Ukraine daily update March 12, 2026

The post about the global situation will be published tomorrow.

If you have been following the reporting as you should, you know that the Russian team has had to rely on their special forces and send VDV and naval infantry to the area around Huyliapole, where Ukraine has carried out a series of offensive operations resulting in local breakthroughs in the defense lines.

Deepstatemap is far behind, and in places like Stepnohirsk (which is not the Huyliapole area at all), Ukraine is clearing up the town, but Deepstatemap has a disputed area far north of the town.

Project Owl has recently cleaned up the unit maps, which was welcomed.

This means that Ukraine’s strategic offensive reserves will soon carry out offensive operations against the best RU can deploy – the special forces that have been resting from the VDV and naval infantry.

Yes, there are also Spetsnaz and reconnaissance, but they fall into the same overall category.

In addition, if RU were to send in FSB, GRU, or better Rosgvardia forces, they would theoretically be better (but with less combat experience!), but you will never see them as they are needed for the upcoming domestic power struggle.

Once this power struggle plays out, we will have a clear picture of how the war will unfold – either the VDV and naval infantry will halt the offensive, or it will be a 1:5 slaughter (again), and we will know what the future holds.

Trump has just lifted the oil sanctions against Russia, with the always willing India ready to profit from Ukraine’s demise.

Most likely, Trump will withhold the little equipment he still sells to Ukraine – like those 3500 robots that Russia probably doesn’t want in their factories at all.

Can he influence Europe much more?

Probably not really, apparently we are now sending Gripen, so the no Biden gave us no longer applies, and among the last things Russia wants to see in Ukraine are 150 Gripen.

Which is a testament to our defense industry – 122, CV90, Archer, and Gripen all received top marks from Ukraine, and besides sending the best we have from emergency stockpiles or prioritizing, no other countries have received top marks in everything. Best in class.

The Germans’ Panzerhaubitze 2000 was too technologically complicated, the Abrams too heavy and prone to breakdowns, so it goes on.

The CV90 is formidable, but Bradleys have also proven to be excellent, right?

If there’s anything we should preserve, it’s our defense industry; it’s sad that we’ve sold off a lot.

Anyway, the Huliyapole area has low RU defense density, and UA has just liberated Ternove – it’s very open terrain, so if they break through RU defenses and try to defend in open terrain under pressured command, good luck, Russian bastards.

The area RU has advanced in, and when they plan an offensive, they do not prepare well for defense other than building a comfortable bunker for the commanders.

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I’m starting to think a bit – on October 7, 2023, there is a lot of anecdotal evidence that warnings came in beforehand about something brewing and when the attack would start, alarms went off, but no action was taken as crucial border posts were unmanned.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/systemic-failure-how-nahal-oz-base-850-meters-from-gaza-yet-utterly-vulnerable-fell-to-hamas

Considering how things have developed since then and that Iran is on the verge of collapse, which is crucial for Israel, there is at least reason for a discussion about this, I think – and Israel has had that discussion, but usually not much comes out of it in times of martial law and unrest when everything falls under national security and can be suppressed.

On October 7, Hamas (+ Russia) were apparently involved, and Iran wasn’t entirely on board as Hezbollah missed the opportunity. But never miss a good crisis, Netanyahu has likely used the attack as leverage to get to this point. If all the terrorists had died before crossing the border, we wouldn’t be here where Israel convinced the USA to strike down Iran.

As with all major decisions when soldiers are to be sacrificed or taxpayers are to be mobilized, it’s best done with images of suffering children and heart-wrenching stories of misdeeds.

We know that Russia was involved; the tunnels were filled with Russian equipment, and during the attack, voices can be heard shouting in Russian on film – it’s indisputable.

Hamas was also in Moscow in June 2023 and during the summer, and cash flows from Russia to Hamas were logged during the summer.

If Netanyahu seized the opportunity in the air, it wouldn’t be the first time in world history that a country used a crisis or created a false flag, but I lean towards Netanyahu seizing the opportunity.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67958260

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/28/israeli-military-had-warning-of-hamas-training-for-attack-reports-say

By the way, Israel is not the country that ignores verifiable information on moving images with today’s date, using the excuse that the opponent probably doesn’t want war after several such mistakes in the past – they have almost ingrained it in their DNA if I understand correctly?

One more troubling thing – Israel has targeted Iran’s oil infrastructure, and the USA has targeted three Iranian oil tankers. The oil price immediately spiked, then dropped, and then rose again.

Do you remember the 2008 crisis when the oil price went over $200 USD, by the way?

This gives Iran legitimacy to start targeting oil infrastructure in MENA – after all, the laws of war apply, and proportional retaliation.

The logic behind this is hard to see beyond the fact that the USA is denying oil to the EU and China?

The quick-witted realize that the USA is now fueling the negative consequences of the conflict rather than being restrained, and they blame Israel.

Trying to overthrow the regime by burning their oil fields is not best for anyone, not even the USA or Israel – any suggestions why?

When both the USA and Israel were simultaneously targeting these types of targets, there is a thought behind it.

I have some other posts in progress, but it’s worth noting that in the UK, they have amended their HMF law and further legislation so that it now (can!) trump freedom of speech, and then they want to remove juries from trials.

Just like in Sweden, they have gone far beyond the original idea of the law, and it is being used to protect intolerance, hate, and threats from legitimate criticism, completely turning it upside down.

“I can hate as much as I want and be intolerant, but you can’t criticize me for it” – that’s how it’s starting to look for the privileged groups covered by the new definition.

Because you can’t both hate, threaten, and be a victim, but that’s how the law is being applied, which the silent majority in Europe is starting to notice.

We complain a lot about the USA, but there are things happening here too, and it’s not good at all.

It was close that chatcontrol 2.0 was passed in the EU, and if we get blasphemy laws and secret trials on top of that, we are not far from what we claim to fight against – all to save the children and the vulnerable, of course.

The step in the UK to make it illegal to criticize politicians is not a huge one, and it’s surely something politicians consider as citizens become increasingly angry about the consequences of terrible policies 😀

I’m going to start addressing this as it is important because it shows how easy it is to start dismantling well-functioning systems once you decide to do so.

The downside, of course, is that one day the silent majority will have had enough, but until that day, one lives in the illusion that they can do whatever they want because the rest of us are tolerant.

With a little luck, all of this will deflate if Iran and Russia fall, who knows.

Anyway – those who say that Russia is in favor of the Iran war are wrong, right now Ukraine is gaining 10,000 brownie points globally for helping MENA with interceptor drones and RU’s most important ally after China disappeared.

China and Russia have also made a huge mistake – instead of the USA getting a bunch of ships and planes sunk/shot down that would prevent them from further waging war, they have essentially lost nothing in eliminating Iran. The clowns missed their chance to strike first, and they have to live with that.

The question everyone should grapple with – is the USA-Iran situation a step in global escalation or is it a wet blanket over global escalation?

Considering the epic mistake of not striking first, this must be a negative, right?

It is quite clear that the USA-Russia are coordinating.

It is also clear that China-USA are not coordinating.

But China can take advantage when the USA is busy, or maybe they have been scared into passivity – we simply have to wait and see.

Just as China is now very cornered, RU is very cornered in Ukraine, and you saw what Iran did when they were cornered.

Trump said that the USA was surprised by Iran’s retaliation, so they clearly haven’t read Johan No.1, who predicted that they would go down in one last big fireworks display.

Low odds – the more cornered the evil team becomes, the higher the risk of arrows of escalation in an unexpected direction.

At least now the Balts are warning that they are starting to feel worried about Russia, and those who remember Trump’s rants know that he won’t lift a finger for the Baltics – I bet it’s part of a USA-RU agreement.

The day our mechanized brigades are in the Baltics, we are ready to defend them, but not a second before.

We can assume that Russia and China are considering whether they can regain the initiative.

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