar-winning documentary “Mr Nobody vs Putin” from several streaming platforms in the country, writes AFP.
The film is about a teacher who secretly starts documenting how Kremlin’s war propaganda enters Russian schools.
According to the court ruling, the documentary promotes “negative attitudes” about Russia.
https://omni.se/hyllad-dokumentar-stoppas-fran-rysk-stromning/a/433Ey6
Every European politician is envious of the luxury Putin has
https://omni.se/a/Pddv7R
– It is likely a result of Russian electronic warfare disrupting our drones. We do the same to Russian drones, says Ukrainian military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko to Le Monde.
Europe is keeping up appearances. In this case, it is the United Kingdom that does not want fossil energy from the North Sea to be exploited. Better to buy from Russia or from countries around the Persian Gulf. No, that’s not right. We will save the world by refraining from using fossil energy and nuclear power. And of course, we will do that before the alternatives are ready.
One (not so) beautiful day, an even larger share than today of the voters will feel betrayed by those who currently dominate the political leadership. It will be wonderful times, or not, and the politicians and those in the media who have paved the way for the upcoming turbulence will of course be completely unaware of their responsibility. They have only worked for the greater good. Or perhaps they have strived to appear and feel good.
https://bulletin.nu/starmer-pressas-om-oljeborrning-hanvisar-till-minister
Since the oil is instead bought from another producer, the reasoning does not hold.
The same with Germany now, shut down nuclear power so fossil fuels skyrocketed instead.
I am willing to give Trump credit on the climate issue at least… the biggest hoax ever… just look at the strategic consequences for those who have fallen for this to understand where it comes from
..
The US Department of Defense is considering redirecting military aid that was supposed to go to Ukraine to the Middle East instead, according to three sources cited by the Washington Post.
This includes air defense systems that NATO allies of the US had previously purchased to send to Ukraine.
The Pentagon’s consideration to send weapons to the Middle East instead is due to a large quantity of advanced weapons being used in the warfare against Iran. No decision has been made, the newspaper reports.
The Department of Defense states that they are “ensuring that US forces and our allies have what they need to fight and win,” but they do not want to comment on the information.
Several European leaders have raised concerns that the war in the Middle East is diverting attention from the conflict in Ukraine.
It would be unfortunate if Ukraine could shoot down Russian drones.
A new level since the weapons have already been purchased and paid for.
Then Trump threatened to stop selling LNG to us as well?
Today was fun, there were many comments that needed to be answered, luckily I have finished the contract but the others need two more weeks so there is some time left.
Also received a comment on Substack about the Green Party that needs to be addressed, so the day is saved.
There was a question above that has been partly answered in two posts about the Ukrainian offensive.
So the previous two posts
“The AFU advanced to the center of Primorsky, Zaporizhia direction”
https://x.com/FreudGreyskull/status/2037122079074771279
At Stepnohirsk?
😂😂😂 This can’t possibly be true, can it? I mean, he would have said that?
(It is completely out of the question that they would have offered him the job.)
“🫠🇺🇸🇮🇷 “I said no, thank you”:
Trump claims Iran wanted to make him supreme leader
“There has never been a head of state who wanted this job less than being the head of Iran. They say, ‘I don’t want it. We would like to make you the next supreme leader.’ No, thank you. I don’t want it.””
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mhxgqpopd22e
This is not pure money as the quote might suggest, but rather promising long-term investments in the USA (over a decade has been mentioned). The numbers are inflated by almost double as it varies between 0.6 to 1.4 trillion between countries.
“US President Trump claimed he secured $2 trillion each from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE and said attacks on those countries angered them. “They got hit. No one expected that they would be hit. This made them very angry.””
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/2037098652984922484
He might as well change religion. Or maybe he can dress in Ku Klux Klan attire. Reminds me a bit of the attire of the mullahs. Personally, I don’t think he looks good in white. But his resume probably appeals to Iran.
Media really quotes everything he says but on the other hand if the US owns Iran after this war, he is not completely wrong in substance, right?
“❗️🇺🇦Ukrainian military personnel from the 28th Mechanized Brigade repelled a 🇷🇺Russian offensive in the Kostyantynivka direction.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mhxhgjqwks2k
One step closer to the opening of the strait!
“Iranian commander Alireza Tangsiri has been killed, according to Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, as reported by the New York Times.
Tangsiri was the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy and is said to have been killed in a “precise and deadly operation,” according to the statement. Several other high-ranking officers are reported to have been killed as well.
Alireza Tangsiri is identified as the one directly responsible for mining and blocking the Strait of Hormuz, according to Katz.”
https://omni.se/iransk-befalhavare-for-flottan-uppges-ha-dodats/a/5ppb3b
The negotiations for peace in Ukraine may be over, says Finnish President Alexander Stubb in an interview with the Norwegian VG.
After three rounds of talks, no new meetings are scheduled, and one reason for this may be the Iran war, according to Stubb, who has close contact with both Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky.
“But it could also be a halt in the negotiations because they have reached the end of the negotiation road and cannot move forward,” he told the newspaper.
The question of whether Russia should be allowed to take Ukrainian territory has been one of the difficult points, but the biggest problem, according to Stubb, is that he does not believe Russia wants peace.”
https://omni.se/stubb-fredssamtal-om-ukraina-kan-vara-over/a/rrr8kl
Ukraine is acting as if they are superior.
Sanctions violation, it can hardly be about anything other than doing business with Russia.
“On Thursday, the police conducted a raid on a ‘larger company’ in Sundsvall, according to the Police. Resources from the National Task Force are said to have been involved.
According to information to Sundsvalls Tidning, it concerns the aluminum smelter Kubal. Later, SVT Västernorrland also reports that they have information pointing to the company.
The police confirm that two people in leading positions connected to the company have been detained. Both are reasonably suspected of serious sanctions violations. The individuals are suspected at the lower level of suspicion, according to the Prosecution Authority.
Sundsvalls Tidning has contacted Kubal for a comment.”
Same with a company in Ireland 😡
Germany is currently mapping possible American vulnerabilities that the EU could pinpoint to influence the country. Bloomberg reports.
The EU has several possible strengths to exploit. For example, tighter regulation of tech giants such as Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta could lead to negative economic consequences for the country. European manufacturing is also important for the AI industry, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals.
In addition, European actors own American assets worth over $10 trillion.
“If Europe credibly demonstrates that scare tactics do not work, it could weaken support for Trump in Washington in the long run,” says Tobias Gehrke of the European Council on Foreign Relations to Bloomberg.
I want to claim that our need for imports is too great for us to bother with the USA right now.
If we don’t fill up the LNG reserves and there’s another cold winter, we will have serious problems.
We can probably manage a gasoline shortage, but LNG levels are already low.
Right now, the smartest thing to do is to keep completely quiet but help Ukraine and the Baltics.
Now that Johan No.1 has woken up, he can take over the afternoon shift so I can earn some money for our livelihood!
On the way to work, a little early for now
The leadership in Tehran and the leadership in Washington seem to have the same media trainer. One doesn’t know what the other has said, so while peace is on the way, it is also on the way to escalate.
No wonder if Trump wants to become an Ayatollah in Iran!
Yes, there are conflicting messages from both sides even though Trump feels a bit sharper when it comes to smoke screens.
According to Trump, an agreement is more or less in place, but Iran hasn’t even seen the agreement while rejecting the same agreement because it’s unfair, and then Trump counters by saying that Iran is asking to sign the agreement because they are desperate for peace and have no weapons left, while Iran continues to send drones and robots and Trump then wants to make it seem like the war has already been won even though it could be prolonged, and despite having won, they still need help from all NATO countries but manage perfectly well on their own and don’t want any help, but they will still remember that they didn’t get that help which was completely unnecessary and which they didn’t even ask for, and if Iran doesn’t do as the USA wants, they will knock out their energy infrastructure but then again, maybe not.
I wonder if Trump has received a manual in media handling from Putin that involves spreading as many messages as possible so that people eventually won’t bother to care about what is true.
Barely something Tage Danielsson could have come up with something similar.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-RpUlDtANyg
The manual is said to be from Roy Cohn…
This one was good
https://x.com/saltybitch_52/status/2036837553656021092?s=46&t=Vah3JXV31B9lXwZOK5gF7w
😂😂😂
I have to say that Iran is conducting a pretty good asymmetric warfare.
The mistake of not striking first is now past them.
The markets are shaking, terrorist attacks in the West, Iraq involved in the war, Hezbollah fights.
There are as many high-value targets left while the USA-Israel gets fewer in Iran.
The USA will come in and take the oil exports geographically and never leave.
It will probably end with the USA charging for patrolling the Hormuz in the future.
Israel wants a regime change so that’s probably what will happen, but the USA will likely do an Iraq on Iran and take its % of the revenues for all future.
Two refineries in the USA that have had accidents now.
More of a market fear than loss probably but interesting
Yes, that’s probably it. I checked the first one, it was still quite big but they have many so it probably won’t be an issue if someone doesn’t work out.
Striking first might have been better from a purely military tactical perspective, but probably not better politically/strategically.
Very different outcomes in American domestic opinion… and… much harder to play the victim role… so I don’t think they’ve ever wanted to play the game that way.
Is it better to drown all 10 surrounding countries until they declare war on one like Iran did instead?
JD Vance seems to be completely marginalized.
I thought Trump would win the election and then resign, but it’s not possible to hand over to Vance.
Isn’t he in Hungary right now to help Orbán win?
Israel’s plan and it probably still applies
“Iran dismisses the US proposal to end the war and calls it insufficient. A senior Iranian official says that the response has already been conveyed via Pakistan, reports Reuters.
Iran also assesses that the plan is “one-sided and unfair” and only serves the interests of the US and Israel. At the same time, there are no conditions at all for new talks, says the source.
The information comes after the US President Donald Trump, in a message on Truth Social, urged Iran to “seriously consider” the agreement that the US has put forward to achieve a ceasefire.
Trump claims that Iran has been “militarily obliterated, with zero chance of a comeback.””
https://omni.se/iran-avfardar-usa-s-krav-ensidigt-och-orattvist/a/ExxbOa
“Ukraine brings back 15 children from Russian-occupied territories”
“❗️🇺🇦Ukrainian Border Guards destroyed a rare 🇷🇺Russian mobile radio relay communication station R-416G-MS in Luhansk region. This modern enemy system provided digital communication between the frontline and command posts. The approximate cost of such equipment is $600,000.”
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3mhxt6n2kys2r“
What will happen in a few months?
Is that when Russia plans to attack the Baltics and Trump just plans to stand by and cry for us?
“🇺🇸🤔 Trump on NATO over Iran: This was a test for NATO. It was a test of whether you would help us. You didn’t have to, but if you didn’t, we’re going to remember that. Just remember this—a number of months from now. Remember my words. There’s an expression: “Never forget.””
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mhxuivcnzs2z
See comment regarding the Russians’ fake drone tracks over the Baltic above…
Not according to you, I saw above 🧐
Sigh, Trump has really messed that up. It seems like Putin has told him what NATO is, that it’s an attack pact controlled by the USA. And apparently, discussing the matter with other NATO members before the attack was not an option.
I think he’s trying to get the USA out of NATO, he has his own fantastic gang of like-minded people now, what was it called.. something Board of Peace?..
Instead Bored of peace 🕊️
Good, keep those funds until Orbán gives in on the support for Ukraine.
Then we will still block the funds to Hungary if Orbán remains in power after the election, regardless of whether he has given in or not. They will just end up in his pockets anyway.
“⚡ The EU has effectively stalled approval of a €16 billion defense loan for Hungary after Budapest blocked a separate €90 billion financial package intended for Ukraine.”
https://bsky.app/profile/united24media.com/post/3mhxuhufndv2i
https://united24media.com/latest-news/eu-freezes-eur16b-to-rearm-hungary-after-orban-blocks-ukraine-funding-17299“
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump on Iran:
We have knocked out close to 90% of launchers and probably more than 90% of the missiles themselves. They are begging to make a deal, not me. Obama chose Iran over Israel. One of their missiles went 2,500 miles; they supposedly didn’t have a missile like that.
The UK didn’t want to get dragged in; we don’t want to get dragged into their wars either. The UK’s aircraft carriers are toys compared to what we have. They are now admitting to themselves that they have been decisively defeated. They are telling to people, “This is a disaster—they know it.”
They’re talking to us because they have a disaster on their hands. They’re defeated. They now have a chance to make a deal, but that’s up to them. They are begging to make a deal. We’ll see if we can reach the right one. If they make the right deal, then the Hormuz Strait will open up.
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3mhxugjfmk22z
I believe Iran still has the capability.
Now Trump is back to smearing Ukraine again.
“🇺🇦 Donald Trump claims on social media that the U.S. intercepted Ukrainian government communications discussing a plan to redirect funds to support Joe Biden’s reelection campaign.”
https://bsky.app/profile/slavaukraini033.bsky.social/post/3mhxuw6usck2y
Damn Biden for deceiving Ukraine 😡
😂
Regarding Iran. The people can never take power if the armed forces are loyal to the regime and prepared to do “whatever it takes” (Quote from Mario Draghi in a different context.)
To assess Trump’s performance, we probably have to wait until we see the results. This has been said before on the forum and I agree.
I wonder how many times Trump has said that Iran is defeated.
I agree. Besides, he has “bombed the shit out of” Iran several times now.
Well, we haven’t noticed any uprising of the people. Some of the diaspora may have sensed the morning air when the war started, but nothing is happening in Iran (as far as we know), and that is surely due to what you write, those with weapons are on the regime’s side.
Iran has been defeated almost every day since the war started.
See my comment further up that partly refers to it:
https://johanno1.se/sv/ukraina-daglig-uppdatering-26-mars-2026/#comment-75131
Those who dared to stand up against the weapons were wiped out while Trump played 🌮 and released deadline after deadline as he was about to enter Iran. When the regime had already killed a factor of tens of thousands and the protests had subsided, as those who had been at the forefront of the revolt no longer exist, well then he steps in. Talk about not seizing the moment.
The following has happened –
Israel has armed groups in the country and is trying to win over the army on the citizens’ side.
They are fighting against the IRGC and Basij and threatening them with SMS messages all day.
Right now, they have asked citizens to stay indoors and not be on the streets.
The first hit-and-runs against street patrols started a few weeks ago.
-It’s too early.
BUT if it fails when it does happen, then there is zero and nothing gained, just an even more furious Iran that will be an even bigger threat in the future.
Darn, SMS is completely dangerous, they will give up immediately!
If they don’t give up, they have to resort to heavier artillery and send MMS, then they fall dead. 💀
Having fun I see, there are movies with IRGC and Bashij leaving for Pakistan and Afghanistan.
The street postings are empty.
Iranians playing drone sounds and everyone at the postings run away.
“USA’s war against Iran has put Europe’s leaders in an impossible position. The pressure to act to bring down the soaring fuel prices is increasing from their voters, at the same time they risk being punished by the same voters if they join the war, writes New York Times’ Mark Landler in an analysis. That option is seen as politically unsustainable, he writes.
For Europe, Russia is still the biggest threat – and every step Donald Trump takes in the Middle East brings economic, diplomatic, and geopolitical consequences for Ukraine, writes The Telegraph’s foreign correspondent Adrian Blomfield. Even though Trump denies it, the two wars are on the verge of merging, he notes in an analysis.
So far, the Iranians do not seem willing to end the war that Trump has started. The clock is ticking, and the question is whether it is already too late for him to negotiate a way out, writes CNN’s Stephen Collinson. The war could then develop into a catastrophic spiral with consequences that are “too terrible to imagine”.”
If Europe bends to the USA because we have shut down all our production and are now dependent on buyers, so we are forced to throw Ukraine under the bus.
Then I get angry.
Time for Europe to Drill-Baby-Drill, a bit late in the game, but there is some gas here and there, Holland has some, and there’s more to be extracted in the Norwegian Sea, there’s probably some outside Italy as well, and of course Norway. It’s a bit annoying that the Norwegian oil barons will get even richer, and happier, but I guess that’s the price to pay if Europe doesn’t want to freeze in the dark this winter.
“Zelenskyy has arrived in Saudi Arabia for important meetings. “We appreciate the support and stand with those who are ready to work together with us for security.” – the president wrote.”
Good good 👍
🎙️Is the U.S. diverting some munitions that were meant for Ukraine to the Middle East? 🇺🇸 Trump: We do that all the time. We have a lot of munitions. Sometimes we take from one and use for another.
🇺🇸🇩🇪🇺🇦 Trump: I heard the head of Germany say, “This is not our war” for Iran. I said, well, Ukraine is not our war—we helped. I thought it was a very inappropriate statement to make, but he made it, and he can’t erase it.
It’s Israel’s war. Mertz is right. Trump is wrong.
Agree. Shouldn’t Israel, through the Christian right, have the Republicans in their pocket, maybe some sensible person in the White House, if there is any, would have gotten Trump to continue the discussions with Iran.
What do you think will happen with China’s large dollar dump if no one sells oil to them in a currency other than the dollar 🧐
Or Europe’s large dollar dump when we now only have the US to choose from for the purchase of LNG and oil in addition to Norway 🧐
Well, then they probably just have to pay in Dollars, or help Iran more actively.
But I also think that the USA (Trump) is in the process of acquiring so many enemies all over the world, that it will eventually become unsustainable, and countries will seek other less volatile trading partners. You can’t let your economy depend on the mood of a defiant 6-year-old with cement in the sandbox and the toy car behind the heater.
I saw above MXT that Trump’s approval ratings are going down.
I’m starting to wonder if he cares?
This war in Iran was never approved by Congress or the Senate (or whoever is supposed to approve).
If you can start a war without caring, you can probably do most things – that’s what I think?
Yes, that is the risk, that he chooses to go for full dictatorship in connection with the midterm election if he realizes he has no chance.
The more he realizes that he has against him, the more rabid he will become. It’s never his fault. ICE will have a lot to deal with.
Proxima above about the war shifting in Ukraine’s favor and why, and MXT response.
The pieces are in place and now RU and UA offensives are to be played out but there is A LOT that indicates that UA has the upper hand. So we are not yet in the offensive period, it will come in a few weeks when the ground is ready.
What could crash the party –
-China enters with a lot of anti-drone capabilities operated by Chinese at the frontlines, which could change the balance in one stroke. For example, their launch platforms for loitering AI drones or anti-drone weapons. The drone weapon accounts for 80% of the losses.
-The USA, by cutting off LNG and Oil, manages to force Europe to pressure Ukraine to stop.
-This year’s loan to Ukraine is being withheld in its entirety by the EU, causing a significant decrease in war material production, a slightly longer lead time.
If none of this happens, Ukraine will win the war. So far, over 4 years, something has always come from the USA or Europe that has ruined it, so yes, this would be the first time we wouldn’t ruin it for Ukraine.
Thank you for the response.👍👍👍
MXT tries to respond by pasting your arguments and then my response, let’s see how it goes. If I misquote or attribute things to you that you haven’t said, it’s intentional.
I format my responses in bold – I can’t see how it looks until after I’ve posted 😀
I also want to respond regarding the drones that you believe have now been clarified as Ukrainian according to your comment above. You also posted an interesting map circulating in Russian media about the drones’ route through the Baltics, and you received an interesting comment below – maybe it’s because RU is trying to find a casus belli, someone wrote.
-have we seen pictures of the downed drones?
-were they shot down, initially no one knew what they were presumably, and Poland had a no-fly zone over Poland and the Baltics after those 23 Russian drones. The fact that they were not shot down is WORRISOME.
-if a drone goes off course due to jamming of telemetry and crashes, what is the likelihood of it crashing into a power plant?
-there was also a violation with Russian aircraft and a FAB bomb that landed in Estonia, can’t find the source now.
I will give up on the drones when I have seen pictures proving they are Ukrainian or Zelensky apologizes for his drones crashing in the Baltics.
—
MXT: I stand by my analysis that Russia will not seriously enter the Baltics.
“Seriously” – not at all or where is the line, are the little green men, which until today was my main scenario, serious or not, some flexibility is hinted. I have probably now abandoned only little green men because I don’t think Russia has the time, so if the little green men come, increased aggression will follow shortly thereafter.
MXT:
Ok, if Russia knows the war in Ukraine is not progressing and it’s a slow downward spiral as I usually describe. Do they escalate or de-escalate – what is more Russian.
What would Russia lose by starting a conflict in the Baltics, how do you think Europe would retaliate?
The USA will not support us with the Baltics, I think everyone understands that now.
Many countries in the EU will not want to participate – do you think the EU can agree to go to war with Russia?
What if a financial crisis occurs simultaneously with a Russian aggression against the Baltics and there is capital flight from Europe due to hostilities?
MXT
BUT of course my analysis could be wrong IF China chooses to actively support Russia so they engage in the war OR if Trump and Putin are so close that Putin knows Trump will actively help prevent Europe from defending the Baltics.
China probably has huge problems to deal with right now and there is probably quite a loud argument about how to proceed with everything – all oil and LNG exporters to them are (soon) controlled by the USA and no one will sell in yuan. Should they dump the pile of dollars or not?
Where they are heading now we will know in a while, but they have the choice to submit and bow deeply or escalate 😀
I agree with you that the USA will not lift a finger, but the question is whether they will actively oppose us and whether Putin is so sure that it will happen.
The USA now has control over our LNG and oil – if they wanted to oppose us, they could and that’s bad enough. Will they do it – probably not.
MXT
If Russia were to send 500 drones a day to Europe, it would mean they could no longer send 500 drones into Ukraine. If they could manage to send twice as many Shahed/Geran drones a day into Ukraine, they would presumably do so.
Come on now?
You post every day that RU sends 9000 FPV drones, 250 FAB, and with 2-3 day intervals they send off 500 drones and 20 robots to Ukraine, and in between 150-200 daily.
I wrote 3-4 times a week but don’t forget that the cassettes with Geran at the shadow fleet for a first strike are already in place.
But yes – maybe you understand why I urgently oppose Trump’s attempt at a ceasefire because then all capability would be within reach.
MXT:
I got a bit curious about the costs of Shahed/Geran.
On the other hand, they may have come down in price so they manufacture them for $10,000, and then it’s a whole different story. But at the same time, the question remains, if they could send more into Ukraine, why do they refrain from doing so?
I don’t paste everything in, but here is an argument that if they had more, they would have shot more towards Ukraine?
And that they are expensive and for that reason will not be sent to Europe?
I turn the question around – why hasn’t RU sent all newly built T90M, BMP-4, newly produced robots, BTR-80, and all conscripts or their entire manpower reserve to Ukraine?
Why do soldiers run on crutches or ride horses when they have new production?
Why did they use a lot of T55 and unmodified T72 when there were T90M available, and why aren’t all FSB special forces in Ukraine?
Why haven’t the Arctic and Pacific fleets sailed into the Black Sea and joined the war (maybe not a good idea as they would have been sunk…)
Point – just because the capability exists, it’s not always present in Ukraine applies to all other equipment.
When it comes to projecting threats, it works to deploy troops and equipment on the border near the Baltics, so there is a reason to actually have a reserve (also, they never know if the Baltics might get ideas if they see that Russia is weak). But saving on drones that no one knows exactly how many they can produce, there isn’t quite the same reason for.
Isn’t the drone weapon the most important type of weapon today, Ukraine states that 80% of the losses are due to drones.
Then, if Russia is truly on the brink of collapse, it is of course not impossible that we will see them pull an Iran and in a last desperate attempt send drones into Europe so that we find the cost too high and force Ukraine to surrender.
How many, apart from Johan No.1, suggested that Iran would be the guys who went under in a huge fireworks display?
Regardless of all my responses in bold above – no one else, including you, has provided a sensible explanation as to why we haven’t sent our brigades into the Baltics.
I think I know why – Ukraine participated with a small drone group in the Hedgehog 2025 exercise and made minced meat of the mechanized units.
https://militaeraktuell.at/en/hedgehog-2025-analysts-expect-nato-learning-effect-in-drone-warfare/
If that’s the case – don’t you think Russia knows it?
Is the Baltics a strategic goal for Russia – I believe it is.
Will it become easier or harder over time to attack – probably harder as Europe catches up and the Balts remine the border?
Our mechanized units should have already been in the Baltics before Zapad 25 according to the agreements we have. I think this was the third exercise Ukraine participated in and each time the West gets a beating from the drones.
I turn the argument around – Finland has strengthened its defense readiness against Russia since 2022 and in the Baltic states, the USA has probably reduced its presence, so overall it’s a weakening.
Is Finland then wrong?
If your reasoning were correct and we have nothing to fear from Russia, wouldn’t it be smart to deploy standing brigades in Europe in the Baltics to tie up Russian troops?
The absence of our brigades in the Baltics in violation of existing agreements when Russia is in full war in Ukraine is directly irresponsible.
You wouldn’t have read these posts about the brigades being in the Baltics because it takes a lot to get through 10 mechanized brigades – threshold effect. Yes, there will be drone deaths like crazy, but RU gets stuck.
Also, Europe’s Chief of Defense doesn’t listen to you, and everyone says that Russia can start a limited attack today and within a few years a full war with NATO. But yes, they don’t say that Russia will do it of course 😀
I’m reading what you’re writing but still maintain that I don’t believe Russia will attack the Baltics in the near future.
A few old men on the wrong side of the border, a few drones that have “strayed” and of course continued (attempts) at sabotage in Europe, etc. etc. but I don’t believe in an invasion.
Not until the situation in Ukraine has changed significantly (that either side has gained a huge advantage or that there will be some form of peace agreement).
No one believed that Russia would attack Ukraine, but they did. Now everyone thinks Russia will attack the Baltics. We’ll see later if they did.
Regardless, I’m also writing that we must prepare for it even though I simultaneously believe that the best course of action would be to make sure Ukraine beats the crap out of Russia.
I wouldn’t mind either if some mechanized units were stationed there (why not let European countries conduct rotating exercises near the Russian border so there are always resources on site?).
I have had 3 scenarios –
1. small green men that I considered the main act until today.
2. go in and take ground in the Eastern Baltic and go on the defensive.
3. full invasion, which was the last resort, but then the Baltic Sea fleet, the drones, and everything is needed. I have seen that as incredible.
However, RU is constantly testing the waters and as soon as something gets an attractive probability, it goes up on the list and if they can, they will reconquer the entire Baltics.
If a few miles in the Eastern Baltic that Europe dares not do anything about serve a purpose – I think that’s probably the main act.
Russia shows that they dare without consequences.
Russia threatens full war with Europe (which will not happen).
The financial crisis hits with full force, and since the threat of war is imminent (which it is not), we experience capital flight.
I believe, or guess, but based on the excellent information available on this blog, the following:
Things that are For Russia to invade/take a piece of the Baltics:
– Russia wants better control over the Baltic Sea.
– Create a land corridor to Kaliningrad.
– The USA under Trump will not stand up to reclaim some land in the Baltics.
– It’s easy initially. And reclaiming land from entrenched and buried orcs is difficult, preferably requires air superiority and napalm.
– Shift focus away from Ukraine.
– Europe still does not have the ability to wage drone warfare.
– The EU and NATO are divided, which is a common goal for Trump and Putin, and probably also Xi.
Things that are Against Russia invading/taking a piece of the Baltics.
– We can block the Baltic Sea for the shadow fleet, but paradoxically its significance has decreased now that Ukraine successfully bombs the oil ports.
– We in Europe have a modern and efficient air force, and Russia has the world’s worst air defense, so we can likely bomb military installations on the Russian side.
– Sweden has the world’s stealthiest submarines. The Russian Baltic fleet quickly loses its advantage.
– By air, we can strike back on a broad front. We don’t just need to strike near the areas Ry attacked. We can needle-strike all the way from the Black Sea to Murmansk.
– Perhaps China can see its opportunity to “increase its influence” in eastern Russia, if everything that goes bang has been moved towards Europe’s border.
There is surely much more for and against.
The Russian nuclear weapons will surely be rattled, which will certainly make some in NATO nervous, but there hasn’t been much talk about them lately, even though Ukraine has been bombing all over Russia.
The US’s influence depends on Trump’s mood, but we cannot count on any involvement on the EU’s side. However, he can slow down arms deliveries, “as he needs them himself,” as well as share information with the Russians, and slow down information to Europe. True to his habit, Trump will probably blame the attack on the victim, like. Kaija Kallas’ hate rhetoric.
Hungary (if Orban’s pack is still there) will say they are neutral and then help the Russians as much as they can.
Yes, something like that in brief is what I think could happen.
Good arguments on both sides.👍
I think that “the long game” is to break up NATO… and then it is enough with an effort that is sufficiently comprehensive and clear to activate article 5, but at the same time motivated by some kind of false flag that allows them to blame it on “being attacked first”. Then they seek help from the fifth column on the inside to ensure that countries like Hungary and the USA do not respond to article 5. Then the alliance is dead, especially if the USA does not respond…
It became terribly bad with bold text 😐
Yes, I notice that every time I look in the mirror! 😄
yes, the constant dieting and exercising that never yields results and the increasingly deeper relapses – a man over 45’s standard life?
Now I have to reply about the Green Party on Substack and then post tomorrow’s post – disappearing for a while MXT if you want to work for free again for almost no appreciation as we are apparently expected to do.
Done with that, here it was calm I saw then I move on to tomorrow’s post.
Now Trump has given a new deadline of an additional 10 days.
Then we have the 60-day limit from the congressional decision coming up in just over 30 days…
So… someone seems to have now opened the blue cabinet and found what’s causing the smell… let’s see if Iran manages to find a way to bring in the notorious fan…
Hm. Interesting. It was expected, but maybe not a whole 10 days. Perhaps someone in the circle of acquaintances has gone all in on the stock market and needs an upturn. Or is Iran involved in some royal bribe. Or could it be that he needs more time to prepare for a ground invasion. It’s probably something special, because I don’t think the mullahs have given in on any of their demands.
My interpretation is that Trump no longer has the energy to come up with new excuses at the same pace… he needs a break… and in 10 days, he can repeat the same rhetoric about negotiations all the time instead of coming up with new things every other day…
We’ll see… maybe his “out” will be that Congress blocks further hostilities after 60 days…? Then he has someone to blame in domestic politics as well….
Then the question remains how Iran will respond to such a forced de-escalation from the USA…
Isn’t it just so simple that he thought the marines he sent there would arrive and be ready to be deployed on the 27th, but then they are just “in the area”, then they have to get to the right place and prepare, etc…
Russian delegation in Washington
🎥 Kyrylo Budanov: “The third world war has been going on for a long time and it started in Ukraine.”
I will add that the kinetic war, which was started by Russia in Ukraine, has now migrated to Iran.
The Pentagon knows this, briefs on it, but can’t get beyond a President who calls Zelensky a dictator while holding the door open for Putin.
We can’t send our troops into battle against the same Russian-designed drones being used to kill Ukrainians.
This makes no sense anymore and we all need to start calling it out.
🎥 Kyrylo Budanov: “The third world war has been going on for a long time and it started in Ukraine.”
I will add that the kinetic war, which was started by Russia in Ukraine, has now migrated to Iran.
The Pentagon knows this, briefs on it, but can’t get beyond a President who calls Zelensky a dictator while holding the door open for Putin.
We can’t send our troops into battle against the same Russian-designed drones being used to kill Ukrainians.
This makes no sense anymore and we all need to start calling it out.
The leaf has been lifted from the mouth.
Good morning!
1000 KWIA
1 Tank
9 AFVs
69 Artillery systems
2 MLRS
2222 UAVs
217 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
https://bsky.app/profile/matsextrude.bsky.social/post/3mhzff6tjb222
Slava Ukraini
AFU🇺🇦: “⚡️ Attack on the oil refinery in Kirishi in the Leningrad region in Russia
⚡️ During the night of March 26, units from the Ukrainian armed forces carried out an attack on the oil refinery in Kirishi (city of Kirishi, Leningrad region, Russia).
According to preliminary information, a fire has broken out at the facility – facilities for primary oil refining and two tanks are on fire.
The outcome of the attack and the extent of the damage are being investigated.
The Kirishi refinery is one of the three largest oil refineries in Russia. The facility has an installed capacity of approximately 20-21 million tons of oil per year. The facility accounts for over 6% of the total oil refining in the attacking country.
The facility’s capacity is used for the production of a wide range of oil products, especially fuel used to meet the needs of the attacking state’s armed forces.
Ukrainian defense forces will continue with systematic measures to reduce the Russian Federation’s military and economic potential and weaken the capabilities to supply the occupation forces. The attacks will continue until the terrorist state completely refrains from armed aggression against Ukraine.
💥 To be continued! Honor to Ukraine! 🇺🇦”
👍💥🔥✊
AFU🇺🇦: “🇪🇺 🇺🇦 Europe’s security begins in Ukraine – financing of Ukraine’s defense / Europe’s security is inseparable from Ukraine’s security – resources for Ukraine’s defense
69.3 billion euros – the extent of military support to Ukraine from the EU and member states. This includes:
• 6.1 billion euros from the European Peace Fund
In addition:
• Extra revenue – surplus generated from frozen Russian assets, amounting to 3.4 billion euros, of which 1.5 billion euros have been allocated to Ukraine’s defense industry.
Military support from the EU and member states
Since the very first days of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, the EU and its member states have provided military support to Ukraine. This has been made possible thanks to a rapid mobilization of the European Peace Fund – an off-budget instrument that has enabled the financing of deliveries of military and defense equipment to Ukraine’s armed forces.
Through the European Peace Fund, the EU finances deliveries of lethal and non-lethal military equipment as well as material and technical supplies, including:
• personal protective equipment
• armored vehicles
• air defense equipment
• artillery systems, ammunition, and missiles
• tanks
• ambulances
• first aid kits
• fuel
This has strengthened Ukraine’s ability to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Norway has supported EU’s efforts with a contribution of 122 million euros.
Furthermore, in March 2024, the EU decided to increase the financial ceiling for the European Peace Fund by 5 billion euros by establishing a special fund to support Ukraine.
EU’s support is carried out in close coordination with partners, especially with NATO.
🇪🇺 🇺🇦 #ЗСУ are grateful for support and assistance from #Europe / #AFU are grateful for #Europe support and help
Today, Europe’s security is inseparable from Ukraine’s security – funds for Ukraine’s defense.
69.7 billion euros in military support to Ukraine from the EU and member states
This includes:
6.1 billion euros from the European Peace Facility
In addition
Profit surplus – extraordinary revenue from frozen Russian assets amounting to 3.4 billion euros, of which 1.5 billion euros were invested in the Ukrainian defense industry.
Since the very first days of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, the EU and its member states have provided military support to Ukraine. This has been made possible, among other things, thanks to the rapid mobilization of the European Peace Facility, an off-budget instrument that has enabled the financing of deliveries of military and defense equipment to Ukraine’s armed forces.
Through the European Peace Facility, the EU finances deliveries of lethal and non-lethal military equipment and supplies, such as:
personal protective equipment
personnel carriers
air defense resources
artillery systems, ammunition, and missiles
tanks
ambulances
first aid kits
fuel
This has strengthened Ukraine’s ability to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Norway has supported EU’s actions with a contribution of 122 million euros.
Furthermore, in March 2024, the EU decided to increase the financial ceiling for the European Peace Facility by 5 billion euros by establishing a special support fund for Ukraine.
Text and photo: © European Union European External Action Service – EEAS
https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/eu-military-defence-support-ukraine_en
#EUMAM_Ukraine #EUMAMU #РазомМиЄвропа #TogetherWeAreEurope #EUUA #EUUAStrongerTogether #StandWithUkraine
European Parliament European Commission Council of the European Union European External Action Service – EEAS European Union in Ukraine”
Kurva