Want to try to summarize Kursk before we move on.
First, the North Koreans’ disastrous wedge where they crossed the river, got lost in the forest, died in numbers, and carried out some kind of intrusion to the border which was portrayed as a major threat. A major threat for the North Koreans at least before they died.
On March 7, the first SALTINT revealed that the USA assisted RU with target acquisition, which turned out to be locating Starlink. Don’t forget that Musk no longer controls Starlink, the US military does.
On March 8, I dismissed the NK attack in Kursk as a nothing-burger and stuck to it for a few days – the reason being that the wedge was not threatening in any way – there was a maintenance road open and NK soldiers died in droves.
Since March 10, I saw that UA had retreated from Kursk and raised the question on johanno1.se and Bluesky – it was clear with the grouping of the units, might have changed a bit now maybe.
At the same time, Sirsky came out strong and said they wouldn’t retreat – the purpose was to protect the retreat, we know that now in hindsight.
The LNG pipeline crawling went completely haywire for RU – so they lost 800 elite soldiers in this attempt to repeat Avdiivka 😶
The wildest thing of all is that most of them inhaled dangerous gases in the tunnel and went and died – imagine if any other country in the world had killed 800 elite soldiers out of sheer incompetence, a big deal to say the least but not in Russia.
Here is my final analysis of Kursk and the likelihood that this is accurate is high –
Trump has refused to mention Kursk with a single word. Behind closed doors, Trump has demanded that UA leave Kursk because Russia demanded it. Easy to understand why, directly embarrassing for Putin there.
Several things happened in one sweep –
-The USA halted the information flow to Ukraine
-The USA halted all material deliveries, everything.
-Ukraine suspected that RU could lock onto their starlinks in Kursk and combat them.
-F-16 locked certain functions, probably so that RU could resume FAB bombing in Kursk.
-More North Koreans, +3000, arrived in Kursk.
-RU carried out long-planned attacks.
Over a week, RU carried out two catastrophic but long-planned attacks on Kursk where they tried to repeat Avdiivka. Ukraine presumably knocked out a couple of thousand and had the situation under control.
This coincides with the USA pulling the rug out from under Ukraine completely in the area, BUT it should not have had such a significant impact on the situation that Ukraine needed to leave.
RU also carried out one of the largest operations with robots that UA suddenly had a harder time defending against. The operation that had been planned for weeks came the day after the USA stopped all warning systems to Ukraine.
Ukraine could have held Kursk and they should have opened more attack vectors into Russia already.
The reason they left Kursk was political and not military in my assessment.
RU thus got Kursk back completely free – Putin talked down the West (USA).
I have been waiting for months now for the next offensive into Russia – politically locked is my assessment there as well.
Trump sticks to his style and doesn’t change much about Biden’s red cards… I am quite disappointed but there is another dimension to this 5D chess that Trump is supposed to play to save the world according to some (still).
Between trying to oust Zelensky and force a re-election, he has also ensured that Ukraine suffers another “defeat” on the battlefield and Zelensky is solely responsible for Kursk as it was a political offensive to begin with that the command was lukewarm about.
Zelensky has always been clear that it was a negotiating card in future talks but Trump has refused to play fair and simply killed that card.
This is something that RU’s subversive activities will drive in their eternal attempts to oust Zelensky.
Trump is actively trying to undermine Zelensky – it is quite clear to me.
Now, I may be naive, but I have felt that the EU should break away from this and fully support Ukraine. Macron and Starmer did it halfway and their ceasefire that didn’t apply on the ground was not approved 😊
Then Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the USA, and China have now started to make deals with Ukraine but the EU is conspicuously absent. Ukraine is forced to give away pieces of its land to get the support they need. If the EU had stepped in and given everything, Ukraine would have also turned to us in the EU.
So how do our leaders feel today when Ukraine left Kursk?
I don’t know because no one mentions it, just like Trump.
One becomes depressed by the TOTAL disregard the West has shown in this war actually.
Now onto the next item on the agenda –
Ukraine has approved a 30-day ceasefire across the entire area and it will be extended if both parties agree, as confirmed yesterday.
In my opinion, Ukraine has also fulfilled its part of the agreement and left Kursk.
And the USA has promised to resume all support and confirmed that it has done so. If they blatantly lie, we will know this within two weeks.
Russia immediately refused (of course) and I saw this as cleverly negotiated by Ukraine because now the ball is in Putin-Trump’s court.
And we know that Russia will break this immediately because they cannot control all front commanders, impossible.
But…
How did Trump handle Kursk?
So how will he handle the ceasefire and ensuring it is followed?
He will ignore all RU violations of the ceasefire and then if Ukraine fires a single shot over the line, he will immediately threaten to withdraw all support – my guess.
So it’s not advantageous for Ukraine at all now because this is rigged.
Which ultimately disadvantages the EU – VERY poorly negotiated by the EU here, extremely poorly – assuming that we in the EU are not playing 5D chess that I don’t understand yet.
For me, it looks like this now –
-Trump undermines Zelensky so the risk is high that we will have political chaos in Ukraine. Ultimately, a crashed Ukraine would mean that we no longer have them as a buffer against Russia, that Putin can position the entire army against the EU border, and that a million unemployed UA soldiers become the EU’s new unstoppable mafia as a thank you for not supporting them.
The latter will also be maximally exploited in RU’s subversive activities.
So, high risk, and the question is whether the EU is even working with a risk list at all here.
The downside for the USA is zero – they want a Russia that doesn’t crash and if the EU gets a cold war, we are preoccupied with that in the EU and controllable, and the USA will sell weapons, LNG, and oil to us at inflated prices for another 70 years. It’s almost preferable for the USA actually.
If Trump can also throw in being the first back and snatch a huge amount of trade deals with Russia before the EU, it’s also advantageous for the USA.
-Then I have been warning for a while that in September 2025, it will hit the EU, provided that Russia has the Ukraine war under control – what do you think a ceasefire means for Putin in terms of having the Ukraine war under control?
Now RU will carry out an extremely violent subversive activity in Ukraine where they will try to prevent the country from restarting offensive operations.
And then it IS difficult when RU has had a month to consolidate.
The northern front will be fortified by North Koreans to a large extent now that Kursk has been returned, and RU will then release over 60,000 of its better units.
We are still waiting for the other 70,000 in NK 11th AC, and they will now arrive when there is no longer any risk of death – they are not in Ukraine, so politically not such a hot potato, and they will be an effective block for future Kursk offensives.
Additionally, Trump + Putin will sell it as a peacekeeping force.
In September 2025, it is Zapad 2025 which will be just under 13,000, so no international observers are needed.
RU has now released 60,000 from Kursk and according to UA, they have a strategic reserve of 150,000 in two army corps.
Most of the new equipment has gone to these army corps, and they are trained by veterans from the war in Ukraine who have work experience of the 2025 warfare.
This year’s little Russian project is to challenge NATO.
Do you know why we know that?
Because Russia says it, Ukraine says it, and several countries in the EU have raised their alert levels.
I laid out the entire battle plan here a few days ago, but now an enormous subversive activity will roll out over Europe to begin with.
We are now in the middle of March, and by September at the latest, a Russian attack over the border will occur somewhere in the Baltics, the purpose is to take a few tens of kilometers, park defensively, and wait for a NATO/EU response.
NATO will not act – I can GUARANTEE you that Trump will not send troops to retake territory in eastern Estonia, 100% sure of that.
So we in the EU now have, if Ukraine does not continue its offensive operations, two very bad choices, one of which must be decided –
-to defend in eastern Baltics and wait for a Russian attack on us.
-decide to retake territory in the Baltics if we have been too slow and RU managed to snatch it from under our noses.
IN a few months, we will see if Europe’s sons and daughters are ready to die in eastern Baltics, because die they will do in large numbers.
The least bad option would be if RU feels that the threshold is too high and chooses to only send an absolute cloud of indirect capabilities over the units in the east, but what is the likelihood that we will have over 40,000 in defense in the CURRENT ATTACK AREA by September – how big is it?
The border of the Baltics with RU and Belarus is longer than what UA has to defend today, and you know as well as I do that half a million barely cut it.
The Balts have STARTED building their mine lines against RU… they started in 2025.
Therefore, there is a high probability that an area RU chooses to attack is defended by a reduced brigade at best, and then they will have 150,000 + 60,000 Russians against them.
This reduced brigade has not participated in the 2025 war at all but has had time to prepare defensively.
FAB, artillery, and drones will rain down on them, and then RU will carry out the type of attack that has been difficult for UA to handle with infiltration and “swarming” (yes, a military term).
Yes, the EU must know this now, and we should have about thirty brigades on their way to the Baltics right now, but we don’t, so the risk is very real.
Throughout the EU, brigades should already be in training with UA instructors, but they are not.
Estonia is perhaps the easiest to defend of all three, so if I had to guess, they will strike to the north or south of the Estonia-Latvia border.
In Lithuania, the EU brigades will be stationed because that is what Poland will demand. The entire Belarusian defense force + North Koreans and possibly Chinese will be deployed along the border with Poland and Lithuania – mark my words.
Then secondary RU units will be stationed along the border with Finland.
Both countries will not be able to spare troops, and the EU will have to waste brigades in Lithuania.
Then they will try to advance until they hold dominant terrain if they can, and then they will go on the defensive, assuming the defense does not completely collapse, but they have burned themselves a bit in eastern Ukraine and should be cautious about bringing their dress uniforms and booking tables at all restaurants in Vilnius this time.
Actually, the area below would not be a bad choice for this little NATO test, right?
Forest, good defensive terrain, and can attack from three directions – as I said, September 2025…
So infinitely fun that the area has been a nature reserve since 1998 – surely not allowed to be mined or anything 🤣
I can’t find any information about the area, but it wouldn’t surprise me if environmental movements in the West have been instrumental in protecting the frogs – it would be fun if that could be confirmed.
There you have the area where NATO will be tested in 2025, what name have those Russian devils given the operation?
We have never been this close to the situation spiraling out of control, and at least I am very curious about what China will do in the future.
By now, you know my view on things since around 2022 – Russia must be turned inward, and all agencies must start fighting each other for power.
Only then can we truly achieve peace in our time.
Trump is actively working against us reaching that point, and many did so in 2022-2023 when I aired my thoughts on the matter – it wasn’t quite socially acceptable to want that.
And up until 2025, the EU leaders have also seen it as a less favorable option. When Lukashenko proudly declared that the CIA and MI6 congratulated him on thwarting the Vodka run, one becomes tearful. It is, of course, true and not something we should hear, but in line with how the West perceived the war.
Until at least quite recently, EU leaders believed that the worst that could happen would be for Ukraine to be forced to the negotiating table and then eternal peace would follow, at least until late autumn.
One last point – for those of you who believe that Ukraine is now quickly moving its brigades inside the circle faster than RU outside the circle and striking immediately – what do you think the 30-day ceasefire is for? Trump has thought of everything, and the only thing is if Putin completely deviates from the script, perhaps?
This is just as rigged today as it was in 2022 – 2023, and it’s time for the EU to stand up now because soon we will be left holding the whole mess, and the USA will be laughing at us.
However, there are early signs that Trump might lead the USA out of this on top – Canada gave up, Zelensky gave up, Putin will play along, China might stay on the sidelines, and the price of eggs has dropped in the USA?
It seems like we are just months away from a cold war, which will greatly benefit the USA at the expense of the EU.
My hope now lies in Ukraine actually starting to carry out offensive operations seriously until there is some form of ceasefire, but it COULD absolutely be that Trump has already anticipated it and preemptively said no to it, we’ll see…
If you liked the post, feel free to share it on your channels.
If you want a fun comment section that is really picking up steam and is no longer just me talking it up on Bluesky – johanno1.se.
The level of comments is high, I can promise you – you learn something new every day.
I recommend everyone who still comments on Substack or Bluesky to switch over to that thread instead – then your grandchildren will read your historical archive and start liking you. I also don’t have time to respond there as I’m starting to get busy at work.
On Substack, feel free to become paying subscribers, even those of you who already follow, and it’s great to see that some find it worth reading, appreciate all the work put into this, and took the step to subscribe 👍
https://bsky.app/profile/johanno1.bsky.social
Then there are the Swedish rescuers, the ones I have been in contact with who are quietly working and delivering supplies to Ukraine. You don’t see them constantly on social media because they are instead working to support Ukraine.
Don't forget to donate, Ukraine's cause is ours! Support Ukraine!
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Hover over your name at the top right, select edit profile, and you will then find the setting under the language settings heading.
The Russian losses in Ukraine on 2025-03-13
1200 KWIA
1 Tank
2 APVs
19 Artillery systems
71 UAVs
81 Vehicles and Fuel tanks
Unusually little hardware.
(One could almost believe that we already have a 30-day ceasefire but there are still losses for the Russians as they can’t refrain from attacking).
Either a bad day for caterpillar feet (mud, downpour – note biathlon canceled in Slovenia due to rain) or a bad day for drones (whatever it may be – fog/wind?)..
Clay can certainly have a big impact. Fog, strong winds, and precipitation are probably not ideal for drones, but I’m not sure about the weather conditions.
There may also be gaps in the reporting, that they haven’t managed to put all the numbers together, or maybe to avoid giving out too much information.
We’ll see how it looks tomorrow.
👍👍👍
AFU: “In total, 138 combat clashes were recorded during the past day. According to information, yesterday the enemy launched two rockets and 98 air strikes at the positions of Ukrainian units and settlements, using three missiles and dropping 150 CAB. In addition, he carried out more than five thousand two hundred shells, including 147 – from jet fire systems and deployed 2,283 kamikaze drones for impact.”
“Britain and France discuss strikes on Russia if ceasefire is violated, – AP.
▪️Peacekeepers in Ukraine. In the event of a war settlement, the EU may deploy peacekeepers. They may be allowed to strike Russian troops if they violate the ceasefire;” (Stole this from ERIK 14).
https://bsky.app/profile/militarynewsua.bsky.social/post/3lkaj5pyap22v
Will not happen
Operational information as of 08.00 on 13.03.2025 on the Russian invasion
138 combats:
#Kharkiv 2
#Kupyansk 8
#Lyman 7
#Siversky 9
#Kramatorsk 1
#Toretsk 19💥
#Pokrovsk 45💥💥💥↘️
#Novopavlivka 10💥
#Huliaipil 8
#Orikhivsk 6
#Kursk 17💥
Over the past day, the missile troops and artillery of the AFU🇺🇦 hit 14 areas of concentration of weapons and military equipment and two artillery units of the AFRF🇷🇺.
👍
Thank you 205
👍👍👍
Interesting thoughts about Kursk, even if it is speculative, it may be entirely or partially true (but it could also be a coincidence).
If Ukraine could have held Kursk without any problems, I don’t think they would have given up the area.
The next part, speculations about what will happen in September, is interesting.
Even if Russia feels they have momentum and support from the USA, I wonder if they really have enough equipment and manpower to feel it’s worth challenging NATO. I think they need some time. The interesting part is whether there will be peace or a long-lasting ceasefire, will Russia continue as it is now, continuing to invest all their money in the war industry, or will they try to return to normal?
Depending on what they do, we will know if they will attack someone, somewhere. They are definitely not arming because they are afraid of being attacked. The war in Ukraine has shown just how unwilling many of the leaders are to even let Ukraine attack Russia.
If they continue to arm, your scenario will probably be able to come true, even if it may take a year or two or happen in September.
If the USA fully supports Russia so they know they have nothing to worry about from them, knowing they only have Europe to fight against, and if they also receive steady and increased income from the USA, they will be able to accelerate production and recruitment.
I probably agree with Mats here that it is not entirely easy to fix things for the Russians right now. Even if they wanted to. I am thinking, among other things, about whispers of mobilization in Russia.
Present:
1. Russians do not want to be the last to die in the war with Ukraine before “peace,” hence low motivation among those present and low influx of new volunteer cowards.
2. The lack of combatants leads to discussions about mobilization – the last time it was tried, it went to hell. And the Russians are already on the brink of an economic collapse.
How would the Russian population react to the leadership wanting to attack Lithuania?
– They smell the end of the war, everything is misery economically, and everyone knows someone who has disappeared in Ukraine.
– with a ceasefire in Ukraine, the last excuse of “missing/can’t contact your relatives but definitely not dead” disappears.
– and then manage to sell a new war??? In a new place??
I think it will be difficult. Very difficult.
Putin is afraid of one thing: losing control domestically.
I believe that the most effective way to deter foolishness in September is a massive influence campaign / informing the Russian population that it is a bad idea. Anticipate whatever nonsense Putin is thinking of spinning to justify an attack. (Like Lithuanians eat Russian children – here is the evidence.)
Then, absolutely of course, in combination with military deterrence by starting to strategically place units. Mobilize. And add some confusing disinformation so the Russians do not know exactly what or who is where.
I can also imagine that Svalbard is closer at hand than Latvia if the Russian devils want to test NATO.
Putin has refused to start negotiating if IA was still in Kursk – it’s on film from Peskov and others.
Has Trump even mentioned Kursk?
September 2025 – even if a few more would guess like you, it is our duty to act as if it will happen. We simply assume that.
If there are 250,000 in brigades there come September, then of course nothing will happen.
Absolut! Rusta as if it will definitely happen. But at the same time, do everything to push the country over the edge towards the implosion that will come sooner or later. It would undoubtedly be a more pleasant outcome for “everyone else”.
Putin has probably told Trump that he is not ready to negotiate peace and a ceasefire until Ukraine leaves Kursk. And Trump bought it. UA may already have been pressured in Kursk.
Exactly like that
Thank you johanno1, a gloomy but sober description of the risks that Europe must now deal with (it’s not Friday yet).
Regarding Kursk, I believe that it is correct and Ukraine left to regain support and intelligence. There is also a possibly additional dimension. Taking Europe into account, I believe that a withdrawal from Kursk makes it easier for Europe to implement some form of security measure in the future.
It depends on the political reality where a subversive storm could be expected to break out if Europe in any form put boots on the ground while Kursk was still there. Our sons and daughters would die for Ukraine to continue conquering Russian territory undisturbed, etc.
Kursk in the current situation where the USA is forcing Ukraine to negotiate has simply played out, and as the cards are laid out now, Kursk can only be repeated if Ukraine knows that Europe can deliver what will disappear if the USA withdraws. So it’s just as good to exchange the card for something that has value today (American support).
Then Starlink… I don’t think Starlink ever worked in Kursk, I remember it was clear early in the attack (Starlink can only be used on Ukrainian territory). If the USA has done anything here, it is to interrupt the delivery of sigint and shut down critical systems on the F16. Bad enough and probably enough for the Moscow empire to gain the upper hand through its own sigint capacity (satellites, A50 mainstay) and significant numbers. And by Ukraine deciding to leave.
I still think China’s move is super interesting and I wonder if the USA has perceived the signal or if Trump will continue to rampage relations with Canada and Europe. The situation in Canada is toxic, the newly elected government has (unintelligently) informed Europe’s leaders through its official channels that Canada’s integrity as a nation is threatened by the USA. One reflection is that such actions are not taken lightly and of course we have not heard much about this.
So right now, Trump has thrown the puzzle up in the air and the pieces are still on their way down.
…I believe it will be about Europe, a coalition of the willing. We probably have to see the EU as an administrative entity that at best can ensure that our support does not get stuck in bureaucracy.
I can add that Gop has now submitted a budget that, in order to pass, needs support from at least 8 of them. I believe, as I have written before, that it will be domestic politics that ultimately puts a stop to Trump.
Yes, it will be interesting to see how the budget turns out. The risk if you oppose it is that you might be blamed for paralyzing the authorities, but I guess the Democrats won’t give in easily and will make sure they at least get something they want in return. It’s usually that kind of bargaining.
One should read lynx and then one should write 👍👍👍👍👍
Then I believe Trump is very eager to put an end to this, as he sees it, shitshow. If Russia (Putin) does not agree to a ceasefire, I think Trump will ensure to strengthen Ukraine militarily to make it even more uncomfortable for the Russians. Even the Russians should be straightened out and persuaded to agree to a ceasefire.
I really hope you are right.
If the USA puts strong pressure on Russia, it might work and make them back down.
If they refuse and Ukraine gets what they need, they could instead kick out the Russians.
Personally, I am doubtful that it will turn out that way; I think Trump has decided to try to get Russia on his side.
I join the doubtful crowd! Don’t forget #krasnov <– that’s not just hot air!?
Yes, I’m on the same page – Trump really wants to be the one to put a stop to the war. Now Ukraine can be considered “handled”, the next step is to “handle” reluctant Russia – so that a ceasefire and peace agreement can be implemented as soon as possible.
Regardless of Trump, I am thoroughly disappointed in the EU’s rather lame actions. The EU must release its unilaterally anxious focus on Trump and instead put all focus on Europe’s future – how Europe should be protected in the next 20-30 years: Where is the decisiveness? Where is the concrete support for Ukraine?
I really hope you are right
Interesting and very good that we have you who sees through the noise! THANK YOU!
Does ryzZland have plans beyond Ukraine? Yes, we see that in more and more places!
I saw an interesting thing on Text TV page 116 that quickly disappeared (who cleans up at SVT? Seen it before), but I found it again online.
A Russian network linked to money laundering, especially in the construction industry, has bought plots of land both in the Stockholm archipelago and outside Västerås through relatives, as revealed by Aftonbladet. The network is also linked to the Russian Orthodox Church, which the Security Police identify as one of Russia’s platforms for intelligence work in Sweden.
– There should be a stop to Russian property acquisitions in Sweden. We should do as Finland has done, they often are ahead of us, says Member of the European Parliament Karin Karlsbro, L.
Increased control
A new bill in Finland, presented in early February, aims to restrict property purchases for individuals with citizenship in a country conducting an offensive war that could pose a threat to Finland’s security, as Russia is doing now.
Thank you for the input!
I looked into Project 2025 and Zapad 2025 a bit!
Through Project 2025, the USA can be moved away from its role as the defender of democracy. Through Zapad 2025, Russia can scare and destabilize Europe.
Everything seems quite well thought out as if it’s coming from Putin’s head?
This doesn’t look like a conspiracy theory, but seems to be a strategic reality if I look at it with JohanNo1’s sharp eyes (at least trying). If we don’t see the connections, we risk waking up in a world where democracies have weakened without even understanding what happened?
The Western world is facing a two-front attack! An internal political subversion (USA) and an external military destabilization (EU). On the surface, these threats seem separate, but they probably follow a common strategy.
Project 2025 in the USA is not just about a political change – it is a planned institutional conquest where democratic systems are weakened from within through strategic appointments, legal restructuring, and governance via ideologically loyal officials. The result? An isolated USA turning its back on Europe and NATO.
Zapad 2025 is a different kind of plan – a Russian military exercise simulating war against NATO, but also serving as a platform for hybrid warfare: cyber attacks, disinformation, and military escalation. The result? A divided and pressured Europe where democracies are forced to make concessions.
It almost hurts to pretend to be a No1 😉 Sharp mind there…
Canada has probably had its share now, but what do we see in Australia? China’s exercises between Australia and Tasmania? more? anyone?
Made a little provocative post on BlueSky (since I can’t post pictures here) 😉
https://bsky.app/profile/jahojariaho.bsky.social/post/3lkar64jd3c2n
I will make sure that it is possible to add external images in the first place, but I am a bit short on time to fix it right now.
No criticism at all! It’s going well like this!
Listen, here comes Australia and China like clockwork…uh, maybe with DHL?
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lk6fcfhzrs22
China is the important puzzle piece now – what they will do.
Very interesting
I have some information about the upcoming war in the Baltics for tomorrow that relates to what you’re writing – now everyone will think I stole it from you and you’ll become famous and get to sit on the couch on the game show “Trisslotteriet” 😭
Haha jahoNo1
Nice 🫡
Text TV – Karin Karlsbro has had a heart attack
Vladimir Putin says, according to the state news agency Tass, that the prisoners of war should be “treated as terrorists according to the laws of the Russian Federation.”
https://www.svd.se/a/ja1n9q/konflikten-mellan-ukraina-och-ryssland-har-ar-senaste-nytt
(So, according to the latest news from SvD, the notice in the link above will probably roll away eventually.)
It’s completely insane. Russia is breaking all agreements and rules, and the world just doesn’t care. Russia should even be rewarded according to Trump and his associates. One becomes desperate about the situation.
And what does the humanitarian superpower do about all this? Well, the humanitarian superpower can’t really do much about it, of course. That’s how it is with superpower fantasies that are mostly just meant to boost one’s own ego.
What Putin is saying is that prisoners of war in Kursk will be treated as terrorists, especially foreign soldiers fighting for the UA.
Of course, this is reprehensible and horrible, but perhaps not entirely unexpected from Putin.
At the same time, it is not possible to shift all the responsibility to Trump, no matter how much one dislikes him; the rest of the world also has a responsibility to put pressure on the Russian regime.
Now he got cocky when he got a free course from the USA 😡
Thank you Numero Uno for brilliant insights.
I’m pondering why Zelensky says yes to a 30-day ceasefire when he knows that RU will use the time to produce more explosives and advance troops.
Is he convinced that RU will say no and be placed in the international shame corner (how much more shameful can it get)?
Does he know that if Trump gets a Russian nyet, he will communicate clearly with Putin and take off the gloves?
Is he in desperate need of a breather himself and therefore willing to risk exposing his vulnerability?
Does he realize that Putin can’t possibly control all his alcoholic henchmen and is calmly waiting for RU to violate the agreement?
Or has Trump threatened Zelensky with reprisals if he doesn’t say okay.
The withdrawn American support was probably crucial, but the other factors you list have surely contributed to the decision.
I get the feeling that Trump harbors a personal grudge against Zelensky, which makes it all a balancing act. It’s difficult to tell the leader of a superpower to go to hell when you are at war with another superpower.
Don’t think Trump realizes the impact of everything he does against Zelenskyy will backfire almost as badly as Musk’s Hitler salute punishes teZla! Culture is an interesting thing! When you don’t understand it and lack the sense of empathy or the bigger picture, you’re playing a crazy card! Everything against Zelenskyy goes against culture because all sensible people like Zelenskyy!
He is simply forced, it is quite clear 😡
Interesting article in Kvartal about theories regarding Trump’s background as a KGB agent. Unfortunately behind a paywall.
“If the testimonies about KGB initiating a targeted cultivation of Trump under the codename Krasnov in the early 1980s are true, then it is highly likely that it was also KGB who planted the idea in Trump to aim for a career in politics.”
In the early 1980s, KGB had difficulties recruiting agents within the military.
“This, together with the ambition to influence the general perception of the Soviet Union, led to a focus on individuals with high social and economic status.”
https://kvartal.se/artiklar/donald-trump-och-agent-krasnov/
Very interesting 🧐
May need to be taken with a grain of salt, difficult to know if there are really any leaked documents, and even if they are leaked, they could still be planted.
“WP: Leaked document reveals Kremlin’s hardline Ukraine negotiation strategy
A Moscow think tank with FSB ties details Russia’s maximalist demands for Ukraine in a February document, dismissing territorial compromise and Trump’s proposed peace timeline.”
https://bsky.app/profile/euromaidanpress.bsky.social/post/3lkavpcu4lx2o
https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/03/13/wp-leaked-document-reveals-kremlins-hardline-ukraine-negotiation-strategy/
Not easy to live in a disinformation society, the Russians are pumping out disinformation to sow division between UA, USA, and EU.
Yes, I barely repeat what RU and TRUMP say anymore – too much disinformation
Its cute little red lines! 😂
“Russia does not accept the deployment of foreign armed forces in Ukraine, as it would mean an escalation of the conflict. Moscow will respond by all means,” said Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova.
Ah, another non-existent red line.”
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lkav6ozhz22u
“Ukrainska underrättelsedronar slog till mot en dold produktionsplats för UAV:er i Rysslands Kaluga-region. Attacken riktades mot en dronmonteringsanläggning i Obukhovo, belägen inom “Kaluga Gas Concrete”-anläggningen.”
For those who may not have understood why FAB has to go!
“The moment when a Russian FAB-3000 aerial bomb with the UMPK module hit the Kursk region was captured by a Ukrainian drone’s camera!”
https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3lkauydzez224
Terrible weapon and used by thousands every month
They are very expensive so I understand that you don’t give away too many (you have to calculate what can be most useful for the money and then maybe 20 GMLRS can be more useful than one ATACMS) but 40? That’s ridiculous! Probably related to the range.
“AP: Ukraine depleted its limited supply of ATACMS missiles months ago
Officials confirm Ukraine has depleted its entire supply of US-supplied long-range ATACMS missiles, which numbered fewer than 40.”
😳
What happened to the thousands of cluster-ATACMS that were ready to be scrapped and could have been donated? Was it David D who wrote about them once upon a time?
I wrote to Shashank Joshi when he was taking in reader questions for his newsletter, but I didn’t get a response.
Anyone who knows?
“Luigi Brugnaro, Mayor of the Italian city of Venice, has rewarded Yanis Tereshchenko, a Ukrainian Defender who saved the life of a tourist with a stab wound.”
“A Warrior from the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade’s reconnaissance battalion, who happened to witness a fight between two men in Venice, provided first aid to a wounded tourist from North Africa. Yanis had a first aid kit with him. He applied a tourniquet, saving the man’s life.”
https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3lkav3xxeqc2g
One can always trust Italians
Brilliant comments, will be back a bit much here in the morning
“Russian diesel exports to Africa reportedly plummet amid Ukrainian drone strikes #Ukraine”
Wonderful ✊✊💥
Saab and Radionix sign MoU for sensors and defence electronics
Saab and the Ukrainian defence company Radionix have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) regarding the intention to form a strategic collaboration relating to sensors and defence electronics, aiming to strengthen Ukraine’s defence capabilities.
Wonderful 👍
Nice 🌟!
“Russian molniya-2 drone. The video shows exactly what the drone is, then shows it missing a tank at the end. Roughly right here. 51.271907, 35.252020”
https://bsky.app/profile/andrewperpetua.bsky.social/post/3lkaxs7gunk2d
Concerning thoughts about Zapad 2025. You have outlined your thoughts on a possible scenario for the start. But what happens next? Is there anything in the cards regarding the outcome here? How will it unfold? I don’t have high hopes that the EU will suddenly do something appropriate about it. But maybe others see it from a different perspective?
Actually outcome – no point in predicting.
Putin wants – EU falls apart and NATO falls apart. New cold war in Europe.
New wars in the world
I changed my mind – will come tomorrow 😀
Russia does not want a temporary ceasefire with Ukraine, according to Putin’s foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov, as reported by the Financial Times. The 30-day ceasefire negotiated by the USA and Ukraine would “not mean anything other than a breathing space for Ukraine,” Ushakov said. Instead, Russia claims to want to negotiate a permanent peace. Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff is said to have landed in Russia earlier today to negotiate a ceasefire with Russia.
We perhaps should not read too much into this statement.
So Putin wriggled out of the death grip, by raising the stakes. Now we’ll see what the good side’s (+ possibly Trump’s) countermove will be. Is this what Zelensky foresaw when he accepted the 30-day setup? That it would never become relevant.
Interesting, there will probably be a ceasefire until September, maybe when RU attacks the Baltics?
Zelensky is forced into this.
They are completely out of HIMARS, for example.
If it’s not a world war/escalation because North Korea is helping Russia kick Ukraine out of Russia, then it probably won’t be a world war/escalation if someone helps Ukraine kick Russia out of Ukraine, right?
One might think that, but the USA does not engage in equal treatment.
18th Archer to Ukraine + Arthur ✊✊💥💥💥💥💥💥💥
https://omni.se/a/W0Bojr
Open sources suggest that Russia has lost over 437 towed artillery pieces, 869 self-propelled systems, and 451 multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS). This Swedish artillery package will hopefully boost those numbers further.
Is this what the current Archer has taken out, or how should one interpret Pål’s statement?
Good question Westley actually?
The artillery fired is well 25,000 pieces soon in total + 1400 MLRS pieces
👍👍👍
If Trump now wants peace at any cost in Ukraine/the world.
Why is he starting trade wars with everyone and threatening Canada, Mexico, and Denmark with war?
He dazzles us with thrown puzzle pieces so he can act undisturbed under the cloud. Disruption in action.
I also see Trump as an opportunist who adjusts according to the situation. There is a general plan, but the path unfolds gradually depending on the reactions of the surrounding world.
Yes, that’s how I feel too, that he works – everything is constantly changing and an enormous amount of smoke
If you cant convince them, confuse them.
Russia and Belarus cooperate on tactical nuclear weapons and do not hesitate to use them if necessary. That’s what the Russian president Vladimir Putin said during a press conference together with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko at the Kremlin. “We can use our entire arsenal of forces and resources,” said Vladimir Putin during the live broadcast press conference, claiming that NATO’s actions in the region are associated with “risks.” The statement comes ahead of the meeting with the US envoy in Moscow tonight regarding a ceasefire in Ukraine. Putin also reiterated his foreign adviser’s rejection of the US and Ukraine’s proposal for a 30-day ceasefire. Instead, Russia claims to want to negotiate a permanent peace – directly with Donald Trump, says Putin.
It feels like international media is more balanced than OMNI.
Omni is only used to see if something has happened. They can neither analyze, prioritize, be politically neutral, nor spell.
Exactly – RU needs a ceasefire in Ukraine so they can focus on the Baltics, so 30 days is not enough.
Considering three years in the Ukraine war – does anyone believe that the West will retaliate if RU smuggles in a tactical nuclear weapon and allows a known ISIS terrorist to detonate it somewhere in the West and then admits that it was stolen?
Of course they want direct contact Putin-Trump. Preferably with only interpreters present as in Helsinki. To be able to mention the kompromat or deceive/manipulate him, which doesn’t seem difficult.
All of you are very welcome to link to your Bluesky or whatever else you want to link to, or substacks or anything else.
Thank you for a sharp, but uncomfortable analysis!
But why not Suwałki directly? An enormous propaganda twist with strategic importance.
Unfortunately, Europe has not woken up! Forget NATO, Trump will not lift a finger to prevent chaos in Europe.
Suwalki will provide a strong response from the West – then we unite immediately.
A few kilometers in eastern Estonia won’t do it.
Thank you J1 for your analysis! Regarding Kursk, your reasoning is completely correct, Trump/USA is to blame. What you depict about Zapad is surely a likely scenario, very gloomy reading 😳
Alrajt – tomorrow will be the conclusion of the description of the start of the war in September 2025.
Then everything returns to normal.
The Swedish battalion follows orders regarding defense, among other things.
I get a bad feeling about the new NATO chief. I hope I am wrong.
A liberal technocrat. But it could turn out well.
Hellre ser jag en äldre general typ Ben Hodges som NATO-chef.
I would rather see an older general like Ben Hodges as NATO chief.
Dutch people. They strongly dislike the Moscow Empire after MH17 so the desire is probably there.
We must also not forget that the Netherlands is the country in the world whose economy is most dependent on cross-border trade. Tariffs are a red rag to them.
“The refinery of Tuapse, Krasnodar region, in Russia was struck by UAVs. At least one tank is burning.”
A beautiful picture:
https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3lkcsfzerc22x
And one more:
https://bsky.app/profile/tendar.bsky.social/post/3lkcsfzerc22x
“Moscow residents also heard the wonderful sounds of gasoline engines and the work of air defenses in the morning.”
Perpetua. ~1:2,5.
https://bsky.app/profile/andrewperpetua.bsky.social/post/3lkcue5kht22a
Russia: “The fall of the car market in Russia will leave 150 thousand people without work”
“At least a third of car dealerships in Russia will end the year with losses due to falling sales, and the country’s budget will lose 1 trillion rubles.”
So sad. But manageable in the bookkeeping. They can probably offset it against all the profitable Western companies they have stolen.